23 Nov

Burgeoning Downtrend in Us Dollar Could Ease Difficulties Facing Emerging Market Economies

Source: McAlinden Research  (11/17/23)

McAlinden Research Partners McAlinden Research shares thoughts on the current state of the U.S. dollar and how this may impact the market.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a 2-month low earlier this week on consumer price inflation data that was softer than expected. A gradual pace of disinflation has taken hold and appears to indicate the Federal Reserve has wrangled inflation for the moment. The slowing pace of growth in the CPI was compounded by outright deflation in producer prices, as well as import and export price data.

These data points have increased the likelihood that the Fed has concluded its spate of rate hikes, reaching a terminal Fed Funds rate of 5.5%. If so, that would fall one hike short of what Fed policymakers projected for 2023 in September’s dot plot. Fed Funds futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) indicate that traders see no further hikes going forward into 2024.

When interest rates rise in the U.S., the higher yields can attract investment capital from investors abroad who exchange assets in non-USD currencies for Dollar-denominated investments. This demand, in turn, raises the value of the Dollar compared to other currencies. In a similar way, if rates are to hold steady or even begin to fall, that can cut the appeal of the Dollar. CME’s FedWatch tool suggests a cut is actually more likely than any further hikes going forward — particularly from May 2024 and beyond.

It was all the way back in our August 2022 Viewpoint, The FX Timebomb , that MRP noted the Dollar was likely on the verge of a downturn, as the Fed was rapidly approaching what we termed “peak hawkishness;” the point at which rate hikes reached their maximum size and frequency. We wagered that, from that point on, the central bank’s rate hike regime would gradually reduce the size of rate hikes from 75bps at their largest to 50bps and then, eventually, just 25bps. Further, these hikes would become less frequent until they ceased altogether — likely the state of affairs we have now reached with just one hike in the past four FOMC meetings. The DXY hit a more than 20-year high north of 114.0 that September, prior to retreating. Though we did witness a rebound in the Dollar from lows under 100.00 earlier this year, it has not gotten anywhere near its 2022 high.

If Dollar strength is indeed set to subside further, that could provide a boon to emerging market (EM) economies. Per a 2023 IMF analysis, a 10.0% USD appreciation, linked to global financial market forces, decreases economic output in emerging economies by -1.9% after one year’s time, and this drag lingers for two and a half years. The international impact of material USD appreciation is felt disproportionately in EM economies, as growth in developed economies only experiences an immediate decline of -0.6% in the wake of 10.0% USD appreciation, and that dent dissipates in a year’s time.

The strong USD battered nearly all international currencies — particularly those in emerging markets — but subsiding rate pressure from the Fed is bolstering expectations for non-USD currencies in the year ahead. A majority of analysts in a November Reuters poll indicated that they expect the Dollar to trade lower by year-end. The rebound in EM currencies is expected to be gradual, but several EM currencies, like the Indian Rupee, Thai Baht, and South Korean Won, were projected to recoup recent losses sustained against the US Dollar by late 2024.

Shares of many publicly traded EM firms could be bolstered by a favorable currency translation effect if the Dollar continues to soften relative to local currencies. An October 2023 outlook report from Lazard Asset Management notes that current earnings growth forecasts show EM earnings growth of 19% in 2024, nearly doubling expectations for developed markets earnings growth at just 10%. Earnings in the U.S. are only expected to expand by 12%, signifying a 7% positive earnings growth spread in favor of EM over U.S. equities.

The most significant impact of a weakening Dollar on emerging markets may be the impact on their debt loads. As of 2019, about two-thirds of external debt in EM economies was denominated in USD. By October 2022, Bank for International Settlements (BIS) data showed that non-financial dollar-denominated debt in emerging economies stood at $4.2 trillion. When the Dollar appreciates in value compared to local currencies in emerging markets, the servicing of USD-denominated debt becomes more costly on a relative basis. However, the opposite case could now take place, with EM debt loads becoming more manageable.

Investors can gain exposure to emerging markets via the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), as well as EM currencies via the WisdomTree Emerging Currency Strategy Fund (CEW). Additionally, exposure to the U.S. Dollar can be gained with either the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) or Invesco’s DB U.S. Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN).

Charts

 

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  2. This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

McAlinden Research Partners Disclosures
This report has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not an offer to buy/sell/endorse or a solicitation of an offer to buy/sell/endorse Interests or any other security or instrument or to participate in any trading or investment strategy. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is made or can be given with respect to the sequence, accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information in this Report. Unless otherwise noted, all information is sourced from public data.
McAlinden Research Partners is a division of Catalpa Capital Advisors, LLC (CCA), a Registered Investment Advisor. References to specific securities, asset classes and financial markets discussed herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. CCA, MRP, employees and direct affiliates of the firm may or may not own any of the securities mentioned in the report at the time of publication.

Forex and Currency News Opinions
22 Nov

The election of Javier Milei and the challenges of an impoverished Argentina

By Matheus de Oliveira Pereira, Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp) 

In December 2001, Argentina experienced one of the most dramatic moments in its history. The collapse of convertibility – the monetary stabilisation plan that established parity between the dollar and the peso – brought tens of thousands of people onto the streets to protest against the government’s confiscation of their money, the “corralito”.

In an already historic moment, then-President Fernando de la Rúa fled the Casa Rosada in a helicopter after resigning, to the disbelief of the demonstrators occupying Plaza de Mayo.

Almost 22 years later, the Argentinian population seems to have finally found a figure who could effectively express the “let them all go” slogan that marked that December.

Javier Milei, a far-right economist and founder of the La Libertad Avanza (LLA) party, was elected president of Argentina by defeating Peronist Sergio Massa in the second round held last Sunday.

The more than ten-point lead between Milei and Massa once again called into question the credibility of the polling institutes, which had been predicting a tight race defined by narrow margins. However, there were signs this picture was wrong since the first round. In the first round of voting in October, the sum of the votes given to Milei and Patrícia Bullrich already exceeded Massa’s vote by around 15%.

Victory in 20 of the country’s 23 provinces

In the end, Milei managed to retain more than 80% of Bullrich’s votes and expanded his electoral base by more than 324,000 votes compared to the right-wing’s performance in the first round. The result was a resounding victory, with Milei beating Massa in 20 of the country’s 23 provinces, as well as the federal capital, Buenos Aires. In traditional anti-Peronist strongholds, such as Mendoza, the difference was over 40%, but Milei won in five of the eight provinces currently governed by Peronism.

Understanding the reasons behind this situation is an endeavour that will last for some years. In a preliminary analysis, the results can be read as the expected end of an atypical electoral cycle in which a society punished by a decade of economic stagnation and various failed stabilisation plans decided to punish the traditional political forces. In other words, faced with the rejection of known formulas, the unknown was embraced.

The striking fact is that this discontent has found its main representative in Javier Milei. Milei is an aggressive figure, visibly unprepared, without firm social foundations and who has become known more for idiosyncrasies than for the defence of a project or a track record in politics.

