On Friday, the USD/JPY pair advanced to 146.93, marking a three-week high as the US dollar continued to strengthen against a backdrop of escalating global trade tensions.
Recent developments in US trade policy have further unsettled markets. US President Donald Trump announced additional tariffs, including a 35% levy on Canadian imports, alongside plans for sweeping 15-20% duties on most other trading partners.
Of particular concern are US-Japan relations, following Trump’s imposition of a 25% tariff on Japanese goods this week, set to take effect on 1 August. The move has intensified bilateral strains, with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba warning of the need to reduce Japan’s reliance on the US in defence, food security, and energy.
Ishiba described the ongoing negotiations as a “battle for national interests”. At the same time, a leading Japanese think tank projected that the tariffs could shave 0.8% off Japan’s GDP in 2025, with a cumulative decline of 1.9% by 2029.
Technical Analysis: USD/JPY
H4 Chart:
The USD/JPY has established a consolidation range around 145.65, now extending to 147.17. A short-term pullback to 145.65 (testing from above) is anticipated, followed by a potential upward wave targeting 147.47 at minimum. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line firmly above zero and trending upward.
H1 Chart:
A consolidation phase near 146.41 preceded an upward breakout, completing a wave structure at 147.17. A downward correction towards 145.65 is now in view, corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, where the signal line sits at 80 and points sharply downward.
Conclusion
The yen’s weakness persists amid dollar strength and trade uncertainties, with technical indicators suggesting near-term volatility. Traders should monitor 145.65 as a key support level, while further upside towards 147.47 remains plausible.
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
US30 ↑ roughly 5% year-to-date, less than 2% away from ATH
Trump tariff drama + US CPI + big bank earnings = volatility?
JPMorgan & Goldman Sachs = almost 14% of US30 weight
US30 forecasted to move ↑ 0.8% or ↓ 1.4% post CPI
Technical levels: 45000, 44200 & 44000
A flurry of high-risk events may pump FXTM’s US30 with fresh volatility next week.
Prices have been in a range since the start of July amid the ongoing uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs. Just yesterday, Trump threatened Canada with 35% tariffs and 15% to 20% blanket levies on most trade partners.
Note: FXTM’s US30 tracks the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average index.
Top-tier data, including the US inflation report and earnings from big US banks, could present new trading opportunities:
Monday, 14th July
CN50: China trade
JP225: Japan machinery orders, industrial production
BITCOIN: Crypto week kicks off
Tuesday, 15th July
CN50: China GDP, retail sales, industrial production
AUD: Australia Westpac consumer confidence
CAD: Canada CPI, housing starts
GER40: Germany ZEW survey expectations
GBP: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speech
US30: US June CPI, Empire State Manufacturing, JPMorgan Chase earnings, Fed speech
US30: US retail sales, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed factory index, business inventories
TWN: TSMC earnings
Friday, 18th July
JPY: Japan CPI
USDInd: US housing starts, University of Michigan consumer sentiment
FXTM’s US30 is up roughly 5% year-to-date, with prices trading less than 2% away from the all-time high at 45156.2.
Imagen
Here are 3 factors that may rock the US30:
1) US bank earnings
Second-quarter earnings season unofficially kicks off on Tuesday 15th July, led by banking giants JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley report their earnings the day after.
US banks are expected to report strong earnings amid relaxed capital requirements, an increase in trading revenues and high interest rates.
It is worth noting that financials make up almost 27% of the US30’s weight with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs accounting for nearly 14%!
So, the upcoming earnings from US banks are a big deal for the index.
Markets are forecasting a 3.2% move, either Up or Down, for JPMorgan Chase stocks post-earnings
Markets are forecasting a 3.5% move, either Up or Down, for Goldman Sachs stocks post-earnings.
2) US June CPI report – Tuesday 15th July
The incoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) may impact bets around Fed cuts in the second half of this year.
Markets are forecasting:
CPI year-on-year (July 2025 vs. July 2024) to rise 2.6% from 2.4% in the prior month.
