Archive for Stock Market News – Page 12

06 Mar

UK100: Waits on spring budget 2024

By ForexTime

  • UK100 trapped within range
  • UK Spring budget could impact index
  • Prices above 50, 100 and 200-day SMA
  • Double bottom on D1 chart
  • Key weekly resistance at 7689.2

After swinging within a range on the weekly charts, the UK100 which tracks the underlying FTSE100 index could be gearing up for a significant move.

Over the past few months, the index has been influenced by various fundamental forces ranging from the pound’s value to corporate earnings and monetary policy expectations.

Note: The FTSE100 has a strong international focus with 75% of revenues from FTSE100 companies coming from outside the UK.

Looking at the recent price action, a breakout could be on the horizon. This may be triggered by the UK Spring Budget this afternoon, presented by Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt.

  • The budget could provide fresh insight into the country’s economic outlook, finances, public spending, and government’s plan for tax.
  • Given how a UK general election is fast approaching, there is growing speculation around Hunt presenting tax cuts to shift the polls in favour of his own party.
  • Such a development may fuel inflation, which remained unchanged at 4% in January.
  • Ultimately, complicating the Bank of England’s ability to cut interest rates as much as markets expect.

Note: Traders are currently pricing in a 42% probability of a 25-basis point BoE cut by June, with a cut by August fully priced in.

How will this impact the UK100?

When the pound appreciates, it results to lower revenues for FTSE100 companies that acquire sales from overseas, pulling the UK100 lower as a result. The same is true vice versa.

So essentially,

  • The UK100 could see fresh downside pressure if the spring budget confirms tax cuts and strengthens the pound as investors push back BoE cut bets.
  • Should the spring budget omit anything about tax cuts and the pound weakens, this may push the UK100 higher.

Regarding the technical picture…

The FTSE 100 Index (UK100) on the daily time frame made a double bottom and this might signal the end of the current down trend. There is a strong weekly resistance level that will need to be broken though, and this remains to be seen.

On the 4-hour chart an uptrend is in progress with the above-mentioned weekly resistance level at 7689.2 lying right in ahead. Based on projected normal ebb and flow price structures, that means there are two scenarios.

  • Number 1 is that the price bounces off the resistance level and after a possible with a retest, a short opportunity might ensue.
  • Number 2 is that the price breaks through the resistance level, retests the resistance turned support level and then continues upward. In this case a long opportunity.

Both the 50 Exponential Moving Average and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Oscillators confirm that the above-stated scenarios are a possibility.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News
05 Mar

New FXTM stock index hits record high!

By ForexTime 

  • FXTM launches 6 new stock indices
  • 11 of FXTM’s 18 total indices hit all-time peaks so far in 2024
  • TW50 index is latest to join the record-high party
  • TW50 historically outperformed many Asian/European peers
  • Less-volatile TW50 may be more suited for risk averse traders

 

This week, FXTM launched 6 new stock indices.

This now brings FXTM’s tally to 18 different stock indices to choose from.

And the TW50 index made it a debut to remember!

Since launching across FXTM’s trading platforms yesterday …

The TW50 has posted its highest-ever intraday price of 1647.5 today (Tuesday, March 5th)!

This index, which tracks Taiwanese stocks, also appears on course to close the day above 1640 for the first time in its history!

FUN FACT: Of the 18 stock indices currently offered by FXTM, 11 have already hit their respective all-time peaks so far in 2024.

 

What is a stock index?

Imagine a stock index being a basket of many different stocks.

The index measures the overall performance of those stocks inside that “basket”.

 

What does the TW50 stock index track?

FXTMs TW50 stock index tracks the performance of the FTSE Taiwan RIC Capped Index.

This index aims to capture the overall performance of 119 different large- and mid-cap stocks in Taiwan.

 

 

3 key things to know about the TW50 index:

1) Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is the largest member of the TW50 index!

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC), accounts for 21% of the total index.

Hence, with the mania over artificial intelligence in full swing (AI is expected to be a major earnings driver for chipmaking companies), the boost to TSMC’s share prices have helped push the TW50 to a fresh all-time peak.

 

2) Performs better than many Asian/European counterparts

So far in 2024, the FTSE Taiwan RIC Capped Index has climbed by 5.8%.