Extreme and rabid campaigning

Milei ran a campaign in his image and likeness: histrionic, extreme and angry, symbolised by the chainsaw with which he sought – metaphorically, one hopes – to destroy the “caste”, the expression by which he referred to the country’s politicians. To this, he added half a dozen slogans (“dollarisation”, “freedom”, “end the Central Bank”), about which little explanation was given, and built the successful campaign that took him to the Casa Rosada.

Understanding this phenomenon requires consideration of transformations underway in Argentine society, ranging from the changes wrought by communication in the internet age to the advance of job insecurity and the marginalisation of large parts of the population from markets and formal state protection networks.

In this sense, it must be recognised that Milei has shown a greater ability to read the current situation than his opponents. He understood that fatigue with the government would not be represented in gradual formulas, as proposed by the coalition Juntos por el Cambio, and made room for accepting a shock therapy proposal.

In this respect, the proposal to dollarise the economy proved a smart electoral move, as it won over younger voters, who have no memory of the collapse of the 1990s and feel the direct impact of a stagnant economy just as they enter the labour market.

Whilst it is necessary to broaden the effort to understand the roots of this result, it is also necessary to reflect on its implications moving forward.

‘Change needs to be drastic, with no middle ground’

Milei himself seems to be aware that his agenda is less feasible than he made it out to be during the campaign. During his victory speech, Milei made no reference to dollarisation or the abolition of the Central Bank, but he made it clear the path he intends to follow is one of shock therapy. He stated: “The changes we need are drastic. There is no room for gradualism, there is no room for middle ground.”

Implementing this shock agenda represents a politically very complex operation. Passing laws and projects that require a qualified majority will require agreements with sectors of Peronism, but the challenge doesn’t end there. The adoption of shock therapy tends to produce very costly effects in terms of employment and income, which could unleash waves of protests that could jeopardise the country’s already difficult governability.

In this context, Milei’s political sustainability will depend on building a network of support that goes beyond votes in the House and Senate and makes a name for itself on the streets.

Will Milei be restrained?

To what extent Milei will be able to make these articulations without losing his anti-system legitimacy is unknown.

Another open question, and a potentially more serious one, concerns the impact of Milei’s presidency on Argentina’s democratic institutions. At the moment, there seems to be an expectation in the country’s traditional circles that the president-elect will be moderate, restrained by the weight of the office, and that his virulent tone is more a candidate’s speech than an expression of temperament.

However, one of the lessons to be learned from the experiences of Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil is that expectations of moderation are frustrated by far-right politicians. The notion that the Republican Party or the armed forces would contain Trump and Bolsonaro, respectively, was not only wrong, but what we saw was a radicalisation of these actors, who mostly adhered to the authoritarian projects of their leaders.

Authoritarian DNA

To deny the authoritarian DNA of Milei’s project, as the traditional Argentinian right has done, is to close one’s eyes to the obvious in order to avoid facing one’s own contradictions. In the campaign committee, posters with Milei’s face were accompanied by the phrase “the only solution”.

Now, if a figure claims to be the only solution to the country’s problems, all those who oppose that solution automatically become part of the problem.

How the new Argentine president intends to deal with this scenario is something we’ll soon find out, but the clues offered by Milei and Argentine history suggest that the vibrant capacity for mobilisation that distinguishes Argentine society may be more necessary than ever.The Conversation

About the Author:

Matheus de Oliveira Pereira, Pesquisador do INCT – INEU e do GEDES, Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp)

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
22 Nov

What is quantum advantage? A quantum computing scientist explains an approaching milestone marking the arrival of extremely powerful computers

By Daniel Lidar, University of Southern California 

Quantum advantage is the milestone the field of quantum computing is fervently working toward, where a quantum computer can solve problems that are beyond the reach of the most powerful non-quantum, or classical, computers.

Quantum refers to the scale of atoms and molecules where the laws of physics as we experience them break down and a different, counterintuitive set of laws apply. Quantum computers take advantage of these strange behaviors to solve problems.

There are some types of problems that are impractical for classical computers to solve, such as cracking state-of-the-art encryption algorithms. Research in recent decades has shown that quantum computers have the potential to solve some of these problems. If a quantum computer can be built that actually does solve one of these problems, it will have demonstrated quantum advantage.

I am a physicist who studies quantum information processing and the control of quantum systems. I believe that this frontier of scientific and technological innovation not only promises groundbreaking advances in computation but also represents a broader surge in quantum technology, including significant advancements in quantum cryptography and quantum sensing.

The source of quantum computing’s power

Central to quantum computing is the quantum bit, or qubit. Unlike classical bits, which can only be in states of 0 or 1, a qubit can be in any state that is some combination of 0 and 1. This state of neither just 1 or just 0 is known as a quantum superposition. With every additional qubit, the number of states that can be represented by the qubits doubles.

This property is often mistaken for the source of the power of quantum computing. Instead, it comes down to an intricate interplay of superposition, interference and entanglement.

Interference involves manipulating qubits so that their states combine constructively during computations to amplify correct solutions and destructively to suppress the wrong answers. Constructive interference is what happens when the peaks of two waves – like sound waves or ocean waves – combine to create a higher peak. Destructive interference is what happens when a wave peak and a wave trough combine and cancel each other out. Quantum algorithms, which are few and difficult to devise, set up a sequence of interference patterns that yield the correct answer to a problem.

Entanglement establishes a uniquely quantum correlation between qubits: The state of one cannot be described independently of the others, no matter how far apart the qubits are. This is what Albert Einstein famously dismissed as “spooky action at a distance.” Entanglement’s collective behavior, orchestrated through a quantum computer, enables computational speed-ups that are beyond the reach of classical computers.

The ones and zeros – and everything in between – of quantum computing.

Applications of quantum computing

Quantum computing has a range of potential uses where it can outperform classical computers. In cryptography, quantum computers pose both an opportunity and a challenge. Most famously, they have the potential to decipher current encryption algorithms, such as the widely used RSA scheme.

One consequence of this is that today’s encryption protocols need to be reengineered to be resistant to future quantum attacks. This recognition has led to the burgeoning field of post-quantum cryptography. After a long process, the National Institute of Standards and Technology recently selected four quantum-resistant algorithms and has begun the process of readying them so that organizations around the world can use them in their encryption technology.

In addition, quantum computing can dramatically speed up quantum simulation: the ability to predict the outcome of experiments operating in the quantum realm. Famed physicist Richard Feynman envisioned this possibility more than 40 years ago. Quantum simulation offers the potential for considerable advancements in chemistry and materials science, aiding in areas such as the intricate modeling of molecular structures for drug discovery and enabling the discovery or creation of materials with novel properties.

Another use of quantum information technology is quantum sensing: detecting and measuring physical properties like electromagnetic energy, gravity, pressure and temperature with greater sensitivity and precision than non-quantum instruments. Quantum sensing has myriad applications in fields such as environmental monitoring, geological exploration, medical imaging and surveillance.

Initiatives such as the development of a quantum internet that interconnects quantum computers are crucial steps toward bridging the quantum and classical computing worlds. This network could be secured using quantum cryptographic protocols such as quantum key distribution, which enables ultra-secure communication channels that are protected against computational attacks – including those using quantum computers.

