Forex and Currency News :: Page 81

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Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 25.01.2023 (XAUUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD)

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

At the resistance level, gold has formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern. The pair is now going by the signal in a descending wave. The goal of the correction might be 1915.00. Upon testing the support level, the pair will get the chance for bouncing off it and continue the uptrend. However, the price may grow directly to 1945.50 without testing the support level.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

On H4, at the resistance level, the pair has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern. The pair may now go by the signal in a descending wave. The goal of the pullback might be 0.6445. After a bounce off the support level, the pair might get the chance to continue the uptrend. However, the price may grow to 0.6550 without any correction.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

On H4, at the support level, the pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern. The instrument may now go by the signal in an ascending wave. The goal of the growth might be the resistance level at 1.2430. However, the price may correct to 1.2275 and continue the uptrend after a pullback to the support level.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

23 Jan

Murrey Math Lines 23.01.2023 (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

On H4, the quotes are in the overbought area. The RSI is also nearing the overbought area. As a result, a downward breakaway of +1/8 (1.0864) should be expected, from where the price might fall to the support level of 8/8 (1.0741). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of +2/8 (1.0986), which might lead to reshuffling of Murrey lines and setting new goals for the price.

On M15, an additional signal confirming the decline will be a breakaway of the lower border of VoltyChannel.

GBPUSDD

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates an uptrend. However, the RSI demonstrates a divergence. This means that a bounce off 6/8 (1.2451) should be expected, followed by falling to the support level of 4/8 (1.2207). This movement will be interpreted as a correction of the uptrend. The scenario can be cancelled by an upward breakaway of 6/8 (1.2451), in which case the pair might continue growth and reach 7/8 (1.2573).

On M15, a breakaway of the lower border of VoltyChannel will increase the probability of falling.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

23 Jan

Trade Of The Week: EURUSD In Breakout Mode?

By ForexTime

EURUSD may be gearing up for a major breakout as the technicals and fundamentals continue to align.

Over the past few months, euro bulls dominated the scene – pushing prices further away from parity. It also stood its ground in the G10 space, appreciating against most counterparts thanks to fundamental forces.

The single European currency has already kicked off the trading week punching above 1.09, marking a new high since April 2022! With the strong upside momentum showing little signs of cooling down, further upside could be on the cards – especially with the support of economic data.

As the discussion around interest rates between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central bank (ECB) rages on, this is likely to result in increased volatility for the EURUSD. The Euro continues to draw strength from a weaker dollar, rising inflation in the Eurozone, and most importantly a hawkish ECB. On the other hand, repeated signs of easing inflationary pressures in the United States have fuelled speculation about the Fed slowing down its pace of rate increases. Ultimately, the narrowing monetary policy divergence between both central banks is likely to fuel the upside in the EURUSD.

Taking a quick look at the technical picture, the EURUSD remains firmly bullish on the daily charts with prices pressing against 1.0900 as of writing. A solid breakout above this point could encourage an incline towards 1.1200.

The low down…

Christine Lagarde delivered her hawkish message to Davos last week, warning markets not to underestimate the ECB’s monetary policy. Lagarde stated that inflation remained “way too high” with the ECB determined to stay the course on rates till inflation returned to 2%. Markets widely expect the central bank to raise interest rates by 50 basis points next month and potentially a similar move in March. However, this may be influenced by economic data and the Ukraine war. Nevertheless, with inflation still at lofty levels, this may keep doves at bay while empowering hawks.

Regarding the Fed, it has kicked off a two-week black period ahead of the rate meeting on Wednesday 1st of February. With Fed speeches out of the picture, the dollar is set to be influenced by key economic reports. If the incoming data continues to fuel dollar weakness, this will add to the growing list of factors pushing the EURUSD higher.

The week ahead

It is a data-heavy week for the EUR and USD.

On Monday, the Euro was knocked lower by the disappointing consumer confidence figures for January. Although consumer confidence rose for a third month to -22.2 in December 2022, this was below market expectations. Appetite towards the single Euro currency could be rekindled if Christine Lagarde strikes a hawkish note during her speech this evening.

Tuesday sees the Eurozone and US January PMI’s which could inject fresh volatility into the EURUSD. On Wednesday, we have the January IFO business climate figure for Germany, and all-important US Q4 GDP figures on Thursday. The first estimate of Q4 GDP is expected to show that economic growth slowed in Q4. According to Bloomberg, forecasts point to an increase of 2.7% compared to the 3.2% growth witnessed in the third quarter of 2022. A disappointing figure may compound the dollar’s woes, dragging prices lower as bets on smaller Fed rate hikes intensify. Much attention will be on the US December personal income data, including the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – the core PCE deflator. This is expected to cool further to 4.4% year-on-year compared to the 4.7% seen in November. A report that meets or prints below forecast may weaken the USD even further.

EURUSD poised to push higher

In our 2023 market outlook, we highlighted how a weaker dollar could fuel the EURUSD’s great rebound. Fast forward to today, the currency pair has jumped almost 400 pips. Prices remain firmly bullish on the daily, weekly, and monthly timeframe. Although 1.0900 may provide some resistance, the fundamentals and technicals favour further upside. A strong monthly close above 1.0900 may signal a move towards 1.1200 in February.

