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Archive for Stock Market News

26 Mar

CN50 index sensitive to flood of earnings this week

By ForexTime 

  • 34% of CN50 members reporting earnings this week.
  • Earnings by BYD and China Merchants Bank helped support CN50 above 21-day SMA.
  • 24% of CN50 members left to report earnings by the weekend.
  • Banking stocks carry the most weightage (23.8%) on the CN50 index.
  • CN50 bulls eager for more signs of economic resilience and support.

 

FXTM’s CN50 index is bracing for even more earnings announcements this week.

NOTE: FXTM’s CN50 index tracks the underlying FTSE China A50 index, which measures the overall performance of the 50 biggest A Share Chinese companies.

For the entire week, about a third (34%) of the 50 members on this stock index are set to unveil their respective financial results.

Earlier this week, BYD and China Merchants Bank – two of the 5-biggest CN50 members – have already made their respective announcements, which helped keep CN50 supported above its 21-day simple moving average (SMA).

However, initial gains were thwarted around the 13,470 region – a notable resistance back in February 2025 as well, before returning to test support around the 21-day SMA once more.

Also, the 13,470 region served as the mid-range for the CN50’s sideways pattern in most of Q4 2024.

CN50 to react to earnings

 

But there’s more!

Some 24% of the CN50’s members are due to release their earnings in the days ahead.

  • This includes many major banks, such as Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, Industrial Bank, and the Agricultural Bank of China.
  • Banking stocks have the most members (12) represented on the CN50 index of any other industry group, collectively account for nearly 24% of this index.

In short, these earnings could hold great influence over the CN50’s near-term performance.

 

And the CN50 could use all the help it can get.

The CN50 has lagged behind FXTM’s other Chinese stock indexes, namely the CHINAH and HK50, in terms of their respective performances so far in 2025:

  • CN50: down 0.8% year-to-date
  • HK50: up 17.1% year-to-date
  • CHINAH: up 18.8% year-to-date

Even though it’s pretty much flat on a year-to-date basis, the CN50 is still holding up well relative to its US counterparts:

  • US500: down 1.8% year-to-date
  • NAS100: down 3.4% year-to-date
  • US400: down 3.6% year-to-date
  • RUS2000: down 6% year-to-date

 

Earnings boost enough for CN50 bulls?

Granted, while an earnings boost will be roundly welcomed by CN50 bulls (those hoping prices will go higher), it’s unlikely to rapidly narrow the year-to-date gap with the likes of CHINAH and HK50.

After all, the latter two indices have soared on the AI-mania that’s now swaying Chinese markets.

Ultimately, given how economically-sensitive CN50’s constituents are, this index may need further evidence of incoming support to shore up China’s recovery.

Hence, beyond the corporate earnings announcements, traders and investors are also set to draw clues about the overall health of China’s economy via these upcoming major data releases:

  • Thursday, March 27th: February industrial profits
  • Monday, March 31st: March purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs)

Should concerns surrounding global economic growth become less pronounced, that could carve out more upside for the CN50 index, and vice versa.

 

Potential Scenarios:

  • BULLISH: Better-than-expected earnings, along with easing concerns over the global economic outlook, should raise the odds of CN50 reclaiming the 13,800 handle.

     

  • BEARISH: Disappointing CN50 member earnings this week, along with rising concerns about the global economic outlook, could drag this stock index below its 21-day SMA to potentially test its 50-day SMA as an immediate downside target. 

    The psychologically-important 13k level then lies further south to potentially shore up support.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News
17 Mar

The push to restore semiconductor manufacturing faces a labor crisis − can the US train enough workers in time?

By Michael Moats, Missouri University of Science and Technology 

Semiconductors power nearly every aspect of modern life – cars, smartphones, medical devices and even national defense systems. These tiny but essential components make the information age possible, whether they’re supporting lifesaving hospital equipment or facilitating the latest advances in artificial intelligence.

It’s easy to take them for granted, until something goes wrong. That’s exactly what happened when the COVID-19 pandemic exposed major weaknesses in the global semiconductor supply chain. Suddenly, to name just one consequence, new vehicles couldn’t be finished because chips produced abroad weren’t being delivered. The semiconductor supply crunch disrupted entire industries and cost hundreds of billions of dollars.

The crisis underscored a hard reality: The U.S. depends heavily on foreign countries – including China, a geopolitical rival – to manufacture semiconductors. This isn’t just an economic concern; it’s widely recognized as a national security risk.