Despite a growing application suite for quantum computing, developing new algorithms that make full use of the quantum advantage – in particular in machine learning – remains a critical area of ongoing research.

a metal apparatus with green laser light in the background
A prototype quantum sensor developed by MIT researchers can detect any frequency of electromagnetic waves.
Guoqing Wang, CC BY-NC-ND

Staying coherent and overcoming errors

The quantum computing field faces significant hurdles in hardware and software development. Quantum computers are highly sensitive to any unintentional interactions with their environments. This leads to the phenomenon of decoherence, where qubits rapidly degrade to the 0 or 1 states of classical bits.

Building large-scale quantum computing systems capable of delivering on the promise of quantum speed-ups requires overcoming decoherence. The key is developing effective methods of suppressing and correcting quantum errors, an area my own research is focused on.

In navigating these challenges, numerous quantum hardware and software startups have emerged alongside well-established technology industry players like Google and IBM. This industry interest, combined with significant investment from governments worldwide, underscores a collective recognition of quantum technology’s transformative potential. These initiatives foster a rich ecosystem where academia and industry collaborate, accelerating progress in the field.

Quantum advantage coming into view

Quantum computing may one day be as disruptive as the arrival of generative AI. Currently, the development of quantum computing technology is at a crucial juncture. On the one hand, the field has already shown early signs of having achieved a narrowly specialized quantum advantage. Researchers at Google and later a team of researchers in China demonstrated quantum advantage for generating a list of random numbers with certain properties. My research team demonstrated a quantum speed-up for a random number guessing game.

On the other hand, there is a tangible risk of entering a “quantum winter,” a period of reduced investment if practical results fail to materialize in the near term.

While the technology industry is working to deliver quantum advantage in products and services in the near term, academic research remains focused on investigating the fundamental principles underpinning this new science and technology. This ongoing basic research, fueled by enthusiastic cadres of new and bright students of the type I encounter almost every day, ensures that the field will continue to progress.The Conversation

About the Author:

Daniel Lidar, Professor of Electrical Engineering, Chemistry, and Physics & Astronomy, University of Southern California

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Financial News Programming
22 Nov

Copper Stocks: Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain

Source: Streetwise Reports  (11/17/23)

Despite stockpiles of copper growing quickly, analysts polled at London Metal Exchange Week believe the red metal will bring good returns in the long run. 

Stockpiles of copper registered with the London Metal Exchange (LME) more than doubled this summer and were at their highest level since May 2022 in September.

Despite that, just one month later, an informal poll of 800 people attending LME Week in London found that 53% believed the red metal needed for the green energy revolution would be the metal with the most upside price potential next year, according to Reuters.

Copper will be “THE bullish energy transition trade within commodities,” said Max Layton of Citi during an analysts’ debate, the report said.

Tin came in a distant second in the survey with 23%.

Copper will be “THE bullish energy transition trade within commodities,” said Max Layton of Citi during an analysts’ debate.

Analysts said several companies — including World Copper Ltd., Granite Creek Copper Ltd., and Fabled Copper Corp. — could be there to reap the benefits of that upside.

The International Copper Study Group met in Lisbon, Portugal, last month, and found that stockpiles are expected to grow, and 2024 could see a surplus of about 467,000 pounds of copper on the market as a consequence of higher supply from new or expanded mines.

“Although the global economic outlook is challenging, an expected improvement in manufacturing activity, the ongoing energy transition and the development of new semis production capacity in various countries should support higher growth in world refined usage in 2024,” the group wrote in a release.

The Catalyst: Deficits Will Grow

Copper (Cu) prices haven’t moved much since spiking earlier this year, but BMI analysts believe deficits could still grow at an extreme pace over the coming decade as the clean energy revolution takes hold, predicting prices of US$11,500 per ton by 2032. Copper’s price was US$8,030 per ton ” Friday morning.

“In the longer term, we expect the copper market to remain in deficit as the green transition accelerates along with the demand for ‘green’ metals, including copper,” BMI’s analysts said, according to Stockhead.

EVs use more than three times as much copper as gas-burning cars. New copper production — and investment in exploration — will be needed to fuel the supply of those vehicles long-term, analysts have said.

“In the longer term, we expect the copper market to remain in deficit as the green transition accelerates along with the demand for ‘green’ metals, including copper,” BMI’s analysts said, according to Stockhead.

“Based on industry-wide capital intensity data, we calculate that some US$196 billion of investment will be required,” a market analysis issued by RFC Ambrian said. “Of this, US$80 billion is for greenfield projects, and US$116 billion is for brownfield projects, of which US$71 billion is simply for replacement capacity. A further US$35 billion of investment will be required to close the supply gap.”

An S&P report called copper “one of the most underappreciated critical minerals.”

“Deeper electrification requires wires, and wires are primarily made from copper,” the report said.

Billionaire Robert Friedland, founder and executive co-chairman of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., recently told Bloomberg that he fears copper prices could jump tenfold eventually.

“We’re heading for a train wreck here,” he said.

World Copper Ltd.

One company that could benefit from a future spike in copper prices is Vancouver-based World Copper Ltd. (WCU:TSX.V;WCUFF:OTCQX; 7LY0:FRA), which is focused on the exploration and development of its copper porphyry projects: Escalones and Cristal in Chile, and Zonia in Arizona.

Taylor Combaluzier of Red Cloud Securities has rated the stock a Buy with a target of CA$2.15. He said World Copper has “transformed from an explorer into a developer with a portfolio of high-quality copper projects in premiere copper mining jurisdictions.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

World Copper Ltd. (WCU:TSX.V; WCUFF:OTCQB)

Retail: 40.67%
Strategic Investors: 31.16%
Management & Insiders: 27%
Institutions: 1.17%
40.7%
31.2%
27.0%
*Share Structure as of 4/20/2023
Source: Thomson Reuters & World Copper Ltd.

 

“We believe Escalones shows compelling economics when compared to other copper development projects and that it offers lots of potential for resource expansion,” he wrote. “Additionally, we believe Zonia has lots of untapped potential, as it could either be rapidly developed for nearer-term production or potentially be expanded through exploration to increase the scale of the project.”

Zacks Small-Cap Research analyst Steven Ralston has a CA$0.59 per share target price on the junior mining company. Its share price on Friday, in comparison, was CA$0.065 per share, implying a potential return for investors of more than 800%.

Earlier this year, World Copper filed an updated mineral resource estimate (MRE) for Zonia. It increased total resources by about 90% to about 198 million tonnes from a 2017 estimate, with contained copper increasing by 55% to about 1.03 billion pounds.

Escalones is about 100 kilometers from Santiago. Its PEA (preliminary economic assessment) estimates an inferred resource of 426 million tonnes of 0.367% copper, containing 3,447 pounds of copper.

Coming catalysts include permitting for Escalones and a preliminary feasibility study (PFS) of Zonia’s main deposit.

Wealth Minerals Ltd. (WML:TSX.V; WMLLF:OTCQB) owns about 15.8% of World Copper or about 19.2 million shares. About 27% is owned by management and insiders, including Director Robert Kopple with 11.84% or 14.8 million shares and Board Chairman Hendrik van Alphen with 2.67% or 3.25 million shares. CEO Peterson said he holds about 700,000 shares. The rest is retail.

