COT Week 32 Charts: Energy Speculators bets fall led by WTI Crude Oil, Gasoline & Brent

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 9nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT energy market speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Heating Oil (2,396 contracts) which was the only market this week showing increasing speculator bets.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-43,101 contracts) and Gasoline (-5,312 contracts) with Brent Crude Oil (-1,429 contracts), Natural Gas (-446 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-33 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-09-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,570,1310210,6510-238,07310027,42253
Gold453,5400142,85119-154,5548311,7031
Silver141,09382,8799-13,5748910,69521
Copper187,98821-28,4772227,7007877730
Palladium7,6196-1,970122,04486-7440
Platinum62,782268469-4,055933,2097
Natural Gas969,5823-125,4194186,7345838,68572
Brent175,89621-34,2115432,411471,80034
Heating Oil283,7492924,46478-36,4723212,00840
Soybeans583,208288,90141-62,97165-25,93027
Corn1,317,9131210,78657-160,65449-50,13214
Coffee209,4461330,45365-31,268418157
Sugar765,6691226,06542-30,608624,54313
Wheat320,76714-3,426159,93974-6,51377

 


Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Heating Oil (78.4 percent) remains the leader in energy market strength scores. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (59.1 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (53.8 percent) come in as the next highest energy markets in strength scores and both are above 50 percent or the midpoint of their 3-year ranges. On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is at the bottom of its 3-year range. Joining WTI in a bearish extreme position (below 20 percent) is Gasoline at a 17.5 percent score.


Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (11.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (53.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (56.2 percent)
Natural Gas (40.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (41.1 percent)
Gasoline (17.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (22.9 percent)
Heating Oil (78.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (74.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (59.1 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (59.2 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (24.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Brent Crude Oil (14.2 percent) and Gasoline (13.4 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data. WTI Crude Oil (-23.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores is the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-20.3 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-23.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-9.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (14.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (8.8 percent)
Natural Gas (1.2 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (1.8 percent)
Gasoline (13.4 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (19.5 percent)
Heating Oil (24.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (18.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-20.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-17.5 percent)


Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 210,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -43,101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 253,752 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.540.64.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.155.73.2
– Net Position:210,651-238,07327,422
– Gross Longs:338,172636,98076,995
– Gross Shorts:127,521875,05349,573
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.052.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.524.3-1.2

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -34,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,429 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.049.93.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.431.52.9
– Net Position:-34,21132,4111,800
– Gross Longs:31,57887,8466,819
– Gross Shorts:65,78955,4355,019
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.847.233.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.2-15.07.5

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -125,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -124,973 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.541.77.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.532.73.0
– Net Position:-125,41986,73438,685
– Gross Longs:169,972404,07767,512
– Gross Shorts:295,391317,34328,827
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.958.271.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.2-1.30.2

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 45,506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,312 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,818 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.848.87.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.668.85.7
– Net Position:45,506-50,2544,748
– Gross Longs:74,516122,09318,926
– Gross Shorts:29,010172,34714,178
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.583.144.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.4-7.5-37.3

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,396 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,068 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.152.614.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.565.510.2
– Net Position:24,464-36,47212,008
– Gross Longs:45,620149,37240,817
– Gross Shorts:21,156185,84428,809
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.432.439.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.9-11.4-21.6

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -33 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,623 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.974.00.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.755.70.2
– Net Position:-12,65612,375281
– Gross Longs:16,11549,878386
– Gross Shorts:28,77137,503105
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 13.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.140.920.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.320.5-1.1

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

COT Week 32 Charts: Stock Market Speculator bets rise led by MSCI EAFE, Russell 2000 & Dow Jones

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT stock market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had decreasing spec contracts.

Leading the gains for stock markets was the MSCI EAFE Mini (8,666 contracts) and the Russell 2000 Mini (7,087 contracts) with the Dow Jones Mini (5,711 contracts), VIX (643 contracts) and  Nikkei 225 USD (375 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The stock markets leading the declines this week were the S&P500 Mini (-12,376 contracts) and the Nasdaq Mini (-3,637 contracts) with falling speculator bets on the week.

