Archive for Metals – Page 28

17 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Palladium (309 contracts) with also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-14,142 contracts) with Silver (-8,771 contracts), Platinum (-7,881 contracts), Copper (-5,564 contracts) and Steel (-588 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-12-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold441,2219123,86432-144,8106820,94632
Silver125,2921418,03344-32,0405514,00744
Copper196,19839-12,334209,886802,44834
Palladium17,83882-10,712210,76199-4939
Platinum87,0211006,72131-12,396685,67544

 

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (61 percent) and Silver (44 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (20 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Platinum (31 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (31.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (37.8 percent)
Silver (44.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (56.5 percent)
Copper (20.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (25.0 percent)
Platinum (31.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (49.3 percent)
Palladium (2.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (60.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (62.3 percent)

Steel & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (-9 percent) and Palladium (-10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (-18 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Gold (-18 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-20 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-18.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-15.7 percent)
Silver (-18.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.4 percent)
Copper (-19.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-6.9 percent)
Platinum (-12.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-2.0 percent)
Palladium (-9.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-17.9 percent)
Steel (-8.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 123,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 138,006 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.425.610.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.358.45.8
– Net Position:123,864-144,81020,946
– Gross Longs:235,704113,06246,740
– Gross Shorts:111,840257,87225,794
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.4 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.668.132.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.116.2-2.5

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,771 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,804 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.331.921.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.957.59.9
– Net Position:18,033-32,04014,007
– Gross Longs:52,96340,03026,427
– Gross Shorts:34,93072,07012,420
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.6 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.055.144.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.314.54.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,334 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,564 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,770 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.339.08.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.634.06.9
– Net Position:-12,3349,8862,448
– Gross Longs:67,33376,56116,045
– Gross Shorts:79,66766,67513,597
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.279.833.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.923.2-31.3

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,721 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.123.010.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.437.23.9
– Net Position:6,721-12,3965,675
– Gross Longs:43,61919,9999,083
– Gross Shorts:36,89832,3953,408
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.6 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.167.944.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.910.56.7

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 309 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,021 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.062.99.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:85.02.69.4
– Net Position:-10,71210,761-49
– Gross Longs:4,45211,2171,627
– Gross Shorts:15,1644561,676
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 124.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.199.238.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.67.912.6

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,442 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.588.01.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.663.21.8
– Net Position:-5,0305,182-152
– Gross Longs:1,15418,389215
– Gross Shorts:6,18413,207367
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.640.04.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.99.5-22.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
12 Sep

Lithium Deals

Source: Michael Ballanger  (9/11/23)

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. takes a look at the current state of lithium, and one lithium stock he believes is still a “Strong Buy.” 

The popularity of the lithium stocks was concentrated on the Australian deals, with the rush starting in 2015 and slowly gaining momentum throughout the 2020-2022 period, with many billions of dollars raised for and committed to lithium carbonate production.

As can be seen from the graphic posted above, lithium demand is growing so rapidly that a tripling of global production will only just keep markets adequately balanced.

Furthermore, despite new discoveries in Canada and Australia, the 6-15 year development time means that companies that can meet demand quickly will be the prime beneficiaries of such demand, which rules out the “miners” but which quickly and dynamically includes the “briners.”

Within that category, those with immediate access to oilfield brines, where infrastructure is already in place, will be the first group to seize the spoils of the supply-demand imbalance, whereas the hard-rock pegmatite developers carry the risk of time in their feasibility studies.

Since stock charts can be quite revealing as to investment trends and prevailing sentiment, look at the chart of hard-rock pegmatite discoverer Patriot Battery Metals Inc. (PMET:CA) whose Corvette Property contains the largest lithium pegmatite deposit in the Americas and the 8th largest globally.

The stock price peaked in June at CA$17.74 and has since declined over 34% as the weight of a CA$1.8 billion market cap met face-to-face with a 6-15-year development window. In other words, no cash flow or similar return to shareholders would be seen until almost 2030 and possibly 2040. PMET is arguably the leader in the field for hard-rock lithium “miners,” and the stock chart suggests that it has peaked, at least on a near-term basis.

