Archive for Metals – Page 18

COT Metals: Gold and Silver Speculator positions continue to move higher

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (13,586 contracts) with Silver (7,922 contracts), Platinum (5,049 contracts), Palladium (118 contracts) and Steel (1,117 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with declines in speculator bets for the week was Copper (-1,409 contracts).

Gold and Silver Speculator positions continue to move higher

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued rise in bets for the Gold and Silver speculative positions.

The large speculator position in Gold futures rose this week for a fourth straight week and for the sixth time out of the past seven weeks. Gold speculator bets have now jumped by a total of +96,742 contracts over just the past four weeks going from a total net position of +98,474
contracts on March 7th to a total of +195,216 contracts this week.

Meanwhile, the Silver speculator positions have also risen for four straight weeks and have gained by a total of +29,065 contracts over that four-week period. These gains have taken the Silver position out of an overall bearish level of -7,782 contracts on March 7th to a total of +21,283 contracts this week (the most bullish level since January 31st).

The Gold and Silver futures prices have also been on the rise as well. The Gold futures front month price closed this week at approximately the $2,026 level which is the highest weekly close since August 3rd of 2020. Gold is now up over 25 percent since October.

Silver futures prices have gained for four straight weeks and closed this week above $25, the highest level since April of 2022. Silver prices are up by over 40 percent from the most recent cycle low in late-August of 2022.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Apr-04-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold476,59225195,21663-218,2504023,03438
Silver131,2101621,28349-31,4355610,15223
Copper218,68757-2,95426-4,897697,85168
Palladium11,82082-6,64647,01197-36520
Platinum59,1563815,42351-19,201543,77819

 


Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (63 percent) and Steel (61 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (4 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (63.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (57.0 percent)
Silver (48.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (37.3 percent)
Copper (25.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (27.0 percent)
Platinum (51.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (39.5 percent)
Palladium (4.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (3.1 percent)
Steel (61.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (57.9 percent)

 

Gold & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (39 percent) and Platinum (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (38.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (33.5 percent)
Silver (16.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.6 percent)
Copper (-4.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (3.5 percent)
Platinum (28.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (10.1 percent)
Palladium (-13.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-16.4 percent)
Steel (0.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-3.8 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 195,216 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 181,630 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.824.510.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.970.35.4
– Net Position:195,216-218,25023,034
– Gross Longs:266,164116,86948,740
– Gross Shorts:70,948335,11925,706
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.3 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.039.737.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:38.8-34.42.0

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 21,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,922 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,361 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.434.218.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.158.210.7
– Net Position:21,283-31,43510,152
– Gross Longs:50,32744,93624,209
– Gross Shorts:29,04476,37114,057
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.655.822.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.2-10.2-16.8

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,545 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.742.78.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.045.05.3
– Net Position:-2,954-4,8977,851
– Gross Longs:60,53893,46519,483
– Gross Shorts:63,49298,36211,632
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.869.368.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.53.18.8

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 15,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,049 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,374 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.435.011.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.467.55.2
– Net Position:15,423-19,2013,778
– Gross Longs:29,84120,7086,873
– Gross Shorts:14,41839,9093,095
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.5 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.253.818.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:28.9-22.3-22.8

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -6,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.171.510.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:69.312.213.9
– Net Position:-6,6467,011-365
– Gross Longs:1,5518,4501,279
– Gross Shorts:8,1971,4391,644
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 15.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.296.619.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.512.3-0.1

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,138 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.575.31.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.261.30.5
– Net Position:-4,1383,958180
– Gross Longs:3,53221,243334
– Gross Shorts:7,67017,285154
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.238.542.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.20.2-18.1

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Powerful Breakout This Month Bodes Well for Entire Sector

Source: Clive Maund  (3/31/23)

Technical analyst Clive Maund reviews Osisko Gold Royalties’ long-term and 1-year charts to explain why he believes this company is a Buy.

My attention was drawn to Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. (OR:TSX; OR:NYSE) by a number of bullish articles on it, in particular one by Adrian Day that was posted a few days before its major high-volume breakout on the 17th.

It has risen significantly this month and while we are not normally minded to chase after stocks that have already taken off higher, I consider it worth bringing it to your attention here because of the strong bullish implications of this breakout which is believed to mark the start of a major bull market in Osisko for reasons that will soon become apparent which has important implications for the sector as a whole, it being a gold royalty company.

It very quickly becomes clear why the breakout in Osisko this month was so significant when we look at its long-term chart going back to 2014, for here we see that it has finally broken out above the strong resistance at a line of tops that goes back to 2015, on its eighth attempt to do so, so clearly this was an important technical development that in all probability marks the start of a major bull market.

Source: Bigcharts.com

On its 1-year chart, we can see recent action in much more detail. The most important point to note is the very high volume on the breakout this month on the 17th. This high volume is a sign that the breakout is genuine.

Everything about this chart is bullish — the trend is up with moving averages in bullish alignment, momentum positive, and the strong upside volume this month driving the On-balance Volume line higher in a robust manner.

However, there is no arguing the fact that after its strong rise this month which has opened up a considerable gap with its moving averages, it is short-term overbought, but that said this breakout was so significant that it has created support in the CA$18 – CA$19 zone (the former resistance level) which should now serve to put a floor under the price on any reaction.

Source: Bigcharts.com

The main point is that the breakout this month was of such importance that it is thought to mark the start of a major bullmarket in Osisko that will eventually result in much higher prices, and this should hardly be surprising considering the way that the financial system is “flying apart” in a manner that can be expected to result in vastly higher prices for gold and silver which most investors at this time would probably consider to be in the realms of fantasy, even many of you reading this.

The conclusion is that Osisko Gold Royalties has just made a major breakout that promises much higher prices in the future for it and not just that, but much higher prices ahead for gold and silver themselves. It is rated a strong conservative buy on all minor dips.

Osisko Gold Royalties’ website.

Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. closed for trading at CA$21.10, $15.58 at 2.45 pm EDT on March 30, 2023.

 

CliveMaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

Disclosures:
1) Clive Maund: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of the following companies mentioned in this article: None. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with: None. Please click here for more information.

3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.

