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Large Currency Speculators trimmed Euro bullish bets after run to 100-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Brazilian Real & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (20,796 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (3,267 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,277 contracts), the US Dollar Index (820 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (573 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (524 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-16,247 contracts) with the British Pound (-9,414 contracts), Japanese Yen (-9,134 contracts), Mexican Peso (-4,650 contracts) and Bitcoin (-304 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies data is this week’s breather in the highly bullish Euro currency speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for the Euro dropped this week by the most in the past twenty-four weeks. This week’s shortfall, however, follows a strong bullish run that had seen positions rise in fourteen out of the previous seventeen weeks, going from a total of -47,676 contracts on August 30th to a new 100-week high last week at a total of +146,621 contracts and the highest since January of 2021. Despite this week’s decline, the Euro positions have now been above +100,000 contracts for the past ten weeks which marks the best run since 2021.

The Euro price has been in an uptrend since bottoming in September and has shot higher against the US Dollar since US inflationary data has started to cool. The Euro/US Dollar exchange rate closed just below the 1.0700 level this week after having been right at parity (1.0000) as recently as November 22nd.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	41,850	49	17,761	55	-20,204	44	2,443	43
EUR	712,030	74	129,915	75	-174,081	27	44,166	49
GBP	205,722	40	-20,301	52	29,692	54	-9,391	40
JPY	172,590	33	-46,864	40	46,773	58	91	54
CHF	33,250	12	-2,854	47	6,431	56	-3,577	45
CAD	138,995	23	-26,766	10	24,541	89	2,225	35
AUD	132,960	32	-36,267	51	39,595	48	-3,328	44
NZD	29,773	6	7,480	74	-8,170	27	690	60
MXN	245,029	70	-56,376	3	50,262	94	6,114	94
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	37,987	24	28,211	76	-29,648	24	1,437	78
Bitcoin	14,530	74	389	84	-578	0	189	17

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (84 percent) and the Brazilian Real (76 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (75 percent), New Zealand Dollar (74 percent) and the US Dollar Index (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (3 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (40 percent) and the Swiss Franc (47 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (54.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (53.2 percent)
EuroFX (74.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (79.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (51.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (59.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (40.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (45.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (47.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (43.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (51.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (50.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (74.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (72.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (3.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (5.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (76.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.9 percent)
Bitcoin (83.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (89.0 percent)

Swiss Franc & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Swiss Franc (31 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (21 percent), the British Pound (13 percent) and the Japanese Yen (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-51 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-18 percent), US Dollar Index (-11 percent) and Bitcoin (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-10.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-16.5 percent)
EuroFX (2.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (10.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (18.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (11.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (17.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (33.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-18.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-20.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (6.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (7.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (31.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (-51.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-51.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (20.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-1.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-5.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (2.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 820 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.3	3.8	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.8	52.1	7.4
– Net Position:	17,761	-20,204	2,443
– Gross Longs:	33,171	1,588	5,538
– Gross Shorts:	15,410	21,792	3,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.6	43.7	43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	12.3	-15.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 129,915 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16,247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 146,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	54.8	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	79.2	5.8
– Net Position:	129,915	-174,081	44,166
– Gross Longs:	222,543	389,861	85,209
– Gross Shorts:	92,628	563,942	41,043
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.9	26.6	49.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-4.6	14.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -20,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,887 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	65.8	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.1	51.3	15.3
– Net Position:	-20,301	29,692	-9,391
– Gross Longs:	43,625	135,314	22,168
– Gross Shorts:	63,926	105,622	31,559
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	54.3	39.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-14.8	12.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -46,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	68.3	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	41.2	15.7
– Net Position:	-46,864	46,773	91
– Gross Longs:	25,377	117,959	27,267
– Gross Shorts:	72,241	71,186	27,176
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.0	58.5	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-15.3	27.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,854 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,277 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,131 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	48.9	31.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	29.6	41.8
– Net Position:	-2,854	6,431	-3,577
– Gross Longs:	6,632	16,274	10,322
– Gross Shorts:	9,486	9,843	13,899
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	55.6	45.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.7	-21.1	3.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,766 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,033 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.3	55.8	22.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.6	38.2	21.3
– Net Position:	-26,766	24,541	2,225
– Gross Longs:	25,497	77,624	31,870
– Gross Shorts:	52,263	53,083	29,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.9	89.2	34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.0	9.9	6.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -36,267 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 524 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	56.2	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.8	26.4	15.9
– Net Position:	-36,267	39,595	-3,328
– Gross Longs:	35,208	74,724	17,847
– Gross Shorts:	71,475	35,129	21,175
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.2	48.4	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-7.8	9.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,480 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.9	41.6	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	69.0	10.6
– Net Position:	7,480	-8,170	690
– Gross Longs:	13,366	12,378	3,842
– Gross Shorts:	5,886	20,548	3,152
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	27.2	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.5	-31.2	16.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -56,376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,726 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.5	43.0	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.6	22.5	0.8
– Net Position:	-56,376	50,262	6,114
– Gross Longs:	131,201	105,401	8,078
– Gross Shorts:	187,577	55,139	1,964
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1	4.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.3	93.8	93.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-51.0	50.2	-3.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 28,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 20,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,415 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.5	7.3	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	85.4	4.4
– Net Position:	28,211	-29,648	1,437
– Gross Longs:	32,105	2,779	3,096
– Gross Shorts:	3,894	32,427	1,659
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.1	24.0	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-20.4	-0.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 693 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.8	0.5	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.2	4.5	6.3
– Net Position:	389	-578	189
– Gross Longs:	11,747	73	1,103
– Gross Shorts:	11,358	651	914
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.7	36.4	17.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	21.0	-2.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