The leader in the oilfield brine extractors (“Direct Lithium Extraction” or “DLE”) is Canadian-based E3 Lithium Ltd. (ETL:TSXV;EEMMF:US), whose share price has seen a substantial leap since the July correction before peaking at CA$5.24 this morning in what appears to be a classic blow-off. However, the stock is the poster child for the “briners” and reached a market cap this morning at almost CA$400 million.

The major question regarding pricing revolves around the proximity to cash flow. Any of the “briners” will be able to produce lithium far more rapidly than will the “miners,” so when comparing the current CA$1.64 billion market cap for PMET to the CA$400 million market cap for ETL, do you assign a greater value on resource size than proximity to cash flow?

As was stated in the Goldman Sachs report, big money has seen how fast a spiking commodity price can attract new supply and how quickly that new supply can derail even the strongest of momentum stories. This, I believe, is why money is rotating out of the “miners” and into the “briners,” so looking at market caps of some of the Aussie lithium deals (all in the A$ billions) against market caps in North America, there is little surprise that money flow is shifting to the “briners.”

I was unable to pick off the lithium story until quite late in the global run in these stocks, so when I discovered that the former Allied Copper Corp. had joined forces with Volt Lithium Corp. (VLT:TSV;VLTLF:US), I was at once both delighted and fearful, as being late to a specific commodity-driven stock party always turns out in disaster.

I know more than a few stock players that got roasted in 2001 with internet stocks and, more recently, in 2018 with the cannabis craze.

Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB:NYSE; ACB:TSX) peaked in mid-2018 at nearly CA$200/share before falling out of favor (off the peak of Mt. Everest) today residing at a mere CA$0.71.

So, when I view the market cap of VLT/VLTLF at CAD $64 million versus ETL/EMMFF at CAD $400 million versus PMET at $1.64 billion, I am overwhelmed by the opportunity in front of us.

Could Volt see a market cap comparable to Patriot Battery Metals?

The company has a target of 20,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide production by mid-2027, carrying a gross revenue (assuming CA$43,000/tonne Li) of CA$860 million against costs of CA$70 million. Pre-tax earnings of CA$790 million on a share count of 200,000,000 of CA$3.95 per share. Assume a 30 multiple, and you arrive at CA$118.50 per share. With 200m shares issued, the market cap would be CA$23.7 billion.

Now, could my projections be based upon either natural-born optimism or hope or well-aimed prayers at the deity of my choosing?

To a degree, yes, but I am also a realist and a trained finance major who understands the elasticity of valuations based on cash flow generation. Most of the more speculative deals I have done in my career have been a Getchell-type analysis where the in-ground metal value of the resource takes precedence over cash flow proximity. In the case of both PMET and ETL, they are promoting resource size over cash flow proximity. In the case of Volt, it is precisely its proximity to cash flow generation that sets it apart.

The stock went out at CA$0.375 tonight, which was up 41.5% from the weekly lows and remains up 172.73% year-to-date.

Volt Lithium Corp. remains a “Strong Buy” despite the “overbought” readings and based upon the relatively low comparative market capitalization.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Volt Lithium Corp. has a consulting relationship with an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, and pays a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Volt Lithium Corp.
  3. Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All. My company has a financial relationship with Volt Lithium Corp. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  4. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  5.  This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here

Michael Ballanger Disclosures

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

Financial News Metals
11 Sep

Trade Of The Week: Gold Outlook Hinges On US CPI Data

By ForexTime

Gold prices caught our attention on Monday morning after briefly punching above $1930 as the dollar retreated.

Over the last few weeks, the precious metal has been influenced by conflicting forces and this continues to be reflected in the choppy price action. The potent cocktail of themes ranging from Fed hike expectations, global growth concerns, and dollar volatility among others have trapped prices within a wide range.

Bulls and bears remain engaged in a fierce tug of war with a fresh fundamental spark needed to shift the scales of power in one direction. Regarding the technical outlook, gold is still respecting a bearish channel on the weekly charts. However, strong support can be found at $1915 – a level where the 200-day SMA resides. 

