InvestMacro

Currency Speculators pull back on Japanese Yen bearish bets to 21-week low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 10th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (11,487 contracts) with the EuroFX (5,067 contracts), Mexican Peso (2,995 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (2,577 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-9,155 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-6,510 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-4,516 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-4,189 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,221 contracts), Bitcoin (-983 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-130 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies data is the recent declines in the Japanese Yen bearish speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for the Yen rose by +11,487 contracts this week and have been higher for the fifth time over the past six weeks. Yen speculator bets have also gained in nine out of the past eleven weeks, going from a total of -102,618 contracts on October 25th to a 21-week bearish low of just -35,377 contracts this week.

The Yen price has been strongly improving in recent trade against the US dollar as the Yen has gained by approximately 16 percent since hitting a multi-decade low in October. The USDJPY currency pair has fallen from around 152.09 in October to trading currently below 128.00 at the close of this week.

Helping the Yen’s trend change course has been the Bank of Japan altering its bond yield policy with the BOJ allowing its bond-band to expand. Also, there has been a decline in the yield differential between Japan and the US since October – aided by a moderation in US inflation data.

Japan minus US 10 year yield differential

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-10-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	42,307	50	16,540	53	-19,280	45	2,740	46
EUR	746,163	88	134,982	76	-182,210	24	47,228	54
GBP	202,713	39	-29,456	44	35,268	58	-5,812	47
JPY	175,745	35	-35,377	47	34,488	52	889	55
CHF	33,266	13	-7,370	35	8,206	59	-836	55
CAD	133,888	19	-30,955	5	27,265	91	3,690	38
AUD	126,028	27	-33,690	54	32,210	43	1,480	56
NZD	27,566	1	7,350	74	-8,499	26	1,149	65
MXN	270,826	82	-53,381	5	47,206	92	6,175	94
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	33,429	18	21,701	69	-23,574	30	1,873	83
Bitcoin	14,891	76	-594	67	-29	0	623	27

Strength Scores led by Euro & New Zealand Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (76 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (69 percent), Bitcoin (67 percent) and the Australian Dollar (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (5 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (35 percent) and the British Pound (44 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (52.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (54.6 percent)
EuroFX (76.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (43.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (51.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (47.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (40.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (35.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (47.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (4.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (53.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (51.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (73.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (74.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (4.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (3.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (76.1 percent)
Bitcoin (66.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (83.7 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (33 percent) and the Japanese Yen (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (18 percent), the Brazilian Real (15 percent) and the Australian Dollar (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-51 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-18 percent), Bitcoin (-16 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-13.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-10.5 percent)
EuroFX (3.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (2.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (6.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (30.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-17.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-18.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (10.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (6.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (33.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (31.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (-50.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-51.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (15.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (20.9 percent)
Bitcoin (-16.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-5.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 16,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,761 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.2	2.7	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.1	48.3	7.2
– Net Position:	16,540	-19,280	2,740
– Gross Longs:	33,928	1,158	5,784
– Gross Shorts:	17,388	20,438	3,044
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.5	45.1	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	14.6	-9.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 134,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 129,915 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.0	53.7	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	78.1	5.9
– Net Position:	134,982	-182,210	47,228
– Gross Longs:	238,623	400,775	91,275
– Gross Shorts:	103,641	582,985	44,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.4	24.3	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-7.8	23.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -29,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,301 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	68.3	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	50.9	14.5
– Net Position:	-29,456	35,268	-5,812
– Gross Longs:	36,007	138,532	23,559
– Gross Shorts:	65,463	103,264	29,371
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.7	58.0	46.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.1	-9.5	13.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -35,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	67.8	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.1	48.2	16.0
– Net Position:	-35,377	34,488	889
– Gross Longs:	26,395	119,166	28,973
– Gross Shorts:	61,772	84,678	28,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	52.5	55.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.7	-23.5	32.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,370 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,516 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,854 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	51.2	37.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.2	26.5	40.2
– Net Position:	-7,370	8,206	-836
– Gross Longs:	3,668	17,034	12,542
– Gross Shorts:	11,038	8,828	13,378
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	58.5	54.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.2	-19.4	16.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -30,955 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,766 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	56.1	24.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.7	35.7	22.1
– Net Position:	-30,955	27,265	3,690
– Gross Longs:	22,166	75,060	33,283
– Gross Shorts:	53,121	47,795	29,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.9	91.4	37.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	11.1	3.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -33,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,267 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	56.9	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.7	31.3	15.1
– Net Position:	-33,690	32,210	1,480
– Gross Longs:	30,210	71,696	20,573
– Gross Shorts:	63,900	39,486	19,093
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.6	42.9	56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-14.0	18.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -130 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,480 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.7	38.2	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	69.0	11.1
– Net Position:	7,350	-8,499	1,149
– Gross Longs:	12,607	10,520	4,206
– Gross Shorts:	5,257	19,019	3,057
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.9	26.5	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.2	-31.0	8.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -53,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,376 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.2	41.3	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.9	23.9	0.9
– Net Position:	-53,381	47,206	6,175
– Gross Longs:	149,517	111,970	8,593
– Gross Shorts:	202,898	64,764	2,418
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	92.5	93.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-50.9	50.0	-2.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 21,701 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.4	12.9	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	83.4	5.0
– Net Position:	21,701	-23,574	1,873
– Gross Longs:	25,210	4,322	3,561
– Gross Shorts:	3,509	27,896	1,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.2	30.4	83.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.1	-14.6	-1.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -983 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 389 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.5	3.0	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.5	3.2	4.8
– Net Position:	-594	-29	623
– Gross Longs:	11,989	447	1,339
– Gross Shorts:	12,583	476	716
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.6	63.1	27.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	36.5	3.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