That’s why the U.S. government has taken steps to invest in semiconductor production through initiatives such as the CHIPS and Science Act, which aims to revitalize American manufacturing and was passed with bipartisan support in 2022. While President Donald Trump has criticized the CHIPS and Science Act recently, both he and his predecessor, Joe Biden, have touted their efforts to expand domestic chip manufacturing in recent years.

Yet, even with bipartisan support for new chip plants, a major challenge remains: Who will operate them?

Minding the workforce gap

The push to bring semiconductor manufacturing back to the U.S. faces a significant hurdle: a shortage of skilled workers. The semiconductor industry is expected to need 300,000 engineers by 2030 as new plants are built. Without a well-trained workforce, these efforts will fall short, and the U.S. will remain dependent on foreign suppliers.

This isn’t just a problem for the tech sector – it affects every industry that relies on semiconductors, from auto manufacturing to defense contractors. Virtually every military communication, monitoring and advanced weapon system relies on microchips. It’s not sustainable or safe for the U.S. to rely on foreign nations – especially adversaries – for the technology that powers its military.

For the U.S. to secure supply chains and maintain technological leadership, I believe it would be wise to invest in education and workforce development alongside manufacturing expansion.

Building the next generation of semiconductor engineers

Filling this labor gap will require a nationwide effort to train engineers and technicians in semiconductor research, design and fabrication. Engineering programs across the country are taking up this challenge by introducing specialized curricula that combine hands-on training with industry-focused coursework.

Future semiconductor workers will need expertise in chip design and microelectronics, materials science and process engineering, and advanced manufacturing and clean room operations. To meet this demand, it will be important for universities and colleges to work alongside industry leaders to ensure students graduate with the skills employers need. Offering hands-on experience in semiconductor fabrication, clean-room-based labs and advanced process design will be essential for preparing a workforce that’s ready to contribute from Day 1.

At Missouri University of Science of Technology, where I am the chair of the materials science and engineering department, we’re launching a multidisciplinary bachelor’s degree in semiconductor engineering this fall. Other universities across the U.S. are also expanding their semiconductor engineering options amid strong demand from both industry and students.

A historic opportunity for economic growth

Rebuilding domestic semiconductor manufacturing isn’t just about national security – it’s an economic opportunity that could benefit millions of Americans. By expanding training programs and workforce pipelines, the U.S. can create tens of thousands of high-paying jobs, strengthening the economy and reducing reliance on foreign supply chains.

And the race to secure semiconductor supply chains isn’t just about stability – it’s about innovation. The U.S. has long been a global leader in semiconductor research and development, but recent supply chain disruptions have shown the risks of allowing manufacturing to move overseas.

If the U.S. wants to remain at the forefront of technological advancement in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and next-generation communication systems, it seems clear to me it will need new workers – not just new factories – to gain control of its semiconductor production.The Conversation

About the Author:

Michael Moats, Professor of Metallurgical Engineering, Missouri University of Science and Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Opinions Stock Market News
09 Mar

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall slightly higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (64,882 contracts) with the VIX (28,878 contracts), the Russell-Mini (16,757 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (2,021 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-4,011 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-1,914 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-780 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the S&P500-Mini (84 percent) and the Russell-Mini (79 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (75 percent) and MSCI EAFE-Mini (75 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

The VIX (60 percent) the comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is above the 3-year midpoint of 50 percent.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (59.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (33.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (83.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (72.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (62.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (58.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (72.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (79.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (78.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (67.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (74.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (81.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (75.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (77.9 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (28 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (19 percent), the Nikkei 225 (18 percent) and the Russell-Mini (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-11 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-2.0 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-11.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (-38.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (19.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-0.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-3.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (5.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (23.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (11.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-13.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (17.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (25.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (27.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (24.6 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -40,225 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly jump by 28,878 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,103 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.347.38.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.637.08.0
– Net Position:-40,22540,231-6
– Gross Longs:87,215184,87631,279
– Gross Shorts:127,440144,64531,285
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.942.278.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.012.6-10.9

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,103 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 64,882 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,779 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.868.013.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.375.77.0
– Net Position:32,103-167,315135,212
– Gross Longs:366,5101,483,119287,647
– Gross Shorts:334,4071,650,434152,435
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.79.990.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.4-16.0-0.4

