Forex and Currency News :: Page 98

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 98

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.10.24

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 0.9780
Prev Close: 0.9856
% chg. over the last day: +0.77 %

The euro gained about 1.4% against the US dollar last week, the best week since late May. On Friday, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said it was time to start talking about slowing borrowing costs and that the Fed should be less aggressive in its rate hike cycle. So the next rate hike is being considered at 0.5%. The statement came as a surprise to analysts as all previous statements of the Fed representatives were only aimed at an aggressive rate hike cycle with the next step at 0.75%. Because the ECB is planning to raise the rate by 0.75% this week, a reduction in the interest rate differential between the US Fed and the ECB might give confidence to the European currency.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 0.9817, 0.9755, 0.9601
Resistance levels: 0.9961, 1.0058, 1.0111, 1.0162, 1.0230

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages. The MACD indicator became positive, and the buyers’ pressure is prevailing again. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 0.9817 or 0.9755, but with additional confirmation in the form of reverse initiative. Sell deals may be considered from the resistance level of 0.9961, but also with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 0.9700 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.10.24:

– French Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
– French Services PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Treasury Secretary Yellen Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1219
Prev Close: 1.1292
% chg. over the last day: +0.65 %

This week the Conservative Party of Great Britain must choose a new leader to become the fifth Prime Minister in Great Britain in the last six years. Boris Johnson has announced that he will not run for the Conservative Party leader and UK prime minister position. Thus, former finance minister Rishi Sunak is the front-runner for the prime minister. The next prime minister will inherit an economy on the road to a recession, with rising interest rates and inflation of more than 10%, leaving millions of people facing a cost-of-living crisis. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who is expected to remain in office under the new prime minister, said Friday that he would do “whatever is necessary” to reduce the national debt ahead of his new budget, to be announced on October 31.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1172, 1.1093, 1.0915, 1.0817
Resistance levels: 1.1369, 1.1478, 1.1693, 1.1816, 1.1901

From the technical point of view, the GBP/USD currency pair trend on the hourly time frame is bullish. But the price is trading below the moving averages. The price is trading below the moving averages again. The MACD indicator has become positive, and buyers’ pressure prevails. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.1172, but better after confirmation. Sell trades are best to look for on intraday time frames, the nearest resistance level is 1.1369.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.1093 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.10.24:

– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 150.13
Prev Close: 147.58
% chg. over the last day: -1.73 %

On Friday, the Japanese Ministry of Finance carried out another intervention to protect the yen from falling further. The background to this price movement is the continued monetary policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve. The Japanese government is expected to announce a stimulus package by the end of this month. The weak yen exacerbates household problems by raising the expensive food and fuel costs. The Bank of Japan will also meet on monetary policy and interest rates this week. But analysts do not expect any changes and believe that the Bank of Japan will maintain its current loose monetary policy, which will continue to put pressure on the yen.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 146.63, 145.88, 144.91, 144.16, 143.00
Resistance levels: 149.55, 150.00, 151.05

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish despite the currency intervention. The price is trading below the moving levels. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but the buyers’ pressure remains. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought on intraday time frames from the support level of 146.63, but with confirmation. Sell deals can be searched from the resistance level of 150.00 or 151.05, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 145.88, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.10.24:

– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3761
Prev Close: 1.3643
% chg. over the last day: -0.86 %

The Bank of Canada will hold its monetary policy and interest rate meeting this week. The Bank of Canada is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, although a move from 75 bps is possible as core inflation in Canada shows no signs of slowing. Also, keep in mind that the Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it is also highly exposed to oil price fluctuations. The medium-term oil outlook points to growth, so amid a decline in the dollar index, the Canadian currency can at least take over the initiative.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3639, 1.3619, 1.3583, 1.3535, 1.3454
Resistance levels: 1.3795, 1.3855, 1.3968

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is trading at the level of moving averages. The MACD indicator has become negative, but the sellers’ pressure is weak. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3638 but better after confirmation. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3795, but only after additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3619, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

23 Oct

Large Currency Speculators boost Euro bullish bets to 19-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 18th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Euro & Mexican Peso lead Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets were the Mexican peso (11,360 contracts) and the Euro (10,651 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (5,099 contracts), the New Zealand dollar (597 contracts) and the Brazilian real (423 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Japanese yen (-16,943 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-12,041 contracts) with the Australian dollar (-4,088 contracts), the Swiss franc (-1,196 contracts), Bitcoin (-835 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-96 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency data this week was the Euro. The large speculator positioning this week saw Euro bets rise by over +10,000 contracts and go higher for the sixth time out of the past seven weeks. Euro bets have gained by over +95,000 net contracts in just the past seven weeks, going from -47,676 contracts on August 30th to over +48,000 contracts this week. This bullishness has brought the overall net speculator standing to its highest level in nineteen weeks, dating back to June 7th.

