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Archive for Metals – Page 8

13 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Gold, Copper & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Copper & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (13,232 contracts) with Copper (6,808 contracts), Silver (5,222 contracts) and Palladium (1,128 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-1,290 contracts) and Steel (-265 contracts).

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (100 percent) and Gold (91 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (85 percent), Platinum (79 percent) and Steel (73 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (28 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (91.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (85.2 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (92.9 percent)
Copper (85.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (79.1 percent)
Platinum (78.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (82.0 percent)
Palladium (28.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (20.9 percent)
Steel (73.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (74.3 percent)

Palladium & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (10 percent) and Gold (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-13 percent), Copper (-9 percent) and Steel (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (8.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (5.3 percent)
Silver (5.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-5.2 percent)
Copper (-8.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (-20.9 percent)
Platinum (-13.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-9.9 percent)
Palladium (9.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-1.7 percent)
Steel (-6.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 254,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 241,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.718.09.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.372.34.8
– Net Position:254,775-280,62925,854
– Gross Longs:303,04392,90750,623
– Gross Shorts:48,268373,53624,769
– Long to Short Ratio:6.3 to 10.2 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.210.864.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.2-8.05.4

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 61,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,222 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,834 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.720.520.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.372.55.5
– Net Position:61,056-84,79023,734
– Gross Longs:84,35133,49632,735
– Gross Shorts:23,295118,2869,001
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.3 to 13.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.085.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.2-4.1-0.8

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 56,031 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.523.88.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.349.43.9
– Net Position:56,031-67,54911,518
– Gross Longs:141,23762,86821,924
– Gross Shorts:85,206130,41710,406
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.5 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.412.287.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.87.91.7

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.921.212.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.257.44.1
– Net Position:22,666-29,5636,897
– Gross Longs:47,35017,38810,259
– Gross Shorts:24,68446,9513,362
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.4 to 13.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.512.876.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.16.939.2

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -9,557 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,685 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.354.87.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:66.014.86.8
– Net Position:-9,5579,369188
– Gross Longs:5,94612,8541,783
– Gross Shorts:15,5033,4851,595
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 13.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.373.553.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.9-8.5-12.6

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.679.50.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.951.71.3
– Net Position:-6,0336,142-109
– Gross Longs:3,01617,567183
– Gross Shorts:9,04911,425292
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.5 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.328.020.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.56.8-8.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
10 Jul

Expert Says Buy Copper

Source: Michael Ballanger (7/8/24) 

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. shares his thoughts on the current state of copper and gold and explains his positions in some stocks. 

When I started writing a newsletter decades ago, I did so for two reasons. The first was to condense communication to one mailed letter rather than several hundred telephone conversations; the second was to clarify my own thoughts. By that, I mean taking the ideas I had been formulating on the “investment climate as I see it” and translating those thoughts into a concise, comprehensible, and simple format that all clients could grasp without a great deal of explanation.

What started as an experiment evolved into a ritual, which in later years became a business where subscribers pay to know what I am thinking on the “investment climate as I see it.” In doing so, I was inadvertently imparting learned behaviors (and largely successful ones) from a past era to an entirely new generation of traders and investors. This new generation of investors would hear their parents and grandparents talk about the stock market in whispered reverence of names like Robert Friedland (Diamondfields), Ron Netolitzsky (Eskay Creek), and Chuck Fipke (Dia Met) and, in later eras, names like Chris Smith (Great Bear’s Dixie Project) and Blair Way (Patriot Battery Metals) — names all associated with massive wealth creation.

However, outside of Friedland, very few have replicated their victories. Few except, of course, Friedland, who has parlayed a billion-dollar win with Diamondfields into multiples of that with his family-owned Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN:TSX; IVPAF:OTCQX), which is one of the top mining performers for 2024, up 45.68% on the strength of its partial ownership of the staggering Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex in the DRC.

