17 Mar

Silver Tarnished No More

Source: John Newell

John Newell of John Newell & Associates answers the question: is silver poised for a dramatic move higher?

A Case for Silver’s Rise

Silver has long been a precious metal that plays a dual role: a store of value and an industrial commodity. With recent economic trends and historical patterns, the case for a significant price increase in silver is becoming more compelling.

Below, we outline key fundamental reasons why silver could be on the verge of a dramatic move higher, supported by two charts, one short-term and one long-term, illustrating its potential trajectory.

Technical: Silver Hits $35, Is $50 Next? And a March towards $70

The shorter-term chart shows that silver has recently achieved its $35 target and is building momentum toward higher levels.

Historically, when silver entered strong uptrends, it experienced parabolic moves. Looking at the past two major silver bull runs, if the metal were to repeat even an average of these moves (7x from its lows), silver could trade at $70 per ounce.

The long-term 50-year chart further strengthens this thesis. In previous major price surges, most notably in the late 1970s and 2010-2011, silver saw exponential growth over relatively short periods.

Given the similarities in today’s economic conditions to those times, there is reason to believe silver could be gearing up for another major bull cycle.

Fundamental Reasons for Silver’s Rise

  1. Hedge Against Inflation

Silver, like gold, is a well-known hedge against inflation. With rising inflation concerns and central banks continuing to lose monetary policies, silver provides a means to preserve purchasing power. Historically, when inflation accelerates, precious metals tend to perform well.

  1. Growing Industrial Demand

Unlike gold, silver is an essential industrial metal with applications in:

Electronics: Silver is used in high-performance electronic devices due to its superior conductivity.

Solar Panels: The renewable energy push is expected to drive increased demand for silver in solar technology.

Medical Uses: Silver’s antibacterial properties make it vital in the medical industry. As global industries expand and modernize, silver’s demand is expected to rise, creating upward pressure on prices.

  1. Affordability and Accessibility

Compared to gold, silver remains much more affordable. This makes it an attractive investment for a wider range of investors, particularly in emerging markets where gold prices may be out of reach for many. If gold continues to rise, silver could see increased inflows as an alternative store of value.

  1. Portfolio Diversification

Silver provides diversification benefits as it often moves independently from traditional asset classes such as stocks and bonds. In uncertain times, investors flock to safe-haven assets like silver, reducing overall portfolio risk.

  1. Market Volatility and Economic Uncertainty

Silver has historically performed well during periods of economic instability. If global markets experience turmoil—whether from geopolitical events, recession fears, or monetary instability, silver could benefit as a safe-haven asset.

Ways to Participate in Silver’s Potential Upside

While buying physical silver in the form of coins or bars is a traditional method of investing, there are other ways to gain exposure to silver’s expected price appreciation. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offer a convenient alternative:

SLV (iShares Silver Trust): The largest silver ETF, holding physical silver. It provides a direct investment in silver without needing to store it.

Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV): Another option for direct silver exposure, backed by physical silver held in secure vaults.

SIL (Global X Silver Miners ETF): Holds shares in approximately 33 silver mining companies, allowing investors to gain exposure to the industry.

SILJ (Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF): Tracks small-cap companies primarily engaged in silver mining, exploration, and development, providing leveraged exposure to silver price movements.

Additionally, several silver mining companies are currently trading at low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios. As the silver price rises, these companies could experience a leveraged effect, potentially amplifying returns for investors.

A Modern ‘Hunt Brothers’ Scenario?

In the late 1970s, the Hunt brothers attempted to corner the silver market, causing prices to skyrocket. While modern regulations prevent such extreme market manipulation, a global shift in investor sentiment could replicate similar price movements.

Imagine a scenario where large populations, such as those in BRICS nations, turn to silver as an alternative to gold. If gold becomes prohibitively expensive for average investors, silver could become their precious metal of choice.

Potential Outcomes of a Global Silver Rush:

Surging Prices: Increased demand from millions of investors could push silver prices significantly higher.

Increased Market Volatility: Rapid price increases may lead to volatile market conditions.

Silver Mining Stocks Boom: Companies producing silver could see substantial gains.

Industrial Costs Rise: Industries reliant on silver (e.g., solar panels and electronics) could face higher production costs.

