29 Oct

Bitcoin has reached the $70,000 mark. The Canadian dollar fell to last year’s lows

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones (US30) rose 0.65% on Monday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.27%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed at its opening price. Stocks rose amid lower geopolitical risks in the Middle East after Israel launched only a limited retaliatory strike on some Iranian military installations over the weekend and did not bomb oil infrastructure. Corporate earnings season for the third quarter remains in full swing. Those giants will be reporting this week. Of the companies in the S&P 500 that have already posted earnings, 76% beat estimates. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P 500 companies, on average, are expected to report quarterly earnings growth of 4.3% y/y in Q3, below the consensus of 7.9% y/y growth seen in July.

Boeing (BA) is down 2.71% after it began selling $19 billion worth of shares to reduce debt and try to stave off a downgrade to undesirable. Coinbase (COIN) is up 5.48% thanks to support from Bitcoin’s 4.1% rally on Monday.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) broke the key $70,000 mark this week for the first time since June, driven by strong inflows into US Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds. According to industry data, US Bitcoin funds have recorded inflows of more than $3 billion in the past two weeks, bringing year-to-date inflows to more than $25 billion. Betting on Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election on November 5 has also contributed to the rise of crypto assets, as he has consistently voiced support for the crypto industry during his campaign.

In October, the Canadian dollar fell to 1.39 per US dollar, the weakest since October 2022, amid pressure from lower oil prices and the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) dovish stance. At its last meeting, the Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by 50 bps and signaled that more rate cuts are likely to follow, contrasting with the US Federal Reserve’s less accommodative outlook. This was driven by slowing inflation and a softening labor market, with inflation falling to 1.6% in September, below the 2% target for the first time in three years, and unemployment hitting a two-year high of 6.6%

The Mexican peso (USD/MXN) slipped below 20 per dollar in October, hitting a seven-week low, as mid-month inflation data coincided with signals from recent Bank of Mexico meeting minutes hinting at a potentially looser monetary stance. Core inflation fell to 3.87% from 3.95% in the first two weeks of October, fueling speculation of a 0.25% interest rate cut in November, which could put pressure on the peso by curbing capital inflows.

Equity markets in Europe were steadily rising on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.35%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.79% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.77%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.45%.

As for oil, after the easing of tensions in the Middle East, the market’s attention shifted back to weak fundamentals, particularly sluggish demand growth in China and the expected increase in OPEC production. These factors have a negative impact on oil quotations.

Asian markets were predominantly rising on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.82%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.07%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.05%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive 0.12%.

The offshore yuan fell to 7.15 per dollar, hitting a more than two-month low. It remains under pressure from a strengthening US dollar, supported by signs of resilience in the US economy and growing expectations of a possible victory for Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election. In addition, traders remained cautious as they awaited further details on anticipated fiscal stimulus measures from China’s top leaders at their upcoming meeting from November 4 to 8.

On Tuesday, the New Zealand dollar held near the three-month low reached in the previous session. Domestically, the kiwi remains under pressure as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to continue aggressively cutting interest rates now that inflation has returned to the target range. Investors are currently estimating a 0.5% rate cut at the Central Bank’s last meeting of the year in November, with some expecting a 75 basis point cut.

In Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its parliamentary majority in elections over the weekend, raising policy uncertainty and further complicating the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) plans for a rate hike. Meanwhile, data showed Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 2.4% in September from 2.5% in August, the lowest in eight months. Investors now await the Bank of Japan’s policy decision on Thursday, where rates are expected to remain unchanged.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,823.52 +15.40 (0.27%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,387.57 +273.17 (0.65%)

DAX (DE40) 19,531.62 +68.03 (0.35%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,285.62 +36.78 (0.45%)

USD Index 104.30 +0.04 (+0.04%)

News feed for: 2024.10.29

  • German GfK German Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
  • US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News
29 Oct

Brent Crude Oil Experiences Sharp Price Decline

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

Brent crude oil prices have significantly decreased, reaching 71.46 USD per barrel on Tuesday. Prices fell nearly 6% earlier in the week, marking the most prominent daily drop in two years. The price reduction reflects the market’s reaction to developments in the Middle East, where the escalation of tensions has somewhat subsided.