I met Friedland in the early 1990s long before the mercurial Voisey’s Bay “Hustle” that turned a decent nickel find in Labrador into a larger-than-life, world-class, must-own asset for nickel giant Inco Limited wound up (thanks to Friedland’s masterful prompting) pay double what they should have for the resource. It is names like Bob Friedland that keep old-timers like me coming back to the junior resource casino, but the one thing that I neglected to recognize in my recent travels is that it is names like Michael Saylor (Bitcoin) and Elon Musk (Tesla, Space-X) and Jensen Huang (NVidia) that dominate the collective psyches of the youthful investing demographic.

The “kiddies” (as I love to call them) have little experience in multi-bagger mining stock windfalls, but they have plenty of them in technology and “meme” stocks.

So, when I entitle my weekend missive “BUY COPPER,” I fully expect to look out into the audience and see a multitude of glazed eyes and unresponsive stares. While the electrification movement won over the Millennial and Gen-X throng with emphasis on battery metals and storage (lithium) and the clean-energy revolution implied by a return to nuclear (uranium), they have been largely unimpressed with the stories being told by some of the world’s most experienced resource managers.

Even the senior gold stocks like Barrick Gold Corp.’s (ABX:TSX; GOLD:NYSE) CEO (and resolute gold bug, Mark Bristow) have shifted to a copper-bias and now aggressively seek out copper-gold porphyry deposits over straight gold deposits as part of their new strategy.

One has to ask one’s self why these heretofore trumpeting sound money advocates of yesteryear are now moving — charging — into the world of copper. One also has to admire the brilliance of the management vision of global copper leader Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX:NYSE), whose portfolio of copper and gold operations has it superbly positioned to benefit from the rapidly accelerating structural shortage in the red metal. You have heard it and read it all before many times through eardrum-piercing screams and bold italicized capitals that waning global production brought on by hostile governments and declining grades has created a “too-little-too-late” conundrum verging upon crisis for copper consumers the world over.

I wrote about copper in 2023 at $3.40/lb. and urged ownership of FCX in the low $30’s when everyone was chastising me because I “obviously” did not “get it” because surely, with a recession about to ravage the U.S. (and the globe), my copper-bullish thesis was completely flawed. The big miners like Newmont and Barrick just kept acquiring copper-centric assets while the electrification crowd waving pompoms and blowing streamers about lithium as the new “Wonder-metal for the New Age” got their backsides handed to them in the wake of a 75% drop in lithium prices just as copper was quietly moving toward the $4.00/lb. then $5.00/lb. by early 2024.

I exited the copper market in mid-May at around $5.15/lb. only after scrolling down through Twitter and discovering that 90% of all the “kiddies” that were flag-waving over uranium and lithium juniors at the top in 2023 were now the newly-and-self-proclaimed experts in copper. Six-paragraph posts offering “The Ten Reasons Copper is headed to $10!” inundated the blogosphere, so seeing that I exited the copper ETFs and my beloved FCX (above $52), fully expecting a pullback in prices. Well, lo and behold, I got the 16.6% correction in copper, but alas, a testimonial to the incredible strength of their operations, the best (or worst) FCX could do was track back to just under $47 only to scream back to where it lies today at $51.68.

Agonizingly, I am forced to buy back my cherished Freeport a mere 50 cents under where I sold it. So be it.

The technical picture for copper could not get any more bullish. You have a “neutral” RSI down from “overbought” while just entering a bullish MACD crossover and “buy signal” along with a bullish money flow indicator.

More importantly, the Twitterverse is now silent, absent the incessant cheerleading so characteristic of a top as sentiment has become subdued once again and conditions ripe for the turn.

Gold

Gold has completed its correction and now looks poised to test the highs of last May at $225.66. I have yet to lift my minuscule hedge positions, but I still have 42 days until expiry, so I will wait to see what next week brings.

SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD:NYSE) was poised to test the 100-dma at what was $202 originally when I first put on the hedges, but the action has been so positive for gold that the 100-dma is now $209.34 and rising. I will not put on any further trading positions until my usual mid-August shopping spree for “all things golden,” but with both copper and now gold kicking back into overdrive, it looks like my overweight positions in copper and copper-gold juniors (Fitzroy Minerals Inc. (FTZ:TSX.V; FTZFF:OTCQB), Getchell Gold Corp. (GTCH:CSE; GGLDF:OTCQB),American Eagle Gold Corp. (AE:TSXV), and now Vortex Metals Inc. (VMSSF:OTCMKTS; VMS:TSX; DM8:FSE)) are going to be soon validated.

Let us all hope and pray that the blogosphere and the Twitterverse remain quiet until next year, some time allowing the two metal beasts to thrive and advance.

 

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Fitzroy Minerals Inc., Getchell Gold Corp., American Eagle Gold Corp., Vortex Metals Inc., and Barrick Gold Corp.
  2. Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., Freeport-McMoRan Inc., Fitzroy Minerals Inc., Getchell Gold Corp.,American Eagle Gold Corp. , and Vortex Metals Inc. My company has a financial relationship with Fitzroy Minerals Inc. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  3. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  4.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Michael Ballanger Disclosures

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

Metals Opinions
10 Jul

Gold Prices Rise Amid Anticipation of Fed Rate Cut

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices continue to experience an upward trend, reaching 2368 USD per troy ounce, fuelled by growing market anticipation of a potential rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. As investors focus on upcoming US inflation data, gold remains a focal point of investment interest.

In his recent testimony before Congress, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell highlighted June’s improved yet uncertain economic indicators. He noted the need for more comprehensive data to solidify inflation forecasts and hinted at concerns over a slowing economy and a cooling job market. These developments are considered critical drivers for the speculated rate cut in September, currently perceived as likely by 73% of market analysts.

Additionally, increased investment flows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) bolster gold’s appeal, marking a second consecutive month of positive cash inflows. This investment trend underscores gold’s role as a safe-haven asset amid financial market uncertainties.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

Gold’s (XAU/USD) trajectory on the H4 chart shows a potential movement towards the 2337.43 USD level. A rebound to 2365.20 USD could follow, testing this resistance from below. The market may then gear up for a further downward movement towards 2281.66 USD, potentially extending to 2175.00 USD. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which is currently at its peak and poised for a downward adjustment towards the zero level.

On the H1 chart, gold is consolidating around the 2365.20 USD mark. A downward break is anticipated, targeting 2337.43 USD as the immediate goal. Should this level be reached, a subsequent upward correction back to 2365.20 USD is likely. This scenario is validated by the Stochastic oscillator, which signals a potential decline from its current high position near 80, suggesting a near-term downward correction before further gains.

 

As the market navigates through these potential movements, investors remain vigilant, watching closely for any new economic data or policy shifts that could influence gold’s price dynamics and the broader financial landscape.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
05 Jul

Gold Maintains Upward Trend as Market Anticipates US Jobs Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices have continued their ascent, with a troy ounce of the precious metal reaching USD 2363. This rise is primarily fuelled by anticipated US employment data for June, which could significantly influence the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions.

Recent US economic indicators, including a contraction in the service sector and weaker-than-expected private sector employment figures from ADP, have painted a dovish picture regarding the Fed’s upcoming monetary policy moves. These factors contribute to the prevailing sentiment that the Fed might lower interest rates, with market probabilities favouring a cut by September currently standing at 73%.

Furthermore, ongoing political uncertainties in Europe, especially in France and the UK, affect the EUR exchange rate, thereby impacting the USD and indirectly influencing gold prices. Additionally, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

Gold (XAUUSD) is currently undergoing a correction that is anticipated to conclude at the level of 2370.70. Post-correction, the market might experience a decline towards 2295.00. A break below this could extend losses to 2222.22, setting a local target. This bearish potential is supported by the MACD indicator, which, although above zero, shows signs of peaking.