Amongst the 6 Asian stock indices offered by FXTM …

TW50 is the second-biggest gainer on a year-to-date basis (at the time of writing).

First place belongs to the JAP225 index (up 20% year-to-date), while the CN50 index is in third place (+4.3% year-to-date).

For a longer historical timeframe, the FTSE Taiwan RIC Capped Index has surged by 64.8% since 16th June 2000.

NOTE: The FTSE Taiwan RIC Capped Index was launched on 29 September 2017. However, historical data is only available from June 2000 onwards.

That has the TW50 index comfortably beating European stock indices such as the EU50, the FRA40, and even the UK100 over the same period (16th June 2000 – present)!

 

3) Lower Volatility

The creators of this index, FTSE Russell, intended for its FTSE Taiwan RIC Capped Index to have relatively more stability (less volatile).

This is done by more evenly distributing the weights assigned to the stocks on this index across 10 different industries (e.g. tech, financial, industrial, etc).

NOTE: To be clear, tech stocks still account for 60% of the TW50, making it a tech-heavy index.

Since June 2000, this TW50 index has an average 30-day volatility reading of 19.28.

Over the same period, the TW50 has demonstrated less risk of crazy price swings (volatility) on average compared to:

  • NAS100: 23.16
  • JAP225: 21.29
  • HK50: 21.07
  • GER40: 20.49
  • EU50: 20.20
(numbers above are 30-day volatility figures)

Hence, while traders may have less of a chance at stunning gains on outsized upswings, the TW50’s more-stable performance could also lower the risk of jaw-dropping losses from sharp unexpected declines.

In short, given its less-volatile nature, risk-averse traders may find the TW50 index more suited for them.

 

How much higher can TW50 climb?

Over the next 12 months, Wall Street analysts expect that the FTSE Taiwan RIC Capped Index can add on another 100 index points to reach 1745.8.

If so, that represents a further 6% of potential gains for the TW50.

However, given its stunning, TSMC-fuelled ascent of late, this index could be ripe for a technical pullback in the near future.

After all, its 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is already well above the 70 threshold which marks textbook “overbought” conditions.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News
05 Mar

Stocks: What This “Record Extreme” May Be Signaling

“The total easily exceeds the prior net long extreme”

By Elliott Wave International

When most everyone agrees on the future trend of a market, it’s almost guaranteed that the market will go in the other direction — sooner rather than later.

The reason why is that there is no one left to convince, hence, the market in question will likely have difficulty going in the predicted direction.

As Robert Prechter notes in a classic Elliott Wave Theorist (a monthly publication which analyzes major financial and cultural trends):

The more convincing the arguments seem, the surer one can be that a consensus is signaling a turn in the other direction.

With that in mind, consider this chart and commentary from the February Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which covers major U.S. financial markets:

[A] new record was recently reached in the net long position of Small Traders as published weekly in the Commitment of Traders Report. The combined net long futures position of Small Traders in the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and DJIA soared to an all-time high of $51.59 billion on January 9. The total easily exceeds the prior net long extreme of $42.06 billion in September 2021.

As you may recall, that prior peak reading in investor sentiment occurred just weeks before the November 2021 top in the NASDAQ indexes.

That doesn’t mean that the exact same scenario will play out again.

However, keep in mind that the patterns of investor psychology tend to be similar each time around — as markets go from an uptrend to a downtrend and then back again.

And these patterns don’t just apply to the typical retail or Main Street investor, they also apply to money managers who may oversee portfolios in the tens of billions of dollars. Here’s a quote from another classic Theorist:

Small traders are typically on the wrong side of the market at the turns. You might think that large traders, because they have a lot more money, are right a lot, but they are likewise usually wrong at the turns.

The repetitive patterns of investor psychology show up as Elliott waves on the charts of widely traded financial markets.

If you are unfamiliar with the Wave Principle, read Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from this “must read” book:

Without Elliott, there appear to be an infinite number of possibilities for market action. What the Wave Principle provides is a means of first limiting the possibilities and then ordering the relative probabilities of possible future market paths. Elliott’s highly specific rules reduce the number of valid alternatives to a minimum.

No analytical method can guarantee a particular outcome in financial markets but given Elliott waves reflect the repetitive patterns of investor psychology, the knowledge those waves provide about the market’s position within the behavioral continuum is extensive and second to none.

