Archive for Stock Market News

What’s next for Albertsons after calling off its $25B grocery merger with Kroger: More lawsuits

By Christine P. Bartholomew, University at Buffalo 

Albertsons announced on Dec. 11, 2024, that it had called off an attempted merger with Kroger and would sue Kroger for breach of contract. The US$25 billion deal, first announced in 2022, would have combined Cincinnati-based Kroger, already the largest traditional U.S. supermarket chain, with Boise, Idaho-based Albertsons, which is currently the third-biggest grocer.

The Conversation U.S. asked Christine P. Bartholomew, a professor at the University at Buffalo School of Law who researches consumer protection, to explain how the merger failed and why it matters.

Which supermarkets belong to the two companies?

Kroger has 28 subsidiaries with nearly 2,800 supermarkets, including Harris Teeter, Dillon’s, Smith’s, King Soopers, Fry’s, City Market, Owen’s, JayC, Pay Less, Baker’s Gerbes, Pick‘n Save, Metro Market, Mariano’s Fresh Market, QFC, Ralphs and Fred Meyer.

Albertsons owns and operates more than 2,200 supermarkets through its many brands. They include Safeway, Vons, Jewel-Osco, Shaw’s, Acme, Tom Thumb, Randalls, United Supermarkets, Pavilions, Star Market, Haggen, Carrs, Kings Food Market and Balducci’s.

Kroger and Albertsons also operate supermarkets branded with their own names.

Had the merger gone forward, it would have been the largest of its kind in U.S. history, affecting millions of grocery shoppers.

To ward off regulators’ concerns, prior to canceling the transaction, the chains announced in 2023 a plan to sell hundreds of their supermarkets across the United States to C&S Wholesale Grocers. They updated this plan in 2024, pledging to not close any stores.

Why did Kroger want to acquire Albertsons?

The companies argued that they needed to join forces to compete against even bigger online and big box retailers. In recent years, Walmart and Costco have gained market share, while other chains have held steady or lost ground.

The companies also feared stiff competition from dollar stores, one of the fastest-growing segments of U.S. retail.

The federal government opposed the merger, with the U.S. Federal Trade Commission suing to block it. Had the deal gone through, the new company would have cemented its position, ensuring it has the largest market share for grocery purchases after Walmart.

What happened in court?

In February 2024, the FTC, along with state attorneys general representing consumers in eight states – Arizona, California, Illinois, Maryland, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon and Wyoming – filed a federal lawsuit in Oregon to block the merger. So did the District of Columbia’s attorney general.

This wasn’t the only legal challenge the merger faced. The Washington and Colorado attorneys general both filed suit in their own states to block the merger.

After hearings in both cases and months of uncertainty, the judges in both Oregon and Washington issued their rulings.

U.S. District Court Judge Adrienne Nelson, in Portland, Oregon, on Dec. 10, which blocked the merger pending the outcome of the administrative proceedings before the FTC.

A few hours later, Judge Marshall Ferguson in Seattle issued a permanent injunction barring the merger in Washington state only. Both judges determined that the merger risked significantly reducing competition and that the companies didn’t offer enough evidence that the merger would help consumers.

“We’re standing up to mega-monopolies to keep prices down,” Ferguson said. He called the injunction “an important victory for affordability, worker protections and the rule of law.”

Albertsons and Kroger’s plan to offload stores to C&S didn’t impress the judges. Not only did Nelson find the divestiture insufficient in scale, but she ruled it was “structured in a way that will significantly disadvantage C&S as a competitor.”

Albertsons v. Kroger

The morning after the Washington and Oregon decisions were issued, the deal was dead.

Albertsons announced it terminated the merger agreement, citing the court decisions.

Both companies still face significant legal challenges, though. Five minutes after announcing its intent to back out of the deal, Albertsons issued a second press release announcing it had filed a lawsuit against Kroger.

Albertsons said Kroger willfully breached the deal “by repeatedly refusing to divest assets necessary for antitrust approval, ignoring regulators’ feedback, rejecting stronger divestiture buyers and failing to cooperate with Albertsons.” The suit seeks significant damages, including “billions of dollars” for lost shareholder value and legal costs, as well as a $600 million merger breakup fee.

In response, Kroger said that “Albertsons’ claims are baseless and without merit.”

Albertsons’ suit against Kroger is pending in Delaware Court of Chancery, which hears many legal business disputes. The complaint remains temporarily under seal.

This article includes passages that appeared in an article about the proposed merger that was published on Feb. 28, 2024.The Conversation

About the Author:

Christine P. Bartholomew, Professor of Law, University at Buffalo

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (25,277 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (13,237 contracts), the Russell-Mini (9,417 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (5,882 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (571 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-11,968 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-139 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.


Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (94 percent) and the Russell-Mini (81 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (49 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (55.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (66.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (52.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (48.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (78.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (77.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (94.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (85.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (80.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (74.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (58.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (59.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (49.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (35.3 percent)


Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (47 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (18 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-40 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 (-22 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-39.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (-33.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-21.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-19.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (2.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-2.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (47.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (41.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-9.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-20.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (-21.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-6.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (18.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (3.8 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -45,170 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.445.98.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.233.08.7
– Net Position:-45,17045,739-569
– Gross Longs:68,746162,47230,353
– Gross Shorts:113,916116,73330,922
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.446.975.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-39.541.1-19.6

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -83,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 25,277 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.471.212.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.074.16.4
– Net Position:-83,333-66,801150,134
– Gross Longs:288,8761,654,888299,379
– Gross Shorts:372,2091,721,689149,245
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.330.798.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.815.314.2

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.351.319.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.069.413.4
– Net Position:11,071-16,3015,230
– Gross Longs:23,61445,99717,256
– Gross Shorts:12,54362,29812,026
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.314.691.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.4-4.912.6

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 35,573 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,882 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.452.114.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.269.29.7
– Net Position:35,573-49,86414,291
– Gross Longs:91,735152,03542,649
– Gross Shorts:56,162201,89928,358
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.30.081.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:47.2-36.16.1

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,157 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,417 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,574 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.274.98.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.679.63.4
– Net Position:-2,157-24,30026,457
– Gross Longs:74,100390,12744,304
– Gross Shorts:76,257414,42717,847
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.59.099.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.61.731.9

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,603 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -139 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:1.558.119.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.745.914.3
– Net Position:-2,6031,844759
– Gross Longs:2248,7862,919
– Gross Shorts:2,8276,9422,160
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.039.357.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.611.317.3

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -17,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,200 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.088.12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.085.31.4
– Net Position:-17,96312,5465,417
– Gross Longs:40,742397,68711,784
– Gross Shorts:58,705385,1416,367
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.449.144.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.1-20.111.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by Nasdaq-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini with a gain of 10,232 contracts on the week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-29,716 contracts), the VIX (-13,822 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-8,962 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-1,462 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-1,552 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (85 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (77 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Russell-Mini (74 percent) and the VIX (66 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (35 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score is the S&P500-Mini (49 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (66.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (78.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (48.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (53.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (77.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (79.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (85.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (69.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (74.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (80.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (35.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.8 percent)


Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (42 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The  MSCI EAFE-Mini (4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-21 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-33.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (-17.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-19.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-16.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-1.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (41.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (28.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-20.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-19.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (3.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (1.4 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -33,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,822 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,380 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.544.39.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.135.18.5
– Net Position:-33,20231,5261,676
– Gross Longs:66,912152,28630,871
– Gross Shorts:100,114120,76029,195
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.334.884.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-33.734.8-15.1

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -108,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,894 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.372.213.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.174.06.5
– Net Position:-108,610-40,012148,622
– Gross Longs:257,6061,646,683295,702
– Gross Shorts:366,2161,686,695147,080
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.534.498.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.610.821.6

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 10,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,052 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.452.117.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.066.813.8
– Net Position:10,500-13,6133,113
– Gross Longs:26,19648,06215,863
– Gross Shorts:15,69661,67512,750
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.418.578.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.81.16.2

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 29,691 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.454.813.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.368.79.7
– Net Position:29,691-40,96511,274
– Gross Longs:89,355160,83739,675
– Gross Shorts:59,664201,80228,401
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.27.676.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:41.9-30.51.5

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.975.58.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.278.53.4
– Net Position:-11,574-15,17626,750
– Gross Longs:65,152379,98143,620
– Gross Shorts:76,726395,15716,870
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.114.6100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.811.234.4

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:2.070.227.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.755.719.5
– Net Position:-2,4641,576888
– Gross Longs:2217,6203,008
– Gross Shorts:2,6856,0442,120
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.237.560.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.34.81.0

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -31,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,738 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.189.22.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.083.41.3
– Net Position:-31,20026,3454,855
– Gross Longs:37,113406,07010,977
– Gross Shorts:68,313379,7256,122
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.363.541.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.8-3.3-1.6

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

5 Medium Cap Companies that made our Quarterly Watchlist

By InvestMacro Research

The fourth quarter of 2024 is more than two-thirds through and most companies have released their third-quarter results. Today, we wanted to highlight some of the top Medium Cap companies that have been added to our Cosmic Rays Watchlist. The Cosmic Rays Watchlist is the output from our proprietary fundamental analysis algorithm.

The algo examines company fundamental metrics, earnings trends and overall sector strength trends. The aim is identify quality dividend-paying companies on the NYSE and Nasdaq stock exchanges. If a company scores over 50, it gets added to our Watchlist for further analysis.

We use this system as a stock market ideas generator and to update our Watchlist every quarter. However, be aware the fundamental system does not take the stock price as a direct element in our rating so one must compare each idea with their current stock prices (this is not a timing tool).

Disclaimer: The US stock markets continue to reach new all-time highs and this should always factor into the decision-making of buying any asset. Many major studies are consistently showing overvalued markets at the current time.

As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results. A stock added to our list is not a recommendation to buy or sell the security.

Here we go with 5 of our Top Medium Cap Stocks scored in Q3 2024:


Virtu Financial, Inc. (VIRT): Financial Services

Technically, Virtu is trading at its highest level since 2022 and has an overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly time-frame.

