InvestMacro

Mexican Peso Speculator bets touching most bullish levels in 4 years

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 12th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly higher overall this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning and the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (16,521 contracts) with the British Pound (12,066 contracts), the EuroFX (8,096 contracts), the US Dollar Index (3,087 contracts), the Brazilian Real (407 contracts) and Bitcoin (358 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-11,037 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-6,097 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-4,763 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-2,294 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-319 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators boosting Mexican Peso positions to best levels in 4 years

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the continued strength in the Mexican peso positioning. Large speculators slightly trimmed (-2,294 contracts) their bullish bets for the Mexican peso this week but have been pushing their bets to multi-year highs over the past month.

Last week, on March 5th, the large speculator position rose by over +12,772 contracts and ascended to the most bullish level (+106,586 contracts) of the past 208 weeks, dating back all the way to March 10th of 2020. Since the beginning of November, speculators have increased their bullish bets in thirteen out of nineteen weeks and have added a total of +72,995 contracts to the overall net bullish standing, going from +31,297 contracts on October 31st to a total of +104,292 contracts this week.

Helping the Mexican peso positioning has been the record high interest rates in Mexico at 11.25 percent which gives the currency an interest rate differential advantage over the other major currencies. The Mexican economy has been on a steady growth path as well with the year-over-year GDP expanding by 2.5 percent in the 4th quarter following 3.5 percent growth in the third quarter of 2023 and 3.4 percent growth in the second quarter.

The Mexican peso exchange rate has been strongly trending higher in the currency markets versus the US Dollar and the other major currencies. The peso exchange level versus the US Dollar, on Thursday, reached its highest level since July of 2023 at just over the 0.0600 exchange rate. The peso has also been higher versus all of the other major currencies we track on a year-over-year basis.

The Bank of Mexico does meet on March 21st with a market expectation of a possible interest rate reduction — so we will see if the peso can continue to shine in 2024 following a great 2023 when the peso had an approximate gain versus the USD by a little over 14 percent.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (100 percent) and the Mexican Peso (99 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (67 percent), EuroFX (52 percent) and Bitcoin (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores and above their midpoint (50 percent) of the last three years.

On the downside, the Australian Dollar (6 percent), the Swiss Franc (8 percent) and the US Dollar Index (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the Japanese Yen (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (17.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (11.4 percent)
EuroFX (52.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (48.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (100.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (92.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (27.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (12.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (8.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (9.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (33.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (42.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (5.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (11.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (67.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (80.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (98.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (100.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (45.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (45.2 percent)
Bitcoin (51.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (46.1 percent)

British Pound & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (24 percent) and the Mexican Peso (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (12 percent), the Bitcoin (12 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Swiss Franc (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-30 percent), Canadian Dollar (-24 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-19 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (12.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.1 percent)
EuroFX (-6.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-9.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (24.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-19.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-42.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-40.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-36.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-23.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-9.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-29.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-28.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (14.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (18.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-12.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-20.1 percent)
Bitcoin (12.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (4.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.6	11.9	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	36.1	10.1
– Net Position:	6,186	-6,381	195
– Gross Longs:	17,547	3,127	2,853
– Gross Shorts:	11,361	9,508	2,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.9	88.0	13.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-12.0	-2.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 74,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,096 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	56.0	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	70.6	7.5
– Net Position:	74,407	-104,604	30,197
– Gross Longs:	193,998	402,081	84,306
– Gross Shorts:	119,591	506,685	54,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.0	50.0	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	4.3	4.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 70,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.4	37.6	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	66.0	7.8
– Net Position:	70,451	-78,920	8,469
– Gross Longs:	123,285	104,338	30,123
– Gross Shorts:	52,834	183,258	21,654
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	1.5	74.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.1	-23.3	10.3

