Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 87

Currency Speculators cut Japanese Yen bearish bets for 6th time in 7 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (12,808 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (2,726 contracts), British Pound (2,454 contracts), Brazilian Real (1,261 contracts), US Dollar Index (892 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (419 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-5,158 contracts), Mexican Peso (-3,588 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (-1,008 contracts), EuroFX (-168 contracts) and Bitcoin (-107 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies data this week is the improvement being seen in the Japanese yen speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for the Japanese yen have risen for two straight weeks and in six out of the past seven weeks. This improvement for the yen has taken the net position from a total of -102,618 contracts on October 25th to just a total of -53,188 contracts this week for a total reduction in the bearish position by +49,430 contracts. The yen speculator position is now at the least bearish level in the past fifteen weeks.

The yen exchange rate versus the dollar has been on the mend as well after falling to over a 30-year low in October at the 151.94 exchange rate. The yen has rallied by approximately 10 percent since the recent low and has been helped out by a decreasing interest rate differential between the US bonds and the Japanese bonds (see chart below). The yen could see further improvement if the USDJPY falls below the approaching the 200-day moving average.

japanese yen vs us dollar interest rate differential


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-13-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index48,0696325,77868-28,482312,70446
EUR772,800100124,71573-157,3773132,66231
GBP240,26461-25,7394731,28855-5,54947
JPY226,96466-53,1883659,02964-5,84142
CHF49,34064-11,8112315,97271-4,16143
CAD169,43343-27,248924,924892,32435
AUD172,26962-37,8375042,84551-5,00840
NZD55,29464-7,506346,096611,41068
MXN290,1169144,36446-49,811525,44766
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL34,190193,45950-5,560492,10186
Bitcoin13,98971-4076-409044923

 


Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Bitcoin (76 percent) and the EuroFX (73 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The US Dollar Index (68 percent), Australian Dollar (50 percent) and the Brazilian Real (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (9 percent) is at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (23 percent), New Zealand Dollar (34 percent) and the Japanese Yen (36 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (67.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (66.4 percent)
EuroFX (73.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (73.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (46.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (44.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (36.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (28.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (23.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (22.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (49.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (47.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (34.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (46.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (47.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (49.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (48.3 percent)
Bitcoin (76.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (78.1 percent)

 

British Pound & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (16 percent) and the Japanese Yen (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (12 percent), the Swiss Franc (8 percent) and the Bitcoin (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-11 percent), New Zealand Dollar (-10 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-6.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-8.7 percent)
EuroFX (5.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (15.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (16.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (15.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (22.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (7.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-2.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-4.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (11.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (10.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-9.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (17.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (0.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-27.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-28.9 percent)
Bitcoin (7.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (0.8 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 25,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 892 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,886 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:80.62.612.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.061.86.4
– Net Position:25,778-28,4822,704
– Gross Longs:38,7661,2455,782
– Gross Shorts:12,98829,7273,078
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.0 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.930.546.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.77.7-9.2

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 124,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -168 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 124,883 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.653.612.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.573.97.9
– Net Position:124,715-157,37732,662
– Gross Longs:236,415414,09094,033
– Gross Shorts:111,700571,46761,371
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.331.431.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.8-8.115.4

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -25,739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,454 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.366.010.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.053.012.9
– Net Position:-25,73931,288-5,549
– Gross Longs:32,008158,68625,472
– Gross Shorts:57,747127,39831,021
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.955.347.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.4-23.229.4

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -53,188 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.869.211.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.343.214.3
– Net Position:-53,18859,029-5,841
– Gross Longs:22,290157,02126,668
– Gross Shorts:75,47897,99232,509
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.164.541.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.0-17.925.0

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.268.921.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.236.629.9
– Net Position:-11,81115,972-4,161
– Gross Longs:2,08134,01610,597
– Gross Shorts:13,89218,04414,758
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.471.343.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.9-19.429.7