Euro speculators have been raising their bets into a market that is close to 20-year lows in the EURUSD exchange rate. Speculators are clearly betting that the exchange rate is close to a low point and looking to profit on a turnaround. The European Central Bank is expected to raise their interest rates this week by potentially 75-basis points and with the possibility of further rate rises before the end of the year.

The EURUSD exchange rate closed the week over 1.25 percent higher and ended the week around the 0.9855 exchange level.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-18-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	55,234	78	32,690	79	-37,014	17	4,324	64
EUR	640,469	50	48,150	50	-70,577	56	22,427	15
GBP	258,826	73	-51,211	25	76,309	86	-25,098	9
JPY	264,265	89	-94,336	11	110,841	90	-16,505	20
CHF	44,911	31	-7,086	39	19,098	74	-12,012	17
CAD	146,425	28	-20,573	16	25,103	90	-4,530	21
AUD	150,496	45	-35,359	52	48,971	55	-13,612	19
NZD	50,448	44	-18,445	38	22,359	67	-3,914	7
MXN	215,836	57	-22,294	18	16,273	80	6,021	69
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	41,954	29	26,498	76	-28,581	23	2,083	89
Bitcoin	14,228	82	22	77	-665	0	643	28

Strength Scores led by US Dollar Index, Bitcoin & Brazilian Real

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (79.5 percent), Bitcoin and the Brazilian Real (76.4 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Australian Dollar (52.1 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (10.8 percent), Canadian Dollar (16.3 percent) and the Mexican Peso (17.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and all three are in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (79.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (79.6 percent)
EuroFX (49.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (46.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (25.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (35.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (10.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (21.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (38.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (16.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (10.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (52.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (55.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (38.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (37.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (17.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (13.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (76.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (76.0 percent)
Bitcoin (77.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (91.9 percent)

EuroFX leads the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the EuroFX (25.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Australian Dollar (19.6 percent) and the Mexican Peso (3.1 percent) fill out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-43.2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the New Zealand Dollar (-27.3 percent), Bitcoin (-22.7 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-22.3 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-5.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.6 percent)
EuroFX (25.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (26.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-0.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-8.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (-22.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-7.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-9.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-43.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-56.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (19.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (24.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-27.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-27.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (3.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-2.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (-4.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (16.9 percent)
Bitcoin (-22.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-7.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -96 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.4	3.5	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	70.6	4.8
– Net Position:	32,690	-37,014	4,324
– Gross Longs:	44,956	1,955	6,954
– Gross Shorts:	12,266	38,969	2,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.5	17.0	63.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.7	2.3	21.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,150 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,499 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	54.2	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	65.2	8.4
– Net Position:	48,150	-70,577	22,427
– Gross Longs:	202,703	347,078	76,183
– Gross Shorts:	154,553	417,655	53,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.8	56.0	14.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.9	-25.6	9.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -51,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,041 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,170 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	75.1	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.4	45.6	16.9
– Net Position:	-51,211	76,309	-25,098
– Gross Longs:	40,328	194,385	18,668
– Gross Shorts:	91,539	118,076	43,766
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.0	85.9	8.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	4.3	-10.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -94,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,393 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	77.0	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.3	35.1	16.3
– Net Position:	-94,336	110,841	-16,505
– Gross Longs:	30,583	203,508	26,491
– Gross Shorts:	124,919	92,667	42,996
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.8	89.7	19.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.3	16.2	6.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,086 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,890 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	63.9	20.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	21.4	47.1
– Net Position:	-7,086	19,098	-12,012
– Gross Longs:	7,052	28,702	9,122
– Gross Shorts:	14,138	9,604	21,134
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.5	73.9	16.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	3.6	2.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -20,573 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,672 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	53.9	20.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.2	36.7	23.2
– Net Position:	-20,573	25,103	-4,530
– Gross Longs:	35,384	78,895	29,508
– Gross Shorts:	55,957	53,792	34,038
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.3	89.6	21.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.2	36.7	-11.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -35,359 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,088 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,271 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	63.4	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.5	30.9	20.5
– Net Position:	-35,359	48,971	-13,612
– Gross Longs:	33,046	95,474	17,233
– Gross Shorts:	68,405	46,503	30,845
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.1	55.4	19.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.6	-11.1	-15.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -18,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,042 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	73.4	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.0	29.1	13.3
– Net Position:	-18,445	22,359	-3,914
– Gross Longs:	10,328	37,048	2,787
– Gross Shorts:	28,773	14,689	6,701
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.2	67.0	6.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.3	25.3	-1.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -22,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,360 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,654 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.8	34.2	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.2	26.6	1.0
– Net Position:	-22,294	16,273	6,021
– Gross Longs:	133,432	73,758	8,139
– Gross Shorts:	155,726	57,485	2,118
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1	3.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.8	79.6	68.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-3.8	7.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 26,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.3	19.6	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	87.7	3.1
– Net Position:	26,498	-28,581	2,083
– Gross Longs:	30,326	8,229	3,398
– Gross Shorts:	3,828	36,810	1,315
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.4	23.4	89.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	3.8	5.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 22 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -835 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.3	0.8	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.1	5.5	5.3
– Net Position:	22	-665	643
– Gross Longs:	10,710	120	1,404
– Gross Shorts:	10,688	785	761
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.3	32.2	27.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.7	30.9	15.1