4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

Gold Speculator’s bullish bets continued to climb to 44-week high

By InvestMacro

The Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has released the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data, which provides an update view of how large traders, such as speculators and commercial entities, position themselves in the futures markets. This data is current as of Tuesday March 28th.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (23,025 contracts) with Copper (10,806 contracts), Silver (9,899 contracts), Platinum (848 contracts) and Palladium (254 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only market with declines in speculator bets for the week was Steel (-484 contracts).

Gold Speculator bets continue to climb to 44-week high

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued bullishness for the Gold speculative positions. The large speculator position in Gold futures climbed this week for a third straight week and for the fifth time out of the past six weeks. Gold spec bets have now advanced by a total of +83,156 contracts over just the past three weeks.

The Gold position has increased from a total net position of +105,529 contracts on February 14th to a total of +181,630 contracts this week which marks the highest level in 44-weeks, dating back to May of 2022. The boost in speculator sentiment has pushed the Gold speculator strength score to 57.0 percent (0 to 100 percent over a 3-year range) while the 6-week speculator strength score trend has gained by 33.5 percent.

The Gold futures price saw a small gain this week after a small decline last week. Previously to the past two weeks, Gold futures had risen for three straight weeks and hit the highest price in just about a year over the $2,014.00 level. This week Gold futures managed to reach a high back over the $2,000.00 price level but retreated to close at $1,986.20.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Mar-28-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold478,61126181,63057-201,5084619,87830
Silver117,395013,36137-21,875678,51414
Copper211,88952-1,54527-4,924696,46959
Palladium11,51478-6,76437,19398-42916
Platinum57,2443210,37440-14,781634,40727

 


Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (58 percent) and Gold (57 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Platinum (39.5 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (3.1 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (57.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (46.9 percent)
Silver (37.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (23.2 percent)
Copper (27.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (17.4 percent)
Platinum (39.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (37.6 percent)
Palladium (3.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.7 percent)
Steel (57.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (59.3 percent)

Gold & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (34 percent) and Platinum (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-4 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (33.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (13.1 percent)
Silver (2.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.4 percent)
Copper (3.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-13.3 percent)
Platinum (10.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-2.5 percent)
Palladium (-16.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-26.9 percent)
Steel (-3.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.3 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 181,630 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 23,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 158,605 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.227.59.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.369.65.7
– Net Position:181,630-201,50819,878
– Gross Longs:245,135131,78647,388
– Gross Shorts:63,505333,29427,510
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.4 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.046.129.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.5-28.0-9.2

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,899 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,462 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.038.318.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.656.911.5
– Net Position:13,361-21,8758,514
– Gross Longs:42,25444,97022,062
– Gross Shorts:28,89366,84513,548
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.367.413.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.64.8-32.5

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,351 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.744.38.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.446.65.7
– Net Position:-1,545-4,9246,469
– Gross Longs:56,59593,92018,451
– Gross Shorts:58,14098,84411,982
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.069.259.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.5-2.2-8.5

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 10,374 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 848 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,526 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.440.412.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.266.34.9
– Net Position:10,374-14,7814,407
– Gross Longs:24,24723,1467,193
– Gross Shorts:13,87337,9272,786
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.6 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.562.927.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.1-5.2-24.7

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,764 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 254 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,018 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.872.210.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:72.69.713.9
– Net Position:-6,7647,193-429
– Gross Longs:1,5938,3141,174
– Gross Shorts:8,3571,1211,603
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 17.4 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.198.115.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.416.3-9.6

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,771 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.176.11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.559.80.3
– Net Position:-5,2554,933322
– Gross Longs:3,68723,103422
– Gross Shorts:8,94218,170100
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.3 to 14.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.941.461.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.84.1-11.0

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Q2: Chen ‘Excited’ for Silver’s Possibilities

Source: Streetwise Reports  (3/28/23)

The start of Q2 is fast approaching and one thing has not change for asset manager Chen Lin: he’s still bullish on silver and precious metals.

The start of Q2 is fast approaching, and one thing has not changed for asset manager Chen Lin: he’s still bullish on silver and precious metals.

The author of the What is Chen Buying? What is Chen Selling? newsletter told Streetwise Reports that several companies have him “excited” about future possibilities right now.

Silver is great at coating electrical contacts, and it’s an important element in solar technology. Almost all computers, phones, cars, and appliances contain the metal. Because of this growing demand, the Silver Institute predicted global demand for silver would reach a new high of 1.21 billion ounces in 2022, up 16% from the preceding year.

“Physical investment (in silver) in 2022 (was) on track to jump by 18% to 329 (million ounces) Moz, which would also be a new record,” the report said.

Silver prices have gone up US$3 an ounce since March 7; Chen said he thinks it’s just “the beginning.”

While one of the companies Chen recommends will be familiar to his readers, there are some surprises, including a country you might not associate with precious metal mining.

First Majestic Silver Corp.

What has Chen so excited?

First Majestic Silver Corp. (FR:TSX; AG:NYSE; FMV:FSE) recently announced it was suspending all mining activities at its Jerritt Canyon Gold Mine in Nevada.

The company said it had been focused on increasing mining rates there to feed the processing plant at a minimum of 3,000 tonnes per day but has never hit that threshold since buying the project about two years ago.

The news of the suspension sent First Majestic’s stock sinking 24% in one day.

Chen said he knew Jarrett Canyon was an issue for the company and has “been waiting for this day for a long time.”

“It’s a good opportunity,” Chen said. “Today is a happy day, and I will start loading up on First Majestic.”

Retail: 66%
Institutions: 32%
Insiders & Management: 2%
Strategic Investors: 0%
66%
32%
*Share Structure as of 3/27/2023

 

While the mine accounted for 21% of the company’s revenue in 2022, First Majestic still has three other major properties: San Dimas, Santa Elena, and La Encantada in Mexico. It also recorded record annual revenue in 2022 and just renewed a share repurchase program.

“They have free cash flow,” Chen said. “It was just a mistake to buy Jarett Canyon.”

A research note by Jefferson Research on March 24 rated its cash flow “strong.”

First Majestic said it still intends to process about 45,000 tonnes of above-ground stockpiles through the plant at Jerritt Canyon and will continue exploration activities at the site.

“The company will continue exploring both near-mine and prospective regional greenfield targets to grow Jerritt Canyon’s resources, which we believe will significantly enhance the economics for the eventual restart of operations,” First Majestic said.

