Forex and Currency News

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 86

COT Currency Speculators drive Euro bullish bets to a 92-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 6th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

British pound sterling & Australian dollar lead Weekly Speculator Changes

COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British pound sterling (8,391 contracts) with the Australian dollar (4,067 contracts), the Euro (2,636 contracts), the Swiss franc (2,017 contracts) and the Japanese yen (1,398 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Mexican peso (-18,134 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (-5,974 contracts), the Brazilian real (-5,439 contracts), the New Zealand dollar (-1,444 contracts), Bitcoin (-257 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-6 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the rising Euro positioning. Large speculators increased their bullish bets for the Euro this week for the seventh time out of the past eight weeks and for the twelfth time out of the past thirteen weeks. The Euro speculator position has gone from a total of -47,676 contracts on August 30th to a total of +124,883 contracts this week for a thirteen-week change of +172,559 contracts. The current speculator standing for the Euro has now ascended to the most bullish level since March 2nd of 2021, a span of ninety-two weeks.

The Euro (EURUSD) price has been on a bullish trend as well since falling to an approximate 20-year low in September at a below parity exchange rate of 0.9593. Since the September low, the Euro has rallied by approximately 9 percent and is now trading at the highest levels since June with this week’s close above the 1.0550 exchange rate.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	45,115	56	24,886	66	-27,540	32	2,654	46
EUR	711,537	84	124,883	73	-160,005	31	35,122	35
GBP	230,311	55	-28,193	45	37,774	60	-9,581	39
JPY	223,424	64	-65,996	28	75,202	72	-9,206	35
CHF	40,171	33	-12,230	22	17,859	74	-5,629	38
CAD	148,891	29	-22,090	15	22,905	88	-815	28
AUD	158,755	51	-40,563	47	42,820	51	-2,257	47
NZD	42,954	36	-6,498	37	6,301	61	197	54
MXN	293,708	93	47,952	48	-53,360	51	5,408	66
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	25,464	7	2,198	48	-4,324	51	2,126	86
Bitcoin	15,769	83	67	78	-568	0	501	24

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & EuroFX

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Bitcoin (78.1 percent) and the EuroFX (73.3 percent) lead the currency markets currently. The US Dollar Index (66.4 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (15.5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and the only currency in an Extreme-Bearish position (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (66.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (66.4 percent)
EuroFX (73.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (44.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (37.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (28.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (22.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (22.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (47.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (36.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (40.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (47.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (55.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (48.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (54.1 percent)
Bitcoin (78.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (82.6 percent)

Japanese Yen tops Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Japanese Yen (22.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (17.1 percent), the British Pound Sterling (16.8 percent), the EuroFX (15.3 percent) and the Australian Dollar (10.1 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-28.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the US Dollar Index (-8.7 percent), the Canadian Dollar (-4.7 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-2.5 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-8.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-13.0 percent)
EuroFX (15.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (22.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (12.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (22.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (16.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-18.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-4.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (5.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (10.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (17.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (35.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (15.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (37.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-28.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-20.2 percent)
Bitcoin (0.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (5.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,892 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.1	4.1	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	65.1	6.6
– Net Position:	24,886	-27,540	2,654
– Gross Longs:	36,157	1,838	5,610
– Gross Shorts:	11,271	29,378	2,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	32.0	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	10.8	-17.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 124,883 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,636 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 122,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.4	51.0	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	73.5	7.0
– Net Position:	124,883	-160,005	35,122
– Gross Longs:	245,063	363,169	85,050
– Gross Shorts:	120,180	523,174	49,928
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	30.6	35.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.3	-18.8	25.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -28,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,391 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	73.3	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	56.9	14.1
– Net Position:	-28,193	37,774	-9,581
– Gross Longs:	28,539	168,838	22,941
– Gross Shorts:	56,732	131,064	32,522
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	59.7	39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-19.6	18.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -65,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,394 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	76.1	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	42.4	15.3
– Net Position:	-65,996	75,202	-9,206
– Gross Longs:	23,589	169,918	24,896
– Gross Shorts:	89,585	94,716	34,102
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.2	72.3	34.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.6	-20.9	12.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.3	70.9	25.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	26.5	39.4
– Net Position:	-12,230	17,859	-5,629
– Gross Longs:	1,343	28,500	10,183
– Gross Shorts:	13,573	10,641	15,812
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.3	74.4	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	-8.7	21.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -22,090 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,116 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	53.3	20.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	37.9	21.4
– Net Position:	-22,090	22,905	-815
– Gross Longs:	30,717	79,379	30,984
– Gross Shorts:	52,807	56,474	31,799
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.5	87.8	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	4.0	-1.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -40,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,630 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	63.7	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.4	36.7	12.0
– Net Position:	-40,563	42,820	-2,257
– Gross Longs:	36,334	101,160	16,814
– Gross Shorts:	76,897	58,340	19,071
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	50.8	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-17.5	30.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,054 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	53.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.1	38.8	7.4
– Net Position:	-6,498	6,301	197
– Gross Longs:	16,302	22,950	3,397
– Gross Shorts:	22,800	16,649	3,200
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	61.3	53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-23.5	41.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 47,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,086 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.5	35.9	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	54.1	0.8
– Net Position:	47,952	-53,360	5,408
– Gross Longs:	177,555	105,410	7,854
– Gross Shorts:	129,603	158,770	2,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.8	50.5	65.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.1	-14.0	-7.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.4	28.6	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.8	45.5	5.7
– Net Position:	2,198	-4,324	2,126
– Gross Longs:	14,625	7,271	3,566
– Gross Shorts:	12,427	11,595	1,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.3	50.6	85.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.9	28.6	-3.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 67 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.2	1.9	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.8	5.5	5.5
– Net Position:	67	-568	501
– Gross Longs:	12,651	306	1,365
– Gross Shorts:	12,584	874	864
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	36.9	24.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.8	-9.1	3.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