Regulatory Intervention: Governments and financial institutions may take action to stabilize the market.

Conclusion: Silver’s Future Looks Bright

Given silver’s role as an inflation hedge, its growing industrial demand, and its affordability compared to gold, there are strong fundamental reasons for its price to rise significantly.

Technically, the metal has reached its $35 target and appears to be building momentum toward higher levels. If history is any guide, a move toward $50, and even $70, is well within the realm of possibility.

For investors looking to position themselves in an asset with significant upside potential, silver presents a compelling opportunity in today’s economic landscape.

The link to a previous article on the fundamentals of silver can be found here.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  2. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

John Newell Disclaimer

As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it’s advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.

Metals Opinions
17 Mar

The push to restore semiconductor manufacturing faces a labor crisis − can the US train enough workers in time?

By Michael Moats, Missouri University of Science and Technology 

Semiconductors power nearly every aspect of modern life – cars, smartphones, medical devices and even national defense systems. These tiny but essential components make the information age possible, whether they’re supporting lifesaving hospital equipment or facilitating the latest advances in artificial intelligence.

It’s easy to take them for granted, until something goes wrong. That’s exactly what happened when the COVID-19 pandemic exposed major weaknesses in the global semiconductor supply chain. Suddenly, to name just one consequence, new vehicles couldn’t be finished because chips produced abroad weren’t being delivered. The semiconductor supply crunch disrupted entire industries and cost hundreds of billions of dollars.

The crisis underscored a hard reality: The U.S. depends heavily on foreign countries – including China, a geopolitical rival – to manufacture semiconductors. This isn’t just an economic concern; it’s widely recognized as a national security risk.

That’s why the U.S. government has taken steps to invest in semiconductor production through initiatives such as the CHIPS and Science Act, which aims to revitalize American manufacturing and was passed with bipartisan support in 2022. While President Donald Trump has criticized the CHIPS and Science Act recently, both he and his predecessor, Joe Biden, have touted their efforts to expand domestic chip manufacturing in recent years.

Yet, even with bipartisan support for new chip plants, a major challenge remains: Who will operate them?

Minding the workforce gap

The push to bring semiconductor manufacturing back to the U.S. faces a significant hurdle: a shortage of skilled workers. The semiconductor industry is expected to need 300,000 engineers by 2030 as new plants are built. Without a well-trained workforce, these efforts will fall short, and the U.S. will remain dependent on foreign suppliers.

This isn’t just a problem for the tech sector – it affects every industry that relies on semiconductors, from auto manufacturing to defense contractors. Virtually every military communication, monitoring and advanced weapon system relies on microchips. It’s not sustainable or safe for the U.S. to rely on foreign nations – especially adversaries – for the technology that powers its military.

For the U.S. to secure supply chains and maintain technological leadership, I believe it would be wise to invest in education and workforce development alongside manufacturing expansion.

Building the next generation of semiconductor engineers

Filling this labor gap will require a nationwide effort to train engineers and technicians in semiconductor research, design and fabrication. Engineering programs across the country are taking up this challenge by introducing specialized curricula that combine hands-on training with industry-focused coursework.

Future semiconductor workers will need expertise in chip design and microelectronics, materials science and process engineering, and advanced manufacturing and clean room operations. To meet this demand, it will be important for universities and colleges to work alongside industry leaders to ensure students graduate with the skills employers need. Offering hands-on experience in semiconductor fabrication, clean-room-based labs and advanced process design will be essential for preparing a workforce that’s ready to contribute from Day 1.

At Missouri University of Science of Technology, where I am the chair of the materials science and engineering department, we’re launching a multidisciplinary bachelor’s degree in semiconductor engineering this fall. Other universities across the U.S. are also expanding their semiconductor engineering options amid strong demand from both industry and students.

A historic opportunity for economic growth

Rebuilding domestic semiconductor manufacturing isn’t just about national security – it’s an economic opportunity that could benefit millions of Americans. By expanding training programs and workforce pipelines, the U.S. can create tens of thousands of high-paying jobs, strengthening the economy and reducing reliance on foreign supply chains.