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -911 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.359.318.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.862.616.5
– Net Position:1,110-2,5191,409
– Gross Longs:15,22744,55113,813
– Gross Shorts:14,11747,07012,404
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.134.662.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.04.4-10.9

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 21,766 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.753.915.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.267.99.2
– Net Position:21,766-40,22218,456
– Gross Longs:82,749155,44744,972
– Gross Shorts:60,983195,66926,516
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.910.389.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.1-3.80.6

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,331 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.073.37.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.074.15.2
– Net Position:-4,574-3,5808,154
– Gross Longs:66,840326,54131,232
– Gross Shorts:71,414330,12123,078
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.921.747.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.2-3.8-29.2

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -661 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 119 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:1.975.521.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.970.620.6
– Net Position:-661553108
– Gross Longs:2158,4002,402
– Gross Shorts:8767,8472,294
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.530.345.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.9-15.01.1

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,821 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,914 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.385.62.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.084.31.4
– Net Position:-11,8215,5926,229
– Gross Longs:49,088371,89512,435
– Gross Shorts:60,909366,3036,206
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.133.048.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.8-26.814.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
01 Mar

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini (15,949 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (8,475 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (7,187 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (1,950 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (1,156 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-11,438 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,051 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nikkei 225 & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nikkei 225 (81 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (79 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (73 percent) and S&P500-Mini (71 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the VIX (34 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (33.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (44.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (71.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (70.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (65.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (63.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (79.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (54.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (67.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (61.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (81.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (72.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (75.5 percent)

Nikkei 225 & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (25 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (24 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (23 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-38 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-14 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-38.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (-24.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-0.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (4.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-6.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (23.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-13.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-13.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-18.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (25.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (13.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (23.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (25.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -69,103 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.149.27.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.931.77.2
– Net Position:-69,10368,0931,010
– Gross Longs:86,226191,77328,991
– Gross Shorts:155,329123,68027,981
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.765.982.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-38.434.010.2

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,779 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.170.013.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.775.17.0
– Net Position:-32,779-107,803140,582
– Gross Longs:300,9491,489,757288,516
– Gross Shorts:333,7281,597,560147,934
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 10.9 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.418.893.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.4-3.39.7

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.461.018.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.970.013.0
– Net Position:2,877-7,2704,393
– Gross Longs:14,17949,67614,949
– Gross Shorts:11,30256,94610,556
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.027.780.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.95.9-13.7

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 25,777 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 15,949 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.353.015.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.367.810.1
– Net Position:25,777-42,31616,539
– Gross Longs:83,882151,63245,463
– Gross Shorts:58,105193,94828,924
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.18.186.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.6-19.65.8

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -21,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.275.17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.373.04.8
– Net Position:-21,3318,62512,706
– Gross Longs:51,610317,14033,096
– Gross Shorts:72,941308,51520,390
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.429.260.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.814.8-10.9

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 119 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,950 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.067.820.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.063.125.9
– Net Position:119569-688
– Gross Longs:1,4448,1652,430
– Gross Shorts:1,3257,5963,118
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.230.430.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:25.0-14.4-16.8

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -9,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,051 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,856 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.785.42.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.984.31.6
– Net Position:-9,9074,9464,961
– Gross Longs:51,405376,32111,891
– Gross Shorts:61,312371,3756,930
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.832.241.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.0-22.89.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
26 Feb

Nvidia earnings preview: Make-or-break moment…

By ForexTime 

  • Nvidia world’s 2nd largest company with $3.1 trillion market cap
  • Earnings due after US markets close Wednesday, 26th Feb
  • DeepSeek threat, tariffs and supply outlook in focus
  • Shares forecast to move almost 10% ↑ or ↓ post earnings
  • Technical levels: $115, $138 & $150

Nvidia’s earnings will be a defining moment for itself and the entire tech space.

Making it one of the biggest events for Q1.

Given the lofty expectations, the AI giant must deliver exceptional results to keep bulls alive.

But this could be complicated by mounting competition and supply constraints.

Here is what you need to know:

 

The lowdown…

Nvidia shares took a beating in late January, plunging 17% after Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek rocked the tech space. Although shares later rebounded, prices are still down almost 6% year-to-date.

 

When will earnings be released?

Nvidia will report its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 earnings after US markets close on Wednesday.

 

What are markets expecting

  • Revenue: $38.2 billion – reflecting a staggering 73% YoY increase.
  • Data Center revenue: $34.1 billion
  • Gross profit margins: 73.5%
  • Net profits: $21.0 billion
  • Earnings per share (EPS): $0.84 – reflecting a massive 64% YoY increase.