According to Yahoo Finance, about 2% of First Majestic is held by insiders, and 32% is held by institutions. The rest is retail.

Insider shareholders include President and Chief Executive Officer Keith Neumeyer, who owns 1.56% or 4.1 million shares, Reuters said. Top institutional owners include Van Eck Associates Corp. with 9.99% or 26.27 million shares and the Vanguard Group Inc. with 3% or 7.88 million shares.

It has a market cap of US$1.74 million with 263 million shares outstanding, 256.2 million of them free-floating. It trades in a 52-week range of US$14.59 and US$5.53.

i-80 Gold Corp.

Another precious metal stock Chen likes in the second quarter is i-80 Gold Corp. (IAU:TSX; IAUCF:OTCQX), which is focused on its five projects in northern Nevada: Lone Tree, Ruby Hill, Granite Creek, McCoy-Cove, and Buffalo Mountain. Its stated goal is to achieve mid-tier gold producer status.

The stock moved as high as CA$3.52 in February but sank to CA$2.97 on March 7 when news broke that major shareholder Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX:TSX; EQX:NYSE.A) was selling CA$32 million in shares in a private placement. Equinox’s ownership went from about 25% to about 20%.

However, the company has recently made discoveries at its Ruby Hill project and graduated to producer status at Granite Creek.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

i-80 Gold Corp. (IAU:TSX; IAUCF:OTCQX)

Institutions: 49%
Retail: 28%
Insiders & Management: 23%
Strategic Investors: 0%
49%
28%
23%
*Share Structure as of 3/27/2023

 

“It makes a very good opportunity now,” Chen said. “And they continue making the discoveries of very high-grade gold, silver, and base metals in the middle of Nevada. I like the price.”

The stock had risen to CA$3.11 per share by Monday morning.

The company, which started trading on the New York Stock Exchange last May, said it had gold sales of more than 21,000 ounces in 2022, increased the size of Granite Creek by more than 500 hectares, and completed a total of more than 240,000 feet of drilling.

The National Bank of Canada was neutral on i-80 Gold’s fourth-quarter 2022 results released recently, saying there were “no surprises.” It gave the company an outperform rating with a CA$5.50 target.

About 23% of the company is held by insiders, and about 49% is held by institutions, according to Yahoo Finance. The rest is retail.

The top insider shareholder is Chief Executive Officer and Director Ewan Downie, with 2.24% or 5.53 million shares, Reuters said. Top institutional shareholders include Equinox with 19.98% or 49.24 million shares, Sprott Asset Management LP with 8.45% or 20.81 million shares, and Orion Resources Partners (USA) LP with 8.24% or 20.3 million shares.

It has a market cap of US$548 million with 246.4 million shares outstanding, 169.69 million of them free-floating. It trades in a 52-week range of US$3.18 and US$1.52.

Cerro de Pasco Resources Inc.

Chen also has high hopes for Cerro de Pasco Resources Inc. (CNSX:CDPR; OTCMKTS:GPPRF), focused on the development of the El Metalurgista mining concession in Peru.

It recently announced that it had signed a memorandum of understanding with Volcan Compania Minera to collaborate in the first phase of exploring the Quiulacocha Tailings Project at the site.

Glencore International Plc (GLNCY:OTCMKTS) is providing a US$2 million loan to cover the costs of the first phase of the project, including geophysical studies, sonic drilling, laboratory testing, mineralogy studies, resource estimation, and economic assessment.

Retail: 59%
Insiders & Management: 23%
Institutions: 18%
Strategic Investors: 0%
59%
23%
18%
*Share Structure as of 3/27/2023

 

Volcan will allow Cerro de Pasco rights to process materials through its processing plants.

The Glencore loan is unusual, Chen said. The Peruvian government is also collaborating by giving the company a special designation.

“Glencore is really interested in their deposits,” Chen said. “We should have some very exciting results coming out in the fall.”

The stock was at CA$0.105 on Monday afternoon.

“Right now is the best time to buy the stock in the past five years,” Chen said. “Once people wake up, I expect the stock will have a huge performance.”

About 23% of the company is owned by insiders, according to Yahoo Finance, and 18% is held by institutions. The rest is retail.

According to Reuters, top institutional holders include LH Financial Services Corp., with 18.37% or 52.89 million shares, and Gordaldo Ltd. With 10.82% or 31.15 million shares. Executive Chairman Steven Zadka leads insiders with 8.72% or 25.1 million shares.

Cerro de Pasco has a market cap of CA$30.2 million with 287.9 million shares outstanding, 222.88 million of them free-floating. It trades in a 52-week range of CA$0.28 and CA$0.07.

Irving Resources Inc.

Another company that has Chen’s attention is Irving Resources Inc. (IRV:CSE; IRVRF:OTCQX), a Canadian explorer going after gold and silver in Japan.

The country is known for some of the highest-grade gold mines in the world, and there are dozens of past-producing epithermal mines, Irving Resources said. But Japan shut down most of its gold production to focus on base metals during World War II, and little exploration has occurred since then.

Few mines there have seen modern-day exploration techniques like drilling, the company said.

Chen said he plans to visit the mines there with renowned geologist Quinton Hennigh, who is a director and technical advisor for the company, next month.

“It should be a very exciting story,” he said.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Irving Resources Inc. (IRV:CSE; IRVRF:OTCQX)

Retail: 65%
Strategic Investors: 24%
Insiders & Management: 10%
Institutions: 1%
65%
24%
10%
*Share Structure as of 3/27/2023

 

Earlier this month, Irving announced it had discovered a new high-grade vein system in a newly drilled hole near the historic Hokuryu mine at its flagship Omui project in Hokkaido.

The company encountered veins extending 33 meters and grading 1.35 grams per tonne gold (g/t Au) and 15.45 g/t silver (Ag).

Irving Resources said it has started an aggressive exploration program for this year, testing multiple new drill targets and vein extensions at Omui.

Newmont Corp. (NEM:NYSE) owns 18.34% of the company, Irving said, while Japan Gold Corp. (JG:TSX.V) is partnering with Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX; GOLD:NYSE).

“So, the largest mining companies are very interested in Japan,” Chen said.