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -27,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,090 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.751.618.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.836.917.6
– Net Position:-27,24824,9242,324
– Gross Longs:31,72087,47132,089
– Gross Shorts:58,96862,54729,765
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.4 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.389.534.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.54.77.9

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -37,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.861.210.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.836.413.0
– Net Position:-37,83742,845-5,008
– Gross Longs:35,825105,48017,339
– Gross Shorts:73,66262,63522,347
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.850.840.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.8-14.817.5

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,008 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,498 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.652.19.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.241.07.0
– Net Position:-7,5066,0961,410
– Gross Longs:19,70028,7935,297
– Gross Shorts:27,20622,6973,887
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.160.967.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.8-1.951.1

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,364 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,952 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.136.82.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.853.90.9
– Net Position:44,364-49,8115,447
– Gross Longs:168,481106,6987,935
– Gross Shorts:124,117156,5092,488
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.7 to 13.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.352.066.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.10.3-4.3

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 3,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:67.722.210.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:57.638.44.0
– Net Position:3,459-5,5602,101
– Gross Longs:23,1617,5743,455
– Gross Shorts:19,70213,1341,354
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.6 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.649.385.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.524.723.8

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:76.22.99.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:76.55.86.3
– Net Position:-40-409449
– Gross Longs:10,6664031,329
– Gross Shorts:10,706812880
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.244.623.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.2-19.1-0.4

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

EUR holds positions. Overview for 16.12.2022

By RoboForex.com

The market major used the US statistics quite efficiently. The current quote is 1.0650.

EURUSD is trying and trying to grow, though investors look quite tired after the active week.

The US statistics published yesterday demonstrated a decline in November retail sales by 0.6% m/m, while a decline by 0.2% had been forecast after previous growth by 1.3% m/m. Retail sales minus cars dropped by 0.2% m/m, while the forecast had suggested growth by 0.2%. Industrial production in the US in November dropped by 0.2% m/m upon falling in October by 0.1% m/m. Meanwhile, growth by 0.2% m/m had been expected. Production power load dropped to 79.7% from 79.9% previously.

Obviously, the US economy is falling deeper in recession though officials would not admit it.

The December meeting of the European Central Bank resulted in the expected increase in the interest rate by 50 base points, to 2.50% a year. The rhetoric of the regulator was unexpectedly tough, but this only supported the EUR. Christine Lagarde commented that global growth had slowed down due to tightening of financial conditions; weakening of the economy might lead to a certain increase in unemployment. Financial measures can increase inflation stress but the ECB risks it to reach long-term goals. Judging by their reactions, investors were satisfied.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.12.16

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0680
  • Prev Close: 1.0626
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.50 %

The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its interest rate by another 50 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, bringing its discount rate to the upper limit of most estimates of a neutral configuration for the eurozone, at 2%. The ECB’s new macroeconomic forecasts predict inflation above the ECB’s price stability definition for the entire three-year forecast horizon. The peak discount rate is forecast at 3.25%. Eurozone’s inflation data will be released today. Analysts forecast that consumer prices will remain unchanged.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0580, 1.0549, 1.0483, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284, 1.0193
  • Resistance levels: 1.0695

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages. The price is trading above the moving averages, but there is selling pressure on the lower time frames. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0580 or 1.0549, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0695, but it is better with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout because the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0446 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.12.16:
  • – French Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+2);
  • – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2414
  • Prev Close: 1.2177
  • % chg. over the last day: -1.95 %

Yesterday the Bank of England raised its interest rate by 0.5% as expected, but it did not help the British currency to keep the fall, as dollar index growth provoked a sell-off in major currency pairs. The Bank of England said that further rate hikes might be needed to meet the bank’s goal of 2%. Investors expect the Bank of England to raise its key rate to 4.5% by the middle of next year, which implies two more hikes of 0.5% each.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2177, 1.2024, 1.1964, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
  • Resistance levels: 1.2308, 1.2431, 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. But the price is trading below the moving averages, and selling prevails inside the day. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone. Under such market conditions, buy trades are better to look for from the support level of 1.2177, but with confirmation on intraday time frames. Sell trades are best sought from the resistance level of 1.2308, but also better with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.2100 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2022.12.16:
  • – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 135.43
  • Prev Close: 137.78
  • % chg. over the last day: +1.73 %

