17 Nov

Real Estate Co. Shares News We’ve Been Waiting For

Source: Ron Struthers  (11/16/23)

Recently, Greenbriar Capital Corp. shared news that has Ron Struthers of Struthers Resource Stock Report giving it a Strong Buy rating.

Greenbriar Capital TSXV:GRB OTC:GEBRF Recent Price – $1.11 Entry Price – $1.15 Opinion – Strong Buy

Greenbriar Capital Corp. (GRB:TSX.V; GEBRF:OTC) announced that their 995-home sustainable entry-level residential subdivision, Sage Ranch in California, has received Planning Commission approval for the Precise Development Plan (“PDP”) at the November 13, 2023 Planning Commission meeting.

Wow! This is huge news we have been waiting for. Just consider it lucky that this development was not in Canada because it would have probably taken another two years to get approved. Construction will soon start, and Greenbriar will sell around 140+ plus homes per year for about six years. I can give a more solid revenue projection when we see what the first homes sell for, but some simple round numbers of $100,000 profit per home on 140 homes is US$14 million per year revenue.

Greenbriar only has 35 million shares out, so a measly $39 million market cap.

Jeff Ciachurski CEO of Greenbriar, says: “The City has requested our team meet with the city staff within the next day or two to get everyone moving forward to obtain the necessary construction permits. Sage Ranch was purchased by the company 12 years ago, and today marks a huge milestone to have a 995-home project approved in the State of California. We congratulate city staff, the Planning Commission, the City Council, and our Greenbriar engineering, building, and architectural teams for this gold medal effort.”

From an environmental standpoint, Sage Ranch will be a low-carbon showcase. Nowhere in the subdivision will any resident be more than a short three (3) block walk to either elementary, middle, or high schools. Match this with State-mandated solar roofs, smart meters, optional battery storage and EV charging, smart appliances, and energy-efficient building techniques; Sage Ranch amounts to an exceptional model of environmental planning and carbon reduction.

Greenbriar is also named as one of the top performers on the TSXV Venture Exchange. The 2023 TSX Venture 50 celebrates the strongest performances on the TSXV over the last year.

The Top 50 ranking is selected from 1,713 TSXV public companies. It is great the stock is among the top, but in reality, GRB stock is about even on the year or down a bit, proving how bad the TSXV has been.

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Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of: Greenbriar Capital Corp.
  2. Ron Struthers: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: Greenbriar Capital. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  3. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  4.  This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Struthers Resource Stock Report Disclosures

All forecasts and recommendations are based on opinion. Markets change direction with consensus beliefs, which may change at any time and without notice. The author/publisher of this publication has taken every precaution to provide the most accurate information possible. The information & data were obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but because the information & data source are beyond the author’s control, no representation or guarantee is made that it is complete or accurate. The reader accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. Because of the ever-changing nature of information & statistics the author/publisher strongly encourages the reader to communicate directly with the company and/or with their personal investment adviser to obtain up to date information. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The author/publisher may or may not have a position in the securities and/or options relating thereto, & may make purchases and/or sales of these securities relating thereto from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Neither the information, nor opinions expressed, shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, futures or options contract mentioned herein. The author/publisher of this letter is not a qualified financial adviser & is not acting as such in this publication.

Financial News Real Estate
17 Nov

Oil prices fell to a 4-month low. China’s economy shows signs of recovery

By JustMarkets

US stock indices traded flat yesterday amid disappointing corporate earnings results. Cisco Systems (CSCO) fell by 11%, sending technology stocks tumbling after cutting its full-year earnings forecast. Also down more than 7% were shares of retailer Walmart (WMT) after it struck a cautious tone on the outlook for US shoppers. In addition, a more than 3% drop in the price of WTI crude oil to a near four-month low pressured energy stocks. At the stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down by 0.13%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) jumped by 0.12%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) is up by 0.07%.

US weekly jobless claims rose by 32,000 to a two-year high of 1.865 million, indicating a weak labor market versus expectations of 1.843 million. Additionally, October manufacturing production fell by 0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.4% m/m and the largest decline in 4 months.