Over the weekend, Israel’s measured response to Iran, which notably avoided impacting oil facilities and nuclear sites, substantially lowered the risk premium associated with potential disruptions in oil supplies from the region. Furthermore, Israeli officials expressed willingness to consider a temporary ceasefire in the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of hostages, which has helped reduce some geopolitical risks that were previously inflating oil prices.

With the immediate threats in the Middle East receding, market focus has shifted back to the underlying weak economic data from China and the ongoing production levels from OPEC members. Additionally, upcoming US employment data will be closely monitored as it may provide further clues about the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming rate decisions. The prevailing expectation is two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each before the year ends, a scenario generally supportive of the energy sector. However, much of this has already been priced into the market.

Technical analysis of Brent

Brent crude is currently developing a corrective pattern targeting the 70.55 USD level. If this level is reached, the market may anticipate a rebound towards 75.75 USD. A breach above this could open up the possibility for a rally towards 80.90 USD, with further prospects to reach as high as 85.85 USD. The MACD indicator supports this bullish outlook, as its signal line is positioned below zero, indicating potential for an upward movement.

On the hourly chart, Brent is finalising a correction to 70.50 USD, currently forming the fifth wave of this corrective phase. Once the target of 70.50 USD is achieved, expectations shift towards a new growth wave, aiming for 73.23 USD as the initial target. This bullish Brent forecast is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line poised below 20, suggesting a pending upward correction.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News
28 Oct

Nobel economics prize: how colonial history explains why strong institutions are vital to a country’s prosperity – expert Q&A

By Renaud Foucart, Lancaster University 

This year’s Nobel memorial prize in economics has gone to Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and James Robinson of the University of Chicago for their work on why there are such vast differences in prosperity between nations.

While announcing the award, Jakob Svensson, the chairman of the economics prize committee, said: “Reducing the huge differences in income between countries is one of our times’ greatest challenges”. The economists’ “groundbreaking research” has given us a “much deeper understanding of the root causes of why countries fail or succeed.”

The award, which was established several decades after the original Nobel prizes in the 1960s, is technically known as the Sveriges Riksbank prize in economic sciences. The academics will share the award and its 11 million kroner (£810,000) cash prize.

To explain their work and why it matters, we talked to Renaud Foucart, a senior lecturer in economics at Lancaster University in the UK.

What did Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson win for?

The three academics won the prize mostly for providing causal evidence of the influence of the quality of a country’s institutions on its economic prosperity.

At first glance, this may seem like reinventing the wheel. Most people would agree that a country that enforces property rights, limits corruption, and protects both the rule of law and the balance of power, will also be more successful at encouraging its citizens to create wealth, and be better at redistributing it.

But anyone following the news in Turkey, Hungary, the US or even the UK, will be aware that not everyone agrees. In Hungary for instance, cases of corruption, nepotism, a lack of media pluralism, and threats to the independence of the judiciary have led to a fierce battle with the European Union.

Rich countries typically have strong institutions. But several (wannabe) leaders are perfectly comfortable with weakening the rule of law. They do not seem to see institutions as the cause of their prosperity, just as something that happens to be correlated.

In their view, why does the quality of institutions vary across countries?

Their work starts with something that has clearly not had a direct effect on today’s economic prosperity: living conditions at the start of European colonialism in the 14th century. Their hypothesis is that, the richer and the more inhospitable to outsiders a place was, the more colonial powers were interested in brutally stealing the country’s riches.

In that case, they built institutions without any regard for the people living there. This led to low quality institutions during the colonial period, that continued through independence and led to bad economic conditions today.

All of this is because – and this is another domain to which this year’s laureates contributed – institutions create the conditions of their own persistence.

In contrast, in more hospitable and less developed places, colonialists did not take resources. They instead settled and tried to create wealth. So, it was in their (selfish) interest to build democratic institutions that benefited people living there.

The researchers then tested their hypothesis by looking at historical data. First, they found a “great reversal” of fortune. Places that were the most urbanised and densely populated in 1500 became the poorest by 1995. Second, they found that places where settlers died quickly from disease and could therefore not stay – while local populations were mostly immune – are also poorer today.