Japan’s manufacturing PMI fell to 48.8 in December from 49.0 in the previous month. For the second month, the index is below the 50 mark, which separates contraction from growth. Meanwhile, service sector activity rose due to a rebound in tourism. The Services Business Activity Index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 51.7 in December, up from 50.3 in the previous month. The Japanese yen is still under pressure as the Bank of Japan firmly sticks to its soft monetary policy.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 137.18, 135.61
  • Resistance levels: 139.09, 140.75, 143.17, 145.16

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish, but the probability of trend change is increasing as the price has consolidated above the moving averages, and the MACD indicator shows buying pressure. Sell deals can be sought from the resistance level of 139.09, provided that there is a reverse reaction. Buy trades are best considered on intraday time frames from the support level of 137.18, but only with confirmation, as the level is quite high relative to the growth wave.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 139.00, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3544
  • Prev Close: 1.3655
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.82 %

The Canadian dollar lost some ground yesterday due to the rise in the dollar index and the decline in oil prices. In the medium term, the Canadian dollar has strong fundamental support from the Bank of Canada as the BoC holds one of the highest interest rates, on par with the US Federal Reserve. Therefore, only oil prices will have the greatest impact on the USD/CAD quotes.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3601, 1.3521, 1.3438, 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
  • Resistance levels: 1.3690, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is positive again. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.3601, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3690, but with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or after a false breakout, since the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3386, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Week Ahead: Can USDJPY break below 200-day SMA?

By ForexTime 

After the Fed, BOE and the ECB have all had their say this week, up steps the Bank of Japan over the coming week, amid these other scheduled economic data releases and events:

 

Monday, December 19

Tuesday, December 20

  • NZD: New Zealand November external trade, December business confidence
  • AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes
  • CNH: China loan prime rates
  • JPY: Bank of Japan rate decision
  • EUR: Eurozone December consumer confidence
  • CAD: Canada October retail sales
  • Nike earnings

Wednesday, December 21

  • NZD: New Zealand December consumer confidence
  • Crude: EIA weekly oil inventories
  • CAD: Canada November consumer price index (CPI)
  • USD: US December consumer confidence

Thursday, December 22

  • GBP: UK 3Q GDP (final)
  • USD: US weekly initial jobless claims; 3Q GDP

Friday, December 23

  • JPY: Japan November CPI, BOJ releases October meeting minutes
  • USD: US November PCE deflator, personal income and spending; December manufacturing activity, consumer sentiment (final)

 

To be clear, the Bank of Japan is not expected to change anything next week: no rate hike, no policy adjustments, nada.

However, it’s what the BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda says about plans for policy changes in the future, that might be catalyst for major moves for the Japanese Yen.

In the lead up to next week’s meeting, several BOJ officials are reported to be open to reviewing their policy settings in 2023.

Markets now need confirmation from the BOJ’s top boss.

 

BOJ wants stronger demand-pull inflation before exiting negative rate regime

Keep in mind that, as the rest of the world embarked on an aggressive series of rate hikes in 2022, Japan’s policy balance rate has remained rooted in negative territory, currently at -0.10%.

This is because the BOJ wants to see inflationary pressures become more entrenched in the world’s third largest economy.

Against such a context, we’re due to learn of Japan’s national consumer price index (CPI) – which measures inflation – a week from today:

  • The November CPI is forecasted to reach 3.9%, which would be almost double the BOJ’s 2% target.
  • A 3.9% print would also be its highest since January 1991.

 

However, the BOJ believes even these higher CPI prints are only reflective of higher costs, as opposed to stronger consumer demand that’s pushing these prices higher.