And the race to secure semiconductor supply chains isn’t just about stability – it’s about innovation. The U.S. has long been a global leader in semiconductor research and development, but recent supply chain disruptions have shown the risks of allowing manufacturing to move overseas.

If the U.S. wants to remain at the forefront of technological advancement in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and next-generation communication systems, it seems clear to me it will need new workers – not just new factories – to gain control of its semiconductor production.The Conversation

About the Author:

Michael Moats, Professor of Metallurgical Engineering, Missouri University of Science and Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Opinions Stock Market News
17 Mar

China launches a plan to boost domestic consumption. Global trade tensions remain.

By JustMarkets

Despite Friday’s good growth, US indices closed the week in negative territory. On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index gained 1.65% (for the week -2.40%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 2.13% (for the week -1.16%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 2.49% (for the week -0.62%). Stocks were under pressure last week on concerns that US tariffs would dampen economic growth and corporate earnings. Last Tuesday, President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods and doubled tariffs on Chinese goods to 20% from 10%. Trump also confirmed that he will impose retaliatory tariffs against foreign countries on April 2 as planned. Trade tensions escalated on Wednesday when the European Union imposed tariffs on up to $28.3 billion worth of US goods, including soybeans, beef, and poultry, in response to US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. In addition, Canada announced 25% counter-tariffs on about $20.8 billion worth of US-made goods, such as computers and sporting goods, as well as US steel and aluminum products.

Last week, the US dollar hit new lows for the year against the Chinese yuan, Mexican peso, euro, sterling, Japanese yen, Swedish króna and Norwegian krona. The architects of the new US foreign economic policy expected the dollar’s strength to absorb some cost of US tariffs and expected some exporters to cut prices. Instead, the dollar has mostly fallen against major currencies.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened to 19.9 per US dollar in March, hitting a four-month-high, thanks to a high interest rate differential and resilient external accounts. With Banxico’s benchmark rate at 10.50%, the currency is benefiting from an attractive trade amid easing US rate expectations. In addition, the government’s calm, negotiation-oriented approach to tariff disputes has resulted in favorable concessions and minimal retaliation in key sectors such as auto and electronics.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) gained 1.86% (week ended -0.76%), the French CAC 40 (FR 40) closed 1.13% higher (week ended -1.63%), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.43% (week ended -1.93%), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 1.05% higher (week ended -0.55%) on Friday. European markets saw gains, boosted by optimism over German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s investment plan and hopes for a resolution to the situation in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the ongoing tariff war remains a serious concern.

WTI crude oil prices rose 0.9% to settle at $67.20 per barrel on Friday after a more than 1% decline in the previous session as investors continued to assess ongoing geopolitical uncertainty over the war in Ukraine. Despite Russian President Putin’s tentative support for a ceasefire, confidence in an early resolution of the situation declined. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions, including Chinese and Russian support for Iran and the expiration of the US energy sanctions license, continue to weigh on market sentiment. Macroeconomic uncertainty is also weighing on oil, with the International Energy Agency warning of a growing supply glut as an escalating trade war reduces demand and OPEC+ increases production.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.22%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.56%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.65% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.99%. Hong Kong shares rose 375 points in Monday morning trading, jumping for a second session amid growing optimism over China’s announced plan to stimulate domestic demand. Australian stocks also followed the Hang Seng’s rally.

On Sunday, China’s State Council launched a special action plan to boost domestic consumption, including raising household incomes and setting up a childcare subsidy scheme. The plan also includes measures to stabilize the stock market but does not give details on when and how this might happen. China will expand real estate income channels through stock market stabilization measures and develop more bond products suitable for individual investors. Meanwhile, traders digested good economic data, including a 4% year-on-year rise in retail sales for the first two months of 2025, the fastest pace since October, and a stronger-than-expected 5.9% increase in industrial production. However, the unemployment rate rose to a two-year high of 5.4% in February from 5.2%, exceeding market expectations of 5.1%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,638.94 +117.42 (+2.13%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,488.19 +674.62 (+1.65%)

DAX (DE40) 22,986.82 +419.68 (+1.86%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,632.33 +89.77 (+1.05%)

USD Index 103.74 −0.09 (−0.09%)

News feed for: 2025.03.17

  • China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • US Retail Sales (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
14 Mar

Escalating trade tensions triggered a risk reduction among investors

By JustMarkets 

At the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.30%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 1.39%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 1.89%. Signs of escalating trade tensions triggered risk-off, sending stock prices tumbling. President Trump has threatened to impose 200% tariffs on European wine, champagne, and other spirits if the EU doesn’t slap a tax on US whiskey. Stocks’ losses accelerated Thursday after President Trump said he would not slap tariffs on steel and aluminum that took effect this week and would not back off plans to impose sweeping retaliatory tariffs that would begin on April 2.

