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23 Aug

Week Ahead: Nvidia earnings showdown could set market tone

By ForexTime

Nvidia shares ↑150% year-to-date

Data center business and Q3 guidance in focus

Shares could move 10.4% ↑ or ↓ post earnings

Prices edging higher on H1 but RSI near oversold

Technical levels – $130, $119, 200 SMA and $110

Financial markets may end August with a bang thanks to key data and high-impact events.

Earnings from tech titan Nvidia and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge have the potential to set the tone for the new trading month:

Monday, 26th Aug

GER40: Germany IFO business climate
NGN: Nigeria GDP
SG20: Singapore industrial production
US500: US durable goods

Tuesday, 27th Aug

CN50: China industrial profits
GER40: Germany GDP
AU200: BHP, Woodside Energy earnings
US30: US Conference Board consumer confidence

Wednesday 28th Aug

AU200: Australia CPI
NAS100: Nvidia earnings
USDInd: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Thursday, 29th Aug

EU50: Eurozone consumer confidence
GER40: Germany CPI
SEK: Sweden GDP
US500: US GDP, initial jobless claims, Fed speak

Friday, 30th Aug

CHINAH: ICBC (China’s largest commercial bank) earnings
CAD: Canada GDP
EU50: Eurozone CPI, German unemployment
JP225: Japan unemployment, Tokyo CPI, industrial production, retail sales
US500: US PCE report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

The end of earnings season is near, and Nvidia now comes into sharp focus, after mostly disappointing results from the so-called Magnificent Seven.

When considering Nvidia’s central role in the AI boom, its upcoming earnings have the potential to shape market sentiment with investors undoubtedly looking for another round of outstanding results.

Fun fact: Nvidia shares are up roughly 150% since the start of 2024

When will earnings be published

Nvidia reports its earnings for the second quarter of its 2025 fiscal year after US markets close on Wednesday 28th August.

Market expectations

The tech giant is forecast to post earnings per share of $0.65 compared to $0.27 a year ago.

Quarterly revenues are expected to rise $28.7 billion from $13.5 billion in the prior year – representing a 112.6% increase.

Investors will also be paying close attention to the data center segment and whether earning guidance is raised for Q3.

As highlighted earlier, there is little room for error with exceptional results needed to justify its whopping $3 trillion valuation.

Potential challenges

Concerns over the Blackwell chip delay potentially weighing on the business outlook.

Increasing competition from the likes of AMD and Intel which are investing in their own AI chips.

Potential US bans hitting demand for Nvidia chips in China

How will Nvidia shares react to earnings

Markets are forecasting a 10.4% move, either Up or Down, for Nvidia stocks on Thursday post earnings.

This is equivalent to a move of roughly $300 billion, bigger than the entire market cap of many large companies in the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100.

How will wider markets be influenced?

Over the past 12 months, the Nasdaq 100 has shown a 74% positive correlation with Nvidia shares.

But more interestingly, over a rolling 5-day from the past 10 years:

US500: +97%

UK100: +53%

Intel Corp: +95%

Broadcom: +99%

Advanced Micro Devices: +90%

What does this mean?

Given how some US and European equities are trading near all-time highs, a positive set of results from Nvidia could mean fresh upside gains – opening the doors to more records.

Technical forces

Prices may continue to consolidate within a range until the earnings are published.

Still, Nvidia stocks have been trending higher on the H1 charts with prices above the 100 and 200- SMA. But weakness below the 50 SMA could signal a decline toward the 119.00 support regions. Keep an eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) index is edging towards oversold levels.

Key levels of interest can be found at $130, 119, 200 SMA and $110.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

21 Aug

Pet Odor Product Continues to Be Lucrative for Clean Tech Co.

Source: Streetwise Reports (8/19/24)

Clean technology company BioLargo Inc. (BLGO:OTCQX) continues to see rising revenues with strong year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter growth, an analyst wrote in an updated research note on Friday.

The company this week announced revenues were up, coming in at at a record US$5 million, a 247% increase for the same period from Q2 in 2023. For the six-month period, revenues came in at US$9.7, a 46% increase over the same period from last year, as subsidiary ONM Environmental’s pet odor control product, Pooph, continue to see expanding sales and its engineering services company posted a record quarter.

“For the quarter, Pooph revenues were 70% of total revenues, or ~(US)$3.5M, down from (US)$4.2M in 1Q24 due to timing,” analyst Richard Ryan wrote for Oak Ridge Financial. “Management believes its marketing partner anticipates strong 2H24 sales with new product additions and new retailers added, including Target.”

Ryan noted that BLGO’s marketing partner for the product continues to pursue 20% quarter-over-quarter growth. The company’s management said Pooph is in up to 35,000 retail outlets and its partner goal is getting to 80,000 outlets. Ralph’s and Target have been added, the marketing partner has added Pooph wipes and Litterizer, and puppy pads are on the way.

“Pooph sales should show strong growth again during 2024, approaching ~(US)$20M,” wrote Ryan, who reaffirmed his Buy rating with a US$0.38 per share target price.