09 Dec

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.12.09

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0504
Prev Close: 1.0554
% chg. over the last day: +0.47 %

Initial jobless claims jumped to the highest level since February, indicating that unemployed people need more time to find work. These are the first signs that the US labor market is beginning to “cool down,” which will affect the Fed’s monetary policy toward slowing the rate hikes. The end of the tightening cycle is close.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0483, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284, 1.0193
Resistance levels: 1.0584, 1.0610

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the moving average lines, the MACD indicator is positive again, and buyers’ pressure remains. But now that the price has reached the resistance level, a pullback is possible. It is better to consider buy deals from the support level of 1.0483 but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0584, but it is better with confirmation in the form of reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0332 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.12.09:

– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2199
Prev Close: 1.2236
% chg. over the last day: +0.30 %

The Bank of England will raise the interest rate next week. Analysts are leaning that it will be a 50 bps increase, raising the bank rate to 3.50%. Further, the Bank of England is projected to add another 50 basis points in the first quarter of 2023 and 25 basis points in the second quarter, with medians showing that the bank rate will peak at 4.25%. The UK is almost certainly headed for recession, with economists giving an average 85% chance of a recession within a year. Quarterly forecasts suggest that the economy will contract by 0.4% this year, which fits the technical definition of a recession.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2177, 1.2016, 1.1964, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
Resistance levels: 1.2279, 1.2381, 1.2431

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the average lines. The MACD indicator returned to the positive zone, and there is a slight buying pressure inside the day. Under such market conditions, buy trades are better to look for from the support level of 1.2177, but with confirmation on intraday time frames. Sell trades are best looked for from the resistance level of 1.2279 but also better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down from the 1.1965 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 136.64
Prev Close: 136.67
% chg. over the last day: +0.02 %

According to the Japan Foreign Trade Council, Japan’s exports and imports hit a record high in fiscal 2022 in value terms after rising energy prices and a weaker yen. The country’s trade balance is expected to be negative for the third consecutive year. Imports and exports will rise only slightly, while in value terms, they will both be markedly higher due to higher prices. This suggests that the Bank of Japan will continue to stimulate the economy.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 135.33, 133.53
Resistance levels: 137.42, 139.09, 140.75, 143.17, 145.16

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The MACD indicator has become negative, and sellers’ pressure is increasing. Sell deals can be looked for from the resistance level of 137.24, provided that there is a reverse reaction and change in the structure on the intraday time frames. Buy trades are best considered on intraday time frames from the support level of 135.33, but only with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 138.00, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3654
Prev Close: 1.3591
% chg. over the last day: -0.46 %