The company said management and directors own about 10%, and strategic investors Newmont and Sumitomo Corp. (8053:TKY; SSUMF:OTCPK) own 18% and 6%, respectively. Yahoo Finance said about 1% is owned institutions. The rest is retail.

According to Reuters, top insiders include President and Chief Executive Officer Akiko Levinson with 4.78% or 3.46 million shares and Hennigh with 3.14% or 2.27 million shares.

Irving Resources has a market cap of CA$85.5 million with 72.4 million shares outstanding, 41 million of them free-floating. It trades in a 52-week range of CA$1.84 and CA$0.63.

First Tellurium Corp.

Finally, Chen recommended a company he’s picked beforeFirst Tellurium Corp. (FTEL:CSE).

Tellurium is another element important to the new green economy, as it is critical to solar panels and lithium batteries. It has also been used to vulcanize rubber, tint glass, and manufacture rewritable CDs and DVDs.

First Tellurium’s Deer Horn property in British Columbia is known to have the only positive Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for a tellurium project (Te) in North America. It’s named by First Solar as one of only four world-class Te projects.

“There’s a very decent chance tellurium will breakout this year, because First Solar is using 60 to 70% of worldwide production to make a solar panel,” Chen said. “Their production has grown rapidly.”

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

First Tellurium Corp. (FTEL:CSE)

Retail: 89%
Management/Insiders: 11%
Institutions: 0%
Strategic Investors: 0%
89%
11%
*Share Structure as of 3/27/2023

 

Recent International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts show that solar photovoltaic (solar PV) technology will generate more power by 2027 than any other source.

Deer Horn also has a large silver resource, the company said. Silver is another important element in solar panels.

“We have a very attractive mix of precious and green metals, including copper porphyry mineralization, in a time of strong metals markets,” First Tellurium President and Chief Executive Officer Tyron Docherty said.

According to the company, 11% of First Tellurium is owned by management and insiders. Docherty owns 10.50% or 7.63 million shares, Director Josef Anthony Steve Fogarassy has 1.38% or 1 million shares, and Director Lyle Allen Schwabe has 0.77% or 0.56 million shares. There are no institutional investors, and the rest is retail.

The company has a market cap of CA$11.6 million, with 72.7 million shares outstanding, 63.46 of them free-floating. It trades in a 52-week range of CA$0.255 and CA$0.085.

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Disclosures:
1) Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC. He or members of his household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. He or members of his household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with: First Tellurium Corp. Please click here for more information.

3) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

4) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of First Majestic Silver Corp. and First Tellurium Corp., companies mentioned in this article.

There Never Is ‘Only One Cockroach’

Source: Michael Ballanger  (3/27/23)

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. reviews the current state of the market, where he believes the Fed is heading, and one gold stock he says is a best performer.

It seems like it was only yesterday that the Great Financial Crisis involving an even Greater Financial Bailout was raining massive stock and bond market losses on the investing public, but it was not on anyone’s radar screen until a small, obscure hedge fund run by Bear Stearns traders blew up in spectacular fashion.

That was March 2008, and only after Jamie Dimon wrangled loan guarantees from the Fed and Treasury that JP Morgan bought Bear for the ungodly sum of US$2.00 per share a mere nine months after hitting an all-time high north of US$170.

That event was the first cockroach that anyone had seen in a kitchen that would eventually be teeming with them. With the U.S. real estate market rocketing northward in a greed-fueled orgy of house-flipping, multiple units leveraging, lying, cheating, and outright fraud, then-Fed-Chairman Ben Bernanke swore black and blue that the subprime issue that brought down Bear Stearns was “contained.”

 I learned decades ago at the Wharton School that when the Fed is openly hostile to stocks with restrictive monetary policy, keep your money in your pocket.

The second little critter that slithered its way into sight was the Lehman Brothers implosion six months later in September 2008, when Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, along with all of the member banks of the Federal Reserve, decided to make a martyr out of them, forcing Lehman into bankruptcy and nearly sending the entire financial system into liquidity purgatory.

With Lehman, it was as if someone flipped in the kitchen fluorescent at 3 a.m. because, as Mr. Buffett says, “they all started scurrying around” as it suddenly and shockingly became known that those cockroaches that had been feasting on the spoils of compromised rating agencies and an overly-easy monetary regime were none other than all of the major banks and brokers on Wall Street.

As history unfolded and revelations came to the surface about what really happened, every one of those cockroaches was doomed without a Fed/Treasury department lifeline — bailout — and that is exactly what they got. The problem remained that the issue of moral hazard was severely breached, and for the last fourteen years, the bugs are still feeding on the spilled flour and overturned rice bowls upon which they fed voraciously into the wee hours of the night, which abruptly ended in early 2022.

A couple of months ago, the big crypto bank servicer, FTX, was gutted by a combination of stupidity and greed but had the tight money policies of the U.S. Fed been allowed to prolong the speculative mania, the fraud might have been extended for quite awhile longer. Then two weeks ago, we read of the bank run, and subsequent failure of the eighteenth-largest bank in the U.S., Silicon Valley Bank, along with Signature bank, were taken over by the FDIC in order to protect depositors who were caught in the marked-to-market debacle inflicted upon these regional banks by a Fed that basically ensured investor that inflation (and rising interest rates) were “transitory.”

He Who Loses the Least Wins

Right on the heels of that fiasco arrives the even-greater plight of Swiss investment banking giant Credit Suisse, and after the powers that be conspire to throw them under a bus with a forced US$3.25 billion buyout by UBS, they now have to deal with another extremely delicate situation with news that Germany’s Deutsche Bank is also now having liquidity issues.

The issues affecting the global banking fraternity are not going to disappear overnight because we have experienced over 14 years of a complete and total disregard for the policies needed to provide a sound money environment for workers and savers.

Protecting U.S. dollar hegemony and suppressing the ability of the free market to accurately identify the proper price for goods and services has taken precedence over natural price discovery which was one of the most important attributes of pre-Bretton Woods where spendthrift countries lost their gold and invited regime change through the proper function of the voting booth.

In 2023, those concepts have gone foreign because in a Constitutional republic like the U.S.A., money, not integrity, controls votes, and once in power, even the most honest of politicians are corrupted by the narcotic allure of political power.