Most importantly, all eyes will be on Nvidia’s guidance for future earnings which could boost or reduce confidence over its business outlook.

Note: Nvidia projected Q4 revenues of $37.5 billion, plus or minus 2% during its last report.

 

Why is Nvidia’s earnings so important?

Nvidia plays a critical role in AI development across the world.

The likes of Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet use Nvidia’s GPUs for their AI systems while Tesla uses them in its vehicles. OpenAI relies on Nvidia chips to train ChatGPT and Tencent/Alibaba use them in their chatbots.

So, the company’s earnings could serve as a major gauge for the AI trade while also re-confirming whether its $3.1 trillion valuation is justified.

 

Potential challenges

  • DeepSeek’s cheaper AI models hitting demand for Nvidia’s pricier chips.
  • Trump’s tariffs and trade uncertainty reducing chip sales, especially in China.
  • Supply challenges and production delays for Blackwell GPUs limiting growth.

 

How will Nvidia react to earnings?

Markets are forecasting a near 10% move, either up or down, for Nvidia stocks post earnings.

Note: With a $3.1 billion valuation, a nearly 10% move in the price of Nvidia is $310 billion. This is larger than the entire value of over 95% of companies in the S&P500.

 

Possible scenarios

  • If Nvidia delivers exceptional results and raises its guidance – prices could rally.
  • If Nvidia misses expectations and flags potential challenges down the road – prices may tumble.

 

What does this mean for FXTM’s NAS100 index.

FXTM’s NAS100 tracks the underlying benchmark Nasdaq 100 index.

And Nvidia makes up under 10% of the index weighting, meaning that the upcoming earnings could result in heightened volatility.

The index is down almost 2% this month, with year-to-date gains flat. Prices are under pressure on the daily charts with bears eyeing support at 20500.

Key levels of interest can be found at 22256, 21400 and 20500.

nasdaq1000

Technical forces

Nvidia shares are under pressure on the daily charts.

This continues to be reflected in price action with the candlesticks below the 21, 50 and 100-day SMA.

  • Weakness below the 200-day SMA could signal a decline toward the $115.00 support and $100.
  • A solid move above the 50 and 100-day SMA could signal a move back toward $138, $150, and fresh all-time high beyond $152.69.

Nvidia chart 1

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News
25 Feb

Top Companies on Stocks Watchlist include Industrials & Utilities

By InvestMacro Research

The first quarter of 2025 is cruising along and we wanted to highlight some recent companies that have been added to our Cosmic Rays Watchlist, according to earnings data from last quarter. This week’s companies include a few industrial companies as well as a utility and a consumer discretionary stock.

The Cosmic Rays Watchlist is the output from our proprietary fundamental analysis algorithm. The algo examines company fundamental metrics, earnings trends and overall sector strength trends. The aim is identify quality dividend-paying companies on the NYSE and Nasdaq stock exchanges. If a company scores over 50, it gets added to our Watchlist for further analysis.

We use this system as a stock market ideas generator and to update our Watchlist every quarter. However, be aware the fundamental system does not take the stock price as a direct element in our rating so one must compare each idea with their current stock prices (this is not a timing tool).

Many studies are consistently showing overvalued markets and that has to be taken into consideration with any stock market idea. As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results. A stock added to our list is not a recommendation to buy or sell the security.

Here we go with 5 Stocks scored in 2025:

Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL):

Travel + Leisure Co. (Symbol: TNL) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. TNL scored a 55 in our fundamental rating system on February 20th.

At time of writing, only 7.93% of stocks have scored a 50 or better out of a total of 11,665 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 6 times over the years and rose by 9 system points from our last update. TNL is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Consumer Cyclical sector. The industry focus for TNL is Travel Services.

TNL has beat earnings-per-share expectations for four consecutive quarters and has a dividend of close to 3.50 percent with a payout ratio near 35 percent. The TNL stock price has outperformed the Consumer Discretionary Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks with a 36.91 percent rise compared to the 24.92 benchmark return.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Travel + Leisure Co., together with its subsidiaries, provides hospitality services and products in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Vacation Ownership; and Travel and Membership. The Vacation Ownership segment develops, markets, and sells vacation ownership interests (VOIs) to individual consumers; provides consumer financing in connection with the sale of VOIs; and property management services at resorts. The Travel and Membership segment operates various travel businesses, including three vacation exchange brands, travel technology platforms, travel memberships, and direct-to-consumer rentals.

