Forex and Currency News

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 98

Trade Of The Week: Big Week For Dollar As NFP Looms

– The mighty dollar has been an unstoppable force this year, crushing all obstacles with the destructive force of a wrecking ball. G10 currencies were practically pulverized by the greenback’s dominance with the pound shedding roughly 17% and yen over 20%.

After hitting a fresh 20-year high above 114.50 last week, the Dollar Index (DXY) tumbled thanks to a sharp recovery in the euro & pound. Given how the euro makes over 55% and the pound more than 10% of the DXY weighting, any further recovery in both currencies may influence the index’s direction in the short term.

We also saw some action on the equally-weighted dollar index which failed to secure a weekly close above 1.2800.

Despite the weakness witnessed last week, dollar bulls remain in the driving seat with the fundamentals keeping the engines healthy and running smoothly. However, a fresh catalyst could be needed for bulls to switch into higher gear in the weak ahead…and this could be the highly anticipated US jobs report on Friday.

Taking a quick look at the technical picture, prices remain bullish on the weekly charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. The DXY could make a new higher low before pushing higher or simply push back above 114.50 to test 114.73 and beyond.

The low down…

King dollar continues to feast on aggressive rate hike bets and global recession fears.

Last week, a chorus of Fed speakers struck an almost universally hawkish note on rate hikes. We saw the 10-year Treasury move above 4% for the first time since 2008, fuelled by expectations for the Fed to launch more monetary bazookas. As concerns intensified over the hawkish policies by global central banks sparking a recession, investors turned to the dollar as a shelter of safety.

As the first month of Q4 gets underway, dollar bulls have kicked off on a shaky start. Although it has weakened against most currencies, it is still early days. Traders are predicting a 66% probability of a 75-basis point rate hike in November. If this becomes reality, that would mark the fourth consecutive jumbo-sized 75 bp rate hike in 2022 against the inflation menace. Such a move could inject dollar bulls with renewed inspiration but investors may be more concerned with what happens beyond November and the New year.

Ahead of the Fed’s next policy meeting next month, key US economic data and speeches from Fed officials may influence expectations over how aggressive rates are hiked. Given how the dollar remains highly sensitive to speculation around hikes, this could translate to volatility over the next few weeks.

The week ahead…

It’s all about the US jobs report on Friday.

The consensus expects the US economy to have created 250k jobs in September which comes after a fifth straight beat in August. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 3.7% while wage growth is seen hitting 0.3%. If the pending jobs data meets or exceeds market expectations, this may reinforce bets over the Fed moving ahead with a 75 basis point rate hike in November. Alternatively, a soft jobs report may reduce the odds of another jumbo- rate hike – weakening the dollar while supporting equity markets.

It may be wise to keep a close eye on the numerous speeches from Fed officials throughout the week. If Fed speakers remain hawkish and signal more aggressive hikes, this could keep dollar bulls hydrated ahead of the US jobs report. On the other hand, any hint of doves may see dollar bears enter the scene.

Dollar set to rebound?

After failing to secure a weekly close above 1.2800, the equally-weighted dollar index has edged slightly lower. Nevertheless, the fundamentals remain in favour of bulls and this could limit downside losses.

Bulls need to push back above 1.2800, to open a path back towards 1.2880 and higher. Sustained weakness below 1.2800 may open the doors towards 1.2500 and 1.2184.

Should 1.2500 prove to be reliable support, a rebound back towards 1.2800 could be a possibility.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

01 Oct

Currency Speculators reduced British Pound bearish bets after GBPUSD record low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 27th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British pound sterling & Australian dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British pound sterling (8,419 contracts) and the Australian dollar (5,903 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (2,631 contracts), the Brazilian real (1,395 contracts), the New Zealand dollar (1,118 contracts), the Swiss franc (1,010 contracts), Bitcoin(447 contracts) and the Euro (348 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Canadian dollar (-19,722 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-13,289 contracts) with the Japanese yen (-1,276 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators cut bearish bets in Sterling after record low, UK budget upends markets

Highlighting the COT Currencies data is the gains in speculator positions for the British pound sterling. The sterling speculator positioning this week (through Tuesday) rose by more than +8,000 net speculator contracts and follows last week’s rise by over +13,000 contracts. This has cut the overall bearish position by more than 21,000 contracts in two weeks. Previously, the speculative position had fallen for three straight weeks and dropped to the lowest speculator standing in fourteen weeks. The speculator positioning has now been in a bearish level for 32 consecutive weeks, dating back to February 15th.