The US Senate voted 87-11 on Wednesday night to pass a temporary funding measure to avert a government shutdown. President Biden will now sign the bill into law. The measure would fund some parts of the government through January 19 and others through February 2.

Equity markets in Europe traded all without any momentum. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.24%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.57% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.28%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 1.01%.

Crude oil and gasoline prices fell sharply on Thursday, with crude oil falling to a 4-month low and gasoline falling to an 11-month low. Crude oil prices weathered Wednesday’s negative impact when the EIA reported that weekly crude inventories rose more than expected. Additionally, crude oil funds saw selling on Thursday as weaker-than-expected global economic news weighs on the energy demand outlook.

Natural gas prices declined on Thursday after the EIA’s weekly natural gas inventories rose more than expected. Natural gas inventories rose 60 Bcf last week, above expectations of 42 bcf and well above the 5-year average of 20 bcf.

Asian markets were mostly falling yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 0.28% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.79%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.36% for the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative by 0.67% for Thursday.

Yesterday, Australian employment data for October was released, which showed a good result: plus 55k jobs vs. 22.8k expected, while the unemployment rate rose from 3.6% to 3.7%, in line with expectations. AUD/USD reaction was subdued as markets remain convinced that the RBA has peaked on interest rates.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the only major central bank in the world to maintain negative interest rates and has yet to show any signs of abandoning unprecedented easing measures. Moreover, Wednesday’s dismal GDP report, which showed that the economy contracted for the first time in three quarters, should allow the BoJ to postpone any policy changes, retreating from its ambitious monetary easing course. This, in turn, could undermine the Japanese yen (JPY) and contribute to a new rise in USD/JPY quotes.

Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Wednesday that retail sales of consumer goods, a key indicator of consumption growth, rose 7.6% year-on-year in October, the fastest pace since May and accelerating from the 5.5% growth recorded in September. Industrial production also beat market expectations, rising at a 4.6% annualized rate in October, accelerating from September’s 4.5% increase. This growth was also the strongest since April. Employment remained broadly stable, with the unemployment rate at 5% in October, unchanged from September. Considering the main economic indicators, the economy has maintained a steady recovery momentum and has laid a solid foundation for achieving full-year growth targets.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,508.26 +5.38 (+0.12%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,945.60 −45.61 (−0.13%)

DAX (DE40)  15,786.61 +38.44 (+0.24%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,410.97 −75.94 (−1.01%)

USD Index  104.42 +0.02 (+0.02%)

News feed for 2023.11.17:
  • – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Switzerland Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 09:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Daly Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
17 Nov

Week Ahead: More pain ahead for oil?

By ForexTime 

  • Oil tumbles into bear market on demand fears
  • Keep eye on incoming EIA report and US data
  • Oil slump throws OPEC+ into spotlight
  • Bears in power but RSI oversold
  • Key levels of interest at $75.30, $72.50 and $70

Despite the holiday-shortened week ahead in the United States, financial markets could see some action thanks to top-tier economic releases across the globe.

Monday, 20th November   

  • CNH: China loan prime rates
  • GBP: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey
  • USD: Conference Board leading index

Tuesday, 21st November 

  • CAD: Canada CPI
  • EUR: Eurozone new car registrations
  • NZD: New Zealand trade
  • USD: US FOMC minutes, existing home sales
  • NQ100_m: Nvidia earnings

Wednesday, 22nd November

  • EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
  • GBP: UK government’s Autumn Statement
  • USD: US initial jobless claims, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Thursday, 23rd November  

  • EUR: Eurozone/Germany S&P Global PMIs
  • GBP: UK S&P Global /CIPS Manufacturing PMI
  • US Markets closed – Thanksgiving holiday

Friday, 24th November

  • CAD: Canada retail sales
  • EUR: Germany IFO business climate, GDP
  • JPY: Japan CPI
  • USD: S&P Global manufacturing PMI
  • US markets close early – 1:00 pm ET

Sunday, 26th November

  • OPEC+ meeting

Our focus falls on crude oil which has collapsed into a bear market. 

The global commodity is under intense pressure, heading for its fourth straight week of declines.

