InvestMacro

On Wednesday, the US stock indices closed in the red. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.63%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 1.36%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 1.46%. The FOMC’s decision to keep interest rates in the 3.5-3.75% range was accompanied by a “hawkish” comment about serious pro‑inflationary risks caused by the war in Iran and the threat of new tariffs. The regulator’s concerns were confirmed by the aggressively high industrial inflation (PPI) figure published earlier the same day, which led most committee members to rule out the possibility of rate cuts this year. Investors reacted by pushing Treasury yields higher, which put pressure on all market sectors. The worst performance came from the financial sector and consumer staples: payment system giants Visa and Mastercard plunged 3.1% and 3.7%, respectively, while retailers Walmart and B&G lost more than 2.5% amid fears of declining consumer purchasing power due to high energy costs.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) fell to 1.37 per US dollar, reaching its lowest level in the past two months. In March, the BoC predictably kept its key rate unchanged, synchronizing its actions with the US Fed’s “hawkish pause.” The regulator emphasized that the war with Iran creates two‑sided risks: on one hand, it triggers an inflationary shock through fuel prices; on the other, it threatens to slow global economic growth. With the Strait of Hormuz paralyzed, the Canadian dollar remains in a unique “safe haven” position among commodity currencies, but its further recovery toward 1.35 will depend directly on whether the commodity factor outweighs Washington’s tight monetary policy in the coming weeks.

European markets showed a decline. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.96%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed slightly higher at 0.06%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.29%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.94%. The main pressure factor was another spike in natural gas prices caused by the escalation in the Persian Gulf. Given that the Fed has already confirmed its “hawkish” stance, tomorrow’s meetings of European regulators will be a moment of truth: will they acknowledge the inevitability of a prolonged period of high rates due to the energy crisis, or will they attempt to soften their rhetoric to support fading economic growth?

Silver prices (XAG) fell to $76.9 per ounce, pressured by the Fed’s updated expectations. The FOMC’s decision to keep rates unchanged and project only one rate cut this year sharply increased the alternative cost of holding the metal. Investors were particularly alarmed by the upward revision of the core PCE inflation prediction: the regulator made it clear that it is prepared to stick to a “higher for longer” policy to contain the consequences of the structural energy shock caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on Iranian oil fields.

WTI crude oil showed a sharp intraday reversal, rising above $97.3 per barrel amid a critical escalation in the Persian Gulf. Reports of strikes on Iran’s gas giant South Pars and the death of Iran’s intelligence minister Esmail Khatib outweighed all attempts by Washington to stabilize the market, including the temporary suspension of the Jones Act and a 6.2‑million‑barrel increase in US commercial crude inventories. Even the Fed’s “hawkish” decision to keep rates in the 3.5-3.75% range only briefly cooled the bulls, as the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz created a structural deficit that cannot be quickly offset by strategic reserves or increased domestic refining.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.87%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped 0.14%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.61%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.31%.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar (AUD) showed a corrective rise to 0.704 per US dollar, recovering part of its losses after yesterday’s decline. The fresh labor market report presented investors with a mixed but generally constructive picture: an explosive increase in employment by 48,900 (vs. the prognosis of 20,000) confirmed the economy’s strong resilience, but an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% slightly cooled the hawks’ enthusiasm. Nevertheless, the RBA still considers the labor market historically strong, leaving the door open for further policy tightening.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) exhibited volatility. Investors faced conflicting signals: extremely weak GDP data for the December quarter (growth of only 0.2% vs. the expected 0.4%) point to economic fragility, while inflationary risks due to the war in Iran are forcing the market to revise rate anticipation. Although annual GDP growth reached 1.3%, it fell short of the target 1.7%, confirming that domestic consumption in New Zealand remains subdued.

On Tuesday, the US stock indices closed in the green zone, continuing to recover after falling to four‑month lows. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.10%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.25%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.47%. Investors remain optimistic, believing that the energy shock in the Persian Gulf will not turn into prolonged stagflation, despite ongoing strikes on Iranian infrastructure. The main driver of the day was the asset‑management sector: shares of KKR, Blackstone, and BlackRock jumped by 3-5% amid a reassessment of default risks in the technology sector, which restored confidence in major private lenders.

