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Archive for Stock Market News – Page 9

23 Jun

Why Broadcom’s (AVGO) 10-for-1 Stock Split Could Attract a New Wave of Investors

By The Ino.com Team

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), a prominent player in the semiconductor industry, announced a 10-for-1 forward stock split set to take effect on July 15, 2024, taking advantage of a rally in its shares this year. This decision comes on the heels of an outstanding second-quarter performance, underscoring Broadcom’s strategic positioning amid the burgeoning artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.

Understanding Stock Split Mechanics and Strategic Implications for Broadcom

A stock split involves dividing each existing share into multiple shares, effectively lowering the share price proportionally while maintaining the company’s total market capitalization. In AVGO’s case, each shareholder will receive nine additional shares for every one share held, resulting in a tenfold increase in the number of outstanding shares.

The primary objective of a stock split is to make shares more affordable and accessible to a wide range of retail investors by reducing the nominal share price. Given Broadcom’s share price surpassing $1,800 recently, the split aims to address perceived affordability barriers that may have deterred investors.

The increased accessibility can broaden AVGO’s investor base, potentially stimulating demand for its shares. Consequently, a higher number of outstanding shares resulting from the stock split typically leads to higher trading volumes. This enhanced liquidity can benefit both existing and new investors, allowing for easier entry and exit from positions.

Comparison with NVIDIA’s Recent Similar Move

Broadcom’s stock split mirrors a similar move by NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), its rival in the AI hardware market. With more individual investors gaining access to Nvidia’s shares post-split, which came into effect at the close of trading on June 7, increased trading activity and demand were observed, potentially driving share prices higher.

NVIDIA’s stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $99.28 and $68.61, respectively. NVDA’s successful split this month was preceded by significant market gains, highlighting the strategic timing of Broadcom’s decision to capitalize on investor sentiment surrounding the AI and semiconductor sectors.

Historically, stock splits are viewed as a bullish signal. According to data from BofA research, total returns for companies announcing stock splits are about 25% in the 12 months after a stock split compared to 12% gains for the S&P 500 index.

Broadcom’s Unprecedented Growth Amid the AI Boom

With a $839.05 billion market cap, AVGO is a technology leader that develops and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The company manufactures sophisticated networking chips for handling vast amounts of data used by AI applications such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT, positioning it as one of the beneficiaries of increased enterprise investments in the boom.

According to Grand View Research, the global AI market is projected to reach $1.81 trillion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 36.6% during the forecast period (2024-2030). As AI continues to revolutionize industry verticals, including automotive, healthcare, retail, finance, and manufacturing, chipmakers like Broadcom are at the forefront, providing the essential chips that power AI applications.

Broadcom’s second-quarter results were primarily driven by AI demand and VMware. For the quarter that ended May 5, 2024, AVGO’s net revenue increased 43% year-over-year to $12.49 billion. Its revenue surpassed the consensus estimate of $12.01 billion. Revenue from its AI products was a record $3.10 billion during the quarter. Broadcom reported triple-digit revenue growth in the Infrastructure Software segment to $5.29 billion as enterprises increasingly adopted the VMware software stack to build their private clouds.

AVGO’s gross margin grew 27.2% from the year-ago value to $7.78 billion. Its non-GAAP operating income rose 32% year-over-year to $7.15 billion. Furthermore, the company’s non-GAAP net income came in at $5.39 billion or $10.96 per share, up 20.2% and 6.2% year-over-year, respectively. Its EPS exceeded the analysts’ expectations of $10.84.

Also, the company’s adjusted EBITDA grew 30.6% from the prior year’s quarter to $7.43 billion. It reported a free cash flow, excluding restructuring and integration, of $4.45 billion, up 18% year-over-year. As of May 5, 2024, AVGO’s cash and cash equivalents were $9.81 billion.

After an outstanding financial performance, Broadcom raised its fiscal year 2024 guidance. The company expects full-year revenue of nearly $51 billion. Its adjusted EBITDA is expected to be approximately 61% of projected revenue.

Favorable Analyst Estimates

Analysts expect AVGO’s revenue for the third quarter (ending July 2024) to grow 45.6% year-over-year to $12.92 billion. The consensus EPS estimate of $12.11 for the current quarter indicates a 14.9% year-over-year increase. Moreover, the company has surpassed the consensus revenue and EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, which is impressive.

For the fiscal year ending October 2024, Street expects Broadcom’s revenue and EPS to grow 43.4% and 13% year-over-year to $43.37 billion and $47.74, respectively. In addition, the company’s revenue and EPS for the fiscal year 2025 are expected to increase 15.3% and 25.6% from the previous year to $59.22 billion and $59.95, respectively.

Bottom Line

As AI continues to revolutionize several sectors, chipmakers such as Broadcom are at the forefront, offering essential semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions powering this technology. Driven by robust AI demand and VMware, AVGO reported solid second-quarter performance, exceeding analysts’ estimates for revenue and earnings.

The management expressed confidence in the company’s growth prospects by raising the company’s fiscal year 2024 guidance for revenue to $51 billion and adjusted EBITDA to 61% of revenue. Moreover, AVGO’s strong financial health enabled it to approve a quarterly dividend of $5.25 per share, payable on June 28, 2024.

The company pays an annual dividend of $21 per share, which translates to a yield of 1.17% on the current share price, while its four-year average dividend yield is 2.69%. Its dividend payouts have grown at CAGRs of 12.9% and 17.5% over the past three and five years, respectively. Broadcom also raised its dividend payouts for 13 consecutive years.

In the last quarterly earnings release, AVGO announced a ten-for-one forward stock split of its common stock, making ownership of Broadcom stock more accessible to investors. The company’s decision to execute a stock split represents a strategic move to enhance shareholder value and broaden investor participation.

By making its shares more accessible and increasing liquidity, Broadcom positions itself to attract a diverse array of investors keen on capitalizing on the AI-driven semiconductor boom. The stock split is a pivotal catalyst that could propel AVGO’s growth trajectory forward, cementing its status as a critical player in the evolving tech industry.

