Metals

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Gold Nears Record High as Fed Rate Cut Looms

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices have surged, reaching $2430 per troy ounce on Tuesday, flirting with historic highs. The recent spike in gold prices is largely attributed to comments made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which have bolstered expectations of an impending interest rate cut.

In his latest address, Powell highlighted that recent U.S. economic indicators are encouraging, suggesting that inflation is moving towards the target. Importantly, he indicated that the Federal Reserve might initiate monetary easing before inflation strictly hits the 2% target mark.

Market anticipation for rate adjustments is palpable, with consensus almost fully expecting a rate cut as early as September, with a potential second cut before year-end. Such monetary policy adjustments typically bolster gold prices, making it an attractive investment in times of lower interest rates.

Concurrently, the political landscape in the U.S. could influence market dynamics. Increasing prospects of Donald Trump’s success in the upcoming presidential race could strengthen the U.S. dollar and uplift Treasury yields, potentially tempering gold’s rally.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair has recently executed a significant upward move to $2420.50 and is now oscillating within a consolidation range near this level. We might see an extension of this range up to $2444.44. Should this level be reached, a corrective pullback to $2350.50 could ensue. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, which shows a strong upward trend.

On the hourly chart, gold has breached the $2420.50 mark and is stabilizing above this threshold. We anticipate further growth towards $2444.44. Upon achieving this peak, a potential reversal towards $2350.50 may occur, marking the commencement of a bearish phase. The Stochastic oscillator, currently positioned above 80, suggests a downward adjustment is likely following the climb.

Investors and traders are advised to monitor these levels closely, especially in light of upcoming economic data and Fed communications which could further sway gold’s price trajectory.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

13 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Gold, Copper & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Copper & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (13,232 contracts) with Copper (6,808 contracts), Silver (5,222 contracts) and Palladium (1,128 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-1,290 contracts) and Steel (-265 contracts).

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (100 percent) and Gold (91 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (85 percent), Platinum (79 percent) and Steel (73 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (28 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (91.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (85.2 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (92.9 percent)
Copper (85.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (79.1 percent)
Platinum (78.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (82.0 percent)
Palladium (28.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (20.9 percent)
Steel (73.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (74.3 percent)

Palladium & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (10 percent) and Gold (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-13 percent), Copper (-9 percent) and Steel (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (8.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (5.3 percent)
Silver (5.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-5.2 percent)
Copper (-8.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (-20.9 percent)
Platinum (-13.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-9.9 percent)
Palladium (9.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-1.7 percent)
Steel (-6.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 254,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 241,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.7	18.0	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	72.3	4.8
– Net Position:	254,775	-280,629	25,854
– Gross Longs:	303,043	92,907	50,623
– Gross Shorts:	48,268	373,536	24,769
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.3 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.2	10.8	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.2	-8.0	5.4

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 61,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,222 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,834 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.7	20.5	20.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	72.5	5.5
– Net Position:	61,056	-84,790	23,734
– Gross Longs:	84,351	33,496	32,735
– Gross Shorts:	23,295	118,286	9,001
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	85.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	-4.1	-0.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 56,031 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.5	23.8	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	49.4	3.9
– Net Position:	56,031	-67,549	11,518
– Gross Longs:	141,237	62,868	21,924
– Gross Shorts:	85,206	130,417	10,406
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.4	12.2	87.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	7.9	1.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.9	21.2	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	57.4	4.1
– Net Position:	22,666	-29,563	6,897
– Gross Longs:	47,350	17,388	10,259
– Gross Shorts:	24,684	46,951	3,362
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.5	12.8	76.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	6.9	39.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -9,557 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,685 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	54.8	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.0	14.8	6.8
– Net Position:	-9,557	9,369	188
– Gross Longs:	5,946	12,854	1,783
– Gross Shorts:	15,503	3,485	1,595
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	73.5	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.9	-8.5	-12.6

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	79.5	0.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	51.7	1.3
– Net Position:	-6,033	6,142	-109
– Gross Longs:	3,016	17,567	183
– Gross Shorts:	9,049	11,425	292
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	28.0	20.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	6.8	-8.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

10 Jul

Expert Says Buy Copper

Source: Michael Ballanger (7/8/24)

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. shares his thoughts on the current state of copper and gold and explains his positions in some stocks.

When I started writing a newsletter decades ago, I did so for two reasons. The first was to condense communication to one mailed letter rather than several hundred telephone conversations; the second was to clarify my own thoughts. By that, I mean taking the ideas I had been formulating on the “investment climate as I see it” and translating those thoughts into a concise, comprehensible, and simple format that all clients could grasp without a great deal of explanation.

What started as an experiment evolved into a ritual, which in later years became a business where subscribers pay to know what I am thinking on the “investment climate as I see it.” In doing so, I was inadvertently imparting learned behaviors (and largely successful ones) from a past era to an entirely new generation of traders and investors. This new generation of investors would hear their parents and grandparents talk about the stock market in whispered reverence of names like Robert Friedland (Diamondfields), Ron Netolitzsky (Eskay Creek), and Chuck Fipke (Dia Met) and, in later eras, names like Chris Smith (Great Bear’s Dixie Project) and Blair Way (Patriot Battery Metals) — names all associated with massive wealth creation.

