InvestMacro

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.12.05

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0525
Prev Close: 1.0539
% chg. over the last day: +0.13 %

On Friday, investors were looking for signs of weakness in the US labor market, especially wages, as a precursor to a faster slowdown in inflation, which would allow the Fed to slow down and eventually halt its current rate hike cycle. But the NFP data surprised again, and the October data was revised upward, highlighting that the US labor market continues to show signs of high resilience despite tightening financial conditions. This, in turn, gives the Fed room for another major hike, although there is less than a 20% chance of such a scenario.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0543, 1.491, 1.0446, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284, 1.0193
Resistance levels: 1.0610

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but with signs of stopping in the form of divergence. Buy trades are best considered after a slight correction to the support levels of 1.0543 or 1.0491, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0610, but it is better with confirmation in the form of reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0332 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.12.05:

– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 03:45 (GMT+3);
– Spanish Services PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
– Italian Services PMI (m/m) at 10:45 (GMT+3);
–– French Services PMI (m/m) at 10:50 (GMT+3);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2242
Prev Close: 1.2291
% chg. over the last day: +0.40 %

Financial markets gave British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak a pretty easy start. The Bank of England will meet for the last time this year on December 15. Swati Dhingra of the bank’s monetary policy committee said late last week that the Bank of England’s benchmark interest rate must peak no higher than 4.5% if the central bank wants to avoid a deepening and prolonged recession. For now, the Bank of England is holding the rate at 3%, compared with the RBNZ’s 4.25%, the US Fed’s 4.00%, and the Bank of Canada’s 3.75%.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2224, 1.2016, 1.1964, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
Resistance levels: 1.2381, 1.2431

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the moving levels. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, and there are signs of divergence, which indicates the weakness of the buyers. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the support level of 1.2224, but with confirmation. Sell trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from resistance levels of 1.2381, but also better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakdown.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.1965 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.12.05:

– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 135.28
Prev Close: 134.31
% chg. over the last day: -0.72 %

As market participants focused on strong wage growth and solid US employment data, the USD/JPY pair jumped on Friday after the NFP release. However, another 50 basis point hike is expected at the December FOMC meeting. Given that the Bank of Japan will maintain an ultra-soft policy at least until spring 2023, analysts expect a new wave of USD/JPY growth amid a widening of the difference between the interest rates of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 135.20, 133.53
Resistance levels: 137.65, 139.09, 140.75, 143.17, 145.16

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but on the higher time frames, the divergence is formed, which indicates the weakness of the sellers. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought on the intraday time frames from the support level of 134.26, but only with confirmation, since the level has already been tested. Sell deals could be sought from the resistance level of 135.11 or 137.65, provided there is a reversal.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 139.08, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.12.05:

– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3430
Prev Close: 1.3471
% chg. over the last day: +0.31 %

The Bank of Canada has a tough decision to make at its upcoming policy meeting on December 7. Governor Tiff Macklem argues that further rate hikes are needed to bring inflation under control, but the central bank is facing criticism as there are signs of a slowing economy. Therefore, it is very likely that the Bank of Canada will raise the rate by 0.25%. But there could be surprises, as Tiff Macklem wants to keep up with the US Fed, and the US central bank is planning a 0.5% rate hike. Robust employment data could justify a potential 50 basis point hike by the Bank of Canada.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3446, 1.3479, 1.3522, 1.3658, 1.3682, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish. The price failed to break down through the priority change level. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but sellers’ pressure is weak. Buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3386, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3446 but with confirmation in the form of reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3386, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 Dec

EUR Decided to Sky-Rocket

By RoboForex Analytical Department

On Monday, the market major has reached 1.0580. It must be realized, that this is not because the euro is strong but because the dollar is weak. Investors are undermining the USD, treading on statistics and upcoming decisions of the US Federal Reserve System.

The labour market in the US remains vigorous. In November, the unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, and the NFP grew by 263 thousand instead of 200 thousand forecast. Average hourly wage increased by 5.1% y/y upon growing by 4.6% in October.

All this makes the employment picture quite stable and gives us an idea that the US business withstands the growing expenses on crediting quite efficiently. The wage fund has expanded, which hinders the market idea about the interest rate growing by 50 base points in December.

With all this background, the USD is really unstable, which is obvious in the quotes.

On H4, the currency pair has formed a consolidation range around 1.0466. Today the market is trying to break it upwards. The structure of growth is expected to extend to 1.0634, and after it is reached, a link of correction to 1.0464 is not excluded, followed by growth to 1.0703. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD: its line is directed strictly upwards, which suggests further growth.