Hence, given the forward-looking nature of the markets, the mere hint that the BOJ is finally ready to hop onto this global policy tightening bandwagon could jolt the Japanese Yen.

 

JPY bulls ready to pounce

Note how the Japanese Yen remains the worst-performing G10 currency versus the US dollar in 2022, despite recovering by some 10% since weakening to almost 152 against the greenback back in October.

 

Hence, Yen bulls are raring to go, eager to make the most out of every opportunity to extend JPY’s recovery after being bashed for most of this year.

 

200-day SMA key support for USDJPY

Looking at the charts, Yen bulls have struggled to push USDJPY below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) so far this month. This widely-used technical indicator has acted as a crucial support level.

However, this key support level could be broken by hawkish signals out of the BOJ over the coming week.

Hawkish signal = Governor Kuroda confirms that he and his colleagues are willing to review the central bank’s policy settings in 2023.

 

A successful break below its 200-day SMA may even see yen bulls sizing up a new cycle low below 133.620.

 

On the flip side, if the BOJ persists with its dovish messaging, still keeping its policy settings untouched for the foreseeable future, that may prompt USDJPY to retest resistance around the 139 region which has served as a key battle ground between bulls and bears in 2022.

A breach of the psychologically-important 140 mark may invite Yen bears to have USDJPY revisit the previous cycle high around 142.25.


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Murrey Math Lines 15.12.2022 (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

On H4, the quotes are in the oversold area. The RSI has bounced off the support line. An upwards breakaway of 0/8 (0.9277) is expected, followed by growth to the resistance level of 2/8 (0.9521). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level of -1/8 (0.9155). In this case, the quotes may go on falling and reach -2/8 (0.9033).

USDCHFH4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, growth can be supported by a breakaway of the upper border of VoltyChannel.

USDCHF_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

On H4, gold quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates the prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI is testing the support line. In the end, a test of 5/8 (1781.25) is expected, followed by a bounce off it and growth to the resistance level of 6/8 (1812.50). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level of 5/8 (1781.25). In this case, gold quotes may drop to 4/8 (1750.00).

XAUUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the upper line of VoltyChannel is too far away from the current price, hence, growth will be supported by a bounce off 5/8 (1781.25) on H4.

XAUUSD_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 15.12.2022 (EURUSD, BRENT, AUDUSD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is testing the Tenkan-Sen line. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 1.0610 is expected, followed by growth to 1.0935. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.0395, which will mean further falling to 1.0305.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Crude oil is pushing off the lower border of the Cloud. The instrument is going inside the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a flat. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 80.05 is expected, followed by growth to 91.75. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 75.00, which will mean further falling to 70.00. The growth will be confirmed by a breakaway of the upper border of the bearish channel and securing above 85.05.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has secured above the resistance level. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 0.6795 is expected, followed by growth to 0.7005. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 0.6715, which will mean further falling to 0.6620.

AUDUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.12.15

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0631
  • Prev Close: 1.0680
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.46 %

The US Federal Reserve raised its interest rate by 0.5% on Wednesday and raised its rate forecast to a peak of 5.1%. Thus, the Federal Reserve moved to a slower pace of rate hikes and also signaled that rates would reach higher levels than previously expected. At the Fed press conference, Mr. Powell indicated that it is too early to talk about interest rate cuts by the US central bank and that the Fed’s focus is on developing policies that will eventually return inflation to the 2% target.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0580, 1.0549, 1.0483, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284, 1.0193
  • Resistance levels: 1.0695

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become overbought, and there are signs of divergence, which, coupled with the resistance of the higher time frame, may trigger a correction. Under such market conditions, buy trades are better to consider from the support level of 1.0580 or 1.0549, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0695, but it is better with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0446 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.12.15:
  • – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+2);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+2);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2);

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2357
  • Prev Close: 1.2427
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.56 %