In a report released on June 16, William Stein from Truist Financial maintained a Buy rating on AVGO, with a price target of $2,045. Further, Oppenheimer’s Rick Schafer increased the price target on Broadcom from $1,500 to $2,000 while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock.

In addition to Oppenheimer’s rating update, other analysts adjusted their price targets for AVGO. Goldman Sachs’ Toshiya Hari raised the price target from $1,550 to $1,850 and maintained a Strong Buy rating. Also, JP Morgan’s Harlan Sur raised the price target from $1,700 to $2,000 and maintained a Strong Buy rating on the stock.

In conclusion, for investors eyeing opportunities in the dynamic intersection of AI and semiconductor sectors, Broadcom’s ten-for-one stock split presents a compelling avenue to consider, backed by sound fundamentals and strategic foresight.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: Why Broadcom’s (AVGO) 10-for-1 Stock Split Could Attract a New Wave of Investors

Opinions Stock Market News
22 Jun

FX, Stocks, Commodities, Cryptos… Learn How to Know When This Key Price Pattern is Over (Video)

By Elliott Wave International

“12345-ABC.” That’s a basic Elliott wave pattern in a nutshell. That “12345” is a so-called impulse, and it’s a key price pattern to know, because impulses point in the direction of the larger trend. In this clip from a recent Trader’s Classroom lesson, host Favio Poci shows you step-by-step how to spot an impulse and know when it’s likely over. (Market in focus: EUR/CHF, but you can apply this to any liquid market.)

Continue Your Education on Impulse Waves with this FREE Online Course!

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In about 1 hour, you’ll learn:

  1. “What do I look for?” — just what, exactly, should you look for on a price chart? See an easy way to spot an impulse wave.
  2. “What does it tell me?” — Impulse waves are great at showing you the direction of the larger trend (which, as you know, is “your friend”!)
  3. “Are there variations?” — Most impulse waves are simple, but some are… well, different. You’ll see how to quickly distinguish one from another.

Start Watching Now

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline FX, Stocks, Commodities, Cryptos… Learn How to Know When This Key Price Pattern is Over (Video). EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Opinions Stock Market News
17 Jun

Expert Says Lithium-Brine Stock on Course to New Highs

Source: Clive Maund (6/17/24) 

Technical Analyst Clive Maund shares why he believes American Salars Lithium Inc. (USLI:CSE) is a Strong Buy, including the recent news that it acquired a new project.

American Salars Lithium Inc. (USLI:CSE) is a lithium exploration company whose stock is viewed as a Strong Buy here for both fundamental and technical reasons.

First we will consider the fundamentals of the company before proceeding to review its latest stock chart.

The first point to make is a general one concerning the outlook for lithium itself. As you may recall, after a massive speculative runup in 2020 and especially in 2021, the lithium price fell victim to a severe bear market that ran from mid-2022 through the end of 2023, as we can see on the following 5-year chart. By the end of last year, this bear market had exhausted itself, and a basing process began that has continued up to the present.

Chart courtesy of tradingeconomics.com

The chart implies that perhaps after some further basing action, lithium prices will start higher again in a new bull market.

Turning now to the particulars of the company itself, American Salars has a range of projects in Argentina, Canada, and the U.S. Its flagship project is the 3000 Hectare Candela II Salar project in Argentina, which features a National Instrument 43-101 inferred resource of 457,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate that is open for expansion.

Other projects include the Blackrock South lithium brine project in Nevada, located just 72 miles north of the Tesla Gigafactory. The company also has a highly prospective portfolio of projects in British Columbia and Quebec, Canada.

The Incahuasi Salar Project, which is easily accessible by road, is located in the province of Salta in northwestern Argentina, and it supports conditions for quality lithium mines at depth. The region has been substantially explored and it has been found that the lithium brines are close to the surface. The following picture from the company’s website gives some general information about the project.

The following excerpt, also from the company website, sets out some highlights of the project.

This photo shows drilling in progress at the Incahuasi Salar.

Turning now to the company’s other projects, which are all in the exploration stage, we will start by looking briefly at the prospective Black Rock South property in Nevada.

This picture shows the location of the project in NW Nevada and its proximity to the Tesla Gigafactory, an obvious large nearby market for the lithium extracted by the company.

At the Black Rock South property, the recent mineral exploration on the Galt claim group under option to Surge Battery Metals Inc. (NILIF:OTCMKTS;NILI:TSX-V) located 11 Miles to the South includes 51 playa sediment samples collected for chemical analysis at ALS Geochemistry in Vancouver, B.C.

Results of aqua regia leaching of the samples show 68 to 852 parts per million lithium (mean 365 ppm), 5.3 to 201 ppm cesium (mean 72 ppm) and 35 to 377 ppm rubidium (mean 180 ppm). Results from two seven-foot-deep auger holes show lithium, cesium, and rubidium concentrations in the range of 143.5 to 773 ppm Li, 56.8 to 102.5 ppm Cs and 155 to 272 Rb.

The entire San Emidio Desert basin is a highly prospective lithium exploration zone and is about 38 km long and up to 11 km wide at the widest point, with the central playa measuring about 8.5 km north-south and 4.5 km east-west.

A proposed four-hole drill program at the Galt project is pending permitting approval. It is designed to test a tight grouping of highly anomalous surface sediment sampling locations, which returned assay values with a high of 312 ppm lithium and a mean value of 215 ppm lithium.

The following photo gives an idea of the terrain at Black Rock South.

With respect to the company’s Quebec Project, this excerpt from the company website gives some details about it.

Lastly the company’s La Isla property in British Columbia is not lithium but gold with some copper and this excerpt from the company website gives some details about it. Note that this description continues on and the balance of it can be read on the relevant page on the website, the important closing sentence of which reads.

“Results to date from the Isla property demonstrate strong potential for gold and copper bearing mineralization that warrants further geological, geochemical, and geophysical exploration.”

Now we will examine the latest stock chart for the company to see what it portends and we will use a 9-month chart which shows the entire history of the stock from its inception on this market.

As we can see, the stock was “dormant” from September through late February, marking out a low base with almost no trading. Hence the “fly specked” appearance of the chart up to that point, but in March, it suddenly came to life, blasting higher on strong volume to double in price in a matter of a few days. However, since that early March surge, it has meandered around in a rather erratic manner, dropping back hard during the second half of April and early May to successfully test the support shown at the breakout point.