14 Jan

Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal, WTI Crude Oil lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 10th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position continues to come in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 26.8 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 157,710 net contracts this week with a change of 1,142 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is now at a 79.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 32.5 this week. The speculator position registered 79,994 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 9,505 contracts in speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Euro speculator level resides at a 76.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 3.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 134,982 net contracts this week with a rise of 5,067 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 73.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 33.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 7,350 net contracts this week with a dip of -130 contracts in the speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level sits at a 70.5 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -10.0 this week.

The speculator position was -8,151 net contracts this week with a decline of -9,513 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 205,236 net contracts this week with a drop of -22,371 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.3 this week. The speculator position was -39,716 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,425 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Coffee speculator level resides at a 1.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -14,739 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -13,927 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 3.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.9 this week. The speculator position was -98,270 net contracts this week with a gain of 15,087 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

Finally, the Mexican Peso speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is at a 4.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -50.9 this week. The speculator position was -53,381 net contracts this week with a rise of 2,995 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

14 Jan

Large Metals Speculators boost their Copper bets into bullish territory

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (14,902 contracts) with Gold (8,869 contracts), Palladium (52 contracts) and Platinum (199 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Silver with a drop by -1,921 contracts on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the boost the the Copper positions got this week. The large speculator position in Copper futures rose this week for only the first time in the past four weeks but represented the highest one-week gain of the past 64 weeks, dating back to October of 2019.

Copper speculators pushed the overall position back into bullish territory after a week spent in bearish levels on January 3rd. Copper had been in bearish territory in 29 out of the previous 37 weeks before this week’s gain.

The Copper futures price jumped by over 7 percent this week to around the $4.20 per pound level and the highest weekly close since June. Copper is also up by over 30 percent since hitting a recent low in July of 2022. The opening of China’s economy (after discarding its zero-covid policies) has been a positive development for the price outlook as China is one of the leading countries in both producing and consuming Copper.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-10-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	481,519	16	150,535	33	-172,478	66	21,943	35
Silver	129,961	7	29,013	46	-42,925	55	13,912	40
Copper	186,383	29	10,227	44	-16,253	54	6,026	60
Palladium	8,352	12	-2,490	11	2,337	85	153	51
Platinum	72,216	43	30,702	50	-34,346	53	3,644	17

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (50 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Silver (46 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (11 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Gold (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (32.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (29.7 percent)
Silver (46.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (48.2 percent)
Copper (44.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (32.6 percent)
Platinum (50.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (50.1 percent)
Palladium (11.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.9 percent)

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (13.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (12.7 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-6.2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is the only negative mover over the past six weeks.