Stocks Futures Speculators


Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-09-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
S&P500-Mini2,299,3888-244,26111312,241100-67,98012
Nikkei 22514,29710-4,260573,4624779838
Nasdaq-Mini258,7844721,07587-1,16726-19,9088
DowJones-Mini75,39435-12,7102117,16882-4,45815
VIX341,69939-98,19560103,10439-4,90968
Nikkei 225 Yen59,192427,6555823,07584-30,73011

 


Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Nasdaq-Mini (86.8 percent) continues to lead stocks and remains in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). The VIX (60.1 percent) and the Nikkei USD (57.2 percent) come in as the next highest stock markets in strength scores. On the downside, the Russell 2000-Mini (4.0 percent), the S&P500-Mini (10.9 percent) and the EAFE-Mini (11.7 percent) come in as the lowest strength scores currently and are all in bearish extreme speculator levels (below 20 percent).

Stocks Spec Strength Scores (3-YR Range 0-100)

Strength Statistics:
VIX (60.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (59.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (10.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (13.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (21.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (13.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (86.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (88.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (4.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (0.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (57.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (55.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (11.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (1.9 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the DowJones-Mini (16.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for stocks and is the only positive mover in the data. The VIX (-24.3 percent), the EAFE-Mini (-23.6 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (-19.5 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently. The data shows that overall, the speculators have had a bearish tilt over that past six weeks.

Stocks Spec Strength Score Trends (6-Weeks)

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-24.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-24.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-19.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-21.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (16.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (9.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-1.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-3.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-4.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-8.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-12.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-14.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-23.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-35.9 percent)


Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -98,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 643 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.160.97.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.830.78.8
– Net Position:-98,195103,104-4,909
– Gross Longs:41,377208,08525,269
– Gross Shorts:139,572104,98130,178
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.139.367.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.322.611.2

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -244,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,376 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -231,885 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.977.69.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.564.112.5
– Net Position:-244,261312,241-67,980
– Gross Longs:227,0641,785,298218,709
– Gross Shorts:471,3251,473,057286,689
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.9100.012.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.521.1-8.1

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,711 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.559.113.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.436.319.7
– Net Position:-12,71017,168-4,458
– Gross Longs:20,00844,52710,357
– Gross Shorts:32,71827,35914,815
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.482.014.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.5-16.80.8

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 21,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,637 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.657.811.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.458.319.4
– Net Position:21,075-1,167-19,908
– Gross Longs:73,939149,70530,221
– Gross Shorts:52,864150,87250,129
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 11.0 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.825.87.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.711.5-32.2

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -112,867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -119,954 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.289.83.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.068.24.4
– Net Position:-112,867117,463-4,596
– Gross Longs:28,422488,82319,479
– Gross Shorts:141,289371,36024,075
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.096.613.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.63.92.3

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -4,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,635 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.956.127.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.731.921.9
– Net Position:-4,2603,462798
– Gross Longs:2,2788,0173,922
– Gross Shorts:6,5384,5553,124
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.247.038.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.66.816.1

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -22,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,514 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.192.42.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.987.11.4
– Net Position:-22,84820,4972,351
– Gross Longs:19,817362,2557,872
– Gross Shorts:42,665341,7585,521
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.793.239.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.624.6-1.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Unsealed court documents show the FBI was looking for evidence Trump violated the Espionage Act and other laws – here’s how the documents seized show possible wrongdoing

By Clark D. Cunningham, Georgia State University 

The FBI recovered confidential and top-secret items from Mar-a-Lago during its Aug. 8, 2022, search of the estate – pointing to former President Donald Trump’s potential violation of several federal laws.

A Florida federal judge – the same one who issued the warrant to search Trump’s estate – ordered on Aug. 12, 2022, that the document be made public – along with an inventory of items seized during the FBI’s raid.

The unsealed documents seem to indicate that the U.S. Department of Justice believes Trump may have violated the Espionage Act, as well as other criminal laws relating to the handling of public records.

Clark Cunningham, Georgia State University legal scholar and an expert on search warrants, explains how this new information connects to possible criminal wrongdoing by the former president.