Note: A bear market happens when an instrument drops by 20% or more from its most recent high.

The pain started mid-week as swelling US inventories fuelled demand-side fears with disappointing economic data from the largest economy in the world exciting oil bears further.

Before the hefty 4.7% selloff this week, oil prices were already being pressured by weak data from China and easing fears over the Israel-Hamas conflict disrupting supply from the region.

With the path of least resistance for oil pointing south, further losses could be on the cards.

Here are 4 key factors that may influence oil in the week ahead:

  1. US Energy Information Agency (EIA) report

It is worth noting that markets received 2 weeks of data from the EIA due to a planned system upgrade.

Crude oil inventories expanded for a fourth week, rising by 3.6 million barrels in the week ended November 10. This was followed by a huge 13.9 million-barrel build in the previous period.

The next EIA report published on Wednesday 22nd November may shape oil’s short to medium-term outlook.

  • Another build in US crude inventories may further darken the demand outlook, dragging the global commodity lower as a result.
  • A decline in US inventories could soothe fears around waning oil demand, potentially limiting downside pressures on crude.

  1. FOMC minutes + US data 

Much has changed since the Federal Reserve policy meeting on the 1st of November with the soft US inflation report extinguishing any remaining bets around the Fed hiking rates.

Nevertheless, the Fed minutes could offer additional insight into what Fed officials thought about the US economic outlook. On the data front, there will be some key economic releases including the US initial jobless claims, university of Michigan consumer sentiment, and manufacturing PMI which could trigger dollar volatility.

  • Should the minutes strike a cautious note and overall US economic data disappoint, this could feed fears around waning demand – dragging oil prices lower.
  • While a positive set of US economic data may quell fears around the demand outlook and supporting oil – a stronger dollar could limit upside gains.

  1. Anticipation ahead of OPEC+ meeting 

Note: the full impacts of what is decided during the OPEC+ meeting will not be reflected until Monday 27th November. However, the growing anticipation could influence oil prices ahead of this major event.

Oil prices are trading at their lowest levels since July ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday 26th November.

The latest selloff in oil prices has added more focus to the upcoming meeting, opening the doors for greater supply cuts as the cartel continues its quest to rebalance markets. It is worth keeping in mind that OPEC+ has been cutting production since late 2022 with a broader deal to limit supply throughout 2024.

Markets already expect the extension of production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia into the early parts of 2024. So, the cartel may need to offer something new to revive oil bulls.

  • Oil prices could be thrown a lifeline if the cartel moves ahead with deeper supply cuts.

  1. Technical forces 

Prices are under intense pressure on the daily charts with crude respecting a bearish channel. There have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while the MACD trades to the downside. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flirting near 30, indicating that crude may be oversold. While this has the potential to trigger a technical rebound, the scales of power remain in favour of bears.

  • A solid daily close below $74 could send prices back towards $72.50 and $70, respectively.
  • Should prices push back above $75.30, this could open the doors towards the 200-day SMA at $78 and $79.80.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Energy Opinions
17 Nov
container-ship

Fresh water is a hidden challenge − and opportunity − for global supply chains

By Dustin Cole, Auburn University 

Reports of lengthy shipping delays for vessels traveling through the Panama Canal this year have highlighted the critical but often overlooked role that fresh water plays across global supply chains. Drier than normal conditions in Panama, brought on by El Niño, have left the region drought-stricken and water levels in the locks that feed the canal lower than normal. This has led to fewer ships being able to pass through the canal each day: only 31 ships currently, compared with 36 to 38 under normal conditions. This means longer waits to move products through the canal and onto store shelves.

The slowdown at the Panama Canal shows how access to fresh water is key to the way goods are made and shipped, affecting everything from the price of groceries to retail forecasts for the upcoming holiday shopping season. As a professor of supply chain management, I think businesses would be wise to pay closer attention to this issue.

But first, you might ask: What does fresh water have to do with ocean freight? Plenty, it turns out.

Water, water everywhere, and not enough to share

The Panama Canal is a freshwater connection between two oceans – not a saltwater link, as one might assume. A series of locks on each side of the canal raise cargo freighters nearly 100 feet to human-made lakes that extend across Panama’s isthmus and lower them down to sea level on the other side.