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21 Oct

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 21.10.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD worked off a downward wave to 0.9752 and a correction to 0.9844. Today the market is forming another wave of decline to the level of 0.9733. After its breakdown, we expect the formation of the consolidation range around this level. Upon release from the range down, we will consider continuation of the trend towards 0.9622. The target is local.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has worked off a decline wave to the level of 1.1170 and correction to 1.1330. Today we expect the development of the next decline wave to the level of 1.1150. After its breakdown, we will consider the formation of the consolidation range around this level. With the exit from it downwards, the potential for the next downward wave to 1.0970 will open. The target is local.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY formed a consolidation range around the 149.80 level. With the upside exit, the market opened up the potential for trend continuation to 151.51. Today, we expect this level to work out and start a correction to 149.80.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF continues to form a rising wave towards the 1.0099 level. The target is local. After its accomplishment, we will consider the probability of correction to the level of 0.9911. Further, the growth is to the level of 1.0350.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD worked off an upside wave to 0.6353. Today the market is forming another wave of decline to 0.6190 (at least). Further, the correction to the level of 0.6277. Then a decline to 0.6170.

BRENT

Brent continues to form a consolidation range above 92.12. An upside exit would open up the potential for a rise to 95.30. The target is the first one. After this level is reached, the correction to 92.00 is expected.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has worked off a correction wave to 1640.00. Today, the market continues a downward wave towards 1610.00. After working out this level, a correction link to 1630.00 is not excluded. Further – decrease to the level of 1600.00.

S&P 500

The S&P index worked off a correction to 3647.0. Today the market is forming a consolidation range above it. With the exit from it upwards we will consider the development of the next growth wave to 3861.4. Then – continuation of the trend downwards, to the level of 3494.0.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 Oct

The Pound “says goodbye” to the prime minister. Overview for 21.10.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

The British pound sterling is down against the US dollar on Friday. The current quote in GBPUSD is 1.1190. So, another political intrigue in the UK has been resolved. Prime Minister Liz Truss has resigned over the consequences of the economic programme she was promoting. “A ‘split’ in the ranks of the Conservative Party is unusual in itself. But when you remember that Truss proposed to reduce taxes by increasing the national debt and at the same time reducing confidence in the British economy in general, everything falls into place.

Truss’ resignation came a day after the minister of the interior stepped down. Earlier, the finance minister had left their post.

For now the political debate and the search for a new head of government will remain the “focus” of market attention.