You may be interested in knowing that you can access the online version of the book for free once you join Club EWI, the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community.

A Club EWI membership is free and allows you access to a wealth of Elliott wave resources on investing and trading without any obligations.

Just follow the link to get started: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — get instant and free access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Stocks: What This “Record Extreme” May Be Signaling. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Opinions Stock Market News
03 Mar

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & Russell-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the MSCI EAFE-Mini (14,518 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (5,977 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (1,460 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-15,315 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (-5,693 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-1,574 contracts) and the VIX (-1,633 contracts).

Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

 

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (90 percent) and the VIX (77 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Russell-Mini (72 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nikkei 225 (29 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (31 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (77.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (78.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (31.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (32.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (89.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (87.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (55.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (78.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (72.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (67.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (29.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (40.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (49.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (34.1 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini & VIX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (14 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The VIX (3 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (1 percent) are the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-23 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (2.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (4.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-8.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-15.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (1.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-12.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-40.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-17.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-23.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-32.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-5.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-7.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (13.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-2.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,704 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,071 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.644.97.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.933.18.0
– Net Position:-40,70442,920-2,216
– Gross Longs:74,471162,35626,855
– Gross Shorts:115,175119,43629,071
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.019.685.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.6-4.512.6

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -224,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -218,530 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.773.211.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.367.27.7
– Net Position:-224,223141,21483,009
– Gross Longs:298,5381,716,692263,456
– Gross Shorts:522,7611,575,478180,447
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.359.470.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.25.46.4

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,188 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.551.315.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.072.411.6
– Net Position:18,188-21,9573,769
– Gross Longs:32,77953,39915,869
– Gross Shorts:14,59175,35612,100
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.96.462.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.3-6.317.3

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 10,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,561 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.553.213.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.959.411.1
– Net Position:10,246-17,7027,456
– Gross Longs:90,667153,36139,468
– Gross Shorts:80,421171,06332,012
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.033.196.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-40.823.114.2

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -18,228 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,977 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,205 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.580.26.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.178.74.1
– Net Position:-18,2287,95610,272
– Gross Longs:64,457413,10431,433
– Gross Shorts:82,685405,14821,161
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.225.663.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.020.23.5

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,574 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.165.625.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.248.113.7
– Net Position:-5,2943,1902,104
– Gross Longs:1,66911,9744,600
– Gross Shorts:6,9638,7842,496
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.055.371.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.8-0.815.4

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,518 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.786.93.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.584.12.0
– Net Position:-16,68411,9984,686
– Gross Longs:41,874375,97513,462
– Gross Shorts:58,558363,9778,776
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.149.440.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.9-13.0-3.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
02 Mar

GameStop (GME): 88% Shellacking Yet No Lesson Learned

“Every major peak gets cinematic treatment”

By Elliott Wave International

Back in early 2021, the meme stock craze was going strong.

As you’ll recall that craze was all over the news and revolved around favorite stocks promoted by largely novice traders via social media. This January 27, 2021 New York Times news item sums up the frenzy surrounding one of those stocks:

‘Dumb Money’ Is on GameStop, and It’s Beating Wall Street at Its Own Game

GameStop shares have soared 1,700 percent as millions of small investors, egged on by social media, employ a classic Wall Street tactic to put the squeeze — on Wall Street.

A few days later, after GameStop shares had fallen hard, the February 2021 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides analysis of major U.S. financial markets, offered this warning:

Every major peak gets cinematic treatment and the current one is no exception. … The Wall Street Journal reported, “Netflix, MGM Race to Produce Projects About GameStop Saga.”

After that big decline in Gamestop shares in late January and early February 2021, the share price did bounce back, but has since fallen dramatically. Even so, some traders are not fazed, which is testimony to the high degree of overall optimism toward financial markets.

The recently published February Elliott Wave Financial Forecast provides an update with this chart and commentary:

The sustained public tolerance for falling prices is well illustrated by the resilience of retail demand for GameStop shares. GME is down 88% from its intraday high of $120.75 on January 28, 2021. But the faith in GME as a vehicle for wealth continues. … On January 22, TheStreet’s “meme maven” columnist added a host of “Reasons to Buy GameStop.” There’s just no quenching the demand for GME shares.

Again, this speaks to the high degree of optimism toward the market as a whole and our latest analysis of the main U.S. stock indexes is something you need to see for yourself.