Its market cap is CA$8.13 million. It has 125 million shares outstanding, including 87.2 million of them free-floating. It trades in a 52-week range of CA$0.26 and CA$0.07.

Granite Creek Copper Ltd.

Another play for copper is Granite Creek Copper Ltd. (GCX:TSX.V; GCXXF:OTCQB), “a Canadian exploration company focused on the acquisition and development of highly prospective brownfields assets in top districts of favorable North American mining jurisdictions,” according to its website. It is a member of the Metallic Group of Companies, along with Metallic Minerals and Stillwater Critical Minerals.

Per a 2023 PEA, its Carmacks Project has the potential for significant additional cash flow from the processing of oxide tailings to increase total copper recovery.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Granite Creek Copper Ltd. (GCX:TSX.V; GCXXF:OTCQB)

Retail: 94.29%
Management & Insiders: 5.71%
94.3%
5.7%
*Share Structure as of 8/28/2023
Source: Thomson Reuters

 

The company has also identified additional near-mine exploration targets that have the potential to increase the resource from the current 36 million tonnes grading around 1.07% copper equivalent.  The project currently has a mine life of nine years, at 7,000 tonnes per day (TPD), and any further expansion into the surrounding area could significantly extend that operational lifespan.

Recently, the company announced the preliminary results of a metallurgical study designed to increase the recovery of copper from oxide material at Carmacks, with up to 81% of the copper present in the test samples going into solution.

A Couloir Capital research report referred to Granite Creek Copper as a “promising base metals explorer with a near-term target of reaching a billion pounds of copper at its Carmacks Copper Project.”

Bob Moriarty of 321gold.com said Granite Greek was “a really easy call.”

“Green energy requires enormous quantities of copper, lithium, and graphite, far more than today,” Moriarty wrote. “Prices will have to go up. Granite Creek Copper is in the catbird’s seat, ready to move to production.”

Moriarty wrote that he’s “not a big expert on copper, but Granite has to be one of the lowest market cap copper stories with a real asset.”

Management and insiders own 5.71% of the company. Timothy Johnson owns 2.54% of the company with 4.08 million shares, Robert Sennott owns 1.84% with 2.96 million shares, Michael Victor Rowley owns 1.07% with 1.71 million shares, and John Charles Richard Cumming owns 0.26% with 0.42 million shares.

There are 160.77 million shares outstanding, with 151.59 million free-float traded shares. The company has a market cap of CA$5.63 million. It trades in the 52-week period between CA$0.03 and CA$0.105.

Fabled Copper Corp.

Fabled Copper Corp. (FABL:CSE) has continually seen high grades of copper in fieldwork results from its Muskwa Project in British Columbia.

One float sample taken at about 1,600 meters elevation contained massive sulfides and quartz veining with 60% chalcopyrite, 3% bornite, and 23.4% copper (Cu). Another sample at the western side of the occurrence found “a staggering” 29.3% Cu.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Fabled Copper Corp. (FABL:CSE)

Retail: 97%
Insiders & Management: 3%
97%
3%
*Share Structure as of 9/22/2023
Source: Yahoo Finance

 

“We’re finding all this high-grade mineralization,” President and Chief Executive Officer Peter Hawley said. “So that’s a pretty good hint that, you know, we’re, we’re very close to the source . . .  It’s not very often you see high-grade numbers like this.”

Muskwa is in northwestern British Columbia near the Yukon border. It consists of the Toro, Bronson, and Neil claim blocks. All three were explored in the early 1970s before rockslides and snowfields arrested further development. One vein was developed and partly mined — 498,000 tons were milled with a head grade of about 3% Cu.

On the same day as the 29.3% Cu sample, 11 other samples were collected over an altitude of 158 meters. Of the 12 collected, 11 assayed greater than 0.5% Cu, seven greater than 10% Cu, and four greater than 20% Cu.

Fabled has applied for 15 drill sites at the project, including four in the Eagle Vein area. Negotiations with First Nations continue.

According to Yahoo Finance, about 3% of the company is held by insiders. They include Director Luc Pelchat with 1.19% or 210,000 shares, David Smalley with 0.86% or 150,000 shares, and President and CEO Hawley with 0.65% or 110,000 shares, Reuters said.

The rest, 97%, is retail.

Fabled Copper’s market cap is CA$870,000, with 21.75 million shares outstanding, 21.28 million of them floating. It trades in a 52-week range of CA$0.105 and CA$0.03.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1.  World Copper Ltd., Granite Creek Copper Ltd., and Fabled Copper Corp. are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000. In addition, Fabled Copper Corp. has a consulting relationship with an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, and pays a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Fabled Copper Corp.
  3. Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  4. The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

 

Financial News Metals
22 Nov

Analysts: Apple Stock Still Has Room To Grow

Source: Streetwise Reports  (11/17/23)

Some analysts say the stock of tech giant Apple Inc., the world’s most valuable company with a US$2.95 trillion market cap, still has room to grow.

Tech giant Apple Inc. (AAPL:NASDAQ), the world’s most valuable company with a US$2.95 trillion market cap, met some Wall Street expectations with its recent fourth-quarter results but missed others. However, some analysts agree there is still room to grow with the stock.

AAPL earlier this month posted revenue of US$89.5 billion for the fourth quarter ending Sept. 30, down 1% over the same quarter in 2022, and quarterly earnings per diluted share of US$1.46, up 13% YoY.

While Apple’s revenue has slipped in the last few quarters compared with 2022, its gross margins are expanding, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote, according to Barrons.

“Fundamentally, it has been an improvement in product gross margins, which have grown an average of ~170 bps per year since 2020, vs. declining ~140 bps per year between 2015 and 2020,” wrote Sacconaghi about basis points, or hundredths of a percentage point.

The analyst has a Market Perform rating on Apple’s stock with a target of US$195 per share.

The company’s Q4 FY2023 iPhone revenue went up 3% to US$43.8 billion YoY, which is in line with Wall Street predictions.

The Catalyst: Services Growth Beats Estimates

While the revenue for some of Apple’s product categories declined — wearables were down 3%, iPad revenue was down 10%, and Mac revenue was down 33% — some analysts pointed to the strong performance of the company’s Services segment as a bright spot. The division includes the App Store, AppleCare, iCloud data storage, Apple Pay, Apple Music, and Apple TV+.

“Fundamentally, it has been an improvement in product gross margins, which have grown an average of ~170 bps per year since 2020, vs. declining ~140 bps per year between 2015 and 2020,” wrote Sacconaghi.

That segment was up 16% YoY to US$22.3 billion and beat analysts’ estimates.

“Underlying iPhone and Services growth looks relatively healthy in the holiday quarter and generally in line with whisper numbers,” wrote Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, according to Benzinga. Ives rated the stock Outperform with a price target of US$240 per share.

Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng, who has a Buy rating with a price target of US$227 per share on AAPL, agreed.

“iPhone installed base continues to compound, with the iPhone active installed base reaching a record F4Q23 and benefitting from a record number of switchers in F2023 driven in part by expansion into emerging markets and a growing installed base in Apple Watch, Mac, and iPad,” Ng said.

Personal Computer Pioneer

Apple started in 1976, and its Apple II became one of the first mass-produced microcomputers. Its Macintosh computer, released in 1984, pioneered a graphical-user interface that directly influenced how we use our computers even now.

Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng, who has a Buy rating with a price target of US$227 per share on AAPL, agreed.

The company’s software now provides a connected ecosystem across several platforms – Macs, iPhones, iPads, Apple Watches, and Apple TVs. In 2018, it became the first publicly traded U.S. company to be valued at more than US$1 trillion, and its market capitalization rose to over US$3 trillion earlier this year. Its other products include AirPods wireless headphones and HomePod Mini smart speakers.

This year, Apple introduced its much-anticipated new virtual reality headset, Vision Pro, which is scheduled for availability early next year at US$3,499.

“Apple is pleased to report a September quarter revenue record for iPhone and an all-time revenue record in Services,” Apple Chief Executive Office Tim Cook said on the release of the figures. “We now have our strongest lineup of products ever heading into the holiday season, including the iPhone 15 lineup and our first carbon-neutral Apple Watch models, a major milestone in our efforts to make all Apple products carbon neutral by 2030.”

China Fears ‘Overblown,’ Analysts Say

Some analysts also agreed that fears of Apple losing iPhone market share in China could be overstated. Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang rates Apple Outperform with a US$200 per share price target.

“Fears of iPhone’s share loss in Mainland China to Huawei seem overblown when iPhone likely gained share in F4Q,” Yang wrote, according to Benzinga. “We expect investor concerns over China share loss to mostly dissolve heading into FY24.”

Yang said Apple’s financial results were solid given a “very tough macro backdrop,” Barrons reported.

Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang rates Apple Outperform with a US$200 per share price target.

“We continue to favor its long-term growth potential and unchallenged market positioning,” Yang wrote.

Wedbush analyst Ives said iPhone 15 demand in China was a highlight of Apple’s results.

“While overall, China revenues missed the Street in the September quarter, this was due to softer Mac/iPad sales, which marks the underlying growth the Street is truly focused on,” Ives said.

Apple’s numbers should cause analysts to “breathe a sea of relief,” he said.

“Underlying iPhone and Services growth looks relatively healthy in the holiday quarter and generally in line with whisper numbers,” he said, adding that iPhone China demand concerns were “a great fictional story by the bears.”

Heading Into the Holiday Season

Bernstein’s Sacconaghi said, Apple’s “guided below consensus revenues for the December quarter, (are) largely driven by a weak iPhone cycle. The December quarter typically sets the tone for the year.”

The analyst said he sees the stock’s quality as holding, but encourages investors to “‘be like Buffett’ and buy on dips.”

Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri agreed with Sacconaghi that Apple is seeing higher margins, the China numbers were encouraging.

“iPhone was in line and more importantly, China was an area of strength, which should help allay recent slowdown concerns,” Pajjuri said.

Pajjuri rates APPL Outperform with a price target of US$200 to US$195.

Apple recently filled in its holiday lineup with the new iPhone 15 and Apple Watch Series 9 smartwatches, plus new MacBook Pro and iMac computers that run on the company’s new M3 family of chips, which are based on a smaller and more efficient 3-nanometer process.

Services: Next Big Growth Driver?

Writing for Investor’s Business Daily, Patrick Seitz also noted that the Services division may be

AAPL’s next big growth driver.

“On Oct. 25, Apple raised prices for multiple subscription services, including Apple TV+ and its Apple One bundles,” Seitz wrote.

Investor’s Business Daily gave AAPL a Composite Rating of 90 out of 99. The rating combines “five separate proprietary ratings of fundamental and technical performance,” with the best growth stocks having a rating of 90 or better. It also gave the stock a Relative Strength Rating, looking at how the stock performs against others in the last year, of 90 out of 99.

“Wall Street sees the iPhone maker returning to growth in the December quarter,” Seitz wrote.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Apple Inc. (AAPL:NASDAQ)

Institutional: 54%
Retail: 45%
Insiders & Management: 0%
54%
46%
*Share Structure as of 11/16/2023

 

The company’s next earnings report is due in late January and could be a catalyst for the stock, he said.

Ownership and Share Structure

About 54% of Apple is owned by institutions and about 0.06% by insiders, according to Yahoo! Finance. The rest, about 46%, is in retail.

Top shareholders include The Vanguard Group Inc. with 8.32% or 1.32 billion shares, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. with 5.89% or 916 million shares, BlackRock Institutional Trust Co. with 4.32% or 672 million shares, State Street Global Advisors (US) with 3.66% or 569 million shares, and Geode Capital Management LLC with 1.9% or 296 million shares.

Top individual shareholders include Arthur D. Levinson with 0.03% or 4.59 million shares, CEO Cook with 0.02% or 3.28 million shares, Jeffrey E. Williams with 0% 560,000 shares, and former Vice President Al Gore with 0% or 470,000 shares.

Apple’s market cap is US$2.95 trillion, with 15.55 billion shares outstanding, 15.54 of them free-floating. It trades in a 52-week range of US$198.23 and US$124.17.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Apple Inc.
  2. Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  3. The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Opinions Stock Market News
21 Nov

Is capitalism dead? Yanis Varoufakis thinks it is – and he knows who killed it

By Christopher Pollard, Deakin University 

Yanis Varoufakis grew up during the Greek dictatorship of 1967-1974. He later became an economics professor and was briefly Greek finance minister in 2015.

His late father, a chemical engineer in a steel plant, instilled in his son a critical appreciation of how technology drives social change. He also instilled him with a belief that capitalism and genuine freedom were antithetical – a leftist politics that made his father a political prisoner for several years during the “junta”, as they called it.

In 1993, when he first got the internet, Varoufakis’s father posed a “killer question” to his son: “now computers speak to each other, will this network make capitalism impossible to overthrow? Or might it finally reveal its Achilles heel?”

Varoufakis has been mulling it over ever since.

Though, sadly, it is now too late to explain to his father in person, Varoufakis’s new book Technofeudalism: What Killed Capitalism answers the question in the form of an extended reflection addressed to his father.

“Achilles heel” was on the right track. In his striking response, Varoufakis argues that we no longer live in a capitalist society; capitalism has morphed into a “technologically advanced form of feudalism”.

Review: Technofeudalism: What Killed Capitalism – Yanis Varoufakis (Bodley Head)

Rent over profit

Traditional capitalists are people who can use capital – defined as “anything that can be used to produce saleable goods” (such as factories, machinery, raw materials, money) – to coerce workers and generate income in the form of profits. Such capitalists are clearly still flourishing, but Varoufakis argues they are not driving the economy in the way they used to.

“In the early 19th century,” he writes,

many feudal relations remained intact, but capitalist relations had begun to dominate. Today, capitalist relations remain intact, but techno-feudalist relations have begun to overtake them.

Traditional capitalists, he proposes, have become “vassal capitalists”. They are subordinate and dependent on a new breed of “lords” – the Big Tech companies – who generate enormous wealth via new digital platforms. A new form of algorithmic capital has evolved – what Varoufakis calls “cloud capital” – and it has displaced “capitalism’s two pillars: markets and profits”.

Markets have been “replaced by digital trading platforms which look like, but are not, markets”. The moment you enter amazon.com “you exit capitalism” and enter something that resembles a “feudal fief”: a digital world belonging to one man and his algorithm, which determines what products you will see and what products you won’t see.