07 Jan

Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal & Ultra 10-Year Bonds lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 3rd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a gain of 27.0 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 156,568 net contracts this week with a rise of 9,695 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is now at a 91.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a small gain of 2.2 this week. The speculator position registered -4,301 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -980 contracts in speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Bitcoin speculator level resides at a 83.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -5.5 this week. The speculator position was 389 net contracts this week with a change of -304 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 76.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 20.9 this week. The speculator position was 28,211 net contracts this week with a rise by 20,796 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level sits at a 75.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.9 this week. The speculator position was 1,362 net contracts this week with a small gain of 190 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.1 this week. The speculator position was -113,357 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -30,091 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is at a 3.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -51.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -56,376 net contracts this week with a decrease of -4,650 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level resides at a 4.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.6 this week. The speculator position was 227,607 net contracts this week with a drop by -20,011 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 4.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -652,919 net contracts this week with a small rise by 2,609 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

Wheat

Finally, the Wheat speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 7.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.7 this week. The speculator position was -32,291 net contracts this week with an increase by 3,998 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

06 Jan

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.01.06

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0602
Prev Close: 1.0521
% chg. over the last day: -0.77 %

Today, the US will publish an important Nonfarm Payroll report. Analysts forecast that the data will show a number of 200,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate will remain unchanged. Such data may return strength to the dollar index, as a robust labor market gives the US Federal Reserve more room to act, including bringing the interest rate to the desired level in 2 meetings instead of 3. Conversely, a deterioration in labor market data, on the other hand, would indicate that the US Fed would act more softly, which is negative for the dollar.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0514, 1.0528, 1.0483, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284
Resistance levels: 1.0574, 1.0589, 1.0650, 1.0695

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bullish. The price is trading below the moving averages but above the change of priority, which is a support level of 1.0514. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone but indicates a divergence, which limits the potential for further decline. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0514 on intraday time frames. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0574 or 1.0589, but better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0514 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.06:

– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2053
Prev Close: 1.1910
% chg. over the last day: -1.20 %

The US Federal Reserve said this week that it does not expect a rate cut this year. Considering the fact that the Bank of England has very limited room for maneuver because the economy is already in recession, the interest rate differential between the Bank of England and the US Fed will have a negative impact on the GBP/USD quotes in the medium term. But it should be noted that the market is pricing in future scenarios. The US Fed is halting rate hikes this year, and this pause may play into the hands of the British currency.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1893, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
Resistance levels: 1.1944, 1.2000, 1.2100, 1.2166, 1.2218, 1.2308, 1.2431, 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price is trading below the moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there is divergence in higher time frames. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.1893, but with confirmation. It is better to look for sell trades from the resistance level of 1.2000, but it is also better with a confirmation in the form of a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2100 resistance level and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.06:

– UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 132.55
Prev Close: 133.41
% chg. over the last day: +0.65 %

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) continued unscheduled bond purchases for the fourth straight day as Governor Kuroda confirmed that the Central Bank would continue monetary policy easing to achieve its sustainable price target. The prevailing view among investors is that the BoJ will raise its yield cap even higher or get rid of it altogether if inflation continues to rise in Japan. This situation does not play in favor of the Japanese yen.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 133,45, 132.92, 132.05, 130.58, 129.65
Resistance levels: 134.45, 135.88, 137.03, 138.00, 139.09

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY has changed to bullish. The price is now trading above the moving averages, while the MACD indicator has become positive, indicating buying pressure inside the day. But the divergence indicates that the upside potential is already limited. Buy trades are best considered after a slight correction to support levels of 133.45 or 132.92, but only with confirmation. Sell deals can be looked for from the level of resistance 134.45, provided that there is a reverse reaction or a false breakout, as the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below the support level of 132.92, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.06:

– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3477
Prev Close: 1.3568
% chg. over the last day: +0.67 %

The fall in oil prices stopped on Thursday, but it was not enough to give optimism to the Canadian dollar as the dollar index rose significantly ahead of the Nonfarm report. Investors are returning to the dollar, with the expectation that the US labor market remains solid, and this will allow the US Federal Reserve to be more decisive in future meetings.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3561, 1.3513, 1.3439, 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3604, 1.3640, 1.3700, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is still bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages again. The MACD indicator has returned to positive territory, and buying prevails during the day. Buy trades should be considered from the support at 1.3561 or 1.3513, but with confirmation. Sell deals are better to look for on the intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.3604, but with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative on the lower timeframes or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3513, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.06:

– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

06 Jan

Week Ahead: Can US Dollar fend off “death cross”?

By ForexTime

The US inflation outlook, and how it’ll impact the Fed’s plans for raising US interest rates, is set to come into sharpened focus over the coming week which also features these major data releases and events:

Monday, January 9

EUR: Eurozone November unemployment; Germany November industrial production
GBP: BOE’s Huw Pill speech
USD: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Tuesday, January 10

GBPUSD: Speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and BOE Governor Andrew Bailey
World Bank set to release global economic prospects report

Wednesday, January 11

AUD: Australia November inflation and retail sales

Thursday, January 12

AUD: Australia November external trade
CNH: China December CPI and PPI
USD: US December CPI; weekly initial jobless claims
USD: Fed speak – Speeches by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin

Friday, January 13

CNH: China December external trade
GBP: UK November GDP, industrial production, trade balance
EUR: Eurozone November industrial production
USD: US January consumer sentiment
S&P 500: US earnings season kicks off

This time last week, we contemplated whether the US dollar would falter at the onset of 2023.

So far in this first trading week of the year, the equally-weighted USD Index has held up pretty well, even testing the key 200-day SMA / 50% Fibonacci resistance levels that we pointed out in our previous Week Ahead article (published Dec 30th):

Still, to be fair, this article is being published before this first week of 2023 is over.

We’ve still got the marquee US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) due in just a few hours today (Friday, January 6th).

Even as we wait for the pivotal US jobs report, the astute investor and trader would already be keeping an eye on the coming week.

And looking at the charts, one can’t help but notice that the USD Index appears headed for a “death cross”.

What is a “death cross”?

The death cross occurs when an asset’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses below its 200-day counterpart.

Investors and traders take such an event as confirmation of the downtrend for that particular asset’s prices.

This technical event is widely viewed as a “bearish” sign, suggesting that prices would decline further after the “death cross”.

For example, the last time this USD Index witnessed a “death cross” was back in July 2020.

After such a bearish technical event, this index then fell by a further 9.7%, before reaching bottom at 1.04399 in February 2021.

What could push the USD Index closer to a death cross?

If the US inflation data due on January 12th comes in lower than expected, that should drag the dollar even lower.

Markets are currently expecting the December consumer price index (CPI) – which measures headline inflation – to register a 6.6% advance compared to December 2021.

If so, that 6.6% would be significantly lower from the 40-year high of 9.1% that was registered back in June 2022, though still three times higher than the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

Recall the reason for these Fed rate hikes = it’s to subdue US inflation.

