Strong economic data may force the Federal Reserve to return to a more hawkish pace

By JustMarkets

In the US, higher-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 3.2% in the third quarter – compared to forecasts of 2.9% growth – has returned fears of an interest rate hike to the market. This led to a strengthening of the dollar index and a selloff in the stock market. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.05%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.45%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed the day at minus 2.18%.

Strong economic data may force the Federal Reserve back to a more hawkish mood. The Fed is especially concerned that a strong labor market gives more oxygen to inflation, which has declined slightly in recent months but is still at its highest level in decades. Therefore, the Fed may have to continue raising interest rates and keep them high for a long time.

Shares of Micron Technology Inc (MU) fell more than 3% after posting quarterly results that didn’t meet expectations. The gloomy macroeconomic backdrop continues to weigh on demand. Deutsche Bank estimates there is a risk of further declines as Micron estimates point to a recovery in demand by mid-2023.

Equity markets in Europe mostly fell yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) decreased by 1.30%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.95%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.39%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed Thursday down by 0.37%.

ECB spokesman Luis De Guindos said yesterday that inflation in the Eurozone would be around current levels for the next 2-3 months. This coincides with other comments from ECB policymakers. In addition, de Guindos supported the hawkish stance, saying that 50 bps is now the new standard for suppressing rising inflationary pressures in the Eurozone. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates twice more with a 0.5% step.

China reiterated its focus on boosting economic growth in 2023, which helped revise the impact of crude oil demand upward. China, the world’s largest consumer and importer of crude oil, naturally influences the overall price depending on the state of the economy. Increasing demand for oil with limited supply will drive up oil prices.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.46%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.69%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 2.71%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) was down by 0.39%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up 0.53% on the day.

In Japan, inflation data showed that consumer prices (excluding food energy prices) rose from 3.6% to 3.7% year-over-year, the highest since 1981. The Bank of Japan expects inflation to peak around 4% early next year. After the Bank of Japan’s shocking decision this week to let bond yields rise, higher inflation will support speculation that the central bank is nearing a policy reversal. A policy change could come in the spring of 2023 after a new governor takes the helm of the Central Bank.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,822.39 −56.05 (−1.45%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,027.49 −348.99 (−1.05%)

DAX (DE40) 13,914.07 −183.75 (−1.30%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,469.28 −28.04 (−0.37%)

USD Index 104.43 +0.27 (+0.26%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Week Ahead: USDJPY to form bearish cross?

By ForexTime

The week following the Christmas weekend features sparse economic data releases and events, as markets wind down 2022.

As much of the western world continues revelling in the festivities, markets may adopt a more Asian-centric focus over the coming week:

 

Monday, December 26

Tuesday, December 27

  • CNH: China November industrial profits
  • JPY: Japan November retail sales, jobless rate
  • UK markets closed

Wednesday, December 28

  • JPY: Bank of Japan summary of opinions, Japan November industrial production

Thursday, December 29

  • EUR: ECB releases Economic Bulletin
  • USD: US weekly initial jobless claims

Friday, December 30

  • US bond market closes early

 

The Japanese Yen could receive special attention, in light of the recent stunner by the Bank of Japan.

In case you missed it, on December 20th, the BoJ unexpectedly widened the band on 10-year yields, which also doubled the ceiling from 0.25% to 0.50%.

The Japanese Yen soared alongside the surge in yields, with markets now believing that this week’s policy tweak paves the way for an eventual rate hike by the Bank of Japan in 2023.

Following the recent policy shocker, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda harped on the idea that the tweak to the BoJ’s yield curve control programme was not a rate hike.

Yet, markets believe otherwise.

At the time of writing, markets are forecasting 4 rate hikes by the BoJ in 2023, with the first perhaps to be triggered in April, when Kuroda steps down as the central bank governor.

READ MORE: Why is the Japanese Yen soaring?

 

Such expectations will frame BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s speech on Monday.

If Kuroda lets slip more hawkish policy clues, that may translate into JPY strength before this calendar year is over.