Whilst some might interpret the erratic pattern from the early March surge to be some kind of top area, this is not thought to be the case at all. In the first place, the high volume breakout that we saw in early March has strong bullish implications and should mark the start of a major bull market.

Secondly, the recurrent heavy upside volume since early March is also bullish, especially as it has driven both volume indicators, the Accumulation line and the On-balance Volume line (not shown), to stage breakouts to clear new highs on the high volume advance late in May and early this month. This is a powerful indication that the stock is destined to break out above the resistance to clear new highs soon despite the dip of the past week or so, and with respect to this, we should recall that lithium itself is looking set to break out into a new bull market soon as we saw above.

Last, and certainly not least, there was big news out this morning (June 17) that AMERICAN SALARS ACQUIRES POCITOS LITHIUM SALAR PROJECT WITH INFERRED LITHIUM CARBONATE MINERAL RESOURCE. This is clearly a major positive development for the company because this project has an NI 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimate (“MRE”) prepared in December 2023, consisting of an inferred 760,000-tonne lithium carbonate equivalent (“LCE”).

The conclusion is that American Salars is on course to break out to new highs soon, so anyone holding should stay long, and it is rated a Strong Buy here. Upon breaking out to new highs, a likely initial target for the upleg that follows is the CA$0.60 area.

American Salars’ website.

American Salars Lithium Inc. (USLI:CSE) closed for trading at CA$0.33 on June 14, 2024.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. American Salars Lithium Inc. has a consulting relationship with an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, and pays a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000. For this article, the Company has paid Street Smart, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, US$1,500 in addition to the monthly consulting fee.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of American Salars Lithium Inc.
  3. Author Certification and Compensation: [Clive Maund of clivemaund.com] was retained and compensated as an independent contractor by Street Smart to write this article. Mr. Maund is a technical analyst who analyzes historical trading data and he received his UK Technical Analysts’ Diploma in 1989.  The recommendations and opinions expressed in this content reflect the personal, independent, and objective views of the author regarding any and all of the companies discussed. No part of the compensation received by the author was, is, or will be directly or indirectly tied to the specific recommendations or views expressed.
  4. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  5. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services, or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Clivemaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks cannot be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to buy and sell securities.

Financial News Stock Market News
17 Jun

Trade of the Week: UK100 index set for 1,000 pip move?

By ForexTime 

  • This week set to be UK100’s 2nd most-volatile period so far in 2024
  • UK100 may even see a 1000-pip intraday move
  • Traders brace for BOE decision, UK economic data
  • UK100 still holding on to QTD gains, but 3.8% lower from ATH
  • Wall Street predicts 15% future gains over next 12 months

 

This week could see big price swings for the UK100 stock index.

Markets currently predict this week to be the 2nd most-volatile period so far this year for this benchmark stock index.

The year-to-date peak was back in April, when Iran launched its unprecedented attacks on Israel, which stoked risk-off sentiment across global financial markets.

NOTE: FXTM’s UK100 stock index tracks the benchmark FTSE 100 index.

 

What could move the UK100 this week?

Traders will be highly tuned in to these 3 major economic events in the UK:

1) Wednesday, June 19th: UK May consumer price index (CPI)

The consumer price index, which measures headline inflation, is a key piece of economic data which tells investors and traders when the UK central bank can start cutting interest rates.

Here’s what economists predict for this week’s CPI releases:

  • CPI May 2024 vs. April 2024 (month-on-month): 0.4%
    If so, that would be an uptick from April’s 0.3% month-on-month figure.
  • CPI May 2024 vs. May 2023 (year-on-year): 2.0%
    If so, that would be considerably lower than April’s 2.3% year-on-year figure.
  • CPI core (excluding prices of energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) year-on-year: 3.5%
    If so, that would be considerably lower than April’s 3.9% year-on-year figure.

As the CPI trends lower to the central bank’s 2% target, that increases the likelihood of a BOE rate cut.

In addition to the above, markets will also be shown the latest inflation rates on services, housing costs, retail prices, and producer prices.

 

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

  • UK100 index may push higher: if UK inflation does moderate lower towards the BOE’s 2% target, perhaps paving the way for a UK rate cut.
  • UK100 index may be dragged lower: if UK inflation proves higher-than-expected, taking its own sweet time in moderating towards the BOE’s 2% target, in turn delaying UK rate cuts.

Over the past 12 months, the UK CPI have triggered upside moves as much as 1.3%, or as much as 0.56% declines, in the 6 hours after the data release.

 

 

2) Thursday, June 20th: Bank of England (BOE) rate decision

To be clear, the BOE is not expected to lower its bank rate this week from its current 5.25% level.

If it does, that could be a major shocker for the UK100 index!

  • The odds for a rate cut on August 1st is down to a coin toss (47% chance).
  • Meanwhile, there’s an 84% chance currently given for a mid-September rate cut.

 

With those expectations in mind, investors and traders worldwide will be scouring for clues as to what the BOE might say about the timing of its eventual rate cut.

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

  • UK100 index may push higher: if the BOE signals that its rate cut might happen sooner (August?) rather than later (September?)
  • UK100 index may be dragged lower: if the BOE pushes back on the idea of imminent rate cuts, saying that its bank rate has to stay at the 5.25% peak for longer to convincingly subdue UK inflation.

Over the past 12 months, BOE rate decisions have triggered upside moves as much as 1.1%, or as much as 0.5% declines, in the 6 hours after the data release.

 

 

3) Friday, June 21st: UK May retail sales, June purchasing managers indexes (PMIs)

Overall, these data points are expected to show that the UK economy is on a steadier footing:

  • UK retail sales fared better in May, both on a month-on-month as well as year-on-year basis, compared to April 2024.
  • The manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs are expected to hold above the 50 line, which denotes expanding conditions (as opposed to a sub-50 reading which points to contracting conditions for that sector).

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

  • UK100 index may push higher: if the UK retail sales and PMI data come in below market expectations, forcing the BOE to proceed with rate cuts sooner rather than later.
  • UK100 index may be dragged lower: if the UK economic data exceeds market expectations and forces the BOE to delay its rate cuts.

