22 Aug

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.08.22

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0089
  • Prev Close: 1.0038
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.51%

Europe’s economy is at risk of recession due to threats of energy rationing, record inflation, and tighter monetary policy. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has become the region’s weak spot as its huge industrial base suffers from rising energy prices and persistent supply shortages. Supply managers’ indices, due out Tuesday, will tell traders whether the region’s economy is heading for a recession or not. The July ECB meeting minutes may indicate whether investors should prepare for another 50 basis point rate hike in September. But given widespread inflationary pressures, analysts are confident of such a hike, with about a third of analysts leaning toward a 75 basis point increase.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0033, 1.0000
  • Resistance levels: 1.0112, 1.0146, 1.0230, 1.0286, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.050.

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The euro continues to lose ground. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are the first signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0033, but with a confirmation in the form of reverse initiative. Sell trades can be considered from resistance levels of 1.0112, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out of the 1.0230 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.08.22:
There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1927
  • Prev Close: 1.1829
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.82%

According to analysts, the UK’s bleak economic outlook overshadows any gains that the British pound could get from a rapid rise in interest rates. Another record inflation figure last week prompted traders to bet that the Bank of England will more than double its key rate to 3.75%. Options traders remain decidedly bearish on the British currency. In theory, a rate hike should act as a tailwind for currencies and a headwind for bonds. But the UK has poor growth prospects, price pressures, and policy rate uncertainty.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1811
  • Resistance levels: 1.1903, 1.2000, 1.2035, 1.2167, 1.2215, 1.2294

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price is now trading below the moving averages, indicating selling pressure. The MACD indicator has become negative, but there are no signs of divergence. At the moment, it is better to look for sell trades from the resistance level of 1.1903, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades can be considered on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.1811, but only with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2034 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 135.86
  • Prev Close: 136.89
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.76%

The US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in late July sent the dollar index sharply higher, even though the Central Bank raised its interest rate by 75 basis points. Over the past three weeks, the Japanese yen has fallen against the dollar again as interest rate differentials and opposed monetary policy put upward pressure on the USD/JPY quotes. And no change is expected soon.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 135.89, 135.35, 134.23, 133.47, 132.27, 131.08, 130.85
  • Resistance levels: 137.10, 138.25

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The USD/JPY quotes continue to grow steadily, breaking through all the resistance levels. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 135.89, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is possible to consider the resistance level of 137.10, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative, as fundamentally, USD/JPY quotes are inclined to grow.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 134.23, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2944
  • Prev Close: 1.2991
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.36%

Last week, the Canadian dollar suffered the same fate as the other currencies: the US dollar took the lead after markets reacted positively to the July Fed meeting minutes. Oil prices also declined over the week, which had a negative impact on the Canadian currency. But retail sales data helped the Canadian offset some of Friday’s losses, signaling a gradual and consistent improvement in the retail sector.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2858, 1.2809, 1.2761
  • Resistance levels: 1.3006

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone. The buyers’ pressure is still there, but the price is traded before the resistance level, plus the divergence is getting stronger. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2900, but only with confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3006, but also with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.2858 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
22 Aug

The economic outlook for Europe continues to deteriorate. The People’s Bank of China lowered interest rates again

By JustForex

The US stock indices were trading lower on Friday. By the closing of the stock market, Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.85% (-0.01% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.29% (-0.96% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.01% (-2.24% for the week). Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft all fell, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slowed the most. Higher rates tend to be negative for technology companies and growth stocks.

Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that US Central Bank officials still have plenty of time before they need to decide how much to raise interest rates in September. The recovery in US stocks is inspiring confidence among investors. The S&P 500 (US500) rebounded about 16% from its low after its worst first half since 1970, helped by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, and hopes the economy can avoid a recession.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 1.12% (-2.19% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.94% (-1.32% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 1.09% (-1.05% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) was up by 0.11% (+0.66% for the week).

In the last few days, Europe has been hit by the rains. Water levels in a key German bottleneck on the Rhine River jumped, easing a crisis that has hampered energy and industrial production this month. An extended period of very hot and dry weather this summer drained Europe’s rivers, disrupting the transportation of goods and energy at a time when the region needs alternative energy sources instead of gas the most. This helped push natural gas prices to record highs, increasing inflationary pain for industries and households and threatening to push Germany into recession.

On Sunday, a senior ministry official said that energy-intensive industries in Italy are also modifying their production to save energy as they struggle with rising bills. Italy recently struck deals with several alternative gas-producing countries to reduce its dependence on Moscow. Those agreements allowed Rome to fill its gas storage facilities quickly, but it was not enough to protect its industry from skyrocketing energy prices.

Oil prices stabilized on Friday but fell over the week because of a stronger US dollar and fears that the economic slowdown would weaken demand for crude oil. The strengthening US dollar hit a five-week high, which limited the rise in oil prices as it makes oil more expensive for buyers in other currencies. Haitham al-Gais, the new secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, told Reuters he was optimistic about oil demand in 2023.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.04% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.32% for the week, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up by 1.17% for the week.