Also, recall how the buck has been reacting to market expectations surrounding US interest rates:

For the first 3 quarters of 2022, the US dollar drew tremendous strength from the notion that the Fed will send rates even higher, which the central bank did.
The US dollar then faltered since October as markets begin to believe that the Fed is close to being done with its aggressive rate hikes.
Adding to the dollar’s weakness in recent months is the idea that the Fed may even have to cut interest rates later in 2023 in order to offset the risk of dragging the world’s largest economy into a recession.

Potential scenarios for USD Index in response to CPI release:

1) Dollar down: If markets are given further evidence that US inflation is further subsiding, that should give the Fed less of a need to send interest rates much higher.

Such hopes may drag the USD Index back lower to the 1.170 region, and potentially see this USD Index form a death cross.

2) Dollar up: If next week’s US inflation print exceeds the market forecasts of 6.6%, that implies that the Fed has more to do to combat stubborn inflation.

Such a hawkish narrative may well send this USD Index upwards to test its 50-day SMA (around 1.20) as the immediate resistance level, while perhaps delaying the formation of a “death cross” for a while longer.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

05 Jan

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.01.05

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0545
Prev Close: 1.0603
% chg. over the last day: +0.55 %

According to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, Federal Reserve policymakers agreed that an extended period of restrictive policy would be needed to cool “unacceptably high” inflation. The Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its rate target to a range of 5% to 5.25%. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari predicts the Fed will raise rates to 5.4%, after which the Central Bank will take a long pause. Markets expect the Fed to raise rates by 0.25% at its next meeting on February 1, with an 84% probability of such a scenario.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0574, 1.0554, 1.0528, 1.0483, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284
Resistance levels: 1.0640, 1.0664, 1.0695

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bullish. The price is trading at the level of moving averages and above the priority change level. The MACD indicator is positive again. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0574 or 1.0554 on intraday time frames. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0640 but better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0528 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.05:

– Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1965
Prev Close: 1.2057
% chg. over the last day: +0.77 %

In the macro outlook for 2023, Goldman Sachs analysts forecast a 1.2% decline in UK real GDP, well below all other G-10 countries. According to the report, the Eurozone and the UK are already in recession, and more stretched-out increases in energy bills will push inflation to higher peaks than in other countries. High inflation will affect real personal income, consumption, and industrial production. Investors are dumping the sterling, believing that a weakening UK economy will prevent the Bank of England from being as hawkish as its peers.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2000, 1.1944, 1.1893, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
Resistance levels: 1.2100, 1.2166, 1.2218, 1.2308, 1.2431, 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. But yesterday, the price rose sharply and approached the priority change level. The MACD indicator became positive, and the buyers dominated inside the day. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the intraday timeframes from the support level 1.2000 or 1.1944, but with confirmation. Sell trades are best looked for from the resistance level of 1.2166, but they are also better with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2100 resistance level and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.05:

– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 131.01
Prev Close: 132.64
% chg. over the last day: +1.24 %

According to the latest S&P Global PMI data, the decline in Japan’s manufacturing sector worsened in the last month of the year. The Manufacturing Business Activity Index fell from 49.0 to 48.9, the second consecutive month of declining activity. Weak global economic trends led to a steady decline in production and a drop in new orders. Companies have markedly reduced purchases of inputs, and optimism has weakened to its highest level since May.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 130.58, 129.65, 128.85
Resistance levels: 132.92, 133.58, 134.45, 135.88, 137.03, 138.00, 139.09

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. But the price is now trading above the moving averages, while the MACD indicator has become positive, indicating buying pressure inside the day. Buy trades are best considered on intraday time frames from the support level of 130.58, but only with confirmation. Sell deals can be looked for from the resistance level of 132.92, provided there is a reversal.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 132.92, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3665
Prev Close: 1.3477
% chg. over the last day: -1.39 %