Over the past 12 months, the UK retail sales data releases have triggered upside moves as much as 1.4%, or as much as 1.2% declines, in the 6 hours after the data release.

 

 

Political turmoil to inject more UK100 volatility?

As the French political turmoil has amplified investor angst surrounding European stock indexes (EU50, FRA40, etc.), the UK100 index has been able to hold on to its quarter-to-date (QTD) gains so far:

  • NETH25: +4.4%
  • UK100: +2.3%
  • GER40: -2.6%
  • EU50: -4.5%
  • FRA40: -8.5%

The above performance has enabled the UK stock market to reclaim the title as Europe’s largest stock market from France.

However, fundamental investors also note that the UK elections are set for merely two weeks away, on July 4th.

The closer we get to polling day, the more influence UK politics could hold over this benchmark stock index.

 

 

How might UK100 fare over the long term?

Wall Street analysts predict another 15% potential upside (12,000 pips / 1,200 index points) from the UK100’s current levels over the next 12 months.

But first, the above-mentioned near-term events must first be overcome before potentially crossing above the 9,300 level by this time in 2025, assuming Wall Street’s forecasts prove true.

 

 

From a technical perspective …

At the time of writing, the UK100 is trading about 3.8% below its all-time high (ATH), using intraday prices, of 8486.4 set on May 15th.

However, the 8120 level has provided support in recent sessions, with prices not straying far from its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) over the past week.

 

POTENTIAL RESISTANCE

  • 50-day SMA:  immediate resistance
  • 8250: upper downtrend line
  • 21-day SMA

POTENTIAL SUPPORT:

  • 8120 area: crucial support from recent sessions.
  • 8100: downward lower trendline
  • 8020 area: support in late-April 2024

However, such a drastic decline (to 8020) would have to come by way of an aggressively hawkish BOE or a serious bout of risk-off sentiment across global financial markets.

 

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News
08 Jun

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by MSCI EAFE & Nasdaq

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by MSCI EAFE & Nasdaq

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (13,955 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (5,723 contracts), the VIX (1,469 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (73 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-62,792 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-4,858 contracts) and with the Russell-Mini (-510 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (74 percent) and the VIX (70 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (42 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (70.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (68.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (55.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (64.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (73.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (81.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (42.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (33.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (60.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (61.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (66.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (66.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (55.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (41.2 percent)

DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (2 percent) and the Russell-Mini (1 percent) lead the past six weeks and are the only positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the S&P500-Mini (-20 percent) coming in as the next market with the lowest trend score.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-25.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (-21.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-19.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-11.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (2.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-0.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-6.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-19.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (1.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (3.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (-1.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-6.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-7.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-19.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -41,275 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,744 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.839.67.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.629.67.4
– Net Position:-41,27541,985-710
– Gross Longs:95,865166,55530,228
– Gross Shorts:137,140124,57030,938
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.425.689.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.220.423.5

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -62,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.371.013.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.373.28.1
– Net Position:-65,000-47,092112,092
– Gross Longs:265,4331,534,557287,673
– Gross Shorts:330,4331,581,649175,581
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.033.481.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.819.7-4.0

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 8,286 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,858 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,144 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.958.314.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.668.512.3
– Net Position:8,286-10,1951,909
– Gross Longs:21,00858,70914,251
– Gross Shorts:12,72268,90412,342
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.823.453.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.3-3.65.0

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,997 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,726 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.456.417.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.661.713.1
– Net Position:1,997-13,02711,030
– Gross Longs:60,252139,14243,392
– Gross Shorts:58,255152,16932,362
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.338.296.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.46.0-3.2

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -34,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,845 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.372.96.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.767.54.5
– Net Position:-34,35525,4698,886
– Gross Longs:86,068342,25329,881
– Gross Shorts:120,423316,78420,995
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.736.858.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.2-3.09.9

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 73 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.063.823.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.064.613.1
– Net Position:-1,563-1281,691
– Gross Longs:1,5699,9963,740
– Gross Shorts:3,13210,1242,049
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.0 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.825.665.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.5-1.05.3

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,414 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.289.42.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.788.41.3
– Net Position:-10,4143,8286,586
– Gross Longs:29,922369,75811,866
– Gross Shorts:40,336365,9305,280
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.641.049.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.05.76.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
03 Jun

Alibaba’s (BABA) Secret Weapon for Future Growth

By The Ino.com Team

Amid challenging regulatory pressures, economic headwinds, and fierce market competition, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) has showcased a resilient performance, as evidenced by its latest quarterly results. Shares of the Chinese e-commerce giant have gained more than 7% over the past three months. Moreover, the stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $76.20 and $78.79, respectively, reflecting a solid momentum.

Alibaba’s diverse business portfolio continues to be a driving force behind its steady financial performance. For the fourth quarter that ended March 31, 2024, BABA’s revenue increased 7% year-over-year to $30.73 billion, beating the analysts’ estimate of $30.42 billion. The growth was driven by robust performances across its core e-commerce and cloud computing segments.

BABA’s strategic investments in Alibaba Cloud infrastructure and its domestic and international e-commerce platforms have spurred double-digit growth in key metrics such as gross merchandise value (GMV). Yet, the company’s income from operations dipped 3% from the prior-year quarter to $2.05 billion.

Navigating through cautious consumer spending in China, Alibaba has observed early signs of recovery in its primary e-commerce operations. Revenue from the Taobao and Tmall Group increased 4% year-over-year to $12.91 billion, while customer management revenue grew 5%, rebounding from a previously flat quarter. Also, revenue from the Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC) surged 45% year-over-year to $3.80 billion.

BABA’s CEO Eddie Wu’s commitment to ‘reignite’ growth through further investments is beginning to yield results, as he noted the strategies were “working and we are returning to growth.”

But What’s Behind This Robust Growth?

Alibaba’s secret weapon lies in its digital technology and intelligence arm, Alibaba’s Cloud Intelligence Group, which stood as the company’s second-largest revenue generator last year. Revenue from this segment rose 3% year-over-year to $3.54 billion, driven by the double-digit growth of its public cloud business. Core offerings like elastic computing, databases, and AI products led to a notable triple-digit growth in AI-related revenue in the fourth quarter alone. This surge in demand for advanced AI solutions positions the company to capitalize on the burgeoning AI market.