The upcoming FOMC meeting promises to become a true turning point for the market, as it takes place against the backdrop of an important leadership change at the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Leading investment banks expect the benchmark rate to remain unchanged in the current range of 3.50-3.75%. However, all attention will be focused on the updated “dot plot” prognosis. Given that core inflation remains around 3% and uncertainty persists regarding the end of Jerome Powell’s term, the Fed will likely take a “hawkish pause,” signaling its readiness to keep rates high for longer than markets expected at the beginning of the year.

On Monday, European markets showed a confident rebound. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.71%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.49%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.93%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.83%.
On Tuesday, WTI oil prices rose by more than 2%, climbing to 96 dollars per barrel and partially recovering the previous day’s decline. The market reacted instantly to a new wave of escalation: reports of Israel eliminating high‑ranking Iranian security officials were accompanied by massive Tehran attacks on the energy infrastructure of US allies. The shutdown of the “Shah” gas giant in the UAE, strikes on Iraqi fields, and renewed blockades of terminals in Fujairah intensified fears that supply shortages will become chronic as the war enters its third and most destructive phase. Despite the start of commodity interventions from US strategic reserves, the overall supply picture remains critical: the Strait of Hormuz is effectively paralyzed, and oil prices have surged more than 40% since the beginning of the conflict.

Asian markets also rose mostly yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.09%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped by 0.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.13%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.36%. The internal driver was strong macroeconomic data from China for the first two months of the year: industrial production grew by 6.3%, and retail sales by 2.8%, exceeding analysts’ prognoses and supporting the real estate and financial sectors.

On Wednesday, the Australian dollar (AUD) consolidated above 0.701 per US dollar, holding near multi‑year highs. A direct warning from Michele Bullock that current policy may still be insufficiently tight to suppress inflation forced markets to price in another rate hike in May and a high probability of an additional move in August. Against the backdrop of domestic monetary tightening, the Australian dollar also benefits from its role as a “commodity currency” during an energy crisis. Intensifying Iranian attacks on regional oil infrastructure and the refusal of US allies to support Donald Trump’s call for military convoy protection of ships are keeping commodity prices high, which traditionally benefits Australia’s economy.

At its March 2026 meeting, Bank Indonesia (BI) kept the key interest rate at 4.75%, fully in line with analysts’ expectations. The regulator found itself in a difficult position: on one hand, the economy is showing impressive growth (GDP in Q4 2025 accelerated to 5.39%), while on the other, inflation in February made a sharp jump to 4.76%, exceeding the upper boundary of the target range (2.5% ±1%). Despite current volatility and the global energy shock, the central bank maintains optimistic GDP growth projections for 2026 in the range of 4.9-5.7%. In the coming months, market attention will focus on whether Bank Indonesia will take additional steps to intervene in support of the rupiah if the psychological level of 17,000 per dollar is breached.

On Monday, the US equity markets closed higher. By the end of the session, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.83%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 1.01%. The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) finished up 1.13%. The main catalyst for optimism was a sharp decline in WTI crude prices to 93.5 dollars per barrel after the successful passage of the first tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, easing fears of long‑term stagflation. Lower energy pressure allowed 10‑year Treasury yields to fall to 4.22%, restoring investor interest in the technology and banking sectors. Despite the positive sentiment, trading volumes remained moderate as the market stayed cautious ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting and further news on the formation of an international maritime coalition in the Persian Gulf.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) is showing a confident recovery, rising above 1.37 per US dollar following encouraging inflation data. In February 2026, Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 1.8% year‑over‑year, below expectations (1.9%) and returning the indicator to the Bank of Canada’s target range. The transportation and housing sectors contributed most to the disinflationary trend, while core inflation metrics fell to four‑year lows, giving the regulator more room for maneuver amid a recent sharp drop in employment by 84,000 and a rise in unemployment to 6.7%. Ahead of the March 18 rate decision, markets are pricing in nearly a 100% probability that the BoC will keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, though the sharp slowdown in inflation is prompting investors to reassess the timing of potential future easing.