Earlier this year, the COVID-19 shutdown in China disrupted global supply chains, causing delays in shipments and production worldwide and hampering economic growth. Now the country faces another severe threat, and that threat could be even worse for the economy. This month, China is battling its worst heat wave in 60 years. In Sichuan province, home to more than 80 million people, the record-breaking heat wave has exacerbated an ongoing drought that has caused reservoir levels to drop by half this month. As a result, officials announced on Aug. 15 that factories in 19 cities and prefectures would be forced to close for five days to save power.

The People’s Bank Loan Prime Rate rate was cut for the second time in two weeks. The move comes as the bank struggles to stimulate the economy amid headwinds from COVID lockdowns, a debt-laden real estate market, and a looming energy crisis.

In the commodities market, futures on natural gas (+5.84%) and cotton (+3.64%) showed the largest gains over the week. Futures on lumber (-12.23%), silver (-8.37%), platinum (-7.31%), wheat (-6.33%), orange juice (-5. 91%), palladium (-4.03%), coffee (-3.96%), sugar (-3.06%), gold (-3.04%), soybeans (-2.88%), WTI oil (-2.68%), and Brent oil (-2.1%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,228.48 −55.26 (−1.29%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,706.74 −292.30 (−0.86%)

DAX (DE40) 13,544.52 −152.89 (−1.12%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,550.37 +8.52 (+0.11%)

USD Index 108.10 +0.62 (+0.58%)

Important events for today:
  • – China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 04:15 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
22 Aug

Trade of the Week: USD Index back above 1.20?

By ForexTime 

– Shame on those who doubted the Dollar (at least of late).

The greenback has staged a recovery and is on a quest to revisit recent highs, as markets restore their bets for an ultra-hawkish Fed.

As a result, major G10 currencies are wilting under the weight of the resurgent buck:

  • EURUSD is flirting with parity again, having last done so in mid-July.
  • GBPUSD also hit a one-month low, trading around levels not seen since the onset of the pandemic.

Such moves are captured within the equally-weighted US Dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance against these six G10 currencies:

  1. GBP
  2. EUR
  3. CHF
  4. CAD
  5. AUD
  6. NZD

As a result, this USD Index is retesting the mid-1.19 resistance levels which had previously repelled dollar bulls in mid-May and mid-June, also around where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level currently sits from its July-august descent.

 

Whether or not the US dollar can punch higher and break above the psychologically-important 1.20 level could well depend on what’s conveyed out of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium later this week.

 

What is the Jackson Hole Symposium and why it matters?

Organized by the Kansas City Fed, this year’s gathering will be held from August 25th – 27th in Jackson Hole, Wyoming (though recent symposiums have been held virtually as well due to the pandemic).

This annual conference features the top central bankers, economists, academics, and even government representatives, where they discuss the most important issues facing the global economy, as well as how policymakers could and should respond.

In other words, what is said during this closely-watched symposium has the potential to prompt market participants to move trillions of dollars across asset classes including stocks, bonds, and currencies.

And Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech that’s scheduled for this Friday, August 26th, at 2:00 PM GMT, is set to dominate the market’s collective attention this week.

What Powell says (or doesn’t say) could dictate how global markets perform in the weeks ahead.

 

What markets want to know out of Jackson Hole?

Markets want to know how much the Fed intends to raise US interest rates for its September meeting, and beyond.

 

1) As things stand, markets are forecasting a 63.7% chance of yet another 75-basis point (bps) hike by the Fed at its September policy meeting.

Those odds have been increased substantially from 46.8% just from this time last week. Hence, the US dollar rising over the past week in tandem with such restored bets.

If the Fed does proceed with yet another 75bps hike, that would be its third successive supersized hike, following similar 75bps hikes at each of the Fed’s policy meetings back in June and July.

 

2) Markets also presently believe that that US benchmark rates could go up as high as 3.7% by May 2023, as the Fed continues aggressively raising interest rates to combat multi-decade high inflation.

 

Major deviations from the above (the existing narrative that markets are holding on to at present) should result in major moves for the US dollar.

 

Potential scenarios for USD Index:

  • Should Powell signal that the Fed has to stay aggressive to bring down US inflation (think more 75bps hikes in Q4), that could mean more immediate gains for the US dollar.

    If the 1.20536 Fibonacci level can be conquered, then this equally-weighted USD Index could be on the path to revisit the mid-July peak above 1.21.

 

  • However, if Powell officially signals that the Fed can start to ease up on its rate hikes on signs that US inflation has peaked, that could prompt the unwinding of last week’s gains for the US dollar.

