Stock Market News

Archive for Stock Market News – Page 9

The German index has hit an all-time high. China sees rising consumer inflation

On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index gained 0.32% (for the week +1.94%), while the S&P 500 (US500) Index gained 0.16% (for the week +1.56%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.03% (for the week +0.82%).

On Friday, several FOMC officials gave their comments on plans. Fed Chair Michelle Bowman said that the Fed needs to maintain confidence in inflation by moving cautiously and deliberately toward our 2% target. She said the Fed needs to keep rates unchanged for a while longer. In addition, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told Reuters in an interview that he expects only one 25 bps rate cut this year, which will come at the end of the year. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said it was too early to consider a rate cut. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed is waiting to see if inflation slows. He also said he did not rule out the need for another rate hike, although he noted that the bar would be high for such a decision. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who takes a less hawkish view, said there is little evidence that inflation has stalled at 3%.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary May Consumer Sentiment Index fell 9.8 points to a 6-month low of 67.4, weaker than market expectations. At the same time, US consumers’ inflation expectations rose. The expected inflation indicator from the University of Michigan for May rose by 0.3 points to 3.5% from April’s 3.2% and was stronger than expectations of an unchanged 3.2%. In addition, the May 5–10-year inflation expectations indicator rose to 3.1% from April’s 3.0%.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.46% (for the week +4.29%), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed Friday up 0.38% (for the week +3.05%), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.50% (for the week +2.09%), the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.63% (for the week +3.20%).

The DAX (DE40) index gained nearly 0.5% on Friday to close at a record high of 18,773, extending its weekly gain to 4.3% as investors remain optimistic that major central banks will soon begin cutting interest rates. Minutes from the ECB’s latest meeting coincided with the current view that the Central Bank should cut rates in June as the cycle’s governor agreed that inflation is approaching the target faster. Positive corporate developments also boosted sentiment. Siemens shares jumped by 2.3%, closing at an all-time high among the leaders.

WTI crude oil prices fell below $78 a barrel on Monday, extending losses from the previous session as uncertainty over demand pressured the market. Oil prices fell more than 1% on Friday as US Federal Reserve officials signaled that interest rates could remain elevated for a long time, dampening growth and fuel demand in the world’s top oil consumer. Meanwhile, investors are looking ahead to the upcoming OPEC meeting in early June, where the group is expected to extend supply cuts for the year’s second half.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.59%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.32% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 2.57% for the week, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.57%.

China’s annualized inflation rate for April 2024 rose to 0.3% compared to market estimates and March’s 0.1%. This was the third consecutive month of rising consumer inflation amid a continued recovery in domestic demand despite a fragile economic recovery. On the other hand, producer prices in China fell to 2.5% y/y in April 2024, compared to market forecasts of a 2.3% y/y drop following a 2.8% y/y decline in March. The figure marked the 19th consecutive month of factory price declines, underscoring continued economic uncertainty despite numerous support measures from the government. The offshore yuan depreciated around 7.24 per dollar, reacting to key economic data from China.

The NAB Australia Business Confidence Index for April 2024 stood at 1, unchanged for the second consecutive month and below its long-term average. Weak sentiment in retail, wholesale trade, and mining offset leisure and personal services, construction, and manufacturing improvements.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,222.68 +8.60 (+0.16%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,512.84 +125.08 (+0.32%)

DAX (DE40) 18,772.85 +86.25 (+0.46%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,433.76 +52.41 (+0.63%)

USD Index 105.31 +0.09 (+0.09%)

Important events today:

– Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– New Zealand Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 19:45 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Stock Market News

11 May

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by DowJones & Russell 2000

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones & Russell 2000

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the DowJones-Mini (3,466 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (2,289 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (1,633 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were S&P500-Mini (-52,828 contracts), the VIX (-16,446 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,851 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-1,616 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (74 percent) and the VIX (73 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (63 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (46 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (73.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (90.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (63.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (71.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (74.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (68.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (46.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (43.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (58.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (56.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (51.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (51.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (54.9 percent)

S&P500-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (24 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (18 percent) and the VIX (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-18 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-12 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (5.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (24.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (23.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (35.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-18.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-28.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (17.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-13.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-11.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-19.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (-7.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-3.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-6.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-3.6 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -38,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	42.5	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.0	32.2	8.1
– Net Position:	-38,879	41,509	-2,630
– Gross Longs:	98,258	171,486	30,089
– Gross Shorts:	137,137	129,977	32,719
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.0	25.1	83.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	-2.4	-14.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -9,695 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -52,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	70.7	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	75.4	8.6
– Net Position:	-9,695	-95,129	104,824
– Gross Longs:	262,778	1,436,696	280,192
– Gross Shorts:	272,473	1,531,825	175,368
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.3	26.8	78.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.8	-23.4	4.0