Company Website: https://www.travelandleisureco.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL)7.2236.911.66
– Benchmark Symbol: XLY28.1324.92

 

* Data through February 21, 2025

Duke Energy Corporation (DUK):

Duke Energy Corporation (Symbol: DUK) made our Watchlist with a 65 score on February 14th.

At time of writing, only 4.60% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 11,665 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 3 times and rose by 33 system points from our last update. DUK is a Large Cap stock and part of the Utilities sector. The industry focus for DUK is Regulated Electric.

DUK met the earnings-per-share expectations in the latest quarter after beating eps two out of the past three quarters (with one miss). DUKE Energy has a dividend of close to 3.75 percent with a payout ratio near 70 percent. The DUK stock price has slightly under-performed the Utilities Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks with a 24.2 percent return compared to the 30.56 benchmark return.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Duke Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, and Commercial Renewables.

Company Website: https://www.duke-energy.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)20.2824.20.46
– Benchmark Symbol: XLU21.0230.56

 

* Data through February 21, 2025

Global Payments Inc. (GPN):

Global Payments Inc. (Symbol: GPN) was added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList with a 60 score on February 14th.

At time of writing, only 4.60% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 11,665 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time. GPN is a Large Cap stock and part of the Industrials sector (some sites have this stock in the Financial Services sector). The industry focus for GPN is Specialty Business Services.

GPN has beaten earnings-per-share expectations in two out of the past four quarters (although missed the past two) and has a dividend of close to 0.95 percent with a payout ratio near 16 percent. The GPN stock price has majorly under-performed the Industrials Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks with a -20.43 percent decline compared to the 15.59 benchmark return.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Global Payments Inc. provides payment technology and software solutions for card, electronic, check, and digital-based payments in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific. It operates through three segments: Merchant Solutions, Issuer Solutions, and Business and Consumer Solutions.

Company Website: https://www.globalpaymentsinc.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Global Payments Inc. (GPN)12.40-20.430.98
– Benchmark Symbol: XLI25.8215.59

 

* Data through February 21, 2025

Snap-on Incorporated (SNA):

Snap-on Incorporated (Symbol: SNA) was added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList on February 8th with a 55 score in our fundamental rating system.

At time of writing, only 7.93% of stocks have scored a 50 or better out of a total of 11,665 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 2 times and rose by 25 system points from our last update. SNA is a Large Cap stock and part of the Industrials sector. The industry focus for SNA is Manufacturing – Tools & Accessories.

SNA has beaten its earnings-per-share expectations for four consecutive quarters including in the latest quarter. Snap On has a dividend right around 2.50 percent with a payout ratio near 45 percent. The SNA stock price has outperformed the Industrials Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks with a 25.76 percent gain compared to the 15.59 benchmark return.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Snap-on Incorporated manufactures and markets tools, equipment, diagnostics, and repair information and systems solutions for professional users worldwide. It operates through Commercial & Industrial Group, Snap-on Tools Group, Repair Systems & Information Group, and Financial Services segments.

Company Website: https://www.snapon.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Snap-on Incorporated (SNA)15.1125.760.95
– Benchmark Symbol: XLI25.8215.59

 

* Data through February 21, 2025

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN):

Finally, Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (Symbol: ALSN) was added to the Cosmic Rays WatchList on February 12th with a 59 score in our fundamental rating system.

At time of writing, only 7.93% of stocks have scored a 50 or better out of a total of 11,665 scores in our earnings database. This stock has been a staple on our list and has made our Watchlist a total of 7 times, rising by 12 system points from our last update. ALSN is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Industrials sector. The industry focus for ALSN is Machinery.

Allison Transmission has beaten its earnings-per-share expectations for four straight quarters as well including in the latest quarter. ALSN has a dividend just above 1.00 percent with a payout ratio near 15 percent. The ALSN stock price has strongly outperformed the Industrials Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks with a 45.44 percent increase compared to the 15.59 benchmark return.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells commercial and defense fully-automatic transmissions for medium-and heavy-duty commercial vehicles, and medium-and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles worldwide.

Company Website: https://www.allisontransmission.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN)10.4545.440.98
– Benchmark Symbol: XLI25.8215.59

 

* Data through February 21, 2025

By InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies we add to our stock watch list.