Core CPI year-on-year to rise 2.9% from 2.8%.
CPI month-on-month (July 2025 vs June 2024) to rise 0.3% from 0.1%
Core CPI month-on-month to rise 0.3% from 0.1% in the prior month
Signs of rising inflation pressures may shave bets around the Fed cutting interest rates.
Note: Speeches from various Fed officials and key US data, including PPI, retail sales, and the Beige Book, may impact the US30 after the CPI report on Tuesday.
US30 is forecast to move 0.8% up or 1.4% down in a 6-hour window after the US CPI report.
3) Technical forces
The US30 remains bullish on the daily charts with a potential “golden cross” pattern in the making.
This is A technical event, when an asset’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses above its 200-day SMA. Such a development is seen as a bullish sign that prices will rise further.
Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading near oversold territory.
Should 44200/44000 prove reliable support regions, prices may rebound back toward 45000 and the all-time high at 45156.
Sustained weakness below 44000 may open a path back toward 43500.
Technical Analyst Clive Maund shares his thoughts on where he believes gold is headed.
Gold has made impressive gains so far this year, but when it spiked up to touch $3500 in the middle of April it become heavily overbought which is why it then went into a rectangular consolidation pattern that has given time for the overbought condition to fully unwind, as shown by the MACD indicator on its 6-month chart below, and has also allowed its moving averages to catch up, especially the 50-day which has now fully closed the gap with the price.
Because there is still a considerable gap with the 200-day it means that there is room for the price to break down from the Rectangle and correct back towards or to this average. In attempting to weigh the probability of this happening versus the price instead breaking out upside from the Rectangle, we need to inspect the volume pattern and volume indicators, which normally provide valuable clues in a situation like this.
However, volume and volume indicators are no longer provided by Stockcharts for the metals but we can get around this problem by using a chart for the same time period for reliable gold proxy SPDR Gold Shares, whose chart is almost identical, which does show volume and volume indicators.
So, on the 6-month chart for SPDR Gold Shares, we see that, while the volume pattern is a little hard to decipher, the Accumulation line has continued to trend higher from the April peak as the price has tracked sideways and has even made new highs in recent days.
This is bullish and implies that, rather than breaking lower into a correction, GLD and thus gold itself will instead break higher into a new upleg. If it does break lower a likely scenario is that a short, sharp drop is followed by a rapid reversal to the upside.
Zooming out now to look at gold on a longer-term 6-year log scale chart we see that it broke out early last year from a big trading range to commence a powerful uptrend — an uptrend that remains very much in force, with the price still well above the lower rail of the channel — even if it broke down from the Rectangle shown on the chart above and dropped to the $3100 level it would not violate this channel.
On this chart, we can better see just how overbought gold got last April, hence the trading range that has since formed that we looked at above.
Zooming out again via a very long-term log-scale chart going all the way back to the start of the millennium, i.e., to the year 2000, affords us an overall Big Picture perspective.
This chart makes clear that the breakout early last year from the large trading range that started to form in the middle of 2020 actually marked the breakout from the Handle of a gigantic Cup & Handle continuation pattern that started to form as far back as 2012.
This is a truly enormous consolidation pattern that certainly has the capability to support a correspondingly big bull market and as we are only about 16 months into this major new bull market, it clearly has much further to run.
In conclusion, we are looking for a breakout from the current rectangular trading range that has formed from April into another major upleg. If gold should instead break down from this range and correct back towards or to its rising 200-day moving average and the lower rail of its uptrend channel, it should then reverse back to the upside into a vigorous uptrend.
Volume indicators are suggesting that the former scenario — a breakout into another upleg from the trading range without any further corrective action first — is more likely to prevail.
Important Disclosures:
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.
The quoted article represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks cannot be only be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to buy and sell securities.
The GBP/USD pair dropped to 1.3602 on Thursday, marking a two-week low amid a strengthening US dollar and growing concerns over the UK’s public finances.
