Archive for Metals – Page 14

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Silver this week

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the way for the metals this week was Silver with a total gain of 4,145 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-10,954 contracts), Gold (-10,840 contracts), Copper (-6,320 contracts), Steel (-465 contracts) and Palladium (-207 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-14-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	486,634	30	155,376	45	-177,019	56	21,643	38
Copper	206,072	47	-16,608	16	16,449	85	159	19
Silver	134,826	26	22,398	50	-31,634	56	9,236	18
Platinum	85,870	97	-3,996	6	-2,365	89	6,361	53
Palladium	27,381	100	-11,230	2	11,283	99	-53	39

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (93 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Silver (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (2 percent), Platinum (6 percent) and Copper (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels this week and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (45.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (50.2 percent)
Silver (50.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (44.3 percent)
Copper (16.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.0 percent)
Platinum (6.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (31.6 percent)
Palladium (1.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (3.1 percent)
Steel (92.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (94.4 percent)

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (28 percent) and Steel (15 percent) topped the past six weeks trends for the metals category.

Platinum (-15 percent) and Palladium (-10 percent) were the leaders for the downside trend scores on the week.

Move Statistics:
Gold (28.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (22.2 percent)
Silver (10.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (-2.6 percent)
Copper (4.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (16.0 percent)
Platinum (-15.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-0.8 percent)
Palladium (-9.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-4.7 percent)
Steel (14.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (19.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 155,376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 166,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.3	22.8	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	59.1	4.9
– Net Position:	155,376	-177,019	21,643
– Gross Longs:	254,352	110,728	45,409
– Gross Shorts:	98,976	287,747	23,766
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.5	55.6	37.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.2	-25.1	2.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 22,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,253 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.3	33.8	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	57.2	12.0
– Net Position:	22,398	-31,634	9,236
– Gross Longs:	50,291	45,551	25,379
– Gross Shorts:	27,893	77,185	16,143
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.2	55.6	17.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-1.5	-32.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -16,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,320 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,288 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.1	39.0	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.1	31.0	7.2
– Net Position:	-16,608	16,449	159
– Gross Longs:	61,976	80,287	15,028
– Gross Shorts:	78,584	63,838	14,869
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	85.3	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-2.9	-11.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,954 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,958 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.4	29.0	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.0	31.8	4.1
– Net Position:	-3,996	-2,365	6,361
– Gross Longs:	44,969	24,942	9,842
– Gross Shorts:	48,965	27,307	3,481
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.4	88.6	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	10.6	19.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,023 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	49.6	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.8	8.4	7.2
– Net Position:	-11,230	11,283	-53
– Gross Longs:	5,689	13,583	1,911
– Gross Shorts:	16,919	2,300	1,964
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	5.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.7	98.9	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	9.0	5.4

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,768 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	75.4	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	66.4	1.4
– Net Position:	-1,768	1,628	140
– Gross Longs:	3,446	13,641	400
– Gross Shorts:	5,214	12,013	260
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.5	7.6	47.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.7	-15.7	28.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

15 Nov

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: Gold heading back towards $2000?

By ForexTime

Gold boosted by fundamental forces

Technical indicators signal further upside

Time for bulls to step into a higher gear?

All eyes on key psychological $2000 level

Gold glittered on Wednesday after jumping over 1% in the previous session.

The precious metal drew strength from a weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields following the softer-than-expected US inflation data on Tuesday.

This data has knocked the probability of another Fed hike to almost zero with traders pricing in a 50-basis point rate cut by July 2024, according to Fed Funds futures.

Given gold’s zero-yielding nature, further gains could be on the cards as expectations rise over the Fed cutting interest rates in 2024. It will be wise to keep a close eye on the incoming US retail sales data among other key reports and speeches by Federal Reserve officials this week which could influence expectations around what the Fed does beyond 2023 – ultimately impacting gold prices.

Focusing on the technical picture, gold could push higher if a daily close above $1968 is achieved.

After rebounding from the 200-day SMA earlier this week, bulls have been armed with the technical and fundamental ammunition to attack the psychological $2000 level once again.

In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has yet to hit overbought conditions – signaling room for further upside.

On the weekly charts, the trend flipped back in favor of bulls in October after prices breached the bearish channel. However, a solid close above the $2000 resistance is needed for bulls to step into a higher gear.

Taking a brief look at the monthly timeframe, prices remain in a very wide range with key resistance at $2000 and support at $1800. It is worth noting that gold has never secured a monthly close above the psychological $2000 level. Given the solid monthly candle in October and strong fundamental drivers supporting bulls, a significant move could be on the horizon.

Redirecting our attention back to the daily timeframe, bulls look to be in a position of power with all eyes on $2000.

A strong daily close above $1968 may open the doors back towards $2000, $2010, and $2018, respectively.
Should prices remain capped below $1968, this could trigger a decline back towards $1945 and $1934 – where the 200-day SMA resides.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Metals

14 Nov

Were Still in a Gold Bull Market

Source: Barry Dawes (11/13/23)

Barry Dawes of Martin Place Securities explains why he believes we are still in a bear market when it comes to gold, despite public sentiment.

Yes, we are still in a bull market for gold, but you wouldn’t know it.

KEY POINTS

Gold

Breached support again
Major support not too far below
Gold in most currencies at or near all time highs

Gold Stocks

Volatility is this sector
Sentiment still very low
Back into support

ASX Gold Stocks

Still working through that RHS

Palladium

Gets hammered
Back into long term support
Sentiment worse than 2015 before subsequent 500% rise!

Stock Markets and Currencies

S&P 500 about to surge
- Bond rally to pickup steam?
- US$ about to surge?

