The currency pair is testing the upper border of the Triangle pattern. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 1.0360 is expected, followed by growth to 1.0765. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.0245, which will mean further falling to 1.0155. The growth can be supported by a breakaway of the upper border of the Triangle pattern and securing above 1.0555.
XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
Gold is getting ready to break through the resistance level. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 1755 is expected, followed by growth to 1855. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the upper border of the descening channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1725, which will mean further falling to 1675.
USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”
The currency pair is correcting in a bullish channel. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 1.3375 is expected, followed by growth to 1.3750. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.3315, which will mean further falling to 1.3220.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
The market major on Thursday is growing. The current quote is 1.0450.
Yesterday was full of statistics, but the key catalyst was different. Activity of investors heated up after the speech of the head of the US Fed Jerome Powell. He confirmed that the next increase in the interest rate might be more modest that the previous ones.
The idea is to raise the interest rate by 50 base points instead of 75 points, like it used to be raised for several meetings in a row. Simultaneously, Powell mentioned that the monetary policy on the whole would remain limiting at least for some time in the future – until there appear some confirmations that the inflation has subsided.
So, according to the CME observations, the market now considers a 50 base point increase of the rate to be 75% possible, so that at the meeting on 14 December the interest rate will reach 4.50% y/y. As for inflation, Powell acknowledged that it was too early to celebrate victory.
It seems that all that Powell has said lately are the main highlights for understanding the future steps of the regulator. Let us just stick to them.
For the USD, the slow-down in the growth of the interest rate became a negative signal.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Eurozone’s inflation eased in November from 10.6 to 10% y/y due to falling energy prices. Core inflation remained stable at 5%. Nevertheless, economists warn that lower inflation is unlikely to prevent the European Central Bank from raising interest rates as food inflation continues to rise. Whether this is the peak of overall inflation remains to be seen. But the current economic situation could push the European Central Bank to hike less by 50 basis points next month.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284, 1.0193, 1.0092, 1.0043, 0.9968
Resistance levels: 1.0444, 1.0504
The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is in the positive zone with no signs of reversal. Buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0361, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0444, but it is better with confirmation in the form of reverse initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0284 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
News feed for 2022.12.01:
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Spanish Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
– Italian Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:45 (GMT+3);
– French Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:50 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.1958
Prev Close: 1.2056
% chg. over the last day: +0.82 %
A Bank of England spokesman said yesterday that UK inflation will fall rapidly in the 2nd half of 2023. But it is not yet the reason how this will happen, as at the moment, the UK labor market remains weak, and household incomes are shrinking. The Bank of England intends to raise interest rates at the next meeting, which will put even more pressure on the economy.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.2015, 1.1964, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418, 1.1172, 1.1093
Resistance levels: 1.2113, 1.2147, 1.2167
From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the moving levels. The MACD indicator became positive, and the buyers’ pressure inside the day. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support level of 1.2015, but with confirmation. Sell trades are best sought on intraday time frames from resistance levels of 1.2113, but also better with confirmation, as the level has already been tested.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.1900 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
News feed for 2022.12.01:
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 138.63
Prev Close: 138.08
% chg. over the last day: -0.40%
Japan refrained from intervening in the foreign exchange market in November, the Treasury Department said Wednesday, as rumors grew that the US Federal Reserve would slow the pace of rate hikes as inflation peaked. Weaker-than-expected US inflation data this month somewhat diminished the prospect of aggressive rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. At the same time, the Bank of Japan remains committed to ultra-low interest rates.
From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but on higher time frames, a divergence is formed, which indicates a certain weakness of the sellers. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be looked for on intraday time frames from the support level of 136.49, but only with confirmation. Selling could be sought from the resistance level of 137.65 or 139.09, provided there is a reverse reaction.
Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 140.75, the uptrend will likely resume.
News feed for 2022.12.01:
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3).
The USD/CAD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.3578
Prev Close: 1.3414
% chg. over the last day: -1.22 %
Dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and signs of declining inflation in the US raised hopes that the Central Bank would be less aggressive about raising interest rates. The dollar index began to lose ground on such statements, and as a result, USD/CAD went down. The Biden administration is keeping its promise to cut the use of oil reserves in the US, which contributes to the maximum reduction of crude oil reserves in the country in a week. This helped oil prices rise by 3%, which is good for the Canadian currency, as it’s a commodity currency.