The sell-off intensified after US President Donald Trump confirmed the imposition of 25% tariffs on goods from 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, effective 1 August. So far, only the UK and Vietnam have secured exemptions from these new tariffs, which are in addition to existing duties on cars, steel, and aluminium.
London is now scrambling to negotiate a US deal to exclude British steel from the tariffs. Failure to do so could see the rate rise to 50%, posing a severe threat to the UK’s already struggling steel industry.
Further pressure on the pound came from a bleak forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), warning that public debt could exceed 270% of GDP by the early 2070s. Key drivers include an ageing population, rising healthcare and pension costs, and heightened geopolitical tensions, which may necessitate increased defence spending – adding further uncertainty to the UK’s long-term fiscal stability.
Technical Analysis: GBP/USD
H4 Chart:
The pair completed a downward wave to 1.3525, followed by a recovery to 1.3590
Today, we anticipate a narrow consolidation range near this level
A breakout upwards could extend the correction to 1.3657, after which a fresh decline towards 1.3520 is expected, with a longer-term target at 1.3465
MACD confirmation: The signal line remains below zero, indicating a firm downward trend
H1 Chart:
The market has finished a correction to 1.3590, with consolidation now forming
An upward breakout may push the pair towards 1.3656, but a subsequent drop to at least 1.3520 is likely
Stochastic confirmation: the signal line is below 80, trending downward towards 20.
Conclusion
The GBP/USD remains under downward pressure, with fundamental and technical factors aligning for further weakness. A short-term correction is possible, but the broader trend suggests additional declines ahead.
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
At the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index was up 0.49%. The S&P 500 (US500) Index rose by 0.61%. The Nasdaq (US100) technology Index closed higher by 0.94%. US stocks closed higher on Wednesday as investors assessed the impact of tariff expansion on corporate earnings and future Federal Reserve policy. Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting showed that officials view the recently announced tariffs as inflationary, prompting them to delay resuming interest rate cuts that were previously planned for earlier this year. The announcement came shortly after President Trump expanded the list of countries subject to US tariffs, effective August 1, to include the Philippines, Iraq, and possibly Brazil.
Nvidia (NVDA) became the first company to reach a market value of $4 trillion. Shares of the leading chipmaker rose about 2.4% to $164, thanks to continued growth in demand for artificial intelligence technology. Nvidia’s chips and related software are considered global leaders in the creation of artificial intelligence products.
The Mexican peso strengthened above 18.6 per US dollar, reaching an 11-month high, as investors assessed the ongoing price pressure against a strong external balance. The unexpected rise in core inflation in June to 4.24%, the highest level since April 2024, caused the market to maintain expectations of cautious rate cuts by the Bank of Mexico, which allowed it to maintain a significant margin of real yield even after the June 26 decision to cut the benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 8%. In the external market, a slight recovery in the US dollar against the backdrop of renewed threats of tariffs was offset in the local market by Mexico’s progress in negotiations to delay or soften retaliatory duties.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) reached a new record high of $112,000, as investors shifted to riskier assets amid a broad rally in the stock market. Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has risen by more than 18% due to sustained institutional demand, as traditional financial players increasingly embrace the world’s largest cryptocurrency. The Trump administration’s pro-cryptocurrency stance has also bolstered the digital asset market, driving fresh capital into the sector.
European stock markets were mostly higher on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.42%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.44%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) added 1.24%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.15%. On Wednesday, the DAX index continued to rise, climbing more than 1% and surpassing the 24,500-point mark, reaching a new all-time high with the support of defensive stocks, as traders await news on the progress of trade negotiations. President Trump said he would likely notify the EU of the proposed export duty rate in the coming days, adding that negotiations with the EU were progressing well. The European Commission recently reiterated its goal of reaching a framework agreement with the US on the trade dispute by the end of this week.
WTI oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday and closed at $68.4 per barrel as traders assessed an unexpected increase in US oil inventories amid renewed tensions in the Red Sea and forecasts of a decline in US production. The EIA reported a 7.1 million barrel increase in US oil inventories for the week ending July 4, contrary to expectations of a 2.1 million barrel decline. Prices were supported by renewed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, including an attack that sank a cargo ship and killed at least four crew members.