Yen teetering
- Nikkei about to surge
- Yen Gold at all time highs

EURO about to crack as well?
- Gold in Euros about to surge
- German DAX near all time highs
- French CAC in strong uptrend

Yuan still weak
- Shanghai about to surge?
  - 17 year downtrend meets 32 year uptrend
  - What a wedge!
- Gold in Yuan near all time highs
  - back to key support

All Ords in support
- About to run higher?
- Gold in A$ near all time highs
- A$ holding on downtrend

Pankind walkathon for Pancreatic Cancer on 19 November
- Support Sonia Cottee in Canberra walkathon fundraiser

Gold continues to frustrate the bulls and continue to depress small-cap investors in a microcosm that is totally at odds with actions in other world markets.

Gold in most currencies has been making new all time highs and seems ready to run much higher.

That is what you would normally call a bull market!

But you are not feeling it. Sentiment is still so poor. The major currencies seem on the edge of another big decline. The Yen and Euro look very weak, and even small declines from here would suggest major breakdowns ahead.

Economic fundamentals ( whatever that means nowadays) are deteriorating, but stocks are heading higher and seem to want to run very hard to look over the valley and beyond the horizon.

The Israel/Hamas conflict gets stranger by the day, with journalists `embedded’ in the Hamas adventure and the roles being challenged everywhere.

What to believe?

Heed the markets indeed.

What are they telling us?

Apart from yet another US$20 slapdown.

I’m still thinking about this a-b-c pull back into support.

Signs of powerful internal character in gold.

It could come down another US$20.

A lot of long-term support here.

That May 2023 downtrend is there.

And horizontal support.

Another US$20 lower would backtest the breakout and support on that downtrend.

What can you say about this after that fabulous 6% gain on the previous Friday?

Newmont hit the bottom of this wedge.

This ratio goes back to the lower edge.

Really oversold.

Silver

Still building up pressure

Will break to the upside soon

Soonish

Palladium

Hammered!

Five waves down after an irregular `b’ wave
Sentiment as low as 2016 at US$500/oz
2016-2022 gave 500% gain!

Keep in mind the bigger picture is still looking positive for the mining sector.

Currencies, gold, and stock markets.

Is there a pattern here?

US$ is universally expected to crash, but it hasn’t yet and just might not.

Still expecting 155.

Bonds are in the early stages of a big rally

Five waves down completed

And an island reversal

S&P 500 Breaks Downtrend

4600 soon

4800 by year end?

The other currencies tell a slightly different story.

Weak currencies, strong local gold prices, and stock markets that could really surge.

Japanese Yen

At very critical stage
Very ugly chart
Below the Devil’s Number

Gold in Yen

Small pull back from all time highs
Heading much higher

Japan stock market

About break 7-month downtrend
Set to surge much higher

Euro

The Euro broke a 50-year uptrend and provided a goodbye kiss backtest before falling away again.

Closing below 105 would crack the Euro.

Gold in Euros is heading higher in a strong uptrend.

Backtesting 2022 downtrend.

German DAX is just off all time highs.

French CAC is just off all time highs.

Chinese Yuan

Heading lower

Gold in Yuan

Has pulled back from all time high
Into major support

Shanghai Stock Market

Is this about to surge as well?
Same level as 2009
17 year downtrend just about to meet:-
32 Year uptrend
- What a wedge!

Australia

AU$ is weak, but it is holding onto a 12-year downtrend.

AU$ gold is heading higher.

All Ords holding onto uptrend.

The 7700 resistance seems more important to watch than the 15-year uptrend.

Sonia Cottee

A dear friend in Canberra with Stage 4 Pancreatic Cancer.

Walking on November 19 for Pankind — supporting research for Pancreatic Cancer.

Would you like to support a very brave lady?

PYFD 2023 – Canberra | Walk with Soni (putyourfootdown.org.au)

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Financial News Metals

08 Nov

Billion Dollar Players

Source: Michael Ballanger (11/6/23)

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. shares his thoughts on the current state of the stock market, including movements in gold and silver. Ballanger also explains why he believes one uranium stock may be worth your attention.

I used to HATE listening to a local program called Shark Tank, where a group of Canadian “silver spoons” lecture the viewing public exactly WHY they were “so incredibly successful” in their abilities to take great ideas offered by young people and turn them into serious PERSONAL net worth enhancements.

One of the final group of “entrepreneurs” on that program in the early days was none other than Kevin O’Leary, the Canadian entrepreneur who made his fortune pitching The Learning Company (originally founded by O’Leary as “Softkey”) to Mattel Inc. for US$4.2 billion in what was later called “one of the most disastrous corporate acquisitions in recent history” as a US$50 million profit forecast turned into a US$105 million loss wiping out US$3 billion in Mattel’s market cap in a single day.

O’Leary was sued by Mattel and snuck away unscathed, but whether it was fined by Autorité des Marches Financiers for violations of the Securities Act (O’Leary Funds) or lawsuits by partners, he seems to have a habit of becoming embroiled in controversy.

The biggest controversy in a career that began in Toronto as a cat food brand manager for Nabisco came last year when he was cited as a spokesperson for FTX Corp. founded by Sam Bankman-Fried (“SBF”), who was this week convicted of defrauding investors of billions of dollars which were diverted from his crypto exchange to his personal hedge fund (Alameda) which in turn threw millions upon millions of dollars at people like Kevin O’Leary (and Tom Brady, Steph Curry, and supermodel Gisele Bündchen) as well as dozens of U.S. politicians (who have been noticeably reticent in returning any of the money.)