Technically, Virtu is trading at its highest level since 2022 and has an overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly time-frame.

Virtu Financial, Inc. (Symbol: VIRT) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. VIRT scored a 60 in our fundamental rating system on October 25th.

At time of writing, only 4.74% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 10,674 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time and rose by 36 system points from our last update. VIRT is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Financial Services sector. The industry focus for VIRT is Financial – Capital Markets.

Virtu has beat earnings expectations three quarters in a row, has a dividend of approximately 2.55 percent and a payout ratio of around 60 percent. The VIRT stock price has handily beat the Financial Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks — which also warrants a word of caution because the year-to-date price gain is steep at over 80 percent.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Virtu Financial, Inc., a financial services company, provides data, analytics, and connectivity products to clients worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Market Making and Execution Services. Its product suite includes offerings in execution, liquidity sourcing, analytics and broker-neutral, and multi-dealer platforms in workflow technology.

Company Website: https://www.virtu.com


 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Virtu Financial, Inc. (VIRT)18.5105.630.37
– Benchmark Symbol: XLF22.938.931.0

 

* Data through December 02, 2024


Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX): Industrials

LPX is currently trading at its all-time highs near $120.00 per share and has an overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly time-frame.

LPX is currently trading at its all-time highs near $120.00 per share and has an overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly time-frame.

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (Symbol: LPX) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. LPX scored a 62 in our fundamental rating system on November 6th.

At time of writing, only 4.74% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 10,674 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time and rose by 72 system points from our last update. LPX is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Industrials sector. The industry focus for LPX is Construction.

Louisiana-Pacific has beat earnings expectations four straight quarters and has a dividend of close to 0.88 percent with a payout ratio of 64 percent. The LPX stock price has also significantly surpassed the Industrials Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks and is up close to 70 percent year-to-date.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets building products primarily for use in new home construction, repair and remodeling, and outdoor structure markets. It operates through four segments: Siding; Oriented Strand Board (OSB); Engineered Wood Products (EWP); and South America.

Company Website: https://www.lpcorp.com


 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX)20.684.181.88
– Benchmark Symbol: XLI30.430.771.1

 

* Data through December 02, 2024


CONMED Corporation (CNMD): Healthcare

CNMD is trading around the $73.00 threshold currently and is significantly down from the $160.00 highs in 2022. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at just over the 50 level on the weekly time-frame.

CNMD is trading around the $73.00 threshold currently and is significantly down from the $160.00 highs in 2022. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at just over the 50 level on the weekly time-frame.

CONMED Corporation (Symbol: CNMD) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. CNMD scored a 56 in our fundamental rating system on October 31st.

At time of writing, only 8.17% of stocks have scored a 50 or better out of a total of 10,674 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time and rose by 14 system points from our last update. CNMD is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Healthcare sector. The industry focus for CNMD is Medical – Devices.

CONMED has beat earnings expectations three consecutive quarters and has a dividend of close to 1.08 percent with a payout ratio near 43 percent. The CNMD stock price has under-performed the Healthcare Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks by a large margin and is actually down by -33.86 percent year-to-date.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

CONMED Corporation, a medical technology company, develops, manufactures, and sells surgical devices and related equipment for surgical procedures worldwide.

Company Website: https://www.conmed.com


 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: CONMED Corporation (CNMD)17.2-32.231.46
– Benchmark Symbol: XLV24.611.650.7

 

* Data through December 02, 2024


Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (APAM): Financial Services

APAM is currently in an uptrend channel right under the $50 per share level with a bullish above 60 Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly time-frame.

APAM is currently in an uptrend channel right under the $50 per share level with a bullish above 60 Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly time-frame.

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (Symbol: APAM) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. APAM scored a 69 in our fundamental rating system on October 30th.

At time of writing, only 4.74% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 10,674 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time and rose by 19 system points from our last update. APAM is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Financial Services sector. The industry focus for APAM is Asset Management.

APAM has beat earnings expectations in October after two close misses in previous quarters and has a dividend of approximately 6.7 percent with a payout ratio near 87 percent. The APAM stock price has under-performed the Financial Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks but is higher by 9.62 percent year-to-date.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. is publicly owned investment manager. It provides its services to pension and profit sharing plans, trusts, endowments, foundations, charitable organizations, government entities, private funds and non-U.S. funds, as well as mutual funds, non-U.S. funds and collective trusts. It manages separate client-focused equity and fixed income portfolios. The firm invests in the public equity and fixed income markets across the globe.

Company Website: https://www.artisanpartners.com


 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (APAM)13.527.741.79
– Benchmark Symbol: XLF22.938.931.0

 

* Data through December 02, 2024


InterDigital, Inc. (IDCC): Technology

IDCC is currently trading at its all-time highs and challenging the $200.00 per share level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently overbought on the weekly time-frame.

IDCC is currently trading at its all-time highs and challenging the $200.00 per share level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently overbought on the weekly time-frame.

InterDigital, Inc. (Symbol: IDCC) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. IDCC scored a 67 in our fundamental rating system on November 1st.