The Mexican peso strengthened to 17.7 per US dollar, becoming one of the beneficiaries of the localized de‑escalation in the Middle East. The decline in geopolitical risk premium followed statements from key US allies, including Japan and Australia, expressing reluctance to enter the active phase of the maritime coalition. This reduced demand for the US dollar as a safe‑haven asset, allowing emerging‑market currencies to recover part of their losses amid a general decline in Treasury yields. With inflation accelerating, the market has fully priced out the possibility of a rate cut at the Bank of Mexico’s March 26 meeting. Keeping the rate at 7.00%, while the Fed is expected to ease or pause, supports the attractiveness of carry‑trade strategies.

European markets posted a solid rebound, breaking a three‑day losing streak. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.50%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.31%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.18%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended up 0.55%. Investors welcomed news that Indian LNG tankers successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The event was interpreted as a sign of Tehran’s willingness to allow selective diplomatic exemptions from the blockade, slightly reducing the risk premium in oil prices and easing inflation concerns in Europe.

In the financial sector, the main story was UniCredit’s aggressive 35‑billion‑euro bid to acquire Germany’s Commerzbank. Despite immediate resistance from the German government, which holds a stake in the bank, Commerzbank shares surged 8.5%, while UniCredit added 0.5%, raising its stake in the German asset to 26%. Other heavyweights also supported the positive momentum: insurance giant Allianz and Deutsche Bank gained 1.5% amid bond‑market stabilization.
WTI crude prices fell more than 3%, settling at 95.3 dollars per barrel. The decline interrupted a powerful three‑day rally during which prices had surged 17.4%. The correction was triggered by early signs of partial restoration of shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz: over the weekend, the Pakistani tanker and two LNG carriers successfully passed through the high‑risk zone. Reports that the US allowed transit for Iranian tankers and that India is negotiating passage for six more vessels gave the market hope that a full blockade may be avoided. Nevertheless, the situation remains critical, marked by the largest supply disruption in history: exports through the strait have fallen from a pre‑war 20 million barrels per day to just a few million. A new drone attack on the port of Fujairah in the UAE again halted Murban crude shipments, while ongoing Iranian strikes on Gulf infrastructure forced airlines to suspend flights to Dubai.

Silver prices stabilized around 80 dollars per ounce, reacting to the local easing in the energy market. The decline in WTI crude to 95 dollars per barrel and the successful passage of several tankers through the Strait of Hormuz reduced inflation fears, prompting speculative capital to exit precious metals. Additional pressure comes from expectations of a hawkish Fed decision this week: maintaining high interest rates increases the opportunity cost of holding metals, pushing investors toward the dollar and bonds amid falling yields.

Asian markets also traded without a unified direction. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.13%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped with 0.76%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.45%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed down 0.39%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened to 0.71 per US dollar following the RBA hawkish decision. The regulator raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1%, marking a second consecutive hike and underscoring Michelle Bullock’s determination to combat inflationary pressures driven by the Middle East conflict and the spike in fuel prices. The move fully offset a significant portion of last year’s easing cycle, returning borrowing costs to levels last seen more than a year ago. The “aussie” is also supported by persistent labor‑market tightness and the RBA leadership’s hawkish stance, which leaves the door open for further tightening in May.