The Bank of Canada made it clear this week that the price appreciation cycle is coming to an end as serious signs of slowing economic growth are emerging. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it faces further pressure as oil prices continue to decline, hitting new lows since the beginning of the year amid demand and recession fears. This has led investors to return to safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3518, 1.3438, 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3658, 1.3682, 1.3682, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish. But the price is trading below the moving averages, and the MACD indicator has become negative. The price is correcting. Buy trades should be considered after a slight pullback from the support level of 1.3518 or 1.3438, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3658 but with confirmation in the form of reverse.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3386, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Dec

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 08.12.2022 (XAUUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD)

By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

On H4, at the support level, gold has formed a Harami reversal pattern. Currently, the pair is going by the signal in an ascending wave. The goal of the growth may be 1810.00. Upon testing the resistance level, the pair will get the chance for breaking through it and continuing the uptrend. However, the price may pull back to 1775.00 before further growth.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

On H4, at the support level, the pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern. The pair is now going by the signal in an ascending wave. The goal of the growth may be 0.6450. Upon breaking through the resistance level, the quotes will get the chance to continue the uptrend. However, the price may pull back to 0.6305 before further growth.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

On H4, at the support level, the pair has formed a Doji reversal pattern. The pair may now go by the signal in an ascending wave. The goal of the growth may be the resistance level of 1.2380. However, the price may pull back to 1.2105 before continuing the uptrend.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Dec

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 08.12.2022 (GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD)

By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is correcting by a Wedge reversal pattern. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 1.2155 is expected, followed by growth to 1.2545. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.9175, which will mean further falling to 1.1875. The growth will be confirmed by a breakaway of the upper border of the Wedge and securing above 1.2215.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The currency pair is pushing off the resistance level. The instrument is going below the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a downtrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 137.55 is expected, followed by falling to 131.25. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 139.35, which will mean further growth to 140.25. The falling will be confirmed by a breakaway of the lower border of the bullish channel and securing under 135.85.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is testing the signal lines of the indicator. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 0.6325 is expected, followed by growth to 0.6625. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 0.6205, which will mean further falling to 0.6110.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Dec

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.12.08

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0461
Prev Close: 1.0505
% chg. over the last day: +0.42 %

European Central Bank spokesman Kazimir pointed out yesterday that the inflation figure alone is not enough to slow rates down, so the ECB has plenty of “reasons” to keep tightening. Kazimir is considered among the most hawkish spokespeople and favors a 75 bps rate hike. Also, Kazimir is not convinced that Eurozone inflation has peaked but believes that the Eurozone recession will be short.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0483, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284, 1.0193
Resistance levels: 1.0562, 1.0610

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading at the level of the moving averages, the MACD indicator is positive again, and buying pressure is coming back. Buy trades are best considered from support levels of 1.0483, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0562, but better with confirmation in the form of reverse initiative, as the price may react to the border of the inclined descending channel.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0332 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.12.08:

– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 14:00 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2134
Prev Close: 1.2208
% chg. over the last day: +0.61 %

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt is expected to unveil a series of reforms later this week that will help make London more competitive. The new chancellor wants to reduce cap rules for Britain’s biggest banks and adjust Solvency II rules to make the insurance sector more competitive. Next week, a host of major central banks will announce their latest monetary policy decisions ahead of the Christmas break. The Bank of England is expected to raise its interest rate by 0.5%.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2117, 1.2016, 1.1964, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
Resistance levels: 1.2254, 1.2381, 1.2431

From the technical point of view, the GBP/USD currency pair trend on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator has returned to the positive zone, and there is a slight buying pressure inside the day. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the support level of 1.2127 but with confirmation because the level has already been tested. Sell trades are best looked for on intraday time frames from resistance levels of 1.2254, but they are also better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.1965 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 136.95
Prev Close: 136.58
% chg. over the last day: -0.27 %

Japan’s economy shrank at an annualized rate of 0.8% in real terms over the last quarter, down from 1.2% last quarter. Inflation-adjusted real gross domestic product declined by 0.2% on a quarterly basis. There was a sharp increase in imports in the July-September quarter due to higher energy prices and a sharp weakening of the yen, which inflated the value of imported goods. The increase in imports has a negative impact on GDP, which measures the total value of goods and services produced in a country.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 135.34, 133.53
Resistance levels: 137.15, 139.09, 140.75, 143.17, 145.16