These laws were potentially violated

The released warrant authorized the FBI to search for evidence that Trump has violated three key laws.

First, there is the Espionage Act, which applies to possession of information related to the national defense that could be used to harm the U.S. or aid a foreign adversary. This law applies to someone who, like Trump, initially had lawful possession of such information but who, after their time in office ended, refuses to return it to the government.

Then, there is obstruction of justice, which includes concealing documents to obstruct a federal investigation.

Finally, there is the Public Records statute, which prohibits someone entrusted with a public record from “concealing” that document.

What’s in the inventory

The inventory of items taken by the FBI from Mar-a-Lago apparently shows Trump may have violated these laws in a number of different ways.

The inventory shows that FBI agents seized documents designated “SCI,” which refers to Sensitive Compartmented Information. In simple terms, this is classified information that comes from intelligence sources – and must be handled only within secured government locations.

Because this kind of sensitive information can reveal both methods and procedures for collecting intelligence – including the identity of undercover agents in hostile countries – the presence of such materials at Mar-a-Lago may be a violation of the Espionage Act, if Trump was willfully retaining this information after the government demanded its return.

The inventory also refers to numerous “top-secret” documents. Federal law defines this as “information or material which requires the highest degree of protection” and could threaten national security. The FBI’s discovery of top-secret documents could corroborate The Washington Post’s report that the FBI search included classified documents related to nuclear weapons. The FBI also seized documents designated “secret” and “confidential.”

All told, the FBI removed 27 boxes and other individually listed items, including photographs.

Trump received a federal subpoena in the spring of 2022 to return documents taken from the White House.

So if the inventory includes items that should have been returned in response to the subpoena, but were not, that can be evidence of obstruction of justice and concealment of public records.

A defense that might not hold

Trump has suggested that the FBI may have planted evidence during its search.

However, federal rules about search warrants provide strong protection against such a possibility, by requiring that a government officer present when a search warrant is carried out “prepare and verify an inventory” of property seized in the presence of “another officer” and “the person from whom, or from whose premises, the property was taken.”

The officer must then “give a copy of the warrant and a receipt for the property taken to the person from whom, or from whose premises, the property was taken,” according to these rules.

U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland said during his Aug. 11 statement about the search that these procedures were followed. “Copies of both the warrant and the FBI property receipt were provided on the day of the search to the former president’s counsel, who was on site during the search,” Garland said.

The federal rules say that if the owner of the premises is not present, another “credible person” can verify the inventory – in this case, the unsealed records confirm that Trump’s attorney, Christine Bobbs, acknowledged receipt of the inventory at 6:19 p.m. on Aug. 8, 2022.

Limited precedent for unsealing these types of documents

It’s relatively rare for a judge to unseal court records of a search warrant, unless an actual criminal prosecution is underway and the record is needed in court.

One other notable exception occurred in December 2016 when a New York federal court issued an unsealing order for the Oct. 30, 2016, search warrant requested by former FBI Director James Comey to investigate emails improperly stored by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Unlike the Justice Department’s Aug. 12, 2022, order regarding Trump, the unsealing of the Clinton-related warrant included the underlying affidavit. An affidavit is a statement made under oath to the issuing judge to obtain the warrant.

Disclosure of these documents provided the basis for a firestorm of criticism by Clinton allies that there was insufficient evidence to support the FBI’s warrant application.

As explained in a judge’s October 2016 order to make the search warrant for the Clinton investigation public, warrant application proceedings “have historically been highly secretive in nature and closed to the press and public.” In that case, the judge said that in deciding whether to unseal, courts must consider both the government’s interest in not compromising an ongoing criminal investigation and the need to protect the privacy and reputation of the person subject to the search who may never be charged with a crime.

However, for the Mar-a-Lago warrant, both the government and Trump, the subject of the search, consented to the unsealing.