If you are a seller, the platform will determine how you can sell and which customers you can approach. The terms in which you interact, share information and trade are dictated by an “algo” that “works for [Jeff Bezos’] bottom line”.

The capitalists who rely on this mode of selling are granted access to the digital estate by its virtual landowners, the Big Tech companies. And if “vassal capitalists” don’t abide by the laws of the estate, they are kicked out – removed from Apple’s App Store or Google’s search index – with disastrous consequences for their business.

Access to the “digital fief” comes at the cost of exorbitant rents. Varoufakis notes that many third-party developers on the Apple store, for example, pay 30% “on all their revenues”, while Amazon charges its sellers “35% of revenues”. This, he argues, is like a medieval feudal lord sending round the sheriff to collect a large chunk of his serfs’ produce because he owns the estate and everything within it.

This is not extracting profit through the production or provision of goods and services, as these platforms are not a “service” in the sense in which the term is used in economics. They are extracting rents in the form of the huge cuts they take from the capitalists on their platforms.

There is “no disinterested invisible hand of the market” here. The Big Tech platforms are exempted from free-market competition. Their owners – “cloudalists” – increase their wealth and power at a dizzying pace with each click, exploiting a new form of rent-seeking made possible by the new algorithmically structured digital platforms. Parasitic on capitalist production, they are now dominating it.

Cloud serfs

But something even more transformative has happened, Varoufakis argues.

Even though most of us are regularly interacting with capitalists and earning wages via our labour, now, for the first time in history, all of us contribute to “the wealth and power of the new ruling class” through our “unpaid labour”.

Every time we use our cloud-linked devices – smartphones, laptops, Alexa, Google Assistant, Siri – we replenish the capital of the Big Tech cloudalists. This in turn increases their capacity to generate more wealth. How? We train their algorithms, which train us, to train them, and so on, in a feedback loop whose goal is to shape our desires and behaviour. They are “selling things to us while selling our attention to others”.

This interaction, Varoufakis insists, is not taking place as any kind of market exchange, such as wages being paid by a capitalist to a group of workers. In this interaction, we are all high-tech “cloud serfs”.

The new advertising men of the postwar world, portrayed in the series Mad Men (Yanis is clearly a fan), thought television was amazing because of its power to deliver audiences to advertisers. They could innovate “attention-grabbing” ways of “manufacturing” consumer desires – and it was delivered free-to-air!

But, Varoufakis emphasises, the ad men of the previous century could never have imagined the development of something like Amazon’s Alexa: a digital network learning “at lightning speed”, via the input of millions of people, how to train us. It is shaping our desires and behaviours in a process of perpetual reinforcement. Our experience and reality are increasingly algorithmically curated. And due to the incredible ease and utility, the information is all freely given.

So the “cloud capital” we are generating for them all the time increases their capacity to generate yet more wealth, and thus increases their power – something we have only begun to realise. Approximately 80% of the income of traditional capitalist conglomerates go to salaries and wages, according to Varoufakis, while Big Tech’s workers, in contrast, collect “less than 1% of their firms’ revenues”.

Quantitative easing

So how did this dystopian turn happen without us really noticing the change? Varoufakis’s story is detailed, but he emphasises two main drivers.

First, the “internet commons” of Web 1.0 transformed into Web 2.0, privatised by American and Chinese Big Tech.

Second, the colossal sums of central bank money that were supposed to refloat our economies in the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) – a process known as “quantitative easing” – were lent out to big business. Coupled with “austerity” economics for the many, this “murder[ed] investment” and led to what Varoufakis calls “gilded stagnation”.

Much of the central bank money, particularly following another round of quantitative easing during the COVID pandemic, made its way to the Big Tech companies. Their share prices soared to astronomical levels.

The “world of money” was decoupled from the “real economy” where most of us live and work. In an environment where profit became “optional”, loss-making Big Tech companies run by “intrepid and talented entrepreneurs” chose to build up their cloud capital.

So along with markets being steadily replaced by digital platforms, central bank money displaced private profits as the fuel that “fire[s] the global economy’s engine”. Intended by G7 central bankers and their presidents and prime ministers to “save capitalism”, it has unintentionally helped finance the emergence of a new form of capital (cloud capital) and a “new ruling class”.

The ‘world of finance’, argues Yanis Varoufakis, has decoupled from the ‘real economy’
Markus Spiske/Unsplash

GFC: the turning point

So why was the GFC such a pivotal point? Varoufakis has a lot to say. Here’s a brief sketch. (Bear with me!)

Crucial changes had taken place in our economies since the rise of large corporations in industry and banking, which grew ever bigger over the course of the 20th century, eventually becoming global in scale.

The Bretton Woods international financial system – designed to prevent the “greed-fuelled recklessness” that led to the 1929 crash, the Great Depression and a world war – was abolished in 1971. From the 1970s, economies were progressively deregulated and free-market policies were increasingly enthusiastically practised, leading to a new “financialised” version of capitalism.

This was facilitated by the suppression of workers’ wages and bargaining power. The weakened state was progressively captured by lobbyists for the interests of big business. And the hegemony of the US dollar in the global system led to a “tsunami” of dollars pouring back into US markets from Europe, Japan, and later China, “[enriching] America’s ruling class, despite its [large trade] deficit”.

By the new millennium, this had led to an orgy of speculation and, by 2007, the financiers, using “computer-generated complexity” to obscure the “gargantuan risks”, had “placed bets worth ten times more than humanity’s total income”.

The new version of capitalism was failing. But it had grown to such scale and in such a complex, integrated “globalised” way that the banks and insurance companies were “too big to fail”. Their collapse in 2008 would have taken down the US banking system, and the rest of the world with it. Their hubris was thus “rewarded with massive state bailouts”.

What could have happened, as in Sweden in the 1990s, was to “kick out” the bankers, nationalise the banks, appoint new directors and, years later, sell them to new owners – thus saving the banks, but not the bankers.

What happened instead was that bankers, handed large bailouts, did not direct the money to where it was most needed. Neither punished nor chastened, they sent it straight to Wall Street. And there it stayed. Combined with the profits sent to Wall Street from the rest of the world, it eventually caused an “everything rally” that went on for over a decade.

This ultimately helped fuel the development of the cloud capital that has overtaken capitalism. And every time we use our devices, we contribute to its value. The more we transact via platforms, the further we move away from an economic system primarily driven by markets and profits, and the more power concentrates “in the hands of even fewer individuals” – a “tiny band of multi-billionaires residing mostly in California or Shanghai”.

A tech-driven economic revolution

Varoufakis suggests his theory helps us better understand extreme wealth inequalities, the “atrophied democracies” and “poisoned politics” of the West, geopolitics (he interprets the United States and China as two rival “super cloud fiefs”), the stalling of the green energy revolution, and more.

For Varoufakis, we are not just living through a tech revolution, but a tech-driven economic revolution. He challenges us to come to terms with just what has happened to our economies – and our societies – in the era of Big Tech and Big Finance.

The first decades of the 21st century have brought challenges that we are still struggling to come to grips with. One thing is for sure – we have no hope of improving things without properly understanding our predicament.