In addition, BioLargo said revenues for the first six months of 2024 increased 88% over the year before.

BioLargo did register a net loss for the quarter of US$780,000, which included about US$669,000 in non-cash equity compensation expenses.

Pipeline of PFAS Opportunities ‘Growing’

BioLargo is made up of several subsidiaries that work in different sectors, a “family of companies,” including ONM Environmental, BioLargo Engineering, BioLargo Water, BioLargo Energy Technologies, Clyra Medical Technologies, and the new BioLargo Equipment Solutions & Technologies Inc. (BEST) subsidiary.

Standout products have included Pooph, BEST’s solution to treat water contaminated with the so-called “forever chemicals” that have been getting more attention from environmental regulators, and a new long-last battery that the company said is safer than lithium-ion batteries.

“Pooph sales should show strong growth again during 2024, approaching ~(US)$20M,” wrote Ryan, who reaffirmed his Buy rating with a US$0.38 per share target price.

Forever chemicals, or per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), are a group of thousands of synthetic chemicals used in everything from the linings of fast-food boxes and non-stick cookware to fire-fighting foams and other purposes.

High concentrations of some PFAS may lead to adverse health risks such as cancer, hormonal disruption, and reduced immune system effectiveness, although research is still being conducted. They are called “forever chemicals” because they break down very slowly. Tens of millions of people have been explosed.

BioLargo’s Aqueous Electrostatic Concentrator (AEC) technology removes more than 99% of PFAS chemicals from water, the company said.

Ryan noted that the company has an AEC municipal project in Stockholm, N.J., with a targeted installation of November and “the pipeline of opportunities is large and growing.”

“The large emerging market for PFAS removal and BLGO’s growing validation in this opportunity should not be overlooked,” the analyst wrote. “Modeling expectations are difficult to time, but we endeavored to incrementally include PFAS-related revenues and developed a bull case Price Target of $0.50.”

A Catalyst: A Better Battery

Negotiations continue with potential partners to distribute the company’s copper-iodine would irrigation solution, Clyra, which has secured third-party FDA-compliant manufacturing capabilities. Ryan said Oak Ridge anticipates likely growth for the product in 2025.

Another technology from BioLargo is its liquid sodium prototype battery. Cellinity™ cells have no runaway fires or risk of explosion, don’t decrease in performance over thousands of uses, and store more energy per unit of weight than lithium batteries, the company noted.

The company also said the battery is not self-discharging and does not have outgassing or parasitic load for cooling, and all of the materials in it can be sourced in North America without the need for rare earth elements.

The batteries involve a unique chemistry involving molten salt electrolytes that “imparts substantial benefits over lithium-ion chemistry,” the company noted.

“Management believes the chemistries for its batteries are superior to other battery types and is assessing how it can compete in such a dynamic market environment,” Ryan wrote. “BLGO’s strategy is to sell factories, not batteries, and this puts them in a position to receive a royalty (~6%) and carried interest on the project.”

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

BioLargo Inc. (BLGO:OTCQB)

	Retail: 85%
	Insiders & Management: 15%

85%

15%

^*Share Structure as of 2/20/2024

Source: Thomson Reuters

In July, Technical Analyst Clive Maund noted that according to the company’s chart, “a range of facts strongly suggest that it will now embark on another upleg.”

“Amongst the bullish factors to observe here is the increase in upside volume in recent weeks, with the Accumulation line showing remarkable strength and advancing to new highs, indicating that the stock has continued to be accumulated even as it has corrected back in a downtrend from its February peak,” he wrote. “With the price believed to be at the second low of a small Double Bottom at support just above the rising 200-day moving average, this looks like an excellent point to buy the stock or add to positions.”

Ownership and Share Structure

About 14.6% of BioLargo is owned by insiders and management, according to Yahoo! Finance. They include Chief Science Officer Kenneth Code with 8.44%, CEO Calvert with 3.32%, and Director Jack Strommen with 1.64%, Reuters reported.

About 0.04% is held by the institution First American Trust, Reuters said.

The rest, about 85%, is retail.

Its market cap is US$75.69 million, with about 296.84 million shares outstanding and about 254.71 million free-floating. It trades in a 52-week range of US$0.45 and US$0.15.

Important Disclosures:

BioLargo Inc. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000.
As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of BioLargo Inc., BioLargo Energy Technologies, and Clyra Medical Technologies.
Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.
This article does not constitute medical advice. Officers, employees and contributors to Streetwise Reports are not licensed medical professionals. Readers should always contact their healthcare professionals for medical advice.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Financial News Stock Market News

20 Aug

Can Boeing Recover? Analyzing the Company’s Path to Profitability

By The Ino.com Team

Since the start of 2024, aerospace giant The Boeing Company (BA) has faced a turbulent ride, with its stock plummeting over 30%. The decline was primarily triggered by heightened regulatory scrutiny following a severe safety incident involving one of its planes earlier this year.

Boeing has been working hard to enhance its safety protocols and address regulatory concerns. While these efforts show progress, the company’s latest Q2 earnings report has done little to restore investor confidence. The results revealed a larger-than-expected loss and weaker revenue, culminating in a significant leadership shakeup, with the CEO stepping down.