This was an interesting week for the sterling and the United Kingdom markets in general as a government announcement of a new budget (and tax cut) created havoc and volatility across markets. The news sent UK bonds into a tailspin and created financial ripple effects in stocks, mortgages and pension funds. The sterling also nose-dived sharply and slipped all the way to a new record low versus the US dollar at approximately the 1.0362 exchange rate on Monday. An emergency Bank of England bond-buying program soothed the markets and helped sterling bounce from the lows of Monday to finish the week higher by over 2.50 percent.

Overall in the big picture, the current sterling speculative positioning (at -46,424 contracts) is, like the Euro, relatively tame considering where the currency price resides (near record lows). The 2022 weekly average position for GBP is -44,153 contracts which shows that traders are not extremely bearish despite the exchange rate level. The next few weeks will give the markets important insights into whether the Bank of England has managed to stem the slide in sterling or if, like the Bank of Japan’s recent record yen intervention, the GBP retests its multi-decade lows against the dollar.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-27-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	56,046	80	30,562	76	-32,482	24	1,920	38
EUR	654,142	61	33,797	45	-58,440	59	24,643	15
GBP	281,805	87	-46,424	29	65,217	78	-18,793	8
JPY	244,655	77	-82,556	18	100,633	85	-18,077	17
CHF	44,492	30	-5,730	42	16,898	70	-11,168	20
CAD	140,889	24	-17,666	20	21,707	87	-4,041	22
AUD	152,301	46	-34,653	53	47,998	55	-13,345	20
NZD	45,240	34	-11,471	50	15,072	55	-3,601	10
MXN	173,045	37	-41,322	10	37,998	89	3,324	57
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	55,930	48	33,764	84	-35,031	17	1,267	80
Bitcoin	14,271	82	1,024	95	-1,221	0	197	17

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Bitcoin (94.8 percent) and the Brazilian Real (83.6 percent) lead the currency markets at the top of their respective ranges and are both in bullish extreme positions. The US Dollar Index (75.9 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (9.7 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the Japanese Yen (18.0 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (19.5 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (75.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (71.5 percent)
EuroFX (45.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (45.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (29.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (21.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (18.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (18.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (42.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (39.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (19.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (41.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (52.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (47.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (50.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (48.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (9.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (83.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (82.2 percent)
Bitcoin (94.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (87.0 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Brazilian Real (26.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (23.5 percent), the Australian Dollar (22.8 percent) and Bitcoin (19.5 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-50.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the Japanese Yen (-33.1 percent) followed by the New Zealand Dollar (-23.0 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-12.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-17.9 percent)
EuroFX (23.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (20.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-11.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-17.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-33.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-34.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (7.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-50.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-21.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (22.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (15.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-23.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-21.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (-8.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-0.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (26.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (30.1 percent)
Bitcoin (19.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (14.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.6	3.8	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	61.8	6.4
– Net Position:	30,562	-32,482	1,920
– Gross Longs:	47,424	2,153	5,481
– Gross Shorts:	16,862	34,635	3,561
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.9	24.2	37.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.3	13.0	-8.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 33,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.9	53.3	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	62.2	8.2
– Net Position:	33,797	-58,440	24,643
– Gross Longs:	208,736	348,374	78,547
– Gross Shorts:	174,939	406,814	53,904
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	59.4	15.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.5	-22.5	4.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -46,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,843 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	69.3	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	46.1	14.2
– Net Position:	-46,424	65,217	-18,793
– Gross Longs:	59,831	195,244	21,327
– Gross Shorts:	106,255	130,027	40,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.2	78.4	8.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	12.2	-10.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -82,556 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,280 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	80.1	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.0	39.0	16.2
– Net Position:	-82,556	100,633	-18,077
– Gross Longs:	22,706	195,930	21,476
– Gross Shorts:	105,262	95,297	39,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.0	84.7	16.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.1	28.6	-10.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,740 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	63.4	19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	25.4	44.2
– Net Position:	-5,730	16,898	-11,168
– Gross Longs:	7,681	28,196	8,500
– Gross Shorts:	13,411	11,298	19,668
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.0	70.4	19.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.6	5.2	-9.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,722 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	53.4	21.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	38.0	24.1
– Net Position:	-17,666	21,707	-4,041
– Gross Longs:	33,677	75,267	29,978
– Gross Shorts:	51,343	53,560	34,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.5	86.8	22.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-50.0	44.9	-18.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -34,653 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,903 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,556 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	61.0	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.4	29.4	19.9
– Net Position:	-34,653	47,998	-13,345
– Gross Longs:	39,006	92,836	16,982
– Gross Shorts:	73,659	44,838	30,327
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.7	54.7	19.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.8	-11.6	-22.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,589 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.2 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	67.1	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.5	33.8	13.5
– Net Position:	-11,471	15,072	-3,601
– Gross Longs:	12,287	30,343	2,489
– Gross Shorts:	23,758	15,271	6,090
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.3	55.1	10.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.0	23.6	-18.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -41,322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,033 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.7	44.5	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.6	22.6	1.9
– Net Position:	-41,322	37,998	3,324
– Gross Longs:	87,723	77,061	6,626
– Gross Shorts:	129,045	39,063	3,302
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	88.6	57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	8.4	-1.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 33,764 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,395 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.6	23.1	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	85.7	3.4
– Net Position:	33,764	-35,031	1,267
– Gross Longs:	39,486	12,907	3,161
– Gross Shorts:	5,722	47,938	1,894
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.6	17.1	79.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.8	-25.7	-10.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,024 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 577 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	83.4	0.4	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.2	9.0	6.1
– Net Position:	1,024	-1,221	197
– Gross Longs:	11,902	64	1,061
– Gross Shorts:	10,878	1,285	864
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.8	5.2	17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.5	-46.7	-3.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