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and the price forms a flat structure. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought on intraday time frames from the support level of 135.34 or from the uptrend line, but only with confirmation. Sell deals can be sought from the resistance level of 137.15, provided there is a reverse reaction and a change in the structure on the intraday time frames.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 139.08, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.12.08:

– Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3648
Prev Close: 1.3652
% chg. over the last day: +0.03 %

The Bank of Canada went for a more aggressive rate hike of 50 bps, although analysts had expected a 25 bps increase. The Bank of Canada’s overnight rate is now 4.25%, the highest since 2008. The Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand currently hold the highest rates of any major economy. The statement indicates that inflation growth has been more robust than expected, while Canada’s labor market remains “tight” and the economy continues to operate in excess demand. Nevertheless, there is growing evidence that monetary tightening is holding back domestic demand, citing slowing consumer spending growth and a weakening housing market.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3637, 1.3520, 1.3438, 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3682, 1.3682, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages. But the MACD indicator shows a strong divergence, and there is a change in the structure of the lower time frames. Buy trades should be considered after a slight pullback from the support level of 1.3637, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3683 but with confirmation in the form of reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3386, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Dec

USDJPY bulls have not given up yet

By ForexTime

The USDJPY currency pair (nickname “the Yen”) on the H4 time frame was in a downtrend until 2 December, when a last lower bottom was recorded at 133.611.

After the bottom at 133.611, the market broke through the 15 and 34 Simple Moving Averages and the Momentum Oscillator broke the 100 baseline into bullish terrain. A possible shift in the market momentum from bearish to bullish was further confirmed with many strong bullish candles driving the price significantly higher to make a higher top.

A possible critical resistance level was formed at a higher top that was reached on 7 December at 137.847. The bears then tried their best to dominate the market again but failed when a higher bottom formed later in the same session at 136.261.

If the Yen manages to break through the critical resistance level at 137.847, then three possible price targets can be considered from there. Attaching the Fibonacci tool to the higher top at 137.847 and dragging it to the support level near the 34 Simple Moving Average at 136.261, the following targets can be calculated. The first target is estimated at 138.827 (161.8%). The second price target can be forecast at 140.413 (261.8%) and the third and final target might be anticipated at 142.979 (423.6%).

If the support level at 136.261 is broken, the above scenario is no longer valid.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

07 Dec

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: Safe Haven Currencies

By ForexTime

The mood across financial markets turned gloomy on Wednesday as disappointing data from China fuelled fears about slowing global economic growth.

European equities were mixed amid the risk-off sentiment while safe-haven currencies appreciated as investors rushed to safety. Generally, safe-haven currencies like the USD, CHF, JPY, and to a lesser degree even EUR are expected to shine during periods of uncertainty. However, their status tends to be tested thanks to shifting market dynamics and developments at home. Our focus today falls on safe-haven currencies with the tool of choice being nothing but technical analysis.

Euro bulls are certainly on a roll today. We can see a similar theme with the Swiss franc which has gained against most of its counterparts. However, the USD is showing a mixed performance, while the Japanese Yen seems to be getting no love at all.

Equally weighted USD technical bounce?

After dipping below the 200-day SMA last week, the equally-weighted USD index has experienced a rebound back toward 1.1950. A strong daily close above this point could threaten the current bearish channel with the next key level found at 1.2184 – a point below the 100-day SMA. Should 1.1950 prove to be reliable resistance, prices may decline back towards 1.1740.

Equally weighted EUR remains bullish

As the subtitle says, FXTM’s equally weighted Euro index remains bullish on the daily charts. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while prices are trading above the MACD. A strong breakout and daily close above 1.26650 could open the doors towards 1.2740. If prices dip back below 1.2550, the next level of interest can be found at 1.2400.

EURJPY hits 50-day SMA

The EURJPY may be back on the rise after support was found above the 100-day SMA. Prices remain in a bullish trend despite periods of weakness with bulls breaking above 144.00. If the upside gains momentum, the next key level of interest can be found at 145.60. If bears re-enter the scene, the EURJPY could descend back towards 141.50.

USDCHF eyes 0.9350

Bears remain in control on the daily charts as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Prices are approaching the 0.9350 support level as of writing. A strong break below this point could trigger a selloff towards 0.9300. Alternatively, a move back above 0.9430 could signal a rally toward 0.9550.