Now that the markets have once again spoken loudly in response to the somewhat dovish tone set out by Chairman Powell last Wednesday, the “Seasonality Trade” that I have been chirping about for the last three weeks looks to have finally arrived.

O’Leary continues to pump various products and services that seem to be on the thin edge of the knife, but for a celebrity pitchman who was seen every other week on BNN or CNBC spouting his esteemed opinion on everything from crypto (which he hated before FTX dumped US$10mm into his burgeoning bank account) to IRS tax tips, his career has now devolved into that of a carnival barker or snake-oil salesman.

Countless times, I have written about how decades of unbridled credit creation and deficit spending have created an environment of total disrespect for the purchasing power of a nation’s currency. No better example of how money corrupts was the recent book by one of my all-time favorite authors, the magnificent storyteller Michael Lewis (“Liar’s Poker,” “The Big Short,” “Boomerang”), chronicling the life of SBF that essentially absolves him of any “malice of intent” in his looting of billions of investor dollars while buying properties, sports teams, and political favor through illegal campaign contributions.

When I read the book (“Going Infinite – The Rise and Fall of a New Tycoon”), I came away horrified that an author who cut his teeth working on Wall Street — who wrote the book on shysters and confident men (and women) — could misread SBF and present him as an absent-minded dreamer with aspirations of saving the world from an “Artificial Intelligence Armageddon.”

This is what happens when money mysteriously shows up on a doorstep, and the finder has no idea how it got there. There is zero respect for what labor hours were required to create it or the identity of the people who originally earned it.

Politicians in Ottawa or Washington or London have zero interest in protecting the purchasing power of the savings of the voters they represent because those voters are more than happy flipping houses in a hot real estate market, and as long as the voter next to you gets hit with a tax increase, and you dodge the CRA or IRS bullet, all is good with the Federal deficit and life goes on.

I watched the cable coverage of the SBF verdict, and the talking heads on CNBC still look at SBF as a cult hero of sorts, with Jim Cramer trying to navigate around the fact that he called SBF “the new J.P. Morgan” back in 2022 but now refers to him as “an idiot,” a “con man,” a “pathological liar” in what has to be the greatest 180-degree opinion reversal in cable TV history.

Our entire culture has become a cultist culture where social media creates a myriad of causes that everyone with a cell phone can champion with little or no regard for consequences. You can sit in your mom’s basement and praise Sam Bankman-Fried for his entrepreneurial talents, and then, with the help of the keypad, delete everything you ever tweeted about the crook and deny you ever heard of him.

You can also call Leafs enforcer Ryan Reeves a “weak-kneed pansy” from the safety of cyberspace, knowing full well you would never say it while standing in front of him. In the era of “schoolyard judgment” in which I was raised, if you said something to someone that was out of line, you assumed that a knuckle sandwich was coming your way, and what that created was a “culture of accountability” in which you only said or did what you could back up. Applying that to today’s credit-addicted world, if politicians and central bankers were held accountable for 9% inflation rates and unaffordable house prices, it would be amazing how quickly the policies of the Bank of Canada or the U.S. Fed would change.

Only because Sam Bankman-Fried got caught did the MSM change their tune; now he is going to jail. Well, policy-makers were caught a year ago when the inflation rate hit 9%, and they are still worshipped, deified, and exalted as if they actually do “God’s work” in trashing domestic currencies the world over. Something is not exactly “right.”

Stocks

When the vast majority of the stock market “gurus” make a good call, they usually begin with the phrase “As I told you last week/month/quarter. . .” and then proceed to brag for the next three paragraphs about how much money they made their clients/subscribers/apostles.

I will not do that.

However, now that the markets have once again spoken loudly in response to the somewhat dovish tone set out by Chairman Powell last Wednesday, the “Seasonality Trade” that I have been chirping about for the last three weeks looks to have finally arrived.

More importantly, the trade that confirms this is the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT:NYSE), which I have owned only for a couple of weeks, having bought it in the US$83 range with 10-year and 30-year yields punching out through 5%.

The 10-year yield hit 5.02% last week before a wicked rally kicked in, taking it right back down to 4.55% by Friday’s close.

The U.S. Dollar index had a huge crash to close out the week, dropping 1.01% to 104.90.

I see a move to the 100-dma at US$93.44 and then up to the 200-dma at US$97.71, with my ultimate objective being “somewhere north of US$100.”

I bought the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY:NYSE) Dec US$445 calls in mid-October before the Israel-Hamas war broke out and elected to stick with them despite some fairly intensive selling in the latter part of the month. Luckily (or brilliantly), I sent out an Email Alert right after the Fed rate decision was announced buying the SPY:NYSE Dec US$425 calls, with the result being a three-day ride from the outhouse to the penthouse and a US$10k loss transforming itself into a US$12k gain.

With corporate buybacks kicking in and earnings season now behind us, it should be (operative word “should”) clear sailing until New Year’s, with the proviso being possible geopolitical flare-ups and/or inflation surprises. If I am right on the TLT:NYSE, I will be very right on the SPY:NYSE trade.

The other risk is that the macro outlook weakens sharply and much faster than the Street expects, but that is unlikely until Q1/2024.

Gold and Silver

After the NFP numbers came out and the U.S. dollar began to tank, December Gold bolted out of the gate to US$2,012 and for a while appeared to be headed for a nice weekly close above US$2,000 but for some ungodly reason (tongue-in-cheek), sellers arrive, and prices leaked all the way to the Comex pit session ending with the weekly settlement price at US$1,999.20.