On Friday, trading on the US stock market ended with a decline. The Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.26% (-0.75% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) dropped 0.61% (-0.30% for the week). The tech-heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 0.93% (-0.15% for the week). The US stock market ended the second week of March 2026 in the red, recording its third consecutive week of losses due to a sharp escalation of the military conflict with Iran. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s decision to launch massive strikes on Iranian facilities in response to attacks in the Persian Gulf effectively confirmed the war’s transition into a protracted phase, triggering a flight of capital toward the dollar and safe-haven assets. The situation is exacerbated by the unresolved blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which forces investors to price in a global stagflation scenario in which high energy prices coincide with slowing economic growth. The most painful blow fell on the technology sector and companies with high debt loads, sensitive to rising bond yields. Adobe shares plummeted 7.6% following a disappointing prognosis and the sudden resignation of its CEO, which served as a catalyst for a sell-off in the software industry, affecting even market favorites like Palantir and Meta.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) is showing notable weakness, consolidating at the 1.381 level against the US dollar. This decline is driven by a combination of deeply disappointing domestic data and the global dominance of the US currency. The fresh February labor market report for Canada shocked investors: the economy lost 84,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate jumped to 6.7%. The situation was aggravated by a slump in the manufacturing sector, where January sales crashed by 3% (to C$68.7 billion) – the worst result in nine months, confirming a serious cooling of the economy. While the Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its rate at 2.25% at its March 18 meeting to contain inflation, the widening yield gap with US treasuries continues to pull the Canadian currency down.

On Friday, European stock markets closed in the red, recording bond yield growth to their highest levels in 15 years amid the prolonged energy crisis. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.60% (+2.00% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.04% (+1.16% for the week), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.47% (+2.95% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 1.24% (-5.33% for the week). Investors have begun pricing in a scenario of prolonged stagflation: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the war with Iran continue to drive up energy prices, forcing the ECB to consider the possibility of further rate hikes. The European banking sector also found itself at the center of the sell-off, losing a significant portion of its capitalization due to private credit risks and deteriorating divination for net interest margins. The week’s laggards included Deutsche Bank, which collapsed to a nine-month low, and UniCredit, whose quotes reached levels last seen in late 2024.

On Monday, Platinum quotes (XPT) strengthened at the $2,100 per ounce level, showing resilience amid volatility in the precious metals sector. This positive trend is supported by a chronic supply deficit, which the WPIC predicts will persist for the fourth consecutive year. Although the deficit is expected to narrow slightly to 240,000 ounces in 2026, total above-ground stocks continue to deplete and could fall to critical levels by the end of the year.

WTI crude oil prices consolidated above $99 per barrel, briefly peaking at $102.40. The market is reeling as the conflict enters its third week: after US forces launched massive strikes on military targets on Kharg Island during Operation “Epic Fury,” traders are seriously concerned about the safety of the region’s energy infrastructure. Although the recent strikes targeted only mine and missile warehouses, President Donald Trump explicitly warned that the island’s oil terminals, through which 90% of Iranian exports pass, will be the next target if Tehran does not end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

By mid-March 2026, a turning point emerged in the US gas market: Henry Hub natural gas prices fell below $3.15 per MMBtu, losing about 3% of their value. Despite the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions in Qatari LNG supplies, domestic factors took precedence – expectations of warm spring weather sharply reduced heating demand, and the weekly EIA report showed a storage withdrawal of only 38 billion cubic feet, significantly lower than expected. Fundamental pressure on prices is also exerted by record domestic production, which reached a historic high of 118.5 billion cubic feet per day, allowing the US to compensate for the global market deficit without compromising its own reserves.

Asian markets also partially recovered last week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 3.04% over the trading week, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped at 2.64%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) climbed up 1.82%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.20% over 5 days.
On Monday, the offshore yuan (CNY) showed a weak attempt at stabilization, rising to the 6.901 mark against the US dollar. This slight increase broke last week’s prolonged decline and was the market’s reaction to an unexpectedly strong block of macroeconomic data from the PRC for January-February. Faster-than-prediction growth in industrial production and retail sales, along with a 1.8% rise in fixed-asset investment, created a short-term foundation for the national currency, confirming the resilience of China’s manufacturing sector against external shocks.