Move Statistics:
Gold (13.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (8.5 percent)
Silver (12.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (15.6 percent)
Copper (6.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-6.2 percent)
Platinum (8.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (10.8 percent)
Palladium (-6.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-10.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 150,535 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 141,666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.6	23.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	59.0	5.1
– Net Position:	150,535	-172,478	21,943
– Gross Longs:	243,566	111,718	46,373
– Gross Shorts:	93,031	284,196	24,430
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	65.9	34.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-16.5	32.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 29,013 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,921 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,934 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.7	32.8	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	65.8	7.7
– Net Position:	29,013	-42,925	13,912
– Gross Longs:	56,770	42,599	23,938
– Gross Shorts:	27,757	85,524	10,026
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.1	54.7	39.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.7	-13.2	12.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 10,227 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 14,902 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,675 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	37.4	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.6	46.2	7.3
– Net Position:	10,227	-16,253	6,026
– Gross Longs:	74,753	69,787	19,691
– Gross Shorts:	64,526	86,040	13,665
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.5	54.4	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-10.0	26.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,702 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 199 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,503 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.6	26.5	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	74.0	4.4
– Net Position:	30,702	-34,346	3,644
– Gross Longs:	43,745	19,128	6,832
– Gross Shorts:	13,043	53,474	3,188
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.4	52.7	17.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-7.0	-11.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 52 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,542 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	53.3	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.1	25.3	14.5
– Net Position:	-2,490	2,337	153
– Gross Longs:	2,114	4,452	1,362
– Gross Shorts:	4,604	2,115	1,209
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.3	84.7	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	4.6	12.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

14 Jan

COT Bonds Speculators reduced their 2-Year & 5-Year Bonds bearish bets this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were even this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (65,457 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (29,768 contracts), Ultra 10-Year Bonds (15,087 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (11,873 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Eurodollar (-71,774 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-27,756 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6,512 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-3,929 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT bonds data is this week’s breather in the highly bearish 2-Year and 5-Year speculator positioning.

The 2-Year Bond large speculator positions trimmed their bearish bets for a second straight week and for the sixth time in the past eight weeks. This improvement comes after speculators pushed their positioning to an all-time bearish low of -586,270 contracts on November 15th. Since that record low, speculators have taken off a total of 130,219 contracts from the bearish standing.

The 5-Year Bond speculator positions have also improved recently with four straight weeks of decreasing bearish levels. The 5-Year speculator positions had recently fallen to 216-week low of -691,537 contracts on December 13th which marked the most bearish level since October of 2023. Since then, bets have gained by +68,386 contracts in the past four weeks.

Despite the recent improvements, both the 2-Year and 5-Year speculator levels continue to remain strongly bearish in this rising rate economic environment that also currently has yield curve inversions all over the total US bonds yield curve. However, there is the potential that both recent significant lows (in 2-Year and 5-Year) could be seen as bearish sentiment peaks if inflation data continues to moderate and the US Federal Reserve decides to scale back on their interest rate hikes.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-10-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	6,013,989	1	-1,055,535	34	1,258,804	64	-203,269	60
FedFunds	1,527,145	49	-112,330	26	129,044	76	-16,714	19
2-Year	2,319,897	25	-456,051	19	452,472	79	3,579	54
Long T-Bond	1,184,966	40	-157,385	33	129,734	57	27,651	75
10-Year	3,894,938	57	-411,358	10	488,454	80	-77,096	62
5-Year	4,095,328	57	-623,151	9	657,644	87	-34,493	72

Strength Scores led by Eurodollar & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Eurodollar (34 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (34 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (33 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (4 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (9 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (10 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (19 percent) come in as the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (25.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (26.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (19.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (9.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (8.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (9.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (14.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (3.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (33.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (29.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (33.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (36.3 percent)
Eurodollar (33.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (35.0 percent)

Eurodollar & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (12 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (7 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 10-Year Bonds (-17 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-17 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-12 percent) following next for lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-9.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-14.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (6.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-16.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-17.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-9.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-4.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-2.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-17.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-25.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (7.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (4.9 percent)
Eurodollar (12.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (15.5 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,055,535 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -71,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -983,761 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	69.9	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	48.9	8.5
– Net Position:	-1,055,535	1,258,804	-203,269
– Gross Longs:	450,880	4,201,292	306,594
– Gross Shorts:	1,506,415	2,942,488	509,863
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.7	63.6	59.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-12.3	8.7