JPY Index back below 100-day SMA

The Japanese Yen index remains choppy and trapped within a pretty wide range on the daily charts with support at 80.15 and resistance at 84.00. Prices are trading below the 100-day SMA and currently balancing above 82.20 as of writing. Weakness below this point could encourage a decline toward 81.30 and 80.15, respectively. A rebound may open a path back towards 83.00 and beyond.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

07 Dec

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 07.12.2022

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The currency pair completed an impulse of decline to 1.0460. Today a consolidation range is forming around this level. An escape downwards and further decline to 1.0388 is expected. After this level is reached, growth to 1.0460 may begin.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The currency pair continues developing a wave of decline to 1.2095. After this level is reached, growth to 1.2205 should begin, followed by a decline to 1.2066.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The currency pair continues growing to 137.85. After this level is reached, we expect a decline to 135.75, from where the trend might continue to 134.10.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The currency pair continues developing the wave of growth to 0.9457. Then a decline to 0.9388 might start, from where the wave might continue to 0.9320.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The currency pair completed a structure of decline to 0.6699. Today the market is forming a consolidation range around this level. With an escape upwards, a pathway for a correction to 0.6755 will open. With an escape downwards, a pathway to 0.6654 will open.

BRENT

Crude oil performed an impulse of decline to 79.00. At the moment, the market is forming a consolidation range above this level. Next, the quotes might escape the range upwards to 83.20, fall to 78.20, and grow again to 84.00, from where the trend may continue to 89.50.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is forming a consolidation range around 1773.00. With an escape upwards, a pathway to 1782.00 will open, from where the quotes should decline to 1755.00. With an escape downwards, a pathway directly to 1755.00 should open.

S&P 500

The stock index is forming a consolidation range around 3972.2. An escape downwards and trend continuation to 3862.7 are expected. After this level is reached, a link of correction to 3972.2 is not excluded. Then a decline to 3840.8 is expected.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

07 Dec

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.12.07

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0484
Prev Close: 1.0463
% chg. over the last day: -0.20 %

European Central Bank spokesman Constantinos Herodotou said on Tuesday that interest rates will continue to rise but are now “very close” to their neutral level. ECB policymakers are repeating the same mantra without saying anything specific. That’s their style. Analysts are leaning that the ECB will raise the interest rate by 0.5% at next week’s meeting.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0446, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284, 1.0193
Resistance levels: 1.0494, 1.0543, 1.0610

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading below the levels of moving averages, the MACD indicator is in the negative zone, and there are signs of sellers’ weakness. Buy trades are best considered from the support levels of 1.0446 or 1.0361, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0494, but it is better with confirmation in the form of reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0332 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.12.07:

– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2173
Prev Close: 1.2132
% chg. over the last day: -0.33 %

The UK Construction Business Activity Index fell to a three-month low. Business expectations were the weakest since May 2020. Rising interest rates, higher borrowing costs, and worries about the economic outlook reduced construction activity. The UK economic outlook remains bleak, but the new government is doing everything it can to cushion the falling economy. Analysts believe that economic indicators will decline until spring-summer 2023, after which they will reach a low and then begin a slow recovery.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2117, 1.2016, 1.1964, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
Resistance levels: 1.2199, 1.2254, 1.2381, 1.2431

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading below the moving levels. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, there is a slight sellers’ pressure inside the day, but the divergence indicates that correction will be completed soon. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the support level of 1.2127, but with confirmation. Sell trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the resistance levels of 1.2199, but also better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down from the 1.1965 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 136.71
Prev Close: 137.04
% chg. over the last day: +0.24 %

Japan’s largest labor union decided last week to call for a wage increase of about 5% next spring, the highest demand in 28 years. The move indicates that Japan intends to fight rising prices by regulating wage levels rather than by changing monetary policy. Bank of Japan spokesman Nakamura also said yesterday that the central bank would continue to maintain a soft monetary policy.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 135.34, 133.53
Resistance levels: 137.65, 139.09, 140.75, 143.17, 145.16

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. But the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, and buyers’ pressure prevails during the day. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought on the intraday time frames from the support level of 135.34 or from the uptrend line, but only with confirmation. Sell deals can be sought from the resistance level of 137.65, provided there is a reverse reaction.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 139.08, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3590
Prev Close: 1.3650
% chg. over the last day: +0.44 %