Hence, the issuance of trillions upon trillions of bonds with negative coupons were flogged largely into Europe but irreverently into pension and insurance funds with the wink and nudge from the central bank charlatans that borrowing costs would remain “lower for longer,” thus implying little need for hedging the direction of interest rates.

Now that we have an unknown number of banks that are sitting with large portfolios of high-quality bonds bought at prices that reflect a zero rate versus a 4.5% rate, the evil sorcerer called “duration” has cast an ominous spell on those banks that thought the Fed would “have their backs” rather than twisting a very sharp stiletto into them.

As an investor, I am forced to assume that since the kitchen lights are low that the crunching, munching sound from the pantry is not just the one cockroach that I boot-stomped this morning but rather a legion of insectine brothers, sisters, nieces, and nephews all awaiting the harshness of light before scurrying into the cubbies, nooks, and crannies of the kitchen.

Bottom line: this is a very tough market to trade, but those that have simply kept their feet in the stirrups since mid-October has been the real winners.

Just as subprime was never “contained” to just a couple of wild-eyed hedge fund jockeys at Bear Steans in the Spring of 2008, the current problem with depositors leaving the impaired regional banks in favor of the chosen safety of the bigger, too-big-to-fail, member banks is a problem that will be around for a long time.

It is not “different” this time because the only thing keeping your money in any specific financial institution is trust.

It is said of a certain breed of woman in Eastern Europe that “When the money’s gone, the love is sure to follow.” I would forward the same principle for depositors of savings, and that is:  “When the trust is gone, the cash is soon to follow.”

The cartoon shown above is a stark reminder of what happens when “the smartest guys in the room” run out of highly profitable (and highly confusing) products to pitch to their clients with one eye on the risk and the other on their bonus poll and many times with both eyes locked in mortal combat. When markets move higher but without leadership and where tail risk (the chance of a negative market event) is high, the stock market wizards have been known to drop back ten yards and punt, meaning, of course, that they opt for the safety of simplicity.

Listening to CNBC this afternoon, there are more bond bulls these days than I can ever remember, and when asked why the emphasis on bonds, it is always because they want to wait “until things clear up” before committing to equities. The reality is that these were the same geniuses that were piling into the SPACs and FAANGS and “story stocks” back in mid-2021, just before the Fed decided to remove the punch bowl. I learned decades ago at the Wharton School that when the Fed is openly hostile to stocks with restrictive monetary policy, keep your money in your pocket.

In bear markets, as the late Richard Russell would hammer home, “he who loses least wins.”

Gold and Silver

The gold market opened above US$2,000 on Friday morning, with the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD:NYSE) within US$0.26 of a 52-week high and the highest trade since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early March 2022. I took one look at the way markets opened at 8:30 a.m. with a gap that was immediately filled in by the Crimex pit traders but then rallied hard until the GLD:NYSE opened at 9:30 am, at which point the same selling sent prices straight south.

The market went out with a US$16 loss versus a US$11 gain. Silver eked out a modest US$0.02 gain which was great, but with the equity markets under pressure early due to the Deutsche Bank action, it came as no surprise that the German Chancellor made a calming statement concerning DB after which the boys went to work such that the big “fear bid” in gold and the gap down in stocks were completely reversed by the end of trading.

Allied Copper Corp. (CPR:TSX.V; CPRRF:OTCQB)

Nevertheless, I am looking to take a leveraged position in gold through either options or futures next week, but for now, remaining on the sidelines has kept us from getting whipsawed. Traders must discipline themselves to take positions in silver only during deep drawdown sessions because drawdowns are getting bought and spikes are being faded in daily action best described as “choppy.”

Bottom line: this is a very tough market to trade, but those that have simply kept their feet in the stirrups since mid-October has been the real winners.

Good news should be hitting the screens shortly for Allied Copper Corp. (CPR:TSX.V; CPRRF:OTCQB) where a press release on Wednesday confirmed April 20th as the date for the name change to Volt Lithium Corp.

They also reported that a position belonging to former Volt shareholders totaling 33,984,000 shares had been filed under a voluntary lock-up agreement.

The stock closed up 10% for the day at CA$0.275 and in an environment where many of the Li names have been under pressure.

The shares are ahead 111.54% since October 31st, when they first announced intentions to merge, and show up 145% YTD making CPR:TSXV one the best performers on the board. If everything works out as advertised, the upside potential for this company is truly striking.

The group of juniors that I own is still stuck in neutral, and despite the fact that everyone is complaining about the same lack of excitement, it does not make it any easier. I happen to believe that rising metal prices combined with declining energy costs are the perfect elixir for a bull market in the developers which will reward the opportunistic investor.

 

Disclosures:

1) Michael J. Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of the following companies mentioned in this article: Allied Copper Corp. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with: None. Please click here for more information.

3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.

4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Allied Copper Corp., a company mentioned in this article.

 

Gold Shines Brighter Even in Difficult Times: What is the Reason for the Price Increase

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold continues its impressive streak of gains for the fourth week in a row. At the beginning of this week, the price of a troy ounce of the precious metal is around 1,973 USD.

This increase in the price of gold indicates that the market is looking for a “safe haven” from the effects of the banking crisis, which remains one of the main threats to the global economy. In addition, the US Federal Reserve’s ambiguous stance on the future interest rate makes gold quite attractive to investors.

At the end of last week, the European banking sector came under pressure again, which caused an increase in anxiety in stock markets around the world. The concern was caused by the decline in the shares of the largest European bank Deutsche Bank.

Against the backdrop of this uncertainty, gold is again becoming a “safe haven” for the capital market, which makes it one of the most demanding investment assets in the face of economic uncertainty. Some analysts believe that the price of gold may continue to rise in the near future, until there is stability in the financial markets.

On H4, XAU/USD has performed an impulse of decline to 1934.24 and growth to 2003.30. At the moment, a consolidation range is forming at these levels. If the price breaks out of it downwards, a link of correction to 1895.00 might follow. If the price breaks through upwards, the wave might continue to 2012.12. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD. Its signal line is above zero, directed strictly down to renew the lows.