At time of writing, only 4.74% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 10,674 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 5 times and stayed the same score from our last update. IDCC is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Technology sector. The industry focus for IDCC is Software – Application.

InterDigital has surpassed earnings expectations four quarters in a row and has a dividend of approximately 0.89 percent with a payout ratio of approximately 20 percent. The IDCC stock price has far surpassed the Financial Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks and is higher by almost 80 percent year-to-date.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

InterDigital, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs and develops technologies that enable and enhance wireless communications in the United States, China, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Europe. It provides technology solutions for use in digital cellular and wireless products and networks, including 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G, and IEEE 802-related products and networks.

Company Website: https://www.interdigital.com


 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: InterDigital, Inc. (IDCC)21.196.231.38
– Benchmark Symbol: XLK45.531.091.2

 

* Data through December 02, 2024


By InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies we add to our stock watch list.

All information, stock ideas and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Stock scores are a data driven process through company fundamentals and are not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Company descriptions provided by sec.gov.

Week Ahead: Will US500 stay above 6000 milestone?

By ForexTime 

  • US500 ↑ 5.1% MTD, pushing 2024 gains to almost 26%
  • Posted only 2 negative months in 2024 – April & October
  • Notched 52 record highs this year
  • Over past year NFP triggered moves of ↓ ↑ 0.8%
  • Technical levels – 6050, 6000, 5970

FXTM’s US500, which tracks the benchmark S&P 500 index could be on track for its best trading month in 2024.

But this will depend on whether bulls give one final push on the last trading day of November.

The Index has gained roughly 3.7% since Trump’s election win on November 5th.

Despite hawkish comments from Fed Powell sparking a selloff from 6000 mid-month, the “Trump trade” has kept bulls in the game with the US500 up roughly 5.1% month-to-date.

SP500

But as we enter December, the question is whether bulls can maintain their hunger for gains?

The US500 has dazzled investors, notching 52 record highs in 2024.

However, after breaching the psychological 6000 level, prices have traded within a range on the daily charts.

Still, prices up almost 26% year-to-date, adding to the 24.2% gains secured in 2023.

 

The incoming US jobs report among other key data points and speeches by Fed officials including Powell could impact the US500 in the week ahead:

Saturday, 30th November

  • CN50: China non-manufacturing PMI, manufacturing PMI

Monday, 2nd December

  • AU200: Australia retail sales, building approvals
  • CN50: China Caixin manufacturing PMI
  • EUR: Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, unemployment, Germany Manufacturing PMI
  • UK100: UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI
  • US500: US construction spending, ISM Manufacturing, Fed speeches

Tuesday, 3rd December

  • AUD: Australia current account
  • GBP: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves speech
  • USDInd: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speech

Wednesday, 4th December

  • AUD: Australia GDP
  • CN50: China Caixin services PMI
  • EU50: S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
  • US500: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech, Fed issues Beige Book
  • OECD publishes economic outlook.

Thursday, 5th December

  • AU200: Australia trade
  • EUR: Eurozone retail sales, Germany factory orders
  • OIL: OPEC+ ministerial meeting
  • TWN: Taiwan CPI
  • US500: US trade, initial jobless claims

Friday, 6th December

  • CAD: Canada unemployment
  • EUR: Eurozone GDP, Germany industrial production
  • JP225: Japan household spending
  • US500: US November jobs report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Fed speeches

Can the US500 move higher?

The foundations are in place for US equity bulls to keep their foot on the pedal.

Market optimism around corporate tax cuts and a softer regulatory environment under Trump could keep this party rolling. And markets still expect the Fed to cut interest rates by January 2025.

However, the prospect of slower Fed rate cuts in the face of rising inflation could cap gains down the road. Geopolitical tensions that result in a risk-off mode could also trigger a selloff.

 

What factors could rock the US500 in the week ahead?

    1) US November jobs report

Markets expect the US economy to have created 200,000 jobs in November, compared to the 12,000 in the previous month.

Note: The low NFP number for October was the product of hurricanes and Boeing strikes.

The unemployment rate is forecast to rise 4.2% while average earnings are projected to tick lower to 0.3% MoM.

Ultimately, signs of weakness in the US labour market may hit the US500. However, any declines could be cushioned by bets around the Fed cutting interest rates in an effort to stimulate growth.

Over the past year, the US jobs report has sparked upside moves of as much as 0.8% or declines of 0.8% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Note: Other key US data points such as the ISM Manufacturing and initial jobless claims may also impact the US500.

 

    2) Fed Chair Powell and Co.

Fed Chair Powell will deliver his speech on Wednesday 4th December with a handful of other policymakers speaking days before and after him. Given how these speeches may influence expectations around what action’s the Fed takes in December, it could move the US500.

  • Should dovish comments from Powell and co. boost bets around a December rate cut, the US500 may push higher.
  • If Powell and other Fed officials sound less dovish than expected, this could drag the US500 lower.

 

    3) Technical forces

The US500 is firmly bullish on the daily timeframe due to the consistently higher highs and higher lows.

Although prices are trading well above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching overbought territory.