All information, stock ideas and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Stock scores are a data driven process through company fundamentals and are not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Company descriptions provided by sec.gov.

Opinions QuantStock Stock Market News
22 Feb

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Russell-Mini & VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell-Mini & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (2,658 contracts) with the VIX (1,330 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (1,156 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (381 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-22,857 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-6,064 contracts) and with the Nasdaq-Mini (-3,608 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (73 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (66 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (65 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the VIX (44 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (44.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (42.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (66.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (70.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (65.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (63.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (54.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (60.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (61.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (59.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (64.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (61.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (73.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (80.8 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (25 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (14 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-18 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-24.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (-25.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (3.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (6.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-6.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-13.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-16.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-18.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-20.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (13.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (24.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (33.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -57,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,995 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.649.47.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.035.56.7
– Net Position:-57,66555,6172,048
– Gross Longs:86,047197,33428,989
– Gross Shorts:143,712141,71726,941
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.155.386.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.117.923.0

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -39,966 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -22,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,109 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.869.613.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.673.97.0
– Net Position:-39,966-91,985131,951
– Gross Longs:313,1051,475,997281,293
– Gross Shorts:353,0711,567,982149,342
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.221.189.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.7-5.25.0

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.461.018.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.970.013.0
– Net Position:2,877-7,2704,393
– Gross Longs:14,17949,67614,949
– Gross Shorts:11,30256,94610,556
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.027.780.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.95.9-13.7

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 9,828 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,436 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.354.613.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.960.411.0
– Net Position:9,828-16,7596,931
– Gross Longs:87,917158,26338,847
– Gross Shorts:78,089175,02231,916
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.435.567.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.918.2-15.3

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -29,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.277.38.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.473.64.6
– Net Position:-29,80615,39714,409
– Gross Longs:42,482322,19033,687
– Gross Shorts:72,288306,79319,278
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.633.465.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.219.4-14.3

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,831 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 381 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,212 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.171.820.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.256.119.7
– Net Position:-1,8311,78843
– Gross Longs:9238,1682,280
– Gross Shorts:2,7546,3802,237
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.638.944.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.8-8.7-7.1

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,856 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,064 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,792 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.384.92.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.184.11.5
– Net Position:-7,8563,4564,400
– Gross Longs:54,691376,90111,099
– Gross Shorts:62,547373,4456,699
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.030.439.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.5-26.415.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
16 Feb

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by MSCI EAFE & DowJones

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the MSCI EAFE-Mini (12,814 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (1,156 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-12,292 contracts), the VIX (-10,465 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-5,542 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-4,966 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-12 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (81 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (65 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (62 percent) and Nikkei 225 (61 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the VIX (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (42.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (52.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (62.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (64.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (65.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (63.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (60.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (68.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (59.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (63.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (61.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (61.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (80.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (64.2 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (34 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (17 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-21 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-25.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (-28.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (5.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (8.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-6.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-16.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-12.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-20.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-17.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (16.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (3.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (33.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (20.2 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -58,995 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,530 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.050.68.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.435.67.0
– Net Position:-58,99553,8785,117
– Gross Longs:68,455182,19030,334
– Gross Shorts:127,450128,31225,217
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.4 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.953.899.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.517.133.1

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -17,109 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,817 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.968.513.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.773.97.0
– Net Position:-17,109-113,610130,719
– Gross Longs:333,6611,436,654277,921
– Gross Shorts:350,7701,550,264147,202
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.218.789.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.9-4.7-3.3

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.461.018.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.970.013.0
– Net Position:2,877-7,2704,393
– Gross Longs:14,17949,67614,949
– Gross Shorts:11,30256,94610,556
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.027.780.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.95.9-13.7

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,436 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,542 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,978 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.956.014.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.864.611.0
– Net Position:13,436-22,8609,424
– Gross Longs:73,511147,44838,295
– Gross Shorts:60,075170,30828,871
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.029.072.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.222.4-19.9

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,966 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,498 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.978.17.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.773.35.0
– Net Position:-32,46420,25312,211
– Gross Longs:41,084324,23832,835
– Gross Shorts:73,548303,98520,624
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.836.458.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.724.0-25.1

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,200 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.170.921.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.553.818.7
– Net Position:-2,2121,948264
– Gross Longs:9238,0802,400
– Gross Shorts:3,1356,1322,136
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.340.148.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.7-7.5-16.9