As you might imagine, the main way Elliott Wave International analyzes financial markets is by employing the Elliott wave model.

If you’d like to learn the details of the Wave Principle, read Frost & Prechter’s definitive text on the subject, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from this Wall Street classic book:

In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that stock market prices trend and reverse in recognizable patterns. The patterns he discerned are repetitive in form but not necessarily in time or amplitude. Elliott isolated five such patterns, or “waves,” that recur in market price data. He named, defined and illustrated these patterns and their variations. He then described how they link together to form larger versions of themselves, how they in turn link to form the same patterns of the next larger size, and so on, producing a structured progression. He called this phenomenon The Wave Principle.

Would you like to read the entire book for free?

All that’s required for free access to the online version of the book is a Club EWI membership. Club EWI is the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community and is free to join. Members enjoy complimentary access to a wealth of Elliott wave insights regarding financial markets, investing and trading.

Follow this link to read the book for free: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline GameStop (GME): 88% Shellacking Yet No Lesson Learned. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Stock Market News
01 Mar

Week Ahead: Will US30 hit 40,000 milestone?

By ForexTime 

  • US30 ends Feb over 2% higher
  • Index set to be rocked by high risk-events
  • Watch out for Powell Testimony + NFP report
  • Bulls in control on D1/W1 timeframe
  • Key level of interest at 39300

The extraordinary list of high-risk events could inject markets with fresh volatility in the week ahead!

Investors will be dished out a platter of top-tier data, complemented with key central bank decisions and major political developments across the world:

Monday, 4th March

  • CHF: SNB publishes 2023 results
  • USD: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speech

Tuesday, 5th March

  • CNH: China National People’s Congress
  • EUR: Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI, PPI
  • GBP: UK S&P Global Services PMI
  • USD: US ISM services, S&P Global Services PMI
  • Super Tuesday in the United States

Wednesday, 6th March

  • EUR: Eurozone retail sales
  • GBP: UK Chancellor presents annual budget
  • CAD: BoC rate decision
  • USD: Fed Chair Jerome Powell testimony, Fed Beige Book

Thursday, 7th March

  • CNH: China trade, forex reserves
  • EUR: ECB rate decision
  • USD: Fed Chair Jerome Powell testimony
  • US President Joe Biden State of Union address

Friday, 8th March  

  • CAD: Canada unemployment
  • EUR: Eurozone GDP, Germany industrial production
  • USD: US February nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

Our focus falls on the US30, which tracks the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial average index – featuring 30 industry leaders in the US economy.

The US30 ended February over 2% higher, bagging its fourth consecutive months of gains thanks to technical and fundamental forces.

Fun fact: The Dow Jones is one of the oldest U.S. indexes, having been created in 1896.

Given how prices are hovering near record highs, the question is whether bulls can keep up the momentum – especially with the 40,000 milestone just a stone’s throw away.

Here are 3 factors that could impact the index:

 

  1. Fed Chair Powell’s 2-day Testimony

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony before Congress may offer investors crucial insight into future policy moves. Powell is expected to signal that the Fed is not in a rush to cut interest rates until inflation moves closer to the 2% target. It is worth keeping in mind that the US30 which tracks 30 of the largest US companies, remains influenced by Fed rate expectations.

  • If Powell strikes a hawkish note and signals that US rates will remain higher for longer, this may weigh on the US30 – inviting bears back into the scene.
  • Should the Fed Chair sound more dovish than expected and signal that rate cuts could be around the corner, this may push the index higher.

 

  1. US February NFP report

The US economy is expected to have created 190k jobs in February, a noticeable drop from the blowout 353k jobs added in January. However, this is still above Jerome Powell’s estimated neutral pace of 100k. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 3.7% while average hourly earnings are seen ticking lower to 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.6% in the prior period.

Note: before the US jobs report on Friday, watch out for other key US data releases earlier in the week and speeches by Fed officials.

Traders are currently pricing in a 90% probability of a 25-basis point cut by June 2024, according to Fed Funds futures.

  • The US30 is likely to trade lower if a strong US jobs report supports the case around the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer.
  • Should the NFP report disappoint, this could reinforce bets around the Fed cutting rates sooner than expected – boosting the US30 as a result.