This could be an intense week for gold and here are 3 reasons why:

  1. US August CPI report 

The August US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report published on Wednesday, September 13 will act as a critical piece of information that determines whether the Fed will keep rates higher for longer.

Given gold’s zero-yielding nature, this pending report has the potential to trigger explosive levels of volatility.

Market expectations for US August CPI:

  • CPI year-on-year (August 2023 vs. August 2022) to rise 3.6% from 3.2% in the prior month.
  • Core CPI year-on-year to rise 4.3% from 4.7% seen in July.
  • CPI month-on-month (August 2023 vs. August 2023) to rise 0.6% from 0.2% in the prior month.
  • Core CPI month-on-month to remain unchanged at 0.2% from 0.2% seen in July.

Headline inflation is expected to jump thanks to higher energy costs, but all eyes will be on the core CPI figures which are forecast to remain unchanged month-on-month. Ultimately, further signs of cooling inflationary pressures may feed the argument around the Fed concluding its hiking cycle.

It is worth noting that traders are currently pricing in a 7% probability of a 25-basis point hike this month, with this jumping to 44% by November, according to Fed funds futures.

  • Gold prices could shine if the inflation numbers print below market forecast, as signs of slowing inflation strengthen the argument around the Fed already finished with hikes in 2023.
  • Should the inflation figures print above market forecasts, gold prices are likely to depreciate as expectations rise around the Fed having headroom to hike one time this year.

  1. US data dump 

After the main course, which is the US CPI report, investors will be dished out more key US economic reports in the second half of the trading week to complete the meal.

All eyes will be on the US retail sales, PPI, initial jobless claims, industrial production, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment which could provide insight into the health of the US economy. When factoring the Fed’s emphasis on data-dependence when it comes to monetary policy decisions, this data dump could trigger dollar volatility – ultimately impacting gold prices.

  • Should the overall US economic data print below market expectations, this may weaken the dollar – pushing gold prices higher.
  • If overall US economic data prints above expectations, the dollar could receive a boost – dragging gold prices lower.

  1. Technical forces 

Despite rebounding from the 200-day SMA, gold prices remain trapped within a range on the daily charts with support at $1915 and resistance at $1931 where the 50-day SMA resides.

Gold could be in the process of a technical rebound or pullback with both technical and fundamental forces determining where prices conclude the week.

  • A solid daily breakout and close above $1931 could signal a move higher with the next key level of interest found at $1953.
  • Should prices slip back under the $1915 support, this may invite bears to attack $1900 and $1885, respectively.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Metals
09 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Copper & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was with Gold (14,734 contracts) and Copper (9,846 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Palladium (-1,045 contracts) with Platinum (-436 contracts), Silver (-329 contracts) and Steel (-320 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-05-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold438,6728138,00638-158,2396320,23331
Silver128,2791726,80456-37,7084810,90427
Copper193,59737-6,770254,659752,11132
Palladium17,64480-11,021010,88810013350
Platinum68,7215314,60249-19,001544,39927

 

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (61 percent) and Silver (56 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Copper (25 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (37.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (31.3 percent)
Silver (56.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (57.0 percent)
Copper (25.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (16.5 percent)
Platinum (49.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (50.3 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.1 percent)
Steel (61.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (62.2 percent)

Platinum & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (-2 percent) and Copper (-7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals with the least negative scores.

Palladium (-18 percent), Gold (-16 percent) and Silver (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-15.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (-30.8 percent)
Silver (-14.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (-23.9 percent)
Copper (-6.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-11.3 percent)
Platinum (-2.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-1.6 percent)
Palladium (-17.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-11.0 percent)
Steel (-8.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-11.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 138,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,734 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,272 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.825.410.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.361.55.9
– Net Position:138,006-158,23920,233
– Gross Longs:235,802111,45645,966
– Gross Shorts:97,796269,69525,733
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.4 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.862.930.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.715.4-10.9