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,814 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.784.62.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.185.11.6
– Net Position:-1,792-2,2624,054
– Gross Longs:55,641369,92610,865
– Gross Shorts:57,433372,1886,811
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.823.537.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.9-34.914.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
09 Feb

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were hgher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (51,337 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (13,909 contracts), the VIX (915 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (863 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-11,713 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-5,463 contracts) and with the DowJones-Mini (-13 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (69 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (64 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (64 percent) and DowJones-Mini (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the VIX (52 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (52.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (51.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (64.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (56.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (63.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (63.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (68.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (86.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (63.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (66.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (61.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (54.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (64.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (46.2 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (20 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (9 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-18 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-28.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-0.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (8.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-2.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-6.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-9.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-12.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-8.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-17.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-14.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (3.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-5.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (20.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (4.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 915 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.648.18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.533.88.1
– Net Position:-48,53046,3672,163
– Gross Longs:63,875156,54328,653
– Gross Shorts:112,405110,17626,490
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.447.486.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.321.524.7

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 51,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,154 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.868.713.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.074.76.9
– Net Position:-4,817-123,461128,278
– Gross Longs:306,7411,423,400271,788
– Gross Shorts:311,5581,546,861143,510
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.017.288.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.8-8.90.4

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,721 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.063.518.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.970.912.9
– Net Position:1,721-6,0834,362
– Gross Longs:13,20552,40914,969
– Gross Shorts:11,48458,49210,607
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.129.479.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.97.2-4.0

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 18,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.354.115.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.966.010.7
– Net Position:18,978-30,81111,833
– Gross Longs:75,804140,04839,452
– Gross Shorts:56,826170,85927,619
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.620.477.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.811.4-4.6

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -27,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,035 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.577.68.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.074.75.2
– Net Position:-27,49812,18615,312
– Gross Longs:44,118326,37137,173
– Gross Shorts:71,616314,18521,861
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.231.467.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.720.8-22.7

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,063 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.972.319.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.853.220.0
– Net Position:-2,2002,229-29
– Gross Longs:9238,4382,311
– Gross Shorts:3,1236,2092,340
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.442.042.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.42.7-15.1

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -14,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,909 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,515 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.486.92.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.884.11.9
– Net Position:-14,60611,7102,896
– Gross Longs:44,985376,34511,105
– Gross Shorts:59,591364,6358,209
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.240.331.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.2-18.2-2.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
04 Feb

5 Large Cap Stocks are latest to be added to Watchlist in Q1 2025

By InvestMacro Research

The first quarter of 2025 is underway and we wanted to highlight some of the top companies that have been added to our Cosmic Rays Watchlist in the past week. The Cosmic Rays Watchlist is the output from our proprietary fundamental analysis algorithm.

The algo examines company fundamental metrics, earnings trends and overall sector strength trends. The aim is identify quality dividend-paying companies on the NYSE and Nasdaq stock exchanges. If a company scores over 50, it gets added to our Watchlist for further analysis.

We use this system as a stock market ideas generator and to update our Watchlist every quarter. However, be aware the fundamental system does not take the stock price as a direct element in our rating so one must compare each idea with their current stock prices (this is not a timing tool).

Many studies are consistently showing overvalued markets and that has to be taken into consideration with any stock market idea.

As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results. A stock added to our list is not a recommendation to buy or sell the security.

Here we go with 5 of our Top Stocks scored in Q1 2025:

The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG):

The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (Symbol: HIG) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. HIG scored a 66 in our fundamental rating system on February 3rd.

At time of writing, only 4.67% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 11,112 scores in our earnings database. HIG has been a staple on our list, making the Watchlist a total of 7 times and the company’s score rose by 1 point from our last update. HIG is a Large Cap stock and part of the Financial Services sector. The industry focus for HIG is Insurance – Diversified.

HIG has beat earnings-per-share expectations two out of the past three quarters and has a dividend of close to 1.85 percent with a payout ratio near 20 percent. The HIG stock price has slightly under-performed the Financial Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks with a 27.61 percent rise compared to the 31.35 benchmark return.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. provides insurance and financial services to individual and business customers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.

Company Website: https://www.thehartford.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG)10.927.610.94
– Benchmark Symbol: XLF18.131.351.0

 

* Data through February 03, 2025

Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC):

Northrop Grumman Corporation (Symbol: NOC) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. NOC scored a 58 in our fundamental rating system on February 3rd.