I fully expected to see a bunch of bullion bank traders thumbing their noses at us from the outer ring, giving each other the “wink, wink, nudge, nudge. Say-no-more, say-no-more” Eric Idle routine from Monty Python days.

I exited the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD:NYSE) trade two weeks ago when it punched above my US$184 target price and continued up to US$186 before correcting back down under US$183. The good news is that silver had an excellent day, closing 2.14% higher versus gold’s 0.32% increase, and as I continue to preach ad nauseam, silver must get into gear and consistently outperform gold for the precious metals rally to sweep both metal and miners higher.

The gold miners had a good day on Friday, with the HUI tacking on 4.31%. I own the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX:NYSEARCA:) and the December US$25 calls and the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares (NUGT:NYSEARCA) and the December US$30 calls all at breakeven prices to close out the week.

Since the miners came down in October acting like “stocks” rather than “gold stocks,” they should (that operative word again) perform in line with the SPY:NYSE (and stock rally) until after New Year’s Day.

New Trade

I have been bullish on uranium since 2017, which means I have seen two rallies, neither of which I traded.

At the start of the year, I came up with the concept of the “Electrification Trilogy,” calling for increases in demand for new sources of electricity (nuclear/uranium), transmission infrastructure (wiring/copper), and electrical storage (batteries/lithium) and while I maintained exposure to copper and lithium, I really only had a small position in one uranium developer forgetting all the while that the best proxy for uranium has to be Cameco Corp. (CCO:TSX; CCJ:NYSE).

While I find it difficult to own any stock after it has nearly doubled, I listened to the conference call this week after they reported blow-out earnings, and what grabbed me by the throat was the forward guidance in which they said: “We are seeing durable, full-cycle demand growth across the nuclear energy industry.”

That is really positive guidance, and with 57 new reactors currently under construction around the globe and with Germany reversing their decision to dismantle three of their power plants, the demand for uranium is going to kick in long before new supply can hit the market.

Accordingly, I decided to bite the bullet and take a punt on a few Cameco March US$40 calls in the US$5.00 range on the assumption that I will see all-time highs above US$46.41 by New Year’s Day and US$50 in Q1/2024.

I know I am late to the party, but with guidance so powerfully bullish and nuclear the only real solution to the global energy problem, I cannot see getting hurt despite the modest overbought conditions it moved into on Friday before backing off.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Cameco Corp.
Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: Cameco Corp. My company has a financial relationship with: Cameco Corp. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Michael Ballanger Disclosures

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

Financial News Metals

06 Nov

Trade of the Week: Gold hovers near $2k ahead of Powell

By ForexTime

Gold kicks off Monday on shaky note amid risk-on mood
Fed speeches + Powell may influence precious metal
Gold bullish but RSI overbought on daily charts
Key levels of interest at $1968, $2000 and $2010

Gold prices have kicked off the new week on a wobbly note despite punching above the psychological $2000 level last Friday.

The precious metal jumped almost $15 within minutes after the US jobs report printed weaker than expected last week. With the US economy adding 150,000 jobs in October compared to the 180,000 forecast, and previous months numbers revised lower – bets jumped around the Fed not raising rates further.

While rising hopes around no more Fed hikes is good news for zero-yielding gold, this has also boosted overall risk sentiment – capping upside gains as investors shop for riskier assets.

Nevertheless, gold is still up more than 8% since the Hamas attacks on Israel with prices hovering near the psychological $2000 level. Taking a quick look at the technical picture, prices are bullish on the weekly charts but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slowly approaching overbought conditions.

Zooming out on the monthly chart, prices remain in a very wide range with key resistance at $2000 and support at $1800.

Fun fact: Gold has never secured a monthly close above the psychological $2000 level.

Although this is a much quieter week on the risk calendar, some events could impact gold over the next few days:

Fed speeches + Powell

The week is jampacked with speeches from numerous Fed speakers, including Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday.

Investors will be looking for fresh clues on the Fed’s interest rate path, especially when considering how the central bank has not fully ruled out future hikes. While Powell has dropped hints about the Fed done with hikes, he has also warned that there was still much work to be done on inflation.

After last Friday’s jobs report, the probability of a Fed rate hike in December is now at single digits. Interestingly, traders have priced in a rate cut by June 2024.

Gold prices may edge higher if Powell and Co. adopt a dovish tone and hint that the Fed is done with hikes. However, gains could be capped if these remarks support risk sentiment.
Any unexpected hawkish cues from Fed speeches that spark a rebound in dollar and Treasury yields may drag gold prices away from the psychological $2000 level.

Geopolitical risks

Ongoing tensions in the Middle East remain a major element of uncertainty for global markets.

Should fears intensify over a potential spillover from the Israel-Hamas conflict, this could spark a fresh wave of risk aversion, sending investors towards safe-haven destinations like gold. It’s not only the developments in the Middle East but also Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that could fan fears about a global recession. Although the focus seems to have shifted back towards interest rates, geopolitics may play a role in shaping gold’s outlook.

Should tensions in the Middle East hit risk sentiment, this could provide room for gold to push higher.
Any fresh signs of easing geopolitical tensions could boost overall risk sentiment, dragging gold lower as a result.

Technical forces: breakout?

There seems to be a fierce tug of war around the $2000 level as bulls and bears fight for control.

The scales of power swing in favour of bulls on the daily charts with technical indicators signalling further upside. Prices are above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA while the MACD is trading above zero. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals that prices are overbought on the daily timeframe. Key support can be found around $1968 with resistance at $2010 but the pivotal level remains at $2000.

A strong daily close above $2000 may provide the foundation for bulls to target $2010 and $2018, respectively.
Should prices remain capped below $2000, this could trigger a decline back towards $1968 and $1945.