On H1, the pair has completed an impulse of growth to 1.0531. Today the market has formed a consolidation range around it, and with an escape upwards, it extends the structure of growth to 1.0634. Technically, the scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is above 80 and shows no evidence of decline as yet.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 Dec

China eases Covid restrictions. The dollar index fell to a 5-month low amid expectations of a rate hike slowdown

By JustMarkets

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that it might be time to slow rate hikes, raising hopes that the Central Bank is near the end of its tightening cycle. But Friday’s jobs report that hiring remained high last month while average hourly earnings rose. The US non-farm payrolls report (NFP) beat market expectations with 263,000 new jobs created compared to the expected 200,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%, while average hourly earnings rose to 5.1% year-over-year against expectations of 4.6% and a revised higher October rate of 4.9%. This suggests that the labor market remains strong, giving the Fed room for another major hike, although there is less than a 20% chance of such a scenario.

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.10% (+0.45% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.12% (+1.66% for the week). Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 0.18% (+2.82% for the week). Despite the slight decline on Friday, all three indices closed the week on a profit.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rallied last week. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.27% (+0.40% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.17% (+0.96% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) was down 0.30% (+0.06% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.03% (+0.93% for the week).

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to appear twice this week ahead of this year’s key ECB policy meeting on December 15. Markets are leaning toward a 50 basis point rate hike at the ECB’s upcoming meeting after data last week showed that Eurozone inflation fell much more than expected in November. European Central Bank officials in Germany and France said over the weekend that the ECB would return inflation to 2% by the end of 2024 or 2025. National governments have used hundreds of billions of euros to protect companies and households from rising energy prices, which bankers said could undermine their efforts to rein in inflation. Nagel and Villeroy called for a return to a more balanced budget in the near future.

Representatives of OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its allies, including Russia, met Sunday to discuss production targets after the G7 countries agreed to cap Russian oil prices. On Friday, the G7 nations and Australia agreed to cap the price of Russian offshore crude at $60 a barrel to deprive President Vladimir Putin of revenue to fund the invasion of Ukraine. Many OPEC analysts and ministers say the cap is ineffective because Moscow sells most of its oil to countries such as China and India. So far, OPEC+ countries have agreed to stick to their oil production targets at a meeting on Sunday. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Sunday that Russia would rather cut production than deliver oil under a price cap.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) declined 1.57% over the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 9.85% last week, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up 0.58%. Most Asian markets are trading sideways on Monday amid some uncertainty over US monetary policy after strong wage data, while Chinese stocks are rising as the government loosened restrictions imposed on COVID. Hong Kong stocks have also significantly outperformed their Chinese counterparts in the last month as the city rolled back its COVID policies early.

In the commodities market, futures on silver (+8.98%), copper (+6.27), WTI oil (+5.32%), palladium (+4.56%), platinum (+3.8%), cotton (+3.68%), and gold (+3.27%) showed the biggest gains over the week. Futures on natural gas (-15.12%), lumber (-6.23%), wheat (-4.64%), corn (-3.69%), and orange juice (-3.18%) showed the biggest drops.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,071.70 −4.87 (−0.12%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,429.88 +34.87 (+0.10%)

DAX (DE40) 14,529.39 +39.09 (+0.27%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,556.23 −2.266 (−0.030%)

USD Index 104.51 −0.22 (−0.21%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 03:45 (GMT+3);
– China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
– Spanish Services PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
– Italian Services PMI (m/m) at 10:45 (GMT+3);
– French Services PMI (m/m) at 10:50 (GMT+3);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 Dec

Jiang Zemin propelled China’s economic rise in the world, leaving his successors to deal with the massive inequality that followed

By Edward Cunningham, Harvard Kennedy School

By the summer of 1989, a series of problems were threatening China’s stability. Soaring inflation was undermining the economy at home while the violent suppression of Tiananmen Square demonstrations had left it largely a pariah state abroad. Yet within a few years the nation rebounded – beginning two decades of high economic growth, membership in the largest trading club in the world and international acceptance on the global stage.

That transition came thanks in no small part to an underestimated, Soviet-trained electrical engineer – former Chinese President Jiang Zemin, who died on Nov. 30, 2022, at the age of 96.

I first traveled to and studied in China in 1992. At that time, the still powerful former leader Deng Xiaoping was publicly criticizing Jiang’s more conservative approach to the economy in a series of visits and talks he gave during what became known as Deng’s “Southern Tour.” Eventually Jiang fell in line and supported Deng’s liberalization measures and the idea of economic transformation. Yet while Jiang’s subsequent policies laid a strong foundation for China’s growth, they also likely sowed the seeds of excess that set the stage for current President Xi Jinping’s rise.

The grand experiment

Jiang was picked to lead the country as general secretary in June 1989, after the ouster of former leader Zhao Ziyang for Zhao’s conciliatory approach towards the Tiananmen Square protesters.

