By Analytical Department RoboForex
Gold prices fell to 5,023 USD per ounce on Monday, extending losses after two consecutive weeks of decline. Pressure on the market persists amid rising oil prices, with the situation becoming more problematic following a US strike on Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal – one of the country’s key export hubs.
The attack prompted retaliation from Tehran, with Iran striking Israel and energy infrastructure in several Arab nations. These developments have intensified concerns about global supply stability.
The military confrontation between the US, Israel, and Iran has entered its third week with no signs of resolution. Volatility across financial markets remains elevated.
Rising energy prices are increasing inflation risks and reducing the likelihood of imminent monetary policy easing. Against this backdrop, gold faces pressure, as higher interest rates diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its interest rate this week. Monetary policy decisions are also anticipated from numerous other central banks, including those in the Eurozone, the UK, Japan, Switzerland, Australia, Canada, China, Brazil, and Russia.
Free Reports:
Download Our Metatrader 4 Indicators – Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter
Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market formed a consolidation range around the 5,092 USD level. It has now broken downwards, likely continuing the correction towards 4,953 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current momentum, with its signal line below the centre line and pointing sharply downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market has broken below the 5,035 USD level and is forming a wave towards 4,953 USD. Looking ahead, a corrective growth wave towards 5,200 USD is possible, with potential for the trend to extend to 5,412 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports the short-term bearish scenario, with its signal line remaining above the 50 level and under pressure to decline towards level 20.
Conclusion
Gold continues to face headwinds as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drive oil prices higher, reinforcing inflation concerns and delaying expectations for Fed rate cuts. The third week of military confrontation shows no signs of abating, keeping markets on edge. With the Federal Reserve widely expected to hold rates steady this week, and technical indicators pointing to further downside, gold’s immediate trajectory appears vulnerable. A break below key support could accelerate losses towards 4,953 USD, though dovish surprises from central bank meetings this week might offer temporary relief.
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
- Oil prices fall back to pre‑war levels. Silver drops to a 7‑month low Jun 25, 2026
- Gold Falls to an Eight-Month Low: This May Not Be the Bottom Jun 25, 2026
- Stock indices came under heavy selling pressure amid growing skepticism about AI investments Jun 24, 2026
- The Pound Is Pressured Not by Politics, but by a Strong US Dollar Jun 24, 2026
- Global crude oil prices continued to decline. The AUD/USD exchange rate hit an 11‑week low Jun 23, 2026
- EUR/USD Remains Under Sellers’ Control as the Dollar Stays Strong Jun 23, 2026
- Gold Falls for the Third Consecutive Week: Is There Still Upside Potential? Jun 22, 2026
- Bank Indonesia raised its interest rate. Norges Bank and the SNB left rates unchanged Jun 19, 2026
- EUR/USD Loses Ground as Market Sentiment Favours the US Dollar Jun 19, 2026
- GBPUSD Awaits Bank of England Meeting Near April Lows Jun 18, 2026