30 Sep

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 30.09.2022 (USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming an Engulfing reversal pattern close to the support level, USDCAD is reversing in the form of a new ascending wave. In this case, the upside target may be at 1.3900. Later, the market may break the resistance area and continue growing. However, an alternative scenario implies that the asset may correct to reach 1.3600 first and then resume the uptrend.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, AUDUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the support area. At the moment, the asset is reversing in the form of a new correctional impulse. In this case, the upside correctional target may be the resistance level at 0.6550. After testing the level, the price may rebound from it and resume the descending tendency. At the same time, the opposite scenario implies that the price may fall to reach 0.6365 and continue the downtrend without any pullbacks up to resistance level.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern not far from the support area. At the moment, USDCHF may reverse in the form of a new ascending wave. In this case, the upside target may be the resistance level at 0.9860. After testing this level, the price may break it and continue trading upwards. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, in which the asset may correct to reach 0.9680 first and then resume the ascending tendency.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

30 Sep

Murrey Math Lines 30.09.2022 (Brent, S&P 500)

Article By RoboForex.com

BRENT

As we can see in the H4 chart, Brent is trading below the 200-day Moving Average it to indicate a possible descending tendency. The Relative Strength Index has broken the ascending trendline to the downside. In this case, the pair is expected to break 4/8 (87.50) and continue falling towards the support at 2/8 (81.20). However, this scenario may be cancelled if the price breaks the resistance at 5/8 (90.62) to the upside. After that, the instrument may move upwards to reach 6/8 (93.75)./p>

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue its decline.

S&P 500

As we can see in the H4 chart, the S&P 500 index is trading inside the “oversold area”. The Relative Strength Index is testing 30, confirming that the asset is oversold. In this case, the price is expected to break 0/8 (3750.0) and continue moving upwards to reach the resistance at 1/8 (3906.2). However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the support at -1/8 (3593.8) to the downside. After that, the instrument may continue to fall towards -2/8 (3437.5).

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue trading upwards.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

30 Sep

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.09.30

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 0.9737
Prev Close: 0.9814
% chg. over the last day: +1.48 %

Four European Central Bank officials on Thursday supported another significant interest rate hike, with arguments in favor of a 75 basis point interest rate hike in October. Inflation data showed yesterday that German consumer prices reached their highest level in decades. On an annualized basis, the inflation rate reached 10%, up from 7.4% in the previous month. In Spain, on the other hand, the numbers were more positive. Spain’s annual inflation rate declined from 10.5% to 9.0%. Inflation data will be released today in France, Italy, and the Eurozone. Analysts expect consumer prices in Europe to rise from 9.1% to 9.7% on an annualized basis.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 0.9666, 0.9601
Resistance levels: 0.9808, 0.9865, 0.9949, 1.0111, 1.0162, 1.0230