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.931.218.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.060.610.1
– Net Position:26,804-37,70810,904
– Gross Longs:57,55840,05223,814
– Gross Shorts:30,75477,76012,910
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.5 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.548.226.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.414.5-10.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.740.77.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.238.36.6
– Net Position:-6,7704,6592,111
– Gross Longs:67,11878,86714,880
– Gross Shorts:73,88874,20812,769
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.075.531.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.97.1-4.0

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 14,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,038 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.825.011.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.652.74.8
– Net Position:14,602-19,0014,399
– Gross Longs:36,99117,2127,704
– Gross Shorts:22,38936,2133,305
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.5 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.354.227.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.03.0-7.4

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -11,021 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,045 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.764.09.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:85.22.39.1
– Net Position:-11,02110,888133
– Gross Longs:4,00811,2961,746
– Gross Shorts:15,0294081,613
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 127.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.049.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.913.039.4

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,442 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -320 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.587.63.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.665.71.9
– Net Position:-4,4424,220222
– Gross Longs:1,05816,848587
– Gross Shorts:5,50012,628365
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.3 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.238.350.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.07.617.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
28 Aug

Trade Of The Week: Gold Primed For Another Breakout?

By ForexTime 

Gold prices have kicked off the new week still nursing deep wounds inflicted from last Friday’s painful selloff.

The precious metal’s appeal took a hit following hawkish remarks delivered by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole. With his comments leaving the doors open for further rate increases, gold found itself capped around $1920 as the dollar rose along with Treasury yields.

Gold is down roughly 2.5% month-to-date. Despite this, bulls and bears remain engaged in a fierce tug of war with prices almost unchanged since the start of Q3. Taking a quick look at the technical picture, the precious metal could experience a rebound or dead cat bounce with key resistance at $1920 and support at $1885.

A major breakout could be on the horizon and here are 4 reasons why:

1) US Data dump 

With the Federal Reserve’s recent shift to data dependency, every release of US economic data is of paramount importance. These data points will play a critical role in determining whether the Fed will raise rates one last time in 2023.

As a result, close attention will be paid to upcoming releases such as US August consumer confidence, US Q2 GDP (2nd estimate), and US weekly initial jobless claims to gauge the health of the US economy.

  • Gold prices may appreciate on a weaker dollar if the overall data disappoints and caps expectations around the Fed keeping rates higher for longer.
  • Gold could depreciate on a stronger dollar should the overall US economic data exceed market forecasts and fuel bets around higher US interest rates.

2) US July PCE report

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure will be closely scrutinized by investors, especially after the central bank stressed that incoming data would influence monetary policy decisions.

Markets expect the July PCE report to show headline prices remained steady at 0.2% month-over-month with the core PCE deflator also forecast to remain unchanged at 0.2% MoM. The core personal consumption expenditures price index for projected to rise 4.2% year-over-year in April, up from the 4.1% seen in June.

Ultimately, further signs of easing inflationary pressures may support gold prices as rate hike bets cool. Traders are currently pricing in a 22% probability of a 25 basis point hike in September with this jumping to 67% by November, according to Fed funds futures.

3) US August NFP report

Fasten your seatbelts because the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday has the potential to rock gold prices.

Markets expect the US economy to have added 168,000 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate is seen remaining unchanged at 3.5%. Given how markets remain sensitive to anything relating to the US economy and rate hike expectations, this jobs report could trigger volatility across the board.

  • Gold prices may appreciate if the August NFP report prints below the 168k market forecast, complemented by a higher unemployment rate. This combo may fuel speculation around the Fed being done with rate hikes, offering an opportunity for gold bulls to charge.
  • Gold prices may depreciate if the August NFP reports exceed markets expectations with the unemployment rate moving lower. This scenario could strengthen the argument around the Fed raising interest rates one more time this year.

4) Technical forces 

Despite pushing back above the 200-day SMA, gold bears still maintain some control on the daily charts.