On H1, XAU/USD has performed a structure of decline to 1977.90. At the moment, a consolidation range is forming around it. With an escape from it downwards, the wave might continue to 1952.50. Then growth to 1977.90 might follow, and then — a decline to 1927.00. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is above 20, aiming strictly upwards.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

COT Metals Speculators pushed their Gold bullish bets to 7-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

* This COT data is fully up-to-date after weeks of delays due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). The hacking incident had disrupted the ability for the CFTC to report large trader positions.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as three out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (18,274 contracts) with Silver (4,681 contracts) and Copper (1,805 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-1,047 contracts) and Palladium (-550 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold bets on the rise

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the recent bullishness for the Gold speculative positions. The large speculator position in Gold futures advanced this week for a second straight week and for the fourth time out of the past five weeks. The Gold position has gone from a total net position of +105,529 contracts on February 14th to a new 7-week high at a total of +158,605 contracts this week with the five-week total of speculator bets showing a gain of +53,076 contracts. The speculator strength score (0 to 100 range) for Gold has risen to 47 percent while the 6-week speculator strength score trend has shown a rise of 13 percent.

The Gold futures price closed below the $1,995 price level this week after touching its highest point in just about a year over the $2,014.00 threshold on Monday. Gold has gained over 20 percent since its recent low levels in early November that saw the price fall to approximately $1,618.30.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Mar-21-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold469,87422158,60547-183,5685324,96343
Silver119,08203,46223-12,681799,21917
Copper201,63644-12,351177,536804,81549
Palladium11,64780-7,01817,369100-35121
Platinum61,416459,52638-14,141644,61530

 


Strength Scores led by Gold & Platinum

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Gold (47 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Platinum (38 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (1 percent) and Copper (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (46.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (38.8 percent)
Silver (23.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (16.5 percent)
Copper (17.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (15.8 percent)
Platinum (37.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (40.0 percent)
Palladium (0.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.8 percent)

 

Gold & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (13 percent) leads the past six weeks trends and is the only positive mover for metals.

Palladium (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-14 percent) as the next market with lowest trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (13.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-8.8 percent)
Silver (-14.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (-40.7 percent)
Copper (-13.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-28.1 percent)
Platinum (-2.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-12.8 percent)
Palladium (-26.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-20.3 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 158,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 140,331 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.625.910.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.965.04.8
– Net Position:158,605-183,56824,963
– Gross Longs:237,891121,67847,624
– Gross Shorts:79,286305,24622,661
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.953.142.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.1-11.82.0

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 3,462 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,219 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.740.918.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.851.511.0
– Net Position:3,462-12,6819,219
– Gross Longs:41,32548,68522,328
– Gross Shorts:37,86361,36613,109
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.278.517.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.420.6-38.8

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.346.88.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.543.16.3
– Net Position:-12,3517,5364,815
– Gross Longs:51,09594,35317,564
– Gross Shorts:63,44686,81712,749
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.479.849.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.315.9-24.3

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 9,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,573 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.039.712.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.562.84.6
– Net Position:9,526-14,1414,615
– Gross Longs:25,19924,3997,431
– Gross Shorts:15,67338,5402,816
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.6 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.664.229.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.54.9-17.2

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -7,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.073.010.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:74.39.713.6
– Net Position:-7,0187,369-351
– Gross Longs:1,6338,4981,234
– Gross Shorts:8,6511,1291,585
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 17.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.799.620.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.925.1-3.5

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Gold rises again as financial markets don’t believe Powell’s words

By JustMarkets

On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% to 5% and maintained its outlook for another increase this year. Treasury yields rebounded from session lows, and interest-rate-sensitive sectors of the market, including technology, lost momentum. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.63%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.65%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 1.60%.

The main theses of the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell:

  • Another 25bp rate hike at the next meeting is possible, but it will all depend on incoming macro data;
  • FOMC is committed to getting inflation back to 2.00% to ensure price stability;
  • Inflation in commodity prices is declining, but progress in services is still insufficient;
  • The US banking system remains strong and resilient;
  • A Fed rate cut this year is not a baseline scenario;
  • Asset reductions in Treasury securities will continue (quantitative tightening – QT).

The benchmark Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, is projected to be 3.6% in 2023, up from the previous forecast of 3.5%. Inflation is expected to slow to 2.6% in 2024, but this is higher than the previous forecast of 2.5%. The 2024 rate forecast was raised from 4.1% to 4.3%. GDP growth forecast slightly lowered from 0.5% to 0.4% and from 1.6% to 1.2% in 2024. Labor market strength, which has played a role in sustaining basic services, is also expected to remain unchanged in the near term. The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.5% in 2023 from the previous estimate of 4.6% but will rise to 4.6% next year.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s balance sheet has also been in the spotlight after it began to expand again due to problems in the banking system. The Fed’s balance sheet now stands at $8.6 trillion, up from $8.34 trillion last month. The sharp change in the Fed’s balance sheet from contraction to expansion followed the rising cost of funding and the central bank’s new line of credit to support the banking system.

Bank of America, citing tightening lending standards, said it now expects just one more 25 basis point rate hike to raise rates to a ceiling range of 5.0% to 5.25%.

Europe’s stock indices were mostly rising on Wednesday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.14%, French CAC 40 (FR40) jumped by 0.26%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.44%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed yesterday up by 0.41%.

Overall, UK inflation rose in February, rising to 10.4% y/y, up from 10.1% y/y in January and market expectations of 9.9%. Core inflation also rose sharply to 6.2% from 5.8%, half a point above market expectations. Such data will undoubtedly require the Bank of England to be more hawkish. Therefore, analysts are expecting a 0.25% rate hike today, with a possible another hike at the next meeting.

UK inflation is expected to fall sharply at the end of the second quarter due to lower energy costs. The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts that inflation will fall to 2.9% by the end of the year.

Falling US government bond yields on the back of the FOMC meeting caused gold prices to spike. Though earlier, when the words tightening and rate hike were used, gold declined. This suggests that investors have overestimated the current US Federal Reserve policy and do not trust the US central bank to tighten further. Although the Fed continues to reiterate that “the banking system is resilient and sound,” US Treasury Secretary Jennet Yellen said that “universal deposit insurance” is not an option – bank stocks immediately plummeted again. In fact, the market is showing that it does not believe the Fed’s words/forecasts. Gold prices may continue to rise, analysts suggested. In their opinion, the chance of new growth in gold prices is indicated by the banks’ difficulties and a possible turning point in the Fed’s policy.