The US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices fell 5% to below $3.2 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on Wednesday, the lowest in six weeks, due to rising supply and high inventory levels. In July, production in the 48 contiguous US states averaged 106.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), surpassing June’s record high of 106.4 bcfd. Gas inventories remain about 6% above the five-year average, and analysts expect another above-average weekly increase — the 11th in 12 weeks. Despite this surplus, demand remains high due to forecasts of hotter-than-usual weather through the end of July, leading to increased electricity consumption for air conditioning.
Asian markets traded without a single trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.33%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.18%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.06%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.61% yesterday.
The Central Bank of Malaysia lowered its base interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% at its monetary policy meeting in July 2025, in line with market expectations. This was the first rate cut in five years, underscoring the central bank’s desire to support domestic economic momentum amid weakening growth prospects and rising uncertainty in global trade. In the first five months of the year, headline and core inflation averaged 1.4% and 1.9%, respectively. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s GDP grew by 4.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, in line with early estimates but below the revised growth rate of 4.9% in the previous quarter.
S&P 500 (US500) 6,263.26 +37.74 (+0.61%)
Dow Jones (US30) 44,458.30 +217.54 (+0.49%)
DAX (DE40) 24,549.56 +342.65 (+1.42%)
FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,867.02 +12.84 (+0.15%)
USD index 97.57 +0.05 (+0.05%)
News feed for: 2025.07.10
Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
John Newell of John Newell & Associates explains why he thinks more people should be looking at the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index (CDNX).
There’s an old market adage: “Stocks go down in an elevator and up in a staircase.”
That sums up the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index (CDNX) over the last 15 years, except this time, it didn’t just go down in an elevator. It got trapped in the basement, and every breakout attempt was met with rejection.
Now, it’s not just climbing, it’s breaking out. And hardly anyone’s paying attention.
The CDNX, Canada’s benchmark for early-stage resource and technology companies, has emerged from one of the longest and most painful sideways-to-down periods in its history. For over a decade, it’s been ignored by the mainstream, starved of capital, and left for dead by speculators who moved on to crypto, cannabis, AI, or just gave up.
But that’s changed. The long-term technicals are flashing green. Capital is rotating back into exploration. And the macro story, anchored by gold, copper, and the metals that power the global shift to electrification, is stronger than it’s been in years.
The Setup: Same Way Down, Same Way Up?
Pull up the long-term CDNX chart and you’ll see a dramatic elevator drop from the 2011 highs.
What followed was a decade-long churn that wore out all but the most patient investors. But the pattern that’s forming now? It looks a lot like the mirror image of the move down.
Same way down, same way up?
On the weekly chart, price has broken above long-term moving averages and resistance levels.
Technical targets are activating at 775, 1025, 1325, and 1480. And the long-term Big picture target?
3550, the level where everything started to unravel more than a decade ago.
This isn’t guesswork. It’s price memory. And markets never forget.
Amazon had 20% Corrections Too
Worried about volatility? Looking for the perfect entry? Consider Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN:NASDAQ).
Since the early 2000s, Amazon has gone through more than 15 corrections of 20% or more. Some were over 50%. That’s the price of conviction. And most investors can’t pay it.
If you want generational wealth, you don’t sit in the stands waving pom-poms, you put the pads on and step onto the field.
We celebrate Amazon, Microsoft, and Home Depot as legendary compounders. But almost no one held them through all the turbulence.
Now compare that to junior mining.
You’re not holding for 20 years, waiting on a trillion-dollar valuation. You’re hunting for a discovery, a single drill hole, or deal, that re-rates a company’s valuation in weeks. These aren’t slow burns.
They’re liftoff points.
This Isn’t Just a Rebound. It’s a Rotation.
The CDNX is heavily weighted toward the materials sector, about 40–50%, with gold and silver explorers doing most of the lifting. Base metals like copper and uranium are gaining momentum as investors wake up to the structural shortfalls in global supply.