Prices are trading below the 50 and 100-day SMA while the MACD trades to the downside. Bear may return to the scene if prices sink back below the 200-day SMA with $1885 acting as the first key level of interest. Weakness below this level may open a path towards $1870. Should prices experience a breakout above $1920, bulls could target $1935 and $1957 where the 100-day SMA resides.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Metals Opinions
19 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Palladium with a weekly rise of 769 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-21,849 contracts) with Copper (-15,641 contracts), Silver (-5,463 contracts), Platinum (-2,991 contracts) and Steel (-403 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-15-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold433,6115121,13630-141,9306920,79432
Silver138,215307,86129-23,2646615,40352
Copper224,21562-25,698920,665895,03350
Palladium20,511100-9,42369,72296-29924
Platinum84,557100116-5,866815,86547

 

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (63 percent) and Gold (30 percent) lead the metals markets this week.  comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (6 percent), Copper (9 percent) and Platinum (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (30.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (40.0 percent)
Silver (29.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (37.3 percent)
Copper (8.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.2 percent)
Platinum (15.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (22.5 percent)
Palladium (5.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (63.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (64.1 percent)

 

Platinum & Gold top the negative 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the metals markets have lower six-week trends scores.

Platinum (-19 percent), Gold (-18 percent, Copper (-15 percent) and Silver (-15 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-18.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-3.9 percent)
Silver (-14.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-8.2 percent)
Copper (-14.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-11.2 percent)
Platinum (-18.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-21.2 percent)
Palladium (-11.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-20.6 percent)
Steel (-9.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (-5.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 121,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -21,849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 142,985 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.826.810.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.859.55.4
– Net Position:121,136-141,93020,794
– Gross Longs:233,078116,06244,337
– Gross Shorts:111,942257,99223,543
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.4 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.469.232.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.516.5-2.1

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.734.220.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.051.09.1
– Net Position:7,861-23,26415,403
– Gross Longs:50,69247,24028,028
– Gross Shorts:42,83170,50412,625
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.7 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.565.752.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.57.621.4

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,057 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.145.48.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.536.25.9
– Net Position:-25,69820,6655,033
– Gross Longs:67,401101,82718,180
– Gross Shorts:93,09981,16213,147
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.688.750.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.611.618.2

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,992 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.328.511.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.335.44.6
– Net Position:1-5,8665,865
– Gross Longs:44,23324,0759,751
– Gross Shorts:44,23229,9413,886
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.8 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.681.446.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.615.94.8

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -9,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.758.57.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:65.711.18.7
– Net Position:-9,4239,722-299
– Gross Longs:4,04812,0061,482
– Gross Shorts:13,4712,2841,781
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 15.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.596.123.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.09.210.2

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,524 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.387.41.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.870.71.4
– Net Position:-3,5243,558-34
– Gross Longs:1,54718,597274
– Gross Shorts:5,07115,039308
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.2 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.037.415.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.810.5-24.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Metals Opinions
18 Aug
metals

All Eyes Are on Lithium

Source: Barry Dawes  (8/15/23)

Barry Dawes of Martin Place Securities takes a look at current movements in the gold and lithium market. 

Diggers and Dealers 2023

  • Attendance down in 2022 but still an important showcase
  • Big improvements coming for the gold sector market leaders
  • Excellent progress by many juniors

Gold

  • Still heading to US$2000 and beyond
  • Seasonal influences strong
  • Building quietly
  • May be more short-term softness but technicals positive
  • Conviction elusive

US$ Still Strong

  • U.S. is very attractive investment destination!
  • Downtrend broken!
  • Yen makes new 2023 low
  • Swiss Franc about to crack

Bond Market

  • U.S, bond yields peaking
  • But Japan, Germany, and UK yields to rise
  • Is this being too complicating?

Japanese bonds have had a disaster!

A 60% increase in yield on a long-dated bond to 0.58% would have cut the price by >50%!

Yields to 0.8% and then 1.2% would be catastrophic. Junk status for these and the Yen.

UK

Yields are likely to break higher.

It could be a big move, but the uptrend is broken.

Eurozone

Yields definitely rise here.

Yield rises on long-dated low-coupon bonds are devastating.

Gold

Gold has given us another month of misery after what we thought was going to be a seasonal low around the end of June.