What’s Going on With Boeing?

Last month, Boeing missed the earnings targets by a wide margin. Revenue for the second quarter that ended June 30, 2024, came in at $16.87 billion, down 15% year-over-year. It fell short of the $17.35 billion revenue analysts had anticipated. On the bottom line, the company posted a non-GAAP net loss of $2.90 per share, much worse than the expected negative $2.01 per share. That compared to a loss per share of $0.82 a year ago.

Moreover, the company’s free cash flow, which was positive in last year’s second quarter, has now turned negative. The company has burned more than $8.26 billion so far this year, leaving with just $12.60 billion in its cash reserves against a hefty debt of $57.90 billion. Also, it reported a cash burn of $4.3 billion in just one quarter.

The management attributed the disappointing second-quarter results to two main factors: lower commercial aircraft deliveries and significant losses on fixed-price defense development programs. During the quarter, Boeing delivered just 92 commercial planes (down 32% year-over-year), leading to a corresponding 32% decline in revenue from what was once its largest business segment.

Meanwhile, the defense, space, and security unit experienced a smaller 2% sales dip but posted a loss of $913 million, nearly double the previous year’s loss of $527 million. Profit margins continued to worsen across these segments. The global services division was the only area with slight improvement, reflecting a 3% revenue increase and a 2% rise in operating earnings, but even here, profit margins declined.

Boeing’s disappointing results came during a period of intense scrutiny, as it faces multiple investigations into its safety practices and manufacturing standards. The company recently pleaded guilty to a federal fraud charge tied to its 737 Max following two fatal crashes that killed 346 people. As a result, the FAA has increased its oversight and limited BA’s production capacity after a serious incident involving an Alaska Airlines Max.

Furthermore, CFO Brian West warned that due to “near-term working capital pressures,” the third quarter will likely see another outflow of cash.

Boeing’s Critical Challenges

Boeing’s troubles are no secret; its repair list is long and daunting. For instance, the company’s commercial airplanes unit has struggled with recurring quality control problems, including serious incidents like doors falling off planes.

In the defense sector, Boeing is struggling with the Pentagon’s push for fixed-price contracts, leading to significant financial write-downs, like those from the Air Force tanker deal. That puts Boeing in a tough spot: accept risky fixed-price contracts or risk losing future defense agreements to competitors who will agree to them.

The company’s space segment isn’t faring much better. Boeing’s Starliner crew transport, essential to fulfilling its commercial crew contract with NASA, has been stranded at the International Space Station for over two months. Boeing might face hefty write-downs and losses if it fails to safely return the astronauts. Thus, addressing these challenges head-on seems crucial for the company’s path to recovery.

A New Leader for Boeing: What’s Next?

As Boeing grapples with its ongoing challenges, outgoing CEO Dave Calhoun assured that the company is “making substantial progress” in enhancing its quality management system and preparing for the future. However, Calhoun will not be steering BA through these transitions, as he announced his retirement shortly after the second quarter earnings report.

On August 8, former Rockwell Collins and RTX executive Robert Kelly Ortberg was appointed Boeing’s new CEO. Unlike his recent predecessors, Ortberg brings a background in Mechanical Engineering, which signals a shift towards prioritizing engineering and safety. This move could address previous criticisms of cost-cutting measures and refocus the company on improving aircraft safety, ultimately benefiting shareholders by mitigating the risk of future incidents.

Can Boeing Recover?

Despite recent safety setbacks, BA’s demand for its planes remains surprisingly strong. By the end of the second quarter, the company had amassed a hefty backlog of $516 billion, which includes over 5,400 commercial plane orders. The Farnborough Airshow further highlighted this demand with 118 new orders and commitments worth $17.1 billion.

This indicates that, despite its current challenges, the appetite for the company’s planes is robust. The path to recovery will depend on Boeing’s ability to address safety issues and lift the FAA’s production cap on the 737 MAX. If the company can make these adjustments, it could quickly regain its footing, especially since it showed promising progress in 2023.

Moreover, the air travel market is set to hit new highs this year, with Airbus projecting increased air traffic in the coming years. This provides Boeing with ample growth opportunities, provided it can navigate its current issues. Street expects the company’s revenue to increase by 20.7% year-over-year in the fiscal year 2025, with a projected EPS of $4.06.

Despite the promising growth prospects, investors should be aware of several risks. There’s no guarantee that Boeing won’t face another safety incident, as seen earlier this year, which could disrupt production and financial stability. Additionally, Airbus continues to outpace the company, and the emerging Chinese C919 could erode market share if Boeing faces more setbacks. While the aerospace giant has promising prospects, navigating these risks will be crucial to sustaining long-term growth and investor confidence.

Should you Invest in Boeing?

While BA’s market cap of $110.36 billion might suggest stability, it’s far from a safe bet. With no dividends since 2020 and a streak of unprofitability since 2018, BA’s investment appeal hinges on its turnaround potential.