However, outside of Friedland, very few have replicated their victories. Few except, of course, Friedland, who has parlayed a billion-dollar win with Diamondfields into multiples of that with his family-owned Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN:TSX; IVPAF:OTCQX), which is one of the top mining performers for 2024, up 45.68% on the strength of its partial ownership of the staggering Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex in the DRC.

I met Friedland in the early 1990s long before the mercurial Voisey’s Bay “Hustle” that turned a decent nickel find in Labrador into a larger-than-life, world-class, must-own asset for nickel giant Inco Limited wound up (thanks to Friedland’s masterful prompting) pay double what they should have for the resource. It is names like Bob Friedland that keep old-timers like me coming back to the junior resource casino, but the one thing that I neglected to recognize in my recent travels is that it is names like Michael Saylor (Bitcoin) and Elon Musk (Tesla, Space-X) and Jensen Huang (NVidia) that dominate the collective psyches of the youthful investing demographic.

The “kiddies” (as I love to call them) have little experience in multi-bagger mining stock windfalls, but they have plenty of them in technology and “meme” stocks.

So, when I entitle my weekend missive “BUY COPPER,” I fully expect to look out into the audience and see a multitude of glazed eyes and unresponsive stares. While the electrification movement won over the Millennial and Gen-X throng with emphasis on battery metals and storage (lithium) and the clean-energy revolution implied by a return to nuclear (uranium), they have been largely unimpressed with the stories being told by some of the world’s most experienced resource managers.

Even the senior gold stocks like Barrick Gold Corp.’s (ABX:TSX; GOLD:NYSE) CEO (and resolute gold bug, Mark Bristow) have shifted to a copper-bias and now aggressively seek out copper-gold porphyry deposits over straight gold deposits as part of their new strategy.

One has to ask one’s self why these heretofore trumpeting sound money advocates of yesteryear are now moving — charging — into the world of copper. One also has to admire the brilliance of the management vision of global copper leader Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX:NYSE), whose portfolio of copper and gold operations has it superbly positioned to benefit from the rapidly accelerating structural shortage in the red metal. You have heard it and read it all before many times through eardrum-piercing screams and bold italicized capitals that waning global production brought on by hostile governments and declining grades has created a “too-little-too-late” conundrum verging upon crisis for copper consumers the world over.

I wrote about copper in 2023 at $3.40/lb. and urged ownership of FCX in the low $30’s when everyone was chastising me because I “obviously” did not “get it” because surely, with a recession about to ravage the U.S. (and the globe), my copper-bullish thesis was completely flawed. The big miners like Newmont and Barrick just kept acquiring copper-centric assets while the electrification crowd waving pompoms and blowing streamers about lithium as the new “Wonder-metal for the New Age” got their backsides handed to them in the wake of a 75% drop in lithium prices just as copper was quietly moving toward the $4.00/lb. then $5.00/lb. by early 2024.

I exited the copper market in mid-May at around $5.15/lb. only after scrolling down through Twitter and discovering that 90% of all the “kiddies” that were flag-waving over uranium and lithium juniors at the top in 2023 were now the newly-and-self-proclaimed experts in copper. Six-paragraph posts offering “The Ten Reasons Copper is headed to $10!” inundated the blogosphere, so seeing that I exited the copper ETFs and my beloved FCX (above $52), fully expecting a pullback in prices. Well, lo and behold, I got the 16.6% correction in copper, but alas, a testimonial to the incredible strength of their operations, the best (or worst) FCX could do was track back to just under $47 only to scream back to where it lies today at $51.68.

Agonizingly, I am forced to buy back my cherished Freeport a mere 50 cents under where I sold it. So be it.

The technical picture for copper could not get any more bullish. You have a “neutral” RSI down from “overbought” while just entering a bullish MACD crossover and “buy signal” along with a bullish money flow indicator.

More importantly, the Twitterverse is now silent, absent the incessant cheerleading so characteristic of a top as sentiment has become subdued once again and conditions ripe for the turn.

Gold

Gold has completed its correction and now looks poised to test the highs of last May at $225.66. I have yet to lift my minuscule hedge positions, but I still have 42 days until expiry, so I will wait to see what next week brings.

SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD:NYSE) was poised to test the 100-dma at what was $202 originally when I first put on the hedges, but the action has been so positive for gold that the 100-dma is now $209.34 and rising. I will not put on any further trading positions until my usual mid-August shopping spree for “all things golden,” but with both copper and now gold kicking back into overdrive, it looks like my overweight positions in copper and copper-gold juniors (Fitzroy Minerals Inc. (FTZ:TSX.V; FTZFF:OTCQB), Getchell Gold Corp. (GTCH:CSE; GGLDF:OTCQB),American Eagle Gold Corp. (AE:TSXV), and now Vortex Metals Inc. (VMSSF:OTCMKTS; VMS:TSX; DM8:FSE)) are going to be soon validated.