The Bank of Canada will have an important monetary policy meeting today. Higher inflation, strong economic activity, and a super tight labor market are arguments for another 50 basis point rate hike. Nonetheless, recession fears are on the rise, which means that a rate hike looks close. Traders are counting on a 73% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank of Canada.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3520, 1.3438, 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3658, 1.3682, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are signs of divergence. Buy trades should be considered after a slight pullback from the support level 1.3520, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3658 but with confirmation in the form of reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3386, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.12.07:

– Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Rate Statement at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 Dec

Trade of the week: USDCAD Waits For BoC Rate Decision

By ForexTime

This could be a wild week for the USDCAD due to the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) rate decision on Wednesday.

A sense of tension can already be felt when observing the currency pair which remains wedged within a small range on the hourly timeframe. The USDCAD’s choppy price action and indecision are likely based on last Friday’s jobs report from both the United States and Canada which sent prices on a mini rollercoaster ride.

US employers added more jobs than expected in November, signalling that demand for new workers remained robust despite the Federal Reserve’s war against soaring inflation. Non-farm Payrolls rose by 263,000 in November, smashing the 200,000 estimates but below the upwardly revised 284,000 increase seen in October. In Canada, it was a tepid picture with the economy only adding 10,100 jobs. Although this was the third straight month of increase, the small increase was seen as having limited impacts on the Bank of Canada’s rate decision for December.

Sentiment remains bearish toward the Canadian economy with most economists expecting the country to descend into a technical recession in 2023. With the BoC already shifting into lower gear on rate hikes, this could translate to further Loonie weakness for the rest of 2022 – especially combined with the gloomy sentiment.

Before we discuss what to expect from the USDCAD over the next few days, it is worth keeping in mind that prices remain in a bearish trend on the daily charts. A minor breakout/down could be on the horizon which may pave a path south or north depending on how markets react to the final BoC rate decision for 2022.

The low down…

After peaking at 8.1% back in June 2022, Canada’s annual inflation rate has slowed over the past few months with the current rate at 6.9% in October.

Signs of easing inflationary pressures have encouraged the BoC to adopt a less aggressive approach toward rates. In fact, the central bank is widely expected to hike rates by only 25 basis points on Wednesday which could be the final one before taking a pause. The Canadian economy expanded at an annualized 2.9% on quarter in Q3 2022, which exceeded the forecast of 3.2% and marked a fifth consecutive quarter of growth. Looking ahead, economic growth is forecasted to cool to 0.5% in Q4 according to Bloomberg which will result in GDP expanding by 3.3% in 2022. In the first quarter of 2023, growth is seen contracting -0.5%. With the road ahead for the Canadian economy rocky, this may hit buying sentiment toward the Canadian dollar.

The week ahead…

It’s all about the BoC rate final rate decision for 2022 on Wednesday, December 7th which is expected to conclude with a 25 basis-point rate hike. This decision is widely expected despite the better-than-expected Q3 GDP and somewhat tight labour market.

However, much attention will be directed toward the press conference by Governor Macklem which could provide key insight into the monetary policy path for 2023. Although economic data has been painting a positive picture since the October meeting, most economists expect the country to descend into a technical recession in 2023. This sentiment is likely to keep BoC hawks at bay, reducing the possibility of a surprise 50 basis-point hike.

Other factors to watch out for…

The oil-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) appreciated on Monday, drawing strength from OPEC’s Sunday meeting.

Oil prices edged higher after OPEC+ decided to stick with the game plan to cut output. Although production was kept unchanged, the cartel stated that it would take “immediate” action if needed to stabilise global oil markets. Another factor supporting the Loonie is the European Union imposing a price cap on Russian oil. These factors could keep the Canadian dollar buoyed ahead of the BoC rate decision.

What next for the USDCAD?

On the daily chart, the USDCAD remains in a bearish trend with prices currently bouncing within a small range. Prices are trading below the 50-day SMA but still above both the 100-day and 200-day. A solid breakdown below 1.3390 could encourage a decline toward 1.3230 and 1.3050, respectively. Should prices break above 1.3500, bulls could be inspired to challenge 1.3600 and 1.3750.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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