Currently, Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 76% chance that Gold will trade within the $1956.63 – $2024.73 range this week.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Metals

05 Nov

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Gold & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (14,040 contracts) with Platinum (11,306 contracts), Copper (3,599 contracts), Steel (2,869 contracts) and Palladium (987 contracts) also coming along with positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Silver with a decrease of -4,121 contracts on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	475,808	25	163,425	49	-182,707	53	19,282	31
Copper	222,566	60	-17,161	16	18,395	87	-1,234	11
Silver	126,549	15	20,211	47	-33,139	54	12,928	38
Platinum	74,768	65	10,826	41	-14,186	64	3,360	13
Palladium	22,943	100	-10,253	8	10,163	92	90	47

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (89 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Gold (49 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (8.2 percent) and Copper (16 percent) are at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (49.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (42.8 percent)
Silver (47.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (53.0 percent)
Copper (16.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.9 percent)
Platinum (40.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (14.5 percent)
Palladium (8.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (1.7 percent)
Steel (89.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (77.9 percent)

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (12 percent) and Steel (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (7 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Copper (-1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (12.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (11.2 percent)
Silver (7.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (9.0 percent)
Copper (-0.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-7.3 percent)
Platinum (1.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-16.6 percent)
Palladium (-0.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-3.5 percent)
Steel (10.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 163,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,040 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 149,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.9	22.3	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	60.7	5.4
– Net Position:	163,425	-182,707	19,282
– Gross Longs:	261,053	105,971	44,792
– Gross Shorts:	97,628	288,678	25,510
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.0	53.4	31.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-11.5	4.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,121 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,332 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	32.0	20.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	58.1	10.2
– Net Position:	20,211	-33,139	12,928
– Gross Longs:	48,025	40,441	25,863
– Gross Shorts:	27,814	73,580	12,935
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	53.7	38.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.1	-4.1	-9.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	36.4	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	28.1	7.2
– Net Position:	-17,161	18,395	-1,234
– Gross Longs:	69,909	81,000	14,745
– Gross Shorts:	87,070	62,605	15,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.0	86.9	10.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	5.0	-32.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 10,826 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -480 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.2	22.6	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.8	41.6	5.1
– Net Position:	10,826	-14,186	3,360
– Gross Longs:	44,291	16,925	7,145
– Gross Shorts:	33,465	31,111	3,785
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.6	64.1	13.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	0.9	-17.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	51.9	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.9	7.6	7.5
– Net Position:	-10,253	10,163	90
– Gross Longs:	5,096	11,915	1,807
– Gross Shorts:	15,349	1,752	1,717
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	6.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.2	91.8	47.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-1.3	13.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,600 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,469 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	76.7	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.7	62.6	1.7
– Net Position:	-2,600	2,531	69
– Gross Longs:	3,103	13,774	380
– Gross Shorts:	5,703	11,243	311
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.3	11.2	39.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-11.5	39.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

03 Nov

Canadian Mining Co. An Immediate Speculative Buy

Source: Clive Maund (11/2/23)

Technical Analyst Clive Maund takes a look at Collective Mining’s 6-month chart to tell you why now is the time to buy this stock.

Collective Mining Ltd. (CNL:TSXV) is rated an Immediate Strong Speculative Buy as close to the open this morning as possible. Its chart is looking very positive and the news came out that it has drilled its best hole to date.

On its latest 6-month chart below, we can see that when it broke down in September and tumbled along with many other gold and silver stocks, its Accumulation line held up well and has even been making new highs. This bodes well for recovery, even without the good news just out.

Right now, it appears to be at the second low of a Double Bottom with the strong Accumulation line already mentioned, still rising 200-day moving average, and positive divergence of momentum (MACD), all pointing to imminent recovery.

Collective Mining is therefore rated an Immediate Strong Speculative Buy as close to the open as possible.

Collective Mining’s website.

Collective Mining Ltd. closed at CA$4.46, $3.19 on October 27, 2023. Collective Mining is thinly traded on the US OTC market, where limit orders should always be employed.

_{Originally posted at Clivemaund.com at 9.25 EDT on October 30, 2023.}

Important Disclosures:

Clive Maund: I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Clivemaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

Financial News Metals

02 Nov

One US Graphite Stock Should Benefit From China’s Exports Controls

Source: Clive Maund (11/1/23)

With Western companies attempting to compete with Chinese graphite, Technical Analyst Clive Maund takes a look at one graphite stock he believes is an Immediate Buy.

There was a big flurry of activity in graphite stocks on Friday, and the reason for this was that China has imposed export controls on graphite, which means that countries like Canada and the U.S. will have to look elsewhere to secure supplies — the U.S., in particular, will be impacted because it is by far the biggest importer of Chinese graphite so this news is a big deal as China produces two-thirds of the world’s graphite so clearly China — after being provoked — is adopting a “hit ’em where it hurts” approach.

Demand for graphite is rapidly growing due to its use in electric vehicle batteries and other energy storage applications so its price is likely to ramp up significantly, which will be good news for non-Chinese producers. Current production of graphite in the U.S. is non-existent, but Graphite One has a sizeable deposit that it is working on bringing to production.

As it says on the company’s website . . . “The Graphite Creek Property, located on the Seward Peninsula in western Alaska about 60 kilometers north of Nome, has been discovered to hold America’s highest grade large flake graphite deposit, with 10.95 million tonnes of measured and indicated resources at a grade of 7.8% that could yield as much as 850,000 tonnes of contained graphite material.