Weekly US initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 2,000 to 220,000, indicating a strengthening labor market versus expectations of a rise to 225,000. The February PPI report excluding food and energy came in at negative 0.1% m/m and positive 3.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of positive 0.3% m/m and 3.5% y/y. The latest PPI and CPI data from the US suggest that price pressures eased in February, giving the Fed more room to cut rates.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.15%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.64%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.14%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.02%. President Trump threatened 200% tariffs on European spirits after the EU imposed a 50% tariff on US whiskey in response to previous US duties. Geopolitical concerns also weighed on sentiment amid continued uncertainty over a potential ceasefire. The Russian president did not support the temporary ceasefire.

Silver (XAG/USD) rose to $33.50 an ounce, the highest level since late October, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid heightened tariff tensions and rising bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut following weaker-than-expected US inflation data. Meanwhile, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the recession will be “worth it” to implement Trump’s economic policies.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) rose to $4.15/MMBtu on Thursday after falling 8.3% in the previous session as investors watched supply and demand dynamics. The US utilities withdrew 62 Bcf in the week ended March 7, above the expected 50-55 Bcf. As a result, storage levels are now 27% lower than the same period last year and 11.9% below the five-year average.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.08%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.10%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.58% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.32%.

Australia’s consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to 3.6% in March from 4.6% in February, indicating that price pressures in the economy are easing. The Australian dollar came under pressure earlier this week after the US imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, affecting about $1 billion worth of Australian exports. Despite trade concerns, Australia’s Prime Minister has not imposed retaliatory tariffs against the US. Instead, the government will continue to seek an exemption, warning that retaliatory measures could increase consumer spending and lead to higher inflation.

The New Zealand dollar received support from strong manufacturing PMI data. New Zealand’s Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose in February to its highest level since August 2022, thanks to an increase in production and new orders. Meanwhile, the country’s annual food inflation rose to 2.4% in February from 2.3% in the previous month.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,521.52 −77.78 (−1.39%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,813.57 −537.36 (−1.30%)

DAX (DE40) 22,567.14 −109.27 (−0.48%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,542.56 +1.59 (+0.02%)

USD Index 103.83 +0.22 (+0.21%)

News feed for: 2025.03.14

  • UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
14 Mar

Gold poised for record highs strong demand and stable outlook

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

On Friday, the price of Gold surged to 2,983 USD per troy ounce, marking a new record high. The precious metal closed the week with a gain of over 2%, driven by a decline in risk appetite and growing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Key drivers behind Gold’s rally

The ongoing escalation of trade tensions has played a significant role in boosting Gold prices. US President Donald Trump recently threatened to impose a 200% tariff on European wines and other alcoholic beverages in retaliation for the EU’s 50% tax on US whiskey exports. This has further fuelled market uncertainty, driving investors toward safe-haven assets like Gold.

Additionally, recent US economic data, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), showed easing inflationary pressures in February. This has strengthened the case for potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, enhancing Gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.

Gold also benefits from robust demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and consistent purchases by global central banks. Notably, February’s data confirmed that China has increased its Gold reserves for the fourth consecutive month. These factors have overshadowed the influence of the US dollar on Gold prices, which currently plays a minimal role in the metal’s trajectory.