 

  1. Technical forces

The US30 remains in an uptrend on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. Prices are trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD trade above zero. However, the Relative Strength Index is not far away from overbought territory with some signs of exhaustion below the 39300 level.

  • A solid breakout and daily close above 39300 may open a path towards fresh all-time highs with the next psychological level at 40000.
  • Should 39300 prove to be reliable resistance, this could trigger a decline back towards 38500 and the 50-day SMA at 38170.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News
29 Feb

AI, Digital Wallet Firm Picked for Sports Accelerator Program

Source: Streetwise Reports  (2/26/24)

Artificial intelligence (AI) and digital wallet provider firm Fobi AI Inc. announced it is one of ten companies picked from 1,500 applicants for the Comcast NBCUniversal SportsTech Accelerator program. Find out why one technical analyst says this company’s stock is about to break out into a bull market.

Artificial intelligence (AI) and digital wallet provider firm Fobi AI Inc. (FOBI:TSX) announced it is one of ten companies picked from 1,500 applicants for the Comcast NBCUniversal SportsTech Accelerator program.

The six-month program gives company officials opportunities to collaborate with leading sports brands like NBC Sports, NASCAR, the Premier League, the PGA Tour, Sky Sports, Comcast Spectator, and U.S. Olympic sports organizations, Fobi AI said.

Since it started in 2021, alumni of the SportsTech program have achieved 132 pilots, partnerships, and commercial deals with consortium partners.

“It’s an extraordinary opportunity for us to not only enhance our visibility but also establish direct connections within the partner network,” Fobi AI Chief Executive Officer Rob Anson said.

Fobi AI leverages AI, automation, and analytics to deliver data-driven, real-time applications to deliver speed, connectivity, and interoperability, according to its investor presentation. With recent acquisitions, the company is expanding its presence in the rapidly expanding digital wallet market dominated by companies like Apple and Google.

“But you certainly wouldn’t think so to look at its stock price and, like it or not, these wallets look set to be the future and to be introduced rapidly,” wrote Technical analyst Clive Maund on February 20.

“But you certainly wouldn’t think so to look at its stock price and, like it or not, these wallets look set to be the future and to be introduced rapidly,” wrote Technical analyst Clive Maund on February 20.

Over the past year, Fobi AI’s share price has decreased 83% from CA$0.51 on Feb. 24, 2023, to CA$0.085 on February 23, 2024.

However, Maund said that based on its one-year arithmetic chart, “factors have been in play for many weeks, suggesting that a breakout into a new bull market is incubating, and, furthermore, that it is likely to happen soon.”

Allowing Co.’s to Align Solutions With Potential Partners

In the SportsTech Accelerator program, the company will work with SportsTech advisors and learn market strategy, commercial business alignment, and adaptive business modeling.

“Every facet of our decision-making process aims to unlock startups that can become ‘scale-ups’ ready to impact the world of sports,” said Jenna Kurath, vice president of startup partnerships and head of Comcast NBCUniversal SportsTech. “The SportsTech program focuses not only on tackling complex business challenges for a vast cross-section of some of the world’s most recognized sports brands, but it additionally prepares founders to build sustainable businesses.”

The program is set to begin March 4 in Florida with behind-the-scenes looks at Universal Studios Florida, NASCAR’s Daytona International Speedway, and coverage of the PGA Tour and other sporting events.

This will allow the companies “to identify how to align their technology solutions to the business and operational needs of partners,” Comcast NBCUniversal noted in a release.

“The capstone of the program will take place at Rally Innovation in Indianapolis on August 27-28, 2024, where this year’s founders will showcase their tech innovations, putting a spotlight on their scale-up traction during the program to garner new business opportunities across the broader sports industry,” the release noted.

The Catalyst: Growth of Sectors Here to Stay

The AI and mobile wallet sectors are here to stay and are expected to be the focus of big growth. The company’s investor presentation said AI will generate US$15 trillion in revenue by 2030 and increase business efficiency by 40%. Four out of five companies say AI is a top priority in their business strategy.

By 2026, about 5.2 billion mobile wallet passes will be in use, it said. About 85% of wallet passes are never deleted (while 71% of apps are), and four out of five customers abandon transactions that require apps.

The continued emergence of digital credential digital wallet solutions is “at the forefront of everything that we hear about today,” Anson said in Fobi AI’s conference call with the media about its earnings in January.

Anson said the company operates in 150 countries and provides more than 100 million digital wallets.

“We’ve seen tremendous growth, not just in, of course, the scale of the product, but obviously now from international support with our acquisitions that we’ve made to date and the addition of some of our international tech resource team,” Anson said.

Last year, the company acquired the leading Spanish digital wallet agency Wallet-Com and the leading European digital wallet company Passwortks SA.

“This agreement with Wallet-Com not only marks Fobi’s fifth wallet pass acquisition but also the strategic acquisition of a leading digital wallet agency that will help reinforce Fobi’s strength and scale as a global wallet pass leader,” Anson said when the Wallet-Com transaction was announced. “This collaboration not only broadens our global footprint but also opens doors to exciting new prospects and innovative opportunities.”

Analyst: ‘Upside Breakout Soon’

The mobile wallet market was valued at about US$7.42 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.3% from 2023 to 2022, Grand View Research said in a report.

The COVID-19 pandemic had a positive effect on the market, researchers said.

“The pandemic pushed digital transactions and mobile payments across the world,” the report said. “It has accelerated the growth of the e-commerce industry toward new customers, firms, and types of products. For instance, according to the Census Bureau’s Annual Retail Trade Survey (ARTS), in the U.S., sales in the e-commerce sector surged by 43% or (US$)244.2 billion in 2020, the first year of the pandemic.”

Maund agreed that the AI and mobile wallet industries were huge growth markets. In the company’s one-year chart, the downtrend of Fobi AI’s stock has “morphed into a bullish Falling Wedge,” and downside momentum has eased during that period, he noted.

The third bullish factor is the buildup in upside volume since the end of 2023.

“This quite aggressive and persistent buying has been draining off the supply at these levels at quite a rapid rate, setting the stage for an upside breakout soon,” Maund wrote.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Fobi AI Inc. (FOBI:TSX)

Retail: 80%
Insiders & Management: 20%
80%
20%
*Share Structure as of 2/26/2024

 

That tilt toward upside volume has also driven the Accumulation line higher, the analyst said.

“These factors together make a strong case for an upside breakout soon,” Maund wrote.

Ownership and Share Structure

According to the company, about 20% is held by insiders, including the CEO Anson, who has 4.35% personally and 15.45% through Fobisuite Technologies Inc. The rest is with retail.

Fobi AI’s market cap is CA$15.9 million, with 176.65 million shares outstanding, and 141.87 million free floating. It trades in a 52-week range of CA$0.58 and CA$0.07.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Fobi AI Inc. has a consulting relationship with an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, and pays a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Fobi AI Inc.
  3. Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  4.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Contributor Disclosures:

  1. Author Certification and Compensation: [Clive Maund of clivemaund.com] is being compensated as an independent contractor by Street Smart, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, for writing this article. Maund received his UK Technical Analysts’ Diploma in 1989. The recommendations and opinions expressed in this content accurately reflect the personal, independent, and objective views of the author regarding any and all of the designated securities discussed. No part of the compensation received by the author was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed.
  2. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.

Clivemaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

Financial News Stock Market News
24 Feb

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by VIX & Russell-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (11,895 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (246 contracts) also showing a small positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-6,515 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-3,641 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (-2,752 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-3,346 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-332 contracts).

Stock Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (88 percent) and the VIX (80 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini (79 percent) and Russell-Mini (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (32 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently followed by the MSCI EAFE-Mini at 34 percent.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (79.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (70.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (32.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (32.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (87.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (93.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (78.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (88.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (67.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (67.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (40.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (42.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (34.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (37.6 percent)

VIX & MSCI EAFE-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends and is the only positive mover for the stock markets this week.