    Support may arrive at the:
    – previous cycle high of 1.19102, followed by …
    – the next Fib line below at 1.18769
    – 50-day simple moving average around 1.183

 

Despite the Fed’s suggestions to pay less attention to what it says it will do (forward guidance is less meaningful over the immediate term), but instead pay greater heed to the incoming US economic data (such as nonfarm payrolls and CPI), that likely won’t be enough to dissuade forward-looking investors and traders worldwide from reacting to Powell’s policy clues.

In short, don’t be surprised if we see heightened volatility for the US Dollar and the rest of the FX universe as the Jackson Hole symposium looms.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions
20 Aug

Forex Speculators boost Canadian Dollar bets to 58-week high while Euro bets drop to 128-week low

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes Week 33: CAD bets up, Euro bets down

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator positions.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican peso (6,250 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (5,644 contracts), Brazilian real (4,790 contracts), Swiss franc (4,686 contracts), New Zealand dollar (2,045 contracts), British pound sterling (1,359 contracts) and Bitcoin (137 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Euro (-8,248 contracts) with the Japanese yen (-3,859 contracts), Australian dollar (-1,660 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-676 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

 

Highlighting the COT currency changes this week is the Canadian dollar‘s recent gains in the speculator positions. The CAD positions rose this week and have now gained for five straight weeks and in ten out of the past thirteen weeks for a total 13-week gain of +41,363 contracts. The speculative position had fallen into bearish territory from April 26th to June 7th before getting a large sentiment boost by +24,264 contracts on June 14th that flipped the position from bearish to bullish. Since then, the bullish position has steadily increased and this week, reached the most bullish level since July 6th of 2021, a span of fifty-eight weeks.

Euro speculative bets this week, meanwhile, fell for the first time in the past four weeks but made a new low for this recent bearish cycle. Euro bets dropped by over -8,000 contracts this week and have now been in an overall bearish position for the past ten weeks. The decline of bets this week brought the current speculator standing to the most bearish level since March 3rd of 2020, a span of one hundred and twenty-eight weeks. The EURUSD currency pair fell rather sharply to end the week (weekly decline by over -2.00 percent) and closed just a hair above parity at the 1.0041 exchange rate. The EURUSD dropped below parity for a quick time on July 14th with a low of 0.9952 (20-year lows) before staging a rally back over 1.0350 in the following weeks but with deteriorating speculator sentiment, it seems possible the pair will be testing below parity again.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-16-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index58,9098637,96188-40,673112,71246
EUR698,57081-42,7842220,9168221,86811
GBP227,75262-33,1094647,21759-14,10826
JPY228,69774-28,8915141,97956-13,08827
CHF39,40720-5,0964413,61665-8,52029
CAD147,5962926,86770-32,129425,26241
AUD160,04552-59,2483063,47066-4,22242
NZD41,729281,7697419531-1,96429
MXN201,61850-21,3711817,803803,56858
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL38,079246,52357-8,659432,13690
Bitcoin12,42369-9379-260035321

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (88.2 percent) remains at the highest levels for the currency markets and continues in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Bitcoin (78.6 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (74.2 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (69.5 percent) round out the next highest strength scores in the currency markets. On the downside, the Mexican Peso (18.2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level and is in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent). The next currencies at the lower range of strength scores are the EuroFX at 21.9 percent and the Australian Dollar at 29.9 percent.

 


Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (88.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (89.4 percent)
EuroFX (21.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (24.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (46.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (45.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (51.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (53.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (43.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (31.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (69.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (63.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (29.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (31.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (74.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (70.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (18.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.6 percent)
Brazil Real (56.8 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (52.1 percent)
Bitcoin (78.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (76.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Canadian Dollar (25.3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The British Pound Sterling (18.0 percent), the Japanese Yen (15.7 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (14.8 percent) fill out the other highest movers in the latest trends data. The Australian Dollar (-10.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the Brazilian Real (-9.6 percent) followed by Bitcoin (-9.3 percent) and the EuroFX (-8.0 percent).

 


Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-2.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-7.7 percent)
EuroFX (-8.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-7.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (18.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (14.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (15.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (17.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (12.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-3.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (25.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (13.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-10.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-13.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (14.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (-3.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-5.8 percent)
Brazil Real (-9.6 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-34.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-9.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-23.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 37,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:86.23.58.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.872.63.6
– Net Position:37,961-40,6732,712
– Gross Longs:50,7822,0784,843
– Gross Shorts:12,82142,7512,131
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.0 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.211.246.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.21.35.0

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of -42,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,248 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,536 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.557.311.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.654.38.3
– Net Position:-42,78420,91621,868
– Gross Longs:199,226400,45879,589
– Gross Shorts:242,010379,54257,721
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.982.010.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.08.4-6.0

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -33,109 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.468.68.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.947.814.9
– Net Position:-33,10947,217-14,108
– Gross Longs:44,084156,16719,890
– Gross Shorts:77,193108,95033,998
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.158.726.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.0-17.913.9