The US$ is strengthening again as the world embraces the ending of the period of control by the criminal mafia in the U.S. The U.S. will become the recipient of massive investment capital inflows as these criminals are removed, and the rule of constitutional law is regained.

The electoral fraud that we’ve talked about over the last few years is now coming to the fore in a crescendo. If you haven’t watched this interview with Dr. Jan Halper-Hayes, you should do so now.

Some interesting background:

She was on the Trump Transition Team in 2016/17 and sits on a U.S. Dept Defence panel, so she has standing.

Note at 10:02, Dr. Halper talks about the repatriation of a large amount of gold stolen from the U.S. Treasury and held by the Vatican.

650 plane loads were involved.

This is the first formal announcement of this action I have seen and follows several hints over the past few years.

The tonnages are large (> several thousand tonnes!), so the US$ may be, in fact, already gold backed.

You will recall videos of Trump looking very happy and the Pope looking very angry during a visit to the Vatican in 2017.

Video

The world is recognizing this, and funds are flowing into the US$.

The world is also seeing the junk status of other currencies like the Yen and the Euro, and even the Swiss franc, and is leaving.

Note the weakness in the bond markets in these countries.

However, it seems the commentators are thinking about just the opposite.

Heed the markets!

The gold-backed BRICs issue will be reviewed later this week.

What can we say about gold now?

It is friendless, and the sentiment is awful.

Gold company booths at Diggers were almost ignored last week.

So here is gold’s action over the past month.

Heading lower, but it’s wedging!

This wedge is playing out here and looks constructive with horizontal support.

This is an interesting uptrend here with some good horizontal support.

And the parabola for US$ gold is still there.

Gold in Yen is still rising.

Gold in Euros is holding there too.

Gold Stocks

  • Leading gold stocks building steadily
  • Horizontal support is good
  • Uptrends are wonky but still OK

Still hanging in there.

But sentiment has collapsed again.

ASX Gold Stocks

Last week I managed to catch up with about 40 ASX gold companies at Diggers.

The big stocks are looking very strong.

I also, courtesy of NST (thank you, Stu, Bec, and Sophie), visited the KCGM Super Pit and was astounded by the progress and the direction of this operation.

No wonder NST was so keen to get control of this operation.

I will do some work on this later in the week, but clearly, NST is heading for something brilliant here. It will be >1mozpa, above their conservative 900koz pa, from this expansion from 13mtpa to 27mt, which is underpinned by the existing 120mt of 0.7g/t low-grade stockpiles by 2029. A$1.5bn being well spent!

Jundee and Pogo are also doing very well.

EVN has now turned the corner and is looking much better at Red Lake, and Mungari is now being expanded.

RRL, GOR, RMS, PNR, WGX also are strong.

GMD looks as though it will now start really growing.

DEG just gets better every quarter.

BGL is just out of this world!

ASX Gold Index

  • Pulled back to horizontal support
  • Completing RHS
  • Small-cap developers bottoming
  • Small-caps developers about to outperform XGD

ASX gold stocks rallied nicely in June but have pulled back to important horizontal support around 6600.

The index is still doing work after testing that 7700 neckline.

Still looking quite constructive despite being still about 30% below the 2020 high.

The index broke a downtrend line this morning and is just backtesting.

There is a wedge here as well.

The underlying corporate fundamentals are very strong and are turning up after a pause.

We can’t have a bear market if output and earnings are rising.

The small gold developers, however, were almost ignored at Diggers last week.

Lithium and rare earths were the flavor of the month.

But do watch this mega wedge going back to 2020.

These small-cap developers are ready to break out.

And they are beginning to break out vs. the Gold Index.

Stocks to watch:-

  • AAR
  • AUC
  • AUT
  • BC8
  • GBR
  • OBM
  • GCY
  • AME
  • KZR
  • SGN
  • RXL

More is coming later this week.

Timing is everything.

Heed the markets, not the commentators.

 

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Metals Opinions
12 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets drop this week led by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets drop this week led by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as all of the six markets we follow had lower speculator contracts.