Global growth concerns, along with growing COVID-19 problems in China (the largest oil importer) caused the black gold price to drop another 5% yesterday. The overall drop in oil over the last 2 days was almost 10%. Considering that the Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and is highly correlated with the dollar index and oil prices, the prices of USD/CAD continued to decline sharply on Wednesday. With China increasing its export quotas for petroleum products in the first batch for 2023, indicating expectations of low domestic demand, the oil may continue to fall, which is negative for the Canadian currency.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3478, 1.3439, 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3530, 1.3604, 1.3640, 1.3700, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is close to changing to bearish. The price is trading below the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become deeply negative, and inside the day, sales prevail. A price fixation below 1.3478 will lead to a change of trend to a downtrend. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.3478, but with confirmation, since the level has already been tested. Sell deals are better to look for on the intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.3530 or 1.3604, but with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative on the lower time frames or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3478, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.05:

– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 Jan

GBPUSD bears make their presence felt

By ForexTime

The GBPUSD on the D1 time frame was in a prolonged uptrend until 14 December when a last higher top was recorded at 1.24454.

A closer look at the Momentum Oscillator reveals a negative divergence between points “a” and “b” when comparing the tops at 1.23435 and 1.24454. This could have warned technical traders that the bullish trend was losing momentum.

After the higher top at 1.24454, the price dropped through the 15 and 34 Simple Moving Averages and the Momentum Oscillator followed suit by moving into bearish terrain. This confirmed that the bears are making their presence felt.

A possible critical support level formed when a lower bottom was recorded on 3 January at 1.18998. The bulls are currently trying to press the price higher but a resistance level that formed on 28 December at 1.21254 might exert its influence on the market.

If the price of GBPUSD breaks through the critical support level at 1.18998, then three possible price targets may be projected from there. Attaching the Fibonacci tool to the lower bottom at 1.18998, and dragging it to the resistance level at 1.21254, the following targets may be anticipated. The first target can be estimated at 1.17604 (161.8%). The second price target may be calculated at 1.15348 (261.8%) and the third and final target can be expected at 1.11698 (423.6%).

If the resistance level at 1.21254 is broken, the above scenario is no longer valid and must be reassessed.

As long as sellers maintain their negative sentiment and supply continues overcoming demand, the outlook for the GBPUSD currency pair will remain bearish.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Jan

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.01.04

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0664
Prev Close: 1.0648
% chg. over the last day: -0.15 %

Preliminary data showed that inflation in Germany slowed to an annualized rate of 8.6% in December from 10% as one-time government payments came into effect to help consumers pay their heating and gas bills. In recent months, many German unions have successfully advocated above-average wage increases to offset the impact of inflation. Meanwhile, unemployment rates in Europe’s largest economy rose slightly in December to 2.45 million, or 5.5%.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0528, 1.0483, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284, 1.0193
Resistance levels: 1.0612, 1.0664, 1.0695

The EUR/USD currency pair trend on the hourly time frame is still bullish. The price is still trading in a wide price corridor. The MACD indicator has become negative. Volatility remains low. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0638 on intraday time frames. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0689, but better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout since the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0549 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.04:

– French Consumer Price index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+2);
– Spanish Services PMI (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– Italian Services PMI (m/m) at 10:45 (GMT+2);
- – French Services PMI (m/m) at 10:50 (GMT+2);
- – Germany Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
- – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
  - – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  - – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  - – US FOMC minutes at 21:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2042
Prev Close: 1.1966
% chg. over the last day: -0.64 %

The UK manufacturing sector ended 2022 on a weak footing, with output, new orders, and employment declining faster. Domestic and foreign demand remained lackluster as customers faced rising costs, increased market volatility, and Brexit-related complications. The seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index for the UK manufacturing sector fell to a 31-month low of 45.3 in December, down from 46.5 in November. The PMI has remained below the neutral 50.0 mark for five months in a row. All five PMI sub-indices point to a weakening operating environment for the UK manufacturing economy.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1893, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
Resistance levels: 1.2056, 1.2167, 1.2218, 1.2308, 1.2431, 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there is a divergence on several timeframes, indicating a limited further decline. Under such market conditions, buy trades are better to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.1893, but with confirmation. Sell trades are best sought from the resistance level of 1.2056 but also better with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2100 resistance level and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 130.77
Prev Close: 130.97
% chg. over the last day: +0.16 %