Looking at the colonial roots of institutions is an attempt to disentangle causes and consequences. It is also perhaps the main reason why the committee would say that even if this year’s laureates did not invent the idea that institutions matter, their contribution is worthy of the highest distinction.

Some have suggested the work simply argues ‘democracy means economic growth’. Is this true?

Not in a vacuum. For instance, their work does not tell us that imposing democracy from scratch on a country with otherwise malfunctioning institutions will work. There is no reason for a democratic leader not to become corrupt.

Institutions are a package. And this is why it is so important to preserve their different aspects today. Weakening even a little bit of the protections the state offers to citizens, workers, entrepreneurs and investors may then lead to a vicious circle where people do not feel safe that they will be defended against corruption or expropriation. And this leads to lower prosperity and more calls for authoritarian rules.

There may also be outliers. China is clearly trying to push the idea that capitalism without a liberal democracy can be compatible with economic success.

The growth of China since Deng Xiaoping’s reforms in the 1980s coincides with the introduction of stronger property rights for entrepreneurs and businesses. And, in that sense, it is a textbook version of the power of institutions.

But it is also true that Deng Xiaoping ordered the crushing by the military of the Tiananmen Square protests for democracy in 1989. China today also has a clearly more authoritarian system than western democracies.

And China is still much poorer than its democratic counterparts, despite being the world’s second-largest economy. China’s GDP per capita is not even a fifth of that of the US, and it is facing major economic challenges of its own.

Actually, according to Acemoglu, Xi Jinping’s increasingly authoritarian regime is the reason why China’s economy is “rotting from the head”.

What trajectory are democratic institutions throughout the world currently on?

Acemoglu has expressed concern that democratic institutions in the US and Europe are losing support from the population. And, indeed, many democracies do seem to be doubting the importance of protecting their institutions.

They flirt with giving more power to demagogues who claim it is possible to be successful without a strong set of rules that bind the hands of the rulers. I doubt today’s prize will have the slightest influence on them.

But if there is one message to take home from the work of this year’s laureates, it is that voters should be cautious not to throw the baby of economic prosperity with the bathwater of the sometimes frustrating rules that sustain it.The Conversation

About the Author:

Renaud Foucart, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Lancaster University Management School, Lancaster University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
28 Oct

EUR/USD Weakens Amid Global Economic Uncertainty and Strong US Dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The EUR/USD pair began the week around 1.0789, reflecting heightened global economic uncertainties and a strong inclination towards safe-haven assets. The appeal of the US dollar is bolstered by rising US government bond yields and positive consumer confidence indicators from the University of Michigan, which reported a rise to 70.5 points in October, surpassing expectations.

The preference for the US dollar as a safe haven was notably evident over the weekend during Japan’s general election, underscoring the currency’s reliability in times of political and economic uncertainty.

Looking ahead, the EUR/USD pair faces a critical week with upcoming releases of October’s labor market data from the US. These figures are crucial as they could influence the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rate adjustments. Current market expectations lean towards two rate cuts by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points. However, upcoming employment data could potentially recalibrate these expectations, impacting the EUR/USD trajectory.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD

H4 Chart Analysis: The EUR/USD has recently completed an upward wave reaching towards 1.0838 and is now undergoing a correction towards 1.0780. Should this correction complete, anticipation for a new growth wave towards 1.0850 will increase, potentially leading to the formation of a consolidation range around this level. A break above this range could extend the upward momentum towards 1.0944. The MACD indicator supports this potential, with its signal line positioned below zero but pointing upwards, suggesting an impending positive shift in momentum.

H1 Chart Analysis: On the hourly chart, the EUR/USD has stretched a growth structure to 1.0838 and is currently correcting towards 1.0780. Once this correction target is met, a new upward movement is expected to commence towards 1.0815, with potential to continue towards 1.0850. This forecast is backed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is rising from above 20 towards 80, indicating the likelihood of continued upward price action.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
28 Oct

Oil, Yen tumble after weekend turmoil

By ForexTime

  • Israel avoids attacking Iran’s oil facilities
  • Brent sank 4% as markets refocus on global oversupply
  • Japan’s ruling coalition loses majority in snap elections
  • Japan’s political risks send USDJPY to 3-month high
  • Bloomberg model: USDJPY set to trade between 150 – 156 this week

 

Oil and Yen have seen massive declines at the onset of this week

Brent oil tumbled over 4% before erasing some of its intraday plunge.