In the UK, the consumer inflation rate fell from 11.1% to 10.7% on an annualized basis. Core inflation (a more important indicator because it excludes food and energy prices) fell from 6.5% to 6.3% y/y. After Monday’s positive GDP data, UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt warned that the economy might get worse before it gets better. However, yesterday’s employment data were mostly positive. The Bank of England (BoE) will meet today with the market consensus for a 50 basis point rate hike.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2320, 1.2177, 1.2024, 1.1964, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
  • Resistance levels: 1.2431, 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, and the buyers’ pressure remains, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the support level of 1.2320, but with confirmation on intraday time frames. Sell trades are best looked for from the resistance level of 1.2431, but also better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout since the level has already been

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down from the 1.2100 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2022.12.15:
  • – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 135.57
  • Prev Close: 135.45
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.09 %

The US dollar has lost about 10% of its value against the Japanese yen over the past two months. However, the decrease was mainly due to expectations of a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. The difference in the interest rates between the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve became even bigger after yesterday’s rate hike, so the JPY has no fundamental support from the Bank of Japan in the mid-term perspective.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 134.79, 133.53
  • Resistance levels: 135.90, 137.18, 139.09, 140.75, 143.17, 145.16

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, showing signs of divergence. Sell deals may be searched for from the resistance level of 135.90, provided that there is a reverse reaction. Buy trades are best considered on intraday time frames from the support level of 134.79, but only with confirmation since the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 139.00, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3545
  • Prev Close: 1.3545
  • % chg. over the last day: 0.00 %

Oil prices fell slightly yesterday due to a stronger dollar, and the possibility of further interest rate hikes by global central banks has also added to demand concerns. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so rising oil prices are strengthening the Canadian currency, while falling oil leads to Canadian weakness.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3521, 1.3438, 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
  • Resistance levels: 1.3601, 1.3643, 1.3690, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish. The MACD indicator shows the divergence, which suggests that the technical correction is coming to an end. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.3521, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3601 or 1.3643 but with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or after a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3386, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Murrey Math Lines 14.12.2022 (USDJPY, USDCAD)

By RoboForex.com

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates the prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI has broken through the support line downwards. A test of 3/8 (134.37) is expected, followed by a breakaway and falling to the support level of 2/8 (131.25). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of 4/8 (137.50). In this case, the pair may rise to 5/8 (140.62).

USDJPYH4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is broken away. This indicates prevalence of a downtrend and a high probability of further price falling.

USDJPY_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

On H4, the quotes have bounced off the 200-day Moving Average and are now above it, which indicates prevalence of an uptrend and an end to the correctional movement. The RSI have bounced off the support level. All in all, growth to 8/8 (1.3671) is expected. The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level of 7/8 (1.3549), which might lead to a trend reversal and falling to 6/8 (1.3427).

USDCAD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, a breakaway of the upper border of VoltyChannel will signal further growth of the price.

USDCAD_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 14.12.2022

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The currency pair escaped the consolidation range upwards and exhausted the whole potential of the wave of growth at 1.0670. Today the market is forming an impulse of decline to 1.0594. After this level is reached, growth to 1.0633 will become possible. Then a decline to 1.0540 will follow.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The currency pair escaped the consolidation range upwards to 1.2444. The whole potential of the wave of growth has been exhausted. Today an impulse of decline is expected to develop to 1.2283, followed by growth to 1.2362 and falling to 1.2260.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The currency pair has completed a wave of decline to 134.70. Today a link of decline to 133.60 is not excluded. Then growth to 135.77 and a decline to 131.30 might follow.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The currency pair has escaped the consolidation range downwards. The goal of the wave at 0.9230 has been reached. Today the pair may grow to 0.9310 and fall to 0.9272, growing next thing to 0.9373.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The currency pair escaped the consolidation range upwards and completed a wave of growth to 0.6891. Today a structure of a declining impulse to 0.6813 is forming. Next, growth to 0.6853 and a decline to 0.6755 should follow.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Crude oil is extending the structure of a wave of growth to 82.33. After this level is reached, a correction to 78.78 may follow. Then the pair should grow to 86.00, from where the trend may continue to 89.25. The goal is first.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold escaped the consolidation range upwards. The potential of a wave of growth to 1824.20 has been exhausted, and today the market is forming an impulse of decline to 1796.20. After this level is reached, a link of growth to 1820.20 might follow, and next – a decline to 1786.30.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