This index doesn’t move unless real capital is coming back into exploration. And it is.
With gold now holding above $3,300 and copper emerging from a massive base, this isn’t just a bounce, it’s a rotation back to real assets. And junior miners, most of which are still trading near historic lows, are still early in that rotation.
The Venture Exchange is where the rerates happen first.
The Opportunity in One Chart
The index tells us capital is starting to flow. But if you want a more visceral example, take a look at what just happened with ArcWest Exploration Inc. (AWX:TSX.V).
In December 2024, the company was trading at $0.06 with a market cap of ~$5.5 million.
Then, in early July, they announced a $4 million drill program funded by a major.
The stock surged to $0.25 in three days, a revaluation to $22.5 million.
No results, no new resource, no discovery, just a funded drill commitment.
That’s what this part of the market can do.
At the risk of cherry-picking, Arc West shows how fast capital can reprice a stock when sentiment flips. And we’re starting to see more examples like this appear, quietly, for those paying attention.
Final Word
You hear it all the time: “If I’d just held Amazon, I’d be rich.” Sure. But how many did?
Junior mining is different. You don’t need to hold for decades. You just need to spot when a forgotten corner of the market is waking up and be early.
The TSX Venture Index is waking up. Few are watching. But for those willing to take a contrarian position, with eyes wide open, this may be the most explosive setup in the market today.
Like all great trades, it rewards action, not comfort.
Important Disclosures:
John Newell: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: None. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.
As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it’s advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.
Gold prices fell below 3,300 USD per troy ounce on Wednesday, extending losses after a 1% decline the previous day. The downward pressure stemmed from the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, which partially offset concerns over escalating trade tensions.
US President Donald Trump dismissed any further delays to tariff hikes set for 1 August, announcing additional aggressive measures. These include a 50% duty on copper imports, potential 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals, and a 10% levy on goods from BRICS nations.
Another key factor weighing on gold was the neutral Fed outlook regarding a rate cut in July. Last week’s strong US jobs report alleviated fears of an economic slowdown, reducing expectations of imminent monetary easing.
The new tariffs could exacerbate inflationary pressures in the US, potentially limiting the Fed’s room for future rate reductions.
Investors are now awaiting the June FOMC meeting minutes, due later today, for further clues on the central bank’s policy direction.
Technical Analysis: XAU/USD
H4 Chart:
The XAU/USD pair is forming the fifth wave of a downward structure, targeting 3,233. Upon completion, a corrective wave towards 3,344 may follow before a potential resumption of declines to 3,121. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and trending sharply downward.
H1 Chart:
The pair has established a downward wave to 3,286, followed by a tight consolidation range near 3,296. Today, we anticipate a drop to 3,282, followed by a retest of 3,296 (from below). A breakout below this range could extend losses towards 3,247 – a near-term target. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, with its signal line sitting below 50 and trending downward towards 20.
Conclusion
Gold remains under pressure amid shifting Fed expectations and trade uncertainties. A bearish technical structure suggests further downside potential unless key support levels hold.
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
Copper futures in New York surged to records on Tuesday after Trump announced a higher-than-expected 50% tariff on copper imports.
Prices jumped as high as $5.818, pushing 2025 gains to more than 36%.
Note: FXTM Copper tracks Copper futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s COMEX division.
The prospect of steep tariffs may fuel more buying of copper before the levies officially come into effect. However, no date has been confirmed yet.
Still, this development could spark major supply-chain ripples through global metal markets. This is already being reflected in LME copper, which has dropped as much as 2% before later rebounding.
Note: LME (London Metal Exchange) copper serves as a global benchmark for copper prices.
Copper prices are firmly bullish, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is heavily overbought.
BULLISH – Should $5.4 prove to be reliable support, prices may push back toward the all-time high at $5.8183 and the next psychological level at $6.0.
BEARISH – Weakness below $5.4 could trigger a decline back toward $5.12.
