InvestMacro

Investors are waiting for tech giants’ reports. Indices are rising on lower inflationary pressures around the world

The US indices closed higher on Monday as shares of major technology companies and chipmakers were on the upside ahead of reports from tech giants. At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.73%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.19%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 2.01% yesterday.

Barclays Bank upgraded AMD (AMD), Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM), and NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) forecasts, raising shares by more than 9%, 6%, and 7%, respectively.

The Federal Reserve’s slowdown in interest rate hikes is becoming obvious. According to the latest Federal Reserve CME data, the US Federal Reserve is set to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the FOMC meeting on February 1 and another 25 basis points at its next meeting in March. The US central bank will then hold rates until the fourth quarter. Investors also expect a US rate cut of about 50 basis points at the end of the year.

Stock markets in Europe mostly rose Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) gained 0.46%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.52%, Spain’s IBEX 35 Index (ES35) jumped by 0.29%, Britain’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.18% yesterday.

According to Governing Council spokesman Klaas Knot, the European Central Bank should continue to raise interest rates by 0.5% at its next two meetings, and the time for slowing the pace of increases is “still a long way off.” The hawkish head of the Dutch central bank had already argued last week for the ECB to continue tightening policy, arguing that core inflation is still rising, even though the basic indicator is slowing.

China has been setting the trend for oil prices lately. The reopening of China’s economy has led to an increase in demand, which at the current supply level has given an impulse to oil prices. This week is a holiday week in China, so oil quotes will depend on the current demand/supply and the dynamics of the dollar index. Analysts expect a spike in COVID-19 cases after the holidays as the Chinese travel freely for the first time in three years.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 1.33%, and China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was not trading and will not trade for the rest of the week due to the holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was also not trading yesterday, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) increased by 0.50%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day up by 0.07%.

In Australia, the manufacturing PMI index dipped below the 50 mark for the first time. The index fell from 50.2 to 49.8. The service sector PMI rose from 47.3 to 48.3. Tomorrow’s quarterly CPI data will be scrutinized for clues to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision. A survey of economists suggests that the overall Consumer Price Index will rise from 7.6% to 7.8% year-over-year. Rising inflation will undoubtedly force the RBA to act more aggressively.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,019.65 +47.04 (+1.18%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,628.84 +253.35 (+0.76%)

DAX (DE40) 15,102.95 +69.39 (+0.46%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,784.67 +14.08 (+0.18%)

USD Index 102.07 +0.06 (+0.06%)

Important events for today:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– French Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+2);
– French Services PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+2);
– Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– Germany Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 11:45 (GMT+2);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
– US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

24 Jan

Positive US Rate Outlook Boosts Risk Sentiment

By ForexTime

Asian shares rose on Tuesday, following the positive cues from Wall Street overnight as growth stocks looked enticing ahead of major tech earnings. Mounting expectations over a less aggressive Federal Reserve stimulated appetite for risk, magnetising investors towards the equity space. However, markets in mainland China and Taiwan remain closed for the Lunar New Year holiday and reopen for trading on January 30. European futures are pointing to a positive open this morning after finishing higher in the previous session, and this could trickle back down to Wall Street later today.

In the currency space, the dollar ticked lower while the euro is lingering below 1.09 after yesterday’s attempted breakout. Oil bulls seem to be drawing strength from rising demand hopes as China’s economy reopens, while gold remains supported by US recession fears and bets of slower rate hikes in 2023.

The next few days promise to be eventful for equity markets thanks to corporate earnings, with Microsoft reporting its results after the bell today and Tesla releasing its earnings late Wednesday. It is also a data-heavy week with economic reports from Europe and the United States in sharp focus, including PMI surveys today and US fourth quarter GDP on Thursday. Regarding central bank meetings, all eyes will be on the Bank of Canada rate decision tomorrow which is expected to conclude with a 25-basis point rate hike.

EURUSD gearing up for a breakout?

This could be a volatile week for EURUSD thanks to key economic data and speeches from financial heavyweights.