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -28,891 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.466.69.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.148.215.1
– Net Position:-28,89141,979-13,088
– Gross Longs:51,308152,20921,465
– Gross Shorts:80,199110,23034,553
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.156.126.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.7-10.8-7.0

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -5,096 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,686 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.755.224.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.720.746.5
– Net Position:-5,09613,616-8,520
– Gross Longs:7,77321,7679,809
– Gross Shorts:12,8698,15118,329
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.665.228.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.8-10.34.8

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,644 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.139.622.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.961.418.9
– Net Position:26,867-32,1295,262
– Gross Longs:51,84358,47633,129
– Gross Shorts:24,97690,60527,867
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.6 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.542.040.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:25.3-23.010.1

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -59,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,660 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,588 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.069.310.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.029.613.0
– Net Position:-59,24863,470-4,222
– Gross Longs:28,835110,91816,660
– Gross Shorts:88,08347,44820,882
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.966.242.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.85.89.4

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,045 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.149.65.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.949.110.6
– Net Position:1,769195-1,964
– Gross Longs:18,41220,6882,458
– Gross Shorts:16,64320,4934,422
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.230.729.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.8-15.917.3

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of -21,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,621 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.942.73.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.533.81.6
– Net Position:-21,37117,8033,568
– Gross Longs:108,64285,9976,782
– Gross Shorts:130,01368,1943,214
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.280.258.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.03.2-3.2

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,523 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,733 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:67.722.79.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.545.44.1
– Net Position:6,523-8,6592,136
– Gross Longs:25,7628,6373,679
– Gross Shorts:19,23917,2961,543
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.5 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.842.889.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.68.512.5

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -93 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:74.72.09.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:75.54.16.8
– Net Position:-93-260353
– Gross Longs:9,2842501,202
– Gross Shorts:9,377510849
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.642.621.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.311.77.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News investing Opinions
20 Aug

COT Metals Speculators raise Platinum bullish bets higher for 3rd week

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes Week 33: Platinum bullish bets rise

COT precious metals speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week with just one market had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Platinum (2,094 contracts) with Silver (629 contracts), Palladium (371 contracts) and Copper (257 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-1,687 contracts) on the week.

Highlighting the metals data this week is that Platinum speculator bets that have bounced back a bit over the past three weeks after a recent down-streak that put the position in negative territory. The Platinum large speculator positions rose this week for a third straight week and for the fourth time over the past five weeks. This recent uptick has pulled the overall position out of a bearish level that had held from June 28th to August 2nd. This week, the current position increased into a small bullish level of +2,940 contracts. The Platinum futures price, meanwhile, took a step back this week with a loss. The futures had previously seen four straight weekly gains before closing the week below the $900.00 level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-16-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,557,3490214,9401-239,29110024,35148
Gold453,9600141,16419-153,7098412,5454
Silver144,314113,50810-12,451908,94312
Copper183,50017-28,2202228,93279-71221
Palladium7,9517-1,599141,536836348
Platinum57,254172,94012-6,361903,42110
Natural Gas983,4605-120,9114282,8625738,04970
Brent176,90221-36,0125134,290501,72233
Heating Oil296,9873424,92679-40,0222915,09651
Soybeans595,095583,18339-51,65068-31,53318
Corn1,316,4621220,12958-166,31848-53,81112
Coffee190,302033,47168-35,318371,84716
Sugar737,535749,97047-61,8375611,86723
Wheat313,23711-1,908177,44870-5,54082

 

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper is the highest metals market currently at just 22.0 percent of its 3-year range. The rest of the metals markets are all in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent) and have been for a while now. Gold (18.6 percent), Palladium (13.8 percent), Platinum (12.0 percent) and Silver (9.7 percent) round out the rest of the metals market in strength scores.

 


Strength Statistics:
Gold (18.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (19.2 percent)
Silver (9.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (9.0 percent)
Copper (22.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (21.9 percent)
Platinum (12.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (9.2 percent)
Palladium (13.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (11.7 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Palladium (10.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Platinum (7.7 percent) and Copper (2.6 percent) are the only other positive movers in the latest trends data. Silver (-2.0 percent) and Gold (-1.7 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently but have both improved since last week.

 


Move Statistics:
Gold (-1.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (-5.7 percent)
Silver (-2.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-9.7 percent)
Copper (2.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (1.6 percent)
Platinum (7.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (2.9 percent)
Palladium (10.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 141,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,687 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 142,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.527.08.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.460.95.6
– Net Position:141,164-153,70912,545
– Gross Longs:238,196122,56637,826
– Gross Shorts:97,032276,27525,281
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.683.73.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.74.3-20.2

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 3,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,879 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.241.416.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.750.09.9
– Net Position:3,508-12,4518,943
– Gross Longs:47,85159,75323,230
– Gross Shorts:44,34372,20414,287
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.8 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.790.012.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.0-0.812.0