The markets leading the declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-21,939 contracts) with Copper (-20,801 contracts), Silver (-17,507 contracts), Platinum (-9,298 contracts), Steel (-1,065 contracts) with Palladium (-895 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-08-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold427,7593142,98540-167,5545924,56942
Silver137,6312913,32437-30,3495717,02561
Copper228,53765-10,057224,908765,14951
Palladium20,470100-10,192010,299100-10735
Platinum79,9891002,99222-8,591765,59943

 

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (64 percent) and Gold (40 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (37 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (40.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (49.7 percent)
Silver (37.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (62.2 percent)
Copper (22.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (40.1 percent)
Platinum (22.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (43.9 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (6.4 percent)
Steel (64.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (67.2 percent)

 

Gold & Steel are the least negative in the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (-4 percent) and Steel (-5 percent) topped the past six weeks trends for metals but were in negative trends.

Platinum (-21 percent) and Palladium (-21 percent) lead and show the most negative trends currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-3.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (0.9 percent)
Silver (-8.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (15.4 percent)
Copper (-11.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (7.7 percent)
Platinum (-21.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-16.6 percent)
Palladium (-20.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-19.1 percent)
Steel (-5.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-0.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 142,985 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -21,939 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 164,924 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.526.610.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.165.84.8
– Net Position:142,985-167,55424,569
– Gross Longs:228,846113,89044,996
– Gross Shorts:85,861281,44420,427
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.4 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.059.341.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.93.02.9

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.130.319.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.452.37.5
– Net Position:13,324-30,34917,025
– Gross Longs:53,78141,63627,349
– Gross Shorts:40,45771,98510,324
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.6 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.357.161.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.2-1.237.8

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,801 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,744 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.242.37.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.640.25.6
– Net Position:-10,0574,9085,149
– Gross Longs:71,24796,72817,983
– Gross Shorts:81,30491,82012,834
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.275.751.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.29.410.4

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 2,992 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,290 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.527.412.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.838.15.0
– Net Position:2,992-8,5915,599
– Gross Longs:42,00721,8999,574
– Gross Shorts:39,01530,4903,975
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.7 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.575.743.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.220.8-11.5

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,192 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -895 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,297 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.560.28.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:70.39.88.6
– Net Position:-10,19210,299-107
– Gross Longs:4,19812,3131,659
– Gross Shorts:14,3902,0141,766
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 16.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.035.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.616.724.0

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -3,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.586.21.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.571.40.9
– Net Position:-3,1213,07447
– Gross Longs:1,78017,968227
– Gross Shorts:4,90114,894180
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.136.026.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.35.4-1.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Metals Opinions
04 Aug

Week Ahead: US CPI Data To Shape Gold Outlook

By ForexTime 

As the countdown draws closer to the key US jobs report later today (Friday, August 4), investors may already be keeping a close eye on what’s to come in the week ahead.

All eyes will be on the incoming US inflation data, speeches from some Fed officials as well as earnings announcements that could spark volatility across the board.

Monday, August 7

  • CNH: China forex reserves
  • EUR: Germany industrial production
  • USD: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speech

Tuesday, August 8

  • AUD: Australia Westpac consumer confidence, NAB business confidence
  • CNH: China trade
  • EUR: Germany CPI
  • USD: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speech, US trade

Wednesday, August 9

  • CNH: China CPI, PPI, money supply, new yuan loans
  • SPX500_m: Walt Disney earnings

Thursday, August 10

  • JPY: Japan PPI
  • USD: July CPI, initial jobless claims, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Friday, August 11

  • GBP: UK industrial production, GDP
  • USD: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, PPI

The July US Consumer price index (CPI) report published on Thursday, August 10 will most likely act as a key piece of information that determines whether the Fed raises rates one final time in 2023 or not.

When factoring in the Federal Reserve’s shift to data dependence, markets are likely to show increased sensitivity to US economic releases moving forward, including the pending NFP release this afternoon.