The big question is whether or not the new CEO, Kelly Ortberg, can turn things around and revive the company’s fortunes. If Ortberg successfully navigates the company’s current challenges, there could be a significant upside. However, until then, investing in BA is decidedly riskier than it once was.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: Can Boeing Recover? Analyzing the Company’s Path to Profitability

Opinions Stock Market News

17 Aug

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (23,283 contracts) with the Nikkei 225 (1,652 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-57,441 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-16,647 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-10,661 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-6,132 contracts) and with the Nasdaq-Mini (-4,127 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (93 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (80 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Russell-Mini (76 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (62 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (27 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (93.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (68.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (61.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (69.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (62.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (72.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (52.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (58.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (75.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (83.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (79.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (65.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (27.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (44.2 percent)

Russell-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (44 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (37 percent) and the VIX (36 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-9 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (-9 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (35.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (18.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-1.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (14.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-8.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (12.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-3.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (8.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (44.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (33.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (36.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (27.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-9.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (3.5 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -20,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 23,283 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,545 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	45.6	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	41.0	6.2
– Net Position:	-20,262	18,416	1,846
– Gross Longs:	95,786	182,837	26,785
– Gross Shorts:	116,048	164,421	24,939
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.2	0.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.9	-40.9	19.8

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -23,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -57,441 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	70.9	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	73.2	8.9
– Net Position:	-23,451	-47,518	70,969
– Gross Longs:	285,987	1,441,253	250,900
– Gross Shorts:	309,438	1,488,771	179,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.2	33.3	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	7.0	-15.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,132 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	59.6	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	64.2	13.4
– Net Position:	1,237	-3,784	2,547
– Gross Longs:	18,012	48,794	13,516
– Gross Shorts:	16,775	52,578	10,969
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.3	32.7	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.9	7.7	1.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,484 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,611 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	60.9	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	69.6	11.5
– Net Position:	8,484	-21,221	12,737
– Gross Longs:	49,051	148,524	40,833
– Gross Shorts:	40,567	169,745	28,096
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.3	29.2	78.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	-0.0	4.4

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -13,256 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	76.3	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	75.2	5.0
– Net Position:	-13,256	4,580	8,676
– Gross Longs:	65,225	323,855	29,794
– Gross Shorts:	78,481	319,275	21,118
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.7	23.4	58.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.1	-40.0	0.7

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -75 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,727 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	60.9	21.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	59.2	22.3
– Net Position:	-75	223	-148
– Gross Longs:	2,405	8,179	2,846
– Gross Shorts:	2,480	7,956	2,994
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.5	28.0	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.6	-21.8	-22.4

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,102 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,647 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,455 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.3	90.6	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	82.9	1.5
– Net Position:	-38,102	32,301	5,801
– Gross Longs:	26,554	379,042	11,882
– Gross Shorts:	64,656	346,741	6,081
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.0	70.0	45.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	8.6	2.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

16 Aug

Week Ahead: NAS100 set for Jackson Hole shake up?

By ForexTime

NAS100 ↑ 13% from August low

Friday speech by Fed Powell to impact Fed cut bets

Watch out for FOMC minutes mid-week

Index trading roughly 7% away from all-time high

Key levels – 18400, 19500, 20100

It’s that time of the year again with the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium around the corner…

But before we discuss the importance of this event, here is a breakdown of the data releases and events scheduled for the upcoming week:

Monday, 19th Aug

JP225: Japan core machine orders
US500: US Conference Board leading index
US Democrat National Convention

Tuesday, 20th Aug

CN50: China loan prime rates
CAD: Canada CPI
SEK: Swedish rate decision
EU50: Eurozone CPI
TWN: Taiwan export orders

Wednesday 21st Aug

JP225: Japan trade
ZAR: South Africa CPI
NAS100: US FOMC minutes

Thursday, 22nd Aug

EU50: Eurozone & Germany PMI, consumer confidence
TWN: Taiwan jobless rate
UK100: UK S&P global PMI
US500: US initial jobless claims, S&P Global PMI

Friday, 23rd Aug

CAD: Canada retail sales
JP225: Japan CPI
SG20: Singapore CPI
TWN: Taiwan industrial production
NAS100: Fed Chair Powell speech at Jackson Hole

What is the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium?

It’s an annual event organised by the Kansas City Fed in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This year it will be held from August 22nd – August 24th.

Attendees from central bankers, finance ministers and economists congregate to discuss pressing global economic issues.

Why is it such a big deal?

Anything discussed during the symposium could trigger market volatility, especially if it has to do with monetary policy.

A trip down memory lane…

In August 2022, Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium was firmly hawkish as he outlined plans to combat inflation. This triggered a selloff on the S&P500, resulting in a 4% decline for the week.

Last year, Powell maintained a hawkish tilt by stating that the Fed was prepared to raise rates further if needed – citing high inflation.

What to expect this year?

It’s been a wild week for US markets with recent data soothing recession fears.

Still, Fed Chair Powell is expected to signal that a September rate cut is in the bag. But with the August jobs and inflation report published before the Fed’s September meeting, the size of the cut may remain a mystery.