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -28,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.546.47.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.930.78.1
– Net Position:-28,22028,932-712
– Gross Longs:46,79785,18714,097
– Gross Shorts:75,01756,25514,809
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.079.321.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.6-1.7-6.8

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 846 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.839.711.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.750.85.3
– Net Position:2,940-6,3613,421
– Gross Longs:26,21822,7496,467
– Gross Shorts:23,27829,1103,046
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.8 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.090.29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.7-6.1-13.7

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,599 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.654.915.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.735.614.3
– Net Position:-1,5991,53663
– Gross Longs:1,4794,3631,202
– Gross Shorts:3,0782,8271,139
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.5 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.883.447.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.2-14.343.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog investing Metals Opinions
20 Aug

Large Bond Speculators drop 5-Year Bonds bets lower for 4th Week to 24-Week low

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes Week 33: 5-Year Bonds bets hit 24-week low

COT bond market speculator bets were mixed on the week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds Futures (87,697 contracts) with the Eurodollar (16,102 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (14,667 contracts) and the Long US Bond (261 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the 5-Year Bond (-116,372 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (-76,650 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (-41,827 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-13,607 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

The 5-Year Treasury Bond Futures saw their speculator bets drop sharply again this week. The 5-Year fell for the fourth straight week and for the seventh time in the past eight weeks for an eight-week total decline by -363,294 contracts. This recent weakness has pushed the overall speculator standing to the lowest level since March 1st, a span of twenty-four weeks. Overall, the 5-Year market is now very close to the bottom of it’s 3-year speculator sentiment range (1.2 percent strength score on a scale of 0-100) and has seen that strength score fall by -37.4 percent over the past six weeks (6-week trend score).

The 5-Year Bond price has continued in a downtrend and it’s yield closed the week (yields rise when bond prices fall) higher around 3.09 percent. Currently, the 5-Year yield (3.09%) is inverted with the 10-Year yield (2.97%), meaning that the shorter bond pays more yield than the longer bond and overall, an unusual occurrence.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-16-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Eurodollar9,585,91115-2,869,87703,208,50398-338,62630
FedFunds1,665,3655488,65851-93,150494,49271
2-Year2,124,68815-214,04839249,55374-35,50534
Long T-Bond1,167,91539-47,3256921,2071826,11873
10-Year3,520,46831-363,12817470,73278-107,60454
5-Year4,066,73055-467,3751621,46889-154,09339

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (69.2 percent) continues to generate the highest spec strength score for bonds and just a edge up from last week’s score of 69.1 percent. The Fed Funds (50.6 percent) comes in as the next highest bonds market in strength scores and the only other one above its 3-year midpoint of 50 percent. On the downside, the Eurodollar (0.3 percent), the 5-Year Bond (1.2 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (17.2 percent) come in as the lowest strength scores currently and are all in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent).

 


Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (50.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (39.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (39.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (47.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (1.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (21.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (17.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (28.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (20.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (16.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (69.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (69.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (32.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (37.8 percent)
Eurodollar (0.3 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (0.0 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed  that all of the bonds markets this week had negative trend scores. The Fed Funds (-0.9 percent) had the least negative trend score followed by the Ultra 10-Year Bond (-2.4 percent) and the US Treasury Bond (-6.4 percent). The most negative downside trend scores were led by the 5-Year Bond (-37.4 percent) followed by the 10-Year Bond (-29.3 percent), the 2-Year Bond (-25.6 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-23.0 percent).

 

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-0.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-14.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-25.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-14.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-37.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-26.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-29.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-15.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-2.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-5.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-6.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-23.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-9.5 percent)
Eurodollar (-9.6 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (-13.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,869,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,885,979 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.571.34.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.437.88.1
– Net Position:-2,869,8773,208,503-338,626
– Gross Longs:429,0276,835,497434,367
– Gross Shorts:3,298,9043,626,994772,993
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.398.429.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.610.3-13.0

 

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 88,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 87,697 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.671.02.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.376.62.3
– Net Position:88,658-93,1504,492
– Gross Longs:243,2641,183,00743,138
– Gross Shorts:154,6061,276,15738,646
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.648.671.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.9-0.630.8

 

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -214,048 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -41,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -172,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.580.97.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.669.29.1
– Net Position:-214,048249,553-35,505
– Gross Longs:180,8581,718,780158,017
– Gross Shorts:394,9061,469,227193,522
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.074.433.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.617.120.4

 

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -467,375 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -116,372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -351,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.583.77.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.068.411.2
– Net Position:-467,375621,468-154,093
– Gross Longs:265,7413,402,691299,503
– Gross Shorts:733,1162,781,223453,596
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.289.038.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-37.426.4-1.0

 

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -363,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -76,650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -286,478 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.081.59.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.368.212.5
– Net Position:-363,128470,732-107,604
– Gross Longs:209,8212,870,103332,003
– Gross Shorts:572,9492,399,371439,607
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.277.854.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.319.86.0