At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.37%. The S&P 500 (US500) Index fell by 0.07%. The Nasdaq (US100) technology index closed higher by 0.03%. On Tuesday, US stocks were virtually unchanged as investors tried to make sense of President Trump’s mixed signals on tariffs. Trump initially postponed the return of comprehensive “Liberation Day” tariffs until August 1, but then changed course and said there would be no further extensions, further exacerbating trade instability. Markets reacted sharply to Trump’s announcement of high 50% tariffs on copper imports, causing copper futures to jump more than 10% and shares in producers such as Freeport-McMoran and Southern Copper to rise. Meanwhile, pharmaceutical stocks pared gains after Trump hinted at imposing a 200% tariff on foreign-made drugs but offered a one-year grace period.
US consumer inflation expectations for the coming year fell to 3% in June 2025 from 3.2% in May, the lowest level in five months. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the three-year and five-year horizons remained unchanged at 3.0% and 2.6%, respectively.
European stock markets were mostly up on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.55%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.56%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) rose by 0.03%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) added 0.54%. The US imposed tariffs on major Asian trading partners in addition to sectoral tariffs. Still, we excluded the EU, noting statements by EU officials that the US minimum tariff of 10% could be reached. Car manufacturers benefited from the negative impact of tariffs on Asian competitors, with BMW and Stellantis adding 2% and 3%, respectively. In addition, UniCredit added 1.9% as the EU is expected to reject the Italian government’s conditions for the acquisition of Banco BPM, increasing the likelihood of the deal going through.
WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.6% to close at $68.3 per barrel on Tuesday, hovering near a two-week high, as investors assessed the impact of new US tariffs and a larger-than-expected increase in OPEC+ production in August. President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on 14 countries raised concerns about global economic growth and oil demand. On Saturday, OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase and exceeding analysts’ expectations. The move will restore nearly 80% of the 2.2 million barrels per day that eight OPEC members voluntarily cut. Meanwhile, API and EIA data on oil inventories are expected to show a decline of 2.6 million barrels for the week ending July 4, marking the sixth consecutive decline in seven weeks.
Asian markets were mostly lower yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.26%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.42%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.09%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.02%.
In China, consumer prices rose slightly in June after four months of decline, indicating continued high deflationary pressure. Meanwhile, producer prices experienced their sharpest decline in nearly two years amid fierce competition among Chinese companies, persistently weak domestic demand, and growing risks of tariffs.
The New Zealand dollar fell to $0.598 on Wednesday, its lowest level in two weeks, after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) paused its cycle of interest rate cuts but signaled that further easing was likely if price pressures eased. The central bank kept its official refinancing rate at 3.25%, as expected, after six consecutive cuts since August 2024, when it first lowered the rate since March 2020. Policymakers expect rates to continue falling, in line with May forecasts, provided that medium-term inflation continues to decline. Markets also expect that the ongoing economic weakness will allow the RBNZ to make at least one more rate cut at the end of this year.
S&P 500 (US500) 6,225.52 −4.46 (−0.07%)
Dow Jones (US30) 44,240.76 −165.60 (−0.37%)
DAX (DE40) 24,206.91 +133.24 (+0.55%)
FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,854.18 +47.65 (+0.54%)
USD index 97.51 +0.03 (+0.03%)
News feed for: 2025.07.09
China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+3);
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
Many modern devices – from cellphones and computers to electric vehicles and wind turbines – rely on strong magnets made from a type of minerals called rare earths. As the systems and infrastructure used in daily life have turned digital and the United States has moved toward renewable energy, accessing these minerals has become critical – and the markets for these elements have grown rapidly.
Modern society now uses rare earth magnets in everything from national defense, where magnet-based systems are integral to missile guidance and aircraft, to the clean energy transition, which depends on wind turbines and electric vehicles.
The rapid growth of the rare earth metal trade and its effects on society isn’t the only case study of its kind. Throughout history, materials have quietly shaped the trajectory of human civilization. They form the tools people use, the buildings they inhabit, the devices that mediate their relationships and the systems that structure economies. Newly discovered materials can set off ripple effects that shape industries, shift geopolitical balances and transform people’s daily habits.