True to his reputation for careful judgment, Garland went by the book in response to an avalanche of attacks from Trump allies demanding transparency about the search. The warrant and inventory have now been released for all to see through a proper court procedure – which Trump publicly endorsed.The Conversation

About the Author:

Clark D. Cunningham, W. Lee Burge Chair in Law & Ethics; Director, National Institute for Teaching Ethics & Professionalism, Georgia State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Farmers can save water with wireless technologies, but there are challenges – like transmitting data through mud

By Abdul Salam, Purdue University 

Water is the most essential resource for life, for both humans and the crops we consume. Around the world, agriculture accounts for 70% of all freshwater use.

I study computers and information technology in the Purdue Polytechnic Institute and direct Purdue’s Environmental Networking Technology (ENT) Laboratory, where we tackle sustainability and environmental challenges with interdisciplinary research into the Agricultural Internet of Things, or Ag-IoT.

The Internet of Things is a network of objects equipped with sensors so they can receive and transmit data via the internet. Examples include wearable fitness devices, smart home thermostats and self-driving cars.

In agriculture, it involves technologies such as wireless underground communications, subsurface sensing and antennas in soil. These systems help farmers track conditions on their land in real time, and apply water and other inputs such as fertilizer exactly when and where they are needed.

White sticks embedded in soil among corn stalks
Sensors installed in a corn field.
Abdul Salam, CC BY-ND

In particular, monitoring conditions in the soil has great promise for helping farmers use water more efficiently. Sensors can now be wirelessly integrated into irrigation systems to provide real-time awareness of soil moisture levels. Studies suggest that this strategy can reduce water demand for irrigation by anywhere from 20% to 72% without hampering daily operations on crop fields.

What is the Agricultural Internet of Things?

Even in dry places such as the Middle East and North Africa, farming is possible with efficient water management. But extreme weather events driven by climate change are making that harder. Recurrent droughts in the western U.S. over the past 20 years, along with other disasters like wildfires, have caused billions of dollars in crop losses.

Water experts have measured soil moisture to inform water management and irrigation decisions for decades. Automated technologies have largely replaced hand-held soil moisture tools because it is hard to take manual soil moisture readings in production fields in remote locations.

In the past decade, wireless data harvesting technologies have begun to provide real-time access to soil moisture data, which makes for better water management decisions. These technologies could also have many advanced IoT applications in public safety, urban infrastructure monitoring and food safety.

The Agricultural Internet of Things is a network of radios, antennas and sensors that gather real-time crop and soil information in the field. To facilitate data collection, these sensors and antennas are interconnected wirelessly with farm equipment. The Ag-IoT is a complete framework that can detect conditions on farmland, suggest actions in response and send commands to farm machinery.

Graphic showing satellites, drones, wireless underground communications systems and other digital components collecting and sharing signals around a farm
Technologies that together comprise the Agricultural Internet of Things.
Abdul Salam/Purdue University, CC BY-ND

Interconnecting devices such as soil moisture and temperature sensors in the field makes it possible to control irrigation systems and conserve water autonomously. The system can schedule irrigation, monitor environmental conditions and control farm machines, such as seed planters and fertilizer applicators. Other applications include estimating soil nutrient levels and identifying pests.

The challenges of putting networks underground

Wireless data collection has the potential to help farmers use water much more efficiently, but putting these components in the ground creates challenges. For example, at the Purdue ENT Lab, we have found that when the antennas that transmit sensor data are buried in soil, their operating characteristics change drastically depending on how moist the soil is. My new book, “Signals in the Soil,” explains how this happens.

A scientist stands next to a wood-framed test bed containing equipment embedded in soil
Abdul Salam takes measurements in a test bed at Purdue University to determine the optimum operating frequency for underground antennas.
Abdul Salam, CC BY-ND

Farmers use heavy equipment in fields, so antennas must be buried deep enough to avoid damage. As soil becomes wet, the moisture affects communication between the sensor network and the control system. Water in the soil absorbs signal energy, which weakens the signals that the system sends. Denser soil also blocks signal transmission.

We have developed a theoretical model and an antenna that reduces the soil’s impact on underground communications by changing the operation frequency and system bandwidth. With this antenna, sensors placed in top layers of soil can provide real-time soil condition information to irrigation systems at distances up to 650 feet (200 meters) – longer than two football fields.