 

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -32,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,667 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.684.710.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.271.320.7
– Net Position:-32,000160,566-128,566
– Gross Longs:54,9651,016,979120,448
– Gross Shorts:86,965856,413249,014
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.581.541.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.43.7-3.3

 

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -47,325 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.676.814.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.774.912.2
– Net Position:-47,32521,20726,118
– Gross Longs:88,791896,481168,447
– Gross Shorts:136,116875,274142,329
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.218.273.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.4-0.316.2

 

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -374,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -361,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.082.511.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.357.98.3
– Net Position:-374,923337,61437,309
– Gross Longs:55,0631,133,222150,925
– Gross Shorts:429,986795,608113,616
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.380.255.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.025.33.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).

See CFTC criteria here.

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing
20 Aug

Sugar, Live Cattle & Soybean Oil lead Soft Commodity Speculator bets higher

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes: COT Week 33

COT soft commodities speculator bets were mostly higher this week as nine out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while just two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Sugar (23,905 contracts) with Live Cattle (12,806 contracts), Soybean Oil (9,956 contracts), Corn (9,343 contracts), Cotton (7,985 contracts), Lean Hogs (7,809 contracts), Coffee (3,018 contracts), Cocoa (2,784 contracts) and Wheat (1,518 contracts) also having higher weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Soybeans (-5,718 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-13 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

 

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-16-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,557,3490214,9401-239,29110024,35148
Gold453,9600141,16419-153,7098412,5454
Silver144,314113,50810-12,451908,94312
Copper183,50017-28,2202228,93279-71221
Palladium7,9517-1,599141,536836348
Platinum57,254172,94012-6,361903,42110
Natural Gas983,4605-120,9114282,8625738,04970
Brent176,90221-36,0125134,290501,72233
Heating Oil296,9873424,92679-40,0222915,09651
Soybeans595,095583,18339-51,65068-31,53318
Corn1,316,4621220,12958-166,31848-53,81112
Coffee190,302033,47168-35,318371,84716
Sugar737,535749,97047-61,8375611,86723
Wheat313,23711-1,908177,44870-5,54082

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (89.9 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and remains in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Lean Hogs (69.9 percent) comes in as the next highest soft commodity markets market in strength scores with Coffee (67.8 percent), Corn (58.2 percent) and Live Cattle (56.3 percent) following. On the downside, Cocoa (14.9 percent) and Wheat (16.6 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are both in extreme bearish level (below 20 percent).

 


Strength Statistics:
Corn (58.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (57.0 percent)
Sugar (46.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (42.0 percent)
Coffee (67.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (65.1 percent)
Soybeans (39.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (41.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (31.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (24.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (89.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (89.9 percent)
Live Cattle (56.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (40.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (69.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (61.4 percent)
Cotton (50.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (45.7 percent)
Cocoa (14.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (12.2 percent)
Wheat (16.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (14.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Live Cattle (51.8 percent) and Lean Hogs (46.6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the soft commodity markets. Soybean Meal (9.0 percent), Soybean Oil (4.3 percent) and Cocoa (4.2 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data. Wheat (-13.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were Soybeans (-12.9 percent) followed by Coffee (-11.5 percent).

 


Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-5.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-15.0 percent)
Sugar (-6.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-19.9 percent)
Coffee (-11.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-12.7 percent)
Soybeans (-12.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-14.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-9.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (9.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (10.2 percent)
Live Cattle (51.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (26.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (46.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (36.9 percent)
Cotton (-4.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.9 percent)
Cocoa (4.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-11.7 percent)
Wheat (-13.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-14.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 220,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 210,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.948.89.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.261.413.2
– Net Position:220,129-166,318-53,811
– Gross Longs:367,371642,350120,568
– Gross Shorts:147,242808,668174,379
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.248.212.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.25.9-0.3

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 49,970 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 23,905 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,065 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.253.89.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.562.27.7
– Net Position:49,970-61,83711,867
– Gross Longs:171,404396,58868,600
– Gross Shorts:121,434458,42556,733
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.956.422.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.94.412.5

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 33,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,018 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,453 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.752.15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.170.64.0
– Net Position:33,471-35,3181,847
– Gross Longs:45,06299,0689,438
– Gross Shorts:11,591134,3867,591
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.837.216.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.512.5-4.6

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 83,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,718 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,901 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.355.06.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.363.611.3
– Net Position:83,183-51,650-31,533
– Gross Longs:144,698327,09835,752
– Gross Shorts:61,515378,74867,285
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.9 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.568.117.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.912.50.5

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 40,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,007 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.554.97.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.266.55.7
– Net Position:40,963-46,7585,795
– Gross Longs:74,046220,23428,767
– Gross Shorts:33,083266,99222,972
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.170.835.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.3-5.16.9