Each crossing by a ship requires 52 million gallons of fresh water from lakes, rivers and streams across this small country. This creates a trade-off between preserving water for local needs and using it to allow ships to traverse the canal. Less water allocated to the canal means fewer ships can pass through.

This isn’t an isolated phenomenon. Periodic low water levels in the Mississippi River and the Rhine River in Germany have impeded barge traffic for years, disrupting supply chains while stoking debate about how to divide limited amounts of fresh water. Recent plans by communities in northern Colorado to build their own reservoirs on tributaries of the Colorado River highlight questions about who owns access to local waterways and how this resource is governed.

An ancient challenge

The need to manage water resources isn’t new, with complex water management systems dating back to the Roman Empire and even earlier. Humankind has made great progress on water management over the centuries, but in recent years the issue has often taken a back seat to other pressing environmental concerns such as global warming.

Water management is complicated by the fact that businesses and communities sometimes find themselves in conflict: Businesses want to use water for their operations, while communities want to preserve water supplies to ensure that residents’ basic needs are met. At the same time, communities also need the jobs and services that businesses provide. Examples such as the Panama Canal highlight this tension.

Balancing these seemingly contrary needs calls for a deeper look into how much water is used in the making of products people buy and use every day.

As my colleagues and I show in a recent journal article, water is an important component of almost everything people buy. For example, roughly 2,600 gallons of water goes into making the fabric for a single pair of jeans. From growing cotton for the fibers needed to manufacturing the denim and getting those jeans onto shelves at The Gap, more and more water is embedded into each pair as it moves through the supply chain.

Essentially, businesses use water to transport water embedded in virtually all products they sell. This is why businesses have more than purely altruistic reasons to address water-related problems: It isn’t just good for society but also their own operations. A lack of water can hamper production and disrupt the supply chains that businesses rely on.

Inside the world’s largest cargo shipping bottleneck. | WSJ.

Solutions for businesses

There are a number of ways in which businesses can improve their water management to reduce their own consumption – and costs – while limiting their exposure to water risks.

First, companies should realize that not everything requires clean water. Wastewater from one process can be used for another that doesn’t require clean water. Similarly, not every process pollutes water, so reuse is easy for wastewater resulting from those processes, such as water used for cooling.

Second, firms can share wastewater between facilities for reuse, a concept called industrial ecology. For example, nutrient-rich water from food production can be used for farm irrigation rather than being discharged.

And third, since water is an excellent medium for heat transfer, rather than trying to cool one area and heat another, companies can connect the systems. For example, global aluminum giant Novelis is deploying hot water used in the casting process at one of its plants in Europe to heat a neighboring building.

Opportunities abound for improving management of fresh water – one of our most precious resources. While stronger government regulations and expanded reporting requirements will help, decisions by businesses themselves can move that needle even more.

For those who do, their standing in the communities in which they operate will surely benefit – as will their bottom lines.The Conversation

About the Author:

Dustin Cole, Assistant Professor of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
16 Nov

Murrey Math Lines 16.11.2023 (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has broken the 200-day Moving Average on H4, indicating a possible development of a downtrend. However, the RSI is already in the oversold area. As a result, the quotes are expected to rise above 2/8 (0.8911), reaching the resistance level of 3/8 (0.8977). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakout of 1/8 (0.8850). In this case, the pair might drop to the support at 0/8 (0.8789).

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, a breakout of the upper boundary of the VoltyChannel could increase the probability of a price rise.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on H4, revealing the prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI has broken the resistance line. In this case, the quotes are expected to rise above 7/8 (1968.75), followed by a rise to the resistance level of 8/8 (2000.00). The scenario might be cancelled by a downward breakout of 6/8 (1937.50), which could lead to a trend reversal and a decline to the support at 5/8 (1906.25).

XAUUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, a breakout of the upper boundary of the VoltyChannel could increase the probability of a further price rise.

XAUUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
16 Nov

Massachusetts Biotech Advances Novel Cytokine Therapies

Source: Dr. Robert Driscoll  (11/15/23)

Wedbush sees over 300% upside for Werewolf stock based on early clinical success for its PREDATOR platform and pipeline, according to a WedBush research note.

Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Werewolf Therapeutics Inc. (HOWL:NASDAQ) reported Q3 2023 results and progress for its pipeline of INDUKINE product candidates, noted Wedbush analyst Dr. Robert Driscoll in a November 15 research report.

The analysts have an Outperform rating and US$9 price target on Werewolf Therapeutics.

Early Efficacy Signals Seen for Lead Candidate

According to the analysts, Werewolf’s WTX-124 INDUKINE therapy has shown initial proof-of-concept with a differentiated safety profile compared to standard high-dose IL-2 and evidence of antitumor activity in early studies.

At the 12 mg dose, WTX-124 yielded a partial response in a melanoma patient and disease control in lung cancer patients. The company is now testing an 18 mg dose cohort.

The analysts believe this data validates Werewolf’s novel INDUKINE approach to conditionally activating cytokines within tumors while limiting systemic toxicity.

Advancing Broad Pipeline

Beyond WTX-124, Werewolf is evaluating the second INDUKINE candidate, WTX-330, in dose escalation and plans to share preclinical data on WTX-518 in 2024.

The company is also progressing IL-21 INDUKINE WTX-712 towards the clinic based on encouraging preclinical results.

Significant Upside from Current Levels

Wedbush maintains an Outperform rating on Werewolf Therapeutics and a US$9 price target, seeing over 300% upside for the shares.

The firm’s valuation is based on projected 2031 sales for WTX-124 applied to standard revenue multiples.

In summary, the analysts see Werewolf’s INDUKINE platform and early WTX-124 efficacy as validating the company’s novel approach to cytokine therapies in oncology. With multiple clinical catalysts upcoming, they view the risk/reward as favorable.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
  2. This article does not constitute medical advice. Officers, employees and contributors to Streetwise Reports are not licensed medical professionals. Readers should always contact their healthcare professionals for medical advice.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Disclosures for Wedbush, Werewolf Therapeutics, November 15, 2023

 

Analyst Certification We, Robert Driscoll, Ritika Das and Sam Ravina, certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal opinions and that we have not and will not, directly or indirectly, receive compensation or other payments in connection with our specific recommendations or views contained in this report.

Company Specific Disclosures This information is subject to change at any time. 1. WS makes a market in the securities of Werewolf Therapeutics.

OTHER DISCLOSURES The information herein is based on sources that we consider reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The information contained herein is not a representation by this corporation, nor is any recommendation made herein based on any privileged information. This information is not intended to be nor should it be relied upon as a complete record or analysis: neither is it an offer nor a solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security mentioned herein. This firm, Wedbush Securities, its officers, employees, and members of their families, or any one or more of them, and its discretionary and advisory accounts, may have a position in any security discussed herein or in related securities and may make, from time to time, purchases or sales thereof in the open market or otherwise. The information and expressions of opinion contained herein are subject to change without further notice. The herein mentioned securities may be sold to or bought from customers on a principal basis by this firm. Additional information with respect to the information contained herein may be obtained upon request. Wedbush Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see pages 3–7 of this report for analyst certification and important disclosure information. Retail Investors The information provided is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individual recommendation or personalized investment advice. The companies/investments mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review their own respective situation(s) before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice due to shifting market(s), economic or political conditions. Investment involves risks including the risk of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

Financial News Healthcare Stock Market News
16 Nov

SPX500_m bulls eye key resistance level

By ForexTime 

  • SPX500_m up 2% so far this week
  • Incoming US data and Fed speeches could trigger volatility
  • Prices firmly bullish on D1 timeframe but RSI overbought ​​​​​​​
  • Key resistance level found at 4525 ​​​​​​​
  • Possible breakout on horizon

The SPX500_m has gained 2% so far this week thanks to growing investor optimism around the era of Fed hikes coming to an end.

The cooler-than-expected US CPI data on Tuesday boosted bets over the Fed done with raising rates. Yesterday’s soft PPI and retail sales report reinforced these expectations with traders currently pricing in a 25 basis-point rate cut by June 2024. 