To foster long-term growth and attract startups and small businesses, Alibaba aggressively slashed prices on over 100 core public cloud products (including Elastic Compute Service (ECS), Object Storage Service, and database product categories) in China. This initiative was later extended globally in April with a 23% average price reduction. Customers ordering through Alibaba’s official website can now enjoy discounts of up to 59% on computing, storage, network, database, and big data products.

“Cloud infrastructure is poised to be the key cornerstone for the future of AI, and our commitment lies in making sure that the foundation for AI development remains affordable,” said Selina Yuan, President of the International Business of Alibaba Cloud Intelligence.

Moreover, Alibaba Cloud’s AI capabilities have rapidly gained traction, with over 90,000 enterprises adopting the Qwen large language model (LLM) within a year of its debut and more than 7 million downloads on open-source platforms like Github. Alibaba Cloud introduced Qwen2.5, the latest addition to its Qwen model family, to meet the growing demand for AI solutions.

Furthermore, Alibaba Cloud recently launched a service to help companies customize and scale generative AI models, from consolidating multiple models to optimizing underlying infrastructure resources. The PAI-Lingjun Intelligent Computing Service, an AI computing platform tailored for high-performance computing tasks, also expanded its reach to Singapore for the first time this year.

Also, the group’s strategic focus on public cloud and operational efficiency resulted in an impressive 49% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA to $848 million in fiscal year 2024. Such growth figures solidify Alibaba Cloud’s role as a crucial driver of the company’s future growth.

Is Price Cuts a Strategic Initiative or a Race to the Bottom?

Alibaba’s recent move to reduce prices across its cloud services has stirred the market. Some say it’s a smart move to attract more customers (especially with the growing demand for AI services), while others fear it could hurt profits in the long run.

With enterprises’ expenditure on generative AI services expected to reach $143 billion in 2027 globally, the timing of BABA’s price adjustments appears strategic, positioning the company to tap into this growing market.

Meanwhile, BABA’s price cuts have sparked a price war among Chinese tech giants, with Baidu Cloud and ByteDance quickly following suit with their competitive offerings. While these cuts benefit consumers, Alibaba’s footing in the global marketplace is tenuous. Despite holding over 30% of China’s Infrastructure as a Service market, Alibaba still trails behind AWS in the broader Asia Pacific region. Alibaba Cloud commands only a small fraction of the global cloud computing market, where AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud dominate the landscape.

Making headway against these industry giants is not easy, especially considering their strong foothold in Western markets. While the price cuts may attract budget-conscious customers and bolster Alibaba’s presence in emerging markets, success hinges on maintaining high-quality service and innovation in the long run. Only time will tell if Alibaba’s gamble pays off.

Bottom Line

BABA reported a beat in revenue in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024; however, the e-commerce giant’s earnings plunged. Despite a weak bottom line, CFO Toby Xu expressed confidence in the company’s business outlook, citing early positive results from strategic investments and partnerships. Alibaba sees AI as a significant driver of innovation and value creation within its ecosystem.

During the March quarter, AI-related revenue delivered “triple-digit growth year-over-year.” The revenue was generated from foundational model companies and internet companies, as well as customers from the financial services and automotive industries.

Analysts expect BABA’s revenue for the first quarter (ending June 2024) to increase 5.1% year-over-year to $34.10 billion. However, its EPS for the ongoing quarter is expected to decline by 15.6% year-over-year to $2.03. Further, for the fiscal year 2025, Alibaba’s revenue is forecasted to reach $140.92 billion (up 8.3% year-over-year), while the consensus EPS estimate of $8.23 indicates a 4.4% decline from the prior year.

In terms of forward non-GAAP P/E, BABA is trading at 9.61x, 39.5% lower than the industry average of 15.88x. Similarly, the stock’s forward EV/EBITDA and Price/Book multiples of 5.94 and 1.31 are 39% and 45.3% lower than the industry averages of 9.73 and 2.40, respectively.

In response to its low valuation, Alibaba’s management repurchased $4.8 billion worth of shares during the fourth quarter. Moreover, earlier this year, the company bolstered its share buyback program by an additional $25 billion, extending it through the end of March 2027.

In further demonstrating its commitment to returning value to shareholders, BABA approved a two-part dividend plan totaling $4 billion. This plan includes a regular cash dividend of $0.125 per ordinary share or $1 per ADS in FY24 and a one-time extraordinary cash dividend of $0.0825 per ordinary share or $0.66 per ADS. Both dividends will be paid out in U.S. dollars to holders of ordinary shares and ADS holders as of the close of business on June 13, 2024.

While the impact of price reductions on Alibaba’s bottom line remains to be seen, achieving double-digit revenue growth across its specific segments amid strategic pricing adjustments underscores the company’s resilience and adaptability in an ever-evolving market landscape.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: Alibaba’s (BABA) Secret Weapon for Future Growth

Opinions Stock Market News
02 Jun

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by S&P500 & VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was with the S&P500-Mini (20,566 contracts), the VIX (8,648 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (5,188 contracts), the Russell-Mini (3,739 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (609 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-8,444 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (-6,965 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (82 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The VIX (69 percent) and Nikkei 225 (66 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (33 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score is the MSCI EAFE-Mini (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (68.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (59.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (64.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (61.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (81.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (93.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (33.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (46.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (61.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (58.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (66.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (61.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (41.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (35.8 percent)

Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The VIX (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-19 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-21.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (-21.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-11.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (6.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-0.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (5.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-19.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-4.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (3.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-7.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-2.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-19.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-20.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,392 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.540.87.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.030.57.1
– Net Position:-42,74441,3981,346
– Gross Longs:82,966165,14330,267
– Gross Shorts:125,710123,74528,921
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.925.0100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.916.824.6

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 20,566 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.269.013.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.373.88.3
– Net Position:-2,208-105,944108,152
– Gross Longs:330,9371,503,708289,071
– Gross Shorts:333,1451,609,652180,919
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.425.380.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.411.1-1.6