Technical Analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart of XAUUSD, the market has confidently breached the 2,940 USD level and continues its upward momentum towards 3,000 USD, which is the immediate target anticipated to be reached today. Following this, a corrective pullback to 2,940 USD (testing the level from above) is possible. Once this correction concludes, there is potential for a new growth wave targeting 3,057 USD. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains above zero and is trending sharply upward.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed the growth wave structure to the 2,940 USD level. A tight consolidation range has formed around this level, and the upward wave towards 3,000 is progressing with a strong breakout. Today, the local target of this wave at 2,990 USD is expected to be achieved, and a corrective move towards 2,957 USD is possible. Following this, further growth towards the 3,000 USD level is anticipated. Upon reaching this target, a corrective wave back to 2,940 is likely. This outlook is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below the 50 level and is trending downward toward 20.

Conclusion

Gold’s rally is supported by a combination of macroeconomic factors, including trade tensions, easing inflation, and strong central bank demand. Technically, the metal is poised to test the 3,000 USD level, with potential corrections along the way. Investors should monitor key support and resistance levels and macroeconomic developments to gauge the next phase of Gold’s movement.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
14 Mar

Week Ahead: USDJPY set for Wednesday showdown

By ForexTime 

  • Yen expected to be one of the most volatile in G10 space vs USD
  • BoJ and Fed seen holding rates, but policy hints could spark volatility
  • Over past year BoJ triggered moves of ↑ 1.4% & ↓ 1.5%
  • Over past year Fed triggered moves of ↑ 0.7% & ↓ 1.2%
  • Bloomberg FX model: USDJPY has 72% of trading within 146.26 – 151.17 over 1-week period

A flurry of major central bank meetings could present fresh trading opportunities.

The Japanese Yen is expected to be one of the most volatile G10 currencies versus the USD over the next one-week.

This could be based on the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve holding policy meetings on the same day!

Beyond central banks, top-tier economic data and global trade developments will be in focus:

Monday, 17th March 

  • CN50: China property prices, retail sales, industrial production
  • CAD: Canada housing starts, existing home sales
  • US500: US retail sales, Empire manufacturing
  • OECD report – prospects for global economy

Tuesday, 18th March

  • CAD: Canada CPI
  • GER40: Germany ZEW survey expectations
  • JP225: Japan tertiary index
  • USDInd: US housing starts, industrial production

Wednesday, 19th March 

  • CHINAH: Tencent earnings
  • EU50: Eurozone CPI
  • ZAR: South Africa retail sales, CPI
  • JPY: BoJ rate decision, industrial production, trade
  • USDInd: Fed rate decision

Thursday, 20th March 

  • AUD: Australia unemployment
  • CN50: China loan prime rates
  • ZAR: SARB rate decision
  • SEK: Riksbank rate decision 
  • CHF: SNB rate decision
  • GBP: BoE rate decision, jobless claims, unemployment
  • RUS2000: US Philadelphia Fed factory index, jobless claims

Friday, 21st  March 

  • CAD: Canada retail sales
  • EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
  • JPY: Japan CPI
  • NZD: New Zealand trade

At the time of writing, the  Yen depreciated across the board despite Japan’s largest labour union – Rengo securing a 5.46% average gain, its largest pay hike since 1991. This could be a “sell the news” scenario with prices stabilizing down the line.

Nevertheless, the Yen is the 3rd best performing G10 currency versus the dollar year-to-date. These gains are on the back of global trade fears and growing bets around the BoJ hiking rates sooner rather than later.

Looking at the weekly charts, the USDJPY is respecting a bearish channel – but support can be seen at 146.50. 

With all the above said, here is why the USDJPY is set for a big week:

    1 – Trump’s trade war

President Donald Trump’s aggressive stance on trade has roiled markets, sending investors rushing toward safe-haven assets.

Trump recently threatened a 200% tariff on European alcohol after the EU imposed tariffs on US-produced whiskey. 

  • Escalating trade tensions could boost the Japanese Yen – dragging the USDJPY lower. 
  • Signs of easing trade tensions may lift the market mood – pushing the USDJPY higher as the Yen weakens.

 

    2- BoJ rate decision

Markets widely expect the BoJ to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday 19th March. 

But if the BoJ hints at a potential hike as soon as May or in the first half of 2025 in the face of higher wages, this could move the Yen.

To be clear, traders are currently pricing in a 16% probability of a 25-basis point hike by May with this jumping to 48% by June. 