If these losses hold for the entire day’s session, this would mark the 3rd daily session with drop of more than 4% so far this month.

In other words, oil prices have endured a highly volatile month amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Brent plummets by 4%

Oil sank today after Israel avoided attacking Iran’s oil facilities over the weekend.

Recall that, between October 1st through the 7th, Brent surged as much as 16% (using intraday prices) amid fears that the conflict between Israel and Iran could see the former targeting the latter’s oil infrastructure.

If so, that would have reduced oil supplies for global markets, and lower supplies tend to send prices higher, all else equal.

However, this much-feared event has been avoided this past weekend, with Iran’s Ministry of Oil announcing that the country’s oil activities are operating “normally”.

Traders and investors reacted by swiftly unwinding oil’s geopolitical risk premiums, with the market’s collective attentions reverting to the prospects of a global oversupply.

With more incoming supply expected in 2025, pending the OPEC+ decision due December 1st, coupled with still lacklustre demand out of China, no surprise that oil prices returned closer to the lows prior to this latest chapter in the Middle East conflict.

 

 

USDJPY soars to 3-month high

USDJPY punched above the psychological 153.00, with the Yen set to end the month as the worst-performing G10 currency against the US dollar.

At the time of writing, the yen’s month-to-date declines against the greenback stand at 6.3%, while its year-to-date drop now reads around 8%.

USDJPY soars to 3-month high

The yen sank after Japan’s ruling coalition, the LDP, failed to win a governing majority for the first time since 2009.

Despite the market’s initial reaction for a weaker Yen, there remains a lot of uncertainty about the immediate future of Japan’s political landscape and its implications for the economy, Bank of Japan rate hikes, and even the yen’s performance.

Here are some potential scenarios for Yen traders to mull over in the immediate future:

  • A weakened ruling coalition may resort to a more populist stance on its government spending plans, which may include a looser monetary policy stance as well.
    If so, this could set the stage for more yen weakness in the months ahead.
  • However, more fiscal spending accompanied with relatively low interest rates (loose monetary policy) could stoke inflationary pressures, which in turn may force the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to hike.
    Greater odds of BoJ rate hikes could translate into a yen recovery.
  • Still, the Bank of Japan’s hands may be tied, perhaps reluctant to adjust interest rates amidst this fresh bout of political uncertainty which is highly unusual for the world’s now 4th largest economy (according to the IMF, Germany has now overtaken Japan as the world’s 3rd largest economy in 2023).

    If the Bank of Japan is forced to maintain its rates at current levels, if may keep the Yen on the back foot, especially if doubts continue to percolate about whether the Fed can cut rates as much as previously expected.

Overall, the shocking outcome from Japan’s snap elections is bound to frame the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting this week, with its rate decision due this Thursday, October 31st.

Markets will be eager to know whether the BoJ’s hopes for normalising its policy settings have been dashed by Japan’s ongoing political turmoil.

Look out for what BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signals about policymakers’ thinking in light of this ongoing political risks out of Japan.

At the time of writing, Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 71.5% chance that USDJPY trades between 150 – 156.13 this week.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
25 Oct

5 Ranked Stocks that Made Our Watchlist Last Quarter

By InvestMacro Research

The fourth quarter of 2024 is under way and with the bulk of earnings reports still to come we wanted to highlight some of the top companies that had been added to our Cosmic Rays Watchlist from the last quarter.

The Cosmic Rays Watchlist is the output from our proprietary fundamental analysis algorithm that examines company fundamental metrics, earnings trends and overall sector strength trends. The aim is identify quality dividend-paying companies on the NYSE and Nasdaq stock exchanges. If a company scores over 50, it gets added to our Watchlist for further analysis.