  • A solid weekly close above the 6000 level may open a path to 6037, 6050 and 6100.    
  • Should prices slip below 6000, this may trigger a selloff toward 5970, 5930 and 5900.

 

US5004


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Donor-advised funds are drawing a lot of assets besides cash – taking a bigger bite out of tax revenue than other kinds of charitable giving

By Brian Mittendorf, The Ohio State University 

Donor-advised funds, or DAFs, are financial accounts funded by donors to support future charitable work. This kind of giving differs greatly from charitable giving as a whole because it’s much more likely to involve donations of assets like stock, real estate or cryptocurrencies that have gained in value.

That’s what my co-author, Helen Flannery and I, found in our new study that will soon be published in “Nonprofit Operations and Supply Chain Management” as part of an academic book series.

We examined the IRS filings of all charities from 2020 to 2022, including organizations that administer DAFs. Such DAF sponsors include charities affiliated with large financial companies like Vanguard, Schwab and Fidelity. By looking at the types of gifts received by these charities, we found that noncash giving represents more than 16% of the average DAF’s revenue versus only about 3% on average for overall charitable giving, which covers everything from animal shelters to orchestras.

This difference is even more pronounced for the largest national DAF operations, which on average had 46% of their incoming assets in noncash form.

These noncash gifts were primarily investment assets like stocks, bonds and real estate. We find that while the average conventional charity gets around 33% of its noncash contributions as investments, the average DAF sponsor gets more than 90% of its noncash donations that way.

This share is even higher, at over 97%, for the typical national DAF organization.

Why it matters

DAFs, first launched in the 1930s, have become much more widespread over the past three decades.

The total value of assets they hold is rising fast: It grew from US$70 billion in 2014 to more than $251 billion in 2023.

In some ways, DAFs operate like small foundations, since donors can get a tax break when they put money into a DAF, even if that money isn’t put into use by a charity for years. Donors also retain advisory control over the money they’ve reserved for future charitable giving.

But unlike foundations, there’s very little paperwork required, and there’s no requirement that a DAF disburse at least 5% of its assets annually – like foundations have to do.

Using investment assets as charitable donations is more advantageous to donors than just putting money in a DAF. One reason is that most large donors are eligible for a tax deduction equal to the full value of the asset that was donated at the time of the gift. That holds true, even if the value has risen significantly from what it initially was worth when the donor acquired it. The second reason is that donors don’t need to pay taxes on their capital gains as they would have had they sold it and obtained money in exchange.

Likewise, this boom in gifting investment assets can cut into government tax revenue more than typical cash gifts because it more effectively reduces an investor’s tax obligations.

Policymakers, lawmakers and regulators are currently considering whether to establish new rules for DAFs.

What’s next

We are now researching how the charities that administer DAFs differ from one another. We’re finding that some primarily market themselves as a way for donors to reduce their tax payments, while others put more emphasis on helping donors better manage their charitable giving.

The Research Brief is a short take about interesting academic work.The Conversation

About the Author:

Brian Mittendorf, Professor of Accounting, The Ohio State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & Nasdaq Minis

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (9,910 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (3,423 contracts) also showing a gaining week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the DowJones-Mini (-5,401 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-5,249 contracts), the VIX (-4,386 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-547 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.


Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by VIX & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (88 percent) and the Russell-Mini (84 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (74 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (70 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (34 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (88.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (92.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (69.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (68.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (73.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (82.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (69.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (64.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (84.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (87.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (34.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (35.0 percent)


Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (10 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The  S&P500-Mini (6 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 (-6 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-5.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (10.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (6.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (2.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-9.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-5.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (10.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (0.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-8.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-4.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-2.7 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,809 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.141.37.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.638.97.4
– Net Position:-8,8098,476333
– Gross Longs:78,339146,06826,481
– Gross Shorts:87,148137,59226,148
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.415.279.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.33.47.4

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 34,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,910 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,001 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.468.912.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.977.06.4
– Net Position:34,911-182,867147,956
– Gross Longs:348,3391,556,553291,954
– Gross Shorts:313,4281,739,420143,998
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.914.7100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.0-13.122.6

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 8,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,401 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.652.819.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.970.211.8
– Net Position:8,265-14,7576,492
– Gross Longs:19,99244,69116,466
– Gross Shorts:11,72759,4489,974
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.716.8100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.81.631.9

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 19,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,380 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.257.614.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.069.39.8
– Net Position:19,803-32,16212,359
– Gross Longs:66,681158,51339,446
– Gross Shorts:46,878190,67527,087
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.917.278.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.1-8.11.7

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 3,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,394 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.872.58.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.178.13.5
– Net Position:3,145-27,35624,211
– Gross Longs:77,154354,41141,366
– Gross Shorts:74,009381,76717,155
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.17.2100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.3-5.432.7

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:2.070.227.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.755.719.5
– Net Position:-2,4641,576888
– Gross Longs:2217,6203,008
– Gross Shorts:2,6856,0442,120
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.237.560.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.34.81.0

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -32,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -547 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,471 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.388.72.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.682.31.8
– Net Position:-32,01828,4053,613
– Gross Longs:36,620390,91011,462
– Gross Shorts:68,638362,5057,849
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.465.635.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.06.4-11.8

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Companies are still committing to net-zero emissions, even if it’s a bumpy road – here’s what the data show

By L. Beril Toktay, Georgia Institute of Technology; Abhinav Shubham, Georgia Institute of Technology; Donghyun (Daniel) Choi, Georgia Institute of Technology, and Manpreet S. Hora, Georgia Institute of Technology

Companies around the world are increasingly committed to cutting their greenhouse gas emissions to slow and ultimately reverse climate change.

One indicator is the number of companies that have set emissions targets as part of the Science Based Targets initiative, or SBTi, a global nonprofit organization. That number grew from 164 companies in late 2018 to over 6,600 by November 2024. And thousands more have committed to lower their emissions.

It’s not always a smooth road, however. Some of those companies – including big names like Microsoft and Walmart – have had to pull back on some of their SBTi commitments.

We study the history of SBTi pledges to understand these commitments and what can undermine them. We believe there is more to the story of these pullbacks than meets the eye.

What is net zero?

To understand corporate climate commitments, let’s start with the concept of “net zero.”

The Paris Agreement, an international treaty on climate change, aims to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) and ideally to 1.5 C (2.7 F). Meeting the more ambitious target of 1.5 C will require reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by around 2050.

Net zero is the point at which the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere is balanced by greenhouse gases removed, either through natural sources like forests or technologies such as carbon capture and storage.

The Science Based Targets initiative, developed alongside the Paris Agreement in 2015, provides a framework to help companies align their efforts with the 1.5 C goal.

SBTi commitments have grown quickly

To join the initiative, companies begin by signing a letter of commitment to set near-term (2030) and long-term (2050) targets for reducing their emissions. Companies have 24 months to develop targets that adhere to SBTi guidelines. If the targets are validated and approved by SBTi, the company announces its targets publicly. The targets must be revalidated every five years, or they expire.

The number of global companies committing to and setting targets with SBTi has grown rapidly in recent years.

By the end of 2023, 7,929 companies representing 39% of global market capitalization had committed to set targets, and 4,205 had targets already validated by SBTi. By November 2024, that number had grown to 6,614.

This impressive participation is particularly significant given SBTi’s high expectations. SBTi requires near-term targets to be set so companies reduce emissions by at least 42% by 2030 from 2020 levels.

Why some companies have pulled back

So, why are companies like, Walmart, Microsoft and Amazon scaling back their commitments with SBTi?

While some people attribute these moves to political pressure from fossil fuel supporters, a closer look at data since 2013 reveals a more complex set of factors that may better explain their actions.

We found that, over the past decade, 695 companies either withdrew near- or long-term commitments or had a commitment that expired and was terminated by SBTi. These actions were concentrated in two distinct periods.

The first period followed SBTi’s decision in April 2019 to update its criteria, including tightening the minimum target from under 2 C to either “well below 2 C” or 1.5 C. We believe several companies were unprepared to meet the new requirements. Among the 500 companies that had either committed to or set a target by the end of 2018, 94 (18.8%) terminated their initial commitments after the criteria changed.

The second period was after January 2023, when SBTi introduced a new compliance policy and began removing commitments that had expired. In this period, 531 commitments were terminated – 497 of them because the commitment expired, and 16 because the company withdrew.

It’s important to recognize that SBTi strategically raised the bar to encourage companies to accelerate their progress in addressing climate change.

Reasons some companies have struggled

In a report in March 2024, SBTi provided a candid look at companies’ climate commitments from 2019 to 2021 and, importantly, where they struggled.

Approximately half of the companies that responded to its survey identified the complexity of addressing Scope 3 emissions – emissions from a company’s supply chain and use of its products – as a primary obstacle to setting net-zero targets. The supply chain is often considered a blind spot for measuring environmental impact and is difficult for companies to control.

On the day the report was released, SBTi removed the long-term commitments of 239 companies. About 60% of those companies had near-term targets that remained.

This helps explain the news around companies such as Walmart, Microsoft and Amazon.

Walmart’s and Microsoft’s long-term net-zero commitments were terminated, though both companies still have valid near-term targets with SBTi.

Moreover, both reaffirm their environmental commitments in their annual reports. Walmart is currently finalizing its Scope 3 emissions analysis to inform future strategy development, and Microsoft is investing in carbon removal technologies to become carbon-negative by 2030.

Amazon presents a more challenging case. The company may have faced difficulty meeting SBTi’s stringent mandate, particularly around supply chain emissions. Amazon has said it is still committed to reaching net-zero emissions and plans to explore setting targets with other organizations.

Many companies are on track

Our analysis of SBTi’s progress data, which includes all companies that had set a target by 2022 for which SBTi has emissions data, reveals that companies are cutting their emissions by a median annual rate of 5.4%.

Looking just at direct emissions from companies’ operations (Scope 1) and their purchased electricity (Scope 2), companies did even better. The median annual emissions decrease was 7.25% for companies with both Scope 1 and Scope 2 targets.

Scope 2 emissions are the low-hanging fruit and frequently align with cost-saving measures like improving energy efficiency.

Scope 3 emissions, those generated by companies’ suppliers and by consumer use of their products, are the biggest challenge. Companies with a separate Scope 3 target only reduced those emissions by a median annual rate of about 3%.

In 2024, SBTi announced plans to revise its Net-Zero Standard and allow companies to use carbon offsets to meet their Scope 3 emissions targets, drawing intense criticism. Carbon offsets allow companies to pay projects to reduce emissions on their behalf, such as by planting trees or managing forests.

SBTi’s challenge lies in finding a balance that maintains the integrity of its standards while encouraging broader participation, especially from high-impact industries.

Other ways companies are reducing emissions

While setting and achieving SBTi targets signals a strong commitment to combating climate change, many companies are setting emissions goals and working toward them without joining SBTi.

An example is the Drawdown Georgia Business Compact. It was created to accelerate the adoption of 20 technology- and market-ready solutions and includes nearly 70 companies, from multinationals headquartered in Georgia like Delta and UPS to small- and medium-size enterprises operating in the state.

Through the compact, companies are advancing initiatives with local economic benefits. For example, they are exploring ways to maximize Georgia forests’ ability to remove carbon and discussing effective ways to deploy sustainable aviation fuels.

The road to net-zero emissions will be bumpy. Yet the rapid growth of global corporate commitments, as well as action by a wider range of companies at the regional level, suggests corporate efforts are nevertheless moving forward.The Conversation

About the Authors:

L. Beril Toktay, Professor of Operations Management, Georgia Institute of Technology; Abhinav Shubham, Ph.D. Candidate in Operations Management, Georgia Institute of Technology; Donghyun (Daniel) Choi, Ph.D. Candidate in Operations Management, Georgia Institute of Technology, and Manpreet S. Hora, Professor of Operations Management, Georgia Institute of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by MSCI EAFE & VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by MSCI EAFE & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the MSCI EAFE-Mini (17,352 contracts) with the VIX (12,245 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (735 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (288 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-88,439 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) and with the Russell-Mini (-398 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by VIX & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (92 percent) and the Russell-Mini (88 percent) led the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (83 percent) and S&P500-Mini (68 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (35 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (92.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (81.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (68.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (81.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (82.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (81.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (64.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (64.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (87.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (88.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (35.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (16.4 percent)


VIX tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (10 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (3 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Russell-Mini (-8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-6 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (10.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (-10.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (2.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (22.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-5.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-4.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (0.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (0.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-8.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-9.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-2.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-14.0 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,668 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.839.58.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.038.97.8
– Net Position:-4,4232,2632,160
– Gross Longs:83,713139,17729,674
– Gross Shorts:88,136136,91427,514
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.39.986.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.4-11.79.5

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 25,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -88,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.168.912.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.076.16.8
– Net Position:25,001-161,143136,142
– Gross Longs:360,9871,540,339288,150
– Gross Shorts:335,9861,701,482152,008
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.517.7100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.6-9.221.4

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 13,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.249.018.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.768.914.0
– Net Position:13,666-17,6453,979
– Gross Longs:26,66443,23016,310
– Gross Shorts:12,99860,87512,331
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.512.678.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.51.414.5

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 16,380 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,092 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.656.514.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.767.49.7
– Net Position:16,380-30,36313,983
– Gross Longs:71,007156,58540,901
– Gross Shorts:54,627186,94826,918
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.519.281.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.5-3.75.8

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,394 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,792 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.972.08.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.178.33.6
– Net Position:8,394-30,42922,035
– Gross Longs:81,169346,13739,360
– Gross Shorts:72,775376,56617,325
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.75.3100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.21.929.0

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:2.070.227.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.755.719.5
– Net Position:-2,4641,576888
– Gross Longs:2217,6203,008
– Gross Shorts:2,6856,0442,120
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.237.560.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.34.81.0

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -31,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 17,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,823 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.588.42.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.682.41.7
– Net Position:-31,47126,4255,046
– Gross Longs:37,792393,52712,545
– Gross Shorts:69,263367,1027,499
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.063.642.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.74.1-6.8

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Week Ahead: Will Nvidia earnings seal stock’s 200% jump in 2024?

By ForexTime

  • Nvidia: world’s largest company with US$3.6 trillion market cap
  • Shares already soared 196.3% so far this year
  • Earnings due after US markets close Wed, Nov 20
  • Shares forecasted to move 8% up/down Thur, Nov. 21
  • Nvidia accounts for 15% of total global stock volatility

 

The world’s most-valuable company is about to unveil its latest quarterly earnings.

And when Nvidia speaks, stock markets worldwide listen, and react.

After all, Nvidia alone accounts for about 15% of the total volatility for stock markets worldwide.

 

Here are some other facts you may not know about this AI-posterchild:

  • Nvidia became the largest company in the world since November 5th – US election day.
    (it previously held that title for just 1 day, on June 18, 2024, when it briefly surpassed Apple’s market cap).
  • Nvidia is valued (market cap) at US$3.6 trillion at the time of writing (before US markets open on Friday, Nov. 15th).
  • Nvidia has almost tripled (+196.35%) so far in 2024, making it the:
    – best-performing stock on the Nasdaq 100
    – 3rd biggest year-to-date gainer on the S&P 500 (after Vistra Corp’s +260% and Palantir’s +245%).