The Japanese yen rose to a seven-month high against the US dollar on Tuesday, crossing the 130 mark. The strengthening of the yen was triggered by the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) decision to loosen control over the yield curve and allow holders of certain government bonds to move within a wider range. The US Federal Reserve and other central banks are seeking to slow the pace of interest rate hikes, while the BOJ will only begin to move toward policy normalization this year. Analysts believe the first half of 2023 may pass under the strengthening of the Japanese yen.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 129.65, 128.85
Resistance levels: 132.92, 133.58, 134.45, 135.88, 137.03, 138.00, 139.09

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The price is now trading at the level of the moving averages, while the MACD indicator has become inactive, but the divergence on several time frames indicates that further decline is limited. Buy trades are best considered on intraday time frames from the support level of 129.65, but only with confirmation. Sell deals be looked at from the resistance level of 132.92, provided there is a reversal.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 133.58, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.04:

– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3569
Prev Close: 1.3668
% chg. over the last day: +0.72 %

Canada’s manufacturing economy remains in a moderate contraction zone, characterized by further declines in production, new orders, and buying activity. The seasonally adjusted Manufacturing PMI registered 49.2 in December, down from 49.6 in November and below the 50.0 mark for the fifth consecutive month. This is the longest decline since August 2015. The main reason for the decline is a drop in new orders due to continuing high inflation and uncertainty in sales.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3627, 1.3570, 1.3530, 1.3437, 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages and forming provocation zones along the move, which do not allow the price to go down. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone. Within the day, buying prevails. Buy trades should be considered from the support at 1.3570, but with confirmation. Sell deals are better to look for on the intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.3700, but with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative on the lower time frames or a false breakout, since the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3529, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

Financial News Forex and Currency News

03 Jan

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.01.03

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0696
Prev Close: 1.0658
% chg. over the last day: -0.35 %

The ECB is expected to go against the trend of most other major central banks early this year and continue its aggressive pace of rate hikes, even though inflationary pressures across Europe are forecast to ease this week. The ECB was the last of the big central banks to start raising rates, which means Europe’s Central Bank has more “room” to continue tightening. Moreover, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector indicates that the European industry has already adapted to high prices, the recession in manufacturing activity in the euro area is probably over, and supply chains are recovering.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0638, 1.0589, 1.0483, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284, 1.0193
Resistance levels: 1.0689

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0549 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.02:

– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– German Consumer Price index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2061
Prev Close: 1.2044
% chg. over the last day: -0.14 %

The Bank of England is expected to start slowing the pace of rate hikes as inflation declines, as UK economic indicators point to a recessionary scenario. The Resolution Foundation has warned that the cost-of-living crisis, which has led to a sharp drop in living standards, will continue into the new year. Income is expected to fall another 3.8%, and households will continue to struggle with soaring energy prices and tax increases.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2057, 1.1999, 1.1979, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
Resistance levels: 1.2167, 1.2218, 1.2308, 1.2431, 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and the price is trading in a narrow price corridor, but there are signs of buying strength inside the day. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2057, but with confirmation. Sell trades are best sought from the resistance level of 1.2167 but also better with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2308 resistance level and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.03:

– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 130.91
Prev Close: 130.61
% chg. over the last day: -0.23 %

The Japanese yen has strengthened by about 16% from its October low amid Bank of Japan intervention, as well as hopes of a slowdown in US interest rate hikes and speculation about possible Bank of Japan policy changes this year. The Bank of Japan’s unexpected December decision to change the parameters for managing the yield curve is still seen by many as a sign that ultra-easy monetary policy may soon come to an end. But traders should not expect any changes before the spring of 2023.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 129.65, 128.33
Resistance levels: 131.24, 133.58, 134.45, 135.88, 137.03, 138.00, 139.09

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The price is now trading below the moving averages, while the MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there is a divergence. There is selling pressure inside the day. Buy trades are best considered on intraday time frames from support at 129.65, but only with confirmation. Sell deals can be sought from the resistance level of 131.22, provided there is a reversal.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 133.58, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3550
Prev Close: 1.3570
% chg. over the last day: +0.14 %