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish. But the price is close to changing a priority. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone with no signs of reversal. Sellers’ pressure is still present. Buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3386 or 1.3360, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3479 but with confirmation in the form of reverse initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3386, the downtrend will likely resume.
News feed for 2022.12.01:
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde showed her hawkish side on Monday, pointing out that inflation is not yet at its peak, thus adding more uncertainty to what further action the ECB will take. Isabel Schnabel warned last week against further monetary tightening. At the same time, the ECB’s chief economist Philip Lane posted a dovish blog post on Friday, speaking out against aggressive rate hikes and higher wage growth this year as a sign of higher structural inflation.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.0361, 1.0284, 1.0193, 1.0092, 1.0043, 0.9968
Resistance levels: 1.0420, 1.0504
The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. But the price is trading at the level of moving averages, and the MACD indicator is in the negative zone, indicating some weakness of the buyers. The price is adjusting. Buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0361, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0421, but it is better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0194 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
News feed for 2022.11.29:
– Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.2054
Prev Close: 1.1954
% chg. over the last day: -0.83 %
Britain won’t meet its energy goals without tens of billions of pounds in additional funding for a new government program to make homes more energy efficient. Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy Minister Grant Shapps said Monday that the government would spend an additional 1 billion pounds ($1.2 billion) on a new plan to insulate homes in A to D council tax bands that people with lower to middle incomes typically own. Additional spending outside the announced budget will create negative investor sentiment.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.1945, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418, 1.1172, 1.1093, 1.0915, 1.0817
Resistance levels: 1.2043, 1.2147, 1.2167
From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading higher at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become negative, and there is a slight sellers’ pressure inside the day. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the support level of 1.1945, but with confirmation. Sell trades are best sought on intraday time frames from resistance levels of 1.2043, but they are also better with confirmation.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.1800 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
News feed for 2022.11.29:
– UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+3).
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 139.25
Prev Close: 138.90
% chg. over the last day: -0.25 %
Japan’s unemployment rate remained at 2.6%. The number of people with jobs is up about half a million from a year ago, mainly due to growth in the hotel and medical sectors. While the numbers show that good working conditions will put upward pressure on wages, they still show that labor market tightness remains well below pre-pandemic levels. The numbers have not led to the wage growth sought by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who has repeatedly said that Japan needs wages to grow at about 3% to meet the central bank’s 2% sustainable inflation target.
From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive. The price is traded at the level of moving averages, and a narrow price range is formed. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought on the intraday time frames from the support level of 137.65, but only with confirmation, since the level has already been tested. Sell deals can be sought from the resistance level of 139.23, provided that there is a reversal or a false breakout.
Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 145.84, the uptrend will likely resume.
News feed for 2022.11.29:
– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+3);
The USD/CAD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.3390
Prev Close: 1.3494
% chg. over the last day: +0.77 %
Canada’s current account balance (seasonally adjusted) recorded an $11.1 billion deficit in the third quarter after a surplus in the first two quarters of 2022. This deficit mainly reflects a much lower surplus in goods and a higher deficit in investment income. Meanwhile, direct investment abroad exceeded direct investment in Canada, resulting in a net outflow of $12.9 billion. This is a negative sign for the Canadian dollar, which is now strengthening only due to rising oil prices.
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. But the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, and there is buying pressure on the lower time frames inside the day. Sharp fluctuations in oil prices create big uncertainty in the price. The oil market is extremely tense right now due to the introduction of the price ceiling and the turmoil in China, the largest importer. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3479, but with confirmation. Buy trades are worth considering on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3386, but also with additional confirmation.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3508, the uptrend will likely resume.
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
The quotes are pushing off the support level, going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud is expected at 1.1935, followed by growth to 1.2475. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.1565, which will indicate further falling to 1.1475.
USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”
The pair is getting ready to break through the support level, going under the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a downtrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line is expected at 139.40, followed by falling to 133.65. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 142.55, which will entail further growth to 143.45.
AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”
The pair is correctimg by a Triangle pattern, going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud is expected at 0.6635, followed by growth to 0.7015. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 0.6545, which will indicate further falling to 0.6455. The growth can be confirmed by a breakaway of the upper border of the Triangle pattern and securing above 0.6805.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which signifies an uptrend. The RSI is testing the support line. Currently, we should expect the quotes to rise over 5/8 (1.0376) and grow to the resistance level of 6/8 (1.0498). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level of 4/8 (1.0253). In this case, the pair may drop to 3/8 (1.0131).
On M15, the upper line of VoltyChannel is too far away from the current price, so growth can only be pointed on by a breakaway of 5/8 (1.0376) on H4.
GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
On H4, the quotes remain in the overbought area. The RSI has escaped the overbought area and continues declining. We should expect a downward breakaway of +1/8 (1.1962) and subsequent falling to the support level of 8/8 (1.1718). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance at +2/8 (1.2207), which will entail reshuffling of the Murrey grid, so that new goals will be set.
On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is broken away, which increases the probability of price falling to 8/8 (1.1718) on H4.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Many European countries will update their inflation data this week. This data, along with the labor market report, will give more clarity to ECB officials on which rate hike step to choose at the December meeting. Some ECB officials are leaning towards a 50 basis point hike, while others are leaning towards a 75 bps hike. If this week’s data shows that inflationary pressures are at least not increasing, no doubt the ECB will favor the 0.5% step. Economists expect all economies except Spain to show a slowdown in inflation.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.0340, 1.0284, 1.0193, 1.0092, 1.0043, 0.9968
Resistance levels: 1.0408, 1.0504
The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. But the price is trading below the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is negative again. The price is adjusting. Buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0340 but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0408, but better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0194 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
News feed for 2022.11.28:
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3).
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.2109
Prev Close: 1.2092
% chg. over the last day: -0.14 %
The Bank of England will release several financial reports this week, including consumer credit, secured lending, and mortgage approvals. Several business reports will also be released, including the CBI distribution trade survey. Sales data showed that Britons spent less money on Black Friday than last year, even though the number of transactions was up 3.2%. Energy-saving products led purchases as Britons look to save money on their energy bills.
From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading higher at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator has turned negative, and there is slight sellers’ pressure during the day. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the support level of 1.2043, but with confirmation. Sell trades are best sought on intraday time frames from resistance levels of 1.2147 or 1.2167, but they are also better with confirmation.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.1800 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
There is no news feed for today.
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 138.57
Prev Close: 139.13
% chg. over the last day: +0.40 %
The situation on the currency pair USD/JPY remains the same. The Bank of Japan intends to keep its monetary policy soft till spring 2023, while the US Federal Reserve is on the path of tightening and plans at least two more interest rate hikes. The difference between the rates will put negative pressure on the Japanese Yen, so fundamentally, it is too early to expect a reversal in the USD/JPY.
From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but the sellers’ strength is insignificant. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be searched for on intraday time frames from the support level of 138.50, but only with confirmation. Sell deals can be searched from the resistance level of 140.75 under the condition of a reverse reaction or a false breakdown.
Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 145.84, the uptrend will likely resume.
There is no news feed for today.
The USD/CAD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.3337
Prev Close: 1.3377
% chg. over the last day: +0.30 %
The Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve have taken an aggressive stance on interest rate increases this year in an attempt to stem rampant inflation. On the one hand, the result of this policy has been a slowdown in inflation indicators. On the other hand, economic indicators have fallen. The Bank of Canada’s upcoming interest rate decision in December will depend on key data such as the latest employment data and wage trends to be released this week. For now, analysts are predicting that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates by 0.25% in December before taking a pause.
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The price has corrected to the support levels. But the MACD indicator is in the positive zone. On the lower time frames inside the day, purchases are observed. The best way to sell is to consider the resistance level of 1.3458, but with confirmation. Buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3386, but also with additional confirmation.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3508, the uptrend will likely resume.
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates the prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI has broken through the ascending trendline downwards. As a result, we should expect a test of 2/8 (140.62), a breakaway, and falling to the support level of 1/8 (139.06). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of 3/8 (142.18). In this case, the pair may rise to 4/8 (143.75).
On M15, a breakaway of the lower line of VoltyChannel will increase the probability of a decline.
USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”
The situation with the USDCAD pair is similar. On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, and the RSI has broken through the ascending trendline. A breakaway of 1/8 (1.3305) is expected, followed by falling to 0/8 (1.3183). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of 2/8 (1.3427). In this case, the pair may reach 3/8 (1.3549).
On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is broken away. This indicates a downtrend and a high probability of further falling.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
ECB officials are still trying to decide which interest rate hike should be chosen at the December meeting. The main discussions are between the steps of 50 and 75 bps. Analysts think that considering the first signs of an inflation slowdown in the Eurozone, ECB will not raise the rate aggressively and, therefore, will stop at the step of 0.5%.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.0193, 1.0092, 1.0043, 0.9968
Resistance levels: 1.0341, 1.0504
From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading at the level of the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is positive again. For buy deals, it is best to wait for the completion of the corrective movement to the support levels of 1.0193, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0341 inside the day, but it is also better with confirmation.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 0.9993 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
News feed for 2022.11.23:
– Eurozone France Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone France Services PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 19:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.1821
Prev Close: 1.1884
% chg. over the last day: +0.53 %
According to a new report from the influential Paris-based OECD group, economic growth in the UK lags behind the world’s largest economies after the Covid-19 pandemic and is well below average. The G-7 countries, which include Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the US, and the UK, have collectively grown GDP by 2.5%, with only the UK registering a decline. That is the reason why the UK government first needs to regain investor confidence.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418, 1.1172, 1.1093, 1.0915, 1.0817
Resistance levels: 1.1921
From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator is inactive, and a flat structure is formed in the form of a narrowing triangle pattern. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the support level of 1.1684, but with confirmation. It is best to look for sell trades on intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.1921, but it is also better with confirmation because the level has already been tested.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down from the 1.1418 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
News feed for 2022.11.23:
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 142.07
Prev Close: 141.21
% chg. over the last day: -0.61 %
Japan’s weighted average inflation rate, tracked as an indicator of whether price growth is expanding, reached a record 1.1% in October, indicating that inflationary pressures due to rising commodity and labor costs are intensifying. Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is affected by fuel and energy costs, the weighted median inflation rate is useful for tracking how broadly prices are rising. According to analysts, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may change its ultra-low interest rates if wages rise in tandem with inflation next year.
From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. But the price is approaching the priority change level. The MACD indicator has become inactive again, and the flat structure is being formed again. Under such market conditions, traders can look to buy trades on the intraday time frames from the support level of 140.75 or 139.44, but only with confirmation. Sell positions can be looked for from the resistance level of 143.17, provided that there is a reversal or a false breakdown.
Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 145.84, the uptrend will likely resume.
There is no news feed for today. It’s a bank holiday.
The USD/CAD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.3449
Prev Close: 1.3372
% chg. over the last day: -0.58 %
Statistics Canada said retail sales in September fell by 0.5%, in line with market estimates. This is below the 0.4% gain in August. On an annualized basis, retail sales rose to 6.9%. However, retail sales fell by 1% in the third quarter, which is the first quarterly decline since 2020. Against the backdrop of weakening retail sales, USD/CAD quotes declined due to heightened recession fears.
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The price has corrected to the support levels. The MACD indicator became negative, and within the day, there was slight sellers’ pressure. The best way to sell is to consider the resistance level of 1.3508, but with confirmation. Buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3351 or 1.3281, but with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3508, the uptrend will likely resume.
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
The pair is correcting inside a bullish channel. The instrument is going inside the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a flat. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 1.0125 is expected, followed by growth to 1.0575. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.0015, which will mean further falling to 1.0025. The growth will be confirmed by a breakaway of the upper border of the correctional channel and securing above 1.0335.
AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”
The pair is testing the lower border of a bullish Wolfe Waves pattern. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 0.6545 is expected, followed by growth to 0.6785. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 0.6475, which will mean further falling to 0.6385. The growth will be confirmed by a breakaway of the upper border of the correctional channel and securing above 0.6655.
GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
The pair is squeezed in a Triangle pattern. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 1.1805 is expected, followed by growth to 1.2255. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the Triangle pattern. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.1475, which will mean further falling to 1.1485. The growth will be confirmed by a breakaway of the upper border of the Triangle and securing above 1.1925
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