Another solution I have developed for improving wireless communication in soil is to use directional antennas to focus signal energy in a desired direction. Antennas that direct energy toward air can also be used for long-range wireless underground communications.

Two metal radios on the ground
Using software-defined radios to detect soil measurement signals. These radios can adjust their operating frequencies in response to soil moisture changes. In actual operation, the radios are buried in the soil.
Abdul Salam, CC BY-ND

What’s next for the Ag-IoT

Cybersecurity is becoming increasingly important for the Ag-IoT as it matures. Networks on farms need advanced security systems to protect the information that they transfer. There’s also a need for solutions that enable researchers and agricultural extension agents to merge information from multiple farms. Aggregating data this way will produce more accurate decisions about issues like water use, while preserving growers’ privacy.

These networks also need to adapt to changing local conditions, such as temperature, rainfall and wind. Seasonal changes and crop growth cycles can temporarily alter operating conditions for Ag-IoT equipment. By using cloud computing and machine learning, scientists can help the Ag-IoT respond to shifts in the environment around it.

Finally, lack of high-speed internet access is still an issue in many rural communities. For example, many researchers have integrated wireless underground sensors with Ag-IoT in center pivot irrigation systems, but farmers without high-speed internet access can’t install this kind of technology.

Integrating satellite-based network connectivity with the Ag-IoT can assist nonconnected farms where broadband connectivity is still unavailable. Researchers are also developing vehicle-mounted and mobile Ag-IoT platforms that use drones. Systems like these can provide continuous connectivity in the field, making digital technologies accessible for more farmers in more places.The Conversation

About the Author:

Abdul Salam, Assistant Professor of Computer and Information Technology, Purdue University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Single Stock ETFs Are Here

By Ino.com

In July, AXS Investments debuted US-based investors’ first single stock Exchange Traded Funds. These ETFs allow investors to gain leverage on certain individual stocks.

However, because you are using leverage, there is more risk involved, and the authorities want investors to understand these risks before purchasing these new products.

The risks are associated with the leveraged exposure these new ETFs offer and the risk associated with investing in individual stocks. But since leverage is being applied, the risk level multiplies.

For example, one of the new ETFs being offered is the AXS 2X NKE Bull Daily ETF (NKEL) which provides investors 2X leverage to Nike (NKE) stock. This would mean that if you owned NKEL on a day when Nike stock increased by 0.50%, the NKEL ETF, which is 2X leverage, will go up 1.00%.

But, the opposite is also true. So if Nike stock fell by 1%, the NKEL ETF, which tracks Nike stock at a 2X leveraged ratio, would lose 2%.

Leverage is a very nice thing to have when it is being applied in the direction you want it to move. But leverage can be deadly when it is going against you.

Hence why the Securities and Exchange Commission is warning investors of the dangers associated with any single stock ETF, even if it is not marketing itself as leveraged.

One example of a new single stock ETF that is not marketing itself as leveraged is the AXS TSLA Bear Daily ETF (TSLQ). This ETF only tracks Tesla, but to the downside with just 1X leveraged exposure.

This essentially means that the TSLQ is shorting Tesla. But, unlike having to short a stock, which would require approval from your broker, a margin account, and the risk of not losing more than 100% of your investment, you simply have to buy this one ETF and not worry about the other things.

AXS currently has eight single-stock ETFs:

The AXS TSLA Bear Daily ETF (TSLQ), shorts Tesla.
The AXS 1.25X NVDA Bear Daily ETF (NVDS) is short NVDA.
The AXS 1.5X PYPL Bear Daily ETF (PYPS) which shorts PayPal.
The AXS 1.5X PYPL Bull Daily ETF (PYPT) which is long PayPal.
The AXS 2X NKE Bear Daily ETF (NKEQ) which is short Nike.
The AXS 2X NKE Bull Daily ETF (NKEL) which is bullish Nike.
The AXS 2X PFE Bear Daily ETF (PFES) is short Pfizer.
The AXS 2X PFE Bull Daily ETF (PFEL) is long Pfizer.

