Categories: CountingPips Forex BlogOpinionsSoft Commodities

COT Speculators sharply decrease bullish bets in Corn, Sugar, Wheat & Soybeans

December 4, 2021

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 30th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting this week’s COT soft commodities data was the strong decrease for many of the soft commodities speculator positions. This week saw speculators cut back on bets for Sugar (-34,631 contracts), Cocoa (-23,422 contracts), Wheat (-23,195 contracts), Corn (-22,177 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-21,150 contracts).

Most of the soft commodities have been seeing strong bullish sentiment on the part of the speculators and this week’s drop marked their largest declines in some time. Corn fell by largest amount in the past twelve weeks while Sugar saw the biggest shortfall of the past six weeks. Wheat speculator bets fell this week by most in the past one-hundred and forty-four weeks, dating back to March of 2019.

The only two soft commodities that saw higher speculator positions this week were live cattle and lean hogs.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-30-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 2,033,286 14 387,234 35 -432,885 53 45,651 79
Gold 531,868 33 225,860 60 -258,603 39 32,743 57
Silver 138,003 5 38,434 61 -52,009 48 13,575 19
Copper 184,214 15 9,191 49 -15,763 49 6,572 63
Palladium 9,621 14 -2,973 2 3,277 98 -304 27
Platinum 62,385 26 8,948 15 -14,696 88 5,748 42
Natural Gas 1,269,879 36 -132,678 39 93,560 60 39,118 78
Brent 217,781 53 -15,494 93 12,212 8 3,282 54
Heating Oil 298,300 0 11,225 59 -26,834 43 15,609 52
Soybeans 671,433 15 55,317 44 -16,980 62 -38,337 8
Corn 1,405,105 5 394,912 80 -341,094 23 -53,818 12
Coffee 266,001 33 66,025 97 -69,144 6 3,119 10
Sugar 882,199 15 214,995 81 -242,927 22 27,932 42
Wheat 371,575 19 18,294 63 -10,430 31 -7,864 64

 

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CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 394,912 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -22,177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 417,089 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.8 46.1 8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.7 70.4 12.6
– Net Position: 394,912 -341,094 -53,818
– Gross Longs: 474,354 647,620 123,204
– Gross Shorts: 79,442 988,714 177,022
– Long to Short Ratio: 6.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.5 23.3 12.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.1 -17.5 2.9

 

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 214,995 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -34,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 249,626 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.1 45.6 9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.7 73.1 6.0
– Net Position: 214,995 -242,927 27,932
– Gross Longs: 274,020 402,372 81,292
– Gross Shorts: 59,025 645,299 53,360
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.8 22.1 42.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.7 0.1 -5.0

 

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 66,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,904 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.8 45.2 3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.0 71.2 2.6
– Net Position: 66,025 -69,144 3,119
– Gross Longs: 79,225 120,230 9,983
– Gross Shorts: 13,200 189,374 6,864
– Long to Short Ratio: 6.0 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 96.6 5.6 9.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.1 3.1 -7.6

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 55,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,214 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.3 58.5 6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.1 61.0 12.5
– Net Position: 55,317 -16,980 -38,337
– Gross Longs: 129,653 392,778 45,663
– Gross Shorts: 74,336 409,758 84,000
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.1 61.8 8.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.9 -1.7 -7.3

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 61,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,271 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.3 48.7 12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.9 70.0 6.2
– Net Position: 61,121 -84,386 23,265
– Gross Longs: 88,336 192,665 47,820
– Gross Shorts: 27,215 277,051 24,555
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 64.6 34.1 63.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 30.4 -29.4 0.8

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 74,654 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,461 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.1 38.0 9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.0 57.9 13.1
– Net Position: 74,654 -61,828 -12,826
– Gross Longs: 121,310 117,809 27,865
– Gross Shorts: 46,656 179,637 40,691
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.1 57.0 55.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.6 -18.2 -10.2

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 59,949 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.9 32.8 6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.7 50.9 14.8
– Net Position: 59,949 -41,359 -18,590
– Gross Longs: 98,149 75,048 15,217
– Gross Shorts: 38,200 116,407 33,807
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.1 39.9 0.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.5 8.1 -10.6

 

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 96,995 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,116 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 107,111 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.4 36.6 6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.8 79.4 3.3
– Net Position: 96,995 -104,883 7,888
– Gross Longs: 111,082 89,513 15,879
– Gross Shorts: 14,087 194,396 7,991
– Long to Short Ratio: 7.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.5 16.7 62.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.7 7.6 -34.1

 

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,497 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,422 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,925 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.0 55.0 4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.1 52.1 4.5
– Net Position: -7,497 7,141 356
– Gross Longs: 62,102 136,428 11,601
– Gross Shorts: 69,599 129,287 11,245
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.5 85.3 12.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -27.7 30.6 -44.4

 

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 18,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 35.5 8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.3 38.3 10.6
– Net Position: 18,294 -10,430 -7,864
– Gross Longs: 115,857 132,061 31,535
– Gross Shorts: 97,563 142,491 39,399
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.6 30.7 64.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.9 -27.9 8.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.







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