On Thursday, the American market was gripped by panic amid a sharp spike in Brent crude above $100 per barrel. By the end of the trading session, the Dow Jones Index (US30) declined by 1.56%. The S&P500 Index (US500) fell by 1.52%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) dropped by 1.78%. The trigger was the harsh statements made by Iran’s new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, regarding an indefinite blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which completely negated the effect of record commodity interventions by the IEA and forced investors to prepare for a prolonged energy crisis. An additional blow to sentiment was dealt by the financial sector following a 4.1% collapse in Morgan Stanley shares due to a freeze on payments in private credit funds, which intensified fears of a systemic liquidity crisis.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened to the level of 1.365 per US dollar, as the global flight of investors into safe-haven assets outweighed the benefit from the jump in WTI oil prices above $100 per barrel. Domestic pressure on the currency intensified after data showed an increase in Canadian unemployment to 6.8% in February, indicating the labor market’s inability to absorb the influx of new labor. Nevertheless, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is likely to maintain the rate at 2.25% at the meeting on March 18.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to 17.83 per dollar, finding itself under double pressure: the flight of investors into safe-haven assets due to Iran’s threats to block the Strait of Hormuz and an unexpected jump in domestic inflation. In February, Mexico’s annual consumer price figure reached 4.02%, which, for the first time in a long period, took inflation outside the central bank’s target range (3% ±1%) and practically nullified the chances for an interest rate cut at the upcoming March meeting. Despite the fact that rising oil prices traditionally support Mexico’s budget revenues, the peso remains extremely vulnerable to geopolitical risk and potential trade tariffs, forcing the Bank of Mexico to maintain a “hawkish” pause and keep the rate at 7.00% to stabilize the currency.

European stock markets continued their decline amid the harsh statements of Iran’s new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who in his first official message called for the closure of US military bases in the region and confirmed the indefinite blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The German DAX (DE40) decreased by 0.21%, the French CAC 40 (FR 40) closed down by 0.71%, the Spanish IBEX 35 index (ES35) fell by 1.22%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at a negative 0.47%. Geopolitical tension triggered a sell-off in the banking sector: Deutsche Bank collapsed by 5.4% due to concerns about risks in the 26 billion euro private credit segment and possible legal costs, while Commerzbank shares lost 3.9%. UniCredit and BNP Paribas fell by nearly 4%.

WTI oil futures came close to the $97 per barrel mark, while the North Sea Brent blend settled above $101. The market switched to “war panic” mode after the first official address by Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei: he confirmed that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is Tehran’s strategic priority and will be maintained until the full withdrawal of American bases from the region. The situation was exacerbated by nighttime attacks by Iranian speedboats (IRGC) on the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker “Safe Sia,” which completely paralyzed maritime logistics in the Persian Gulf. The IEA officially recognized the current crisis as the largest supply disruption in history, estimating the drop in global supply in March at 8-10 million barrels per day. Due to the physical impossibility of exporting oil and the overflowing of storage facilities, Persian Gulf countries began a large-scale shutdown of wells, effectively removing 20% of global trade from the market.

Henry Hub natural gas prices (XNG) broke the $3.2 per million BTU mark, reaching a monthly high amid critical disruptions in global supplies. The shutdown of QatarEnergy plants, which provide 20% of the world’s LNG market, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz forced Asian and European consumers to urgently switch to American fuel, leading to a sharp increase in export demand. Despite the global rally, the US domestic market demonstrates restraint: according to the EIA, during the first week of March, inventories decreased by only 28 billion cubic feet, which was less than expectations due to warm weather and record production levels (about 110 billion cubic feet per day). Nevertheless, the close link of the American hub to world prices under the conditions of the Middle East war keeps quotes at a high level, creating the prerequisites for further growth.

Asian markets also followed the general downward trend. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.04% during the trading session, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.35%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.70%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 1.31%.

On Friday, the offshore yuan (CNY) rate fell to 6.88 per dollar, reacting to a new wave of trade pressure from the US. The Trump administration initiated Section 301(b) investigations against China and a number of other countries, accusing them of using forced labor and creating excess production capacity. These measures are seen by the market as an attempt by Washington to restore tariff pressure leverage after the US Supreme Court previously limited the president’s powers to introduce duties through the IEEPA law. The situation is heating up amid preparations for the critically important summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in Beijing, scheduled for the end of March. Despite strong export data from China (growth of 21.8% for January-February), the currency remains extremely sensitive to threats of new 15% tariffs, which could be introduced based on the results of current investigations as early as summer.