The Russell-Mini (-32 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nasdaq-Mini (-17 percent) coming in as the next lowest market for trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (4.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (-4.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-15.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-0.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-12.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (1.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-17.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-10.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-32.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-16.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (-7.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (0.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-2.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (9.2 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -39,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,895 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.944.87.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.332.08.8
– Net Position:-39,07143,488-4,417
– Gross Longs:74,671152,74725,470
– Gross Shorts:113,742109,25929,887
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.919.173.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.1-6.013.6

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -218,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -215,778 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.774.111.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.168.08.0
– Net Position:-218,530143,35375,177
– Gross Longs:271,8701,722,121262,112
– Gross Shorts:490,4001,578,768186,935
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.259.767.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.117.6-10.4

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 16,728 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.552.314.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.270.812.3
– Net Position:16,728-18,8982,170
– Gross Longs:32,29353,58414,754
– Gross Shorts:15,56572,48212,584
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.510.854.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.09.54.0

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,561 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.251.814.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.363.012.4
– Net Position:25,561-32,4326,871
– Gross Longs:92,445148,59642,460
– Gross Shorts:66,884181,02835,589
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.816.995.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.411.12.8

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -24,205 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 246 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.781.06.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.577.15.2
– Net Position:-24,20519,7274,478
– Gross Longs:59,033407,62330,904
– Gross Shorts:83,238387,89626,426
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.933.144.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-32.133.1-21.9

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -332 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.864.924.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.552.514.9
– Net Position:-3,7202,1241,596
– Gross Longs:1,85211,1214,156
– Gross Shorts:5,5728,9972,560
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.2 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.248.863.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.52.410.8

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -31,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,856 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.687.93.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.782.11.9
– Net Position:-31,20225,5655,637
– Gross Longs:37,822386,07214,132
– Gross Shorts:69,024360,5078,495
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.163.345.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.12.7-2.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
22 Feb

Target Thursdays: NAS100 and CN50 reach targets, Nvidia to hit new record high!

By ForexTime 

Check out these potential profits that you may have missed from our Daily Market Analysis.

  • NAS100 bears snagged 638 index points
  • Nvidia investors to reap 14% reward
  • CN50 surges by 430 index points

1) NAS100 bears took advantage before Nvidia-fuelled rebound

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

As written in our Week Ahead article on Friday, February 16th:

“Should 18000 prove to be a tough nut to crack, this could encourage a decline back towards the 17500 higher low …”

  • What happened since TP was published?

That 18,000 psychological level was indeed a “tough nut to crack” this past Friday.

The tech-heavy NAS100 then fell from 17965.7, briefly broke below 17,500 to hit as low as 17,327.2, before rebounding.

  • How much in potential profits?

638 index points for traders who shorted (bet prices will move lower) this tech-heavy index from peak to trough since Friday.

The downward move ended as the NAS100 rebounded after Nvidia posted better-than-expected financial results.

 

 

2) Nvidia set to reward investors with 14% post-earnings boost

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

As written in our article titled “Nvidia earnings preview: Moment of truth…” on Wednesday, February 21st.

“Given how Nvidia shares ended Wednesday’s session around $675, this is equivalent to a rally towards fresh all-time highs …”

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

Nvidia, the US chipmaker whose GPUs are essential to the AI industry, reported better-than-expected earnings after US markets closed on Wednesday.

This sent the stock soaring by more than 14% in Thursday’s early trading session (before US markets officially open).

 

  • How much in potential profits?

Investors stand to gain 14% overnight 

That’s if they had bought this stock yesterday (Wednesday) and hold on today, assuming the gains from the pre-market session carries over into today’s (Thursday) US market open.

Nvidia is then set to register a new all-time high today (Thursday)!

 

 

3) CN50 reaches 12,000 psychological level

  • When/where was Target Price (TP) published?

“CN50: Needs more spark post-rate cut” on Tuesday, February 20th.

The article cited the “psychologically-important round number level” of 12,000 as a potential resistance.

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

The CN50 index surged on Wednesday (day after this article was published) likely due to some market intervention in China.

After briefly breaking above that 12k mark, the psychologically-important level duly acted as a resistance level, as mentioned in the article.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

Traders who opened long positions (bet that prices will go up) on the CN50 index on Tuesday, would have watched this index climb by as much as 430 index points the next day.

At the time of writing on Thursday (Feb 22nd), the CN50 index is still holding on to most of Wednesday’s gains, and is just hovering below that 12k TP.

 

 

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News
21 Feb

This AI Co.’s Upside Potential Is Substantial, Analyst Says

Technical Analyst Clive Maund reviews Treatment.com AI Inc.’s charts to explain why he believes it is currently a Strong Buy.

Source: Clive Maund  (2/16/24)

Treatment.com AI Inc. (TRUE:CSE; TREIF:OTCMKTS) is a company that should have a very bright future as it has been pioneering the development of an AI healthcare platform using AI and advanced machine learning technologies that has the potential to revolutionize healthcare due to the streamlining of healthcare provision and the massive cost savings across the industry that should result.