Within three years Jiang embarked on a grand experiment together with Deng and then-Vice Premier Zhu Rongji, which required Jiang to do what others had been unable or unwilling to do: force the restructuring of inefficient state-owned enterprises in a wide range of sectors. This resulted in the laying off of millions of workers who had expected such jobs to be lifelong “iron rice bowls.”

From 1998 to 2002, approximately 34 million people were fired as China privatized hundreds of state-owned enterprises and shuttered thousands more.

This concerted effort proved an important and necessary step toward preparing Chinese companies for more direct market competition and integration with the world economy by the turn of the century.

Ascending on the world stage

Jiang’s real influence began upon Deng’s death in February 1997.

In July of that year, he presided over the handover of Hong Kong to the mainland. He then proved an able leader during the macroeconomic storm of the Asian financial crisis that began that same month. China quickly recovered and by 2001 had both acceded to the World Trade Organization and won the bid to host the 2008 Summer Olympic Games.

By 2002 China’s economy had grown to represent over 4% of the global economy. Jiang sought to reinforce such economic dynamism through more formal means, and revised the constitution that same year to formally allow corporate elite and private business entrepreneurs into the Chinese Communist Party.

Growing inequality

This economic liberalization was paired with housing privatization policies. Combined, they spurred the creation of a burgeoning middle class and large-scale private wealth generation.

What was missing, though, was adequate regulation to provide a check on the often-wild results of unbridled growth. Economic inequalities grew dramatically in the 1990s and on through 2005, when Jiang formally relinquished his final title as the head of the military.

This created large social fissures, as rampant corruption began to permeate central and local governments, crime rates rose, and even the military itself got into business schemes. Local governments resorted to rafts of arbitrary and extra-budgetary fees levied on citizens to pay for critical public goods and services, as well as infrastructure, which had eroded over time.

Return of the state

Jiang’s successors needed to respond to the problems his policies created. They did so by elevating the role of the state in social and economic life, promoting what they described as a more “balanced development” model.

Hu Jintao, who succeeded Jiang, focused resources and policy priorities on transferring more resources to the poorer regions of China, shoring up a weak medical and social insurance system and promulgating more egalitarian measures as part of a “putting people first” program. In just five years, the percentage of China’s population covered by health insurance more than doubled, from 43% in 2006 to 95% in 2011.

Hu also moderated Jiang’s growth at any cost focus, pushing through policies that provided assistance to groups who had not benefited as much from China’s economic reforms, such as migrants, the rural poor and laid-off urban workers.

Xi has provided a more pointed response to what he likely views as the costs of Jiang’s governance. While continuing the shift toward greater centralization, he has deepened and widened the state’s role in not only the economy but other spheres of Chinese life, such as society and the military.

A smooth transition?

But Jiang’s legacy is more than just soaring economic growth and staggering inequality. It is also important to note that the end of his leadership marked China’s first orderly transition of political power since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.

That precedent was, and continues to be, important. While he initially maintained some influence for several years after formally stepping down as general secretary, Jiang’s most singular legacy may be showing the world – and the Chinese people – that smooth transitions of power were indeed possible. Whether they still are possible remains an open question.

About the Author:

Edward Cunningham, Director of Ash Center China Programs, Harvard Kennedy School

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

03 Dec

Currency Speculators up their Mexican Peso bets higher for 8th time in 9 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 29th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican peso (2,767 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (827 contracts) and the Swiss franc (229 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Canadian dollar (-4,444 contracts) and the Japanese yen (-2,544 contracts) with the Australian dollar (-1,844 contracts), the Brazilian real (-1,099 contracts), the Euro (-865 contracts), the New Zealand dollar (-770 contracts), the British pound sterling (-642 contracts) and Bitcoin (-382 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the rising Mexican peso positioning. Large speculators boosted their bullish bets for the Mexican peso this week for the eighth time out of the past nine weeks. Peso bets have now improved by a total of +107,408 contracts over that nine-week period going from a standing of -41,322 contracts on September 27th to +66,086 contracts through Tuesday.