Over the past 12 months, the BoJ decision has triggered upside moves as much as 1.4% or declines of 1.5% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Note: Beyond the BoJ decision, Japan’s latest inflation print later in the week could influence BoJ hike bets – moving the Yen as a result.

  • The USDJPY could tumble if the BoJ hints that rates will be hiked in May or June.
  • Should the BoJ strike a dovish tone, this could push the USDJPY higher as the Yen weakens.

 

    3 – Fed rate decision

The Federal Reserve is seen leaving interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday, 19th March.

So, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for clues on future policy moves. Last Friday, Powell stated that the US economy was in a good place despite the elevated levels of uncertainty. However, investors remain fearful of Trump’s trade war hitting the US economy.

Traders are currently pricing in a 35% probability of a 25-basis point cut by May with a move fully priced in by June. 

Over the past 12 months, the Fed decision has triggered upside moves as much as 0.7% or declines of 1.2% in a 6-hour window post-release.

  • If Powell strikes a cautious tone towards rate hikes, the USDJPY may slip.
  • Should Powell signal higher rates down the road, this could push the USDJPY higher.

 

    4 – Technical forces

The USDJPY has shed over 1% month-to-date with prices trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA.

  • A breakout and daily close above 149.00 may signal a move toward 150.80 and 151.17 – the upper limit of the Bloomberg FX model.
  • Sustained weakness below 149.00 could trigger a selloff back toward 146.50 and 146.26 – the lower limit of the Bloomberg FX model.

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 73% chance that USDJPY will trade within the 146.26 – 151.17 range, using current levels as a base, over the next one-week period.

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Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
13 Mar

The Bank of Canada cut the interest rate as expected. The EU and Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs on the US.

By JustMarkets 

At the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.20%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.49%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) added 1.13%. Stock indices mostly rose on Wednesday, although the Dow Jones Industrials Index fell to a 6-month low. Stocks found support on Wednesday amid easing price pressures after the February US Consumer Price Index rose less than expected. The February US CPI rose by 0.2% m/m and 2.8% y/y, which was weaker than expectations of 0.3% m/m and 2.9% y/y. February CPI excluding food and energy rose by 0.2% m/m and 3.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of 0.3% m/m and 3.2% y/y. Stock gains were limited by escalating trade tensions. On Wednesday, the European Union imposed tariffs on up to $28.3 billion worth of goods from the US, including soybeans, beef, and poultry, in response to US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

The Canadian dollar is holding near 1.44 per dollar, near a one-month low of 1.45 hit on March 3, as Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs of 25 percent on $21 billion worth of US goods after Trump’s duties on steel and aluminum took effect. The move raises costs for US manufacturers and increases trade uncertainty. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 bps to 2.75%, marking a 225 bps easing from June 2024 to counter an expected slowdown in the economy. The Bank of Canada warned that the change in US tariff policy is eroding confidence in the economy and dampening domestic demand, and companies are already struggling to borrow as a weaker loonie drives up the cost of imports. Markets are predicting another rate cut before the end of the year.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.56%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.59%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.57%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.53%. The US imposed 25% tariffs on European steel and aluminum, prompting the EU to announce retaliatory tariffs on US goods, resulting in the EU announcing retaliatory duties on €26 billion worth of US goods in April. Market sentiment improved on optimism about a possible ceasefire in Ukraine after Kyiv said it was willing to accept a US-brokered proposal, and after Washington restored military aid and resumed intelligence sharing with Ukraine.

WTI crude oil prices rose more than 2% to above $67.7 a barrel on Wednesday, extending gains for a second session as US data showing strong domestic demand and easing inflation boosted market sentiment. US consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months, raising hopes for a more patient Federal Reserve. Crude oil inventories rose by a smaller-than-expected 1.5 million barrels, according to government data.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.07%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.25%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.76% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.32%.

Caution prevailed in China after the end of the ‘two sessions’, with economists warning that the 5% growth target would be difficult to achieve due to intensifying domestic and external factors, as well as Beijing’s modest pledges to boost consumption and reduce overcapacity.