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 13,144 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,965 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,109 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.954.915.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.473.111.3
– Net Position:13,144-17,6544,510
– Gross Longs:22,28553,40115,471
– Gross Shorts:9,14171,05510,961
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.712.665.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.9-1.78.4

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,718 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.954.417.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.457.013.2
– Net Position:-3,726-6,68310,409
– Gross Longs:68,402138,38743,934
– Gross Shorts:72,128145,07033,525
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.445.295.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.012.32.6

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,845 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.773.55.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.067.74.5
– Net Position:-33,84527,0366,809
– Gross Longs:82,901343,51427,628
– Gross Shorts:116,746316,47820,819
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.137.851.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.3-4.58.2

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 609 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,245 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.561.525.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.961.215.5
– Net Position:-1,636491,587
– Gross Longs:1,8239,7394,033
– Gross Shorts:3,4599,6902,446
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.0 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.226.863.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.75.10.9

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -24,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,557 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.089.62.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.785.21.6
– Net Position:-24,36918,7425,627
– Gross Longs:29,861381,75612,467
– Gross Shorts:54,230363,0146,840
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.256.345.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.419.10.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

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31 May

Why Nvidia’s Stock Surge Could Translate to Higher Dividends

By The Ino.com Team

With a $2.35 trillion market cap, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has had an exceptional year so far. Following a stellar 2023, NVDA’s stock has already surged nearly 92% since January. Moreover, the stock has gained over 200% in the past year.

This surge in NVIDIA has been fueled by its explosive growth in the AI and data center markets, making it one of the most talked-about and desirable stocks. With a high of just under $955 in yesterday’s session, expectations are mounting for the stock to hit four digits soon.

Ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, Stifel analyst Ruben Roy increased his price target on the stock from $910 to $1,085, citing that he expects Nvidia to again surpass expectations on the top and bottom lines and raise its guidance for the next quarter.

The company’s results have been bolstered by solid demand for its chips from hyperscalers, including Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), and others. As a result, the first-quarter earnings report will serve as a crucial gauge of the industry’s appetite for further AI investment.

Also, Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya raised his price target on NVDA stock from $925 to $1100 while maintaining a “Buy” rating.

Let’s analyze how Nvidia’s stock price appreciation could lead to higher dividend payouts.

Dominance in AI and Data Center Markets

The U.S., led by NVIDIA, dominates the generative AI (GenAI) tech market. With the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, the rise of GenAI gained substantial momentum.

From consumer-facing applications, foundational technology such as large language models (LLMs), cloud infrastructure, and semiconductors crucial for operations, U.S. companies hold a market share ranging from 70% to an impressive 90% across several segments of the generative AI landscape.

According to Statista, the global generative AI market is expected to reach $36.06 billion in 2024. Further, the market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 46.5%, resulting in a market volume of $356.10 billion by 2030. In global comparison, the U.S. is estimated to have the largest market share, totaling $11.66 billion this year.

Moreover, NVDA, a leading tech player, commands a market share of around 92% in the data center GPU market for GenAI applications.

Nvidia’s success extends beyond its cutting-edge semiconductor performance, owing to its software capabilities. The widely adopted CUDA development platform, introduced in 2006, has become a fundamental tool for AI development, amassing a user base of more than 4 million developers.

The company’s chips are essential in powering technology like Google’s Gemini and OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Also, META has placed a sizable order of 350,000 H100 GPU graphics cards from Nvidia. In line, MSFT has spent billions of dollars buying chips from the chipmaker.

Unveiled New Generation AI Graphics Processors

In March 2024, NVDA announced its next-generation chip architecture named Blackwell and related products, including its latest AI chip, B200. The latest GPUs are expected to dramatically boost developers’ ability to build advanced AI models.

The new GPU platform succeeds the company’s Hopper architecture, which was launched two years earlier and helped send NVDA’s business and stock surging.

Blackwell GPUs, containing 208 billion transistors, can enable AI models to scale up to 10 trillion parameters. It will be incorporated in Nvidia’s GB200 Grace Blackwell Superchip, which connects two B200 Blackwell GPUs to a Grace CPU.

The new AI chips are expected to ship later this year.

“Generative AI is the defining technology of our time,” said Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang during a keynote address at the company’s developers conference in San Jose, California. “Blackwell GPUs are the engine to power this new industrial revolution. Working with the most dynamic companies in the world, we will realize the promise of AI for every industry.”

With Blackwell’s superior performance, the chipmaker aims to solidify its dominance in the data center GPU market.

Outstanding Fourth-Quarter Financials

For the fourth quarter that ended January 28, 2024, NVDA’s revenue increased 265.3% year-over-year to $22.10 billion. That exceeded analysts’ expectations of $20.55 billion. It reported a record revenue from the Data Center segment of $18.40 billion, up 409% from the prior year’s period.

“Accelerated computing and generative AI have hit the tipping point. Demand is surging worldwide across companies, industries and nations,” said Jensen Huang.

He added, “Our Data Center platform is powered by increasingly diverse drivers — demand for data processing, training and inference from large cloud-service providers and GPU-specialized ones, as well as from enterprise software and consumer internet companies. Vertical industries — led by auto, financial services and healthcare — are now at a multibillion-dollar level.

The chipmaker’s gross profit was $16.79 billion, an increase of 338.1% year-over-year. Its non-GAAP operating income rose 563.2% year-over-year to $14.75 billion. Its non-GAAP net income grew 490.6% from the previous year’s quarter to $12.84 billion.

Also, Nvidia posted non-GAAP earnings per share of $5.16, compared to the analysts’ estimate of $4.63, and up 486% year-over-year.

NVDA’s non-GAAP free cash flow was $11.22 billion, up 546.1% from the previous year’s period. The company’s total current assets were $44.35 billion as of January 28, 2024, compared to $23.07 billion as of January 29, 2023.

“Fundamentally, the conditions are excellent for continued growth” in 2025 and beyond, Huang told analysts. He noted that the robust demand for the company’s GPUs is expected to persist, fueled by the adoption of generative AI and an industry-wide shift from central processors to Nvidia’s accelerators.