The discussions around monetary policy among officials at the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank continue, with focus increasingly drawn to their policy meetings next week. On one side of the coin, the euro continues to draw strength from a weaker dollar, high inflation in the Eurozone, and a hawkish ECB. On the other side, repeated signs of easing inflation in the US have fueled speculation around a less aggressive Fed. The narrowing monetary policy divergence between the Fed and ECB could translate to further upside for the already bullish EURUSD.

Much attention will be directed towards not only the pending Eurozone and US January PMIs today, but also ECB President Lagarde’s speech which may influence the currency pair. Regarding the technical picture, prices remain bullish on the daily charts with resistance found at 1.09. A solid breakout and daily close above this point could signal a move toward the next key level of interest at 1.12.

Currency spotlight – GBPUSD

Yesterday was a choppy affair for the GBPUSD as prices bounced within a range just below 1.24. Nevertheless, the outlook remains bullish on the daily charts due to the recent series of consistent higher highs and higher lows. There could be some action on the GBPUSD this morning thanks to the UK and US January PMIs. However, bulls remain in a position of power with support found just above 1.23. If the currency pair has the strength to advance decisively beyond 1.24, an incline toward the 1.26 region could become reality. Should the upside lose steam and dip below 1.23, prices could sink back towards 1.2170.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold bulls continue to draw confidence from US recession fears and expectations around a less aggressive Federal Reserve. The precious metal certainly remains on a roll, securing five consecutive weekly gains, and could push higher if the fundamental drivers remain unchanged. A weaker dollar and soft US economic data could further sweeten appetite for gold over the next few days. Looking at the technical picture, prices remain bullish making fresh 9-month highs this morning and could test $1950 and beyond.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

23 Jan

Inflation hasn’t increased US food insecurity overall, according to our new tracker

By Sam Polzin, Purdue University and Jayson Lusk, Purdue University

Grocery prices soared by 11.8% in 2022 – the swiftest pace since the early 1980s. Rapid inflation is, naturally, leading to concerns that it’s getting harder for Americans to put food on the table.

Indeed, Feeding America, a nonprofit that supports and connects roughly 60,000 food banks and pantries nationwide, has said that at least half of its members are seeing more demand for their services. And many journalists are reporting about struggling parents waiting in long lines for free food.

We are experts on food and agricultural economics. Together we have created a new data dashboard that tracks U.S. food insecurity – the technical term for having trouble getting enough nutritious food – based on publicly available information.

The data we’re collecting ourselves, as well as the information that we’ve compiled from other sources, including the Census Bureau, isn’t yet reflecting a sharp uptick in households without enough to eat. U.S. food insecurity has remained at troubling and yet relatively flat levels.

Based on all the data we’ve included in our dashboard, we estimate that over the course of 2022 somewhere between 11% and 15% of those living in the U.S. struggled with securing their next meal.

This range relies, in part, on internet-based surveys that can often produce food insecurity estimates that are higher than official government data. Because it is expensive to reach a true random sample of Americans, cheaper online surveys are commonly unrepresentative of the U.S. population but still prove to be a key tool for measuring changes compared with previous online surveys.

Official estimates are delayed and possibly low

Food insecurity is officially assessed based on a series of survey questions developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service. Every December, the federal government uses this measure to assess food insecurity for the past year. Following extensive analysis, it releases that data in September of the next year.

The official food insecurity rate hovered around 10.5% from 2019 to 2021, according to the USDA.

During those same three years, however, other researchers detected both lower and much higher rates. Our average of these surveys suggests that national levels may have peaked at nearly 19% in the months following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic the U.S. in March 2020.

Within about six months, food insecurity returned to the 10%-11% range, based on our average of available data.

A mismatch between the facts and the coverage

Why are reports of long lines at food banks and increased demand for free food apparently at odds with the relative stability in the national food insecurity rate?

One reason could be that food insecurity rates, which generally overlap with social and economic inequality, can differ sharply.

For example, Nassau County, which spans many of New York City’s largely affluent Long Island suburbs, had a food insecurity rate of 5.7% in 2020. In nearby Bronx County, New York state’s lowest-income county, the food insecurity rate was more than three times that, at 19.7%, according to Feeding America’s Map the Meal Gap study.

As a result, food security can get worse or better in particular communities without affecting the national rate.

Another explanation could be that government programs and nonprofits that help people get enough food are succeeding. The number of people getting Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, sometimes referred to as “food stamps” and generally just called SNAP, increased by 2.8% from January to October 2022, to 42.3 million.

In some states, SNAP benefits remain at the elevated levels instituted when the COVID-19 pandemic began.

Survey data from our Consumer Food Insights reports also shows that the average length of time households receive SNAP benefits increased from 9.5 months to 12.4 months in 2022.

Nearly 7% of households were visiting food pantries in December 2022, according to the Census Bureau, up from 4.4% in 2019. At the same time, the USDA announced an additional US$2 billion in funding to emergency food providers to deal with elevated food costs.

The charitable food system is decentralized, making it hard if not impossible to determine whether the amount of food donated to Americans overall has changed. As Feeding America reports, the 2.5 billion meals that its network provided in the first half of 2022 came from a range of donors, with its corporate partners playing a big role.

The data further suggests that, while consumer confidence about the overall economy is at a historically low level, fears of an economic downturn don’t reflect the fact that many people still have more money saved up than they did before 2020. Similarly, unemployment, which dipped to 3.5% in December 2022, is at the historically low levels last seen before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Finally, researchers have found that incomes over time and accumulated savings are more closely tied to whether families will experience food insecurity than what their breadwinners currently earn. Because the disposable incomes of many Americans rose in 2020 and 2021, it will probably take a deeper economic shock than the nearly 12% increase in grocery prices registered between December 2021 and December 2022 to make food insecurity soar.

Getting clearer pictures

To be clear, we do not mean to suggest that food insecurity is not a serious issue or that having more than 1 in 10 Americans struggle to get enough to eat is acceptable.

Rather, we noticed that policy and research interest in food insecurity spiked in the year following COVID-19 shutdowns, resulting in much more data on the topic before dwindling in 2021. Today, the public is paying more attention to the topic again.

Food banks and SNAP benefits collectively have provided around $130 billion in annual economic relief for low-income Americans in recent years, a number that includes a sharp increase in benefits. We believe that these efforts are vital.

We propose that conducting and releasing more frequent high-quality surveys would help bring sustained attention to the issue, clarify trends and allow experts like us to make better predictions.

And because all food insecurity surveys are subject to sampling errors and offer only a snapshot regarding a single time frame, we believe that pooling the multiple surveys featured in our data dashboard can better inform policymakers and charities that seek to address food insecurity and rapidly respond when levels spike.

About the Author:

Sam Polzin, Food and Agriculture Survey Scientist, Purdue University and Jayson Lusk, Professor of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

23 Jan

Murrey Math Lines 23.01.2023 (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

On H4, the quotes are in the overbought area. The RSI is also nearing the overbought area. As a result, a downward breakaway of +1/8 (1.0864) should be expected, from where the price might fall to the support level of 8/8 (1.0741). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of +2/8 (1.0986), which might lead to reshuffling of Murrey lines and setting new goals for the price.

On M15, an additional signal confirming the decline will be a breakaway of the lower border of VoltyChannel.

GBPUSDD

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates an uptrend. However, the RSI demonstrates a divergence. This means that a bounce off 6/8 (1.2451) should be expected, followed by falling to the support level of 4/8 (1.2207). This movement will be interpreted as a correction of the uptrend. The scenario can be cancelled by an upward breakaway of 6/8 (1.2451), in which case the pair might continue growth and reach 7/8 (1.2573).

On M15, a breakaway of the lower border of VoltyChannel will increase the probability of falling.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

23 Jan

Mass layoffs have begun in the United States. The Bank of Japan to continue its soft monetary policy

By JustMarkets

At the close of the stock market on Friday, Dow Jones (US30) gained 1.00% (-2.05% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) increased by 1.89% (+0.30% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.66% on Friday (+2.15% for the week).

The US government reached its $31.4 trillion borrowing limit on Thursday amid a spat between uncompromising Republicans and Democrats over raising the nation’s debt ceiling. But traders can be sure the politicians will eventually agree because they have no choice. It happens every year, and this time is no exception.

This week, investors will be treated to a wave of reports from major technology companies. Microsoft (MSFT), the second largest US company by market value, reports on Tuesday, followed by Tesla (TSLA) on Wednesday and Intel (INTC) on Thursday. The reporting season started sluggishly. According to Refinitiv, S&P 500 companies are expected to record a 2.9% drop in fourth-quarter earnings overall compared with the previous year.

Alphabet (GOOGL) said Friday that it is cutting about 12,000 jobs or 6% of its workforce. Last week, Microsoft on Wednesday said it would cut 10,000 jobs, while Amazon (AMZN) began notifying employees that it would cut 18,000 jobs. Apparently, the US job market is starting to fall, which will undoubtedly show up in the next labor market reports. For regular people losing their jobs is a serious blow. But for the stock market, it will be a boost as the US Federal Reserve will hold off on raising rates so as not to hurt the economy even more.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.76% (-0.52% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR 40) added 0.63% (-0.58% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 1.38% (+0.13% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) increased by 0.30% (-0.94% for the week).

In Canada, a federal government law designed to help the fossil fuel workforce transition to a greener economy has caused unions to be unhappy. The government of Alberta, Canada’s main oil-producing province, says the law will eliminate the oil and gas industry, which accounts for 5% of Canada’s GDP. Canada’s oil and gas sector employs about 185,000 people, and the bill could lead to significant job cuts.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is currently leading the charge against the US Federal Reserve. Last week, support for the euro was largely due to a sell-off in the dollar and a firm stance by ECB President Christine Lagarde on fighting inflation. The ECB head expressed concern that China’s opening will lead to higher energy prices in 2023, and the ECB will continue to raise interest rates to bring inflation down to 2%.

British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt plans to extend the 5 pence reduction in gasoline prices for another year. On the one hand, this is good news because it will help reduce the cost of gasoline at gas stations. On the other hand, untargeted government spending may keep inflation high for longer, which will only make it harder for the Bank of England, which needs to keep raising rates while the economy is already in recession.

Inflation in Switzerland may have peaked, but it’s too soon to swear off new interest rate hikes, Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan said.

Asian markets mostly rose last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.77% over the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.73%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.04% over the week, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) added 0.16%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.69% over the week.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Friday defended the central bank’s decision to expand its trading range under its yield curve control program and pledged to continue the Bank of Japan’s soft monetary policy. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Kuroda said it was “not wrong” for the BOJ’s board to widen its tolerance range for the yield on its 10-year government bond from 25 basis points to 50 basis points last month.

In the commodities market, cotton futures (+5.46%), gasoline (+4.23%), Brent crude oil (+2.79%), and WTI crude oil (+2.29%) showed the biggest gains last week. Futures on natural gas (-8.34%), palladium (-3.21%), cocoa (-2.94%), and platinum (-1.92%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,972.61 +73.76 (+1.89%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,375.49 +330.93 (+1.00%)

DAX (DE40) 15,033.56 +113.20 (+0.76%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,770.59 +23.30 (+0.30%)

USD Index 101.99 -0.07 (-0.06%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 19:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

23 Jan

Trade Of The Week: EURUSD In Breakout Mode?

By ForexTime

EURUSD may be gearing up for a major breakout as the technicals and fundamentals continue to align.

Over the past few months, euro bulls dominated the scene – pushing prices further away from parity. It also stood its ground in the G10 space, appreciating against most counterparts thanks to fundamental forces.

The single European currency has already kicked off the trading week punching above 1.09, marking a new high since April 2022! With the strong upside momentum showing little signs of cooling down, further upside could be on the cards – especially with the support of economic data.

As the discussion around interest rates between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central bank (ECB) rages on, this is likely to result in increased volatility for the EURUSD. The Euro continues to draw strength from a weaker dollar, rising inflation in the Eurozone, and most importantly a hawkish ECB. On the other hand, repeated signs of easing inflationary pressures in the United States have fuelled speculation about the Fed slowing down its pace of rate increases. Ultimately, the narrowing monetary policy divergence between both central banks is likely to fuel the upside in the EURUSD.

Taking a quick look at the technical picture, the EURUSD remains firmly bullish on the daily charts with prices pressing against 1.0900 as of writing. A solid breakout above this point could encourage an incline towards 1.1200.

The low down…

Christine Lagarde delivered her hawkish message to Davos last week, warning markets not to underestimate the ECB’s monetary policy. Lagarde stated that inflation remained “way too high” with the ECB determined to stay the course on rates till inflation returned to 2%. Markets widely expect the central bank to raise interest rates by 50 basis points next month and potentially a similar move in March. However, this may be influenced by economic data and the Ukraine war. Nevertheless, with inflation still at lofty levels, this may keep doves at bay while empowering hawks.

Regarding the Fed, it has kicked off a two-week black period ahead of the rate meeting on Wednesday 1st of February. With Fed speeches out of the picture, the dollar is set to be influenced by key economic reports. If the incoming data continues to fuel dollar weakness, this will add to the growing list of factors pushing the EURUSD higher.

The week ahead

It is a data-heavy week for the EUR and USD.

On Monday, the Euro was knocked lower by the disappointing consumer confidence figures for January. Although consumer confidence rose for a third month to -22.2 in December 2022, this was below market expectations. Appetite towards the single Euro currency could be rekindled if Christine Lagarde strikes a hawkish note during her speech this evening.

Tuesday sees the Eurozone and US January PMI’s which could inject fresh volatility into the EURUSD. On Wednesday, we have the January IFO business climate figure for Germany, and all-important US Q4 GDP figures on Thursday. The first estimate of Q4 GDP is expected to show that economic growth slowed in Q4. According to Bloomberg, forecasts point to an increase of 2.7% compared to the 3.2% growth witnessed in the third quarter of 2022. A disappointing figure may compound the dollar’s woes, dragging prices lower as bets on smaller Fed rate hikes intensify. Much attention will be on the US December personal income data, including the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – the core PCE deflator. This is expected to cool further to 4.4% year-on-year compared to the 4.7% seen in November. A report that meets or prints below forecast may weaken the USD even further.

EURUSD poised to push higher

In our 2023 market outlook, we highlighted how a weaker dollar could fuel the EURUSD’s great rebound. Fast forward to today, the currency pair has jumped almost 400 pips. Prices remain firmly bullish on the daily, weekly, and monthly timeframe. Although 1.0900 may provide some resistance, the fundamentals and technicals favour further upside. A strong monthly close above 1.0900 may signal a move towards 1.1200 in February.

Zooming into the daily charts, there are a couple of smaller checkpoints before prices potentially hit 1.1200, which are 1.0970 and 1.1120. Should 1.0900 prove to be reliable resistance, a decline towards 1.0770 and 1.0700 could be on the table.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

21 Jan

Currency Speculators retreat from US Dollar Index bullish bets to a 78-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 17th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (12,416 contracts) with the British Pound (4,759 contracts), Mexican Peso (4,742 contracts), Canadian Dollar (3,696 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (70 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-7,998 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (-3,182 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,292 contracts), Bitcoin (-33 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-571 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies data is the recent declines in the US Dollar Index bullish speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for the US Dollar Index fell this week for a second straight week and for the third time out of the past five weeks. The speculator’s bullish position has almost fallen by half over the past five weeks going from a total of +25,778 contracts on December 13th to a total of +13,358 contracts this week. These declines have now pushed the Dollar Index to the least bullish level for speculators since July 20th of 2021, a span of 78 weeks.

Since riding a strong bullish wave to a 274-week high on June 14th of 2022 (at +45,010 contracts), the US Dollar Index speculator positioning has been in a slow but steady downtrend that continued this week.

The US Dollar Index futures price has also been in a downtrend after ascending to a multi-year peak in September at the 114.74 level. That marked the best price level for the Dollar Index since 2002 and was the start of the recent slide that has brought the Dollar Index to its current level of 101.78 (for an approximate loss of 11 percent). Since September, most of the major currencies have gained against the Dollar and have made some moderate recoveries after falling to multi-decade lows.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-17-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	39,388	44	13,358	47	-15,570	51	2,212	41
EUR	753,915	92	126,984	74	-179,074	25	52,090	62
GBP	201,956	38	-24,697	48	31,436	55	-6,739	45
JPY	176,862	36	-22,961	55	18,084	44	4,877	63
CHF	34,300	16	-7,941	34	11,357	64	-3,416	46
CAD	132,346	18	-27,259	9	27,488	92	-229	30
AUD	128,213	28	-33,620	54	25,936	38	7,684	71
NZD	31,579	10	6,058	70	-6,686	31	628	59
MXN	274,227	84	-48,639	7	42,299	90	6,340	95
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	40,800	28	22,193	70	-23,748	30	1,555	79
Bitcoin	15,885	83	-627	66	337	0	290	20

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & New Zealand Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (74 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (70 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (70 percent), Bitcoin (66 percent) and the Japanese Yen (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (7 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (34 percent) and the US Dollar Index (47 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (47.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (52.5 percent)
EuroFX (74.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (47.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (43.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (54.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (47.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (33.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (35.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (4.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (53.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (53.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (70.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (73.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (6.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.2 percent)
Bitcoin (66.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (66.6 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (34 percent) and the Japanese Yen (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (21 percent), the Swiss Franc (11 percent) and the Australian Dollar (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-19 percent), Bitcoin (-12 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-19.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-13.9 percent)
EuroFX (0.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (3.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (6.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (26.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (19.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (11.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (18.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-6.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-17.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (6.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (10.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (33.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (33.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (-41.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-50.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (21.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (15.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-12.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-16.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 13,358 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,182 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,540 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.5	2.6	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	42.1	7.8
– Net Position:	13,358	-15,570	2,212
– Gross Longs:	31,694	1,031	5,292
– Gross Shorts:	18,336	16,601	3,080
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	51.0	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.2	19.0	-4.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 126,984 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 134,982 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	55.2	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	79.0	5.6
– Net Position:	126,984	-179,074	52,090
– Gross Longs:	228,279	416,510	94,476
– Gross Shorts:	101,295	595,584	42,386
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	25.2	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	-5.4	27.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -24,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	64.7	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	49.1	15.2
– Net Position:	-24,697	31,436	-6,739
– Gross Longs:	41,469	130,575	24,051
– Gross Shorts:	66,166	99,139	30,790
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.8	55.4	44.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-4.3	5.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	65.0	17.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	54.7	14.6
– Net Position:	-22,961	18,084	4,877
– Gross Longs:	29,458	114,907	30,761
– Gross Shorts:	52,419	96,823	25,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.7	44.5	63.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.5	-27.9	28.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -7,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,370 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	55.2	33.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.6	22.1	43.3
– Net Position:	-7,941	11,357	-3,416
– Gross Longs:	3,919	18,933	11,429
– Gross Shorts:	11,860	7,576	14,845
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	63.7	46.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-10.7	7.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -27,259 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,696 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	57.0	24.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	36.2	24.5
– Net Position:	-27,259	27,488	-229
– Gross Longs:	20,897	75,387	32,211
– Gross Shorts:	48,156	47,899	32,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.3	91.6	29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	3.8	1.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 70 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	55.4	20.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.5	35.2	14.6
– Net Position:	-33,620	25,936	7,684
– Gross Longs:	28,593	71,052	26,348
– Gross Shorts:	62,213	45,116	18,664
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.7	38.2	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.4	-12.6	24.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 6,058 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	50.3	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	71.5	10.4
– Net Position:	6,058	-6,686	628
– Gross Longs:	11,308	15,888	3,903
– Gross Shorts:	5,250	22,574	3,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.4	30.7	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.6	-30.6	5.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.9	41.5	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.6	26.1	0.9
– Net Position:	-48,639	42,299	6,340
– Gross Longs:	150,543	113,924	8,681
– Gross Shorts:	199,182	71,625	2,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	90.4	94.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.2	39.9	5.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,701 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.5	10.5	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	68.7	6.2
– Net Position:	22,193	-23,748	1,555
– Gross Longs:	32,429	4,270	4,096
– Gross Shorts:	10,236	28,018	2,541
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.7	30.2	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.4	-20.4	-6.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -627 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -33 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.4	6.0	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.4	3.9	7.2
– Net Position:	-627	337	290
– Gross Longs:	12,456	951	1,440
– Gross Shorts:	13,083	614	1,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.0	80.9	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	44.0	-4.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

21 Jan

COT Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal, Ultra 10-Year Treasuries lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 17th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 20.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 166,350 net contracts this week with a rise of 8,640 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is now at a 76.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 15.3 this week. The speculator position registered -52,355 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 20,452 contracts in speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Euro speculator level resides at a 74.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 0.6 this week. The overall speculator position was 126,984 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,998 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 72.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 23.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 74,143 net contracts this week with a dip of -5,851 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level sits at a 70.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 33.6 this week.

The speculator position was 6,058 net contracts this week with a decrease of -1,292 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -126,321 net contracts this week with a decline of -28,051 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.0 this week. The speculator position was -42,014 net contracts this week with a dip of -2,298 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

10-Year Note

The 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 10-Year Note speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -24.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -545,057 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -133,699 contracts in the speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Coffee speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.4 this week. The speculator position was -26,745 net contracts this week with a decline of -12,006 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 1.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.8 this week. The speculator position was -680,655 net contracts this week with a drop of -57,504 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

21 Jan

Metals Speculators boosted their Gold Bullish Bets higher for 7th week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as three out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (6,011 contracts) with Gold (2,705 contracts) and Silver (2,455 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-7,158 contracts) and Palladium (-261 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the recent streak of gains for the Gold speculative positions. The large speculator position in Gold futures rose this week for a seventh consecutive week and for the ninth time out of the past eleven weeks. The Gold position has now gone from a multi-year low total of +64,623 contracts on November 1st to a total of +153,240 contracts this week which marks the highest weekly total of the past 29 weeks, dating back to June 28th.

The Gold futures price has been on the move higher since seeing a recent bottom in October around the $1,620.00 level. This week, the Gold futures closed at $1,928.20 per ounce which is the highest close since April and Gold is showing an approximate gain by 18 percent since the October bottom.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-17-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	491,818	22	153,240	34	-175,913	65	22,673	37
Silver	131,862	9	31,468	49	-45,367	52	13,899	40
Copper	201,455	42	16,238	49	-22,695	49	6,457	63
Palladium	8,799	16	-2,751	12	2,902	86	-151	33
Platinum	71,144	41	23,544	41	-28,913	59	5,369	40

Strength Scores led by Silver & Copper

On the downside, Palladium (12 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Gold (34 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (33.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (32.6 percent)
Silver (48.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (46.1 percent)
Copper (49.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (44.5 percent)
Platinum (40.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (50.4 percent)
Palladium (11.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (14.3 percent)

Silver & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (14 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (13 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-3 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (12.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (13.4 percent)
Silver (13.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (12.7 percent)
Copper (11.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.6 percent)
Platinum (-2.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (8.7 percent)
Palladium (-12.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-7.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 153,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 150,535 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.2	25.0	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	60.7	5.2
– Net Position:	153,240	-175,913	22,673
– Gross Longs:	246,874	122,814	48,128
– Gross Shorts:	93,634	298,727	25,455
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.5	64.8	36.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.6	-14.2	19.4

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,455 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,013 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.6	32.4	18.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	66.8	7.6
– Net Position:	31,468	-45,367	13,899
– Gross Longs:	57,439	42,668	23,983
– Gross Shorts:	25,971	88,035	10,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.8	52.4	39.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-12.4	4.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,227 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	34.7	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	46.0	6.7
– Net Position:	16,238	-22,695	6,457
– Gross Longs:	84,910	69,997	19,961
– Gross Shorts:	68,672	92,692	13,504
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.2	49.4	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.6	-14.2	21.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 23,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,702 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.8	27.9	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	68.5	3.9
– Net Position:	23,544	-28,913	5,369
– Gross Longs:	40,387	19,831	8,162
– Gross Shorts:	16,843	48,744	2,793
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.7	59.1	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	1.6	11.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	57.1	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.4	24.1	16.3
– Net Position:	-2,751	2,902	-151
– Gross Longs:	2,125	5,025	1,285
– Gross Shorts:	4,876	2,123	1,436
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.9	86.3	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	14.3	-17.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

21 Jan

Bonds Speculators increased 10-Year Treasury Bearish Bets to 222-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & Eurodollar

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (26,095 contracts) with the Eurodollar (1,683 contracts) also seeing positive a week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-133,699 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-57,504 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-35,008 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-6,620 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14,022 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-28,051 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT bonds data is the sharp decline in the 10-Year Treasury Bond speculator positioning. The 10-Year Bond large speculator positions fell this week by a total of -133,699 contracts and have now dropped for four consecutive weeks. The speculator bets have declined in six out of the past seven weeks as well. These last four weeks alone have added a total of -228,114 bearish contracts to the overall bearish position of -545,057 contracts. This weakness has driven the current speculator level to the most bearish point of the past 222 weeks, dating back to October 15th of 2018.