At time of writing, only 8.03% of stocks have scored a 50 or better out of a total of 11,112 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 2 times and jumped by 113 system points from our last update. NOC is a Large Cap stock and part of the Industrials sector. The industry focus for NOC is Aerospace & Defense.

NOC has beat the earnings-per-share expectations in the past four quarters. Northrop’s dividend is currently at 1.68 percent and has a payout ratio around 30 percent at time of writing. The stock price has under-performed the Industrials Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks with a 11.27 percent gain compared to the 21.27 benchmark return.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Northrop Grumman Corporation operates as an aerospace and defense company worldwide. The company’s Aeronautics Systems segment designs, develops, manufactures, integrates, and sustains aircraft systems.

Company Website: https://www.northropgrumman.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)17.211.270.35
– Benchmark Symbol: XLI26.121.271.1

 

* Data through February 03, 2025

Teradyne, Inc. (TER):

Teradyne, Inc. (Symbol: TER) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. TER scored a 50 in our fundamental rating system on January 31st.

At time of writing, only 8.03% of stocks have scored a 50 or better out of a total of 11,112 scores in our earnings database. This stock has never been on our Watchlist previously and rose by 76 system points from our last update. TER is a Large Cap stock and part of the Technology sector. The industry focus for TER is Semiconductors.

Teradyne has beat the earnings-per-share expectations in each of the past four quarters. TER’s dividend is currently a modest 0.43 percent and has a payout ratio of around just 14 percent at time of writing. The stock price has under-performed the Technology Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks with a 10.71 percent gain compared to the 14.25 benchmark return.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Teradyne, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells, and supports automatic test equipment worldwide. The company operates through Semiconductor Test, System Test, Industrial Automation, and Wireless Test segments.

Company Website: https://www.teradyne.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Teradyne, Inc. (TER)33.510.711.52
– Benchmark Symbol: XLK36.914.251.2

 

* Data through February 03, 2025

Synchrony Financial (SYF):

Synchrony Financial (Symbol: SYF) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. SYF scored a 68 in our fundamental rating system on January 30th.

At time of writing, only 4.67% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 11,112 scores in our earnings database. This stock has been on our Watchlist a total of 7 times and rose by 6 system points from our last update. SYF is a Large Cap stock and part of the Financial Services sector. The industry focus for SYF is Financial – Credit Services.

SYF missed their earnings-per-share expectations this quarter after beating expectations in the previous three quarters. Synchrony’s dividend is currently at approximately 1.50 percent and has a payout ratio of around just 12 percent at time of writing. The stock price has outperformed the Financial Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks with a whopping 74.13 percent gain compared to the 31.35 percent benchmark return. SYF is currently trading near the top of its range with a recent overbought level on the weekly relative strength index (RSI).

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Synchrony Financial, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a consumer financial services company in the United States. It provides credit products, such as credit cards, commercial credit products, and consumer installment loans.

Company Website: https://www.synchrony.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Synchrony Financial (SYF)7.974.131.59
– Benchmark Symbol: XLF18.131.351.0

 

* Data through February 03, 2025

Logitech International S.A. (LOGI):

Logitech International S.A. (Symbol: LOGI) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. LOGI scored a 65 in our fundamental rating system on January 30th.

At time of writing, only 4.67% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 11,112 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 3 times and rose by 48 system points from our last update. LOGI is a Large Cap stock and part of the Technology sector. The industry focus for LOGI is Computer Hardware.

Logitech has beaten the earnings-per-share expectations for each of the past four quarters and has a dividend of close to 1.40 percent with a payout ratio currently near 28 percent. The LOGI stock price has ever-so-slightly outperformed the Technology Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks with a 15.37 percent rise compared to the 14.25 percent benchmark return.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Logitech International S.A., through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets products that connect people to digital and cloud experiences worldwide. The company offers pointing devices, such as wireless mouse; corded and cordless keyboards, living room keyboards, and keyboard-and-mouse combinations; PC webcams; and keyboards for tablets and smartphones, as well as other accessories for mobile devices.

Company Website: https://www.logitech.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Logitech International S.A. (LOGI)22.715.370.56
– Benchmark Symbol: XLK36.914.251.2

 

* Data through February 03, 2025

By InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies we add to our stock watch list.

All information, stock ideas and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Stock scores are a data driven process through company fundamentals and are not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Company descriptions provided by sec.gov.

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