Overall, an assumed 44 million tonnes of graphite mineralization at 7% contained graphite (Cg) available to be mined from the company’s Graphite Creek Property could support a project life of 40 years, producing 60,000 tonnes per year of graphite concentrate at 95% Cg with an 80% yield. In response to the news about China, a number of graphite stocks posted big gains on Friday, notably South Star Battery Metals Corp. (STS:TSX.V; STSBF:OTCBB), which surged 24% on huge volume and NextSource Materials Inc. (NEXT:TSX;NSRCF:OTCQB), which shot up by 28% again on huge volume.

NEXT closed well off its highs, but the chart looks very bullish, so the only reason that it closed well off its highs was due to trapped earlier buyers who weren’t aware of the news dumping onto the higher price. So, it is expected to forge ahead and is also rated an Immediate Buy.

The gain in Graphite One Inc. (GPH:TSX.V) was more modest at 7.7%, but it was on the strongest volume since July, and so it is expected to “join the party,” which is why we are looking at it here. Now, let’s look at its charts.

Starting with the 20-year chart, we see that the company has been around for a long time and started trading back in 2007. Its performance — up to now — has been unimpressive as although there have been some tradable wild swings, it is still well down on its price in 2007.

In mid-2020, it broke out of a huge bullish Falling Wedge pattern that had formed over many years and proceeded to advance until late 2021 before rolling over again and dropping. This advance included a couple of big spikes, which are characteristic of this stock that could work to our advantage if it does another of them soon.

Zooming in via the 5-year chart, we see that the retreat from late 2021 high brought it back to a zone of strong support in the CA$0.90 – CA$1.00 area, which generated another short-lived spike early this year before it came rattling back down to the support again which it has just arrived at, and given the price / volume action on Friday and the important news that triggered it, it is very well placed to do another spike and this time, given that the news is “game-changing,” the spike could be bigger than previous ones and more of the gains resulting from it could stick.

Lastly, looking at the 1-year chart, we see that the decline from the highs last February – March has taken the form of a fairly orderly downtrend channel, and the interesting thing is that, in addition to bringing the price down closer to the strong support mentioned in the last paragraph, it has also brought it down close to the lower boundary of the broad downtrend channel so that it is currently substantially oversold relative to its now flat 200-day moving average, which increases snapback potential.

This month’s new low was not confirmed by momentum (MACD), which has shown a positive divergence, and Friday’s gain on the biggest upside volume since July was clearly a bullish development, especially given the strong performance of other stocks across the sector.

Graphite One is therefore considered to be most attractive here and rated a Strong Buy. While there is overhead resistance on the way up, its effect should be mitigated by the abrupt change of sentiment resulting from the news out of China, meaning that it could do a big spike anyway, resistance or not.

Graphite One’s website.

Graphite One closed at CA$1.12, $0.83 on October 20, 2023.

_{Originally posted at Clivemaund.com at 5:00 pm EDT on October 22, 2023.}

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Graphite One Inc.
The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Clivemaund.com Disclosures

Financial News Metals

29 Oct

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Gold

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Metals Speculator Bets led higher by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (36,647 contracts) with Copper (5,129 contracts), Silver (4,586 contracts), Steel (297 contracts) and Palladium (255 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets this week was Platinum with a small decrease of -829 contracts.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	463,476	19	149,385	43	-165,873	60	16,488	22
Copper	224,704	62	-20,760	13	21,401	89	-641	14
Silver	123,980	12	24,332	53	-34,570	52	10,238	23
Platinum	84,610	93	-480	14	-4,832	83	5,312	39
Palladium	22,459	100	-11,240	2	11,085	98	155	51

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (77 percent) and Silver (53 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (43 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (2 percent), Copper (13 percent) and Platinum (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (42.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (26.7 percent)
Silver (53.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (46.4 percent)
Copper (12.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (8.5 percent)
Platinum (14.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (16.4 percent)
Palladium (1.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (77.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (76.3 percent)

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (11 percent) and Silver (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-17 percent) currently leads the downside trend scores with Copper (-7 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (11.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (-11.1 percent)
Silver (9.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-10.1 percent)
Copper (-7.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-16.5 percent)
Platinum (-16.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-32.9 percent)
Palladium (-3.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-3.1 percent)
Steel (-1.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (-5.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 149,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 36,647 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,738 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.3	22.9	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	58.7	5.5
– Net Position:	149,385	-165,873	16,488
– Gross Longs:	251,469	106,180	42,129
– Gross Shorts:	102,084	272,053	25,641
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	59.9	22.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-8.1	-11.6

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 24,332 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.8	30.9	19.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	58.8	10.7
– Net Position:	24,332	-34,570	10,238
– Gross Longs:	51,860	38,321	23,527
– Gross Shorts:	27,528	72,891	13,289
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.0	52.0	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-3.1	-21.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -20,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.0	39.6	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	30.1	6.9
– Net Position:	-20,760	21,401	-641
– Gross Longs:	71,848	88,951	14,933
– Gross Shorts:	92,608	67,550	15,574
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.9	89.4	14.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	9.5	-19.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -480 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.4	27.8	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.0	33.5	4.6
– Net Position:	-480	-4,832	5,312
– Gross Longs:	46,048	23,554	9,166
– Gross Shorts:	46,528	28,386	3,854
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.5	83.5	39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.6	15.6	-4.8

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,495 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	56.9	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.4	7.6	7.6
– Net Position:	-11,240	11,085	155
– Gross Longs:	4,800	12,783	1,852
– Gross Shorts:	16,040	1,698	1,697
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	7.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.7	97.6	51.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	2.0	12.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,469 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 297 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,766 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	83.2	1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.6	57.0	1.6
– Net Position:	-5,469	5,571	-102
– Gross Longs:	2,300	17,678	246
– Gross Shorts:	7,769	12,107	348
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.5	23.4	21.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	1.5	5.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

25 Oct

Copper Cacophony

Source: Michael Ballanger (10/23/23)

With lots of noise surrounding the Electrification Movement, Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. shares what he believes is really going on, as well as two stocks that may be worth looking into.