This book is a welcome contribution towards that task. A technofeudalist age, Varoufakis argues, is not inevitable. Despite the difficulties we face, we have the agency to reject “techno dystopia” and structure our institutions in ways that more meaningfully embody freedom and democracy.

Towards the end of Technofeudalism, Varoufakis canvasses some proposals, drawn from his earlier book Another Now (2020), for how to address these issues. These include ending the cloudalists faux “free service” model and replacing it with a universal micro-payment model, instituting a Bill of Digital Rights, and using digital technology to “democratise companies” (with decisions being taken collectively by “employee-shareholders”).

Varoufakis also proposes to “democratise money”. This plan would involve central banks issuing digital wallets, a universal basic income, reconfiguring “the central bank’s ledger” in the direction of a “common payment and savings system”, and abolishing the current capacity of private banks to “create money”.

The proposals are pretty radical, but I think Varoukais would say they are as radical as the times require them to be.The Conversation

About the Author:

Christopher Pollard, Tutor in Sociology and Philosophy, Deakin University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
21 Nov

Colleges face gambling addiction among students as sports betting spreads

By Jason W. Osborne, Miami University 

Three out of four college students have gambled in the past year, whether legally or illegally, according to the National Council on Problem Gambling.

An estimated 2% to 3% of U.S. adults have a gambling problem. The portion of college students with a problem, however, is potentially twice that number – up to 6%.

As an educational psychologist who follows gambling in America, I foresee the potential for gambling on campus to become an even bigger problem. Sports betting continues to expand, including on college campuses, since a 2018 Supreme Court ruling allowing states to make it legal.

As a faculty fellow at an institute that promotes responsible gaming, I know that colleges can take steps to curtail problem gambling among students. It is all the more urgent given that adolescents in general, including college students, are often uniquely susceptible to gambling problems, both because of their exposure to video games – which often have hallmarks of gambling behavior – and the stress and anxiety of college life, which can lead to using gambling as a coping strategy.

The spread of legal sports betting

As of November 2023, sports betting is legal in some form in 38 states and Washington, D.C. Further, 26 states allow sports betting online. Bills have been introduced – and some recently passed – in more states. These states include Vermont, Missouri and North Carolina. Thanks to technology, sports betting is now accessible beyond casinos. Anyone can access it online and on their smartphone.

More than US$268 billion has been gambled legally on sports betting between June 2018 and November 2023. Revenue in all U.S. gaming sectors has increased significantly, with sports betting growing the fastest, at an estimated 75% annually. It has generated about $3.9 billion in tax revenue to date.

Sports betting is also becoming more accessible on college campuses. A New York Times investigation found that sports betting companies and universities have essentially “Caesarized” college life. That is to say, they’ve made campuses resemble elements of the world famous casinos by introducing online gambling to students.

College betting scandals shine light on campus wagering.

These profits have driven increased advertising. Some estimate that total advertising through all media channels could approach $3 billion annually. This includes social media platforms like TikTok, where young adults are more likely to see ads for gambling. A study in the United Kingdom found that 72% of 18- to 24-year-olds have seen gambling ads through social media.

While advertisers reportedly focus on young adults of legal age, research suggests that children under 18 are also being exposed to advertising related to gambling. The intensity of advertising activity on social media has raised concerns and brought scrutiny. Earlier this year, for example, prosecutors in the Massachusetts attorney general’s office expressed concern that sports betting and other gambling might spread quickly through college campuses as a result of advertising.

Why college students are at greater risk of gambling addiction

Gambling addiction affects people from all backgrounds and across all ages, but it is an even bigger threat to college students. Adolescents of college age are uniquely likely to engage in impulsive or risky behaviors because of a variety of developmental factors, leaving them more susceptible to take bigger risks and experience adverse consequences.

It’s no secret that drinking alcohol is prevalent on college campuses, and this can increase the likelihood of other risk-taking behaviors such as gambling. Like other addictive behaviors, gambling can stimulate the reward centers of the brain, which makes it more difficult to stop even if someone is building up losses.

What colleges and universities can do to help

If you’re worried a student in your life might have a gambling problem, the Mayo Clinic describes signs to look for. These include restlessness or irritability when attempting to stop or reduce gambling, gambling more when feeling distressed, and lying to hide gambling or financial losses from it. Gamblers Anonymous provides a 20-question, self-diagnostic questionnaire to help people identify problems or compulsive gambling.

For more resources, organizations like the Gateway Foundation offer information and support to help someone with a gambling problem. Immediate help is available at the national problem gambling helpline, 1-800-GAMBLER. The National Council on Problem Gaming has lists of resources within each state that can provide more local support and assistance.

At the Miami University Institute for Responsible Gaming, Lottery and Sport, my colleagues and I are working to ensure that the recent dramatic expansion of legalized gaming is matched by effective guidance for policymakers and leaders within higher education. Many institutions, like the University of Oregon, have begun to acknowledge that widespread legalized sports betting and gambling can affect their students. A comprehensive and coordinated approach is required to protect them from harm.

There are resources available to help institutions, such as the “get set before you bet” initiative adopted by the University of Colorado, Boulder and others. This gives students practical tips to follow if they are going to gamble, such as setting time and money limits before they start.

Colleges and universities could do even more. According to the International Center for Responsible Gaming, institutions can address gambling risks to students by:

  • Ensuring there are clear policies on gambling and making sure they align with alcohol policies. United Educators provides examples of how institutions can create effective policies and support student wellness, like Arizona State’s policy. Theirs prohibits legal and illegal gambling at any event related to ASU and reinforces that alcohol possession, consumption or inebriation is illegal for all students under 21.
  • Promoting awareness of addiction as a mental health disorder and making resources for getting help available to students.
  • Ensuring those who work in campus counseling and health services are familiar with gambling addiction and prepared to support students struggling with addiction or problem behavior. Providers should also be aware that multiple addictions can be present, enhancing the challenges to management and recovery.
  • Surveying student attitudes toward gambling to track changes in attitudes, behaviors and norms.

With various sports championships, including in baseball, football and college basketball, taking place throughout the academic year, there’s no shortage of occasions for universities to check in with students about sports betting on campus. Gambling addiction is treatable, but preventing it from the start is the best solution.The Conversation

About the Author:

Jason W. Osborne, Professor of Statistics, Miami University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
21 Nov

The holiday shopping season provides support for US stock indices. Asian indices are growing amid expectations of a positive NVDA report

By JustMarkets

US stock indices continued their rally yesterday. At the close of the stock exchange, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.58%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) gained  0.74%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.13% on Monday. At the same time, the S&P 500 Index (US500) and Dow Jones (US30) hit 3-month highs, and the NASDAQ Index (US100) reached a year high. Rising technology stocks led the overall market higher, with Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA) rising to record highs amid optimism about artificial intelligence.

Favorable outlooks for the holiday shopping season are also lending support to stocks. According to a Deloitte survey, consumers plan to spend an average of $567 during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, up 13% from last year. Additionally, the National Retail Federation predicts that 182 million people will shop between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, the highest number since 2017.