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish, but the price has approached the priority change level. The MACD indicator is in the positive area, and the buyers’ pressure remains. It is better to look for sell deals from the resistance level of 0.9808 or 0.9865. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 0.9666 or 0.9601, but only with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the resistance level of 0.9808 and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.30:

– Eurozone German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone French CPI (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Italian CPI (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone CPI (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Brainard Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 23:15 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0876
Prev Close: 1.1109
% chg. over the last day: +2.14 %

The British pound rose for the third day after the Bank of England bought bonds. The Bank of England spent the second-day buying bonds to stabilize financial markets. The Bank of England bought 1.415 billion pounds ($1.55 billion) of British government bonds with maturities of more than 20 years on Thursday, the second day of a multibillion-dollar program aimed at stabilizing the market. But analysts are confident that the rise in sterling due to the Bank of England’s actions is not sustainable.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0918, 1.0711, 1.03
Resistance levels: 1.1210, 1.1449, 1.1626, 1.1693, 1.1816, 1.1901

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hour time frame is bearish. At the moment, the pound is strengthening due to the actions of the Bank of England. The MACD indicator remains positive, indicating a predominance of buyers. In such market conditions, sell deals are better to look for on the intraday time frames. The nearest resistance level is 1.1210, the level of the priority change. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.0918 or 1.0711, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out of the 1.1210 resistance level and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.30:

– UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 144.02
Prev Close: 144.41
% chg. over the last day: +0.27 %

Finance Minister Shun’ichi Suzuki said Thursday that Japan’s recent currency intervention was to correct market distortions caused by speculative currency movements. He also clarified that the Ministry of Finance is ready to intervene again if necessary. Thus, there is no point in expecting a significant movement in the currency pair USD/JPY, as the price has two opposing forces. Where on the one hand, the difference in policy between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan is pushing quotes up, and on the other hand, the Ministry of Finance of Japan is defending the depreciation of the yen.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 143.00, 140.60, 139.61, 138.78, 137.65, 136.80, 135.20
Resistance levels: 144.77, 145.35

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish despite last week’s intervention. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and there is slight selling pressure. The price has formed the “Head and Shoulders” pattern, which indicates a possible downward movement. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be searched for on intraday timeframes from the support level of 143, but with confirmation. Sell deals can be searched from the resistance level of 144.77, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 140.60, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.30:

– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3602
Prev Close: 1.3681
% chg. over the last day: +0.58 %

Canada’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 0.1% in July. Thus, the Canadian economy is experiencing an inflation shock more steadily than the US economy. Inflation in Canada is already showing signs of slowing, allowing the Bank of Canada to be less aggressive in raising interest rates further.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3611, 1.3545, 1.3453, 1.3297, 1.3212, 1.3053, 1.2990, 1.2958
Resistance levels: 1.3755, 1.3858, 1.3968

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator has become inactive. The price is trading at the level of the moving averages and forming a balance. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3611 or 1.3545. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3755, but only after additional confirmation, as the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.3545 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Sep

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 29.09.2022 (XAUUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD has formed a Harami reversal pattern not far from the resistance area. At the moment, the asset may reverse in the form of a new descending impulse. In this case, the downside target may be at 1615.00. At the same time, the opposite scenario implies that the price may correct to reach 1660.50 first and then resume the downtrend.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, NZDUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern close to the support level. At the moment, the asset is reversing in the form of a correctional wave. In this case, the upside correctional target may be at 0.5750. After that, the asset may rebound from the resistance area and resume moving downwards. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may fall to reach 0.5560 without any pullbacks.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, GBPUSD has formed a Harami reversal pattern near the support level. At the moment, the pair is reversing in the form of a new rising impulse. In this case, the upside target may be the resistance area at 1.0970. Later, the market may rebound from this level and resume falling. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, in which the asset may continue falling to reach the support level at 1.0470 without testing the resistance area.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Sep

Murrey Math Lines 29.09.2022 (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

In the H4 chart, USDCHF is trading within the “overbought area”. The Relative Strength Index is heading towards 30 and is currently testing the support line, a breakout of which might signal a further downtrend. In this case, the pair is expected to break 8/8 (0.9765) and then continue falling towards the support at 7/8 (0.9643). However, this scenario may be cancelled if the price breaks the resistance at +1/8 (0.9887) to the upside. After that, the instrument may move upwards to reach +2/8 (1.0009).