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -112,330 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,929 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	76.8	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	68.3	3.1
– Net Position:	-112,330	129,044	-16,714
– Gross Longs:	132,184	1,172,814	31,131
– Gross Shorts:	244,514	1,043,770	47,845
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	75.5	19.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	10.4	-18.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -456,051 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 65,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -521,508 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	80.1	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	60.6	8.4
– Net Position:	-456,051	452,472	3,579
– Gross Longs:	220,701	1,857,300	199,092
– Gross Shorts:	676,752	1,404,828	195,513
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.3	79.1	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.7	-10.1	-2.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -623,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 29,768 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -652,919 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	84.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	68.7	8.8
– Net Position:	-623,151	657,644	-34,493
– Gross Longs:	235,968	3,471,933	326,120
– Gross Shorts:	859,119	2,814,289	360,613
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.7	86.8	71.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	4.4	15.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -411,358 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -383,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	79.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	66.9	11.0
– Net Position:	-411,358	488,454	-77,096
– Gross Longs:	355,989	3,095,025	350,630
– Gross Shorts:	767,347	2,606,571	427,726
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.9	79.9	61.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.4	15.3	-3.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -98,270 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -113,357 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	78.6	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.4	65.3	16.4
– Net Position:	-98,270	193,388	-95,118
– Gross Longs:	153,296	1,138,679	142,921
– Gross Shorts:	251,566	945,291	238,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.9	89.9	63.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	8.7	-9.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -157,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -169,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	79.0	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	68.0	12.3
– Net Position:	-157,385	129,734	27,651
– Gross Longs:	66,962	935,742	173,392
– Gross Shorts:	224,347	806,008	145,741
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	56.9	74.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.4	22.4	-7.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -371,406 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,512 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -364,894 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.5	83.7	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	59.6	9.1
– Net Position:	-371,406	338,409	32,997
– Gross Longs:	63,917	1,176,415	161,277
– Gross Shorts:	435,323	838,006	128,280
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.7	79.1	59.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	3.7	-20.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

14 Jan

Live Cattle leads Soft Commodities Speculator bets while Corn & Sugar bets fall

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Live Cattle & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Live Cattle (9,505 contracts) with Cotton (1,485 contracts) and Soybean Meal (1,142 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-40,779 contracts), Corn (-33,737 contracts), Coffee (-13,927 contracts), Lean Hogs (-17,857 contracts), Soybean Oil (-8,591 contracts), Soybeans (-8,311 contracts), Wheat (-7,425 contracts) and Cocoa (-617 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued gain in the Live Cattle speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Live Cattle gained this week for a third consecutive week and for the sixth time over the past seven weeks. Speculators bets have now pushed the overall net position standing for Live Cattle (currently at +79,994 contracts) to the highest level in the past forty-six weeks, dating back to February 2nd of 2022.

The Live Cattle futures prices have continued to trade in a sustained uptrend with prices closing higher in each of the past seven months. Recently, the Live Cattle futures front month price touched its highest level since 2015 with a high right below the $160 level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-10-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,557,092	14	205,236	0	-225,502	100	20,266	33
Gold	481,519	16	150,535	33	-172,478	66	21,943	35
Silver	129,961	7	29,013	46	-42,925	55	13,912	40
Copper	186,383	29	10,227	44	-16,253	54	6,026	60
Palladium	8,352	12	-2,490	11	2,337	85	153	51
Platinum	72,216	43	30,702	50	-34,346	53	3,644	17
Natural Gas	1,070,386	22	-172,503	27	143,506	76	28,997	49
Brent	140,391	4	-26,209	62	22,463	35	3,746	60
Heating Oil	260,845	20	16,769	67	-35,035	34	18,266	62
Soybeans	620,659	10	140,328	55	-104,166	57	-36,162	10
Corn	1,214,817	4	233,795	60	-182,611	46	-51,184	16
Coffee	210,169	19	-14,739	2	11,310	96	3,429	47
Sugar	905,839	39	187,713	58	-232,509	36	44,796	63
Wheat	334,538	20	-39,716	0	43,529	100	-3,813	91

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Live Cattle (80 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (60 percent), Sugar (58 percent) and Soybeans (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent) and Coffee (2 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Cotton (21 percent) and the Lean Hogs (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (59.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (64.2 percent)
Sugar (58.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (72.5 percent)
Coffee (1.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.7 percent)
Soybeans (54.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (57.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (45.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (51.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (99.4 percent)
Live Cattle (79.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (67.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (27.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (49.3 percent)
Cotton (20.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.8 percent)
Cocoa (43.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (44.4 percent)
Wheat (0.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (7.5 percent)

Live Cattle & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (33 percent) and Soybean Meal (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (17 percent), Cocoa (17 percent) and Sugar (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-12 percent), Wheat (-6 percent) and Corn (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-4.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (2.4 percent)
Sugar (3.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (13.9 percent)
Coffee (-0.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.7 percent)
Soybeans (17.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (25.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-28.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-19.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (26.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (26.8 percent)
Live Cattle (32.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (18.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-11.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-0.1 percent)
Cotton (1.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-1.0 percent)
Cocoa (17.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (12.4 percent)
Wheat (-6.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-4.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 233,795 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -33,737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 267,532 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	46.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	61.2	13.8
– Net Position:	233,795	-182,611	-51,184
– Gross Longs:	332,822	561,153	116,990
– Gross Shorts:	99,027	743,764	168,174
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.9	45.9	15.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	6.9	-8.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 187,713 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -40,779 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 228,492 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	44.1	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	69.8	5.0
– Net Position:	187,713	-232,509	44,796
– Gross Longs:	274,296	399,818	90,034
– Gross Shorts:	86,583	632,327	45,238
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.5	36.5	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-2.8	1.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -812 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	51.8	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	46.4	3.9
– Net Position:	-14,739	11,310	3,429
– Gross Longs:	48,809	108,900	11,598
– Gross Shorts:	63,548	97,590	8,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.7	96.2	47.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	-2.6	34.7

