The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.03.23

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1880
• Prev Close: 1.1933
• % chg. over the last day: +0.45%

On Friday, the euro rose slightly. The pair continues to trade in a narrow range, showing no signs of exiting it. No important economic events are expected. Jerome Powell will address Congress with a report on monetary policy. The market expects no changes in it.

• Support levels: 1.1882, 1.1834
• Resistance levels: 1.1990, 1.2113

The main scenario for EUR/USD is trading in the lateral range between 1.1882 and 1.1990. The ADX is at a minimum, which indicates no pressure in either direction. Only the position of the MACD and moving averages indicates a slight increase. But growth may be limited by the first resistance level.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to consolidate below the level of 1.1882, the pair may return to the decline to 1.1834. A breakout of 1.1990 could send the pair towards 1.2113.

• – Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Speech at 16:00 (GMT+2);
• – The US New Home Sales (Feb) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
• – FOMC Member Lael Brainard’s Speech at 16:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3834
• Prev Close: 1.3856
• % chg. over the last day: +0,16%

The volatility in the sterling has dropped significantly. The pair is trading near the moving averages on the daily chart. These are important levels where the issue of further growth or the beginning of a deep correction is decided. Important data on wages in the UK is planned for today, but it is unlikely to cause strong movements.

• Support levels: 1.3775, 1.3680
• Resistance levels: 1.3875, 1.3997

The main scenario for GBP/USD is selling. The bearish direction remains a priority in the short term as the ADX begins to show signs of increasing bearish strength. The support level was broken, and the price firmly consolidated below.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3895, the pair may resume growth to 1.3997.

• – Average Salary Including bonuses in the UK (Jan) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – The UK Jobless Claims (Feb) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – The UK industrial Orders Index (CBI) (Mar) at 13:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 108.62
• Prev Close: 108.83
• % chg. over the last day: +0,11%

In the dollar-yen pair, volatility has been declining for the sixth session in a row. Stock markets were up slightly on Monday. But they have been declining in the Asian session on Tuesday. Bond yields have stabilized. Treasuries are in the area of 1.68%.

• Support levels: 108.35, 107.08
• Resistance levels: 109.34, 109.86

The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 109.34 and 108.35. The ADX on the hourly timeframe fell to the minimum values. The MACD is near zero, and the price is near the moving averages. The instrument has lost all signs of correction.

An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing below 108.35. In this case, the pair may return to the decline to 107.08. A breakout of 109.34 will resume growth.

• – Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Speech at 16:00 (GMT+2);
• – The US New Home Sales (Feb) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
• – FOMC Member Lael Brainard’s Speech at 16:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2518
• Prev Close: 1.2520
• % chg. over the last day: +0.02%

The Canadian dollar will continue its correctional growth in light of the continuing decline in oil prices. The outlook for commodity markets remains negative in the medium term, as European countries such as Germany and France are expanding quarantine measures.

• Support levels: 1.2446, 1.2364
• Resistance levels: 1.2546, 1.2589

The main scenario is buying. The slight northern impulse on Tuesday triggered a strong ADX reaction. This is a sign that the price may break the first resistance level. The MACD is above zero, and the price is above the moving averages. By a combination of factors, there is an increasing northern signal.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold below 1.2477, the pair may resume its southern movement.