Murrey Math Lines 31.08.2022 (USDJPY, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY is trading inside the “overbought area”. In this case, the price is expected to test 8/8, break it, and then continue falling and reach 7/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance at +1/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and grow towards +2/8.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue its decline.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

In the H4 chart, USDCAD is trading above the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating an ascending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to break 7/8 and continue growing towards the resistance at 8/8. On the other hand, this scenario may no longer be valid if the pair breaks the support at 6/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may reverse and fall to reach 4/8.

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue trading upwards to reach 8/8 from the H4 chart.

NZDUSD_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: USD

By ForexTime 

– This could be another big week for king dollar as all attention falls on Friday’s nonfarm payroll report.

After receiving fresh inspiration from Fed hawks last week, the greenback could charge higher if the pending US jobs data ticks all the boxes for more aggressive rate hikes. Alternatively, bulls may be humbled if the data fails to meet expectations. Whatever the outcome on Friday, it may be wise to brace for explosive levels of volatility, especially in the FX space.

With market players tense and on the fence ahead of this major event, the dollar remains in a range – waiting for a potent fundamental spark to make its next big move. With this catalyst likely to be the NFP, this could provide a great opportunity to identify trading opportunities for September.

Our focus today will be major currency pairs with our tool of choice none other than technical analysis.

DXY hovers around 109.00

The path of least resistance for the dollar points north but a fresh catalyst may be needed for bulls to switch into a higher gear. A solid breakout and daily close above 109.14 could encourage an incline towards 110.00. If bulls run out of steam, a decline back towards 108.25 and 107.30 could be on the cards.

Equally-weighted USD remains bullish

Just like the DXY, the equally weighted USD index remains bullish on the daily charts. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while the MACD trades to the upside. The upside momentum could take prices towards 1.2184 and potentially higher. A move back below 1.1950 may open the doors back towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average at 1.1860.

EURUSD to retest 0.9900?

After breaking below parity, the EURUSD has remained shaky and vulnerable to losses. Bears clearly remain in a position of power with their eyes locked on 0.9900. A strong breakdown below this point may indicate a selloff towards 0.9800 and lower.

GBPUSD ventures towards 1.1600

An appreciating dollar continues to drag the GBPUSD lower. A strong break below 1.1600 may result in a decline towards 1.1500. If 1.1600 proves to be reliable support, prices could retest 1.17600.

AUDUSD breakdown on the horizon

A solid breakdown below 0.06850 could encourage a selloff towards 0.6700. If prices manage to keep above 0.6850, a rebound towards 0.7000 may be a possibility.

USDJPY ready to breakout?

The USDJPY remains bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. Prices are trading above the 50, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Average while the MACD trades above zero. A strong breakout above 139.380 could inspire an incline towards 140.00. A move back below 135.00 may trigger a selloff towards the 100-day Simple Moving Average and 131.34, respectively.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, ETH). Overview for 31.08.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

The BTC recovered to $20,195 on Wednesday. Yesterday, the major cryptocurrency didn’t break its familiar range despite the fact that investors were selling it. The intermediate resistance lies at $20,350, and if the asset secures above it, there might be a pause in sales and the price might even rise to reach $21,000. To make bulls more active, the BTC must fix above $22,000.

The US stock market remains under pressure. Investors have few reasons to be happy in anticipation of another rate hike in September. Historically, it is believed that American exchanges fall more often than they rise in the first month of autumn. The expected decline might be about 1%. There is a correlation between S&P 500/NASDAQ and the BTC, and this connection is currently stronger than ever.

The capitalisation of the crypto market declined to $994 billion, and the share of the BTC dropped to 39.4%, while the ETH takes up 19.4%. The fear index is growing again – 27 points.

ETH: growth and stabilisation

After falling earlier, the key altcoin, the ETH, managed to recover and gain almost 12% – it is now trading at $1,565. Investors are waiting for September’s highlight – an upgrade to Ethereum 2.0 network and switching to PoS. These expectations might provide ETH with significant support.

Binance and Virtuzone will promote Web 3

Crypto exchange Binance together with Virtuzone are starting their operations under the recent partner agreement to promote Web 3 in United Arab Emirates.