The leveraged ones have the amount of leverage they are providing in the name of the ETF. But all the funds currently charge a 1.15% expense ratio and are intended to be held one day at a time due to the contango effect caused by gaining leverage or the inversion.

More single stock leveraged and inverse ETFs are coming to the market as Direxion, GraniteShares, and Kurv Investment Management all have filed with the SEC to be permitted to offer their own single stock ETFs.

The filing shows that roughly 35 stocks will have a corresponding ETF, with some being blue chip stocks, some in the technology world, some in energy, and even some that are just very volatile stocks.

Investors are and will continue to be given a lot of opportunities to invest with leverage and make ‘bets’ on the direction of individual stocks.

But, just because you can do something does not always mean you should do it.

Learn more about the risks of investing in these ETFs and how contango will affect your investment if you hold these ETFs for longer than one day at a time before owning these single stock ETFs.

Matt Thalman
INO.com Contributor
Follow me on Twitter @mthalman5513

Disclosure: This contributor did not hold a position in any investment mentioned above at the time this blog post was published. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: Single Stock ETFs Are Here

Big Bitcoin Bets Burn This Firm: What’s Next for the Cryptocurrency?

MicroStrategy executive remains bullish on Bitcoin — mentions “ideal entry point”

By Elliott Wave International

Big bets on a hot financial market can be rewarding, but you know the flip side.

These sizzling markets can just as quickly severely punish because they have a way of cooling off just when nearly everyone is convinced that the market will get even hotter.

Consider MicroStrategy, a software firm which borrowed money to invest in Bitcoin.

So far, things haven’t worked out so well. Here’s an August 3 Marketwatch headline:

MicroStrategy racks up $1 billion loss, says CEO will leave that post

That loss was due almost entirely to its investment in Bitcoin and occurred in Q2 — cumulatively, MicroStrategy has racked up around $2 billion in Bitcoin losses.

These losses are mentioned as an update to the January Global Market Perspective coverage (The Global Market Perspective is an Elliott Wave International monthly which provides analysis of 50-plus worldwide financial markets):

The chart shows the long-term trend in the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, MicroStrategy Inc. At this point, MicroStrategy is down 62% from a countertrend rally top in February 2021. … The Global Market Perspective issued [a] reversal warning in April 2021 based on the latest change of trend in MicroStrategy’s share price: “The huge looming thing is how common these reversals of fortune are going to become.”

At the time of that Global Market Perspective coverage of more than six months ago, MicroStrategy had already raised its Bitcoin holdings to $5.9 billion (as of Dec. 30, 2021).

Despite the loss, MicroStrategy is not backing off its bullish view of Bitcoin with the CEO saying in an early August interview that this is an ideal entry point to buy Bitcoin.

Of course, only time will tell if the CEO turns out to be right or wrong. All the while, Bitcoin’s Elliott wave pattern is revealing its own message.

If you’d like to learn how Elliott wave analysis can be useful to you as an investor (or you simply need a refresher), you are encouraged to read Frost & Prechter’s Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from that book:

Without Elliott, there appear to be an infinite number of possibilities for market action. What the Wave Principle provides is a means of first limiting the possibilities and then ordering the relative probabilities of possible future market paths. Elliott’s highly specific rules reduce the number of valid alternatives to a minimum. Among those, the best interpretation, sometimes called the “preferred count,” is the one that satisfies the largest number of guidelines.

Review the “guidelines” and delve into many more details of the Elliott wave model by reading the online version of Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior for free!

The only requirement for free and instant access to this Wall Street classic is a Club EWI membership. Club EWI is the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community and is free to join with zero obligations.

Club EWI members get free access to Elliott wave resources on financial markets and investing, including articles and videos from Elliott Wave International’s analysts.

Follow this link and you can have Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior on your computer screen in moments — 100% free.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Big Bitcoin Bets Burn This Firm: What’s Next for the Cryptocurrency?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Week Ahead: GBPUSD upside likely capped around 1.24

By ForexTime

Various asset classes, from FX to stocks, have been swayed by how central bankers are going about trying to tame surging global inflation.