And the JPY could push higher if the following economic data out of Japan over the coming week also point to some resilience in the Japanese economy, which would lower the bar for BoJ rate hikes in 2023.

 

2 reasons for the Yen’s pullback today (Friday, Dec 23)

  1. Japan’s (slightly) lower-than-expected November inflation

    Japan’s National consumer price index (CPI) released earlier today (Friday, Dec 23) came in at 3.8% for November, a touch below market forecasts of 3.9%.

    That is casting slight doubts on whether Japan’s inflation is problematic enough to warrant a BoJ rate hike, with such doubts perhaps prompting the paring of JPY’s gains against all of its G10 peers.

    Yet, that 3.8% headline inflation figure is still rising at its fastest pace since 1981.

    That suggests that the BoJ would ultimately have to make a pivot away from its ultra-dovish stance, having kept its benchmark rate unchanged at negative 0.1% all of this year. That’s in stark contrast to its global peers have been hiking aggressively to combat the inflation scourge.

 

  1. Recovery from “oversold” conditions

    USDJPY’s 14-day relative strength index has recently bounced off the 30 threshold which denotes ‘oversold’ conditions (this currency pair fell too far too fast).

    However, once the froth has been cleared, it could pave the way for further declines for USDJPY.

 

Potential technical catalyst for further USDJPY declines

At the time of writing, note how this currency pair’s shorter-term 21-day simple moving average (SMA) is just pips away from dropping below its longer-term, 200-day counterpart.

Such a bearish technical event may send USDJPY even lower.

However, USDJPY bears must first overcome a key support region around the 131.0 mark, which helped shored up this FX pair back in August, while also serving as a crucial resistance level back in April/May.

 

Hence, this coming week’s combo of:

  • fundamental factors: Kuroda speech, Japan economic data
  • technical factors: bearish cross?

 … may combine to force USDJPY even lower over the coming week and set the tone for USDJPY in 2023, especially given market expectations for the eventual BoJ rate hike(s).


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Murrey Math Lines 22.12.2022 (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

On H4, the quotes are in the oversold area. The RSI is testing the support level. The quotes are expected to break through 0/8 (0.9277) and grow to the resistance level of 1/8 (0.9399). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level of -1/8 (0.9155), in which case the pair may drop to -2/8 (0.9033).

USDCHFH4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, an additional signal confirming the growth will be a breakaway of the upper line of VoltyChannel.

USDCHF_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates the prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI is nearing the overbought area. As a result, the quotes are expected to growth to the nearest resistance level of 7/8 (1843.75). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level of 6/8 (1812.50). This may drive the price down to 5/8 (1781.25).

USDCAD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the upper line of VoltyChannel is broken, which confirms the uptrend and increases the probability of price growth.

USDCAD_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 22.12.2022 (EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is growing inside a bullish channel. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 1.0595 is expected, followed by growth to 1.0870. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.0535, which will mean further falling to 1.0445.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The currency pair is testing the signal lines of the indicator. The instrument is going below the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a downtrend. A test of the Tenkan-Sen line at 132.15 is expected, followed by falling to 127.45. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 135.55, which will mean further growth to 136.45.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The pair is pushing off the support line. The instrument is going below the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a downtrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 1.2165 is expected, followed by falling to 1.1835. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 1.2335, which will mean further growth to 1.2425.

GBPUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.12.22

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0624
  • Prev Close: 1.0603
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.19 %

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in the US jumped to 108.3 from 101.4, beating economists’ forecast of 101.0. The rise in consumer sentiment has eased fears of a US recession. Investors are now waiting for US GDP data for the latest quarter and data on the PCE Index, which is among the US Federal Reserve’s monitored inflation indicators. Growing inflationary pressures may bring panic moods back to the market, which will cause EUR/USD quotes to fall against the background of the dollar’s strengthening.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0549, 1.0483, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284, 1.0193
  • Resistance levels: 1.0647, 1.0695

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is forming a price corridor. The MACD indicator became positive. Inside the day, purchases prevail. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the moving averages but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0647, but it is better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or false breakout because the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0446 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.12.22:
  • – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2171
  • Prev Close: 1.2082
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.74 %

Today, the UK will release GDP data for the last quarter of 2022. Analysts are predicting that the economy will contract by 0.2%, which will be the second quarter of decline, which will mean a technical recession. The UK’s economic outlook remains murky: record inflation, the energy crisis, and strikes suggest that economic indicators will decline throughout the winter.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2091, 1.2177, 1.2024, 1.1964, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
  • Resistance levels: 1.2218, 1.2308, 1.2431, 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. Yesterday, the price tested the priority change level but failed to consolidate higher. A false breakdown area was formed. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and the volatility on the threshold of the holidays is low. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support level at 1.2092 but with a confirmation at the intraday time frames. Sell trades are best sought from the resistance level of 1.2218 but also better with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down from the 1.2092 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2022.12.22:
  • – UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 131.51
  • Prev Close: 132.45
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.71 %

Japan is the world’s largest holder of US Treasuries outside the United States, and benchmark 10-year bond yields rose about 13 basis points in two sessions following the Bank of Japan’s decision. Investors are shorting yen positions and selling them in bond markets around the world. According to analysts, the sale of Japanese bonds could trigger a panicked influx of cash back into Japan, but so far, this is not happening. The overall fundamental picture is starting to change and comes down to expectations that the Bank of Japan will join other central banks in tightening monetary policy next year.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 131.22
  • Resistance levels: 133.53, 134.73, 135.88, 137.03, 138.00, 139.09

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive, forming a narrow price range. It is better to look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 131.22, but only with confirmation. Sell deals can be looked for from the resistance level of 133.53, provided that there is a reverse reaction.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 137.00, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3610
  • Prev Close: 1.3612
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.01 %

Yesterday, new inflation data was released in Canada. The report showed that year-over-year consumer prices fell from 6.9% to 6.8%, while core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) remained at 5.8% y/y. The key point is that the main components of core price pressures have shown an upward trend, and core inflation remains well above the Bank of Canada’s target, keeping the likelihood of a rate hike at the January meeting high.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3590, 1.3521, 1.3438, 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
  • Resistance levels: 1.3656, 1.3700, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish. But the price is trading below the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is negative, indicating selling pressure inside the day. At the same time, volatility is decreasing in anticipation of the holidays. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.3590, but with a confirmation in the form of a reversal, currently, there is none. Sell deals are best to look for on the intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.3656, but with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or after a false breakout, since the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3386, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Rising consumer sentiment eased recession fears

By JustMarkets

In the United States, the Conference Board consumer confidence indicator jumped to 108.3 from 101.4, beating economists’ forecast of 101.0. Data showing strong consumer sentiment, a key gauge of consumer spending that drives economic growth, eased fears of a recession, leading stock indices to rise. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.60%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.49%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed up by 1.54%.

The improvement in both the current and expectations indices can be attributed to a favorable consumer outlook on the economy and jobs, while inflation expectations reached their lowest level since September 2021. Housing data, on the other hand, did not make investors happy. Existing home sales fell by 7.7% over the past month, indicating serious problems in the real estate sector.

FedEx Corporation (FDX) reported better-than-expected quarterly results and announced plans to cut spending by another $1 billion.

Canadian retail sales were down 0.5% in November. Statistics Canada has indicated that this is a preliminary estimate that may be subject to revision. Also, in Canada, new inflation data was released yesterday. The report showed that year-over-year consumer prices fell from 6.9% to 6.8%, while core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) remained at 5.8% y/y. The concern for the Bank of Canada continues to be rising food prices, indicating that inflation is taking root, with core inflation remaining well above the target. The Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve are set for some policy divergence. The Fed intends to continue raising rates through 2023, while the Bank of Canada has given a more dovish outlook, citing fears of a recession.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) gained 1.54%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) jumped by 2.01%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.43%, Britain’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed by 1.72% higher on Wednesday.

ECB spokesman Centeno said yesterday that the central bank expects Eurozone inflation to peak in the fourth quarter of 2022.

In the UK, according to the latest CBI monthly distribution survey, retailers reported an unexpected rebound in sales growth. The UK government’s decision to freeze business rates starting in April gave welcome relief to the retail sector. But retailers also need to see long-term sustainable growth measures from the government to spur investment and address ongoing labor shortages. Firms are not expecting much of a New Year’s mood, as they plan for sales to decline again after the New Year holidays.

Crude oil prices rose for the third straight day as China, the largest oil importer, continues to loosen measures. Oil prices also rose after US crude inventories fell three times last week as demand for the fuel increased due to more travel as well as holiday parcel delivery activity by truckers. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for February delivery rose by 2.7% to $78.29 a barrel. Brent Crude oil (BRENT) of British origin for February delivery rose by 2.8% to $82.20 per barrel.

The impact of sanctions on Russian crude oil remains a very important issue that still needs to be fully resolved. The EU and their G7 partners have imposed a ban on Russian crude oil since December 5, 2022. This means that the UK will ban the import, purchase, supply, and delivery of Russian oil and oil products to the UK. This ban will potentially hit the price of British Brent Crude and possibly make it more expensive in the long term due to the lack of supply.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.68%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 0.50%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.34%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) lost 1.01%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up 1.29% by the end of Wednesday.

Interest rate hikes in the US and other advanced economies have weighed heavily on Asian currencies this year as the gap between risky and low-risk debt narrowed. While the Bank of Japan’s decision brought some relief to regional currencies this week, it also signaled that Japan’s central bank is likely to tighten policy next year.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,878.44 +56.82 (+1.49%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,376.48 +526.74 (+1.60%)

DAX (DE40) 14,097.82 +213.16 (+1.54%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,497.32 +126.70 (+1.72%)

USD Index 104.20 +0.24 (+0.23%)

Important events for today:
  • – UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Santa Rally coming to town?

By ForexTime

Stock markets found some buyers amid low volumes and holiday liquidity yesterday, with the benchmark S&P 500 enjoying its best session in over a week.

The clue-chip index added close to 1.5%, likewise the other Wall Street indices in a session that got bulls talking about a Santa Rally.

 

What is a ‘Santa Rally’?

Market commentators tend to use the ‘Santa Rally’ term quite broadly to refer to either the entire month of December or a relatively longer time period.

But this term actually refers to the last week of December and the first two trading days of the new year. That is when markets increase in value.

Research shows that this single 7-day period has produced a positive return for the S&P 500 79% of the time. No other similar time period is more likely to be higher.

Of course, seasonality and calendar theories are not a guaranteed way to make profits as it is tough to predict what will impact markets in any given year.

But the January effect when institutional investors ready themselves for the new year to set up positions for the coming weeks can be a positive phenomenon.

These types of investors may also rebalance portfolios for tax-loss selling in December to close out losses, followed by repurchasing in January.

 

Why are stocks climbing this week?

The risk mood rebounded as US headline consumer confidence improved to the highest level since April while better-than-expected earnings from Nike and FedEx also helped boost sentiment.

That said, markets ignored more depressing housing data.

Existing home sales fell for a tenth straight month as the historic surge in US mortgage rate this year continue to pressure the US housing market. This theme may play out across the new year and slowly impact other parts of the economy.

 

With such macro data in mind, the S&P 500 has bounced off a Fib level (23.6%) of the market’s year-to-date declines.

The index is now toying with the 50-day simple moving average at 3893.4 as the immediate resistance level, with the 100-day simple moving average above at 3917.6.

 


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

FTX’s collapse mirrors an infamous 18th century British financial scandal

By Amy Froide, University of Maryland, Baltimore County 

Enron. Bernie Madoff. FTX.

In modern capitalism, it seems as if stories of companies and managers who engage in fraud and swindle their investors occur like the changing of the seasons.

In fact, these scandals can be traced back to the origins of publicly traded companies, when the first stockbrokers bought and sold company shares and government securities in the coffee houses of London’s Exchange Alley during the 1700s.

As a historian of 18th century finance, I am struck by the similarities between what’s known as the Charitable Corporation Scandal and the recent collapse of FTX.

A noble cause

The Charitable Corporation was established in London in 1707 with the noble mission of providing “relief of the industrious poor by assisting them with small sums at legal interest.”

Essentially, it sought to provide low-interest loans to poor tradesmen, shielding them from predatory pawnbrokers who charged as much as 30% interest. The corporation made loans available at the rate of 5% in return for a pledge of property for security.

The Charitable Corporation was modeled on Monti di Pietà, a charitable institution of credit established in Catholic countries during the Renaissance era to combat usury, or high rates of interest.

Unlike the Monti di Pietà, however, the British version – despite its name – wasn’t a nonprofit. Instead, it was a business venture. The enterprise was funded by offering shares to investors who, in return, would make money while doing good. Under its original mission, it was like an 18th century version of today’s socially responsible investing, or “sustainable investment funds.”

Raiding the fund

In 1725, the Charitable Corporation diverted from its original mission when a new board of directors took over.

These men turned the corporation into their own piggy bank, taking money from it to buy shares and prop up their other companies. At the same time, the company’s employees began to engage in fraud: Safety checks ceased, books were kept irregularly and pledges went unrecorded.

Investigators would ultimately find that £400,000 or more in capital was missing – roughly $108 million in today’s U.S. dollars.

In the autumn of 1731, rumors began to circulate about the solvency of the Charitable Corporation. The warehouse keeper at the time, John Thomson, who was in charge of all loans and pledges but also in league with the five fraudulent directors, hid the company’s books and fled the country.

At the shareholders’ quarterly meeting, they found that money, pledges and accounts had all gone missing. At this point, the proprietors of the Charitable Corporation stock appealed to the British Parliament for redress. One-third of those who petitioned were women, a proportion that equaled the percentage of women who held shares in the Charitable Corporation.

Many women were drawn to the corporation because of its public mission in providing small loans to working people. It’s also possible that they had been intentionally targeted for fraud.

The parliamentary investigation led to various charges being leveled against both managers and employees of the Charitable Corporation. Many of them were forced to appear before Parliament and were arrested if they did not. The managers and employees deemed most responsible for the 1732 fraud, such as William Burroughs, had their assets seized and inventoried in order to help pay back the shareholder losses.

Bankruptcy proceedings were started against the banker and broker, George Robinson, and the warehouse keeper, Thomson. Both Sir Robert Sutton and Sir Archibald Grant were expelled as members of the House of Commons, with Grant being prevented from leaving the country and Sutton ultimately prosecuted in several courts.

In the end, the shareholders received a partial government bailout – Parliament authorized a lottery that reimbursed only 40% of what the corporation’s creditors had lost.

The risks of concentrated power

There are several key characteristics that stand out in the collapses of both the Charitable Corporation and FTX. Both companies were offering something new or venturing into a new sector. In the former’s case, it was microloans. In FTX’s case, it was cryptocurrency.

Meanwhile, the management of both ventures was centralized in the hands of just a few people. The Charitable Corporation got into trouble when it reduced its directors from 12 to five and when it consolidated most of its loan business in the hands of one employee – namely, Thomson. FTX’s example is even more extreme, with founder Sam Bankman-Fried calling all the shots.

In both cases, the key fraud was using the assets of one company to prop up another company managed by the same people. For example, in 1732, the corporation’s directors bought stock in the York Buildings Company, in which many of them were also involved. They hoped to juice stock prices. When that didn’t happen, they realized they couldn’t cover what they had taken out of the Charitable Corporation’s funds.

Fast forward nearly 300 years, and a similar story seems to have played out. Bankman-Fried allegedly took money out his customer accounts in FTX to cover his cryptocurrency trading firm, Alameda Research.

News of both frauds also came as a surprise, with little advance warning. Part of this is due to the ways in which managers were well respected and well connected to both politicians and the financial world. Few public figures mistrusted them, and this proved to be a useful screen for deceit.

I would also argue that in both cases the company’s connection to philanthropy lent it another level of cover. The Charitable Corporation’s very name announced its altruism. And even after the scandal subsided, commentators pointed out that the original business of microlending was useful. FTX’s founder Bankman-Fried is an advocate of effective altruism and has argued that it was useful for him and his companies to make lots of money so he could give it away to what he deemed effective causes.

After the Charitable Corporation’s collapse in 1732, Parliament didn’t institute any regulation that would prevent such a fraud from happening again.

A tradition of loose oversight and regulations has been the hallmark of Anglo-American capitalism. If the response to the 2008 financial crash is any indication of what will come in the wake of FTX’s collapse, it’s possible that some bad actors, like Bankman-Fried, will be punished. But any regulation will be undone at the first opportunity – or never put in place to begin with.The Conversation

About the Author:

Amy Froide, Professor of History, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Americans’ personal savings rate is near an all-time low – an economist explains what it means as a potential recession looms

By Arabinda Basistha, West Virginia University 

The rate at which Americans are saving money has dipped close to an all-time low, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The personal savings rate was 2.3% as of October, down from 7.3% a year earlier. It’s the lowest since July 2005, when the rate hit a record low of 2.1%.

We asked Arabinda Basistha, an economist at West Virginia University, to explain the personal savings rate, what’s driving it so low and what it means as a potential recession looms in 2023.

What is the personal savings rate?

The personal savings rate measures how much of Americans’ after-tax, or disposable, income is left over after spending on bills, food, debt and everything else. Calculated and reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, it is an important component of the financial security of American families.

The latest data shows Americans are saving just 2.3%, or US$2.30 of every $100 they earn after paying taxes, down from 7.5% as recently as December 2021. Historically, that’s very low.

From 2015 to 2019, for example, this rate averaged around 7.6%. It rose dramatically during the COVID-19 shutdown in early 2020, to a record high of 33.8%. With restaurants, entertainment venues and almost everything else closed, Americans had fewer things to spend money on.

That’s changed as economies have opened up and people eager to travel and dine out have begun to spend the money they had saved.

Will the savings rate decline continue?

American consumers usually do not change their consumption and saving behavior dramatically.

So to understand this decline, it’s important to add some historical context.

The last time the savings rate fell this low, in 2005, it was part of a trend that lasted several years. From 1998 to 2004, rates averaged about 5.4%, slipping to 3.3% from 2005 to 2007. Thus the 2.1% rate recorded in July 2005 should be seen as part of a low-savings rate phase.

In recent years, Americans have been saving more of their disposable income. The savings rate averaged nearly 9% in 2019 just before the pandemic stifled spending. This led to the massive swing upward in savings.

An October 2022 study by the Federal Reserve found that U.S. households accumulated $2.3 trillion during the pandemic, thanks in part to about $1.5 trillion in direct fiscal support.

Rates swung again in the other direction, as consumer spending has surged and people use up those excess savings. Against this backdrop, I believe it is quite unlikely that the current low rates will continue for long, as consumers adjust back to pre-2020 patterns.

What does the drop in savings signal about the state of Americans’ finances?

While the savings rate is important, it doesn’t give us the full picture of Americans’ financial health. Moreover, one should not put too much importance on a single set of recent data, as future revisions can be large.

A few other measures are necessary to assess the state of household finances.

First, current delinquency rates – the share of all loans that are past due for at least 30 days – are at just 1.2%, the lowest since at least the 1980s. The rate is 1.9% for consumer loans and 2.1% for credit cards. Both rates have increased since 2021 but are still historically low.

The low rates are partly due to the pandemic forbearance programs and fiscal support, but still show Americans are in pretty good shape financially.