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 140,328 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 148,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	48.7	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.7	65.5	12.8
– Net Position:	140,328	-104,166	-36,162
– Gross Longs:	187,837	302,217	42,977
– Gross Shorts:	47,509	406,383	79,139
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.7	57.0	9.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.0	-13.8	-17.8

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 62,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.5	49.1	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	68.2	6.4
– Net Position:	62,099	-71,356	9,257
– Gross Longs:	91,252	183,263	33,103
– Gross Shorts:	29,153	254,619	23,846
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	55.3	48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.7	28.6	-14.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 157,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 156,568 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	31.9	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.4	76.0	6.3
– Net Position:	157,710	-180,580	22,870
– Gross Longs:	171,785	130,280	48,473
– Gross Shorts:	14,075	310,860	25,603
– Long to Short Ratio:	12.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	51.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.8	-27.4	15.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 79,994 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.0	27.5	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	50.1	12.7
– Net Position:	79,994	-72,962	-7,032
– Gross Longs:	132,029	88,511	33,907
– Gross Shorts:	52,035	161,473	40,939
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.7	13.3	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.5	-28.0	-21.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 25,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,626 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	36.9	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	47.1	13.3
– Net Position:	25,769	-19,358	-6,411
– Gross Longs:	65,146	70,042	18,949
– Gross Shorts:	39,377	89,400	25,360
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.7	73.8	72.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	7.6	21.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	49.6	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	59.5	5.7
– Net Position:	17,944	-19,936	1,992
– Gross Longs:	58,104	99,886	13,474
– Gross Shorts:	40,160	119,822	11,482
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	79.0	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.0	-1.2	2.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 27,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -617 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	44.4	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	54.9	3.2
– Net Position:	27,221	-31,199	3,978
– Gross Longs:	94,218	132,109	13,616
– Gross Shorts:	66,997	163,308	9,638
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	56.6	36.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.3	-17.7	3.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -39,716 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,425 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,291 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	42.1	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.9	29.1	11.2
– Net Position:	-39,716	43,529	-3,813
– Gross Longs:	87,085	140,763	33,599
– Gross Shorts:	126,801	97,234	37,412
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.2	100.0	90.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	7.6	-0.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

14 Jan

Stock Market Speculators nudge up Russell, Dow Jones & push SP500 bets more bearish

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell-Mini & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was Russell-Mini (7,233 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (2,749 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (255 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were S&P500-Mini (-45,873 contracts), Nasdaq-Mini (-9,513 contracts), MSCI EAFE-Mini (-7,413 contracts) and the VIX (-4,807 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-10-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,032,566	3	-213,174	17	202,933	77	10,241	29
Nikkei 225	11,991	4	-2,719	65	2,717	43	2	28
Nasdaq-Mini	253,625	44	-8,151	70	13,928	35	-5,777	41
DowJones-Mini	77,628	39	-9,142	29	12,647	74	-3,505	23
VIX	301,215	34	-72,807	64	79,810	38	-7,003	57
Nikkei 225 Yen	41,161	23	9,085	62	-901	8	-8,184	64

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (70 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (65 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (64 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (17 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the MSCI EAFE-Mini (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (64.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (67.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (16.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (25.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (29.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (25.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (70.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (75.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (34.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (30.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (64.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (27.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.1 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (16 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets and is the only positive mover this week.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-4.5 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-3.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (-3.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-1.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (4.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-4.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-8.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-10.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-0.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-0.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-0.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-3.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-5.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (15.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (26.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -72,807 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	56.7	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	30.2	8.7
– Net Position:	-72,807	79,810	-7,003
– Gross Longs:	50,080	170,766	19,207
– Gross Shorts:	122,887	90,956	26,210
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.1	38.0	57.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	4.3	-5.5