We use this system as a stock market ideas generator and we continuously update our Watchlist every quarter.

However, be aware the fundamental system does not take the stock price as a direct element in our rating so one must compare always each idea with their current stock prices (this is not a timing tool).

Many studies are consistently showing overvalued markets and that has to be taken into consideration with any stock market idea.

As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results and, any stock added to our Watchlist is not a recommendation to buy or sell the security.

Here we go with 5 of our Top Stocks scored in Q3 2024:

Oshkosh Corporation (OSK):

Oshkosh Corporation (Symbol: OSK) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. OSK scored a 82 in our fundamental rating system on August 1st, 2024.

At time of writing, only 0.80% of stocks have scored a 80 or better out of a total of 9,639 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 5 times and actually decreased by -5 system points from the previous update.

OSK is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Industrials sector. The industry focus for OSK is Agricultural Machinery. The company is a designer and manufacturer of specialty vehicles, electric vehicles and intelligent products.

Company Website: https://www.oshkoshcorp.com

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)10.316.511.22
– Benchmark Symbol: XLI29.237.21.1

 

* Data through October 24, 2024

The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG):

The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (Symbol: HIG) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. HIG scored a 73 in our fundamental rating system on July 26, 2024.

At time of writing, only 2.06% of stocks have scored a 70 or better out of a total of 9,639 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 5 times and decreased by -8 system points from our last update.

HIG is a Large Cap stock and part of the Financial Services sector. The industry focus for HIG is Insurance. The company provides diversified insurance and financial services in the US, UK and internationally.

Company Website: https://www.thehartford.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG)11.370.710.92
– Benchmark Symbol: XLF21.246.41.0

 

* Data through October 24, 2024

Novartis AG (NVS):

Novartis AG (Symbol: NVS) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. NVS scored a 53 in our fundamental rating system on July 19, 2024.

At time of writing, only 8.41% of stocks have scored a 50 or better out of a total of 9,639 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 5 times and still made the Watchlist despite falling by -32 system points since our previous update.

NVS is a Mega Cap stock and part of the Healthcare sector. The industry focus for NVS is Drug Manufacturers – General. The company develops and manufactures healthcare products globally.

Company Website: https://www.novartis.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Novartis AG (NVS)23.319.380.49
– Benchmark Symbol: XLV25.318.630.7

 

* Data through October 24, 2024

EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME):

EMCOR Group, Inc. (Symbol: EME) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. EME scored a 60 in our fundamental rating system on July 26, 2024.

At time of writing, only 4.80% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 9,639 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 4 times and rose by 8 system points from the previous update.

EME is a Large Cap stock and part of the Industrials sector. The industry focus for EME is Engineering & Construction. EME is a fortune 500 company that provides mechanical & electrical construction as well as industrial and energy infrastructure mostly in the US and UK.

Company Website: https://www.emcorgroup.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME)24.4129.861.06
– Benchmark Symbol: XLI29.237.21.1

 

* Data through October 24, 2024

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP):

PepsiCo, Inc. (Symbol: PEP) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. PEP scored a 66 in our fundamental rating system on October 10, 2024.

At time of writing, only 4.86% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 9,639 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 2 times and rose by 28 system points from the previous update.

PEP is a Mega Cap stock and part of the Consumer Defensive sector. The industry focus for PEP is Beverages – Non-Alcoholic. The company is a major manufacturer and global distributor of numerous beverages as well as convenient foods with major brand names.

Company Website: https://www.pepsico.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)25.56.380.54
– Benchmark Symbol: XLP27.820.110.6

 

* Data through October 24, 2024

By InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies we add to our stock watch list.

All information, stock ideas and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Stock scores are a data driven process through company fundamentals and are not a recommendation to buy or sell a security.

Opinions Stock Market Ideas
25 Oct

Week Ahead: Big Tech set for big gains?

By ForexTime

  • 5 of “Magnificent 7” set to publish earnings
  • Combined market cap of 5 tech titans over $12 trillion
  • Looking past earnings, key focus on AI spending
  • Meta could move over 7.3% ↑ or ↓ post earnings
  • Apple richest company in the world reports results Thursday

Financial markets could end October with a bang thanks to market-moving events.