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 112,163 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,176 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.839.711.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.772.56.0
– Net Position:112,163-135,85923,696
– Gross Longs:127,369164,27748,624
– Gross Shorts:15,206300,13624,928
– Long to Short Ratio:8.4 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.912.355.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.0-12.035.5

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 61,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.434.811.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.157.012.4
– Net Position:61,388-58,750-2,638
– Gross Longs:106,71391,93230,154
– Gross Shorts:45,325150,68232,792
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.332.872.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:51.8-52.3-11.1

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 58,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,197 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.431.89.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.352.312.9
– Net Position:58,006-49,401-8,605
– Gross Longs:102,20176,59222,371
– Gross Shorts:44,195125,99330,976
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.935.151.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:46.6-51.12.1

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.845.07.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.870.94.1
– Net Position:44,208-50,0785,870
– Gross Longs:68,97986,76713,871
– Gross Shorts:24,771136,8458,001
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.849.448.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.02.711.9

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.048.94.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.948.83.6
– Net Position:-2,7781802,598
– Gross Longs:89,997146,70413,549
– Gross Shorts:92,775146,52410,951
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.986.122.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.2-5.07.7

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,518 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,426 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.540.29.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.137.811.7
– Net Position:-1,9087,448-5,540
– Gross Longs:95,452126,00731,104
– Gross Shorts:97,360118,55936,644
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.670.381.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.49.718.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing Soft Commodities
20 Aug

Energy Speculators push Heating Oil bets higher for 6th week to 42-week high

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data (Week 33) is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes: Week 33 – Heating Oil bets rise for 6th week

COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Natural Gas (4,508 contracts) with WTI Crude Oil (4,289 contracts), Gasoline (2,163 contracts) and Heating Oil (462 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Brent Crude Oil (-1,801 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-231 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Heating Oil speculator contracts edged higher this week and rose for a sixth straight week. Speculator positions are now in bullish territory for the twelfth week after turning from bearish to bullish on May 31st. These increases have pushed the Heating Oil speculator standing to just about +25,000 contracts and to the highest level since October 26th of 2021, a span of forty-two weeks.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-16-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,557,3490214,9401-239,29110024,35148
Gold453,9600141,16419-153,7098412,5454
Silver144,314113,50810-12,451908,94312
Copper183,50017-28,2202228,93279-71221
Palladium7,9517-1,599141,536836348
Platinum57,254172,94012-6,361903,42110
Natural Gas983,4605-120,9114282,8625738,04970
Brent176,90221-36,0125134,290501,72233
Heating Oil296,9873424,92679-40,0222915,09651
Soybeans595,095583,18339-51,65068-31,53318
Corn1,316,4621220,12958-166,31848-53,81112
Coffee190,302033,47168-35,318371,84716
Sugar737,535749,97047-61,8375611,86723
Wheat313,23711-1,908177,44870-5,54082

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Heating Oil (79.1 percent) leads the energy currently and is up a bit from last week’s score of 78.4 percent. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (58.2 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (50.8 percent) come in as the next highest energy markets in strength scores. On the downside, the WTI Crude Oil (1.1 percent) and Gasoline (19.7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels and are both in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).

 


Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (1.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (50.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (53.8 percent)
Natural Gas (42.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (40.9 percent)
Gasoline (19.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (17.5 percent)
Heating Oil (79.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (78.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (58.2 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (59.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (27.1 percent) is getting the most love from speculators lately and leads the past six weeks trends for energy. Gasoline (19.7 percent), Brent Crude Oil (4.2 percent) and Natural Gas (2.9 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-20.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores is WTI Crude Oil (-17.3 percent).

 


Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-17.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-23.5 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (4.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (14.2 percent)
Natural Gas (2.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (1.2 percent)
Gasoline (19.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (13.4 percent)
Heating Oil (27.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (24.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-20.7 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-20.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 214,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 210,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.341.05.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.556.43.5
– Net Position:214,940-239,29124,351
– Gross Longs:346,865638,97178,715
– Gross Shorts:131,925878,26254,364
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.199.748.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.317.50.9

 

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -36,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,801 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.750.84.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.031.43.1
– Net Position:-36,01234,2901,722
– Gross Longs:33,01789,8287,241
– Gross Shorts:69,02955,5385,519
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.850.332.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.2-5.07.0

 

Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -120,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -125,419 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.342.26.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.633.83.0
– Net Position:-120,91182,86238,049
– Gross Longs:170,133415,17167,826
– Gross Shorts:291,044332,30929,777
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.357.070.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.9-2.9-1.2

 

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 47,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,506 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.348.17.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.068.36.0
– Net Position:47,669-52,6304,961
– Gross Longs:81,394124,91920,499
– Gross Shorts:33,725177,54915,538
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.780.945.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.7-19.11.9

 

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 24,926 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.552.113.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.165.68.7
– Net Position:24,926-40,02215,096
– Gross Longs:46,048154,77241,070
– Gross Shorts:21,122194,79425,974
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.128.650.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.1-18.4-4.1

 

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.075.00.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.356.20.1
– Net Position:-12,88712,595292
– Gross Longs:15,33050,098339
– Gross Shorts:28,21737,50347
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.3 to 17.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.241.721.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.720.61.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Financial News investing
20 Aug

Dow Jones Stock Mini Speculator bets improve for 3rd week to 27-week high

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data for Week 33 is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes: COT Week 33 – Dow Jones Stock gains

COT stock market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other six markets had lower contracts.