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -213,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly drop by -45,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,301 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	74.4	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	64.5	11.2
– Net Position:	-213,174	202,933	10,241
– Gross Longs:	243,503	1,512,933	236,946
– Gross Shorts:	456,677	1,310,000	226,705
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.7	77.3	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	0.2	1.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -9,142 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,891 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.4	47.8	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.2	31.5	20.4
– Net Position:	-9,142	12,647	-3,505
– Gross Longs:	25,943	37,120	12,296
– Gross Shorts:	35,085	24,473	15,801
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.3	74.4	22.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	-0.3	16.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -8,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,362 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	61.5	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	56.0	15.3
– Net Position:	-8,151	13,928	-5,777
– Gross Longs:	57,068	156,031	32,962
– Gross Shorts:	65,219	142,103	38,739
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.5	35.1	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	8.6	7.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -58,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,361 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	82.7	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	70.1	4.9
– Net Position:	-58,128	54,539	3,589
– Gross Longs:	44,813	357,515	24,756
– Gross Shorts:	102,941	302,976	21,167
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.7	63.9	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	0.9	-3.5

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,974 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	52.2	23.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.7	29.5	23.7
– Net Position:	-2,719	2,717	2
– Gross Longs:	2,886	6,257	2,848
– Gross Shorts:	5,605	3,540	2,846
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.6	43.2	28.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	6.5	-6.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,409 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,413 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.5	91.5	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.3	89.5	1.7
– Net Position:	-13,409	6,968	6,441
– Gross Longs:	15,571	318,983	12,299
– Gross Shorts:	28,980	312,015	5,858
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.2	68.5	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-18.2	18.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

13 Jan

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, SOL, AVAX). Overview for 13.01.2023

By RoboForex.com

The BTC grew to 18,813 USD. Weekly growth amounts to 11.9%.

As long as the market closed the previous session above the resistance level at 18,500 USD, buyers may freely set new goals. Now they may reach 21,500-22,000 USD.

Currently, the BTC correlates with the US stock indices (S&P 500 and Nasdaq) by more than 80%. This means that the anticipated slow-down in increasing the US interest rate is good not only for stocks but for crypto as well.

Is it crypto spring at last?..

Capitalisation of the crypto sector on Friday grew to 904,108 billion USD, the BTC taking up 40.1% already, and the ETH – 19.1%.

Solana activity increased

The SOL sky-rocketed to two-month peaks because the network got active. Transaction volumes and the number of active accounts returned to the highs of the last four months. The number of active addresses amounts to 240 thousand.

BTC is becoming more complex

On 15 January, the BTC network will live through a record increase in complexity of mining. First thing, the hashrate will grow, i.e. more hashes will be needed for mining a BTC block.

AVAX reacted to news about Amazon

The price of the AVAX token grew noticeably after on the Internet they spoke about cooperation of Amazon Web Services (AWS) with Ava Labs. This is meant to implement blockchain technology deeper in enterprises and governments.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

13 Jan

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 13.01.2023 (USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDCHF)

By RoboForex.com

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

On H4, at the support level, the pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern. The pair is now going by the signal in an ascending wave. The goal of the growth might be 1.3455; later the price might break through it and extend correction. However, the price may drop to 1.3300 without any correction at all.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

In H4, at the resistance level, the pair has formed a Handing Man reversal pattern. The pair may now go by the signal in an ascending wave. The goal of the pullback might be 0.6920. After a test of the support level the quotes might get the chance for a bounce off it and an extension of the uptrend. However, the price may grow to 0.7015 without any pullback.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

On H4, at the resistance level, the pair has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern. The pair may now go by the signal in a descending wave. The goal of the decline might be 0.9250. Upon testing the resistance level, the pair might break through it and continue the downtrend. However, the price may pull back to 0.9350 before falling.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

13 Jan

That Major Revaluation of Gold Is Coming

Source: Barry Dawes (1/12/23)

Barry Dawes of Martin Place Securities takes a look at multiple charts in the resource sector to tell you where he believes it is headed.

Key Points

Gold

Gold trades above US$1880.
Not long now before US$1900.
Gold in Euros, Yen, and Pounds looking to move up sharply
Could we see new all-time highs above US$2100 VERY early in 2023?
Gold has started Wave 3

Gold Stocks

XAU over 132
135 very soon
165, not far away.
ASX gold stocks breaking out

Copper

Breaking out above US$4/lb
Exceeding that LT resistance at US$4/lb
NO INVENTORY!
- Copper back to 2022 inventory level lows
- Zinc LME inventories down by 87% in past year
Got DVP?
- Its got Copper
- And Zinc!