Further, NVIDIA predicts revenue of $24 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2025. The company’s non-GAAP gross margin is anticipated to be 77%.

Potential for Increased Dividend Payouts

As Nvidia’s revenue and profits soar significantly, the company will likely consider increasing its dividend payouts, benefiting long-term investors. NVIDIA paid its quarterly cash dividend of $0.04 per share on March 27 to shareholders of record on March 6. The company’s annual dividend of $0.16 translates to a yield of 0.02% at the current share price.

Currently, Nvidia’s dividend yield is modest compared to its tech peers, but its substantial cash flow and strong balance sheet provide ample room for growth. By increasing dividends, the company can attract a broader base of income-focused investors, further supporting its stock price.

Bottom Line

NVDA’s remarkable rise so far this year can be attributed to its dominance in the AI and data center markets, fueled by the growing demand for its chips from tech giants such as Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and more.

Moreover, Nvidia’s recent announcement of its next-generation chip architecture, Blackwell, and related products demonstrates its commitment to innovation and maintaining its competitive edge. With Blackwell’s superior performance, Nvidia aims to consolidate its dominance in the data center GPU market.

Analysts are highly optimistic about the chipmaker’s prospects. Analysts expect NVDA’s revenue and EPS for the fiscal 2025 first quarter (ended April 2024) to increase 242% and 411.9%year-over-year to $24.59 billion and $5.58, respectively. Also, the company topped consensus revenue and EPS estimates in all four trailing quarters, which is impressive.

As NVDA continues to expand its market share and generate higher revenue and profit, the company naturally accumulates more cash reserves. With ample cash in hand, it can increase its dividend payouts without compromising its ability to fund ongoing operations or invest in future growth opportunities.

Increased dividends will be a positive signal to the market, reflecting Nvidia’s confidence in its long-term prospects and its commitment to returning value to shareholders. This move can also enhance investor sentiment, particularly among those looking for stable income streams in addition to capital appreciation.

In conclusion, NVDA stands at the forefront of the tech industry, driving innovation and shaping the future of AI. Given its outstanding financial performance, technological leadership, and potential for dividend growth, Nvidia is an attractive investment opportunity for long-term investors.

By The Ino.com Team – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: Why Nvidia’s Stock Surge Could Translate to Higher Dividends

Opinions Stock Market News
30 May

Why the US government is trying to break up Live Nation Entertainment – a music industry scholar explains

By David Arditi, University of Texas at Arlington 

The U.S. Justice Department, along with 29 states and the District of Columbia, have filed an antitrust lawsuit against Live Nation Entertainment, the parent company of Ticketmaster.

The lawsuit alleges that Live Nation “engaged in a variety of tactics to eliminate competition and monopolize markets,” which, according to U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland, has allowed the entertainment giant to “suffocate the competition” through its control of ticket prices, venues and concert promotion.

In response, Live Nation said that the antitrust suit “ignores everything that is actually responsible for higher ticket prices, from increasing production costs to artist popularity, to 24/7 online ticket scalping that reveals the public’s willingness to pay far more than primary tickets cost.”

The Conversation U.S. asked David Arditi, a University of Texas at Arlington sociologist and former professional drummer who has researched the livelihoods of musicians, to explain what’s behind the government’s decision to intervene in the ticket-selling business.

What is the government accusing the company of doing?

The government alleges that Live Nation Entertainment’s sprawling business model is choking off competition and that the company is punishing venues that rely on other ticketing services.

Live Nation, the country’s largest concert promoter, and Ticketmaster, the nation’s biggest ticket seller, had long been major players in the music industry. After the Justice Department approved a merger in 2010 between the two enterprises, the new company, Live Nation Entertainment, became far more powerful.

Live Nation Entertainment now controls many of the functions associated with putting on a concert: It owns venues, promotes concerts, books acts, produces shows, manages artists, sells tickets, and more.

Why is the Biden administration doing this?

After winning the 2020 presidential election, President Joe Biden promised to use the Justice Department’s antitrust division to break up monopolies, and that’s exactly what the government is trying to do with Live Nation Entertainment.

The government has been investigating Live Nation Entertainment for decades. But after a botched Ticketmaster presale for Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour in late 2022 – which made it nearly impossible for fans to buy tickets at face value – government scrutiny intensified.

After that fiasco, fans started contacting their lawmakers, and the U.S. Senate even held a hearing on the issue. In May 2024, the governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz, signed a bill into law that will require all ticket sellers in the state to disclose their fees up front.

How did Ticketmaster change the ticket-buying experience?

For much of the 20th century, buying tickets to a show or sporting event required traveling to the venue’s box office.

In 1976, Albert Leffler, who worked at Arizona State University’s performing arts center, and Peter Gadwa, an IT staffer on the same campus, founded Ticketmaster with businessman Gordon Gunn III. The enterprise began to sell tickets a year later. As the company developed, it incorporated new technology to facilitate ticket sales at a growing list of locations outside of the venue where a show would be performed.

Ticketmaster ultimately acquired Ticketron, its predecessor and rival.

As a teen in the 1990s, I remember waiting in line at a local grocery store in Williamsburg, Virginia, to buy tickets to a Dave Matthews Band show at the Virginia Beach Amphitheater. I had to be at the grocery store at 9 a.m. to purchase the tickets, but because it was a local Ticketmaster vendor, it saved me an hourlong trip to the venue.

A couple of years later, Ticketmaster introduced the technology required to give concertgoers the opportunity to purchase tickets online. In 2008, the company permitted paperless entry.

However, that convenience comes with hidden fees. Suddenly, the cost of your US$25 ticket can balloon to $40, with that extra $15 relatively opaque until checkout. These fees used to be a matter of convenience; there wasn’t a fee when you went to the venue to buy a ticket.

Now, the fees are unavoidable and multiplying: There can be a service fee, an order processing charge, a facility charge and a delivery fee.

How has Live Nation affected artists’ ability to make a living?

In my research and my personal experience, I’ve observed a sea change in the roles that live music and recorded music are playing.

From the 1970s to the 1990s, recording artists with medium-sized and large fan bases toured to promote their albums. During that time, these musicians assumed that they would take a loss on their tours; the payoff would come from their ability to sell more albums. Less prominent musicians, meanwhile, have always relied on playing at small venues to earn any income at all.

With the advent of file-sharing services, which later gave way to streaming, recording artists began to rely more on touring revenue to supplement their income, as money earned from album sales fell.

With even the most popular musicians increasingly relying on income from touring, they count more on making sure they earn what is owed to them. Fans feel like they have a close relationship with their favorite musicians and are willing to support them financially.

But when Live Nation Entertainment adds fees or pressures musicians to take a smaller cut of concert revenue, it becomes apparent to fans that they and their favorite musicians are getting a raw deal.

What will happen moving forward?

The government will seek a jury trial to determine if Live Nation Entertainment is a monopoly. If the company is found to be violating the Sherman Anti-Trust Act, Live Nation Entertainment would be forced to restructure, or even split into two or more separate companies.

Of course, lawsuits take time to resolve, even if the parties settle before entering a courtroom. And any potential ruling could have to go through an appeals process. I believe it’s likely that this dispute won’t be resolved for several years.

Aside from the lawsuit, the Biden administration is working on banning so-called “junk fees.” Eliminating exorbitant or hidden fees on concert tickets would address some of these problems.

Unfortunately, no matter what happens to Live Nation Entertainment, the music industry as a whole – whether it’s the record labels, streaming services, music publishers or music venues – is trending toward more consolidation and monopolistic behavior.The Conversation

About the Author:

David Arditi, Associate Professor of Sociology, University of Texas at Arlington

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Stock Market News
24 May

Weather risk can move markets months in advance: Stock traders pay attention to these 2 long-range climate forecasts

By Derek Lemoine, University of Arizona 

To understand how important weather and climate risks are to the economy, watch investors. New research shows that two long-range seasonal weather forecasts in particular can move the stock market in interesting ways.

We often think about forecasts as telling us what the weather will bring in coming days, but the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also predicts weather conditions several months out. These seasonal climate outlooks tell us whether the hurricane season is likely to be active, whether the winter is likely to be snowy or cold, and whether an El Niño or La Niña climate pattern is likely to emerge with the potential to influence weather across the U.S.

I study the impacts of weather on economic activity as an economist. In a new paper, an atmospheric scientist at NOAA and I analyzed the influence of long-range forecasts by looking at the changing prices of stock options over 10 years and thousands of companies.

We found that investors are paying millions of dollars to hedge the risks of what NOAA’s seasonal outlooks might say. Their bets suggest that seasonal climate matters for the success of companies throughout the economy, even in sectors that might not seem especially exposed to weather.

Betting on seasonal forecasts in options markets

When you buy a stock, you buy a share of ownership in a company. The value of that stock is tied to the company’s expected future profits.

When you buy a stock option, you pay for the right to buy a particular stock at a particular price on some particular future date. Importantly, the option is just that: an option to buy, not a requirement to buy. You’ll pay a premium for this flexibility.

If the stock’s value falls, then you can just let the option expire and all you’ve lost is the premium. But if the stock price rises enough, you can exercise the option and buy the stock at the lower price built into the option. Another type of option, called a “put,” lets you sell stock you already own in a similar way.

The prices of these options tell us how uncertain investors are about the future economy.

Imagine that you know NOAA will be releasing its winter seasonal outlook in 10 days. You are considering whether to invest in a ski resort whose profits are directly tied to having a snowy, skiable winter. You expect the forecast to affect the price of the ski resort’s stock, but you don’t know which way it will go.

The more uncertain investors are about a stock’s future price, the greater their expected gains from holding the option: They get all the potential gain from big increases in the stock’s price and none of the downside risk of falling stock prices. And the greater their expected gains, the more they are willing to pay for the option and the higher the option’s price in the market. So, knowing the winter seasonal outlook is coming can make one willing to pay more for an option on the ski resort’s stock and raise the option’s price in the market.

While there are now many forecasts and available data to provide clues about the coming seasons, two forecasts tend to move the market.

Winter, El Niño outlooks affect many companies

We found that, from 2010 through 2019, the prices of options on companies throughout U.S. markets tended to fall once NOAA released its Winter Outlook, in October, and the most important of its El Niño outlooks, released in June.

In other words, before the reports came out, traders were willing to pay a higher price for options that hedge, or protect against, whatever news was going to be released. So, traders must believe that seasonal climate matters for companies’ profits and that forecasters might say something important about the coming season’s climate.

We did not detect similar effects on option prices when either NOAA or Colorado State University released their Hurricane Outlooks in May and April, or when the Farmers’ Almanac released its Winter Outlook in August. Traders seem to distinguish among outlooks based on their perceived quality and on the importance of what these reports are able to predict, rather than on media attention.

The seasonal climate also matters for more than just outdoor industries. We found the June El Niño Outlook affects options on construction, transportation and utilities – all industries that can be directly affected by weather. It also affects options on other sectors, such as manufacturing and education, possibly reflecting spillovers from elsewhere in the economy. NOAA’s Winter Outlook has similarly broad effects.

The only sector that the June El Niño Outlook does not clearly affect is agriculture, which may just reflect that El Niño’s and La Niña’s strongest effects are on winter weather, when most agriculture is less vulnerable.

Traders pay money to wait for El Niño Outlook

Traders’ interest in the June El Niño Outlook is especially interesting because NOAA releases an El Niño outlook every month. Most months, the outlook changes little from the previous month’s forecast. But in June, once spring is past, the ability to accurately forecast future El Niño events suddenly jumps.

We found that traders value that jump in quality.

The June Outlook corresponds with a US$12 million premium each year on average, showing traders are willing to put real money on the line just to know what NOAA will say in its June forecast before they commit to a stock. That’s about four times higher than we found with the average May outlook.

The traders’ hedging shows that having high-quality seasonal climate forecasts matters to investors, just as it does to communities, companies and emergency responders who rely on these analyses to prepare for severe weather seasons.

It also supports the argument that there is value in investing in the technology to improve these forecasts. And it shows the importance of keeping these outlooks confidential until their official release, similar to how the U.S. government closely guards important economic statistics prior to making them public.The Conversation

About the Author:

Derek Lemoine, Professor of Economics, University of Arizona

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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