Asian markets were mostly rising on Tuesday. Japan Nikkei 225 (JP225) grew by 1.93%, China FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.47%, Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 1.73%, India NIFTY 50 (IND50) added 0.26%, and Australia S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up by 0.87% on the day.

Singapore’s core consumer price index remained at 5.5% y/y in February. The decline in service prices was generally offset by higher prices for retail sales as well as other goods and utilities, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said in a statement. Analysts believe that core inflation in the country has peaked. At the same time, MAS said it forecasted a core inflation rate in the range of 3.5% to 4.5% in 2023.

On Thursday, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%. Hong Kong’s monetary policy is in step with that of the US Federal Reserve, as the HKD currency is pegged to the US dollar in a narrow range of 7.75-7.85 per dollar.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,936.97 −65.90 (−1.65%)

Dow Jones (US30)32,030.11 −530.49 (−1.63%)

DAX (DE40) 15,216.19 +20.85 (+0.14%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,566.84 +30.62 (+0.41%)

USD Index 102.54 −0.71 (−0.63%)

Important events for today:
  • – Hong Kong Interest Rate Decision at 04:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Hong Kong Consumer Price Index at 10:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision at 10:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment at 10:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Switzerland SNB Press Conference at 11:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The Importance of Gold

Source: Streetwise Reports  (3/20/23)

James Turk of Goldmoney, the impetus behind The Gold Report here at Streetwise, explains why he believes gold and silver are imperative assets to own in this current economy and how you can get involved with them.

Starting his career in the 1960s working for Chase Manhattan Bank in Thailand, The Philippines, and Hong Kong, James Turk has a long history in the world of finance. In 2001, Turk started goldmoney.com with his eldest son, Geoffrey.

GoldMoney (XAU:TSX) focuses on precious metals buying and selling, storage, coin retailing, and gold jewelry manufacturing and sales through a subsidiary, Menē.com, aka Menē Inc. (MENE:TSX.V; MENEF:OTCMKTS).

The company has clients in over 100 countries around the world and currently safeguards over US$2 billion of assets owned by its clients. Overall, Goldmoney has a reputation for success that comes with the reputation held by James Turk.

However, people don’t know that while James Turk is the force behind Goldmoney, he was also the reason The Gold Report was started.

A Discussion in the Mountains

The conversation started in the mountains. Gordon Holmes, the CEO and founder of Streetwise Reports, and James had been friends for years. Then one day, Gordon invited James to share a bottle of wine at Lookout Ridge (Gordon’s winery in California).

As they spoke about the market over a glass of pinot, James asked Gordon why he hadn’t stepped into the gold market yet. Gordon was honest and relayed to him that he didn’t believe he knew enough about the market to be all that involved.

That is when James looked Gordon in the eye and told him, “You’ll figure it out.”

And The Gold Report was born.

Without that fortuitous meeting, Streetwise Reports as we know it may have never come to be.

Why Gold?

Goldmoney may have been started in 2001, but Turk’s interest in gold was fostered from a young age. Growing up, Turk’s father and grandparents shared stories of fleeing from Austria’s hyperinflation after World War I.

Because of this, Turk said, “I’ve always been of the view that gold and silver had an important role to play in economic activity and that accumulating gold and silver was a means of saving — a way to save purchasing power.”

He went on to say, “It’s never too late to save money, but it doesn’t make sense to save fiat currency anymore because of negative interest rates. In other words, if you deposit money into a bank at the end of the year, you have less purchasing power. Even though you’re earning interest income, the inflation rate is higher than the interest income that you’re earning. So you’ll never get ahead that way. With physical gold and silver, you won’t be earning interest income, but you’re going to preserve your purchasing power over time.”

This is one of the reasons Turk is such an ardent advocate for owning some precious metals in a diversified investment portfolio.

Gold After Nixon

In our wide-ranging discussion, Turk also touched on the value of the U.S. dollar compared to gold beginning with President Nixon.

“Living and working in a bank through the 1970s was, for me, a life-changing experience. And obviously, something I’m never going to forget. Worryingly, there are a lot of similarities today to what occurred back then. But there are also some differences too.”

Turk explained that in the 70s, easy money printing caused inflation to soar out of control. When Paul Volcker was appointed chairman of the Federal Reserve in 1979, he kept raising interest rates until inflation began to decline. He did this to save the U.S. dollar when faith in the currency was rapidly eroding.

Turk said, “I’ve always been of the view that gold and silver had an important role to play in economic activity and that accumulating gold and silver was a means of saving — a way to save purchasing power.”

Turk went on to say: “At the peak, the interest income you could earn over and above the inflation rate was 6%, which is phenomenally high because the natural interest rate is normally about 1%.

It was enough to rebuild confidence in the dollar. Volcker eventually brought inflation under control by decreasing — and this is important — decreasing the growth rate of the quantity of dollar currency. He never actually decreased the quantity of dollar currency. There was never any deflation. It was just disinflation, but what’s happening this time around is different.”

“The Federal Reserve cannot simply raise interest rates to levels that Volcker needed to bring down the inflation rate. There’s too much debt in the economy. So now, what the Fed is doing is decreasing the quantity of dollars. This could lead to a deflationary economic collapse.”

Turk noted, “Ultimately, in a deflationary economy, the debtors end up in trouble. The debt burden increases because the value of the currency increases. Also, liquidity disappears in a deflationary environment. Anyone who’s heavily leveraged — like a lot of the banks — tends to suffer in that type of environment, as occurred in the 1930s. So it’s a very important time to be focusing on gold and silver because regardless of whether it’s inflation or deflation, gold, and silver will get you through the turmoil to the other side of the valley.”

In 1971, Nixon closed the gold window breaking its formal link to the dollar. Since then, the dollar’s purchasing power has been eroding, but this process began much earlier. The dollar has lost 98.5% of its purchasing power since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. In recent decades this debasement of the dollar has accelerated.

Measuring in Ounces

Turk went on to say that while we calculate the price of things using the dollar, we must also be using ounces of gold or silver to measure prices.

