COT Speculators cut back on Copper bets for a sixth straight week

December 4, 2021

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 30th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting this week’s COT Metals data is the decline across the board in the metals speculator positioning. This week saw speculators pull back on bets for Gold (-8,551 contracts), Silver (-1,671 contracts), Copper (-4,531 contracts), Palladium (-1,207 contracts) and Platinum (-4,187 contracts).

Silver and Gold are in relatively strong speculator positioning at the moment with both right around their 60 percent strength score which measures the current level against the last three years. Copper positioning, on the other hand, has fallen quite a bit over the past year. Bullish net positions reached as high as +75,000 contracts in February before cooling off and trending lower over the year. Currently, Copper bets declined for a sixth straight week and dipped to a total bullish position of just 9,191 contracts this week.

Platinum continues to have a small bullish contract level while Palladium, the high flyer before the pandemic, has continued to have very low open interest and has been in a bearish position since August.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-30-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 2,033,286 14 387,234 35 -432,885 53 45,651 79
Gold 531,868 33 225,860 60 -258,603 39 32,743 57
Silver 138,003 5 38,434 61 -52,009 48 13,575 19
Copper 184,214 15 9,191 49 -15,763 49 6,572 63
Palladium 9,621 14 -2,973 2 3,277 98 -304 27
Platinum 62,385 26 8,948 15 -14,696 88 5,748 42
Natural Gas 1,269,879 36 -132,678 39 93,560 60 39,118 78
Brent 217,781 53 -15,494 93 12,212 8 3,282 54
Heating Oil 298,300 0 11,225 59 -26,834 43 15,609 52
Soybeans 671,433 15 55,317 44 -16,980 62 -38,337 8
Corn 1,405,105 5 394,912 80 -341,094 23 -53,818 12
Coffee 266,001 33 66,025 97 -69,144 6 3,119 10
Sugar 882,199 15 214,995 81 -242,927 22 27,932 42
Wheat 371,575 19 18,294 63 -10,430 31 -7,864 64

 


Gold Comex Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 225,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,551 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 234,411 net contracts.


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This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 58.3 22.5 9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.9 71.1 3.6
– Net Position: 225,860 -258,603 32,743
– Gross Longs: 310,253 119,562 51,657
– Gross Shorts: 84,393 378,165 18,914
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.6 38.7 57.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.3 -12.0 19.6

 


Silver Comex Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 38,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.4 29.1 19.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.6 66.7 9.1
– Net Position: 38,434 -52,009 13,575
– Gross Longs: 62,678 40,107 26,184
– Gross Shorts: 24,244 92,116 12,609
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.7 47.9 19.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.1 -7.3 -3.9

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,191 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,531 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,722 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.1 42.8 9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.1 51.3 5.6
– Net Position: 9,191 -15,763 6,572
– Gross Longs: 68,310 78,773 16,876
– Gross Shorts: 59,119 94,536 10,304
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.0 48.6 63.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.6 20.9 5.5

 


Platinum Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 8,948 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,135 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.5 34.5 14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.2 58.1 5.7
– Net Position: 8,948 -14,696 5,748
– Gross Longs: 28,408 21,528 9,297
– Gross Shorts: 19,460 36,224 3,549
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.3 88.0 42.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.5 9.3 -8.2

 


Palladium Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,973 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,766 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.8 53.4 13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 61.8 19.3 16.8
– Net Position: -2,973 3,277 -304
– Gross Longs: 2,968 5,136 1,317
– Gross Shorts: 5,941 1,859 1,621
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.8 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.3 98.2 26.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.1 5.0 -21.5

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.