On the hourly chart, gold formed a tight consolidation around 2345.70 and breached the 2366.26 level upward, setting a local high. A corrective move down to 2345.70 is likely, followed by a potential rise to 2370.70, completing the current correction phase. Subsequently, the market might prepare for a new downtrend. The Stochastic oscillator, currently above 80, suggests an impending downturn, reinforcing the likelihood of a corrective decline.

Investors and traders will closely monitor the release of the US jobs report, given its potential to significantly sway Federal Reserve policy and, by extension, gold prices.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
29 Jun

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Platinum & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (4,739 contracts) with Silver (4,077 contracts), Gold (3,145 contracts) and Palladium (650 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-2,495 contracts) with Steel (-201 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (95 percent) and Gold (87 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (80 percent), Steel (74 percent) and Platinum (73 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (87.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (85.9 percent)
Silver (94.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (89.3 percent)
Copper (79.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (82.2 percent)
Platinum (73.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (60.4 percent)
Palladium (6.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (2.2 percent)
Steel (73.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (74.4 percent)

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (19 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is currently the only market with a positive trend score.

Palladium (-12 percent), Copper (-11 percent) and Platinum (-10 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (18.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (19.6 percent)
Silver (-4.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (-2.4 percent)
Copper (-10.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-9.3 percent)
Platinum (-10.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (5.9 percent)
Palladium (-12.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-15.1 percent)
Steel (-6.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-9.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 246,229 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 243,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:63.019.110.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.579.25.1
– Net Position:246,229-271,48825,259
– Gross Longs:284,88586,55148,436
– Gross Shorts:38,656358,03923,177
– Long to Short Ratio:7.4 to 10.2 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.314.562.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.8-16.1-8.5

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 55,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,077 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,901 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.923.721.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.372.16.6
– Net Position:55,978-80,71824,740
– Gross Longs:81,36639,37535,689
– Gross Shorts:25,388120,09310,949
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.3 to 13.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.92.790.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.80.813.5

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 50,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,495 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,621 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.724.19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.148.54.4
– Net Position:50,126-62,46512,339
– Gross Longs:134,79861,57523,624
– Gross Shorts:84,672124,04011,285
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.5 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.916.692.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.96.227.0

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,603 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.223.112.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.458.74.0
– Net Position:20,603-27,3526,749
– Gross Longs:43,19617,7239,788
– Gross Shorts:22,59345,0753,039
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.4 to 13.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.018.773.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.32.250.6

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,906 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,556 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.553.98.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:78.39.05.1
– Net Position:-12,90612,138768
– Gross Longs:8,22414,5582,158
– Gross Shorts:21,1302,4201,390
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 16.0 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.292.087.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.311.38.7

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -5,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.879.60.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.657.70.9
– Net Position:-5,9445,983-39
– Gross Longs:2,93221,676200
– Gross Shorts:8,87615,693239
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.627.428.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.57.2-21.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
19 Jun

Gold gains, but lags 5 other FXTM commodities

By ForexTime

  • Gold edges up 0.2% today; still stuck in sideways range since April
  • Bullion’s year-to-date gains now at 13.1%
  • Bloomberg model: Gold may be range-bound for another month
  • Fed rate cuts, PBOC buying needed to trigger next leg up
  • 5 other FXTM commodities outperformed gold so far in 2024

 

Gold’s luster has been waning of late.

To be certain, the precious metal added to its 13% gains from 2023 with a further 13% so far in 2024.

Despite posting fresh record highs in recent months, gold’s gains have stalled since mid-April.

Notice how spot gold attempted to break above the $2430 line back in mid-April and mid-May.

Those intraday spikes however could not be sustained.

Although edging higher at the time of writing, gold has been trading back below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since February 2024.

 

Why has gold’s rally stalled?