The USD/CAD currency pair gained 7% over 2022 primarily due to the US Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy, which led to a 7.61% rise in the dollar index. WTI crude oil price rose by 4.57% over the year, which helped keep the Canadian dollar from plummeting. It should also be noted that the Bank of Canada was one of the first to begin tightening monetary policy but did it less aggressively than the US Fed, so now the US Fed rate (4.5%) is slightly higher than the Bank of Canada rate (4.25%). The Bank of Canada is projected to schedule another 0.25% rate hike in January and then keep rates at 4.5% through the end of 2023. With the US Fed starting to slow the rate hikes and Canada’s economic outlook now more optimistic, this could play for the Canadian currency’s strength in the first half of 2023.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3437, 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3583, 1.3614, 1.3656, 1.3700, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is still bullish. The price forms a wide price corridor. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but sales prevail during the day. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.3537, but with confirmation. Sell deals are best to look for on intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.3583, but with confirmation in the form of reverse initiative on the lower time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3529, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.03:

– OPEC+ Meeting (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Financial News Forex and Currency News

30 Dec

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 30.12.2022 (GBPUSD, GOLD, NZDUSD)

By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is correcting by a Triangle pattern. The pair is going under the Ichimoku Cloud, which indicates prevalence of a downtrend. A test of the lower border of the Cloud is expected at 1.2065, followed by falling to 1.1805. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the upper border of the Triangle pattern. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 1.2265, which will mean further growth to 1.2355. The decline can be confirmed by a breakaway of the lower border of the Triangle pattern and securing under 1.1975.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is testing the resistance level. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which indicates an uptrend. A test of the lower border of the Cloud is expected at 1805, followed by growth to 1860. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1790, which will mean further falling to 1755.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is declining in a bullish correction channel. The instrument is going inside the Ichimoku Cloud, which means a flat. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 0.6355 is expected, followed by falling to 0.6105. An signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 0.6405, which will mean further growth to 0.6505. The decline can be confirmed by a breakaway of the lower border of the bullish channel and securing under 0.6270.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

30 Dec

Murrey Math Lines 30.12.2022 (Brent, S&P 500)

By RoboForex.com

BRENT

On H4, Brent quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI is testing the resistance line. A test of 2/8 (81.25) should be expected, followed by a breakaway and falling to the support level of 1/8 (78.12). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of 3/8 (84.38), which might lead to a trend reversal and growth of the quotes to the resistance level of 4/8 (87.50).

On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is broken away, which confirms the downtrend and increases the probability of further falling.

S&P 500

On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI is testing the descending trendline that acts as a resistance level for the price. As a result, a breakaway of 0/8 (3750.0) is expected, followed by falling to the support level of -1/8 (3593.8). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of 1/8 (3906.2). In this case, the S&P 500 index may rise to 2/8 (4062.5).

On M15, an additional signal confirming the decline will be a breakaway of the lower line of VoltyChannel.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 84

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Brazilian Real & Canadian Dollar

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Brazilian Real

Swiss Franc & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Euro Currency Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Japanese Yen Futures:

Swiss Franc Futures:

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures:

Brazilian Real Futures:

Bitcoin Futures:

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Bitcoin

Brazil Real

Nasdaq

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

Mexican Peso

WTI Crude Oil

5-Year Bond

Wheat

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

The EUR/USD currency pair

The GBP/USD currency pair

The USD/JPY currency pair

The USD/CAD currency pair

We’ve still got the marquee US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) due in just a few hours today (Friday, January 6th).

What is a “death cross”?

This technical event is widely viewed as a “bearish” sign, suggesting that prices would decline further after the “death cross”.

What could push the USD Index closer to a death cross?

If the US inflation data due on January 12th comes in lower than expected, that should drag the dollar even lower.

Recall the reason for these Fed rate hikes = it’s to subdue US inflation.

Potential scenarios for USD Index in response to CPI release:

Such hopes may drag the USD Index back lower to the 1.170 region, and potentially see this USD Index form a death cross.

Such a hawkish narrative may well send this USD Index upwards to test its 50-day SMA (around 1.20) as the immediate resistance level, while perhaps delaying the formation of a “death cross” for a while longer.

The EUR/USD currency pair

The GBP/USD currency pair

The USD/JPY currency pair

The USD/CAD currency pair

The EUR/USD currency pair

The GBP/USD currency pair

The USD/JPY currency pair

The USD/CAD currency pair

The EUR/USD currency pair

The GBP/USD currency pair

The USD/JPY currency pair

The USD/CAD currency pair