We could see some more action on the SPX500_m today due to US economic data, speeches by Fed officials, and quarterly earnings from Walmart released before US markets open.

Taking a look at the technical picture, the SPX500_m could be in the process of another breakout or technical throwback. Prices have created a minor range on the H4 charts with the big resistance at 4525 and minor support at 4490.

Looking at the daily timeframe, bulls have been on a roll over the past few days with the SPX500_m rallying over 7% since the start of November. However, bulls are currently eyeing a significant resistance level at 4525.

Note: the last time prices secured a daily close above this point was at the start of August 2023.

There is a similar theme on the weekly charts with the powerful rebound at the start of November providing a foundation for bulls to test new highs. Beyond 4525, the next resistance can be found at 4600 – near the 2023 high.

Zooming out to the monthly, bulls seem to be regaining momentum with a solid monthly close back above 4600 opening the doors to the all-time high created at the start of 2022.

Placing our focus back on the daily timeframe, it’s all about the 4525 level.

Prices are trading well above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA however the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals that prices are overbought.

  • A strong daily close above 4525 could trigger a move towards 4600.

  • Should prices remain trapped below 4525, prices may decline back towards 4470 and 4410 – where the 100-day SMA resides.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News
15 Nov

Japan’s GDP contracted in the third quarter. The UK has seen inflation fall sharply

By JustMarkets

Stocks rose sharply on Tuesday and bond yields were down after US consumer prices fell more than expected in October, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain its pause. As of Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 1.43%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) jumped 1.91%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.37%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (US500) and Dow Jones (US30) indices hit two-month highs, while the Nasdaq (US100) index hit a 3-month-high.

October US CPI declined to 3.2% y/y from 3.7% y/y in September, which was better than expectations of 3.3% y/y. In addition, the core CPI excluding food and energy declined to 4.0% y/y from 4.1% y/y in September, which was better than expected and the smallest increase in two years.

Comments from FRB President Richmond Barkin indicated that he favors maintaining a pause in Fed rate hikes when he stated that the impact of rate hikes may be delayed, but with rates capped, the Fed has time to monitor the economy.

A negative factor for stocks continues to be a possible US government shutdown. The US lawmakers have until Friday evening to pass a temporary spending bill before funding runs out and the government shuts down.

Equity markets in Europe rose steadily on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.76%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 1.39% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 1.72%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 0.20%.

Good news for the Bank of England: services inflation fell even more than expected. Services inflation came in below the Bank of England’s October forecast and that pretty much rules out further rate tightening this year. Last year’s 25% rise in household energy tariffs disappeared from annual comparisons, and electricity/gas prices fell by 7% in October this year. And while that drop was a much smaller factor, food price inflation also slowed significantly. As a result, the core CPI is now at 4.6% y/y, down from 6.7% y/y in September.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up by 0.34% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.02%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.17% for the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.83%.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injected additional funds to support the weak economy. Although the one-year medium-term lending rate (1Y MLF) was left at 2.5%, the Bank of China injected 600 billion yuan (over and above the amount due) to support stimulus spending. Increased funding will support a recovery in activity.

A former senior Japanese financial official said on Wednesday that the weakening yen could be caused not only by the interest rate differential between Japan and the US, but also by structural factors such as the deteriorating fiscal situation. Under such conditions, any currency interventions by the authorities will not help to reverse the situation on the market.

Japan’s gross domestic product contracted by 0.5% in Q3. On an annualized basis, Japan’s economy contracted by 2.1%, well above expectations of a 0.6% contraction and a sharp pullback from the 4.5% growth in the previous quarter. The figure was the first contraction in Japan’s GDP in three quarters and signaled that consumption-driven growth in Japan’s economy may be slowing after booming earlier this year.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,495.70 +84.15 (+1.91%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,827.70 +489.83 (+1.43%)

DAX (DE40)  15,614.43 +269.43 (+1.76%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,440.47 +14.64 (+0.20%)

USD Index  104.08 −1.55 (−1.47%)

News feed for 2023.11.14:
  • – Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • – Australia Wage Price Index (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
15 Nov

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: Gold heading back towards $2000?