CME introduced futures on cryptos and the Euro

CME announced the launch of trading futures contracts on BTC and the ETH denominated in EUR.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.08.31

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 0.9998
  • Prev Close: 1.0015
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.17%

Germany’s inflation climbed to an annual rate of 7.9% in August, returning to its all-time high of May, its highest level in almost 50 years. There are increasing signs from ECB officials that the Central Bank must aggressively hike rates at its next meeting. At the same time, there is a growing possibility that the US Federal Reserve will also raise rates by 0.75% at its next meeting. Traders raised their rates for the third consecutive 75 basis point increase in September to 76.5% from 70% following the release of US jobs data which showed that the US labor market remains strong.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 0.9951
  • Resistance levels: 1.0032, 1.0112, 1.0146, 1.0230, 1.0286, 1.0365

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price is trading between the moving averages, which makes it difficult to find good entry points. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but buyer pressure is weak. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best sought on intraday time frames from the support level of 0.9951, but with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from resistance levels of 1.0032, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out of the 1.0146 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.08.31:
  • – French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
  • – French GDP (q/q) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
  • – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1704
  • Prev Close: 1.1653
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.44%

The CBI’s business optimism balance, which measures the difference between the share of optimistic and pessimistic firms, has fallen to its lowest level since May 2020 for both consumer and business services. The energy crisis and rising inflation are hurting households and every business sector. At this point, all economic and fundamental factors point to weakness in the British economy, which is negatively affecting the national exchange rate.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1659, 1.1561
  • Resistance levels: 1.1715, 1.1814, 1.1838, 1.1901, 1.1994, 1.2035, 1.2167

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The British pound continues to lose ground. The price is trading below the moving levels, and the MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are the first signs of divergence. At the moment, it is better to look for sell trades from the resistance level of 1.1814, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades can be considered on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.1659 or 1.1561 if the price drops lower.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1901 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 138.74
  • Prev Close: 138.79
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.04%

The Japanese yen is under pressure from a soft monetary policy from Japan’s Central Bank. And as the US Fed continues to raise interest rates aggressively. The rate differential is widening, so the USD/JPY is inclined to rise fundamentally. Official data released Wednesday showed that industrial production in Japan increased by 1.0% in July from the previous month. Retail sales rose for the fifth straight month, raising hopes that the world’s third-largest economy will benefit from the strength in consumer spending this quarter.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 138.53, 137.67, 136.85, 135.89, 135.35, 134.23, 133.47, 132.27
  • Resistance levels: 139.40

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price is trading above the moving average lines again, and the buyers’ pressure is increasing. The MACD indicator remains positive, with no signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 138.53 or 137.67, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is possible to consider a resistance level of 139.40, but only with additional confirmation, as fundamentally, USD/JPY quotes are inclined to grow.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 136.85, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
News feed for 2022.08.31:
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3004
  • Prev Close: 1.3089
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.65%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the monetary policy of the Canadian Central Bank but also on the oil price. Oil decreased by $6 yesterday amid rumors that Iran and the US have reached an agreement on the nuclear deal, allowing Iran to export oil to the world markets again. The drop in oil had a negative effect on the Canadian currency.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3026, 1.2992, 1.2958, 1.2940, 1.2900, 1.2858, 1.2809, 1.2761
  • Resistance levels: 1.3105

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is now trading near the moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3027 or 1.2992, but only with confirmation. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3105, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.2900 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
News feed for 2022.08.31:
  • – Canada GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Another coronavirus outbreak in China. In Germany, inflation is at 50-year highs

By JustForex

Major Wall Street indices fell on Tuesday as a surge in US job openings pointed to a strong labor market, adding to concerns about the Federal Reserve’s aggressive approach to lowering inflation. At the stock market’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.96%, and the S&P 500 (US500) fell by 1.10%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 1.12% yesterday. Traders raised their rates for the third straight 75 basis point increase in September to 76.5% from 70%. All investors are now focused on the Nonfarm Payroll data for August, which will be released on Friday.

European stocks were mostly down on Tuesday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.53% yesterday, French CAC 40 (FR40) decreased by 0.19%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.12%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) was by 0.88% lower.

Inflation in Germany in August rose to 7.9% in annual terms, returning to the historical maximum recorded in May, which is the highest level in almost 50 years. Judging by the regional components of inflation, the biggest contributors to the rise in consumer prices come from rising gas and electricity prices, food prices, and higher prices for vacation tours. For the ECB, an increase in overall inflation in Germany will further fuel an internal debate about a more aggressive interest rate hike at the next meeting.