Despite the current speculator sentiment, the 10-Year Bond prices have been edging a little higher since hitting a multi-year low in October. The 10-Year interest rate (rates rise as bond prices fall) is sitting around 3.50 percent currently after peaking in October at just above 4.33 percent.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-17-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	5,891,238	0	-1,053,852	34	1,265,098	64	-211,246	58
FedFunds	1,645,779	59	-86,235	29	105,583	73	-19,348	12
2-Year	2,335,967	25	-462,671	18	452,042	79	10,629	57
Long T-Bond	1,222,141	47	-192,393	22	170,932	72	21,461	70
10-Year	4,018,107	66	-545,057	0	615,855	95	-70,798	63
5-Year	4,159,392	60	-680,655	1	689,573	90	-8,918	79

Strength Scores led by Eurodollar & Fed Funds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Eurodollar (34 percent) and the Fed Funds (29 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (23 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (1 percent) and 2-Year Bond (18.3 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (29.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (25.8 percent)
vs 2-Year Bond previous week (19.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (1.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (8.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (18.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (22.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (33.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (23.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (29.1 percent)
Eurodollar (33.8 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (33.7 percent)

Eurodollar & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (11 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (-1 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-24 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-0.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-9.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-2.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-11.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-24.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-15.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-4.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-4.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-25.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-17.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-6.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (7.9 percent)
Eurodollar (10.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (12.0 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,053,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,055,535 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	68.9	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	47.5	8.7
– Net Position:	-1,053,852	1,265,098	-211,246
– Gross Longs:	452,273	4,061,161	299,890
– Gross Shorts:	1,506,125	2,796,063	511,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.8	63.8	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.9	-12.1	19.6

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -86,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 26,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -112,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	74.7	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	68.3	3.0
– Net Position:	-86,235	105,583	-19,348
– Gross Longs:	167,385	1,229,497	30,086
– Gross Shorts:	253,620	1,123,914	49,434
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	72.7	11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	2.2	-30.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -462,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,620 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -456,051 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	81.7	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	62.4	8.3
– Net Position:	-462,671	452,042	10,629
– Gross Longs:	179,898	1,909,141	204,038
– Gross Shorts:	642,569	1,457,099	193,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.3	79.0	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.7	-11.8	2.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -680,655 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -57,504 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -623,151 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.3	85.1	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	68.5	8.4
– Net Position:	-680,655	689,573	-8,918
– Gross Longs:	220,650	3,538,627	341,784
– Gross Shorts:	901,305	2,849,054	350,702
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.4	90.4	78.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	-9.1	28.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -545,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -133,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -411,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	80.6	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	65.3	10.7
– Net Position:	-545,057	615,855	-70,798
– Gross Longs:	334,022	3,237,951	360,271
– Gross Shorts:	879,079	2,622,096	431,069
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	95.0	63.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.2	15.8	10.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -126,321 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -28,051 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,270 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	78.4	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	63.5	16.6
– Net Position:	-126,321	224,640	-98,319
– Gross Longs:	155,613	1,178,847	150,997
– Gross Shorts:	281,934	954,207	249,316
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.9	61.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	9.0	-10.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -192,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -35,008 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -157,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.2	81.3	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	67.4	12.3
– Net Position:	-192,393	170,932	21,461
– Gross Longs:	51,842	994,046	171,647
– Gross Shorts:	244,235	823,114	150,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	71.6	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.1	28.6	-2.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -385,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -371,406 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.5	83.7	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	59.7	8.4
– Net Position:	-385,428	342,092	43,336
– Gross Longs:	64,109	1,193,027	163,472
– Gross Shorts:	449,537	850,935	120,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.0	81.9	67.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	12.9	-8.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

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