Materials science is the study of the atomic structure, properties, processing and performance of materials. In many ways, materials science is a discipline of immense social consequence.
As a materials scientist, I’m interested in what can happen when new materials become available. Glass, steel and rare earth magnets are all examples of how innovation in materials science has driven technological change and, as a result, shaped global economies, politics and the environment.
How innovation shapes society: Pressures from societal and political interests (orange arrows) drive the creation of new materials and the technologies that such materials enable (center). The ripple effects resulting from people using these technologies change the entire fabric of society (blue arrows). Peter Mullner
Glass lenses and the scientific revolution
In the early 13th century, after the sacking of Constantinople, some excellent Byzantine glassmakers left their homes to settle in Venice – at the time a powerful economic and political center. The local nobility welcomed the glassmakers’ beautiful wares. However, to prevent the glass furnaces from causing fires, the nobles exiled the glassmakers – under penalty of death – to the island of Murano.
Murano became a center for glass craftsmanship. In the 15th century, the glassmaker Angelo Barovier experimented with adding the ash from burned plants, which contained a chemical substance called potash, to the glass.
The potash reduced the melting temperature and made liquid glass more fluid. It also eliminated bubbles in the glass and improved optical clarity. This transparent glass was later used in magnifying lenses and spectacles.
Johannes Gutenberg’s printing press, completed in 1455, made reading more accessible to people across Europe. With it came a need for reading glasses, which grew popular among scholars, merchants and clergy – enough that spectacle-making became an established profession.
In the late 18th and 19th centuries, the Industrial Revolution created demand for stronger, more reliable materials for machines, railroads, ships and infrastructure. The material that emerged was steel, which is strong, durable and cheap. Steel is a mixture of mostly iron, with small amounts of carbon and other elements added.
Countries with large-scale steel manufacturing once had outsized economic and political power and influence over geopolitical decisions. For example, the British Parliament intended to prevent the colonies from exporting finished steel with the iron act of 1750. They wanted the colonies’ raw iron as supply for their steel industry in England.
Benjamin Huntsman invented a smelting process using 3-foot tall ceramic vessels, called crucibles, in 18th-century Sheffield. Huntsman’s crucible process produced higher-quality steel for tools and weapons.
One hundred years later, Henry Bessemer developed the oxygen-blowing steelmaking process, which drastically increased production speed and lowered costs. In the United States, figures such as Andrew Carnegie created a vast industry based on Bessemer’s process.
The widespread availability of steel transformed how societies built, traveled and defended themselves. Skyscrapers and transit systems made of steel allowed cities to grow, steel-built battleships and tanks empowered militaries, and cars containing steel became staples in consumer life.
Control over steel resources and infrastructure made steel a foundation of national power. China’s 21st-century rise to steel dominance is a continuation of this pattern. From 1995 to 2015, China’s contribution to the world steel production increased from about 10% to more than 50%. The White House responded in 2018 with massive tariffs on Chinese steel.
Rare earth metals and global trade
Early in the 21st century, the advance of digital technologies and the transition to an economy based on renewable energies created a demand for rare earth elements.
Rare earth elements are 17 chemically very similar elements, including neodymium, dysprosium, samarium and others. They occur in nature in bundles and are the ingredients that make magnets super strong and useful. They are necessary for highly efficient electric motors, wind turbines and electronic devices.
The rare earth metals case illustrates how a single category of materials can shape trade policy, industrial planning and even diplomatic alliances.
Mining rare earth elements has allowed for the widespread adoption of many modern technologies. Peggy Greb, USDA
Technological transformation begins with societal pressure. New materials create opportunities for scientific and engineering breakthroughs. Once a material proves useful, it quickly becomes woven into the fabric of daily life and broader systems. With each innovation, the material world subtly reorganizes the social world — redefining what is possible, desirable and normal.
Understanding how societies respond to new innovations in materials science can help today’s engineers and scientists solve crises in sustainability and security. Every technical decision is, in some ways, a cultural one, and every material has a story that extends far beyond its molecular structure.
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