Market expectations for US July CPI:

  • CPI year-on-year (July 2023 vs. July 2022) to rise 3.3% from 3.0% in the prior month.
  • Core CPI year-on-year to remain unchanged at 4.8% from 4.8% seen in June.
  • CPI month-on-month (July 2023 vs June 2023) to remain unchanged at 0.2% from 0.2% in the prior month.
  • Core CPI month-on-month to remain unchanged at 0.2% from 0.2% seen in June.

There has certainly been proof of inflationary pressures cooling the US economy with annual inflation slowing to 3% back in June – the lowest since March 2021. Despite CPI forecasted to rise in July, the core inflation print is expected to remain unchanged which could support optimism around the Fed being one step closer to taming the inflation beast. Should July’s CPI report print cooler than expected, this could support the argument around the Fed being finished with rate hikes this year.

How might the US CPI data impact gold?

Gold prices could see heightened volatility due to the incoming US inflation report.

After gaining 2.4% in June, the precious metal has already kicked off the new month on a negative note, shedding 1.6% month-to-date (as of writing). The pending US NFP report in a few hours will most likely impact the precious metal’s outlook ahead of the US inflation print. Given gold’s zero-yielding nature and an inverse relationship with the dollar, it may be set for a wild ride in the week ahead.

  • Gold prices could shine if the inflation numbers print below market forecast, as signs of slowing inflation strengthen the argument around the Fed being done with hikes in 2023.
  • Should the inflation figures exceed market forecasts, gold prices are likely to tumble as speculation rises around the Fed hiking rates one more time this year.

 Technical outlook: Bears in control?

Gold prices are under pressure on the daily charts with prices trading below the 50 and 100, day SMA. The recent breakdown below the $1940 support could signal further downside towards $1900 and $1871, respectively. Should prices push back above $1955, this could open a path towards $1985 and $2000.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Metals Opinions
30 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was just Copper with a weekly rise of 4,709 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-19,709 contracts), Silver (-6,937 contracts), Steel (-1,356 contracts), Platinum (-249 contracts) and Palladium (-27 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-25-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold476,17625173,63953-198,2104724,57142
Silver146,8983636,92571-49,7183412,79337
Copper234,713701,15932-3,904682,74536
Palladium16,760100-8,37708,899100-52210
Platinum64,1974815,48751-20,441514,95434

 

Strength Scores led by Silver & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (71 percent) and Steel (68 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (53.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (62.2 percent)
Silver (70.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (80.8 percent)
Copper (31.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (27.8 percent)
Platinum (51.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.9 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.2 percent)
Steel (68.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (72.1 percent)

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (19 percent) and Copper (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-10 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (5.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (7.8 percent)
Silver (18.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (31.9 percent)
Copper (12.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.4 percent)
Platinum (-15.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-20.5 percent)
Palladium (-10.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-14.4 percent)
Steel (0.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (6.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 173,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 193,348 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.126.49.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.768.04.8
– Net Position:173,639-198,21024,571
– Gross Longs:248,229125,49147,300
– Gross Shorts:74,590323,70122,729
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.547.441.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.9-4.7-3.2

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 36,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,937 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.526.716.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.460.58.0
– Net Position:36,925-49,71812,793
– Gross Longs:72,78639,19724,478
– Gross Shorts:35,86188,91511,685
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.933.737.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.8-13.6-10.9

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,159 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,550 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.440.56.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.942.25.7
– Net Position:1,159-3,9042,745
– Gross Longs:73,74395,14016,173
– Gross Shorts:72,58499,04413,428
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.868.435.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.2-13.715.8

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 15,487 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.825.712.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.757.64.3
– Net Position:15,487-20,4414,954
– Gross Longs:36,48916,5067,742
– Gross Shorts:21,00236,9472,788
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.4 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.351.234.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.014.2-4.8

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -8,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -27 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.461.78.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:72.48.611.6
– Net Position:-8,3778,899-522
– Gross Longs:3,75210,3461,417
– Gross Shorts:12,1291,4471,939
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 17.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.010.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.29.3-0.4

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -370 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.379.21.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.372.50.8
– Net Position:-1,7261,64185
– Gross Longs:3,24219,348276
– Gross Shorts:4,96817,707191
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.231.831.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.9-0.91.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Metals Opinions
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