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 8,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	61.5	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	73.2	12.5
– Net Position:	8,664	-10,847	2,183
– Gross Longs:	19,305	57,061	13,773
– Gross Shorts:	10,641	67,908	11,590
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.4	22.5	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	19.4	-10.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,405 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,772 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	52.8	17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	57.4	14.7
– Net Position:	4,405	-10,633	6,228
– Gross Longs:	65,234	124,251	40,762
– Gross Shorts:	60,829	134,884	34,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.0	40.8	85.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-10.5	-4.8

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -38,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	76.0	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	69.2	4.9
– Net Position:	-38,000	31,638	6,362
– Gross Longs:	72,277	353,891	29,050
– Gross Shorts:	110,277	322,253	22,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.1	40.8	50.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	12.8	-12.0

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	66.6	24.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	56.5	13.1
– Net Position:	-3,407	1,621	1,786
– Gross Longs:	1,465	10,675	3,885
– Gross Shorts:	4,872	9,054	2,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.1	40.9	66.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	10.3	-12.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,145 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	90.5	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	88.5	1.6
– Net Position:	-13,996	7,912	6,084
– Gross Longs:	24,945	373,543	12,596
– Gross Shorts:	38,941	365,631	6,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.9	45.2	47.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	5.5	3.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

07 May

Is Boeing (BA) a Recovery Play? Evaluating Upside Potential and Risks

By Ino.com

The Boeing Company (BA), a stalwart in aircraft manufacturing and services, has faced a cascade of challenges so far this year. Just as the dust was settling on its mid-air blowout incident in January, another report emerged of a plane having mechanical failures, though this one is somewhat different from the reports we’ve already heard.

This time, it’s a Delta flight from New York to Los Angeles, reporting a problem with the emergency slide on the right wing and a strange sound. While this isn’t good news for Boeing, given that the plane is quite old (flying since 1990), it’s not expected to cause too much trouble either.

Now, let’s evaluate the upside potential and risks associated with investing in BA, considering factors like financials, growth prospects, valuation, and industry dynamics.

A Tumultuous Start to 2024

Boeing and its aircraft manufacturer have faced significant media attention since the start of 2024, with a series of incidents prompting investigations. In January, an Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 MAX 9 had to make an emergency landing in Portland, Oregon, because a part of the plane’s fuselage blew out.

Although there were no casualties, the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) investigation revealed that the door was not properly secured due to missing bolts. As a result, it led to a grounding of its 737-9 MAX fleet, increased scrutiny of the plane maker’s 737 production and safety processes, and decreased overall plane production.

Later in January, an ANA (All Nippon Airways) Boeing 737-800 had to return to Japan after a crack was found on its cockpit window during flight.

On February 21, a United Airlines Boeing 757-200 made an emergency landing in Denver due to wing damage. Furthermore, in March, a United Airlines Boeing 777-200 had to land in Los Angeles after a tire fell off following take-off, damaging vehicles below.

Other incidents include a brief rudder control failure on a Boeing 737 Max in New Jersey, a United Airlines Boeing 737 MAX 8 going off the taxiway in Houston, and a Boeing 737 in Medford, Oregon, being found missing a panel.

Further, on March 18, an Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 had a cracked windshield upon landing in Portland.

Can Boeing Be Trusted Again?

Such incidents have dealt a significant blow to the company, raising concerns about BA’s approach of prioritizing profits over safety. Particularly, the Alaska Airlines incident led to tighter regulatory scrutiny, financial implications, and demands for compensation, potentially hampering Boeing’s growth trajectory.

However, the company has taken steps to improve quality, including expanding inspections, changing how work is performed, increasing training, and soliciting more feedback from employees.

“We are absolutely committed to doing everything we can to make certain our regulators, customers, employees and the flying public are 100 percent confident in Boeing,” Dave Calhoun, Boeing’s chief executive officer, said in a letter to employees last week.

Moreover, the company is also in talks to acquire Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR), a troubled supplier that builds the body of the Max jet, which had been a part of Boeing until it was spun out two decades ago. This potential acquisition reflects Boeing’s commitment to streamlining its supply chain, strengthening production capabilities, and exerting greater control over supplier policies and practices.

