The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.03.16

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1948
• Prev Close: 1.1926
• % chg. over the last day: -0.18%

The euro continues to decline gradually, but at the same time, it does not go beyond the boundaries of the sideways range. The decrease in volatility is explained both by the lack of important economic news and the expectation of the announcement of the two-day Fed meeting results, which will begin today.

• Support levels: 1.1834, 1.1746
• Resistance levels: 1.1967, 1.1990

The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is selling. Despite low volatility, the ADX continues to react to any southern movement. The MACD has failed to enter the positive area on the upward price pullback, which indicates a high probability of the pair returning to 1.1834.

Alternative scenario: if the price gains a foothold above the level of 1.1990, the pair may return to growth to 1.2113.

• – The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany (Mar) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Eurozone (Mar) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – The US Retail Sales (m/m) (Feb) at 14:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3916
• Prev Close: 1.3898
• % chg. over the last day: -0.13%

The sterling has shown a smaller intraday decline against the dollar, and the price is holding slightly above the first support level. Fundamentally, this is a positive signal as traders are awaiting hints from the Bank of England to start scaling back the stimulus program.

• Support levels: 1.3857, 1.3775
• Resistance levels: 1.3997, 1.4224

The main scenario for GBP/USD is selling. Any decline in the pair, even a minimal one, triggers a strong ADX reaction, which indicates an increased likelihood of a breakdown of the support level. The MACD has consolidated below zero, and the price is below the moving averages. It indicates a high probability of the continuation of the bearish scenario for the sterling.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3997, it may resume growth to the year’s highs.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 109.00
• Prev Close: 109.13
• % chg. over the last day: +0.12%

The rise in risky assets and bond yields continues to support the bulls in the dollar-yen. The upward bias of the dollar index is an additional bullish driver. Medium-term expectations for growth are strengthening from a fundamental point of view.

• Support levels: 108.35, 107.08
• Resistance levels: 109.34, 109.86

The main scenario is buying. Although the ADX has declined to its minimum values on the hourly timeframe, it shows significant bullish pressure on the H4 and D1. It indicates the likelihood of an early resumption of the pair’s growth.

An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing below 108.35. In this case, the pair may return to the decline to 107.08.

• – The US Retail Sales (m/m) (Feb) at 14:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2474
• Prev Close: 1.2476
• % chg. over the last day: +0.02%

A slight correction in the oil market helped the price close above the support level. A Doji candlestick has formed on the daily chart, which may indicate a new wave of the northern correction. An additional signal for a corrective pullback is a false breakout of 1.2467.

• Support levels: 1.2519, 1.2467
• Resistance levels: 1.2592, 1.2745

The main scenario is buying. The ADX indicates the predominance of bullish potential in the pair in the short term. The MACD has returned to zero, and the price has broken the SMA 50 moving average. It indicates the likelihood of further growth towards SMA 100 in the 1.2550 area.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to consolidate below 1.2467, the pair may resume its decline to 1.2400.

• – The US Retail Sales (m/m) (Feb) at 14:30 (GMT+2).