Carrefour’s CEO said French consumers are abandoning fish, buying cheaper meat, and rejecting organic products to save money on purchases. All the fault of high inflation, forcing consumers to save on food. Inflation has risen to record levels in major economies over the past year because of tight supply chains after COVID-19 and, more recently, soaring energy prices after Russia invaded Ukraine in February. France has shifted the cost of high inflation off consumers more aggressively than other eurozone countries, curbing gas and electricity prices and boosting revenues by raising wages for civil servants and pensioners, as well as through subsidies for the poor.

In Switzerland, the KOF economic barometer fell by 4.0 points in August and now stands at 86.5. This is well below the long-term average. Accordingly, the outlook for the Swiss economy in the near future seems less encouraging. The decline is primarily due to personal consumption, but negative signals come from the manufacturing and construction sectors.

Germany proposes to suspend the visa facilitation agreement with Russia. The Netherlands favors a complete ban on tourist visas for Russians.

Iran and the United States have reached an agreement on a nuclear deal, and it will be officially announced in the next two to three weeks, a former IAEA official told Iran International. The details of the agreement, as well as the IAEA official’s identity, are unknown, but the news triggered a wave of sales in the oil market. Oil fell by $6 yesterday. Analysts believe that with inflation approaching double-digit territory in many of the world’s biggest economies, that could prompt the US and European central banks to resort to more aggressive interest rate hikes, which could slow economic growth and affect fuel demand. Last week, Saudi Arabia raised the possibility of OPEC+ production cuts, which sources said could coincide with a resumption of supply from Iran if it closes a nuclear deal with the West. With most producers already operating at or above full capacity and signs that the global economy may be slowing, some supply cuts are becoming more likely in the coming months.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.14%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.37%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed at plus by 0.47%.

The Taiwanese military fired warning shots at a Chinese drone that flew over an island controlled by Taiwan. The situation in the region remains tense.

On Tuesday, August 30, several major Chinese cities tightened restrictions due to a new outbreak of COVID-19. Authorities have redoubled efforts to contain the coronavirus ahead of a key meeting of the ruling Communist Party this year. Nearly 4 million people in Hebei province, which surrounds Beijing, have been ordered to stay home for the rest of the week.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,986.16 −44.45 (−1.10%)

Dow Jones (US30) 31,790.87 −308.12 (−0.96%)

DAX (DE40) 12,961.14 +68.15 (+0.53%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,361.63 −65.68 (−0.88%)

USD Index 108.78 −0.06 (−0.06%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+3);
  • – China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
  • – French GDP (q/q) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
  • – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 30.08.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from 0.9914 and completing a new ascending structure at 1.0000, EURUSD is consolidating below the latter level. Possibly, the pair may expand the range up to 1.0030 and then resume moving downwards the target at 0.9830.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Having rebounded from 1.1648 and finished a new ascending wave at 1.1744, GBPUSD is consolidating below the latter level. After that, the instrument may break the range to the downside and resume falling with the target at 1.1600, or even extend this structure down to 1.1550.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After completing the ascending wave at 138.95, USDJPY is expected to correct down to 137.60 and may later form one more ascending structure with the target at 139.37.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is consolidating around 0.9664. Possibly, today the pair may break the range to the upside and resume growing towards 0.9755. After that, the instrument may start a new correction down to 0.9666.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

Having rebounded from 0.6840 and completed the correction at 0.6920, AUDUSD is consolidating below the latter level. Today, the pair may break the range to the downside and resume falling with the short-term target at 0.6800.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

After finishing the ascending wave at 103.23 and forming a new consolidation range around this level, Brent has broken it upwards and may soon reach 106.08. Later, the market may correct down to 103.23 and then start a new growth with the target at 109.00.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Having rebounded from 1720.30 and completed the correctional structure at 1745.40, Gold is consolidating below the latter level. Later, the market may break the range to the downside and resume trading downwards with the target at 1716.77, or even extend this structure down to 1707.77.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

After rebounding from 4004.0 and finishing the correctional structure at 4063.5, the S&P index is expected to resume falling towards 3929.0. Later, the market may start another correction with the target at 4100.0.

S&P 500

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

It’s even scary how weak the Pound is. Overview for 30.08.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD remains under pressure; the asset is trading at its 30-month lows.

On Tuesday morning, the Pound Sterling is looking as weak against the USD as before. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1715.

It appears that the British economy can’t handle one problem before another starts knocking on the door. This continuous stress makes the Pound one of the most “damaged” currencies in the last several months.