Disappointing Financial Performance

Despite a rocky start this year, Boeing reported a slightly better-than-feared quarter but continued to burn cash (almost $4 billion) as it tried to stabilize production. With fewer planes exiting factories in the last three months, Boeing’s revenue suffered a significant blow in the first quarter.

For the quarter that ended March 31, 2023, the company posted a 7.5% year-over-year decline in its total revenues to $16.57 billion. Its non-GAAP core operating loss came in at $388 million and $1.13 per share, respectively. Also, BA’s net loss for the quarter amounted to $355 million, which was not as steep as analysts had expected, and it was smaller than the $425 million loss in the prior year’s period.

Deliveries of Boeing’s commercial planes declined by 36% year-on-year in the first three months of 2024. The airline company also reported an operating cash outflow of $3.36 billion, compared with $318 million cash outflow in the last year’s period. Also, it posted a negative free cash flow of $3.92 billion, compared with a loss of $787 million a year ago. Further, the total company backlog grew to $529 billion, including over 5,600 commercial airplanes.

CEO Dave Calhoun, emphasizing the ‘tough moment,’ said, “Lower deliveries can be difficult for our customers and for our financials. But safety and quality must and will come above all else.”

Mixed Analyst Expectations

As Boeing continues to face substantial expenses in resolving identified issues, compensating affected parties, and handling potential legal matters, CFO Brian West believes the company will have a “sizable use of cash” in the second quarter.

Analysts expect BA’s revenue for the fiscal year (ending December 2024) to increase 4.2% year-over-year to $81.09 billion. However, the company is expected to report a loss per share of $0.55. For the ongoing quarter ending June 2024, its revenue is estimated to decline 3.6% year-over-year to $19.05 billion.

However, Street expects the company’s revenue for the next quarter (ending September 30, 2024) to increase by 18.5% year-over-year to $21.46 billion, while its earnings per share is expected to be at $0.41.

During this challenging period, Calhoun stated, “We are utilizing this period, challenging as it may be, to intentionally reduce the pace of operations, strengthen the supply chain, enhance our factory operations, and position Boeing to consistently deliver the reliability and quality our customers expect in the long run.”

Bottom Line

BA’s ongoing challenges, including numerous safety issues, production halts, and delayed deliveries, have put the firm in a complex situation where forecasting future demand has become increasingly precarious. These headwinds are significantly impacting its airline customer base, leading to declining profitability, cash flow problems, and inventory issues that might linger for a while.

Despite these short-term hurdles, the company is committed to strengthening its market position, achieving long-term growth outlooks, and improving predictability for both customers and investors. But this process is going to take some time and concerted effort.

Ultimately, the market’s confidence in Boeing depends on its ability to bounce back from its current challenges. However, the question remains: can the recovery be achieved soon?

Regarding price performance, the stock has plunged nearly 15% over the past three months and more than 33% year-to-date.

Moreover, the stock seems pretty pricey at the moment. In terms of forward P/E, BA is currently trading at 142.59x, which is substantially higher than the industry average of 23.99x. The stock’s forward EV/Sales of 1.81x is 2.9% higher than the industry average of 1.76x. Also, its forward EV/EBITDA of 33.92x compares to the industry average of 11.30x.

Besides, BA’s trailing-12-month gross profit and levered FCF margins of 11.48% and 4.01% are 62.7% and 38.9% lower than the industry averages of 30.80% and 6.56%, respectively. Also, its net income margin of negative 2.81% compares to the industry average of 5.86%.

Recently, Argus Research downgraded their outlook for BA stock from Buy to Hold, estimating a target price of $243.01, indicating a 40.1% upside. In addition, Northcoast Research downgraded the stock from Neutral to Sell.

Given these factors, we believe waiting for a better entry point in this stock could be wise now.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: Is Boeing (BA) a Recovery Play? Evaluating Upside Potential and Risks

Opinions Stock Market News

04 May

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led lower by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator bets led lower by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as all of the seven stock markets we cover had lower speculator net contract positions.

Leading the declines for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (-24,545 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-7,498 contracts), the VIX (-4,433 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-4,189 contracts), Nasdaq-Mini (-3,353 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-1,654 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-407 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (91 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (71 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (69 percent) and Nikkei 225 (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (90.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (95.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (71.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (74.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (68.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (71.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (43.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (48.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (56.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (59.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (64.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (68.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (54.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (62.6 percent)

S&P500-Mini & VIX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (35 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The VIX (24 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-19 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (24.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (33.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (35.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (45.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-28.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-14.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-13.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (7.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-19.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-12.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-3.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (10.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-3.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (17.9 percent)