The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.02.11

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2118
• Prev Close: 1.2117
• % chg. over the last day: -0.01%.

EUR/USD closed the day where it has been opened. A Doji candle is observed on the daily time frame, often signaling a stop or reversal. But it’s too early to talk about a sharp change in the trend. Technical and fundamental indicators are showing nothing like that. The yield spread of German Bonds versus American Treasuries has increased, supporting the euro bulls.

• Support levels: 1.2059, 1.1952
• Resistance levels: 1.2155, 1.2189

The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is risk-averse buying. Oddly enough, the ADX showed a positive reaction during yesterday’s minimum rise in the euro, indicating an increase of bullish potential. At the same time, the MACD dropped to almost zero. Mixed readings suggest a possible sideways range, but bulls still have the advantage.

Alternative scenario: if the price can fix below the level of 1.2116, the pair may return to 1.2072 – 1.2059.

• – Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – Fed Monetary Policy Report at 18:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3811
• Prev Close: 1.3832
• % chg. over the last day: +0.15%

There is a steady growth trend in sterling. It showed the best results among the G10 currencies against the US dollar on Wednesday. The UK Gilts yield rose to 0.490%, which is 30 basis points higher from Tuesday. This factor continues to support the British currency.

• Support levels: 1.3757, 1.3680
• Resistance levels: 1.3900

The main scenario in GBP/USD is buying. The ADX shows declining trend potential, while the MACD headed towards zero. This indicates a likely slowdown in the northern movement. However, the growth looks quite stable, while there are no signs of overbought on the higher time frames. This, in its turn, means that the first pullback may still be far away.

Alternative scenario: if the pair fixes below 1.3819, the pair may go to a correction to 1.3771 – 1.3757.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 104.58
• Prev Close: 104.58
• % chg. over the last day: -0.00%

The dollar-yen currency pair remained virtually unchanged at the end of yesterday. The stock market is calm, which is reflected in the pair. Looks like the bulls have taken a breather. Treasury yield fell to 1.15%, which is a negative factor for the yen. Accordingly, mid-term indicators demonstrate a slight advantage for the bears.

• Support levels: 104.40, 103.56
• Resistance levels: 105.68, 106.12

The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 104.95 – 104.40. During the slow decline in the European and American sessions, the ADX showed an uptrend. This indicates an increased likelihood of a break-through of the support level at 104.40. But the movement may turn out to be very slow as the trend potential is still weak.

An alternative scenario assumes the price-fixing above 104.95. In this case, the pair may rise to 105.68. A break-through of 104.40 can send the pair down to 103.56.

• – Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – Fed Monetary Policy Report at 18:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2690
• Prev Close: 1.2696
• % chg. over the last day: +0.05%

The Canadian dollar lost 0.05% to the US dollar on Wednesday. At the same time, there are no signs for stopping, and reversal observed. Oil prices continue to rise, although the movement has slowed down. Current prices for the WTI brand are above their January highs by about $4.5. This factor indicates that the pair may refresh the January 21 lows in the medium term.

• Support levels: 1.2666, 1.2590
• Resistance levels: 1.2781, 1.2844

The main scenario is sales. All technical indicators are set to south. The ADX also resumed its movement after taking a breather on Tuesday. The price bounced off the moving average SMA50 on the pullback, which indicates a confident bearish trend.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to fix above 1.2733, the pair may resume its growth to the resistance level of 1.2844.