The stock index broke through 3997.5 upwards and completed a wave of growth at 4147.0. Today the market has performed an impulse of decline to 3997.5. A link of correction to 4073.0 is not excluded. Then the stock index might fall to 3889.6, from where the trend might continue to 3777.7.

S&P 500

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.12.14

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0531
  • Prev Close: 1.0632
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.96 %

The US consumer inflation rate declined from 7.7% to 7.1% year-over-year. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) also fell from 6.3% to 6.1%. Germany’s inflation rate fell from 10.4% to 10% year-over-year. On the back of such a sharp decline in inflation, investors renewed their interest in risky assets, which led to a sharp drop in the dollar against major currency pairs.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0580, 1.0549, 1.0483, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284, 1.0193
  • Resistance levels: 1.0657, 1.0695

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become overbought, but there are no signs of divergence yet. Under such market conditions, it is best to wait for a small correction. It is better to consider the deals to buy from the support level of 1.0580 or 1.0549, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0657 or 1.0695, but it is better with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0446 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.12.14:
  • – Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2260
  • Prev Close: 1.2364
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.84 %

The UK will publish inflation data today, giving clues as to what interest rate hike the Bank of England will choose on Thursday. Analysts forecast a decline in consumer inflation from 11.1% to 10.9% year-over-year. Core inflation is expected to remain unchanged. If the data coincides with the consensus forecast or is better, the Bank of England will likely raise the interest rate by 0.50% tomorrow. If the data is worse than expected and inflation shows no signs of slowing down, the Bank of England might take a more aggressive step of 0.75%.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2320, 1.2177, 1.2024, 1.1964, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
  • Resistance levels: 1.2431, 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the GBP/USD currency pair trend on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, and buyers’ pressure is still present. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the support level of 1.2320, but with confirmation on intraday time frames. Sell trades are best looked for from the resistance level of 1.2431, but also better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout, as the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.2100 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2022.12.14:
  • – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 137.66
  • Prev Close: 135.57
  • % chg. over the last day: -1.54 %

Japanese producer sentiment worsened in the final quarter of 2022 to its lowest level in almost two years. The reasons are price pressures and the prospect of slower global demand. The study found that both large manufacturers and the service sector expect business conditions to deteriorate further. Because of this, large firms expect to increase capital spending by 19.2% in the current fiscal year. The decline in economic indicators signifies that the Bank of Japan will continue to pursue a soft stimulative economy.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 134.79, 133.53
  • Resistance levels: 135.90, 137.18, 139.09, 140.75, 143.17, 145.16

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, and there are signs of oversold, but without any signs of divergence. Sell deals may be sought from the resistance level of 139.09, provided that there is a reverse reaction. Buy trades are best considered on intraday time frames from the support level of 137.13, but only with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 139.00, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
News feed for 2022.12.14:
  • – Japan Tankan Manufacturing (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Non-Tankan Manufacturing (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3637
  • Prev Close: 1.3543
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.69 %

The oil price surpassed $80 a barrel on Tuesday and recorded its biggest daily gain in more than a month as investors bought up risky assets after US data pointed to a slowdown in inflation. A weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies, which could boost demand. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so rising oil prices are strengthening the Canadian currency.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3521, 1.3438, 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
  • Resistance levels: 1.3601, 1.3643, 1.3690, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish. But sellers prevail inside the day. The price is trading below the moving averages, and the MACD indicator has become negative. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.3521, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3601 or 1.3643, but with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or after a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3386, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
News feed for 2022.12.14:
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.