Australia’s Prime Minister said Australia will not impose retaliatory tariffs against the US. Instead, the government will continue to seek an exemption, warning that retaliatory measures could increase consumer spending and lead to higher inflation. Meanwhile, Australia’s consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to 3.6% in March from 4.6% in February, indicating that price pressures in the economy are easing.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,599.30 +27.23 (+0.49%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,350.93 −82.55 (−0.20%)

DAX (DE40) 22,676.41 +347.64 (+1.56%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,540.97 +44.98 (+0.53%)

USD Index 103.58 +0.17 (+0.16%)

News feed for: 2025.03.13

  • Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
  • Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
13 Mar

EUR/USD holds onto hopes of further growth as investors assess the risks

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The EUR/USD pair is trading near 1.0887 on Thursday as investors cautiously evaluate the impact of escalating global trade tensions on the economy and consumer behaviour. Despite the uncertainty, the currency pair shows resilience, with market participants closely monitoring key developments.

Key market factors affecting EUR/USD

The primary focus remains on the ongoing global trade war, which has intensified following recent announcements by US President Donald Trump. Trump has pledged to impose additional tariffs on trading partners in response to the EU and Canada’s retaliatory measures triggered by earlier US tariffs on steel and aluminium imports.

Further adding to the uncertainty, Trump reaffirmed his commitment to imposing additional retaliatory duties scheduled for April. This has intensified concerns about potential spillover effects on global markets and economic stability.

On the economic data front, US consumer inflation figures for February relieved the currency market. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month, falling short of the expected 0.3% increase. Year-over-year, inflation eased to 2.8%, down from 3.0% in January. However, the full impact of recent tariffs is yet to materialise, leaving markets cautious about potential inflationary pressures in the coming months.

Investors are now focusing on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting next week. Market consensus suggests that the Fed will hold interest rates steady, but all eyes will be on the updated economic forecasts and any signals regarding future monetary policy. The decision could play a pivotal role in shaping the near-term trajectory of the EUR/USD pair.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, the EUR/USD pair recently completed a growth wave, reaching a high of 1.0944. Currently, the market is consolidating near the top of this wave. A downward breakout from this range is anticipated, potentially initiating the first wave of decline toward the 1.0533 level. Following this, a corrective rebound to 1.0740 could occur. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains above zero but is trending downward, signalling weakening momentum.

On the H1 chart, the pair is forming a consolidation range around 1.0830, extending up to 1.0944. A decline towards the lower boundary of this range is expected, potentially leading to a breakout and a drop to 1.0750. A subsequent retest of 1.0830 (from below) may follow before a further decline to 1.0533. The Stochastic oscillator reinforces this bearish outlook, with its signal line below the 50 mark and trending downward toward 20.

 

Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair remains precarious as investors navigate the dual challenges of escalating trade tensions and impending central bank decisions. While technical indicators point to a bearish near-term outlook, market sentiment remains highly sensitive to trade negotiations and macroeconomic data developments. Traders should remain alert to potential volatility and be prepared to adapt their strategies as new information emerges.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
12 Mar

The uncertainty of the new US administration’s tariff policy negatively affects investor sentiment

By JustMarkets

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.14%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.76%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 0.28%. On Tuesday, stocks came under pressure after President Trump announced he would raise tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada to 50% from 25% starting Wednesday in response to Ontario’s imposition of a 25% export tariff on US-sourced electricity. However, stocks partially recovered when Ontario Premier Ford said he would suspend the 25 percent tariff on electricity to the US when US Commerce Secretary Lutnick agreed to meet with him in Washington on Thursday. President Trump has also said he is considering eliminating the 50 percent tariffs he initially imposed on Canada.

Tuesday’s economic news in the US showed strength in the labor market, lending support to stocks after the January JOLTS Job Openings Index rose 232,000 to 7.74 million, beating expectations of no change at 7.60 million.