By ForexTime 

  • Gold boosted by fundamental forces
  • Technical indicators signal further upside
  • Time for bulls to step into a higher gear?
  • All eyes on key psychological $2000 level

Gold glittered on Wednesday after jumping over 1% in the previous session.

The precious metal drew strength from a weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields following the softer-than-expected US inflation data on Tuesday.

This data has knocked the probability of another Fed hike to almost zero with traders pricing in a 50-basis point rate cut by July 2024, according to Fed Funds futures. 

Given gold’s zero-yielding nature, further gains could be on the cards as expectations rise over the Fed cutting interest rates in 2024. It will be wise to keep a close eye on the incoming US retail sales data among other key reports and speeches by Federal Reserve officials this week which could influence expectations around what the Fed does beyond 2023 – ultimately impacting gold prices.

Focusing on the technical picture, gold could push higher if a daily close above $1968 is achieved.

After rebounding from the 200-day SMA earlier this week, bulls have been armed with the technical and fundamental ammunition to attack the psychological $2000 level once again. 

In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has yet to hit overbought conditions – signaling room for further upside.

On the weekly charts, the trend flipped back in favor of bulls in October after prices breached the bearish channel. However, a solid close above the $2000 resistance is needed for bulls to step into a higher gear.

Taking a brief look at the monthly timeframe, prices remain in a very wide range with key resistance at $2000 and support at $1800. It is worth noting that gold has never secured a monthly close above the psychological $2000 level. Given the solid monthly candle in October and strong fundamental drivers supporting bulls, a significant move could be on the horizon.

Redirecting our attention back to the daily timeframe, bulls look to be in a position of power with all eyes on $2000.

  • A strong daily close above $1968 may open the doors back towards $2000, $2010, and $2018, respectively.

  • Should prices remain capped below $1968, this could trigger a decline back towards $1945 and $1934 – where the 200-day SMA resides.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Metals
14 Nov

US CPI surprisingly cool boosting end of year market rally – what investors should do

By George Prior 

US inflation (CPI) comes in cooler than expected but investors still need to adjust to a ‘higher-for-longer’ interest rate environments, warns CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The warning from Nigel Green of deVere Group comes as the October consumer price index was flat month on month, and up 0.2% when excluding food and energy for the core CPI reading.

He notes: “The surprisingly cool CPI solidifies our expectations that the Federal Reserve is done with hiking rates this year and will hold them steady in December.

“However, we believe there will be a sustained period of slower progress than we’ve seen up to this point against inflation in the flight to get it back to the 2% target. The process is going to be more gradual moving forward.

“Therefore, we except one more hike from the Fed next year to boost that progress a little.”

Furthermore, the deVere CEO also says the US CPI readings support his anticipation of a year-end market rally in 2023.

At the end of October he told the media: “We’re about to see a year-end rally, which investors would not want to miss out on as markets turn bullish on the Fed likely holding rates steady.”

As interest rates are anticipated to remain elevated for an extended period and a year-end market rally is expected, investors must adopt a prudent approach to navigate these evolving financial landscapes.

They should strategically consider sectors that exhibit resilience and potential for sustained growth.

“One such sector to contemplate is tech, given its capacity for continuous innovation and the increasing reliance on digitalization across industries. Technology companies often have robust fundamentals and can adapt to changing economic conditions, making them appealing in a rising interest rate scenario,” says Nigel Green

“Additionally, healthcare is another sector worth attention, as demographic trends, an aging population, and ongoing medical advancements contribute to the sector’s long-term stability. The demand for healthcare services tends to persist regardless of economic cycles, providing a defensive quality for investors.

“Furthermore, the financial sector may benefit from higher interest rates, as it can enhance profit margins for banks and financial institutions. As interest rates rise, these entities often experience improved net interest income, which can positively impact their overall performance.

“Most importantly, as ever, maintaining a diversified portfolio remains crucial.” Reassess your investment goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon to ensure your portfolio aligns with your financial objectives.

He concludes: “We’re in a new investment era. Your investment mix needs to reflect this to build your wealth.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
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