The growth potential of this industry is enormous, as is made clear when you consider that the AI healthcare market, which was valued at US$11 billion in 2021, is projected to grow to US$187 billion in 2030, and with Treatment.com AI having already developed its own platform it is centrally placed to be a part of this.

The fields in which AI is set to make a big contribution are Virtual Assistance and Chatbots, Diagnosis and Treatment Planning, Streamlining Administrative Tasks, and Predictive Analytics.

Treatment.com AI’s platform is powered by its proprietary Global Library of Medicine, which incorporates AI machine learning and has been trained by hundreds of physician experts across the globe.

The company is already in partnership with the Mayo Clinic and the University of Minnesota Medical School and is in discussion with another 52 organizations.

More details on all these developments are available in the company presentation.

We will now examine a range of charts to determine exactly what is happening with Treatment.com AI stock. These charts reveal clear technical patterns that enable us to see with almost pinpoint accuracy where the stock is in its lifecycle and, therefore, what we can expect to see unfold going forward.

The upside potential from the current historically low level is very substantial, especially in percentage terms.

We will start with the 2-year arithmetic chart, which makes brutally clear the severity of the bear market that followed from the peak at almost CA$63 towards the middle of 2021.

This savage bear market resulted in the stock losing well over 99% of its value from that peak. The value of this chart is not just that it clearly shows this bear market in its entirety, but it also shows how the rate of decline decelerated during the second half of 2022 before it settled into a long and very low base pattern that has continued from late 2022 all through 2023 and into this year.

Beyond observing these points, this chart is of little use technically because it squashes the base pattern so flat that we can’t see what is going on within it, but we can solve that problem by means of a log chart for the same timeframe, which we will now proceed to look at, but before leaving this chart to observe how upside volume has expanded quite dramatically since mid-October which has resulted in the Accumulation line shown at the bottom of it trending steeply higher — this is a clear indication of persistent accumulation of the stock presumably by those investors who believe that the company is set to do well and that its stock will, in consequence, enter a bullmarket. These are, therefore, very bullish indications.

Now, we will look at the 2-year log chart, which looks dramatically different from the arithmetic chart above for the same timeframe, which is due to the fact that the base pattern still in progress has formed at a very low level. This most useful chart makes it possible for us to see exactly what has been going on.

A Head-and-Shoulders pattern has built out whose Left Shoulder formed as far back as late 2022, so 14 months ago. The Right Shoulder of the pattern has been forming for several months now and is not yet complete, but with the price and its moving averages having converged in a most potent manner, we are believed to be fast approaching an upside breakout from this base pattern, especially as the Accumulation line is so strong.

We will now move on to review recent action in much more detail on a 10-month chart where we see that, embedded within the latter part of the Head-and-Shoulders bottom, is a fine, albeit lopsided, Cup & Handle base whose most distinguishing characteristic is high volume on the rally to complete the right side of the Cup part of it, which is exactly what we saw back in October.

These kinds of hybrid patterns, where the price chart has the characteristics of different base patterns simultaneously, are not uncommon, and happily, both the patterns we see on the Treatment.com AI chart are decidedly bullish. The Handle part of this Cup & Handle base, which started to form in mid-October, has been a remarkably narrow trading range, and the good news is that we can be reasonably confident of an upside breakout before much longer, thanks to the Accumulation line trending higher throughout, due to a preponderance of upside volume.

The conclusion is, with a breakout from the base pattern looking increasingly likely soon, the stock is rated a Strong Buy for all timeframes, and the upside potential from the current historically low level is very substantial, especially in percentage terms. The number of shares in issue is a reasonable 38.5 million.

Treatment.com AI closed at CA$0.52 on February 15, 2024.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Treatment.com AI Inc..
  2. Author Certification and Compensation: [Clive Maund of clivemaund.com] is being compensated as an independent contractor by Street Smart, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, for writing this article. Maund received his UK Technical Analysts’ Diploma in 1989.  The recommendations and opinions expressed in this content accurately reflect the personal, independent, and objective views of the author regarding any and all of the designated securities discussed. No part of the compensation received by the author was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed.
  3. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  4.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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Clivemaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

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