Now the United Kingdom is looking for ways to solve the energy price surge crisis. The government is working on new options to support households with energy subsidies. However, the major load will remain on consumers.

It is entirely possible that this autumn the United Kingdom will face large-scale public protests and strikes. The energy price surge pushes inflation higher, while employers don’t have any opportunities to raise salaries at the same pace.

Later in the afternoon, the United Kingdom is scheduled to report on Mortgage Approvals, which might drop a little bit in July. Another report to be published is Net Lending to Individuals for July. It is also expected to decline due to the rate hike. For the Pound, it’s moderately negative news.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

S&P 500 Bracing For More Pain Ahead Of NFP?

By ForexTime 

Global equity bulls lingered in the vicinity on Tuesday as market sentiment stabilized following the Fed induced sell-off last Friday. Stocks in Europe flashed green while US futures rallied thanks to the risk-on mood. Although investors seem to be digesting the Fed’s vow to tame soaring inflation, a sense of caution continues to linger in the air ahead of another busy week for financial markets.

Last Friday, the S&P 500 was beaten black and blue by a firmly hawkish Jerome Powell. After stating that the Fed had no plans for a dovish pivot and warning that economic growth may be hit by higher rates, the S&P 500 tumbled like a house of cards. According to Bloomberg, traders are pricing in a 73% probability of a 75-basis point rate hike in September. It is worth keeping in mind that higher interest rates impact company earnings and the prices of the stock.

This could be another wild week for the S&P 500 as investors brace for the US jobs report on Friday. Markets expect the US economy to have created 300k jobs in August while the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 3.5%. A report that surpasses expectations could reinforce aggressive rate hike bets – inviting S&P 500 bears back into the picture. In the meantime, the index remains under pressure on the daily charts, struggling to nurse the deep wounds inflicted by last Friday’s selloff.

Taking a look at the technical picture, prices remain under pressure on the monthly timeframe. There have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while the candlesticks are trading within a monthly bearish channel. Resistance can be found at 4300 while support resides at 3650. Given how bears remain in the driving seat, the next stop may be at 3650.

Things are looking slightly more colourful on the weekly charts. Prices are trading below the 50- and 100-week Simple Moving Average and still within a weekly bearish channel. However, support can be found at 3650 and the 200-week Simple Moving Average. After the beating last week, the S&P 500 may limp lower with 3650 acting as a key point of interest on the W1 timeframe.

There is more clarity and clues on the daily charts on the S&P 500 next potential move. After cutting through the 4121 level like a hot knife through butter, prices need to break away from the clutches of the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Average. Below this point, we have 3945 support, followed by 3810 and 3700, respectively.  Should bulls fight back, prices could rebound back towards 4121, 4200, and the 200-day Simple Moving Average at 4290.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

 

 

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.08.30

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 0.9964
  • Prev Close: 0.9998
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.34%

The euro moved closer to parity against the dollar on Monday as representatives of the European Central Bank started talking about a tentative rate hike. Opinions are split, with some bankers calling for a 50 basis point hike and others seeking a 75 bps increase. According to Refinitiv, the probability of a 75 basis point hike on September 8 jumped to 67%. The inflation report will also be released this week, giving more hints. A rise in inflation figures in the Eurozone would give confidence to the euro, as a 0.75% hike scenario would be more likely.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 0.9951
  • Resistance levels: 1.0032, 1.0112, 1.0146, 1.0230, 1.0286, 1.0365

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price is trading between the moving averages again, which makes it difficult to find good entry points. The MACD indicator has become positive. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best sought on intraday time frames from the support level of 0.9951, but with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from resistance levels of 1.0032, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out of the 1.0146 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.08.30:
  • – Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1722
  • Prev Close: 1.1705
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.14%

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. expects the UK economy to slip into recession later this year, with the risk of a deep recession amid a surge in energy prices. The UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to fall about 1% by mid-2023. The annual output is likely to fall by 0.6% next year. It is expected that the Bank of England may not want to tighten monetary policy sharply in the medium term, as a sharp growth cycle could exacerbate the impending recession. Against this backdrop, the sterling will lack the catalysts necessary for a sustained and prolonged recovery against the dollar.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1659
  • Resistance levels: 1.1715, 1.1814, 1.1838, 1.1901, 1.1994, 1.2035, 1.2167