The big news for the past month has been the superb performance of the gold market, which, as of today’s earlier high print at US$2,009, was ahead 10.17% since the lows of October 6^, making it one of the most powerful moves of the year. It has all of my gold bug buddies dancing in the streets, oblivious to the ravaging effect of rising mortgage rates and the horrific events in the Middle East.

Mind you, I cannot tell you how horrified I was to see a pick-up truck full of young people riding around Toronto blaring horns and cheering the actions of Hamas last weekend. However, for this septuagenarian scribe, it is the rattle and din — the cacophony — of noise surrounding the copper market that had me scratching my head.

I cannot pick up a magazine (or click on a website) these days without reading multiple paragraphs on the “new energy economy” that is arriving this decade that excludes ICE’s and replaces them with EV’s. I have fully embraced the notion of an electrically powered world where the cleanest of all energy sources — nuclear power — boosts global electrical output by many multiples, leaving literally nothing of harm in its wake.

I accept the proposition that the world is going to need to amplify its electrical storage capacity and, in doing so, increase demand and usage of battery elements — cobalt, nickel, and lithium.

The world market for elements such as uranium and lithium has also recognized the oncoming tsunami of demand by re-pricing both of them to multi-year highs as stockpiling has begun in earnest as governments move to re-classify them as “critical metals.” The narrative surrounding the “Electrification Movement” and the three main metals constituting the “electrification trilogy” is filled with a plethora of “noise” — scatterbrained snippets of inane opinions and theories both bullish and bearish and always rebutted forcefully by those cretins in the oil and gas industry that sit back and howl with laughter at the legions of “greenies” and “libtards” that actually believe that gas stations will have disappeared by 2030.

Between the Gen-Z-ers gluing themselves to highways and the U.S. government emptying the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in order to teach Vlad the Impaler a lesson, the entire narrative surrounding the move to increase the electricity grid is one giant cacophony of disjointed arguments.

However, if there is one conundrum that baffles me, it is the copper market. Markets pronounced their verdicts on the likelihood of a successful transition to electric by way of a massive move in prices for lithium carbonate, advancing twelvefold from mid-2020 to late 2022.

Lithium

Likewise, markets seem to buy into the prospect of attitudes toward nuclear energy changing for the better as uranium prices have moved from sub-US$20/lb. to over US$73/lb. Between late 2017 and late 2022, but nowhere near the highs of 2009 at almost US$135/lb.

Uranium

Glancing at the charts of two of the three critical materials required for the electrification transition to occur, you would conclude that those markets have reacted to the certainty of accelerated demand and probable shortage conditions to boot.

A take-it-to-the-bank lay-up, you say?

Not so fast when you look at the chart of the one metal that makes it all possible — copper.

Copper

I ask myself a critical question: “How can investors take the new clean energy source metal (uranium) and the energy storage metal (lithium) to record highs and leave the metal necessary in the transmission of electricity (copper) behind and in a bear market?”

They say copper is responding to the prospect of lower growth brought about by higher interest rates. They point to debt-ridden property giants in China curtailing purchases typically intended for new construction projects as the reason that there was a 50% increase in LME inventories last month. Yet, looming behind all of this short-term noise are reports from the IEA and the International Copper Association that project a 26% increase in supply by 2035, which is sharply below the 50% increase in anticipated demand.

From my vantage point, you cannot have large sovereigns stockpiling uranium and lithium today while ignoring copper because of the short-term cacophony of possible price restraints. If the world fails to revise the permitting process allowing the unimpeded construction of new, high-capacity copper mines, there is going to be a problem. More importantly, if the capital markets continue to treat copper like the freckle-faced, misbehaving brat in the corner of the classroom, investors will continue to be wary of making new investments in junior exploration and development companies that are always the originators of the world’s new “discoveries of merit” that grow to supply the world with the ores so critical to the human condition.

This is precisely why it all must change, and that change will begin with a turn in the price trend for copper. I have never been able to hear the crack of a starter’s pistol at the beginning of a bull market, and I doubt that there will be anything closely resembling one this time around. However, it seems to me, as plain as the nose on one’s face, that copper will be in shortage conditions between now and 2025 with the severity growing exponentially as the fifty-seven nuclear reactors currently under construction around the world are fired up.

Gold (and Silver)!

After major rallies in gold or stocks or Bitcoin or anything, for that matter, the Twitterverse is always littered with thousands of tweets by individuals taking credit for calling the exact bottom. Well, for gold, here is the chart I posted on October 3, the day before VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX:NYSEARCA:) bottomed into an RSI of 26.79 and a price of US$25.62. Thirteen days later, and at 11:29 this morning, it hit US$30.16.

It was a superb call but one that has been very rare in this bear market year.

As the saying goes: “You have to be good to be lucky (and vice-versa)…”

SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD:NYSE) was bought at US$172.50 on Canadian Thanksgiving Monday with the GLD December US$170 calls bought on a scale-in order during the week of October 9-12.

I backed away from the Friday gap and instead filled the final 20% into the Monday pullback resulting in an average price of CA$7.78 per contract. This morning, the GLD:US exploded up into overhead resistance with a print up to US$185.23 but I established a target price of US$184.00 and told subscribers that only a move through that level — the July highs — would take the RSI into “overbought” conditions, which it did, on a move to 71.52 before backing off.