Bonds

Yields down again
Prices rally

DVP Copper and Zinc

Woodlawn
Sulphur Springs
Mining contracting
Market cap ~A$750m @ A$3.40 on 220m shares (diluted)

ICL – Extraordinary WA Explorer

8 major targets
14 >1000m geochem anomalies
Gold nuggets confirm nearby sources
Market cap A$ 24m @ A$0.115 on 208m shares

TBN – Extraordinary NT Gas Developer

Amungee AH2 horizontal well completed
Fraccing to commence after current wet period
Market cap A$ 353m @ A$0.25 on 1,416m shares

Gold

Gold traded higher through US$1880 and held US$1870.

US$1870 is important long term resistance should now be support. US$1900 is now very close so could be much higher over the next few weeks.

Gold Stocks

135 resistance is only 2% away. And it should not last long before gold stocks overcome it and head straight for 165.

Bonds

Yields decline further.
Bond rally to continue for a while yet.

ASX Gold Stocks Looking GoodASX Gold’s index is breaking.

Copper

breaks out above US$4/lb

US$4/lb is important Long Term resistance. Breaking that brings much higher prices.

NO LME INVENTORY!

Index at another 12 month low
Copper near 12 month low
Zinc down 88%!!!!

Zinc is about to break out.

Got DVP?

Woodlawn
Sulphur Springs
Mining contracting
Market cap ~A$750m @ A$3.40 on 220m shares (diluted)
Copper and Zinc!!

ICL Extraordinary Explorer

14 Mile Well Project – west of Laverton
In elephant country
Highlighting Celia Fault
- Castlemaine and Guyer Fault splays
Numerous CSIRO UFF+ geochem anomalies
Nuggets in paleochannels confirming gold potential.
Syenite intrusions as gold conduits and hosts
Yet another target found at Goose Well
Market cap A$ 24m @ A$0.115 on 208m shares

14 Mile Well Project – On West Side of Celia Fault

An early stage explorer with a difference

Economic gold deposits will be found!

- >800km²almost previously unexplored

Eight major target areas . . . and counting.

14 geochem anomalies identified using CSIRO UFF+ technology. All over 1000m – up to 5000m.

Syenite intrusions (host of several nearby major gold deposits/mines) identified on tenements.

Most Advanced Projects

Everleigh Well
Guyer

Drilling has confirmed gold presence. Numerous nuggets in paleochannels.

ICL

This is developing into something special

Downward sloping wedge
Break out
Backtest
Surging

TBN – Tamboran Resources

Development of Beetaloo Basin

Amungee 2H drilling complete
- 2413m vertical depth
- 1275m horizontal section
Drilling completed in December in 38 days and under budgeted cost and time
5 1/2 inch casing will allow higher sand and fluid input rates and higher gas outflow volumes
24 stages planned for fraccing
Awaiting weather clearing to mobilize fraccing fleet in March Qtr
5TCF 2P reserves targeted for 2025 worth A$6bn
Market cap A$ 353m @ A$0.25 on 1,416m shares

TBN has successfully drilled its two operated wells much faster than Santos and Origin. Faster wells are cheaper wells (daily rig rate cost)

5 1/2 inch casing will allow higher sand and fluid input rates and higher gas outflow volumes

- 5 1/2 inch casing has a 22% larger diameter than 4 1/2 inch but has a 50% higher diameter area.

Net Undiscovered Prospective Resources 116TCF

TBN – Also Developing into Something Special

Downward sloping wedge
Break out
Backtest
Moving higher

Opportunity is knocking. Timing is everything.

Disclosures:

1) Barry Dawes: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of the following companies mentioned in this article: None. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: My company, has a consulting relationship with: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with: None. Please click here for more information.

3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.

4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

Metals Opinions

13 Jan

Week Ahead: USDJPY set for wild Wednesday

By ForexTime

The Japanese Yen has been the best-performing G10 currency versus the US dollar since end-October.

And there’s certainly been a lot of interest for JPY late, considering how our Dec 20th report was FXTM’s most-read article for all of 2022 (“Why is the Japanese Yen soaring?”).