The peso positioning has been helped out by the rising interest rates in Mexico that have reached 10 percent with expectations of another 50 basis point increase in December. Peso prices have also been on the rise higher against the US Dollar recently and are up by over 6 percent (vs USD) since late-September. The peso is also one of the rare currencies to be up overall against the US Dollar in 2022.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-29-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	46,836	60	24,892	66	-28,492	31	3,600	56
EUR	695,776	77	122,247	73	-154,585	32	32,338	31
GBP	225,480	52	-36,584	38	49,232	68	-12,648	33
JPY	228,328	67	-67,394	27	82,669	76	-15,275	22
CHF	41,360	25	-14,247	17	19,970	78	-5,723	38
CAD	136,654	21	-16,116	23	13,951	80	2,165	34
AUD	159,378	52	-44,630	43	50,906	57	-6,276	37
NZD	46,180	39	-5,054	48	4,641	52	413	56
MXN	307,733	99	66,086	56	-72,759	42	6,673	71
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	32,057	16	7,637	56	-9,659	44	2,022	85
Bitcoin	16,832	90	324	83	-780	0	456	23

Bitcoin, EuroFX lead Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Bitcoin (82.6 percent) and the EuroFX (72.5 percent) lead the currency markets at the top of their respective ranges and are both in bullish extreme positions. The US Dollar Index (66.4 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores but the Dollar has been losing steam over the past weeks and months.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (17.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (66.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (65.1 percent)
EuroFX (72.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (37.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (38.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (27.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (28.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (17.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (22.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (27.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (43.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (45.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (47.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (49.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (55.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (54.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (56.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (57.2 percent)
Bitcoin (82.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (89.3 percent)

Strength Trends led by Mexican Peso

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (37.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (31.5 percent), the EuroFX (22.7 percent) and the Japanese Yen (16.6 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-19.3 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-18.8 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was the US Dollar Index (-13.0 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-13.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-14.5 percent)
EuroFX (22.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (26.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (12.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (2.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (16.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (7.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-18.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-22.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (5.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (16.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-10.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (31.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (34.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (37.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (41.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-19.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-17.8 percent)
Bitcoin (5.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-2.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 24,892 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,065 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.6	4.4	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	65.3	5.5
– Net Position:	24,892	-28,492	3,600
– Gross Longs:	37,279	2,079	6,199
– Gross Shorts:	12,387	30,571	2,599
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	30.5	55.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	13.5	-7.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 122,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,112 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	51.3	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	73.5	7.1
– Net Position:	122,247	-154,585	32,338
– Gross Longs:	241,122	356,905	81,867
– Gross Shorts:	118,875	511,490	49,529
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.5	32.2	30.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.7	-23.8	15.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -36,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,942 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	76.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	54.5	15.1
– Net Position:	-36,584	49,232	-12,648
– Gross Longs:	26,000	172,199	21,363
– Gross Shorts:	62,584	122,967	34,011
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.6	67.5	33.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.6	-18.4	24.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -67,394 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,544 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,850 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	76.2	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.8	40.0	16.5
– Net Position:	-67,394	82,669	-15,275
– Gross Longs:	28,125	173,959	22,403
– Gross Shorts:	95,519	91,290	37,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.4	76.0	22.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.6	-13.7	2.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -14,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,476 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.6	69.7	25.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	21.4	39.7
– Net Position:	-14,247	19,970	-5,723
– Gross Longs:	1,488	28,814	10,696
– Gross Shorts:	15,735	8,844	16,419
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	77.9	38.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.8	1.4	21.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,116 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,672 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	48.5	24.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	38.3	22.8
– Net Position:	-16,116	13,951	2,165
– Gross Longs:	35,123	66,304	33,375
– Gross Shorts:	51,239	52,353	31,210
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.6	80.4	34.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-9.3	13.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -44,630 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	65.6	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.0	33.6	13.8
– Net Position:	-44,630	50,906	-6,276
– Gross Longs:	35,045	104,506	15,698
– Gross Shorts:	79,675	53,600	21,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.5	56.9	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	1.4	17.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,054 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -770 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,284 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.8	50.2	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.8	40.1	7.1
– Net Position:	-5,054	4,641	413
– Gross Longs:	18,855	23,162	3,691
– Gross Shorts:	23,909	18,521	3,278
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.8	51.7	56.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.5	-37.6	49.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 66,086 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,767 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.9	32.0	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	55.6	0.8
– Net Position:	66,086	-72,759	6,673
– Gross Longs:	199,744	98,322	9,226
– Gross Shorts:	133,658	171,081	2,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.5	42.5	71.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.7	-37.1	2.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 7,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.5	36.0	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	66.1	5.1
– Net Position:	7,637	-9,659	2,022
– Gross Longs:	16,500	11,541	3,666
– Gross Shorts:	8,863	21,200	1,644
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	43.6	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.3	19.2	-0.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -382 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 706 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.9	0.8	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	80.0	5.4	4.6
– Net Position:	324	-780	456
– Gross Longs:	13,783	127	1,236
– Gross Shorts:	13,459	907	780
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.6	26.6	23.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-5.6	-4.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

03 Dec

COT Speculator Extremes: Bloomberg Commodity Index, Wheat lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 29th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Top Most Bullish and Top Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is currently at a 93.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The overall net speculator position totaled -3,559 net contracts this week. This market usually has a bearish speculator position and currently it is at the lower end of its range that has averaged a weekly position of -10,636 contracts in 2022.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Heating Oil speculator level is now at a 87.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 30,733 net contracts this week after rising by 3,561 contracts for the week.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 84.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 102,339 net contracts this week and edged up by 1,269 contracts through Tuesday.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 82.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was a total of 324 net contracts this week after falling by -382 speculator contracts this week.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level sits at a 80.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 9,755 net contracts this week and saw an increase of 6,709 contracts through Tuesday.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -33,305 net contracts this week as the position fell by -5,787 contracts this week.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 1.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was a total of -14,636 net contracts this week. Coffee bets rose by 1,550 contracts this week but had fallen for the previous eight straight weeks.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 5.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -529,349 net contracts this week and saw a dip by -5,695 contracts for the week.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s next most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 7.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 239,739 net contracts this week after a decline of -12,736 contracts through Tuesday’s data cutoff.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

03 Dec

Platinum Speculators raise their bullish bets to 38-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum

The COT precious metals speculator bets were a little lower this week as two out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Platinum (1,769 contracts) with Silver (717 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-6,110 contracts) with Copper (-1,120 contracts) and Palladium (-523 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued bullishness of Platinum positions. The large speculator standing in Platinum futures rose this week by +1,769 contracts. Speculator bets have now gained in eight out of the past nine weeks with a total rise of +24,098 contracts over that period. This has pushed the overall speculator’s bullish level for Platinum to its highest level in the past thirty-eight weeks, dating back to March 8th when the net position totaled +25,833 contracts.

Platinum futures prices have also been on the rise since hitting a September low near the $800.00 level. Platinum futures closed out this week right around the $1,026.60 level for an approximate gain by 28 percent since the September 1st low.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-29-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,412,121	1	239,739	8	-262,654	93	22,915	37
Gold	433,661	1	110,003	19	-119,233	82	9,230	3
Silver	121,258	0	17,483	33	-28,997	68	11,514	26
Copper	146,760	0	1,984	38	-3,362	64	1,378	33
Palladium	7,537	8	-1,631	14	1,687	84	-56	38
Platinum	66,468	33	24,259	42	-28,762	60	4,503	28
Natural Gas	985,010	7	-163,429	30	136,191	74	27,238	45
Brent	155,500	15	-32,087	57	29,424	42	2,663	45
Heating Oil	266,829	23	30,733	88	-48,255	20	17,522	59
Soybeans	634,754	13	87,208	40	-61,551	68	-25,657	28
Corn	1,226,410	0	270,242	65	-231,169	39	-39,073	21
Coffee	196,365	9	-14,636	2	13,695	99	941	12
Sugar	876,309	34	179,035	56	-222,607	39	43,572	62
Wheat	310,667	10	-33,305	0	37,024	100	-3,719	91

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Copper

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Platinum (41.7 percent) and Copper (37.9 percent) lead the metals category at the moment. Silver (33.4 percent) comes in as the next highest metals market in strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (14.2 percent) and Gold (19.2 percent) are at the lowest strength levels currently and are both in extreme bearish levels.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (19.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (21.2 percent)
Silver (33.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (32.6 percent)
Copper (37.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (38.8 percent)
Platinum (41.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (39.3 percent)
Palladium (14.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (17.3 percent)

Platinum tops Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Platinum (21.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Silver (17.9 percent), Copper (17.7 percent) and Gold (11.0 percent) are also positive movers in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-2.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (11.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (7.2 percent)
Silver (17.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (10.3 percent)
Copper (17.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (15.1 percent)
Platinum (21.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (22.3 percent)
Palladium (-2.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-2.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 110,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,110 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,113 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.2	30.9	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	58.4	5.7
– Net Position:	110,003	-119,233	9,230
– Gross Longs:	209,161	134,184	33,946
– Gross Shorts:	99,158	253,417	24,716
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.2	82.3	3.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.0	-9.0	-9.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 17,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 717 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,766 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.9	38.2	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	62.1	8.8
– Net Position:	17,483	-28,997	11,514
– Gross Longs:	48,441	46,270	22,150
– Gross Shorts:	30,958	75,267	10,636
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	67.8	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-18.8	17.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,984 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,104 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.0	43.1	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.7	45.4	8.3
– Net Position:	1,984	-3,362	1,378
– Gross Longs:	51,433	63,196	13,549
– Gross Shorts:	49,449	66,558	12,171
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.9	64.4	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.7	-17.9	4.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,259 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.1	29.8	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	73.1	4.4
– Net Position:	24,259	-28,762	4,503
– Gross Longs:	35,268	19,824	7,400
– Gross Shorts:	11,009	48,586	2,897
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.7	59.8	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.2	-21.6	18.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,631 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -523 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,108 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.4	52.4	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.0	30.0	14.8
– Net Position:	-1,631	1,687	-56
– Gross Longs:	2,289	3,951	1,061
– Gross Shorts:	3,920	2,264	1,117
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.2	83.7	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	1.4	10.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

03 Dec

COT Bonds Speculators trim their Eurodollar bearish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Eurodollar & 2-Year Bond

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (115,943 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (38,817 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (25,883 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (24,484 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets leading the weekly declines in speculator bets this week was the Fed Funds (-44,174 contracts) with the Long US Bond (-13,433 contracts), the Ultra US Bond (-12,393 contracts), and the 5-Year Bond (-5,695 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT bonds data this week is the continued decrease in speculator bearish positions for the Eurodollar market. The large speculator position in Eurodollar futures fell this week for the third straight week and for the eighth time out of the past eleven weeks. This recent trimming of the bearish position has shaved off a total of 1,167,970 contracts – going from a total of -2,877,322 contracts on September 13th to this week’s total of -1,709,352 contracts.

Eurodollar contracts are a bet on short-term interest rates where more bullish bets equal a bet on lower interest rates while more bearish bets means speculators are looking for higher interest rates. The Eurodollar speculator contracts hit a bearish peak on August 9th at a total of -2,885,979 contracts and since then speculators have reduced their bearish bets in eleven out of those sixteen weeks.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-29-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	7,234,801	0	-1,709,352	22	1,952,152	76	-242,800	51
FedFunds	1,641,595	58	-32,618	36	42,973	65	-10,355	33
2-Year	2,099,117	15	-528,178	9	519,516	89	8,662	56
Long T-Bond	1,197,681	42	-103,917	51	66,851	34	37,066	82
10-Year	3,897,383	58	-296,772	27	359,620	65	-62,848	65
5-Year	4,303,419	69	-529,349	5	618,522	89	-89,173	57

US Treasury Bond tops Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (50.8 percent) leads the bonds category and is the only market above its three-year midpoint (above 50 percent).

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (5.5 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.2 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (8.6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (35.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (41.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (8.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (2.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (5.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (27.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (23.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (50.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (55.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (26.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (31.4 percent)
Eurodollar (21.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (19.5 percent)

Strength Trends led by Eurodollar & 10-Year Treasury Bond

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (6.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The 10-Year Bond (2.5 percent) is the only other positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-28.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-14.2 percent) and the Fed Funds (-7.7 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-7.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (1.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (-28.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-31.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (-6.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-6.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (2.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (2.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-0.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-7.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-5.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-2.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-14.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-10.9 percent)
Eurodollar (6.8 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (5.9 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,709,352 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 115,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,825,295 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	68.6	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	41.6	8.3
– Net Position:	-1,709,352	1,952,152	-242,800
– Gross Longs:	520,547	4,964,242	360,091
– Gross Shorts:	2,229,899	3,012,090	602,891
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	76.0	51.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	-6.3	-3.1

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -44,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,556 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	75.0	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	72.3	2.5
– Net Position:	-32,618	42,973	-10,355
– Gross Longs:	184,273	1,230,567	30,497
– Gross Shorts:	216,891	1,187,594	40,852
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.6	65.1	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	7.7	-4.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -528,178 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 38,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -566,995 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	81.0	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	56.3	8.5
– Net Position:	-528,178	519,516	8,662
– Gross Longs:	156,249	1,700,306	186,732
– Gross Shorts:	684,427	1,180,790	178,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.6	89.2	55.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.6	17.4	34.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -529,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -523,654 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	82.4	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	68.0	9.3
– Net Position:	-529,349	618,522	-89,173
– Gross Longs:	316,986	3,544,108	309,862
– Gross Shorts:	846,335	2,925,586	399,035
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.5	88.7	56.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	3.9	2.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -296,772 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 24,484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -321,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	75.4	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	66.2	10.6
– Net Position:	-296,772	359,620	-62,848
– Gross Longs:	469,072	2,939,872	351,940
– Gross Shorts:	765,844	2,580,252	414,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.3	64.6	65.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-1.4	-1.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -79,249 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 25,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	77.0	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	65.3	17.6
– Net Position:	-79,249	159,553	-80,304
– Gross Longs:	142,588	1,050,386	159,395
– Gross Shorts:	221,837	890,833	239,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.2	81.2	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	2.1	-3.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -103,917 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,433 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,484 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.0	78.8	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	73.2	12.1
– Net Position:	-103,917	66,851	37,066
– Gross Longs:	47,371	943,291	182,448
– Gross Shorts:	151,288	876,440	145,382
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.8	34.4	82.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.7	4.9	3.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -389,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -377,011 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.1	82.7	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	60.3	8.0
– Net Position:	-389,404	331,412	57,992
– Gross Longs:	60,228	1,222,893	175,631
– Gross Shorts:	449,632	891,481	117,639
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.3	75.4	79.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	11.5	10.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

03 Dec

Soft Commodity Speculators drop Cotton bets for 12th time in 13 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other six markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Corn (21,477 contracts) with Soybeans (16,969 contracts), Soybean Oil (4,333 contracts), Coffee (1,550 contracts) and Soybean Meal (1,269 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Sugar (-8,927 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-8,233 contracts), Wheat (-5,787 contracts), Cocoa (-5,586 contracts), Live Cattle (-1,481 contracts) and Cotton (-1,143 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued decline in Cotton‘s speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Cotton have declined for three straight weeks and in twelve out of the past thirteen weeks. Overall, Cotton bets have dropped by a total of -35,187 contracts in the past thirteen weeks going from a standing of +51,767 total net contracts on August 30th to just +16,580 total net contracts this week.

Cotton futures prices have been in sharp retreat since late-August as well. The front-month futures price settled on Friday at just over $83.00 which is down almost 30 percent from August 30th. Cotton prices are also down by approximately 47 percent from the 2022 high-point reached in early May at over $155.95.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-29-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,412,121	1	239,739	8	-262,654	93	22,915	37
Gold	433,661	1	110,003	19	-119,233	82	9,230	3
Silver	121,258	0	17,483	33	-28,997	68	11,514	26
Copper	146,760	0	1,984	38	-3,362	64	1,378	33
Palladium	7,537	8	-1,631	14	1,687	84	-56	38
Platinum	66,468	33	24,259	42	-28,762	60	4,503	28
Natural Gas	985,010	7	-163,429	30	136,191	74	27,238	45
Brent	155,500	15	-32,087	57	29,424	42	2,663	45
Heating Oil	266,829	23	30,733	88	-48,255	20	17,522	59
Soybeans	634,754	13	87,208	40	-61,551	68	-25,657	28
Corn	1,226,410	0	270,242	65	-231,169	39	-39,073	21
Coffee	196,365	9	-14,636	2	13,695	99	941	12
Sugar	876,309	34	179,035	56	-222,607	39	43,572	62
Wheat	310,667	10	-33,305	0	37,024	100	-3,719	91

Soybean Meal tops Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (84.5 percent) and Soybean Oil (74.3 percent) lead the soft commodity markets with Soybean Meal residing in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Corn (64.6 percent) and Sugar (55.6 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0.0 percent), Coffee (1.8 percent) and Cotton (19.9 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are all in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (64.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (61.8 percent)
Sugar (55.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (58.6 percent)
Coffee (1.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybeans (40.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (34.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (74.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (71.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (84.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (83.7 percent)
Live Cattle (47.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (49.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (45.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (54.4 percent)
Cotton (19.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.8 percent)
Cocoa (26.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (32.0 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.1 percent)

Strength Trends led Soybean Oil & Sugar

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (18.9 percent) and Sugar (18.1 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Live Cattle (15.5 percent), Soybeans (10.0 percent) and Lean Hogs (9.2 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-38.9 percent), Wheat (-31.2 percent) and Cotton (-12.2 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-5.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-9.8 percent)
Sugar (18.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (29.8 percent)
Coffee (-38.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-65.2 percent)
Soybeans (10.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (4.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (28.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (1.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.5 percent)
Live Cattle (15.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (19.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (26.8 percent)
Cotton (-12.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-13.9 percent)
Cocoa (-1.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.6 percent)
Wheat (-31.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-26.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 270,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 21,477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 248,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	45.1	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.3	63.9	13.2
– Net Position:	270,242	-231,169	-39,073
– Gross Longs:	360,350	552,816	122,723
– Gross Shorts:	90,108	783,985	161,796
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.6	39.0	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.4	2.6	13.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 179,035 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187,962 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	45.2	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	70.6	5.8
– Net Position:	179,035	-222,607	43,572
– Gross Longs:	282,793	396,433	94,194
– Gross Shorts:	103,758	619,040	50,622
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	39.3	61.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-16.6	6.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	56.0	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	49.1	4.1
– Net Position:	-14,636	13,695	941
– Gross Longs:	35,834	110,025	9,075
– Gross Shorts:	50,470	96,330	8,134
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.8	98.8	12.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.9	38.8	-20.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 87,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 16,969 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	50.8	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	60.5	11.9
– Net Position:	87,208	-61,551	-25,657
– Gross Longs:	151,317	322,231	49,683
– Gross Shorts:	64,109	383,782	75,340
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	67.7	27.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-9.6	-2.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 103,854 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	41.2	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.4	67.5	4.6
– Net Position:	103,854	-116,889	13,035
– Gross Longs:	136,812	183,315	33,560
– Gross Shorts:	32,958	300,204	20,525
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.3	26.8	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-15.9	-8.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 102,339 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,070 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.1	40.4	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.4	73.4	6.5
– Net Position:	102,339	-122,247	19,908
– Gross Longs:	122,479	149,139	43,937
– Gross Shorts:	20,140	271,386	24,029
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.5	19.4	36.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-0.1	-15.8