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The British pound continues to lose ground. The price is trading below the moving levels, and the MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are the first signs of divergence. At the moment, it is better to look for sell trades from the resistance level of 1.1715 or 1.1814, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades can be considered on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.1659, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1901 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 137.63
  • Prev Close: 138.70
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.78%

The Japanese yen depreciated after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced a hawkish stance by the central bank’s board. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has pledged to maintain a soft monetary policy and is actively suppressing the Japanese Government Bond yield curve (JGB). Keeping rates low leads to further weakening of the yen.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 138.58, 137.49, 136.85, 135.89, 135.35, 134.23, 133.47, 132.27
  • Resistance levels: 139.40

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price is trading above the moving average lines again, and the buyers’ pressure is increasing. The MACD indicator is positive. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 137.49, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is possible to consider a resistance level of 139.40, but only with additional confirmation, as fundamentally, the USD/JPY quotes are inclined to grow.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 136.85, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3031
  • Prev Close: 1.3011
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.15%

Crude oil prices jumped about 4% on Monday as expectations of OPEC+ cartel production cuts increase with each day. Apparently, OPEC+ countries are getting greedy and trying to push oil prices back to this year’s highs. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so rising oil prices are strengthening the Canadian dollar. In the near future, the USD/CAD rate dynamics will be determined only by changes in oil prices since the interest rates of the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve are at the same level.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2958, 1.2940, 1.2900, 1.2858, 1.2809, 1.2761
  • Resistance levels: 1.3043, 1.3090, 1.3105

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is now trading near the moving averages and near the support areas. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2958 or 1.2940, but only with confirmation. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3043, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.2900 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial markets remain under pressure from Friday’s Jerome Powell speech at Jackson Hole

By JustForex

The decline in technology, which began on Friday, continued into the new trading week under pressure from rising Treasury bond yields. The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.57% at Monday’s close of the stock market. The S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.67%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 1.63% yesterday. The Jackson Hole document warns that without fiscal tightening, there will be a vicious cycle of rising nominal interest rates, inflation, economic stagnation, and debt.

On the other hand, high levels of federal debt and continued increases in government spending will contribute to the public perception that inflation will remain high. But according to analysts, because high inflation was driven by fiscal spending in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, simply raising interest rates will not be enough to lower inflation. Thus, the Fed can reduce inflation only when the national debt is successfully stabilized with credible future budget plans. New research shows that without limits on budget spending, raising rates will make the cost of debt more expensive and raise inflation expectations even more.

European stocks fell on Monday, with technology stocks leading the decline. At the same time, bond yields rose as central bank comments reinforced fears of aggressive measures to curb inflation amid rising recession risks. Germany’s DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.61% yesterday, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.83%, Spain’s IBEX 35 Index (ES35) lost 0.92%, Britain’s FTSE 100 (UK100) did not trade on Monday due to the bank holiday.

German 10-year bond yields rose by 10 bps to a two-month high. European Central Bank (ECB) governor Isabel Schnabel warned over the weekend that central banks must act decisively to fight inflation, even if it drags the economy into recession. Other representatives of the governing council, François Villeroy and politician Martins Kazaks, also signaled another significant rate hike in September. ECB chief economist Lane, considered one of the most dovish on the committee, also called for higher rates, but perhaps at a less aggressive pace. Currently, markets are counting on a 76% chance that the ECB will raise rates by 75 basis points in September, up from 24% last week.

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. expects the UK economy to slip into recession later this year, with the risk of a deep recession amid a surge in energy prices. The UK gross domestic product is expected to fall about 1% by mid-2023.

The EU will hold an emergency meeting of energy ministers on September 9 to discuss rising energy prices.

Crude oil prices jumped about 4% on Monday as expectations of production cuts by the expanded OPEC+ cartel grow by the day. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia, and its ten oil-producing partners will meet on September 5. Nearly every country in the alliance, except Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, now produces less than its quota. Clearly, OPEC+ countries are getting greedy and trying to push oil prices back to this year’s highs.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.79%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.73%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed at 0.29%.

The Chinese yuan fell to its lowest level in two years as a hawkish Fed signaled further rate hikes. The Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) are the only two major central banks that are not on a tightening cycle. Because of this, the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan are under pressure.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,030.61 −27.05 (−0.67%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,098.99 −184.41 (−3.03%)

DAX (DE40) 12,892.99 −78.48 (−0.61%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,427.31 −52.43 (−0.70%)

USD Index 108.79 −0.02 (−0.02%)

Important events for today:
  • – Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.