 

 

Why has Nvidia’s stocks skyrocketed?

Answer = AI-mania.

Nvidia’s GPUs are sorely needed by many tech companies around the world to fuel their respective AI ambitions.

Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon combined are expected to spend US$200 billion this year alone on capital expenditures, including AI spending.

UBS Wealth Management predicts that AI-spending by Big Tech companies could even reach US$266 billion in 2025!

All that has translated into massive revenue and profits for Nvidia, which could grow even more in the years ahead.

 

 

Nvidia earnings due Wednesday, Nov. 20th

With all of that in mind, no surprise that traders and investors around the world are bracing for this high-impact event in the middle of a relatively light week on the global macroeconomic calendar:

Monday, November 18

  • SG20: Singapore October external trade
  • THB: Thailand 3Q GDP
  • USDInd: Speech by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

Tuesday, November 19

  • AUD: RBA policy minutes
  • EU50 index: Eurozone October CPI (final)
  • CAD: Canada October CPI

Wednesday, November 20

  • JP225 index: Japan October trade balance
  • CNH: China loan prime rates
  • GBP: UK October CPI, PPI
  • ZAR: South Africa September retail sales; October CPI
  • TWN index: Taiwan October exports
  • Nvidia earnings

Thursday, November 21

  • NOK: Norway 3Q GDP
  • EUR: Eurozone November consumer confidence
  • ZAR: South African Reserve Bank rate decision
  • Baidu earnings
  • US30 index: US weekly initial jobless claims; speeches by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

Friday, November 22

  • JPY: Japan October national CPI; November PMIs
  • AU200 index: Australia November PMIs
  • GER40 index: Germany/Eurozone November PMIs
  • UK100 index: UK November PMIs and consumer confidence; October retail sales
  • TWN index: Taiwan October jobless rate
  • CAD: Canada September retail sales
  • RUS2000 index: US November PMIs, consumer sentiment (final)
  • MXN: Mexico 3Q GDP

 

 

Nvidia earnings: What to look out for

Here are Wall Street’s forecasts for some of Nvidia’s crucial Q3 financial figures:

  • Revenue: US$ 33.2 billion
  • Data Center revenue: US$ 29.1 billion
  • Gross profit margins: 75.5%
  • Net profits: US$ 18.54 billion
  • Earnings per share (EPS): $0.74

 

More importantly, given the forward-looking nature of financial markets (today’s prices reflect tomorrow’s hopes) …

Traders and investors are set to pay more attention to Nvidia’s guidance for future earnings.

 

For context, Nvidia’s Hopper GPUs have been a reliable engine for past and present earnings.

Nvidia’s revenues for the current 2025 fiscal year is expected to reach $125.6 billion double from the previous fiscal year.

 

However, Nvidia’s much-hyped Blackwell GPU family, despite a slight hiccup, appears to have overcome its recent delays.

That’s set to drive another 44% year-on-year climb for Nvidia’s revenue, reaching $181 billion for its 2026 fiscal year.

In short, markets are desperate to find out whether all is well with Blackwell (pun intended).

 

Blackwell Timeline:

  • Q4 2024: Blackwell GPUs to start shipping out
  • 2025: Blackwell production set to increase
  • Q1 2026: Blackwell GPUs forecasted to reach max output levels

 

How might Nvidia’s stocks react?

When US markets reopen on Thursday, November 21st, Nvidia’s shares are forecasted to move 8%, either up or down.

Of course, whether this stock climbs or falls will depend on Nvidia’s past and future earnings.

Nvidia’s stock prices could soar to a new record high if CEO Jensen Huang can further stoke market excitement with more details about its Blackwell ramp up in the years ahead.

Can Nvidia shares post new record high after Nov. 20th earnings announcement?

 

Potential Scenarios

Using prices at the time of writing (before US markets open on Friday, November 15th) …

  • an 8% upside could see Nvidia’s share price touching $158 next week for the first time in its history!
  • an 8% drop could see this stock faltering back into the mid-$130 region.

Given Nvidia’s already stunning surge so far this year, the bar has been set high for already hard-to-impress investors.

Recall that investors were left disappointed with Nvidia’s previous quarterly earnings announcement, resulting in a 6.4% drop on August 29th – the day after its last earnings release

If that sentiment is felt once more, that could translate into broader declines for US stock markets as well (watch the US500 and NAS100 stock indexes in particular).

 

For the longer term, Nvidia’s stocks are predicted to climb another 7.3% from current prices to eventually touch $157.73 over the next 12 months.

Of course, the above forecast is based on Bloomberg’s survey of Wall Street analysts prior to the upcoming earnings.

Should the AI-mania get another shot in the arm following Nvidia’s earnings, that $157.73 target price may be breached even by this Thursday.

And that would force Wall Street experts to scurry about making upward revisions to their 12-month target prices yet again, as they have done for much of the past couple of years.


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