The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.03.11

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1899
• Prev Close: 1.1928
• % chg. over the last day: +0.24%

The European currency continues its gradual growth against the dollar, which can hardly be called stable. The daily gain was two times less than on Tuesday and corresponded to the movement within the correction. An important event is expected today – the publication of the ECB’s monetary policy decision and a press conference with the president of the bank Christine Lagarde.

• Support levels: 1.1799, 1.1746
• Resistance levels: 1.1952, 1.2113

The main scenario for EUR/USD is sideways trading. The ADX has shown an insignificant reaction to the growth of the pair in the American session, which so far indicates low upside potential. The MACD has consolidated above zero and the price is above the moving averages. This may indicate a slight growth of the pair, but the upward movement technically looks limited by the first resistance level.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold above the level of 1.1952, the pair may return to growth to 1.2113. A breakdown of 1.1799 will resume southward movement.

• – The ECB’s Monetary Policy Decision (Mar) at 14:45 (GMT+2);
• – The US Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – The ECB Press Conferences at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3886
• Prev Close: 1.3932
• % chg. over the last day: +0.33%

The sterling showed approximately the same pullback against the euro, which indicated the absence of strong drivers for the price movement in either direction. The UK growth expectations support the pair. However, traders are watching with dismay the growing confrontation between the EU and UK, fueled by a trade dispute.

• Support levels: 1.3857, 1.3775
• Resistance levels: 1.3997, 1.4224

The main scenario for GBP/USD is trading sideways between 1.3997 and 1.3857. Same as for the euro, the rise in the American session caused the ADX reaction, although less significant than during the fall. This indicates a higher likelihood of an early resumption of the downward movement.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3997, it may resume growth to the highs of the year. A breakdown of 1.37857 could send the price up to 1.3775.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 108.46
• Prev Close: 108.37
• % chg. over the last day: -0.08%

The growth of risky assets does not allow the rapid development of the southern correction. Inflation indicators in the USA, which turned out to be in line with the forecasts, calmed investors down for a while. The stock market is growing again, supporting the pair.

• Support levels: 108.35, 107.08
• Resistance levels: 109.34, 109.86

The main scenario is cautious buying. In the Asian session, the price rises, while the ADX shows the strength of the bullish potential above the average. But the MACD is still near zero and the price is close to the moving averages. This indicates a decrease in volatility at least until the American session.

An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing below 108.35. In this case, the pair may return to the decline to 107.08.

• – The US Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2635
• Prev Close: 1.2615
• % chg. over the last day: -0.16%

The Bank of Canada did not surprise the market on Wednesday. In fact, the monetary regulator has left its previous statements unchanged. The Canadian dollar was trading calmly with prevailing bearish pressure on the back of a declining dollar index and rising oil prices.

• Support levels: 1.2592, 1.2467
• Resistance levels: 1.2745, 1.2845

The main scenario is trading in the sideways range 1.2745 – 1.2592. The pair is still in the weekly sideways range, and the technical indicators remain unchanged. This indicates a greater likelihood of the continuation of the flat. But, from a fundamental point of view, a rise in oil prices can provoke a breakdown of the lower boundary at any time.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold above 1.2745, the pair may resume growth to 1.2845. A breakdown of 1.2592 will resume southward movement.