High-impact data from across the globe, a general election and rate decision in Japan coupled with earnings from tech titans will be in focus:

Sunday, 27th October

  • JP225: Japan holds general election
  • CN50: China industrial profits

Monday, 28th October

  • CAD: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speech

Tuesday, 29th October

  • JP225: Japan unemployment
  • SG20: Singapore unemployment
  • SPN35: Santander earnings
  • UK100: HSBC earnings
  • US500: Alphabet earnings

Wednesday, 30th October

  • CN50: Major Chinese banks earnings
  • AU200: Australia CPI
  • GER40: Germany GDP, CPI, unemployment, Volkswagen earnings
  • UK100: UK Chancellor of the Exchequer presents budget
  • USDInd: US GDP, ADP employment, pending home sales
  • NAS100: Meta platforms, Microsoft earnings

Thursday, 31st October

  • AU200: Australia building approvals, retail sales
  • CN50: China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI
  • EU50: Eurozone CPI, unemployment
  • JP225: BoJ rate decision, industrial production, retail sales
  • NAS100: Amazon, Apple earnings, US PCE report, initial jobless claims

Friday, 1st November  

  • CN50: China Caixin manufacturing PMI
  • UK100: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
  • US500: US NFP report, ISM manufacturing, Exxon Mobil earnings
  • US30: Chevron earnings

It’s all about earnings from the tech giants after Tesla’s blockbuster results sent its shares rallying over 20%!

Despite this burst of positivity, US equities are heading for their first weekly loss in almost two months amid rising Treasury yields and political uncertainty.

Five of the “Magnificent” 7 tech giants with a combined market cap of over $12 trillion are set to publish their results in the week ahead.

This is what you need to know:

    1) Alphabet

Google parent company Alphabet reports its third-quarter earnings on Tuesday 29th October after US markets close.

The tech giant is expected to post revenue and income growth, supported by the cloud division of its business. A positive set of results could boost Alphabet shares, already up over 15% year-to-date. Beyond the revenue growth, updates on AI spending will be in focus.

Markets are forecasting a 5.5% move, either Up or Down, for Alphabet stocks post earnings.

Alphabet

 

    2) Microsoft

Microsoft reports its fiscal Q1 2025 earnings on Wednesday 30th October after US markets close.

Despite slipping almost 4% in Q3, its shares are still up roughly 13% year-to-date. In July, when reporting its Q4 results investors were disappointed by the Azure cloud services revenue growth. So much focus will be on cloud services growth, AI development and forward guidance.

Markets are forecasting a 4% move, either Up or Down, for Microsoft stocks post earnings.

microsoft1

 

    3) Meta Platforms

 

Meta is set to report third quarter earnings after US market close on Wednesday 30th October.

Its shares have gained 60% in 2024, taking the tech giants market cap to over $1.4 trillion. Back in Q2, Meta advertising revenues increased 22% – so investors may be seeking for similar results in Q3 to justify recent gains. Watch out for any fresh insight on AI projects including the upcoming Llama 4 set for released in 2025.

Markets are forecasting a 5.9% move, either Up or Down, for Amazon stocks post earnings.

Meta

 

    4) Amazon

Amazon will publish its third-quarter earnings after US markets close on Thursday 31st October.

Quarterly revenues are projected to rise $157.3 billion from $143.1 billion in the prior year, translating to a near 10% increase. Investors will direct their focus toward Amazon’s Web Services (AWS) and advertising business in addition to any updates on AI research.

Markets are forecasting a 5.9% move, either Up or Down, for Amazon stocks post earnings.

amazon

 

    5) Apple

The richest company in the world with a market cap of $3.5 trillion reports its Q4 earnings on Thursday 31st October after US markets close.

Apple is expected to post revenue and earnings growth but it’s all about the performance of iPhone sales. Despite the new iPhone 16 released in September, there have been reports that orders have been cut by 10 million units. Investors will be looking for fresh insight into this development along with any updates on its AI technology through Apple Intelligence features.