At the same time, it is worth keeping an eye on what the Bank of England will do now. Earlier comments were made by its representatives that rates might not rise as quickly as the markets would like them to. The English regulator is facing a fantastically difficult task in reducing inflationary pressures. The consumer price index has reached double digits and for conservative England this is a huge “stress”.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 Oct

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.10.21

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 0.9770
Prev Close: 0.9784
% chg. over the last day: +0.14 %

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said Thursday that the central bank has not yet ended its cycle of raising interest rates amid very high inflation, adding that the Central Bank will likely only pause the tightening process next year. Analysts believe that until the difference between US Federal Reserve and ECB interest rates begins to narrow, it is premature to look for a reversal in the euro.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 0.9767, 0.9752, 0.9701
Resistance levels: 0.9848, 0.9961, 1.0058, 1.0111, 1.0162, 1.0230

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. But the price is trading below the moving averages. Indicator MACD has become negative, and the buyers’ pressure is weakening, but active sellers are not observed. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 0.9752, but with additional confirmation in the form of reverse initiative. Sells may be considered from the resistance level of 0.9848, but also with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 0.9666 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.10.21:

– Eurozone EU Leaders Summit (m/m) at 13:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks (m/m) at 16:10 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1211
Prev Close: 1.1229
% chg. over the last day: +0.16 %

Unexpected events took place in the UK. Liz Truss announced her resignation as Prime Minister after just 45 days in office, the shortest term ever. Truss faced calls to leave because of the disastrous effects of her mini-budget. The prime minister’s departure provoked a struggle among conservative lawmakers to find a successor. Because of the uncertainty, investors are now advised to avoid speculating about the British pound.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1186, 1.1093, 1.0915, 1.0817
Resistance levels: 1.1311, 1.1367, 1.1478, 1.1693, 1.1816, 1.1901

From the technical point of view, the GBP/USD currency pair trend on the hourly time frame is bullish. But the price is trading below the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become negative, indicating a weakness of the buyers. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.1186, but better after confirmation. It is better to look for sell trades on the intraday time frames, and the nearest resistance level is 1.1311.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.1094 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.10.21:

– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 149.87
Prev Close: 150.12
% chg. over the last day: +0.17 %

On Thursday, the yen broke above the key psychological level of 150 to the dollar for the first time since 1990, despite repeated threats by Japanese policymakers to intervene to eliminate excessive volatility in the currency market. The dollar/yen pair’s break above the key level increases pressure on Tokyo to re-enter the foreign exchange market to curb the national currency’s inevitable decline. Especially given that Japan’s consumer inflation has reached a 31-year high.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 149.47, 147.67, 146.44, 145.93, 144.91, 144.16, 143.00
Resistance levels: 150.00

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price is trading above the moving levels. The price is trading above the moving average lines. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, the buyer’s pressure remains, but the divergence is increasing, which indicates a soon corrective movement. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be searched for on intraday time frames from the support level of 149.47, but with confirmation. Sell deals can be searched from the resistance level of 150.00, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 147.67, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.10.21:

– Japan National Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: : 1.3759
Prev Close: 1.3766
% chg. over the last day: +0.05 %

Economists expect the Bank of Canada to continue its aggressive campaign to raise rates after higher-than-expected inflation data. Bank of Montreal’s chief economist expects 75 basis points (bps) increase next week. The move will raise the overnight rate to 4%. In addition, he predicts a 25 basis point hike in December. The deputy chief economist at CIBC also predicts a 0.75% rate hike.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3677, 1.3619, 1.3583, 1.3535, 1.3454
Resistance levels: 1.3786, 1.3855, 1.3968

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is trading at the level of moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive, forming a wide sideways. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3677 but better after confirmation. For selling, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3786, but only after an additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3677, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.10.21:

– Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Financial News Forex and Currency News

20 Oct

The Euro has retreated after all. Overview for 20.10.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

The main currency pair was slightly below previous levels by Thursday. The current quote in EURUSD is 0.9770. There was no particularly “minor” news on the ground. But investors were sensitive to the global “mood” and started to walk away from the risks.

US statistics released the day before were mixed. The number of building permits for new homes in September rose to 1.56 million from 1.54 million, whereas a decrease to 1.52 million was expected. At the same time the number of new home orders in September “fell” to 1.44 million from the previous 1.57 million. The picture is as follows: the volume of permits is considerable, but it is not a given that households will go straight to the building itself. This is due to the “acceleration” of inflation, including in the building materials segment.

Interestingly, European inflation did adjust to 9.9% y/y in September rather than 10.0% as originally calculated. The core CPI remained stable at around 4.8% y/y.