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 54,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,515 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.7	33.1	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	51.2	12.0
– Net Position:	54,034	-52,522	-1,512
– Gross Longs:	106,265	95,838	33,215
– Gross Shorts:	52,231	148,360	34,727
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	41.4	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-14.3	-7.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 35,499 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	35.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	48.6	13.1
– Net Position:	35,499	-25,480	-10,019
– Gross Longs:	73,573	68,586	15,357
– Gross Shorts:	38,074	94,066	25,376
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	63.4	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-6.5	-15.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 16,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,723 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	47.8	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	57.1	5.7
– Net Position:	16,580	-18,172	1,592
– Gross Longs:	63,352	92,854	12,743
– Gross Shorts:	46,772	111,026	11,151
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.9	80.3	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.2	11.2	-0.5

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 9,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,284 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	47.7	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	52.8	3.0
– Net Position:	9,698	-13,322	3,624
– Gross Longs:	80,762	123,639	11,404
– Gross Shorts:	71,064	136,961	7,780
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.4	74.3	32.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	-0.9	24.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -33,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,518 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	42.1	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.0	30.2	11.4
– Net Position:	-33,305	37,024	-3,719
– Gross Longs:	87,807	130,938	31,815
– Gross Shorts:	121,112	93,914	35,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	91.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.2	33.5	17.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

03 Dec

U.S. Dollar: Has the Mainstream Been Way Too Confident?

Meanwhile, greenback’s Elliott waves are showing the way

By Elliott Wave International

Investors who use Elliott wave analysis know that the main price trend of a financial market subdivides into five waves.

Also know that wave 1 and wave 5 are often approximately equal in length.

That knowledge helped the Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which covers 50-plus financial markets, make a successful call on the U.S. Dollar index.

The November issue showed a monthly chart which dates back more than 14 years and said:

The U.S. Dollar Index continues to look like it’s topping. The index is testing the level where wave (5) would equal wave (1), a common relationship.

Keep in mind that Global Market Perspective subscribers get to see all the wave labeling.

With the benefit of hindsight, we now know that the top registered on Sept. 28 — still, that doesn’t discount the fact that the topping process was recognized by using Elliott wave analysis.

Since that analysis on Nov. 4, the U.S. Dollar Index has declined in price.

Another giveaway that the greenback was headed for a tumble is that the mainstream seemed to be growing a bit too confident about the prospect for a further rise in the index. These two magazine covers provide examples of that:

The late analyst Paul Macrae Montgomery showed over the years that specialist industry magazines sometimes highlight financial trends on their covers just as those trends are ending.

Of course, Elliott wave analysis nor any indicator — such as the magazine cover indicator — can offer a guarantee about future market action, but the Elliott wave model and many time-tested indicators have proven to be quite useful throughout different market cycles.

If you’d like to learn about the Elliott wave model, know that the definitive text on the subject is Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from the book which should be in every serious investor’s library:

[R.N.] Elliott himself never speculated on why the market’s essential form is five waves to progress and three waves to regress. He simply noted that that was what was happening. Does the essential form have to be five waves and three waves? Think about it and you will realize that this is the minimum requirement for, and therefore the most efficient method of, achieving both fluctuation and progress in linear movement. One wave does not allow fluctuation. The fewest subdivisions to create fluctuation is three waves. Three waves (of unqualified size) in both directions would not allow progress. To progress in one direction despite periods of regress, movements in that direction must be at least five waves, simply to cover more ground than the intervening three waves. While there could be more waves than that, the most efficient form of punctuated progress is 5-3, and nature typically follows the most efficient path.

Good news: You can read the entire online version of the book for free once you become a member of Club EWI, the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community.

A Club EWI membership is also free and allows you complimentary access to a treasure trove of Elliott wave resources on financial markets, investing and trading. These resources include videos and articles from Elliott Wave International’s analysts.

Hop on the Club EWI bandwagon now by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — get free and instant access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline U.S. Dollar: Has the Mainstream Been Way Too Confident?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

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