Apple shares are up almost 20% year-to-date with markets projecting a 2.6% move, either Up or Down, post earnings.

apple 1

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News
25 Oct

Bank of England may delay rate cut. Inflation in Tokyo continues to decline

By JustMarkets

At the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.33%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.21%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.83% yesterday. Stocks mostly rose on Thursday amid positive earnings results and lower T-note bond yields.

Better-than-expected US economic news on Thursday boosted the outlook for a soft landing and provided support for equities. Weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell, indicating the strength of the labor market, October’s S&P manufacturing PMI rose more than expected, and September new home sales hit a 16-month high.

Tesla’s (TSLA) stock price rose more than 21% and led the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 higher after the company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 72 cents, topping the consensus forecast of 60 cents, and raised its full-year capital expenditures forecast to more than $11.0 billion from a previous forecast of $10.0 billion. T-Mobile US (TMUS) closed higher by more than 5% after reporting third-quarter earnings per share of $2.61, better than the consensus forecast of $2.43, and full-year guidance of 5.6-5.8 million net postpaid customers, above the consensus forecast of 5.56 million.

So far, more than 100 companies in the S&P 500 have released earnings data, with 76% announcing earnings that beat forecasts. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P 500 companies, on average, are expected to report a 4.3% rise in quarterly earnings in Q3 from a year earlier, below the consensus for 7.9% growth.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.34%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.08%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.21%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed yesterday up 0.13%.

UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves may allow more borrowing in the upcoming budget, which could delay the Bank of England’s (BoE) rate cut. Reeves plans to change fiscal rules to focus on public sector net financial liabilities (PSNFL), which could free up tens of billions for capital spending. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, this would have raised £53 billion of additional borrowing in March last year. However, the Treasury has said it does not intend to use these facilities immediately. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey expressed concern about persistent inflation, noting that while inflation is lower than expected, structural changes in the economy and high service inflation remain challenges. Market expectations for a November Bank of England rate cut have fallen to 86% from 100%.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $70 per barrel on Thursday, extending their decline after falling 1.4% in the previous session due to oversupply concerns. The latest EIA report showed a significant increase in crude oil inventories by 5.5 million barrels, well above expectations, while gasoline inventories also rose by 900,000 barrels rather than declining. In addition, crude oil consumption in China, the world’s largest importer, has weakened despite government stimulus measures. Concerns that the global oil market could run a surplus in the coming quarters are putting additional pressure on prices.

Natural gas prices (XNG/USD) rose on Thursday despite a bearish weekly EIA report showing an 80 Bcf increase in natural gas inventories last week. This is well above the consensus of 68 Bcf and above the 5-year seasonal average weekly increase of 76 Bcf.

Asian markets were mostly lower on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose 0.10%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell 0.97%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell 1.30% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.12% for the day.

The benchmark Consumer Price Index for the Tokyo area in October 2024 came in at 1.8% (forecast 1.7%) year-on-year, slowing for the second consecutive month. Last month, the index stood at 2%. Tokyo’s inflation reading is widely regarded as a leading indicator of nationwide price trends, and national CPI data will be released in about three weeks. Weakening Japanese inflation and political uncertainty cloud the prospects for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

S&P 500 (US500) 5,809.86 +12.44 (+0.21%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,374.36 −140.59 (−0.33%)

DAX (DE40) 19,443.00 +65.38 (+0.34%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,269.38 +10.74 (+0.13%)

USD index 104.02 −0.41 (−0.39%)

News feed for: 2024.10.25

  • Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
25 Oct

NZD/USD Hits Four-Week Low Amid US Dollar Strength

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The NZD/USD pair dropped to 0.5988 this Friday, marking a potential close lower for the fourth consecutive week. The strength of the US dollar continues to dominate the currency pair, fuelled by expectations of a moderate interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and persistent demand for the USD amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the lead-up to the US presidential election.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr recently reaffirmed the central bank’s capability to maintain low and stable inflation, noting that the bank is vigilant and ready to act should market conditions necessitate intervention. These comments have solidified market expectations of a potential RBNZ rate cut in November, with a 50-basis-point reduction widely anticipated. Some speculate that a more aggressive cut of 75 basis points could be on the table if conditions worsen.