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -102,322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,521 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -118,843 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.9	63.7	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.3	33.7	13.2
– Net Position:	-102,322	97,877	4,445
– Gross Longs:	54,923	207,478	47,586
– Gross Shorts:	157,245	109,601	43,141
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.0	69.5	96.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.4	15.3	12.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -17,870 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,551 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	69.0	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.3	34.2	24.8
– Net Position:	-17,870	28,703	-10,833
– Gross Longs:	11,236	56,885	9,575
– Gross Shorts:	29,106	28,182	20,408
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.1	88.9	28.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.8	51.5	-34.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -30,874 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,037 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,837 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	59.0	15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.6	43.3	15.3
– Net Position:	-30,874	30,296	578
– Gross Longs:	35,964	113,942	30,149
– Gross Shorts:	66,838	83,646	29,571
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.2	70.4	24.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.9	21.5	-13.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -90,840 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.1	66.0	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.6	23.5	12.1
– Net Position:	-90,840	97,678	-6,838
– Gross Longs:	41,591	151,731	20,858
– Gross Shorts:	132,431	54,053	27,696
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.6	90.6	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.8	29.7	-15.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,465 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,763 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,228 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	50.1	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	58.3	5.4
– Net Position:	2,465	-4,337	1,872
– Gross Longs:	16,391	26,408	4,700
– Gross Shorts:	13,926	30,745	2,828
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.4	30.0	78.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.9	-9.9	7.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 104,292 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.6	39.7	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	73.3	0.8
– Net Position:	104,292	-110,810	6,518
– Gross Longs:	180,140	131,144	9,172
– Gross Shorts:	75,848	241,954	2,654
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.7	1.1	52.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-14.1	7.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,280 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.3	39.6	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.7	62.4	1.9
– Net Position:	8,687	-11,253	2,566
– Gross Longs:	26,314	19,532	3,502
– Gross Shorts:	17,627	30,785	936
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.8	52.0	58.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	11.6	4.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -994 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 358 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,352 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.2	4.9	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	85.4	4.7	2.8
– Net Position:	-994	59	935
– Gross Longs:	24,977	1,486	1,800
– Gross Shorts:	25,971	1,427	865
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	66.2	34.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.1	-24.4	3.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

16 Mar

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Silver (12,663 contracts) with Platinum (11,783 contracts), Copper (10,754 contracts), Gold (10,309 contracts) and Palladium (2,016 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only metals market with declines in speculator bets was Steel with a reduction by -560 contracts on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (88 percent) and Silver (82 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (18 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (67.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (62.6 percent)
Silver (81.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (62.6 percent)
Copper (46.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (33.9 percent)
Platinum (35.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (6.0 percent)
Palladium (17.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.5 percent)
Steel (87.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (89.9 percent)

Silver & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (30 percent), Gold (24 percent) and Copper (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-0.2 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (24.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (9.8 percent)
Silver (29.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (16.1 percent)
Copper (15.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (27.5 percent)
Platinum (-10.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-32.2 percent)
Palladium (0.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-5.9 percent)
Steel (-0.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (1.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 201,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,309 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 191,293 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.9	25.1	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	67.4	6.1
– Net Position:	201,602	-218,273	16,671
– Gross Longs:	283,062	129,432	47,992
– Gross Shorts:	81,460	347,705	31,321
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.3	36.2	27.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.2	-19.5	-19.4

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 40,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,663 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,315 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.4	28.4	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	66.5	9.5
– Net Position:	40,978	-55,130	14,152
– Gross Longs:	67,094	40,997	27,826
– Gross Shorts:	26,116	96,127	13,674
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.9	24.2	45.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.8	-21.8	-12.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 5,427 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,754 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.8	31.6	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.4	35.0	6.8
– Net Position:	5,427	-7,445	2,018
– Gross Longs:	87,439	69,378	17,050
– Gross Shorts:	82,012	76,823	15,032
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.0	57.4	31.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-15.0	4.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,364 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.9	23.6	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	38.7	4.2
– Net Position:	7,419	-13,041	5,622
– Gross Longs:	44,716	20,286	9,273
– Gross Shorts:	37,297	33,327	3,651
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.9	63.3	43.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	9.1	1.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,016 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,597 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	62.7	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.2	8.9	8.0
– Net Position:	-10,581	10,743	-162
– Gross Longs:	4,645	12,517	1,427
– Gross Shorts:	15,226	1,774	1,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	7.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.7	86.4	32.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	2.6	-33.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,677 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	84.7	1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	75.4	0.9
– Net Position:	-2,237	2,165	72
– Gross Longs:	2,153	19,748	290
– Gross Shorts:	4,390	17,583	218
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.8	12.9	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	0.7	-14.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