The focus today will be on the weekly unemployment claims in the US. The figure could have remained around 229,000, which is neutral for EURUSD. Also worth watching is the secondary home sales data for September – the indicator could have fallen to 4.69 million, which once again confirms the weakness in consumer demand.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

20 Oct

The Yen is even weaker. Overview for 20.10.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

The Japanese yen paired with the US dollar has fallen to another low in more than 30 years. The current quote in the USDJPY is 149.94. The devaluation of the yen is “in full swing” and this is now really scaring the monetary authorities in Japan. The situation is clearly spiralling out of control.

This morning the Central Bank announced its readiness to urgently purchase USD 667 million worth of government bonds in order to stabilise the debt market. The decision was probably taken after the yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 0.225%, which exceeded BoE targets.

The Japanese Prime Minister estimates that the economy is facing external risks and realising the consequences of foreign developments. The Japanese authorities are now preparing a stimulus package for the economic system and are likely to decide on the level of spending.

Earlier, the monetary watchdogs had carried out a massive 2.84 trillion yen currency intervention. But these measures had only a short-term effect.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

20 Oct

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.10.20

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 0.9850
Prev Close: 0.9771
% chg. over the last day: -0.81 %

The annual inflation rate in the Eurozone increased to 9.9% in September 2022, up from 9.1% in August. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose to 4.8% from 4.3%. According to a report released by Eurostat, inflation remains high in almost all categories. Amid this jump in consumer prices, ECB representative Vasle indicated yesterday that the central bank should raise interest rates by 75 basis points at its next two meetings.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 0.9752, 0.9701
Resistance levels: 0.9848, 0.9961, 1.0058, 1.0111, 1.0162, 1.0230

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. But the price is trading below the moving averages. Indicator MACD has become negative, and the buyers’ pressure is weakening, but active sellers are not observed too. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 0.9752, but with additional confirmation in the form of reverse initiative. Sell deals may be considered from the resistance level of 0.9848, but also with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 0.9666 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.10.20:

– Germany Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone EU Leaders Summit (m/m) at 13:00 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1306
Prev Close: 1.1213
% chg. over the last day: -0.83 %

The UK Consumer Price Index rose from 9.9% to 10.1% year-over-year, slightly above expectations of 10%. Annual core inflation increased from 6.3% to 6.5%. Now that there is some clarity on the new mini-budget, benefits, and taxes, and the inflation rate is known, the next step is up to the Bank of England. Analysts are predicting a significant rate hike (0.75-1%) at the next meeting on November 3. Investors expect the pound to remain under pressure amid rising inflation and recession in the UK.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1186, 1.1093, 1.0915, 1.0817
Resistance levels: 1.1311, 1.1367, 1.1478, 1.1693, 1.1816, 1.1901

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.1094 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 149.23
Prev Close: 149.90
% chg. over the last day: +0.45 %

Traders expect the Japanese Finance Ministry and the Central Bank to enter the market again as the currency pair is approaching the key psychological barrier at 150. Analysts believe that if the price passes the 150 level, it will accelerate the quotes’ growth. Yesterday, Prime Minister of Japan Fumio Kishida said that the government could not tolerate the sudden one-sided and excessive movements in the currency market. The possibility of a new intervention is increasing, but previous attempts to stop the growth were unsuccessful. Perhaps investors are in for a surprise monetary policy “reversal” from the Bank of Japan. Still, so far, such a scenario seems unlikely, as Bank of Japan leaders on Wednesday stressed the need to maintain the ultra-soft monetary policy in order to protect the economy from possible risks. Credit Suisse analysts are confident that the yen could weaken well above the 150 level if Japan’s central bank maintains its monetary policy at its October 27-28 meeting.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 149.48, 147.67, 146.44, 145.93, 144.91, 144.16, 143.00
Resistance levels: 150.00

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price is trading above the moving levels. The price is trading above the moving average levels. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, the buyer’s pressure remains, but the divergence is increasing, which indicates a soon corrective movement. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be searched for on intraday time frames from the support level of 149.48, but with confirmation. Sell deals can be searched from the resistance level of 150.00, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 147.67, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3738
Prev Close: 1.3763
% chg. over the last day: +0.18 %