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue its decline.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD is trading below the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating a descending tendency. The Relative Strength Index has rebounded from the descending trendline. In this case, the price is expected to test 4/8 (1625.00), break it, and then continue moving downwards to reach the support at 3/8 (1593.75). However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance at 5/8 (1656.25) to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and resume growing towards 6/8 (1687.50).

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue moving downwards.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Sep

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.09.29

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 0.9595
Prev Close: 0.9734
% chg. over the last day: +1.48 %

The euro broke a five-day losing streak. ECB spokesman Holzmann said yesterday that a 50 basis point interest rate hike is the minimum to be considered at the October meeting. The ECB is ready to raise the rate above the neutral level of 2%. The ECB’s Rehn yesterday indicated that the bank needs a significant interest rate hike in October by 75 or 50 basis points. Another ECB spokesman Kazimir pointed out that next year will be much more difficult than this, and high inflation is likely to persist for a long time.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 0.9641, 0.9601
Resistance levels: 0.9808, 0.9865, 0.9949, 1.0111, 1.0162, 1.0230

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. But yesterday, the price formed a false breakdown zone. The MACD indicator became positive, and there is pressure from buyers. It is better to look for sell deals from the resistance level of 0.9808 or 0.9865. Buy trades can be considered from the level of 0.9641 or 0.9601, but only with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the resistance level of 0.9808 and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.29:

– Eurozone Spanish CPI (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone German CPI (q/q) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0725
Prev Close: 1.0882
% chg. over the last day: +1.46 %

The sharp rise in long-term UK government bond yields prompted the Bank of England to intervene, easing investor fears. The Bank of England plans to buy as many government bonds as necessary to stabilize markets. The Central Bank explained that if yields rise higher, it could lead to an unjustified tightening of funding conditions and reduce the flow of credit into the real economy. In other words, higher government bond yields could cause a credit crunch, making it harder and more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money. The bank said in a statement, “the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee recognized the market risks, recommended an intervention, and proposed a plan to buy bonds as a matter of urgency.” At the same time, the Bank of England will postpone the start of its quantitative tightening program (QT).

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0709, 1.0578, 1.03
Resistance levels: 1.1021, 1.1210, 1.1449, 1.1626, 1.1693, 1.1816, 1.1901

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hour time frame is bearish. The price is trading above the moving averages, and the balance is starting to form. The MACD indicator has become positive, indicating some buying pressure. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for sell trades on intraday time frames, the nearest resistance level is 1.1021. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.0709, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out of the 1.1210 resistance level and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 144.76
Prev Close: 144.10
% chg. over the last day: -0.45 %

The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, controlled the yield curve, and pointed to the need to maintain a strong easing policy. The pandemic program was extended for 3-6 months, depending on how loans were made. The difficulty for the BoJ is that the dollar index has fundamental support from the US Federal Reserve by aggressively raising interest rates. As a result, the diametrically opposite policies of the US and Japanese Central Banks contribute to the growth of USD/JPY quotes.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 143.00, 140.60, 139.61, 138.78, 137.65, 136.80, 135.20
Resistance levels: 145.35

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish despite last week’s intervention. The MACD indicator has become negative, and there is slight selling pressure. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought on intraday time frames from a support level of 143, but with confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 145.35, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 140.60, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3721
Prev Close: 1.3604
% chg. over the last day: -0.86 %

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. The dollar index declined yesterday, while oil prices rose on an unexpected drop in oil and fuel inventories in the United States. As a result, the Canadian dollar strengthened sharply yesterday. The Bank of Canada is holding rates at the same level as the US Fed, so the Canadian dollar will be the first currency to strengthen once the dollar is not rising.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3611, 1.3545, 1.3453, 1.3297, 1.3212, 1.3053, 1.2990, 1.2958
Resistance levels: 1.3755, 1.3858, 1.3968

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator became negative, and the price fell below the moving averages. This indicates some selling pressure and a possible correction. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3611 or 1.3545. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3755, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.3297 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.29:

– Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

28 Sep

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 28.09.2022 (EURUSD, XAUUSD, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is testing the support area. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen at 0.9575 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.9285. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.9835. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.9925.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD is trading inside the bearish channel. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen at 1630.00 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1580.00. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1685.00. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1725.00.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is rebounding from Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen at 1.3675 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.4155. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.3170. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.3085.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

28 Sep

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.09.28

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 0.9608
Prev Close: 0.9592
% chg. over the last day: -0.17 %

Hedge fund strategists remain bearish on the European currency until the end of the year. The funds’ minimum target is now 0.95, with a high probability of seeing a price of 0.90. This forecast comes from the energy price shocks facing the Eurozone and their negative impact on the industrial sector. The argument is that trade will shift to countries that are better protected from rising energy prices, further weakening the euro. Economic indicators for the eurozone point strongly to a recession as winter approaches, especially in Germany. Another ECB official, Luis de Guindos, said yesterday that the ECB will continue to raise rates in the coming months.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 0.9550
Resistance levels: 0.9808, 0.9865, 0.9949, 1.0111, 1.0162, 1.0230.

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hour time frame is bearish. The price is trading below the moving averages, and sellers’ pressure is still high. The MACD indicator is negative, but divergence can be seen in several timeframes. It is best to look for sell trades from the resistance level of 0.9808 or 0.9865. Buy trades can be considered from the round level of 0.9550, but only with confirmation in the form of a false breakdown.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the resistance level of 0.9808 and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.28:

– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 10:15 (GMT+3);
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 17:10 (GMT+3);
– US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 17:15 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0678
Prev Close: 1.0728
% chg. over the last day: -0.47 %

The UK government is confident in its economic strategy, UK Treasury Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng said Tuesday. Kwarteng also added that they will have a credible plan to reduce debt to GDP. On Nov. 23, the finance ministry will present a “Medium-Term Financial Plan” along with updated growth and borrowing forecasts. At the moment, the British pound is declining because of the rise in the dollar index and because of the new tax cut plan, which will greatly increase the amount of borrowing. Investors have concerns that the UK tax cut is financially unsustainable and could trigger an already rapid rise in inflation, which would eventually require a tighter monetary policy. Now the next step is up to the Bank of England, which promised on Monday not to hesitate to increase the interest rate in order to return inflation to the target level of 2% in the medium term. Analysts thus expect a 125-150 basis point rate hike at the next meeting.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0578, 1.03
Resistance levels: 1.1021, 1.1210, 1.1449, 1.1626, 1.1693, 1.1816, 1.1901

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hour time frame is bearish. The price is currently trading below the moving averages, and sellers’ pressure remains. The MACD indicator is negative, with no signs of a reversal. Sell trades are best to look for on intraday time frames, the nearest resistance level is 1.1021. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.0578, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out of the 1.1210 resistance level and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 144.57
Prev Close: 144.81
% chg. over the last day: +0.17 %

The Japanese Yen lost about 75% of the gains made after the currency intervention last week. The price is again approaching the 145 level, which the Ministry of Finance has promised to defend, indicating even more intervention. But analysts believe that the Japanese Ministry of Finance will not intervene again in such a short time. So far, the yen is weakening gradually without volatility bursts, and the Bank of Japan announced an unscheduled bond buying operation, which is a negative sign for the yen.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 143.00, 140.60, 139.61, 138.78, 137.65, 136.80, 135.20
Resistance levels: 145.35

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish despite the intervention. The MACD indicator is positive, the price is trading above the moving averages. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought on intraday time frames from the support level of 143, but with confirmation. Sell deals can be sought from the resistance level of 145.35, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 140.60, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.28:

– Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3733
Prev Close: 1.3723
% chg. over the last day: -0.07 %

The head of the Central Bank of Canada said yesterday that the central bank should continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation. Although analysts believe that the decline in inflation in Canada over the last quarter may convince Bank of Canada officials to be less aggressive. It is for this reason that the Canadian dollar is losing ground against the US dollar, as the Federal Reserve is not going to stop. The USD/CAD is also strongly influenced by the dynamics of oil prices. The decrease in oil prices also puts downward pressure on the Canadian dollar.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3614, 1.3662, 1.3545, 1.3453, 1.3297, 1.3212, 1.3053, 1.2990, 1.2958
Resistance levels: 1.3858, 1.3968

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, there is buying pressure, but the divergence is increasing. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3614. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3858 or 1.3968, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.3297 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.28:

– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.