16 Mar

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (313,749 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (109,712 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (61,465 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (51,988 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (29,753 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (4,866 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (3,503 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only bond market with a decline in speculator bets was the Fed Funds with a decrease of -10,180 contracts for the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (82 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (64 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (58 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (13 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is the only market in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (26 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (27 percent) and the Fed Funds (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (26.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (28.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (34.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (30.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (13.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (26.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (16.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (26.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (16.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (64.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (63.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (58.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (56.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (82.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (66.1 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (29 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (24 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (24 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The SOFR 3-Months (-14 percent), the Fed Funds (-9 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-4 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-8.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-23.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (23.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (17.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-4.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-3.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (23.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (6.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-8.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (28.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (24.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (5.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (3.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-14.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-33.9 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of 427,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 313,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,530 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	54.9	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	58.8	0.3
– Net Position:	427,279	-420,998	-6,281
– Gross Longs:	1,915,030	5,967,032	28,910
– Gross Shorts:	1,487,751	6,388,030	35,191
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.3	17.8	84.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	14.5	-1.3

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -195,750 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -185,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	75.8	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	65.0	2.0
– Net Position:	-195,750	194,281	1,469
– Gross Longs:	130,033	1,361,057	37,516
– Gross Shorts:	325,783	1,166,776	36,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.7	71.0	93.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	5.3	29.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -938,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 61,465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -999,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	80.0	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	57.5	3.6
– Net Position:	-938,056	818,498	119,558
– Gross Longs:	426,089	2,908,549	251,836
– Gross Shorts:	1,364,145	2,090,051	132,278
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.4	62.6	89.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.6	-25.3	-7.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,262,134 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 29,753 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,291,887 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.1	85.2	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	65.6	5.0
– Net Position:	-1,262,134	1,149,142	112,992
– Gross Longs:	355,674	4,992,128	404,802
– Gross Shorts:	1,617,808	3,842,986	291,810
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.2	85.9	86.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	8.2	-8.1

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -603,546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 109,712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -713,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	78.6	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	65.4	8.2
– Net Position:	-603,546	561,179	42,367
– Gross Longs:	457,839	3,342,267	390,056
– Gross Shorts:	1,061,385	2,781,088	347,689
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.7	66.7	82.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.9	-31.8	-1.3

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -133,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 51,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -185,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	73.9	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.8	63.8	13.6
– Net Position:	-133,670	206,104	-72,434
– Gross Longs:	291,066	1,505,286	204,645
– Gross Shorts:	424,736	1,299,182	277,079
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	72.5	71.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.2	-14.8	17.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -54,533 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	69.7	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	69.8	9.4
– Net Position:	-54,533	-1,317	55,850
– Gross Longs:	231,115	1,043,932	196,307
– Gross Shorts:	285,648	1,045,249	140,457
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.5	13.2	89.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.9	-32.0	-3.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -316,870 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,866 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -321,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	80.1	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	61.0	10.0
– Net Position:	-316,870	303,111	13,759
– Gross Longs:	136,059	1,271,662	172,255
– Gross Shorts:	452,929	968,551	158,496
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.1	44.8	50.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-7.2	0.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

16 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (41,857 contracts) with Soybeans (16,828 contracts), Soybean Oil (16,286 contracts), Live Cattle (3,932 contracts), Sugar (3,186 contracts), Coffee (2,959 contracts), Soybean Meal (2,622 contracts) and Cocoa (2,469 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-8,981 contracts), Cotton (-3,599 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-1,812 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cotton

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (85 percent) and Cotton (82 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Cocoa (57 percent), Live Cattle (57 percent) and Lean Hogs (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (4 percent), Soybeans (4 percent), Soybean Oil (10 percent) and Corn (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (9.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.3 percent)
Sugar (21.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.2 percent)
Coffee (85.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (82.3 percent)
Soybeans (3.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (10.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (4.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (3.0 percent)
Live Cattle (57.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (53.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (56.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (57.5 percent)
Cotton (82.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (84.8 percent)
Cocoa (56.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (54.1 percent)
Wheat (30.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (36.4 percent)

Cotton & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (42 percent), Live Cattle (38 percent) and Lean Hogs (34 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Cocoa (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-12 percent), Soybean Meal (-9 percent) and Soybeans (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (4.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-1.4 percent)
Sugar (4.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.1 percent)
Coffee (0.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.6 percent)
Soybeans (-8.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-20.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (3.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-15.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-9.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-16.0 percent)
Live Cattle (38.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (45.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (34.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (47.4 percent)
Cotton (41.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (47.4 percent)
Cocoa (-26.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-33.1 percent)
Wheat (-12.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-1.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -189,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 41,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -230,887 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	43.0	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.7	30.0	10.6
– Net Position:	-189,030	199,050	-10,020
– Gross Longs:	297,244	658,122	151,688
– Gross Shorts:	486,274	459,072	161,708
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.5	89.4	98.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-5.4	9.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 84,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,186 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	52.4	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	63.3	7.9
– Net Position:	84,963	-89,468	4,505
– Gross Longs:	177,558	429,842	69,383
– Gross Shorts:	92,595	519,310	64,878
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.3	82.0	8.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	2.0	-26.4

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 56,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,959 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.9	37.4	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	64.3	3.1
– Net Position:	56,431	-58,262	1,831
– Gross Longs:	77,576	80,666	8,435
– Gross Shorts:	21,145	138,928	6,604
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.3	18.0	38.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	-0.0	-3.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -180,413 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -197,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	60.6	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.6	34.8	8.4
– Net Position:	-180,413	191,331	-10,918
– Gross Longs:	99,347	450,053	51,545
– Gross Shorts:	279,760	258,722	62,463
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.8	96.5	78.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.9	7.8	10.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,522 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	46.4	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	40.8	4.8
– Net Position:	-32,522	30,498	2,024
– Gross Longs:	112,652	254,151	28,336
– Gross Shorts:	145,174	223,653	26,312
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.4	89.5	21.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.5	-2.3	-5.2

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -56,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,622 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,509 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.5	50.2	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	41.4	6.3
– Net Position:	-56,887	40,575	16,312
– Gross Longs:	85,247	231,555	45,244
– Gross Shorts:	142,134	190,980	28,932
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.1	93.8	29.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.4	9.0	1.2

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 72,845 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.3	32.9	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	54.1	12.6
– Net Position:	72,845	-66,632	-6,213
– Gross Longs:	123,232	103,112	33,174
– Gross Shorts:	50,387	169,744	39,387
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.5	41.3	56.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.4	-39.9	-15.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,812 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.9	36.1	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	46.8	10.5
– Net Position:	32,016	-27,582	-4,434
– Gross Longs:	89,564	92,597	22,626
– Gross Shorts:	57,548	120,179	27,060
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	45.4	63.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.4	-37.3	2.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 97,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,112 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.2	32.6	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	71.4	3.3
– Net Position:	97,513	-106,880	9,367
– Gross Longs:	129,746	89,511	18,421
– Gross Shorts:	32,233	196,391	9,054
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.1	17.9	72.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.6	-40.9	30.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 45,772 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.7	28.1	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	52.3	4.5
– Net Position:	45,772	-51,017	5,245
– Gross Longs:	75,301	59,269	14,812
– Gross Shorts:	29,529	110,286	9,567
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.7	40.8	56.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.4	25.1	8.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -53,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,981 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.4	36.3	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	22.3	8.6
– Net Position:	-53,769	55,780	-2,011
– Gross Longs:	120,577	143,984	31,984
– Gross Shorts:	174,346	88,204	33,995
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.2	68.2	57.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	8.9	23.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

16 Mar

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Russell & Nikkei 225

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell & Nikkei 225

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly higher overall this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (3,729 contracts) with the Nikkei 225 (1,604 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (1,085 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (760 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-35,387 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-6,688 contracts) and the VIX (-3,151 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Markets Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (86 percent) and the Russell-Mini (72 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (62 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (29 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score is the Nasdaq-Mini (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (62.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (65.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (29.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (34.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (85.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (84.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (41.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (40.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (71.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (68.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (48.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (36.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (44.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (51.7 percent)

Nikkei 225 & MSCI EAFE-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (9 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-59 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-14 percent) coming in as the next lowest market in trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (5.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (3.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-2.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-2.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-14.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-6.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-58.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-50.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-6.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-11.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (9.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-3.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (8.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (15.2 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -49,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,151 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	45.1	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.7	31.6	8.2
– Net Position:	-49,106	50,627	-1,521
– Gross Longs:	70,068	169,379	29,419
– Gross Shorts:	119,174	118,752	30,940
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.0	34.8	88.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-7.0	5.0

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -239,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -35,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -204,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	71.4	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	66.1	7.2
– Net Position:	-239,827	141,731	98,096
– Gross Longs:	280,718	1,911,694	291,700
– Gross Shorts:	520,545	1,769,963	193,604
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	59.5	76.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	-0.1	5.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 15,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,085 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	50.6	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	66.5	12.4
– Net Position:	15,671	-17,818	2,147
– Gross Longs:	30,251	56,885	16,125
– Gross Shorts:	14,580	74,703	13,978
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.8	12.4	54.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	12.4	1.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,395 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 760 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 635 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	56.8	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	59.4	11.3
– Net Position:	1,395	-8,644	7,249
– Gross Longs:	87,501	188,656	44,899
– Gross Shorts:	86,106	197,300	37,650
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.3	43.0	94.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-58.7	43.0	-3.7

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -19,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,823 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	80.3	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	77.6	4.6
– Net Position:	-19,094	14,991	4,103
– Gross Longs:	66,221	453,340	29,908
– Gross Shorts:	85,315	438,349	25,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.5	30.1	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	10.6	-26.6

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,196 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	63.6	24.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	60.9	13.1
– Net Position:	-2,592	501	2,091
– Gross Longs:	2,100	11,469	4,451
– Gross Shorts:	4,692	10,968	2,360
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.2	38.9	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-8.3	1.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -20,943 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	88.8	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	86.4	1.1
– Net Position:	-20,943	12,062	8,881
– Gross Longs:	38,994	439,220	14,460
– Gross Shorts:	59,937	427,158	5,579
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.7	49.4	61.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.9	-12.4	17.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

16 Mar

Speculator Extremes: GBP, Peso, Soybeans & Australian Dollar lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on March 12th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the COT data tables or COT leaders tables)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The British Pound speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 24.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 70,451 net contracts this week with an increase of 12,066 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is now at a 98.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 14.0 this week. The speculator position registered 104,292 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -2,294 contracts in speculator bets.

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Brent Oil speculator level resides at a 91.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 22.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -11,141 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -1,489 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Steel speculator level is at a 87.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -0.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,237 net contracts this week with a dip of -560 contracts in the speculator bets.

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The DowJones Mini speculator level sits at a 85.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score has been falling recently and was -14.2 this week.

The speculator position was 15,671 net contracts this week with a rise of 1,085 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 3.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -180,413 net contracts this week with a gain of 16,828 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 4.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score has been falling and was -9.4 this week. The speculator position was -56,887 net contracts this week with an improvement by 2,622 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Australian Dollar speculator level resides at a 5.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -29.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -90,840 net contracts this week with a drop of -6,097 contracts in the speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Swiss Franc speculator level is at a 8.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a strong shortfall by -40.8 this week. The speculator position was -17,870 net contracts this week with a decline of -319 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn

Finally, the Corn speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 9.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a rise by 4.4 this week. The speculator position was -189,030 net contracts this week with a gain of 41,857 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

15 Mar

This Copper Co. May Be a Perfect Proxy for 2024 Metals Advances, Expert Says

Source: Michael Ballanger (3/14/24)

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. shares his take on the current copper market, as well as a few copper stock recommendations.

Copper prices rocketed up and through the $4.00/lb. level yesterday morning, sending Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX:NYSE) to a new reaction high at $42.50 and the June $40 calls to $4.74.

The 52-week high at $44.70 gives way to the all-time high just above $50. Freeport-McMoRan has huge copper operations, plus the mighty Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which has the world’s largest copper and gold reserves.

With copper and gold both breaking out in recent days, FCX is a perfect proxy for 2024 metals advances.

Minor resistance was at $42
Next stop $44.70
Then $50

I see a $6-8/lb. copper price by year-end, which means prices are much higher for FCX.

My junior copper list focuses on:

Fitzroy Minerals Inc. (FTZ:TSX.V; FTZFF:OTCQB) (CA$0.19 / US$0.14)
American Eagle Gold Corp. (AE:TSXV) (CA$0.62 / US$0.46)
Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF (COPJ:NASDAQ) (US$19.76)

Copper just traded at $4.0393/lb. Escape velocity achieved!

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Fitzroy Minerals Inc. and American Eagle Gold Corp.
Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All. My company has a financial relationship with Fitzroy Minerals Inc. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Michael Ballanger Disclosures

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

Financial News Metals

15 Mar

Rising US producer inflation may reduce the number of scheduled Fed rate cuts

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.35%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.29%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.30%.

The US weekly initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 209,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of a rise to 218,000. Thursday’s US retail sales report for February 0.6% m/m was weaker than market expectations of 0.8%, while the January figure was revised downward to 1.1% m/m from 0.8%. The February PPI reading of 1.6% y/y was stronger than market expectations of 1.2% and exceeded the revised January reading of 1.0% y/y (preliminary 0.9%). However, February core PPI fell to a 2-year low of 3.8% y/y. Either way, February’s core CPI and PPI remain above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

After the release of macro statistics, UST yields started to rise, and stock indices were corrected. Investors fear that amid high inflation, the Fed may reduce the number of scheduled rate cuts this year from three to two. So far, this is unlikely, but any hints from Mr. Powell on this trend at the upcoming meeting may trigger the beginning of a correction in the indices.

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) closed 4.12% lower, adding 4.81% to Wednesday’s losses. UBS lowered its price target for Tesla on Thursday from $165 to $225 but maintained a neutral rating. The bearish sentiment on TSLA has persisted since Wednesday, when Wells Fargo downgraded Tesla to “underweight” from “equal-weight” due to its view that electric vehicle sales will remain flat in 2024 and decline in 2025.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.11%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.29%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.66%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.37%.

ECB Governing Council spokesman Stournaras said on Thursday that he favors two interest rate cuts before the ECB’s August break and two more before the end of the year. He also said a rate cut in June is more likely than one in April. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 10% at the next meeting on April 11 and 90% at the next meeting on June 6. In Europe today, investors will assess final inflation data in France and Italy.

Oil prices rose because of an IEA report released on Thursday that said oil markets will face a supply shortage by the end of this year due to OPEC+ production cuts. On Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that global oil markets would be in deficit by the end of 2024 if OPEC+ maintained its current production cuts. However, the balance would become a surplus if OPEC+ started pumping more oil. OPEC+ will meet on June 1 to decide on production levels for the second half 2024.

Natural gas prices rose Thursday after the EIA’s weekly report showed US gas inventories fell by 9 billion cubic feet, which was higher than market expectations of 2 billion cubic feet. Natural gas prices are also under pressure after the Freeport LNG natural gas export terminal in Texas shut down one of three production units on March 1 due to damage caused by freezing weather in Texas. The unit is scheduled to resume operations this week.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.29% on the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.23%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.71% on Thursday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.20%.

Major Japanese companies have already agreed to meet union demands for wage increases. This raises the possibility that the central bank (BoJ) could exit its negative interest rate policy as early as next week due to rising wages, high inflation, and a stable economy.

Australia’s economy grew less than expected in the fourth quarter, supporting bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may start cutting rates this year. Markets currently estimate a 70% probability of the RBA starting to cut the money rate in August, with 40 basis points of easing this year.

The National Bureau of Statistics released Chinese house price data for February for a sample of 70 cities, which showed continued price declines in line with expectations. Average primary market prices fell 0.36% month-over-month, while average secondary market prices fell 0.62% month-over-month. Both figures were similar to the January decline.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,150.48 −14.83 (−0.29%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,905.66 −137.66 (−0.35%)

DAX (DE40) 17,942.04 −19.34 (−0.11%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,743.15 −29.02 (−0.37%)

USD Index 103.36 +0.57 (+0.55%)

Important events today:

– US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Industrial Production (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

15 Mar

Yen Weakens Despite Japan’s Deflation Exit

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair is rising, reaching 148.28 on Friday. The US dollar is strengthening across the market following the release of US retail sales data.

This information is prompting market participants to reassess their expectations for the future of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. The Fed could interpret strong retail sales as a significant inflationary factor, potentially delaying the timing of any rate cut.

On Friday, Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated that the Japanese economy is no longer suffering from deflation, as there is a strong trend towards wage growth. This statement is particularly noteworthy as previous comments from officials, including the Prime Minister, suggested the country had yet to fully emerge from a deflationary state.

According to Suzuki, the government has mobilised all efforts to support this wage growth trend.

The next Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting is scheduled for next week, and high expectations surround its outcome. The interest rate could finally move out of negative territory, currently at -0.1% annually. The BoJ remains the only major central bank that maintains negative borrowing costs.

Technical Analysis of USDJPY

On the H4 chart, USDJPY has completed a growth wave to 148.64. Today, we consider the likelihood of forming a consolidation range below this level. Exiting upwards from this range could open the potential for a growth wave to 149.20, with the trend possibly continuing to 150.00. The MACD oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line breaking above zero and aiming for new highs.

On the H1 chart, USDJPY is forming a consolidation range around 148.22. We expect an upward exit from this range and the continuation of the growth wave to 149.20. Following the completion of this level, a correction back to 148.22 (testing from above) is possible. Subsequently, the growth is expected to reach the main target of the wave at 150.00. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line above the 20 mark and ready to move towards 80.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

14 Mar

Silver prices have reached a one-year high. Oil is growing amid a decline in inventories

By JustMarkets

At Wednesday’s close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.09%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.19%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.54%. The Dow Jones Industrials Index received support from companies such as 3M (MMM) with a gain of 5.42%, as well as Chevron (CVX), Caterpillar (CAT), Home Depot (HD), NIKE (NKE), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Coca Cola (KO) with gains of more than 1%.

Fed Chairman Powell said last week that the Fed is “not far” from being confident enough to cut interest rates. However, markets rate the Fed’s probability of cutting interest rates at its meeting next week as near zero, as inflation is still too far above target. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at next week’s March 20 FOMC meeting at 1%, the May 1 meeting at 13%, and the June 12 meeting at 73%.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.02%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.62%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) index increased by 1.65%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.31%. The FTSE Index closed at 7,772 on Wednesday, the highest in ten months and marking the third consecutive session of gains. Market sentiment was driven by positive economic data that boosted hopes that the UK is recovering. UK Gross Domestic Product rose by 0.2% month-on-month in January, driven by strong retail and house-building performance.

ECB council spokesman Martins Kazaks said Wednesday that rate cuts could come within the next few meetings. His counterpart, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau, said the ECB’s first rate cut is more likely in June than April.

WTI crude oil prices rose to $80 a barrel on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session, as an unexpected drop in US crude inventories signaled strong demand in the world’s top oil consumer. EIA data showed US crude inventories fell by 1.536 million barrels last week, contradicting expectations of a 1.338 million barrel increase. It was the first decline in seven weeks, confirming industry data reported Tuesday by API. In addition, the report noted a decline in inventories at the Cushing hub in Oklahoma and a decrease in gasoline inventories.

Silver prices (XAGUSD) rose to $24.7 an ounce, the highest since early December. They followed gains in other precious metals amid growing expectations that major central banks will soon start cutting interest rates. The Fed and ECB are expected to begin easing monetary policy in June, while the Bank of England will likely make its first rate cut in August.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.26% on the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.89%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.07% on Wednesday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.22%. The Hang Seng Index (HK50) moved further away from the 3-month highs reached earlier in the week after Wall Street fell from recent highs overnight due to losses in chipmaker stocks, and market participants were wary of new key US economic data ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.

The US House of Representatives passed a landmark bill that gives Chinese TikTok owner ByteDance six months to sell a controlling stake or the app will be blocked in the US.

Investors remain cautious amid growing speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could adjust its monetary policy as early as next week due to rising wages, inflation, and a strong economy. The country also concluded this year’s spring wage talks on Wednesday, with several major Japanese companies agreeing to solid wage increases.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,165.31 −9.96 (−0.19%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,043.32 +37.83 (+0.097%)

DAX (DE40) 17,961.38 −3.73 (−0.021%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,772.17 +24.36 (+0.31%)

USD Index 102.80 -0.16 (-0.16%)

Important events today:

– Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Retail Sales (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.