Canada’s annual inflation for the month of September was 6.9% year-over-year (August: 7.0%), indicating a third consecutive decline in overall inflation. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, was up from 5.8% to 6.0% year-over-year. Analysts believe the jump in core inflation reinforces the likelihood that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates another 75 basis points next week and remain on an aggressive path for a while longer.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3732, 1.3619, 1.3583, 1.3535, 1.3454
Resistance levels: 1.3795, 1.3855, 1.3968

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is trading at the level of moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive, forming a wide sideways. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3732, but after confirmation, as the level has already been tested. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3855, but only after additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3677, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

Financial News Forex and Currency News

19 Oct

Mid-Week Technical Outlook : Majors

By ForexTime

A sense of caution returned to markets on Wednesday as concerns over soaring inflation and slowing economic growth punctured risk sentiment. King dollar drew strength from the negative vibes while sterling weakened after UK inflation hit double digits. In the commodity space, oil prices edged cautiously higher thanks to bullish signals but gold tumbled with bears eyeing $1615. With the economic calendar relatively light today, markets could be influenced by corporate earnings and other key themes influencing sentiment. Our focus falls on the currency space with the tool of choice none other than technical analysis.

EURUSD eyes 0.9700

The path of least resistance for the EURUSD points south. Prices are trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Average while the MACD trades below zero. A stronger dollar may drag the EURUSD and may pull prices closer to 0.9700. If this support is breached, the next key level can be found at 0.9500. A move back above 0.9900 could open the doors back to parity.

GBPUSD…watch the range

Prices remain trapped within a wide range with support at 1.0925 and resistance at 1.1400. Sustained weakness under this resistance is likely to open the doors towards 1.1200 and 1.0925. If bulls can push prices above 1.1400, then an incline toward 1.1490 (where the 50-day SMA resides could be on the cards).

AUDUSD gearing for major breakdown

The trend is bearish on the AUDUSD. Prices are currently within a range with support at 0.6200 and resistance at 0.6340. A breakdown below 0.6200 could trigger a selloff towards 0.6000. If prices can break above 0.6340, the AUDUSD could test 0.6550.

USDJPY keeps pushing higher

After securing a daily close above 149.00, USDJPY bulls are certainly in the driver’s seat. The currency pair is trading at levels not seen in 32 years thanks to verbal intervention by the Bank of Japan and an appreciating dollar. The upside momentum could take prices towards 150.00 and higher. A move back below 149.00 could trigger a selloff towards 145.00.

USDCAD ready to move?

Nothing much has happened on the USDCAD over the past few days. Prices have been trapped within a tight range with support at 1.3700 and resistance at 1.3840. Given how the dollar is back on the rise amid risk aversion, the USDCAD could conquer 1.3840 and 1.4000, respectively. If prices end up breaking below 1.3700, bears may target 1.3502.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

18 Oct

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 18.10.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has formed a consolidation range around 0.9790 and continues to correct to 0.9873. After this level has been reached, the downside link to the level of 0.9790 is not excluded (test from above). Next, consider the likelihood of another upside structure to 0.9950.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has formed a consolidation range around the level of 1.1330 and with the exit upwards it suggests to consider the probability of continuation of correction to the level of 1.1513. After working out of this level, we expect a decline to the level of 1.1330. Further growth to the level of 1.1730.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has worked off the upside structure to 149.07. The market is currently forming a consolidation range below this level. On the way up, there will be upside potential to 149.40. On the way down, there is downside potential to 148.40.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF rebounded to 0.9921. A continuation of the correction to 0.9900 is not excluded. Further, the growth to the level 1.0121 is expected. The target is local.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has formed a consolidation range around the 0.6288 level. With an upside exit, the potential for continued correction to the 0.6383 level is open. The target is local.

BRENT

Brent continues to develop a consolidation range around the 93.36 level. Today we expect a growth link to the 95.70 level. After working out of this level, consider the probability of decrease to the level of 93.36. Further growth to the level of 100.20. The target is the first one.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is forming an upside pattern towards 1664.90. We expect consolidation range development around this level and with the exit up we will consider continuation of the growth wave to the level of 1683.40. The arget is local.

S&P 500

The S&P index worked its way up to 3739.0. Today we expect consolidation range formation around this level. With an upside entry, upside potential will open up to 3896.3 with the prospect of a continuation of the trend towards 3983.3.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

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