Traders have currently fully priced in a 25-basis point Fed cut in September, with the probability of a 50-basis point cut at 33%.

NAS100 under the spotlight

There are a handful of assets that could rocked by Powell’s speech, but FXTM’s NAS100 has caught our attention due to its sensitivity to US interest rates.

NAS100 - W1

Note: FXTM’s NAS100 tracks the underlying benchmark Nasdaq 100 index.

It has been somewhat of a rollercoaster month for the index thanks to shifting monetary policy expectations and risk appetite.

Despite the flat month-to-date gains, prices have rallied 13% from Augusts low of 17247. Bulls seem to be back in action with the index knocking on the 19500 resistances as of writing.

FXTM’s NAS100 index could push higher if Powell strikes a dovish tone and signals that US rates will be cut in September.

Should Powell sound less dovish than expected and provide no fresh insight into the Feds thinking, this could weigh on the NAS100.

Keep eye on the FOMC minutes

Before Powell’s big speech on Friday, the FOMC minutes mid-week may provide some insight into the Feds thinking for the rest of 2024. Should the minutes come across as dovish, this could provide support to the NAS100.

Technical forces

Prices are turning bullish on the daily charts with the NAS100 challenging the 19500-resistance level. The candlesticks are firmly above the 100 and 200-day SMA but the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is slowly approaching overbought territory.

A solid weekly close above 19500 may encourage an incline toward 20100 and the all-time high at 20796.

Should 19500 prove to be reliable resistance, this could trigger a decline to 18400, the 200-day SMA and 17247.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

14 Aug

FXTM’s CHINAH: On breakout watch ahead of key events

By ForexTime

Potential trading opportunities on horizon for CHINAH

Raft of China data, Alibaba & JD.com earnings on Thursday

CHINAH respecting bearish channel on D1 charts

Key levels of interest – 5965, 6100 & 6225

If you are seeking fresh market opportunities, then look no further…

FXTM’s CHINAH which tracks the underlying Hang Seng China Enterprise index is trading around key daily resistance ahead of tomorrow’s event-heavy trading session.

On Thursday, key economic data from China and earnings from two Chinese e-commerce giants could trigger significant price swings on the CHINAH index.

CHINAH

But before we discuss how to take advantage of this trading opportunity, here are some fun facts about the CHINAH index:

Gained roughly 4.5% year-to-date

Down 14.3% from its 2024 high at 7025

Respecting bearish channel on D1 chart

The lowdown…

Chinese shares have been on the decline over the past few weeks as China growth fears weighed on sentiment. Since May, FXTM’s CHINAH has recorded two consecutive months of losses and currently down over 1% in August.

CHINAH W1

Here are 3 forces that may move the index on Thursday:

1) China policy rate + key data

The People’s Bank of China (PBoc) is expected to maintain its one-year medium-term lending faculty (MLF) rate at 2.3%.

So much focus will be on the barrage of data release, including the industrial production, retail sales and jobless rate among other key reports. Ultimately, better-than-expected data could boost confidence over China’s economic outlook – stimulating appetite for riskier such as the CHINAH index. Should overall economic data disappoint, this may drag the stock index lower.

2) Alibaba earnings

Alibaba accounts for almost 9% of CHINAH’s weighting – claiming the title of biggest stock within the index.

This alone suggests that its earnings release before US markets open on Thursday could translate to heightened volatility for the stock index. Markets are forecasting Alibaba’s US listed shares to move 5.7% either up or down when US markets on Thursday.

Much focus will be on any updates regarding its cloud and AI-related efforts. Should the Chinese e-commerce giant’s earnings exceed market expectations, this may push Alibaba shares higher along with the CHINAH index.

3) JD.com earnings

It will be wise to also keep an eye on JD.com which accounts for just over 2% of CHINAH. Markets are forecasting JD.com US listed shares to move 6.4% either up or down when US markets open on Thursday, just hours after its earnings are announced.

Investors will direct their attention toward profitability and how its e-commerce business performed in Q2 amid the fierce competition among major players in China. A strong set of results may support JD.com stocks along with the CHINAH index, and vice versa.

Note: Watch out for the incoming US July CPI report released later today. This could be a huge risk event that rattles global financial markets and influences overall risk sentiment. Its impacts may be reflected on the CHINAH when China markets open on Thursday.

Technical forces…

The trend remains bearish on the daily charts as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. However, bulls seem to be lingering in the vicinity with prices trading near a key daily resistance at 6100.

A strong daily close above this level could encourage a move toward the 50-day SMA at 6255 and 6360.

Should 6100 prove to be reliable resistance, prices may slip to 5965 before retesting 5800.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

13 Aug

UK100: Set for more wild price swings?

By ForexTime

Raft of UK data could rock UK100 this week

UK CPI sparked moves of ↑ 0.9% & ↓ 0.8% over past year

Incoming US CPI data may set tone for markets

Key levels of interest – 8120, 8200, 8310

Watch this space because FXTM’s UK100 index could see significant price swings!

That’s right, a raft of UK economic data over the next few days may inject the stock index with fresh volatility. We have already seen some action this morning after a surprise drop in the UK’s unemployment rate for June triggered a selloff.

UK100

The strong jobs data cooled bets around BoE rate cuts – boosting the British Pound as a result.

Note: Over 80% of the revenues from FTSE100 companies come from outside of the UK. When the pound appreciates, it results in lower revenues for those companies that acquire sales from overseas – dragging the UK100 lower as a result. The same is true vice versa.

Despite the aggressive selloff last Monday, prices remain trapped within a range on the weekly charts with support at 8150 and resistance at 8450.

UK100 weekly

Note: UK100 tracks the FTSE100 index – the benchmark measuring the stock performance of the 100 largest listed companies on the London Stock Exchange.

With all the above said, here are 3 major economic events that may trigger significant volatility:

1) UK July CPI report – Wednesday, 14th August

The incoming consumer price index report may influence bets around when the BoE will cut rates again in 2024.

Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (July 2024 vs. July 2023) to rise 2.3% from 2.0% in the prior month.
Core CPI year-on-year to cool 3.4% from 3.5% in the prior month.
CPI month-on-month (July 2024 vs June 2024) to cool 0.1% from 0.1% in the prior month.

UK inflation rate is expected to have risen in July. If the incoming figures confirm this, then this may push back BoE cut bets.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the UK CPI report has triggered upside moves on the UK100 as much as 0.9% and declines of 0.8% in a 6-hour window post-release.

2) UK Q2 GDP data – Thursday 15th August

Beyond the UK CPI report, all eyes will be on second-quarter GDP figures published on Thursday.

Markets expect a modest quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.6%, slightly slower than the 0.7% seen in Q1. Also, keep an eye on the latest industrial production figures which could provide additional insight into the health of the UK economy.

Should the data support the case for lower UK interest rates, this could boost the UK100.

If the reports push back BoE cut bets – this may hit the UK100 as the pound strengthens.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the UK GDP report has triggered upside moves on the UK100 as much as 0.7% and declines of 0.6% in a 6-hour window post-release.

3) US July CPI

Outside of the United Kingdom, all eyes will be on the US July inflation report published on Wednesday.

Markets remain edgy due to the weak jobs report earlier this month with US recession fears lingering in the air. The incoming US CPI report may shape expectations around aggressive Fed rate cuts this year.

Traders have already priced in a 25-basis point move next month with a 50% probability of a 50-basis point cut.

Given how this key report may set the tone for markets, indices across the globe including the UK100 may be impacted.

4) Technical forces

On the technical front, the UK100 is flirting around the 50 and 100-day SMA with prices still trapped within a range. The index could be waiting for a potent fundamental spark to trigger its next significant move either up or down.

A strong daily close above 8200 could encourage a move higher toward 8310 and 8400.

Should prices dip below the 100-day SMA, this could encourage a decline to 8120 and 8040.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

10 Aug

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Russell & S&P 500

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell & S&P 500

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (31,390 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (22,034 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (10,189 contracts), the VIX (6,108 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (2,136 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,360 contracts) and with the DowJones-Mini (-6,169 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Russell-Mini & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Russell-Mini (83 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (72 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (70 percent) and VIX (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (44 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (68.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (61.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (69.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (66.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (72.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (82.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (58.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (42.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (83.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (61.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (65.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (47.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (44.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (46.7 percent)

Russell-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (34 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (27 percent), the VIX (19 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (18.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (-0.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (14.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (18.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (12.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (19.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (8.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (9.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (33.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (16.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (27.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (11.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (3.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (3.5 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -43,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,108 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	51.1	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	38.7	9.0
– Net Position:	-43,545	55,847	-12,302
– Gross Longs:	99,536	231,326	28,694
– Gross Shorts:	143,081	175,479	40,996
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.0	40.9	32.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-8.5	-48.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 33,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 22,034 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	69.5	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	75.3	8.2
– Net Position:	33,990	-118,575	84,585
– Gross Longs:	326,376	1,407,615	250,827
– Gross Shorts:	292,386	1,526,190	166,242
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.8	23.5	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.8	-10.0	-10.8

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 7,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,538 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	57.5	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	66.1	14.7
– Net Position:	7,369	-7,321	-48
– Gross Longs:	21,484	48,536	12,361
– Gross Shorts:	14,115	55,857	12,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.3	27.6	47.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-8.7	-10.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,611 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,422 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	60.0	17.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	72.6	9.8
– Net Position:	12,611	-31,501	18,890
– Gross Longs:	50,888	149,544	43,363
– Gross Shorts:	38,277	181,045	24,473
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.7	18.0	90.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-14.5	15.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 31,390 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,985 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	74.9	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	76.4	5.0
– Net Position:	-2,595	-6,502	9,097
– Gross Longs:	70,303	320,588	30,609
– Gross Shorts:	72,898	327,090	21,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.3	16.3	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.6	-32.2	9.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,727 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	63.0	24.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	56.3	18.4
– Net Position:	-1,727	889	838
– Gross Longs:	1,625	8,358	3,278
– Gross Shorts:	3,352	7,469	2,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.4	32.7	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.1	-21.1	-2.8

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,360 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,095 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	89.7	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	86.1	1.1
– Net Position:	-21,455	15,280	6,175
– Gross Longs:	31,139	378,833	10,919
– Gross Shorts:	52,594	363,553	4,744
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.2	52.4	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.5	-2.7	-3.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

07 Aug

Inflation-Resilient Stocks: Why Progressive (PGR) Stands Out

By The Ino.com Team

In July, U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly ticked up, offering a glimmer of optimism despite ongoing concerns about inflation and rising borrowing costs. The Federal Reserve’s closely watched gauge revealed that inflation eased slightly in June, with the personal consumption expenditures price index inching up by just 0.1% on the month and 2.5% year-over-year. While this slightly improved from May’s 2.6% increase, inflation still hovers above the Fed’s long-term target of 2%, keeping the door open for a potential interest rate cut in September.

In such an inflationary environment, the insurance industry emerges as a safe harbor for investors seeking stability. Insurance isn’t just a safety net; it’s a lifeline for individuals and businesses alike, offering protection from unforeseen events and often fulfilling legal and financial requirements. The industry is notoriously competitive, with many insurers struggling to stand out. However, The Progressive Corporation (PGR) has distinguished itself by excelling in balancing risk and reward.

Progressive’s Strategy for Thriving in Inflationary Times

In recent years, the insurance sector has battled rising inflation, which has driven up repair and replacement costs and impacted profitability. Yet Progressive has adeptly navigated the storm. Since its public debut in 1971, the powerhouse automotive insurer has consistently aimed for a combined ratio of 96%, ensuring it makes $4 in profit for every $100 in premiums received.

While many auto insurers struggled with their worst loss ratios in two decades last year, PGR achieved a combined ratio of 94.5%. This year, they’ve done even better, with a combined ratio of 91.9% in the first half. This strong performance has translated into impressive stock returns, with shares up more than 70% over the past year and nearly 35% year-to-date.

For the second quarter that ended June 30, 2024, PGR’s net premiums earned increased 19% year-over-year to $17.21 billion. Its net income came in at $1.46 billion, or $2.48 per common share, up 322.3% and 335.1% year-over-year, respectively. The company generated total revenues of $35.38 billion year-to-date, compared to $29.66 billion in 2023.

Street expects PGR’s revenue and EPS for the third quarter (ending September 2024) to increase 21.1% and 25.5% year-over-year to $18.89 billion and $2.65, respectively. Moreover, the company has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, including the second quarter.

What sets Progressive apart is its innovative approach to insurance. As one of the pioneers in using telematics, or driver data, to price insurance policies, the company has leveraged technology to stay ahead of its competitors.

Moreover, PGR’s non-GAAP PEG ratio is a mere 0.06, indicating that despite its solid growth prospects, the stock is undervalued, making it an attractive option for growth-seeking investors. The company’s strong performance across different market conditions due to its beta of 0.36 further enhances its appeal.

Progressive’s conservative investment strategy, with a focus on shorter-dated debt investments, positions it well to benefit from sustained higher interest rates, making it a strong long-term hold for investors. Morgan Stanley analyst Bob Jian Huang forecasts that the company will capture over 18% of the market by 2028, thanks to its competitive strength and innovative edge.

Progressive vs. Allstate: Which Stock Offers Greater Investment Potential?

While Progressive has adeptly managed rising inflation and repair costs with innovative approaches like telematics, The Allstate Corporation (ALL) has faced its own set of challenges, particularly from natural disasters and high inflation. In 2023, U.S. home insurers experienced their worst underwriting losses this century, with net underwriting losses reaching an eye-watering $15.2 billion. This was largely due to increasing populations in high-risk areas like California and Texas, which exacerbated the impact of natural catastrophes.

To combat these pressures, Allstate has proposed a substantial 34% increase in homeowners’ insurance premiums. This move, pending approval from the California Department of Insurance, aims to mitigate the financial impact of escalating claims and weather-related damages. This isn’t unprecedented, as insurance companies, including State Farm, have also sought similar rate hikes based on claims history and market conditions.

Although this move mirrors PGR’s strategy of adjusting premiums to maintain profitability amidst rising costs, ALL’s focus has been more on addressing the financial stress from natural disasters rather than leveraging technology for competitive advantage.

Despite these hurdles, ALL shares have surged more than 52% over the past year and 22.3% year-to-date, demonstrating strong performance in a turbulent market.

Financially, the company has delivered solid results that are at par with Progressive’s financial performance. ALL’s consolidated net revenues for the second quarter ended June 30, 2024, increased 12.4% year-over-year to $15.71 billion. The company’s adjusted net income amounted to $429 million and $1.61 per share, compared to an adjusted net loss of $1.16 billion and $4.42 per share in the year-ago quarter, respectively. Furthermore, its property-liability insurance premiums earned rose 11.9% year-over-year to $13.34 billion.

Analysts expect ALL’s revenue for the quarter ending September 30, 2024, to increase 8.4% year-over-year to $15.71 billion. Its EPS for the same period is expected to increase 273.6% year-over-year to $3.03. It surpassed the consensus EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters.

Moreover, the company’s strong financial health enables it to consistently deliver value to its shareholders. With 13 years of consecutive dividend growth, ALL pays a $3.68 per share dividend annually, translating to a 2.12% yield on the current share price. Its four-year dividend yield is 2.49%. The company’s dividend payouts have grown at CAGRs of 10.3% and 13.5% over the past three and five years, respectively.

Allstate is currently trading at a relatively discounted valuation. The stock’s forward EV/Sales multiple stands at 0.87, which is below the industry average of 3.17x and its five-year median of 0.97x. This attractive valuation provides a margin of safety for investors, reducing downside risk while offering substantial upside potential.

Given these factors, Allstate presents a strong investment case. However, when comparing it to Progressive, ALL’s more traditional approach may not offer the same innovative edge. While both companies exhibit resilience and growth prospects, PGR’s forward-thinking strategies and consistent performance in diverse market conditions position it as the more compelling choice for those seeking robust long-term returns.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: Inflation-Resilient Stocks: Why Progressive (PGR) Stands Out

Opinions Stock Market News

26 Jul

Week Ahead: Trillion Dollar Titans In Focus

By ForexTime

4 of the so-called “Magnificent 7” set to publish earnings

Combined market cap of 4 tech giants over $9 trillion

Beyond earnings, key focus remains on AI initiatives

Meta could move almost 10% ↑ or ↓ post-earnings

Apple biggest company in the world reports results Friday

An exceptional list of key risk events could present fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead.

Rate decisions my major central banks to the US monthly jobs report and corporate earnings from the most valuable companies in the world will be in focus:

Monday, 29th July

US30: McDonald’s earnings
NETH25: Heineken earnings
NAS100: Nvidia & Meta fireside chat

Tuesday, 30th July

EU50: Eurozone economic/consumer confidence, GDP
GER40: Germany CPI, GDP
JP225: Japan unemployment
USDInd: US consumer confidence
NAS100: Microsoft earnings

Wednesday, 31st July

AU200: Australia CPI, retail sales
CN50: China PMI’s
EU50: Eurozone CPI, Germany unemployment
JP225: BoJ rate decision, industrial production, retail sales
TWN: Taiwan GDP
US500: Meta Platform earnings, Fed rate decision

Thursday, 1st August

CN50: China Caixin manufacturing PMI
EU50: Eurozone/Germany manufacturing PMI
UK100: BoE rate decision, manufacturing PMI
USDInd: initial jobless claims, ISM manufacturing
NAS100: Apple, Amazon earnings

Friday, 2nd August

US500: US June NFP report

Our attention falls on earnings from the trillion-dollar club after disappointing results from Alphabet and Tesla fanned fears over the A.I. frenzy being overblown.

As of writing, US equities are heading for a second week of declines after recording their worst day since 2020 on Wednesday.

Four of the so-called “Magnificent” 7 tech giants with a combined market cap of over $9 trillion are set to publish their results in the week ahead. This is what you need to know:

1) Microsoft

Microsoft reports its fiscal fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday 30th after US markets close.

Despite shedding over 6% this month, its shares are still up roughly 10% year-to-date thanks to the A.I. frenzy. The bar has been set quite high with investors looking for solid results to support its whooping $3.1 trillion market valuation. Much focus will be on Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform business which fueled the tech giant’s earnings beat in previous quarters and any fresh updates on its AI initiatives.

Markets are forecasting a 4.9% move, either Up or Down, for Microsoft stocks post earnings.

Micro

2) Meta Platforms

Meta is set to report second-quarter earnings after US market close on Wednesday 31st July.

Its shares are up almost 30% this year amid the excitement around AI translating to big profit in the tech arena. While the company is expected to report year-over-year revenue and earnings growth, it’s all about the strength of its advertising business. Any new insight on AI opportunities especially after the launch of Llama 3.1 could be welcomed by investors.

Markets are forecasting a 9% move, either Up or Down, for Meta stocks post earnings.

3) Amazon

On Thursday 1st of August after US markets close, Amazon will publish its second quarter earnings.

Quarterly revenues are seen rising to $148.8 billion from $134.4 billion in the prior year, equating to a near 11% increase. Still, much focus will be on Amazons cloud computing and advertising business in addition to any updates on AI to gauge its business outlook.

Markets are forecasting a 7% move, either Up or Down, for Amazon stocks post earnings.

Amazon

4) Apple

The most valuable company in the entire world with a market cap of $3.3 trillion reports its third quarter earnings on Thursday 1st after US markets close.

The titan is expected to report year-over-year revenue and earnings growth. However, attention will be on the performance of iPhone sales – especially due to the challenges in China. Beyond the earnings investors will be looking for any fresh updates on its new AI generative software or possible guidance for the upcoming quarter.

Still, Apple shares are up 13% this year with markets projecting a 4% move, either Up or Down, for Apple stocks post earnings.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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