That theme will continue to be the focus in the coming week:

 

Monday, August 15

  • JPY: Japan 2Q GDP, June industrial production (final)
  • CNH: China July industrial production, retail sales, jobless rate

Tuesday, August 16

  • GBP: UK June unemployment rate, July jobless claims
  • EUR: Eurozone August ZEW survey expectations
  • USD: US July industrial production
  • Walmart Q2 earnings

Wednesday, August 17

  • NZD: RBNZ rate decision
  • GBP: UK July CPI
  • EUR: Eurozone 2Q GDP, unemployment
  • USD: FOMC minutes, US July retail sales
  • US crude: EIA weekly oil inventory report
  • Tencent 2Q earnings

Thursday, August 18

  • AUD: Australia July unemployment
  • EUR: Eurozone July CPI (final print)
  • USD: US weekly jobless claims; speeches by Kansas City Fed President Esther George and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

Friday, August 19

  • NZD: New Zealand July external trade
  • JPY: Japan July National CPI
  • GBP: UK July retail sales, August consumer confidence
  • CAD: Canada June retail sales

 

For the UK’s July consumer price index (CPI), markets are forecasting a year-on-year print of 9.9%.

If so, that would mark the fastest advance in UK inflation since the 10.2% print back in February 1982.

Though keep in mind that the Bank of England (BOE) had already forecasted double-digit inflation to arrive by October, hence it’ll be no surprise if the CPI print continues moving higher.

 

A higher-than-expected headline inflation print next week may not be enough to even prompt markets to significantly raise their bets that the Bank of England can proceed even with a 50-basis point hike at its September meeting.

  • A week ago, the odds of a 50bps hike in September was placed at 95.3%.
  • At the time of writing, markets are forecasting a 77% chance that the BOE can even follow through with such a “2-in-1” hike (rate adjustments by major central bankers are traditionally carried out at 25bps per policy meeting).

 

Markets have walked back bets of the BOE being overly aggressive with its rate hikes, given the cracks that are already showing in the UK economy:

  • Q2 GDP shrank 0.1% compared to Q1 (though slightly better than the -0.2% median estimate)
  • Industrial production fell 0.9% in June (second month-on-month contraction from the past 3)
  • Q2 private consumption contracted by 0.2% compared to Q1
  • Q2 imports fell by 1.5% quarter-on-quarter

 

Overall, it’s difficult to retain any optimism about the UK economic outlook, considering the ongoing cost of living crisis.

And the widely-held consensus is that the worst is yet to come, with a recession looming.

Such a woeful outlook, with the BOE already expecting a recession by the end of this year, is set to cap significant upside for the Pound.

Sterling has weakened against all of its G10 peers this week, except versus the US dollar.

 

While GBPUSD has found support at its 21-day simple moving average in recent sessions, upside appears capped around the 1.24 mark.

Should we see a resurgence in the US dollar in the coming week, perhaps fuelled by fresh hawkish clues out of the FOMC minutes or the scheduled speeches by Fed officials, that might see GBPUSD falling below its 21-day SMA and retesting the psychologically-important 1.20 level.

Weaker-than-expected UK jobs data, consumer confidence, and retail sales in the coming week could also prompt GBPUSD to revisit recent lows.

 


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

 

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, ETH). Overview for 12.08.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

The BTC is looking neutral on Friday and trading at $23,962. It feels like the asset is slowly pushing its trading range upwards. The BTC owes its positive momentum to improved sentiment in the US stock market – the major crypto has a direct correlation with S&P 500/NASDAQ. Indices moved upwards yesterday and the BTC followed. However, this enthusiasm disappeared by Thursday evening.

The current situation in the BTC is looking quite bullish. There are several important resistance levels at $25,000-$25,500, and it’s very important for bulls to break $25,000. The sooner they break it, the fewer chances investors will have to record a profit: everyone will be focused on buying.

At the end of this trading week, the capitalisation of the crypto market is estimated at 1.144 trillion; the fear index has grown to 42 points.

Coinbase rating declined

The S&P Global agency downgraded Coinbase long-term to ВВ from ВВ+, negative forecast. In the comments, the agency explained that the company had an unimpressive financial statement in the previous quarter. Another reason is an increase in competitive pressure.