Recording the only positive gains for stock markets this week was the Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini with a total gain of 5,745 contracts.

The stock markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500 Mini (-43,723 contracts) with the Nasdaq Mini (-14,229 contracts), the MSCI EAFE Mini (-13,310 contracts), the VIX (-3,974 contracts), the Russell 2000 Mini (-3,598 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 USD (-303 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

 

The Dow Jones Stock Index Mini, one of the most widely-watched stock market indices and made up of 30 large publicly-traded companies, rose this week for a third straight week. Speculator bets for the Dow have also now gained in seven out of the past eight weeks for a total gain of +18,508 contracts in that period. Overall, the speculator bets have been in bearish territory since January 4th but the recent improvement has brought the current spec position (-6,965 contracts) to the least bearish level since February 15th, a span of 27 weeks. The Dow Jones Stock Mini futures hit a four-month high this week above 34,000 but ended the week with a small loss.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-16-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
S&P500-Mini2,346,22410-287,9843354,217100-66,23312
Nikkei 22514,75111-4,563563,271461,29245
Nasdaq-Mini267,796536,8467915,52236-22,3682
DowJones-Mini81,03743-6,965299,36672-2,40126
VIX366,82346-102,16958105,26940-3,10076
Nikkei 225 Yen58,199415,9685219,49678-25,46422

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (78.9 percent) leads the stocks currently and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). On the downside, the EAFE-Mini (0.0 percent), the Russell2000-Mini (2.0 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (2.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are all in bearish extreme levels for speculators (below 20 percent).

 


Strength Statistics:
VIX (58.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (60.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (2.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (10.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (29.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (21.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (78.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (86.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (2.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (4.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (55.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (57.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (0.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (14.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (21.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for stocks currently. The Dow Jones trend has gained from a 16.5 percent trend score last week. The Russell2000-Mini (1.2 percent) is the only other positive mover in the latest trends data and is up from a -4.6 percent score last week. The VIX (-28.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the S&P500-Mini (-19.3 percent) followed by the Nasdaq-Mini (-13.4 percent) and the Nikkei USD (-13.4 percent).

 


Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-28.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-24.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-19.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-19.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (21.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (16.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-13.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-1.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (1.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-4.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (-13.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-12.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-3.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-22.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -102,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.259.56.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.130.87.5
– Net Position:-102,169105,269-3,100
– Gross Longs:48,445218,26324,376
– Gross Shorts:150,614112,99427,476
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.140.476.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.325.818.4

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -287,984 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -43,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -244,261 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.777.89.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.062.712.5
– Net Position:-287,984354,217-66,233
– Gross Longs:227,3701,826,100227,544
– Gross Shorts:515,3541,471,883293,777
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.8100.012.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.318.4-5.9

 

Dow Jones Stock Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Stock Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,965 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,745 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.654.016.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.242.519.4
– Net Position:-6,9659,366-2,401
– Gross Longs:23,21543,79513,286
– Gross Shorts:30,18034,42915,687
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.071.625.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.5-24.411.1

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 6,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.357.611.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.751.819.6
– Net Position:6,84615,522-22,368
– Gross Longs:78,401154,31530,163
– Gross Shorts:71,555138,79352,531
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.936.12.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.425.5-35.8

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -116,465 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,598 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -112,867 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.188.54.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.166.04.6
– Net Position:-116,465118,367-1,902
– Gross Longs:32,034466,87422,592
– Gross Shorts:148,499348,50724,494
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.097.121.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.2-2.79.3

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,260 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.453.930.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.431.721.7
– Net Position:-4,5633,2711,292
– Gross Longs:2,2787,9484,489
– Gross Shorts:6,8414,6773,197
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.846.044.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.40.334.6

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -36,158 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,848 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.992.42.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.383.71.6
– Net Position:-36,15833,8652,293
– Gross Longs:19,133357,5418,342
– Gross Shorts:55,291323,6766,049
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.038.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.39.6-52.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing Stock Market News
19 Aug

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 19.08.2022 (EURUSD, NZDUSD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has fixed below the support level. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen at 1.0140 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.9805. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.0325. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.0415.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is about to test the bullish channel’s broken border. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen at 0.6275 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6095. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.63750. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6465. To confirm a further downtrend, the price must break the bullish channel’s upside and fix below 0.6160.

NZDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is rebounding from the support level. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.9505 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.9740. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.9405. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.9305.

USDCHF

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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