Let us all hope and pray that the blogosphere and the Twitterverse remain quiet until next year, some time allowing the two metal beasts to thrive and advance.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Fitzroy Minerals Inc., Getchell Gold Corp., American Eagle Gold Corp., Vortex Metals Inc., and Barrick Gold Corp.
Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., Freeport-McMoRan Inc., Fitzroy Minerals Inc., Getchell Gold Corp.,American Eagle Gold Corp. , and Vortex Metals Inc. My company has a financial relationship with Fitzroy Minerals Inc. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Michael Ballanger Disclosures

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

Metals Opinions

10 Jul

Gold Prices Rise Amid Anticipation of Fed Rate Cut

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices continue to experience an upward trend, reaching 2368 USD per troy ounce, fuelled by growing market anticipation of a potential rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. As investors focus on upcoming US inflation data, gold remains a focal point of investment interest.

In his recent testimony before Congress, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell highlighted June’s improved yet uncertain economic indicators. He noted the need for more comprehensive data to solidify inflation forecasts and hinted at concerns over a slowing economy and a cooling job market. These developments are considered critical drivers for the speculated rate cut in September, currently perceived as likely by 73% of market analysts.

Additionally, increased investment flows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) bolster gold’s appeal, marking a second consecutive month of positive cash inflows. This investment trend underscores gold’s role as a safe-haven asset amid financial market uncertainties.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

Gold’s (XAU/USD) trajectory on the H4 chart shows a potential movement towards the 2337.43 USD level. A rebound to 2365.20 USD could follow, testing this resistance from below. The market may then gear up for a further downward movement towards 2281.66 USD, potentially extending to 2175.00 USD. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which is currently at its peak and poised for a downward adjustment towards the zero level.

On the H1 chart, gold is consolidating around the 2365.20 USD mark. A downward break is anticipated, targeting 2337.43 USD as the immediate goal. Should this level be reached, a subsequent upward correction back to 2365.20 USD is likely. This scenario is validated by the Stochastic oscillator, which signals a potential decline from its current high position near 80, suggesting a near-term downward correction before further gains.

As the market navigates through these potential movements, investors remain vigilant, watching closely for any new economic data or policy shifts that could influence gold’s price dynamics and the broader financial landscape.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

05 Jul

Gold Maintains Upward Trend as Market Anticipates US Jobs Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices have continued their ascent, with a troy ounce of the precious metal reaching USD 2363. This rise is primarily fuelled by anticipated US employment data for June, which could significantly influence the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions.

Recent US economic indicators, including a contraction in the service sector and weaker-than-expected private sector employment figures from ADP, have painted a dovish picture regarding the Fed’s upcoming monetary policy moves. These factors contribute to the prevailing sentiment that the Fed might lower interest rates, with market probabilities favouring a cut by September currently standing at 73%.

Furthermore, ongoing political uncertainties in Europe, especially in France and the UK, affect the EUR exchange rate, thereby impacting the USD and indirectly influencing gold prices. Additionally, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

Gold (XAUUSD) is currently undergoing a correction that is anticipated to conclude at the level of 2370.70. Post-correction, the market might experience a decline towards 2295.00. A break below this could extend losses to 2222.22, setting a local target. This bearish potential is supported by the MACD indicator, which, although above zero, shows signs of peaking.

On the hourly chart, gold formed a tight consolidation around 2345.70 and breached the 2366.26 level upward, setting a local high. A corrective move down to 2345.70 is likely, followed by a potential rise to 2370.70, completing the current correction phase. Subsequently, the market might prepare for a new downtrend. The Stochastic oscillator, currently above 80, suggests an impending downturn, reinforcing the likelihood of a corrective decline.

Investors and traders will closely monitor the release of the US jobs report, given its potential to significantly sway Federal Reserve policy and, by extension, gold prices.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

29 Jun

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Platinum & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (4,739 contracts) with Silver (4,077 contracts), Gold (3,145 contracts) and Palladium (650 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-2,495 contracts) with Steel (-201 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (95 percent) and Gold (87 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (80 percent), Steel (74 percent) and Platinum (73 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (87.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (85.9 percent)
Silver (94.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (89.3 percent)
Copper (79.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (82.2 percent)
Platinum (73.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (60.4 percent)
Palladium (6.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (2.2 percent)
Steel (73.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (74.4 percent)

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (19 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is currently the only market with a positive trend score.

Palladium (-12 percent), Copper (-11 percent) and Platinum (-10 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (18.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (19.6 percent)
Silver (-4.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (-2.4 percent)
Copper (-10.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-9.3 percent)
Platinum (-10.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (5.9 percent)
Palladium (-12.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-15.1 percent)
Steel (-6.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-9.0 percent)