Recent data indicating a drop in consumer confidence in New Zealand after three months of gains has added to the bearish sentiment surrounding the NZD.

NZD/USD technical analysis

The NZD/USD pair is extending its downward trajectory towards 0.5983. Following the achievement of this level, a corrective move towards 0.6182 could be in the offing, with an intermediate target at 0.6119. This potential rebound is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains below zero but is trending upwards, suggesting a possible easing of downward pressure.

On the hourly chart, NZD/USD has established a consolidation pattern around the 0.6000 level and has since dipped to a local low of 0.5987. A brief recovery to 0.6000 may occur as a test from below before another possible descent to 0.5983. Should this level be reached, it would likely mark the exhaustion of the current downward wave. The Stochastic oscillator reinforces this outlook, with its signal line positioned below 20 but curving upwards, indicating the potential for a short-term upward correction.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
24 Oct

The Bank of Canada cut the rate by 0.5%. Stock indices under selling pressure ahead of US elections

By JustMarkets

At Wednesday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) Index was down 0.96%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.92%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative 1.55%. All three major US equity indices closed sharply lower on Wednesday amid rising Treasury yields and concerns over the upcoming US elections. Investors and hedge funds are locking in their profits to reduce uncertainty risks.

Stocks also declined amid negative corporate news: McDonald’s (MCD) shares fell by 5% after an E. coli outbreak was linked to Quarter Pounder sandwiches that sickened dozens of people in several states. Additionally, Boeing (BA) shares are down 1.7% after the company reported larger-than-expected negative adjusted free cash flow for the third quarter. Coca-Cola’s (KO) share price is down 2.00% after reporting an unexpected 1% decline in third-quarter sales.

The Canadian dollar fell to 1.38 per dollar, its lowest since August, after the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut rates by 50 bps and signaled that it will likely continue to lower its benchmark rate. It was the first significant rate cut in the current easing cycle after three consecutive 25 bps cuts. The MPC noted that recent data showed slowing inflation and a weakening labor market.  CAD was also pressured by lower oil prices, which limited the Canadian economy’s export turnover.

Equity markets in Europe were declining on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.23%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.50%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.27%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.58% yesterday.

WTI crude oil prices fell below $71 per barrel on Wednesday, ending a two-day rally, after the latest EIA data showed that US oil inventories remain high. The EIA reported a 5.5 million barrel increase in crude inventories, which was well above forecasts

Asian markets were mostly rising on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.80%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.37%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.27%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.13% over yesterday. Chinese markets are rising for a fourth day, buoyed by bets on creating a 2 trillion yuan market stabilization fund, as suggested by a government-affiliated think tank. In addition, China’s central bank plans to expand the size of its new swap fund to support stock market liquidity after an initial quota of 500 billion yuan.

Judo Bank’s Australian Manufacturing PMI Index fell to 46.6 in October 2024 from 46.7 in September, This marks the ninth consecutive month of deterioration in the sector and the fastest pace since May 2020. The services PMI business activity index rose to 50.6 in October from 50.5 in September. This was the ninth consecutive month of growth. On the monetary policy front, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said earlier this week that the strong employment growth was a bit of a surprise, indicating that the central bank is prepared to react in either direction depending on incoming data. Markets expect the RBA to keep policy steady this year, with the first-rate cut not fully expected until May next year.

The New Zealand dollar traded near a two-month low as the US dollar strengthened amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to moderate interest rate cuts in the coming months and improve the odds of Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election. Domestically, the Kiwi faced additional pressure as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to deliver another 50 bps rate cut at its final meeting in November, with markets pricing at some risk of a 75 bps rate hike.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,797.42 −53.78 (−0.92%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,514.95 −409.94 (−0.96%)

DAX (DE40) 19,377.62 −44.29 (−0.23%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,258.64 −47.90 (−0.58%)

USD index 104.42 +0.35 (+0.33%)

News feed for: 2024.10.24

  • Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 01:00 (GMT+3);
  • Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 01:00 (GMT+3);
  • Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).
  • US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
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