Bearish factors include hawkish comments from FRB President Richmond Barkin, who said he favors raising the interest rate for longer due to unsustainable inflation. US leading indicators for October declined by 0.8% m/m, slightly weaker than expectations of 0.7% m/m and the largest decline in 6 months.

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) shares hit record highs yesterday after recently fired OpenAI CEO Sam Altman joined the tech giant.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) decreased by 0.11%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.18% on Monday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.79%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.11%.

Ahead of the release of this week’s Autumn Budget, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak promises to cut debt and cut taxes to further boost the country’s economy. Today, Prime Minister Sunak tweeted, “Now that inflation is halved, we can turn our attention to cutting tax… We will reward work by cutting taxes and reforming our benefits system so work always pays.” In another tweet, Prime Minister Sunak added: “I will do what is necessary to get our debt down and provide financial security. That will help keep inflation falling and get mortgage rates back down to affordable levels.”

Monday’s decline in the dollar index to a 2.5-month low helped energy prices. Crude oil prices also rose amid concerns that OPEC+ countries may extend and even deepen oil production cuts at a meeting this weekend. OPEC+ will meet in Vienna on November 25-26 to discuss extending oil production cuts. Geopolitical concerns have heightened shipping risks in the Middle East due to the war between Israel and Hamas and are supporting crude prices after a Japanese-chartered Israeli ship was hijacked Sunday in the Red Sea by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. The rebels have said they support Hamas in the conflict and will continue attacks on Israeli territory and ships.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.59% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.33% on Monday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up by 1.86% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 0.13%. Most Asian stocks rose at the open on Tuesday. Optimism about a recovery in China’s real estate sector is boosting sentiment. Yesterday, there were reports that the Chinese government plans to take additional measures to support the sector.

Nvidia (NVDA) will report its earnings for September on Tuesday after the US market close. EPS is estimated to be $3.36 on revenue of $16.18 billion. For the past three quarters, Nvidia has consistently beaten forecasts, citing a huge increase in demand due to advances in artificial intelligence. The company develops chips that are specifically used to develop and power artificial intelligence platforms that place high demands on computing resources. Nvidia’s strong results invariably spark a rally in Asian chip companies and have also been the driving force behind a significant rally in Japanese stocks this year. Nvidia recently unveiled a new flagship chip for AI development, the H200.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,547.38 +33.36 (+0.74%)

Dow Jones (US30) 35,151.04 +203.76 (+0.58%)

DAX (DE40)  15,901.33 −17.83  (−0.11%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,496.36 −7.89 (−0.11%)

USD Index  103.49 −0.43 (−0.41%)

News feed for 2023.11.21:
  • – Australia RBA Bullock Speech at 01:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Switzerland Trade Balance at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Hong Kong Inflation Rate at 10:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
21 Nov

USDInd hits 3-month low. More room to fall?

By ForexTime

  • Dollar weakened as markets raise bet on Fed rate cuts in 2024
  • USDInd approaches key support levels around 103 region
  • Daily close below 103 region could spark another 1,300-point drop
  • Other technical indicators suggest 350-point rebound ahead
  • FOMC meeting minutes later today may spark more volatility

 

The USD index has fallen by some 4000 points since its November 1st intraday high.

There may be little ahead to cheer for the index, given current market expectations that the US Federal Reserve may start to cut interest rates as early as May 2024.

Recall that greater expectations for lower interest rate cuts tend to translate into a weaker currency.

 

At the time of writing the US Index is approaching a convergence of support levels:

  • 103.000: an important round number level
  • 102.910: the 261.8 Fibonacci level

The Fibonacci levels are taken from the 29th September low to the 3rd October high.

A daily close below these levels could see the index fall further to 101.900 to trade around its lowest since August.

USDInd may see 350-point technical rebound soon

From an Elliot wave perspective, the USDInd D1 is in its 5th impulse wave of the decline from 107.914 posted on November 1st.

Based on the Elliot wave theory, wave 5 is usually followed by a correction with sequence A-B-C coming in different forms.

If the key support levels around 103.00 hold, we may see the index bulls come in for a counter trend move back up to its 200-day moving average.

 

Note also that the Relative Strength Index (an indicator that shows us extreme buy and sell zones) is teetering at the 30-point level.

If the RSI falls below 30,  it becomes technically oversold.

Such a technical event would increase the probabilities of a rebound.

 

However, the Average Directional Movement Index (an indicator that shows us the strength of the trend) is pointing upwards.

This means that the downward bias for the USDInd remains strong.

This could spell an extended decline in the USDIndex, until we see a peak in the ADX signaling weakness in the current bearish strength.

 

What could move USDInd today?

With FOMC meeting minutes due at 7:00 pm GMT tonight, traders and investors around the world are looking for confirmation that peak US interest rates is truly here.

In other words, markets want to know whether the Fed is truly done with its rate hikes for this cycle.

If so, that could send the USDInd to a fresh 3-month low.

 

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
20 Nov

Nvidia’s Q3 earnings: challenges ahead for chipmaker giant

By George Prior 

Nvidia’s third quarter earnings when they are revealed on Tuesday will be impressive and the guidance positive, but the company faces challenges ahead, yet almost every investor needs exposure to semiconductors.

This is the prediction from Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations, ahead of the chip maker’s report this week.

All eyes are on the tech giant after a strong second quarter performance that saw revenues soar to $13.5bn.

The deVere CEO says: “Nvidia’s second-quarter, epic, shock-and-awe-esque earnings report still looms large in the minds of investors around the world.  Now all eyes are on the semiconductor titan’s revenues on Tuesday.

“While we expect the revenue growth to still be hugely impressive and the company’s stellar rise will undoubtedly continue, its trajectory also faces challenges ahead.”

He continues: “There is growing and intensifying competition in the semiconductor market and this will threaten Nvidia’s market share and, therefore, margins over the longer term.

“In addition, the 170% surge in the second quarter mainly came from data centre revenues and Nvidia is very exposed to China.

“With China tightening regulations and cracking down on various industries, including technology, the company may face headwinds in this critical market. Regulatory uncertainties and geopolitical tensions could impact Nvidia’s ability to sustain its mighty results, especially if there are disruptions to its business operations in China.”

Despite the potential challenges on the horizon, the overarching theme remains—semiconductors are a cornerstone of the contemporary tech-driven world.

“Almost every investor should recognise the strategic importance of semiconductor stocks in their portfolios,” notes Nigel Green.

“As the backbone of the digital era, semiconductors power a vast array of technologies, from consumer electronics to advanced computing systems.”

The semiconductor industry’s continued growth is propelled by the increasing demand for smart devices, the expansion of 5G networks, and the rapid development of artificial intelligence and machine learning.

Including semiconductor stocks in a diversified portfolio offers investors exposure to a sector with long-term growth potential. The sector’s resilience, adaptability, and its role in driving technological innovation make it an attractive choice for those seeking stability amid market uncertainties.

“Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report is a pivotal moment for investors to assess the company’s standing in the dynamic semiconductor landscape.

“Investors, recognizing the critical role of semiconductors now and in the future, are likely to find value.

“Your future self will thank you for maintaining or establishing positions in this key sector,” concludes the deVere CEO.

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

 

Financial News Stock Market News
← Previous Page
Next Page →