The Japanese Yen could be set for more near-term gains …

as the Bank of Japan holds its policy meeting amidst these other economic data releases and events in the days ahead:

Monday, January 16

AUD: Australia December inflation gauge
World Economic Forum begins in Davos – attended by central bank heads, finance ministers, and global business leaders
US markets closed

Tuesday, January 17

AUD: Australia January consumer confidence
CNH: China 4Q GDP; December industrial production, retail sales, jobless rate
EUR: Germany January ZEW survey
GBP: UK November unemployment rate, December jobless claims
CAD: Canada December inflation
USD: New York Fed President John Williams speech
S&P 500: Q4 earnings by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, United Airlines

Wednesday, January 18

JPY: Bank of Japan rate decision
EUR: Eurozone December CPI (final)
GBP: UK December CPI
USD: US December retail sales, industrial production, Fed Beige Book
USD: Fed Speak – speeches by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker

Thursday, January 19

JPY: Japan December external trade
AUD: Australia January consumer inflation expectations; December unemployment
NOK: Central Bank of Norway’s rate decision
EUR: ECB publishes December meeting minutes; ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks at Davos
USD: US weekly initial jobless claims; Fed Speak – speeches by Boston Fed President Susan Collins, New York Fed President John Williams

Friday, January 20

JPY: Japan December CPI
CNH: China loan prime rates
EUR: Germany December PPI
GBP: UK December retail sales

USDJPY has been dropping on expectations for an eventual BoJ rate hike.

To be clear, markets are only forecasting a mere 38% chance that we could see a Bank of Japan rate hike on Wednesday, January 18th.

But recall that markets are forward-looking in nature; today’s prices reflect tomorrow’s expectations.

And markets currently fully expect the BoJ to finally see a rate liftoff in April, under the helm of the central bank’s new incoming governor.

If so, Japan can finally exit its negative interest rates regime, having kept its benchmark rate at negative 0.1% since 2016.

Also, here’s a recap of recent events that have spurred the surge for the Japanese Yen:

December 20: BoJ policy shocker
The BoJ unexpectedly allowed Japanese 10-year yields to reach a limit of 0.50% – which is double the prior ceiling of 0.25%.
January 12: Yomiuru report
The Japanese national newspaper claimed that BoJ officials will, over the coming week, “review the side-effects” of its ultra-loose policy stance.
January 13: Yields cap breached
Recall the new 0.5% cap for Japan’s 10-year yields? That level was breached today, forcing the Bank of Japan to make unscheduled bond purchases to try and reinforce the cap (more bond buying, lower yields)

These events have prompted markets to believe that more policy tightening is on the cards for 2023.
And such hopes have translated into JPY gains.

Week Ahead: Potential scenarios for USDJPY

With all that in mind …

if current BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda pushes back against the market’s expectations for a rate hike this year, that may prompt the Japanese Yen to unwind some of its recent gains and potentially pull USDJPY back above the psychologically-important 130 mark.
On the other hand, should markets detect the slightest of hawkish hints (BoJ is getting closer to a rate hike) out of Governor Kuroda next week, that should move USDJPY closer towards 126.0 and potentially test the lower downtrend line that began in November.
And if the Yomiuru report proves true, AND the BoJ’s review does show that side-effects of its ultra-loose policy settings are proving harder to contain, suggesting a faster-than-expected exit from negative interest rates, that may translate into further JPY gains as well.

At the time of writing, market forecasts are currently giving a slight edge that we’ll see USDJPY back at 130 over the next one-week period, with such odds being placed at 70%, compared to the 65% chance that we’ll see USDJPY touch 127.0.

But wait, there’s more!

Also look out for these other two potential catalysts that could move USDJPY over the coming week:

December 20: Japan inflation data

Japan’s national consumer price index (CPI) – which measures headline inflation – is forecasted to come in at 4%.

If so, that would be the fastest inflation since January 1991!

Rising inflationary pressures might prompt the BoJ to follow in the footsteps of its major central banking peers who have been aggressively hiking their own interest rates last year in a bid to quell red-hot inflation.

Hence, a higher-than-expected CPI out of Japan next week may reinforce bets for a BoJ rate hike in 2023, likely translating into further gains for the Japanese Yen.

Fed Speak in the coming week

The USD side of USDJPY could be moved by any policy clues contained within scheduled speeches by officials of the US central bank – the Federal Reserve a.k.a. the Fed.

Markets expect the Fed to hike by just 25 basis points at its next policy decision due on February 1st, which is a far cry from the supersized 75-bps hikes that we saw four times last year.

It’ll be interesting to get these Fed officials’ takes on the slowdown in the US headline CPI that we just received yesterday (6.5% CPI for December; much lower than June’s 9.1%).

If these Fed officials fuel expectations that the slowdown in US inflation in turn allows the Fed to ease up on its rate hikes, that could translate into more Dollar weakness and further declines for USDJPY.

After all, the US dollar has been weakening since late September on the notion that the worst of the Fed rate hikes are now behind us.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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