The Twitterverse was inundated with words like “shenanigans,” “slammies,” and “manipulations,” but the reality was that gold was simply overbought this morning, and because of that, I put out “Sell” on the remaining 50% at US$16.00 which when added to the US$14.75 I got yesterday, gave me an average sell price of US$15.375 versus the average cost of US$7.78 resulting in a 97.6% return in under two weeks.

I put out a note this morning that showed this chart:

You will notice that gold moves in an inverse direction to interest rates, and that is not really much of a surprise to anyone who follows the gold market. You can see how gold went into a prolonged decline at the exact point where the 10-year yield started its ascent from the 3.30% level back in April, but in and around the start of October, that negative correlation ended, and gold and yields have been rising in tandem ever since.

Now, everybody with a keyboard and a Twitter membership has been explaining in torrid detail the reasons for gold’s explosive move, but if there is one thing about gold that the “younguns” do not seem to grasp, it is that gold, unlike everything else on the planet, has an uncanny predictive ability. The reasons it goes up or down are usually only revealed later and are never the reasons given on Kitco or anywhere else in the mainstream media, for that matter.

Gold moved up US$60 per ounce on Friday, October 6, giving rise to speculation that someone was “front-running” knowledge of the impeding Hamas invasion. When gold bottomed in mid-March 2020, neither the global central bankers nor the elected leaders had said anything about trillion-dollar bailouts or helicopter cash drops to households around the world.

Gold sniffed it out and it was only months later, after it had rallied from US$1,450 to US$2,089 that the world learned of the sheer magnitude of the monetary and fiscal stimulus packages that were thrown with reckless abandon at what turned out to be a nasty little flu bug and not the second coming of Ebola or the Bubonic Plague.

Something has changed in the gold market, and I am the first to admit that I know not of its origin. All I know is that when gold moves in a manner that is unorthodox, all I can do is apply my rudimentary knowledge of technical analysis coupled with ample doses of prayer, rabbit’s feet, four-leaf clovers, and Haitian Death Chants and hope to hell that I am on the right side.

Gold goes wherever it wants to go. If we are lucky, we find out the reason weeks or months later.

Notice how silver was lagging gold through the last six months, down 14.77% to gold’s 5.47% decline.

Suddenly and with little warning, silver started to outperform gold, and as one of my most reliable indications of the health (or frailty) of any bull market in the precious metals, the silver market is now officially ahead of gold for the October monthly performance.

If this continues into month-end and on into November, I expect to see gold at new all-time highs and silver well into the US$30s. I am not yet adding to my silver miners, having added Norseman Silver Ltd. (NOC:TSX.V; NOCSF:OTCQB) earlier in the month, but they are now officially on my radar screen, starting with Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS:TSX; PAAS:NASDAQ) as a possible option play.

Stocks

I own a modest position in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY:NYSE) and told everyone this week that while I am betting on a year-end rally to take the SPY:US to between US$452 and US$457, my abort button is programmed to activate the moment the U.S. 10-year prints 5.25%.

It went out at 4.917% after trading up to 4.999% this morning. If this spike in long rates does not soon abate, I cannot see stocks mounting an advance into year-end and fear a 2018-type decline instead, which would not be fun.

The week ended with me enjoying something that has been annoyingly elusive in 2023. It is called a “capital gain“. If it were not for some fortuitous trades in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY:NYSE) and GLD:US markets this year, I would be lamenting a pitiable performance in many of the junior miners I own.

To be absolutely clear, I do not need to hear that I should not worry “because everyone else has been demolished, too,” as a panacea for my junior gold and silver portfolio. The next time I hear that insincere babble, I am reaching for my Louisville Slugger that stays at all times beside my Hockey-Night-in-Canada chair with the vibrating backrest.

Forewarned is forearmed…

Important Disclosures:

Norseman Silver Ltd. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000.
As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Norseman Silver Ltd. and Pan American Silver Corp.
Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Michael Ballanger Disclosures

Metals Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Metals – Page 14

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Steel Futures Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Gold glittered on Wednesday after jumping over 1% in the previous session.

This data has knocked the probability of another Fed hike to almost zero with traders pricing in a 50-basis point rate cut by July 2024, according to Fed Funds futures.

After rebounding from the 200-day SMA earlier this week, bulls have been armed with the technical and fundamental ammunition to attack the psychological $2000 level once again.

A strong daily close above $1968 may open the doors back towards $2000, $2010, and $2018, respectively.

Should prices remain capped below $1968, this could trigger a decline back towards $1945 and $1934 – where the 200-day SMA resides.

KEY POINTS

Gold

Gold Stocks

ASX Gold Stocks

Palladium

Stock Markets and Currencies

Silver

Palladium

S&P 500 Breaks Downtrend

Japanese Yen

Gold in Yen

Japan stock market

Euro

Chinese Yuan

Gold in Yuan

Shanghai Stock Market

Australia

Sonia Cottee

Stocks

Gold and Silver

New Trade

Gold prices have kicked off the new week on a wobbly note despite punching above the psychological $2000 level last Friday.

While rising hopes around no more Fed hikes is good news for zero-yielding gold, this has also boosted overall risk sentiment – capping upside gains as investors shop for riskier assets.

Fun fact: Gold has never secured a monthly close above the psychological $2000 level.

Fed speeches + Powell

Geopolitical risks

Technical forces: breakout?

Currently, Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 76% chance that Gold will trade within the $1956.63 – $2024.73 range this week.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Platinum

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Steel Futures Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Metals Speculator Bets led higher by Gold

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend