Metals

Archive for Metals – Page 14

Gold Continues Three-Day Rally Amid Market Uncertainties: A Detailed Analysis

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices are on a consecutive three-day rise, reaching $1930.00 per Troy ounce as of Monday. The upward trend seems to be fueled by investors seeking a hedge against uncertainties ahead of key events this week.

Investors are keenly awaiting the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision, which is widely expected to maintain the interest rate at 5.5% per annum. The primary focus will likely be on the Fed’s outlook on the economy and inflation, which should provide valuable insights into the regulator’s future course of action.

Additionally, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are set to hold their meetings this week, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the minutes from its previous meeting.

Another contributing factor to gold’s demand is the sudden depreciation in the yuan exchange rate, making the precious metal more attractive as a safe-haven asset.

Technical Analysis of XAU/USD price chart

On the 4-hour XAU/USD chart, a downward wave has concluded at $1901.00, followed by a corrective rally to $1930.00. A consolidation phase is anticipated below this level. Should the price break below the consolidation range, there’s potential for an extension of the downward wave to $1893.40. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) confirms this scenario, with its signal line positioned above zero but appearing to gear up for a downward movement.

On the 1-hour chart, the price has formed a consolidation zone around $1915.85. Breaking out of this range to the upside, it has corrected to $1930.25. A retracement to $1915.00 is anticipated today. If this level is decisively breached, the door may open for a more significant drop to $1893.40. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, showing its signal line above the 80 mark but trending strictly downward.

In summary, gold is experiencing a bullish streak, propelled by market uncertainties and key economic events on the horizon. Technical indicators point towards a possible short-term decline, but overall sentiment appears cautiously optimistic. Investors should closely monitor upcoming central bank meetings and currency fluctuations for further clues on the metal’s future trajectory.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

18 Sep

Dumping All Gold Into This Intraday Bounce

Source: Michael Ballanger (9/15/23)

Michael Ballanger takes a look at the current state of gold stock and some energy stocks he believes are worth looking into.

Gold

Fourteen days ago, gold moved above its 100-dma around $1,971/ounce, with both MACD and MFI working solid “buy signals.” It appeared that a move to test $2,000/ounce was in the cards, and I took a position on that basis, also noting that gold seasonality favored an October rally.

While seasonally, September is one of the weakest months for gold, I expected that it would, at the very worst, trade sideways to slightly lower until October’s seasonally strong history kicks in, but it has been literally straight down all month, and now has broken the uptrend line drawn off the March and August lows.

From the seasonality chart shown above, you definitely want to be long the gold market going into December, but the question remains: From what level?

If I continue to hold all SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD:NYSE) positions while gold heads down to $1,900, I run the risk of a failure at $1,900 (GLD:US $175), and I wind up with a large drawdown on my hands as I await the always-dependable December rally. That rally might only get us back to a breakeven point, which is doubly frustrating.

I am not going to allow the GLD:US trade to deteriorate into another hit, so by the end of trading:

Sell all GLD:US and December $175 calls. I will take a breakeven on the calls and a modest gain on the stock and wait for a better entry point sometime later this month or in November.

Western Uranium & Vanadium Corp.

With all of the uranium stocks now catching a bid thanks to a big jump in U3O8 prices at the start of the month, Western Uranium & Vanadium Corp. (WUC:CSE; WSTRF:OTCQX) has once again begun an ascent to higher prices driven by buying from one of the big uranium equity funds south of the border.

First, look at the 7-year chart, which shows the crazy behavior of the uranium market, moving violently in fits and shoves from total disinterest to wild-eyed buy-side mania from out of nowhere and with little advance notice.

The moves in 2018 and 2021 saw bottoms in the early part of those years and peaks in Q4, after which they collapsed back down to earth, where prices drifted sideways month after month.

I did not trade the position because I thought then (and think today) that demand-supply conditions are tilting rapidly in favor for the uranium pricing structure where fifty-seven (57) new nuclear reactors are under construction.

From the chart shown below, you can see that there is a great deal of “room to run” for WUC/WSTRF.

Now, look at the year-to-date chart for the same company, and it tells a somewhat different story.

The stock has blasted off from under CA$0.95 to $1.71 in less than a month, taking RSI to nearly 90 (before pulling back), and both MACD and MFI are now in egregiously “overbought” territories.

Mind you, the run in 2022 saw RSI move above 70 (“overbought”) six times en route to $4.30 from the COVID-19 CRASH low of CA$0.28!

E3 Lithium and Volt Lithium

Due to the stretched RSI and elevated MACD and MFI readings, I would avoid the stock, but once again, I would not try to trade it because it is my only uranium holding in a sector that could easily see new highs for U3O8 above $138 per pound once these new reactors begin taking off all available supply over the next two years.

My theme for the decade is that the electrification movement will place incremental demand-supply pressures on new, clean sources of electricity (nuclear), transmission infrastructure needs (copper), and electricity storage capacity (lithium). Solar and wind are not capable of supplying the grid with enough electricity to satisfy escalating demand, which leaves nuclear energy as the logical heir to the throne.

Uranium producers and developers should do very well in such an environment. However, I have been hearing this for over seven years since I first bought the CA$1.70 placement in WUC:CSE and have twice missed the pops to $3.40 and $4.25. My goal is to take profits at new highs in uranium prices, which has been elusive despite compelling fundamentals.

Trade accordingly.

Last Friday, with E3 Lithium Ltd. (ETL:TSXV;EEMMF:US) trading at $5.00, I put out this chart and got roasted by ETL shareholders from Fairbanks to Boca Raton such that when it hit $5.50 on Tuesday, I was getting emails and DM’s and private messages explaining how I didn’t “get it.”

Here is the updated chart of ETL showing the impact of massively overbought conditions in RSI (above 80), MACD, and MFI, plus chatroom banter talking about a “buyout from Imperial Oil” and “short squeeze to $10 all weekend long.

Volt Lithium Corp. (VLT:TSV;VLTLF:US) is also under pressure, but RSI at 53.83 is now neutral and no longer “overbought.”

Important Disclosures:

Volt Lithium Corp. has a consulting relationship with an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, and pays a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Volt Lithium Corp. and Western Uranium & Vanadium Corp.
Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All. My company has a financial relationship with Volt. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Michael Ballanger Disclosures

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

Financial News Metals

17 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Palladium (309 contracts) with also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-14,142 contracts) with Silver (-8,771 contracts), Platinum (-7,881 contracts), Copper (-5,564 contracts) and Steel (-588 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-12-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	441,221	9	123,864	32	-144,810	68	20,946	32
Silver	125,292	14	18,033	44	-32,040	55	14,007	44
Copper	196,198	39	-12,334	20	9,886	80	2,448	34
Palladium	17,838	82	-10,712	2	10,761	99	-49	39
Platinum	87,021	100	6,721	31	-12,396	68	5,675	44

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (61 percent) and Silver (44 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (20 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Platinum (31 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (31.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (37.8 percent)
Silver (44.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (56.5 percent)
Copper (20.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (25.0 percent)
Platinum (31.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (49.3 percent)
Palladium (2.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (60.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (62.3 percent)

Steel & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (-9 percent) and Palladium (-10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (-18 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Gold (-18 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-20 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-18.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-15.7 percent)
Silver (-18.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.4 percent)
Copper (-19.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-6.9 percent)
Platinum (-12.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-2.0 percent)
Palladium (-9.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-17.9 percent)
Steel (-8.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 123,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 138,006 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.4	25.6	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	58.4	5.8
– Net Position:	123,864	-144,810	20,946
– Gross Longs:	235,704	113,062	46,740
– Gross Shorts:	111,840	257,872	25,794
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.6	68.1	32.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.1	16.2	-2.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,771 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,804 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.3	31.9	21.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	57.5	9.9
– Net Position:	18,033	-32,040	14,007
– Gross Longs:	52,963	40,030	26,427
– Gross Shorts:	34,930	72,070	12,420
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	55.1	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.3	14.5	4.6

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,334 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,564 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,770 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	39.0	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.6	34.0	6.9
– Net Position:	-12,334	9,886	2,448
– Gross Longs:	67,333	76,561	16,045
– Gross Shorts:	79,667	66,675	13,597
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.2	79.8	33.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.9	23.2	-31.3

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,721 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.1	23.0	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	37.2	3.9
– Net Position:	6,721	-12,396	5,675
– Gross Longs:	43,619	19,999	9,083
– Gross Shorts:	36,898	32,395	3,408
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.1	67.9	44.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.9	10.5	6.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 309 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,021 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	62.9	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	85.0	2.6	9.4
– Net Position:	-10,712	10,761	-49
– Gross Longs:	4,452	11,217	1,627
– Gross Shorts:	15,164	456	1,676
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	24.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.1	99.2	38.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	7.9	12.6

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,442 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	88.0	1.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	63.2	1.8
– Net Position:	-5,030	5,182	-152
– Gross Longs:	1,154	18,389	215
– Gross Shorts:	6,184	13,207	367
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	40.0	4.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.9	9.5	-22.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

12 Sep

Lithium Deals

Source: Michael Ballanger (9/11/23)

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. takes a look at the current state of lithium, and one lithium stock he believes is still a “Strong Buy.”

The popularity of the lithium stocks was concentrated on the Australian deals, with the rush starting in 2015 and slowly gaining momentum throughout the 2020-2022 period, with many billions of dollars raised for and committed to lithium carbonate production.

As can be seen from the graphic posted above, lithium demand is growing so rapidly that a tripling of global production will only just keep markets adequately balanced.

Furthermore, despite new discoveries in Canada and Australia, the 6-15 year development time means that companies that can meet demand quickly will be the prime beneficiaries of such demand, which rules out the “miners” but which quickly and dynamically includes the “briners.”

Within that category, those with immediate access to oilfield brines, where infrastructure is already in place, will be the first group to seize the spoils of the supply-demand imbalance, whereas the hard-rock pegmatite developers carry the risk of time in their feasibility studies.

Since stock charts can be quite revealing as to investment trends and prevailing sentiment, look at the chart of hard-rock pegmatite discoverer Patriot Battery Metals Inc. (PMET:CA) whose Corvette Property contains the largest lithium pegmatite deposit in the Americas and the 8^th largest globally.

The stock price peaked in June at CA$17.74 and has since declined over 34% as the weight of a CA$1.8 billion market cap met face-to-face with a 6-15-year development window. In other words, no cash flow or similar return to shareholders would be seen until almost 2030 and possibly 2040. PMET is arguably the leader in the field for hard-rock lithium “miners,” and the stock chart suggests that it has peaked, at least on a near-term basis.

The leader in the oilfield brine extractors (“Direct Lithium Extraction” or “DLE”) is Canadian-based E3 Lithium Ltd. (ETL:TSXV;EEMMF:US), whose share price has seen a substantial leap since the July correction before peaking at CA$5.24 this morning in what appears to be a classic blow-off. However, the stock is the poster child for the “briners” and reached a market cap this morning at almost CA$400 million.

The major question regarding pricing revolves around the proximity to cash flow. Any of the “briners” will be able to produce lithium far more rapidly than will the “miners,” so when comparing the current CA$1.64 billion market cap for PMET to the CA$400 million market cap for ETL, do you assign a greater value on resource size than proximity to cash flow?

As was stated in the Goldman Sachs report, big money has seen how fast a spiking commodity price can attract new supply and how quickly that new supply can derail even the strongest of momentum stories. This, I believe, is why money is rotating out of the “miners” and into the “briners,” so looking at market caps of some of the Aussie lithium deals (all in the A$ billions) against market caps in North America, there is little surprise that money flow is shifting to the “briners.”

I was unable to pick off the lithium story until quite late in the global run in these stocks, so when I discovered that the former Allied Copper Corp. had joined forces with Volt Lithium Corp. (VLT:TSV;VLTLF:US), I was at once both delighted and fearful, as being late to a specific commodity-driven stock party always turns out in disaster.

I know more than a few stock players that got roasted in 2001 with internet stocks and, more recently, in 2018 with the cannabis craze.

Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB:NYSE; ACB:TSX) peaked in mid-2018 at nearly CA$200/share before falling out of favor (off the peak of Mt. Everest) today residing at a mere CA$0.71.

So, when I view the market cap of VLT/VLTLF at CAD $64 million versus ETL/EMMFF at CAD $400 million versus PMET at $1.64 billion, I am overwhelmed by the opportunity in front of us.

Could Volt see a market cap comparable to Patriot Battery Metals?

The company has a target of 20,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide production by mid-2027, carrying a gross revenue (assuming CA$43,000/tonne Li) of CA$860 million against costs of CA$70 million. Pre-tax earnings of CA$790 million on a share count of 200,000,000 of CA$3.95 per share. Assume a 30 multiple, and you arrive at CA$118.50 per share. With 200m shares issued, the market cap would be CA$23.7 billion.

Now, could my projections be based upon either natural-born optimism or hope or well-aimed prayers at the deity of my choosing?

To a degree, yes, but I am also a realist and a trained finance major who understands the elasticity of valuations based on cash flow generation. Most of the more speculative deals I have done in my career have been a Getchell-type analysis where the in-ground metal value of the resource takes precedence over cash flow proximity. In the case of both PMET and ETL, they are promoting resource size over cash flow proximity. In the case of Volt, it is precisely its proximity to cash flow generation that sets it apart.

The stock went out at CA$0.375 tonight, which was up 41.5% from the weekly lows and remains up 172.73% year-to-date.

Volt Lithium Corp. remains a “Strong Buy” despite the “overbought” readings and based upon the relatively low comparative market capitalization.

Important Disclosures:

Volt Lithium Corp. has a consulting relationship with an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, and pays a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Volt Lithium Corp.
Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All. My company has a financial relationship with Volt Lithium Corp. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here

Michael Ballanger Disclosures

Financial News Metals

11 Sep

Trade Of The Week: Gold Outlook Hinges On US CPI Data

By ForexTime

Gold prices caught our attention on Monday morning after briefly punching above $1930 as the dollar retreated.

Over the last few weeks, the precious metal has been influenced by conflicting forces and this continues to be reflected in the choppy price action. The potent cocktail of themes ranging from Fed hike expectations, global growth concerns, and dollar volatility among others have trapped prices within a wide range.

Bulls and bears remain engaged in a fierce tug of war with a fresh fundamental spark needed to shift the scales of power in one direction. Regarding the technical outlook, gold is still respecting a bearish channel on the weekly charts. However, strong support can be found at $1915 – a level where the 200-day SMA resides.

This could be an intense week for gold and here are 3 reasons why:

US August CPI report

The August US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report published on Wednesday, September 13 will act as a critical piece of information that determines whether the Fed will keep rates higher for longer.

Given gold’s zero-yielding nature, this pending report has the potential to trigger explosive levels of volatility.

Market expectations for US August CPI:

CPI year-on-year (August 2023 vs. August 2022) to rise 3.6% from 3.2% in the prior month.
Core CPI year-on-year to rise 4.3% from 4.7% seen in July.
CPI month-on-month (August 2023 vs. August 2023) to rise 0.6% from 0.2% in the prior month.
Core CPI month-on-month to remain unchanged at 0.2% from 0.2% seen in July.

Headline inflation is expected to jump thanks to higher energy costs, but all eyes will be on the core CPI figures which are forecast to remain unchanged month-on-month. Ultimately, further signs of cooling inflationary pressures may feed the argument around the Fed concluding its hiking cycle.

It is worth noting that traders are currently pricing in a 7% probability of a 25-basis point hike this month, with this jumping to 44% by November, according to Fed funds futures.

Gold prices could shine if the inflation numbers print below market forecast, as signs of slowing inflation strengthen the argument around the Fed already finished with hikes in 2023.
Should the inflation figures print above market forecasts, gold prices are likely to depreciate as expectations rise around the Fed having headroom to hike one time this year.

US data dump

After the main course, which is the US CPI report, investors will be dished out more key US economic reports in the second half of the trading week to complete the meal.

All eyes will be on the US retail sales, PPI, initial jobless claims, industrial production, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment which could provide insight into the health of the US economy. When factoring the Fed’s emphasis on data-dependence when it comes to monetary policy decisions, this data dump could trigger dollar volatility – ultimately impacting gold prices.

Should the overall US economic data print below market expectations, this may weaken the dollar – pushing gold prices higher.
If overall US economic data prints above expectations, the dollar could receive a boost – dragging gold prices lower.

Technical forces

Despite rebounding from the 200-day SMA, gold prices remain trapped within a range on the daily charts with support at $1915 and resistance at $1931 where the 50-day SMA resides.

Gold could be in the process of a technical rebound or pullback with both technical and fundamental forces determining where prices conclude the week.

A solid daily breakout and close above $1931 could signal a move higher with the next key level of interest found at $1953.
Should prices slip back under the $1915 support, this may invite bears to attack $1900 and $1885, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Metals

09 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Copper & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was with Gold (14,734 contracts) and Copper (9,846 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Palladium (-1,045 contracts) with Platinum (-436 contracts), Silver (-329 contracts) and Steel (-320 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-05-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	438,672	8	138,006	38	-158,239	63	20,233	31
Silver	128,279	17	26,804	56	-37,708	48	10,904	27
Copper	193,597	37	-6,770	25	4,659	75	2,111	32
Palladium	17,644	80	-11,021	0	10,888	100	133	50
Platinum	68,721	53	14,602	49	-19,001	54	4,399	27

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Copper (25 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (37.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (31.3 percent)
Silver (56.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (57.0 percent)
Copper (25.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (16.5 percent)
Platinum (49.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (50.3 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.1 percent)
Steel (61.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (62.2 percent)

Platinum & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (-2 percent) and Copper (-7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals with the least negative scores.

Palladium (-18 percent), Gold (-16 percent) and Silver (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-15.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (-30.8 percent)
Silver (-14.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (-23.9 percent)
Copper (-6.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-11.3 percent)
Platinum (-2.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-1.6 percent)
Palladium (-17.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-11.0 percent)
Steel (-8.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-11.0 percent)