The Mexican peso remained stable at 20.35 in March. The peso was supported by high interest rates in Mexico, which support carry trade flows, as well as a solid external balance, including a trade surplus and strong remittances. However, weak domestic data, including a drop in consumer confidence and a 0.6% contraction in Q4 2024 GDP — the sharpest since 2021 — has reinforced expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of Mexico on March 27, which could undermine the peso’s attractiveness from a yield perspective.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) rose more than 4% on Tuesday, recovering more than half of Monday’s losses on disappointment that President Trump’s new digital assets’ reserve will only be replenished with digital assets already owned by the government, rather than new digital assets acquired through seizures.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.29%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.31%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.57%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 1.21%. European stocks lost ground on Tuesday, extending their decline from the previous session to a one-month low, as the impact of a slowing US economy outweighed support from increased public spending by Eurozone governments. Companies more exposed to global discretionary demand suffered losses, with Inditex, Ferrari, and L’Oreal falling 1-2%. On the other hand, industrial giants continued to rise on the back of government promises to increase infrastructure and military investment. Schneider, Safran, Airbus added more than 0.6%, while Rheinmetall and Leonardo rose more than 4%, extending momentum for defense contractors. Automakers were also in focus, with Volkswagen shares rising 2% despite aggressive profit cuts and an uncertain future due to US tariffs as investors showed less pessimism than expected.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell 0.64%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.47%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.01% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.91%.

Japan’s largest companies have agreed to significant wage increases for the third consecutive year to help workers cope with rising inflation and ease labor shortages. Labor union group Rengo is pushing for a 6.09% average wage increase this year, the highest demand in 32 years. Broad wage growth is needed for the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates from 0.5% and for the government to stimulate consumer spending amid stagnant inflation-adjusted wages.

China kept its economic growth target at “around 5%” while setting a record-high fiscal deficit of 4% of GDP. It also lowered its consumer inflation target to 2% and set a target to keep urban unemployment at 5.5%. The 2025 budget signals an increase in public spending to support economic growth.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,572.07 −42.49 (−0.76%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,433.48 −478.23 (−1.14%)

DAX (DE40) 22,328.77 −292.18 (−1.29%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,495.99 −104.23 (−1.21%)

USD Index 103.42 −0.42 (−0.40%)

News feed for: 2025.03.12

  • Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 10:45 (GMT+2);
  • Indian Inflation Rate (m/m) at 12:30 (GMT+2);
  • US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 15:45 (GMT+2);
  • Canada BoC Rate Statement at 15:45 (GMT+2);
  • Canada BoC Press Conference at 16:30 (GMT+2);
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
12 Mar

Japanese yen declines: temporary pause amid strong long-term outlook

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

USD/JPY climbed to 148.19 on Wednesday, marking its second consecutive session of gains after touching a low of 146.53, its weakest level since 4 October 2024. While this movement partly resembles a technical rebound, broader market conditions appear to shift, influencing the yen’s trajectory.

Key market factors affecting USD/JPY

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that it is natural for bond yields to reflect market expectations regarding short-term interest rates. He downplayed the significance of any divergence between the BoJ’s stance and market sentiment.

Despite this, financial markets continue to bet on the BoJ sticking to its interest rate hike strategy for 2025. Japan’s latest inflation data further strengthens this view.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2025 surged to 4.0%, the highest since January 2023. The primary driver was food prices, which spiked 7.8% y/y, while rising electricity and gas prices also contributed to overall inflation. Meanwhile, core inflation hit a 19-month high at 3.2%.

Given this inflationary environment, the BoJ remains pressured to maintain its tightening cycle, a strong supporting factor for the yen over the longer term.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is developing a growth wave targeting 148.38. After reaching this level, a correction towards 147.34 may follow, outlining the consolidation range at the recent lows. If the price breaks upwards, the pair could extend gains towards 150.20, the next key resistance level. A correction to 148.38 could then occur. The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line below zero but pointing strictly upwards, indicating bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the pair is forming a growth wave towards 148.38, marking the first key target. A potential pullback to 147.34 may follow before a renewed push higher towards 149.40, the next local target. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and trending upwards, suggesting continued buying pressure.

Conclusion

 

USD/JPY is experiencing a short-term rebound, with market sentiment driving the pair higher amid shifting rate expectations. However, the BoJ’s stance and Japan’s strong inflation figures provide longer-term support for the yen, keeping the broader outlook mixed.

In the near term, 148.38 remains a key resistance level, with the potential for further gains towards 150.20 if bullish momentum persists. A corrective pullback to 147.34 could provide a buying opportunity before the next upward wave towards 149.40. Market participants will closely watch economic developments and BoJ policy signals to determine the yen’s next move.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
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