Another metric worth looking at is the household debt to gross domestic product ratio. This measures the debt burden of U.S. households relative to the size of the economy. The latest data from June 2022 shows the ratio at 76%, which is near the lowest in about two decades. Ahead of the 2007-2009 recession, the ratio was significantly higher, at about 100%.

A third measure of Americans’ financial health is the share of disposable income spent on payments for mortgages and other debts. U.S. households spent about 9.6% of their incomes servicing debts in the second quarter of 2022, well below the 12.8% average from 2005 to 2007.

So if there’s a recession in 2023, does this mean Americans will be ready for it?

Adding all this information together, household finances look quite stable and able to withstand moderate economic risks to the U.S. economy.

This is not to argue that a persistently low savings rate will not be an issue in the future. If the savings rate remains low for another year, it will weaken household financial positions.The Conversation

About the Author:

Arabinda Basistha, Associate Professor of Economics, West Virginia University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Biotech at Good Entry Point for Investors, Analyst Says

Source: Andrew Partheniou  (12/20/22)

The company, focused on psychedelic-assisted psychotherapies to better treat addiction, is worth more than the CA$10 million the market is valuing it at, noted a Stifel report.

Awakn Life Sciences Corp. (AWKN:NEO; AWKNF:OTCQB) is currently undervalued and, thus, providing investors an attractive time to get into the stock, reported Stifel analyst Andrew Partheniou in a Dec. 16 research note.

With the Canadian biotech firm, the “market sees about a CA$10 million ($10M) valuation,” he wrote. “We see a Phase 3 company with a derisked molecule.”

Further, Awakn offers significant potential return for investors given the difference between its current share price (CA$0.40) and Stifel’s target price on it (CA$1.75). As such, Stifel rates the biotech Speculative Buy.

The reasons Stifel considers Awakn undervalued are its three recent key accomplishments, Partheniou wrote, “despite a materially challenging market backdrop.”

Recent Progress Made

1) Awakn completed the second tranche of its capital raise, generating US$1.9M. The two tranches together and debt settlement yielded US$3M, enough to get it through the next three quarters, Partheniou wrote.

“This could provide the company with time to realize some potential catalyst to create shareholder value through derisking its outlook and pursue another equity financing,” he added.

2) Awakn partnered with the British government on the life sciences firm’s Phase 3 pivotal trial of ketamine for alcohol use disorder, and it will be conducted at seven National Health Service sites. Also, the company secured governmental funding in the form of a grant that will cover 66% of the trial cost, or CA$3.75M, dropping Awakn’s contribution at CA$1.25M, “a significantly advantageous position,” noted Partheniou.

3) Awakn further grew its ketamine clinic business, adding locations in Norway and the U.S. reported Partheniou. In Norway, the biotech signed a lease for a second location, expected to be up and running by late Q1/23. The company also entered a licensing agreement with Nushama in New York, making it the third such arrangement in North America. Nushama will pay Awakn an annual fee and a royalty of an unknown amount.

“Hence, we see good momentum overall,” wrote Partheniou.

Disclosures:
1) Doresa Banning wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

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Disclosures For Stifel GMP, Awakn Life Sciences Corp a.nd Cybin Inc.,  December 16, 2022

I, Andrew Partheniou, certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers; and I, Andrew Partheniou, certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report.

Stifel or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Awakn Life Sciences Corp. in the next 3 months. The equity research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report receive(s) compensation based on various factors, including Stifel’s overall revenue, which includes investment banking revenue.

The information contained herein has been prepared from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data, nor is it considered an offer to buy or sell any securities referred to herein. Opinions expressed are as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice. These opinions do not constitute a personal recommendation and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual investors. Employees of Stifel, or its affiliates may, at times, release written or oral commentary, technical analysis or trading strategies that differ from the opinions expressed within. Stifel or any of its affiliates may have positions in the securities mentioned and may make purchases or sales of such securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise and may sell to or buy from customers such securities on a principal basis; such transactions may be contrary to recommendations in this report. Past performance should not and cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

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