1) Lowered bets for Fed rate cuts this year

Back in March 2024, markets were according up to a 92% chance that the Fed would lower its benchmark rates by a total of 75 basis points (three rate cuts of 25-basis points each) by year-end.

Recall that gold offers no interest (zero yield) to holders of this asset. Hence, lower interest rates tend to reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.

In other words, lower rates boost the appeal of zero-yielding gold.

But with markets now predicting just two rate cuts (25-bps each) by the Fed this year, that has curbed gold’s upside, though providing support for the precious metal in the interim.

 

2) PBOC halted gold purchases

A big driver of gold’s surge has been the persistent buying from major central banks, especially the People’s Bank of China.

The PBoC bought about 10 million troy ounces worth of the precious metal since November 2022, as it sought to pad up and diversify its foreign reserves.

However, on 7th June 2024, it was revealed that the PBoC halted its 18-month buying spree in May 2024.

That news triggered a 3.5% drop in spot gold and dragged prices well below the 50-day SMA.

 

 

What could make gold’s rally resume?

  • Fed rate cuts

As mentioned earlier, markets need greater certainty that the Fed can indeed press ahead with its intended rate cuts.

Given its stated “data dependent” stance, the incoming US jobs/inflation data may prompt gold bulls to charge on once again.

  • Central bank buying

The PBoC and other central banks may yet be compelled to return to the market, either due to a further need to increase their foreign reserves, or if lower gold prices prove attractive enough.

A resumption of their buying spree should give fresh impetus for gold to move higher once more.

 

 

How is gold expected to perform over the days/weeks ahead?

According to Bloomberg’s model:

  • 74% chance of $2286 – $2382 over the next one-week period
  • 73% chance of $2246 – $2439 over the next one month.

Contrasting the above forecasted ranges to current prices …

Gold appears to retain a downside bias, with less chance of posting a new record high by mid-July.

Such an outlook would be keeping with the downtrend (lower highs and lower lows) since its current record high of $2450.03 on May 20th.

The Fed is also unlikely to give more concrete signals about its policy intentions before these central bankers are shown another couple months’ worth of jobs/inflation data.

The next FOMC policy meeting isn’t slated until July 31st.

Hence, gold bulls might have to bide their time in the interim, and perhaps endure bouts of profit-taking that results in dips for spot gold prices.

 

 

How has the rest of the FXTM commodities complex performed?

FXTM recently launched 10 new commodities, adding to the ranks that already feature Gold, Silver, Brent (oil), Crude (US crude oil), and NatGas (Natural Gas).

While gold’s 13% in year-to-date gains is certainly notable, it still lags behind the year-to-date gains seen in Silver, as well as 5 of those new commodities:

  1. Cocoa: +136.8%
  2. Robusta: +34.3%
  3. Silver: +24%
  4. Arabica: +20%
  5. Copper: +16.8%

 

 

Certainly it has been a good year so far for commodity bulls, thanks to lacking supply and resilient demand across the global economy.

  • However, if the global economic outlook deteriorates, due to demand-destroying elevated interest rates, that could prompt these commodities to unwind these stellar year-to-date gains.
  • To the upside, should major central banks press ahead with their plans to lower interest rates, which is supportive of demand for these commodities, that could boost these commodity prices even higher.

Either way, traders who are primed and ready stand to reap sizeable trading opportunities along the way, either up or down.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Metals
08 Jun

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Platinum & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Platinum & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (717 contracts) with Steel (441 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-5,001 contracts), Copper (-4,395 contracts), Palladium (-1,593 contracts) and with Silver (-780 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Copper

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (96 percent) and Copper (90 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (83 percent), Steel (82 percent) and Platinum (78 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (83.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (83.0 percent)
Silver (95.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (96.6 percent)
Copper (90.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (94.3 percent)
Platinum (78.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (91.6 percent)
Palladium (5.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.3 percent)
Steel (81.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (79.8 percent)

Platinum & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (40 percent) and Gold (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-4 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (15.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (15.6 percent)
Silver (-4.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (5.3 percent)
Copper (2.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (16.7 percent)
Platinum (40.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (24.9 percent)
Palladium (-22.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-12.9 percent)
Steel (-0.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 237,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 717 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 236,585 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:63.618.611.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.678.14.7
– Net Position:237,302-265,93128,629
– Gross Longs:284,56683,41849,807
– Gross Shorts:47,264349,34921,178
– Long to Short Ratio:6.0 to 10.2 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.316.866.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.5-16.014.9

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 56,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,183 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.323.019.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.968.35.9
– Net Position:56,403-81,52025,117
– Gross Longs:88,60441,28035,798
– Gross Shorts:32,201122,80010,681
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.3 to 13.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.51.8100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.1-4.737.1

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 61,127 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,395 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.327.98.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.854.33.6
– Net Position:61,127-74,71513,588
– Gross Longs:142,71279,24923,922
– Gross Shorts:81,585153,96410,334
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.5 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.26.0100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.5-7.335.0

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 22,566 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,001 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.620.09.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.149.24.1
– Net Position:22,566-28,1235,557
– Gross Longs:56,38919,2509,537
– Gross Shorts:33,82347,3733,980
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.4 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.316.650.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:40.3-35.5-27.9

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,672 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,593 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,079 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.556.99.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:80.37.97.2
– Net Position:-12,67212,189483
– Gross Longs:7,34214,1652,266
– Gross Shorts:20,0141,9761,783
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 17.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.394.870.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.118.430.8

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 441 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,329 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.477.41.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.860.81.4
– Net Position:-3,8883,922-34
– Gross Longs:4,11118,328303
– Gross Shorts:7,99914,406337
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.519.628.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.30.6-8.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
06 Jun

Gold prices reach 2368 USD amid speculation of Fed rate cuts

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices climbed to 2368 USD per troy ounce on Thursday, continuing the upward momentum for the second session. This surge comes as market expectations adjust to the likelihood of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, fuelled by recent employment data.

Data from ADP indicated that the number of private-sector jobs in the US for May increased less than expected, with April’s figures also revised downwards. This suggests a cooling but robust employment market, reinforcing speculation about impending rate cuts. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, market participants anticipate two rate cuts in 2024, with a 70% probability of easing by September.

Attention is now turning to Friday’s comprehensive labour market reports from the US, which will provide further insights into the economic health and possible direction of monetary policy. Additionally, recent global movements by central banks, such as the Bank of Canada’s first rate cut in four years and the expected rate cut by the European Central Bank today, are influencing gold prices.

XAU/USD technical analysis

The H4 chart shows that gold has broken out of a consolidation range established above the 2315.00 USD level, moving upwards. The market is now poised to reach 2395.00 USD potentially. Once this target is met, a retraction to 2356.20 USD for a test from above could occur before another possible rise to 2399.00 USD. The MACD indicator supports this bullish outlook, with its signal line below zero but ascending sharply towards new highs.

On the H1 chart, gold developed a growth wave towards 2356.20 USD, followed by a consolidation range forming below this level. The market has since broken upwards, continuing the growth trajectory towards 2378.23 USD. After reaching this level, a corrective movement back to 2356.20 USD may occur, potentially setting the stage for a push towards the 2395.00 USD mark. The Stochastic oscillator indicates that, while the signal line has dipped below 80, it is expected to rise again towards 80, suggesting continued upward momentum.

Market outlook

Gold prices are experiencing a bullish phase, underpinned by shifting expectations regarding US monetary policy and actions by other central banks. Investors should closely monitor the upcoming US employment data and global central bank decisions. These events could significantly influence gold’s price dynamics in the short term. The technical indicators suggest a continuation of the current uptrend, with key levels to watch for potential reversals or further gains.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
02 Jun

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold with a total rise of 6,779 contracts for the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-6,172 contracts), Silver (-2,461 contracts), Palladium (-655 contracts), Steel (-314 contracts) and  Platinum (-82 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Copper

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (97 percent), Copper (94 percent), Platinum (92 percent), Gold (83 percent) and Steel (80 percent) lead the metals markets this week and are all in Extreme-Bullish territory.

On the downside, Palladium (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (83.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (79.9 percent)
Silver (96.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (100.0 percent)
Copper (94.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (100.0 percent)
Platinum (91.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (91.8 percent)
Palladium (15.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (19.3 percent)
Steel (79.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (81.0 percent)

Platinum & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (25 percent) and Copper (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (16 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-6 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (15.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (12.3 percent)
Silver (5.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (8.9 percent)
Copper (16.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (27.0 percent)
Platinum (24.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (23.1 percent)
Palladium (-12.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-10.4 percent)
Steel (-6.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (-10.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 236,585 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,779 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 229,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:59.122.510.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.376.25.6
– Net Position:236,585-260,95024,365
– Gross Longs:286,737109,18151,528
– Gross Shorts:50,152370,13127,163
– Long to Short Ratio:5.7 to 10.3 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.018.852.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.6-15.611.3

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 57,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,644 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.624.819.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.768.76.4
– Net Position:57,183-81,07223,889
– Gross Longs:91,73045,93035,705
– Gross Shorts:34,547127,00211,816
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.4 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.62.3100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.3-8.018.1

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 65,522 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,694 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.426.78.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.552.44.3
– Net Position:65,522-76,75411,232
– Gross Longs:153,73979,82124,148
– Gross Shorts:88,217156,57512,916
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.5 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.34.390.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.7-17.817.4

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 27,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -82 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,649 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.318.910.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.853.35.2
– Net Position:27,567-32,1404,573
– Gross Longs:58,27217,7259,420
– Gross Shorts:30,70549,8654,847
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.4 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.65.929.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.9-22.7-10.8

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,424 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.555.78.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:73.510.47.1
– Net Position:-11,07910,681398
– Gross Longs:6,25713,1392,078
– Gross Shorts:17,3362,4581,680
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 15.3 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.285.665.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.810.123.3

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.279.81.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.764.21.3
– Net Position:-4,3294,360-31
– Gross Longs:3,71922,396344
– Gross Shorts:8,04818,036375
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.821.229.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.16.5-10.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
02 Jun

Speculator Extremes: US Treasury Bond, Silver lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 28th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

US Treasury Bond


The US Treasury Bond speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The US Treasury Bond speculator level is currently at a 98.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 20.8 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 43,836 net contracts this week with a gain of 29,660 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Silver


The Silver speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is now at a 96.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 5.3 this week. The speculator position registered 57,183 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -2,461 contracts in speculator bets.

Copper


The Copper speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Copper speculator level resides at a 94.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 16.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 65,522 net contracts this week with a decrease of -6,172 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Platinum


The Platinum speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Platinum speculator level is at a 91.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 24.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 27,567 net contracts this week with a dip by -82 contracts in the speculator bets.

Mexican Peso


The Mexican Peso speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level sits at a 90.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.3 this week.

The speculator position was 120,919 net contracts this week with an increase of 3,027 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar


The Sugar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19.3 this week. The overall speculator position was 5,105 net contracts this week with a reduction by-3,316 contracts in the speculator bets.

Swiss Franc


The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Swiss Franc speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.1 this week. The speculator position was -44,366 net contracts this week with a decline of -3,721 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Brazil Real


The Brazil Real speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Brazil Real speculator level resides at a 1.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -42.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -36,582 net contracts this week with a rise of 1,076 contracts in the speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar


The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Canadian Dollar speculator level is at a 3.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.8 this week. The speculator position was -86,585 net contracts this week with a boost of 4,239 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond


Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 5.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.7 this week. The speculator position was -1,377,117 net contracts this week with an increase of 45,688 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Metals Opinions
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