“When looking at the price of crude oil going back to 1950, you get different results depending on the measuring stick used. If you measure oil in terms of ounces of gold, the price of crude oil hasn’t changed much. An ounce of gold buys about the same amount of crude oil today as in 1950.This example shows how gold preserves purchasing power over the long term. It does this because gold is natural money. The quantity of the aboveground stock of gold increases at approximately the same rate as the world’s population and new wealth creation. Because these growth rates are consistent, gold retains its purchasing power.”

“Gold and silver are not investments; they’re money. Gold and silver didn’t increase your wealth — your purchasing power — over these seven decades. They preserved it, which is one of money’s most important functions.”

“I like to tell a story that I remember from growing up in the 1950s. I think is very meaningful.”

“My parents would drive the family car to the local gas station and fill it up for US$2. Back then, the paper currency was silver certificates. You could also pay with silver coins, for example, two silver dollars or four half dollars.”

“Today, US$2 doesn’t even buy a gallon of gas. But the market value of the silver content of those old coins will still fill up the family car.”

The following chart of crude oil prices shows how gold and silver preserve purchasing, but national currencies do not. Measured in dollars, crude oil is 30 times more expensive than it was in 1950. The British pound has fared even worse, with oil 69 times more expensive today in that currency.

“There is one key point that people need to understand,” he continued. “Gold and silver are not investments; they’re money. Gold and silver didn’t increase your wealth — your purchasing power — over these seven decades. They preserved it, which is one of money’s most important functions.”

“Sterile assets like precious metals don’t generate cash flow. When their price rises, purchasing power moves from people owning national currency to people owning precious metals. The precious metals have value because they are useful as money.”

“What’s more,” Turk continued, “they are money that is not based on anyone’s promise, so they don’t have counterparty risk. For that reason, they provide unconditional liquidity. Your purchasing power placed in gold and silver is not reliant upon some bank or a government promise. And by measuring goods, services, and your investment portfolio in terms of ounces, you’ll come up with an entirely different perspective.”

“It is meaningful to use gold to measure accumulated wealth. You are measuring purchasing power with money that has proven its ability to retain its purchasing power over long periods of time — as we can see in the chart of crude oil prices.”

The Decline of the US Dollar

As faith in gold’s purchasing power rises, we see that trust in the U.S. dollar erodes, especially in an inflationary environment.

Turk pointed out that “if you look at measures completed by private economists, the inflation rate is much, much higher than what the government reports. So regardless of who you rely on to measure inflation, the dollar is losing purchasing power every day.”

Will the dollar collapse and become obsolete?

Turk replied: “That involves predicting the future, and unfortunately, no one can predict the future. All you can do is be prepared as best you can for any eventuality. And given their track record going back thousands of years, owning some physical gold and silver is one way to do that. If worse comes to worst, you’ll be prepared and ready by owning some gold and silver so that your wealth is diversified.”

He also favors the shares of precious metal mining companies but advised: “Owning gold and silver is different from owning the shares of mining companies. The shares are investments, not money. Buying shares in mining companies requires the same amount of diligent attention that you apply to any investment. For example, you need to look at the quality of management, the company’s mining property, their financial accounts, country risk where they operate, and many other factors.”

“The mining shares, in my view, are undervalued. They are not tangible assets like gold and silver. I consider them to be ‘near tangible’ because the mining companies own tangible assets in the form of mines and equipment that produce tangible assets.”

How to Store Gold

If you wish to be prepared and get involved in tangible assets, knowing how to store them is imperative. With gold and silver, you have two options. You can either store it yourself or pay for a professional firm to safeguard them for you — this is where Goldmoney comes in.

Turk explained, “Through Goldmoney, customers can store their precious metals in vaults operated by specialized vaulting companies in different places around the world. You can choose among different countries, different political risks, and different geographic risks so that you can diversify. Again, there is no one right answer. But if there is an answer that comes close to being the right choice, it’s diversifying your assets as much as practical.”

When searching for professional storage, Turk pinpointed the importance of working with a company that does independent third-party audits. In this way, you have assurances of integrity that your assets are properly cared for. Goldmoney currently safeguards over US$2 billion in customer assets worldwide.

Money and Liberty: In the Pursuit of Happiness & The Theory of Natural Money

If you’d like to learn more about the importance of gold and silver and how to incorporate them into your portfolio, these and many more topics are covered in James Turk’s latest book, Money and Liberty: In the Pursuit of Happiness & The Theory of Natural Money.

Money and Liberty was published by Wood Lane Books in November 2021 and is available on Amazon. It has been praised as “an excellent and insightful book” that provides “a clear but detailed history of the relationship of sound money to human freedom.”

 

Disclosures:
1) Katherine DeGilio wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with: None. Please click here for more information.

3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.

4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

Tech Analyst Believes Now Is an Excellent Time To Add Positions

Source: Clive Maund  (3/17/23)

Technical analyst Clive Maund of clivemaund.com reviews Dolly Varden Silver Corp.’s 6-month chart to tell you why he believe now would be the time to buy.

The fundamentals for Dolly Varden Silver Corp. (DV:TSX.V; DOLLF:OTCQX) are excellent, as set out by Mr Bob Moriarty of 321gold in a recent piece he wrote on it.

So we have been angling for a good point to add to positions or make fresh purchases but have been waiting for signs that the intermediate downtrend of recent weeks has run its course.

As is so often the case, when too many people are positive on a stock, it drops, and that is what happened with this, excellent fundamentals or not, but now it looks like the excess enthusiasm has been wrung out.

Dolly Varden was mentioned as looking attractive some days back in a wide-ranging Market Notebook article and the reason for this article devoted just to it is that it put in a strongly bullish reversal candle, called a “dragonfly doji” yesterday, which is a sign that the low for the reaction is in and that it should now start higher again.

We have what may prove to be an excellent entry point now, for after closing near to the day’s high yesterday after a wide range that tested support, it is order for it to back off some today which is what it has done.

On short-term charts, we can see greater upside volume kicking in in recent days, which is encouraging.

The conclusion is that this is an excellent point to add to positions in Dolly Varden or make fresh purchases.

Dolly Varden Silver’s website.

Dolly Varden Silver closed for trading at CA$0.90, $0.685 at 12.15 pm on March 16, 2023.

 

CliveMaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

Disclosures
1) Clive Maund: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of the following companies mentioned in this article: None. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: Dolly Varden Silver Corp. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with: None. Please click here for more information.

3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.

4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

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