ETH takes the centre stage

It became known yesterday that the Ethereum upgrade is known as the “The Merge”, and the whole network switch is now scheduled for 15 September, not 19. It’s going to be one of the most significant events in the history of the company and the entire crypto world. The point of this two-stage update (Bellatrix and Paris) is to shift the ecosystem to Proof-of-Stake. After the second stage, the platform will operate at its full power. The first stage, Bellatrix, is scheduled for 6 September. Apart from switching to Proof-of-Stake, the update will improve scalability and increase the network’s ecological sustainability.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 12.08.2022 (GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is testing Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.2130 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.2415. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.2040. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.1950.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is growing inside the bullish channel. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Kijun-Sen at 0.7040 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.7275. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6905. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6805. To confirm a further uptrend, the price must break the bearish channel’s upside border and fix above 0.7205.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is rebounding from Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test resistance area at 1.2790 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.2535. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.2940. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.3035.

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.08.12

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0298
  • Prev Close: 1.0319
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.20%

Data on Thursday showed that producer prices in the US unexpectedly fell in July amid falling energy costs. Meanwhile, core producer inflation is also trending lower. In the labor market, jobless claims rose for the second week in a row. Traders of federal funds futures contracts currently estimate a 66% chance of a 50 basis point increase and a 34% chance of a 75 basis point increase in September.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0286, 1.0247, 1.0201, 1.0112, 1.0035, 1.0000
  • Resistance levels: 1.0317, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.050

From a technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is now forming a small balance with the borders of 1.0286-1.0317. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best sought on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0286, but with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0317, but only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.0201 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.08.12:
  • – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2218
  • Prev Close: 1.2199
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.16%

In the UK, the week ends with Friday’s second quarter GDP report and manufacturing data. Markets expect weak data – GDP is forecasted to fall by 2.5% annually. For the quarter, GDP is forecast to be down by 0.2% after rising by 0.8% in the first quarter. The pound rose strongly on Wednesday thanks to US inflation data. But if GDP and manufacturing data are worse than forecast, the pound will likely lose ground.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2130, 1.2063, 1.2000
  • Resistance levels: 1.2240, 1.2294

From the technical point of view, the currency pair GBP/USD trend on the hour timeframe is still upward. The price has corrected to the levels of the moving averages, where a small balance is forming. The MACD indicator has become inactive. At the moment, it is best to look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2130, but only with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2240, but only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2063 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2022.08.12:
  • – UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 132.89
  • Prev Close: 132.97
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.06%

According to the Corpay chief strategist, in connection with the prospect of less aggressive monetary and credit policy from the Federal Reserve System, the appetite for risk has somewhat recovered, which allowed the Japanese yen to strengthen against the background of the dollar decline. But investors should not count on a long-term downward trend, as the difference in interest rates is not in favor of strengthening the Japanese Yen.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 132.41, 131.08, 130.85
  • Resistance levels: 134.36, 136.02, 137.12

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is still bullish. The price has formed an accumulation zone above the 134.36 level, so a test of this zone is very likely. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 132.41, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is possible to consider the level of resistance 134.36, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative, as fundamentally, USD/JPY quotes are inclined to grow.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 136.02, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2769
  • Prev Close: 1.2760
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.07%

Canadians have a chronic housing shortage, and the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation estimate that about six million housing units must be built by 2030 to make housing more affordable. Banks are considering lending to Canadians, but amid rising interest rates, the appeal of such lending and mortgage programs is falling. According to a recent Manulife survey, about a quarter of Canadian homeowners say they will have to sell their properties if interest rates continue to rise. A recession is also looming, which could prove disastrous for already overstretched owners.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2750, 1.2701
  • Resistance levels: 1.2817, 1.2871, 1.2918, 1.2965

In terms of technical analysis, the USD/CAD currency pair trend has changed to bearish. The price has consolidated below the priority change level and below the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become negative, but the divergence is observed. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level 1.2750, but only with confirmation and short targets. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level 1.2817 or 1.2871, but with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the 1.2871 resistance level, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.