Zooming into the daily charts, there are a couple of smaller checkpoints before prices potentially hit 1.1200, which are 1.0970 and 1.1120. Should 1.0900 prove to be reliable resistance, a decline towards 1.0770 and 1.0700 could be on the table.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

21 Jan

Currency Speculators retreat from US Dollar Index bullish bets to a 78-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 17th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (12,416 contracts) with the British Pound (4,759 contracts), Mexican Peso (4,742 contracts), Canadian Dollar (3,696 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (70 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-7,998 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (-3,182 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,292 contracts), Bitcoin (-33 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-571 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies data is the recent declines in the US Dollar Index bullish speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for the US Dollar Index fell this week for a second straight week and for the third time out of the past five weeks. The speculator’s bullish position has almost fallen by half over the past five weeks going from a total of +25,778 contracts on December 13th to a total of +13,358 contracts this week. These declines have now pushed the Dollar Index to the least bullish level for speculators since July 20th of 2021, a span of 78 weeks.

Since riding a strong bullish wave to a 274-week high on June 14th of 2022 (at +45,010 contracts), the US Dollar Index speculator positioning has been in a slow but steady downtrend that continued this week.

The US Dollar Index futures price has also been in a downtrend after ascending to a multi-year peak in September at the 114.74 level. That marked the best price level for the Dollar Index since 2002 and was the start of the recent slide that has brought the Dollar Index to its current level of 101.78 (for an approximate loss of 11 percent). Since September, most of the major currencies have gained against the Dollar and have made some moderate recoveries after falling to multi-decade lows.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-17-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	39,388	44	13,358	47	-15,570	51	2,212	41
EUR	753,915	92	126,984	74	-179,074	25	52,090	62
GBP	201,956	38	-24,697	48	31,436	55	-6,739	45
JPY	176,862	36	-22,961	55	18,084	44	4,877	63
CHF	34,300	16	-7,941	34	11,357	64	-3,416	46
CAD	132,346	18	-27,259	9	27,488	92	-229	30
AUD	128,213	28	-33,620	54	25,936	38	7,684	71
NZD	31,579	10	6,058	70	-6,686	31	628	59
MXN	274,227	84	-48,639	7	42,299	90	6,340	95
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	40,800	28	22,193	70	-23,748	30	1,555	79
Bitcoin	15,885	83	-627	66	337	0	290	20

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & New Zealand Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (74 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (70 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (70 percent), Bitcoin (66 percent) and the Japanese Yen (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (7 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (34 percent) and the US Dollar Index (47 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (47.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (52.5 percent)
EuroFX (74.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (47.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (43.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (54.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (47.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (33.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (35.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (4.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (53.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (53.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (70.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (73.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (6.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.2 percent)
Bitcoin (66.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (66.6 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (34 percent) and the Japanese Yen (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (21 percent), the Swiss Franc (11 percent) and the Australian Dollar (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-19 percent), Bitcoin (-12 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-19.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-13.9 percent)
EuroFX (0.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (3.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (6.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (26.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (19.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (11.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (18.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-6.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-17.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (6.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (10.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (33.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (33.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (-41.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-50.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (21.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (15.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-12.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-16.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 13,358 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,182 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,540 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.5	2.6	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	42.1	7.8
– Net Position:	13,358	-15,570	2,212
– Gross Longs:	31,694	1,031	5,292
– Gross Shorts:	18,336	16,601	3,080
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	51.0	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.2	19.0	-4.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 126,984 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 134,982 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	55.2	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	79.0	5.6
– Net Position:	126,984	-179,074	52,090
– Gross Longs:	228,279	416,510	94,476
– Gross Shorts:	101,295	595,584	42,386
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	25.2	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	-5.4	27.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -24,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	64.7	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	49.1	15.2
– Net Position:	-24,697	31,436	-6,739
– Gross Longs:	41,469	130,575	24,051
– Gross Shorts:	66,166	99,139	30,790
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.8	55.4	44.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-4.3	5.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	65.0	17.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	54.7	14.6
– Net Position:	-22,961	18,084	4,877
– Gross Longs:	29,458	114,907	30,761
– Gross Shorts:	52,419	96,823	25,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.7	44.5	63.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.5	-27.9	28.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -7,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,370 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	55.2	33.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.6	22.1	43.3
– Net Position:	-7,941	11,357	-3,416
– Gross Longs:	3,919	18,933	11,429
– Gross Shorts:	11,860	7,576	14,845
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	63.7	46.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-10.7	7.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -27,259 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,696 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	57.0	24.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	36.2	24.5
– Net Position:	-27,259	27,488	-229
– Gross Longs:	20,897	75,387	32,211
– Gross Shorts:	48,156	47,899	32,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.3	91.6	29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	3.8	1.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 70 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	55.4	20.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.5	35.2	14.6
– Net Position:	-33,620	25,936	7,684
– Gross Longs:	28,593	71,052	26,348
– Gross Shorts:	62,213	45,116	18,664
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.7	38.2	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.4	-12.6	24.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 6,058 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	50.3	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	71.5	10.4
– Net Position:	6,058	-6,686	628
– Gross Longs:	11,308	15,888	3,903
– Gross Shorts:	5,250	22,574	3,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.4	30.7	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.6	-30.6	5.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.9	41.5	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.6	26.1	0.9
– Net Position:	-48,639	42,299	6,340
– Gross Longs:	150,543	113,924	8,681
– Gross Shorts:	199,182	71,625	2,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	90.4	94.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.2	39.9	5.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,701 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.5	10.5	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	68.7	6.2
– Net Position:	22,193	-23,748	1,555
– Gross Longs:	32,429	4,270	4,096
– Gross Shorts:	10,236	28,018	2,541
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.7	30.2	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.4	-20.4	-6.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -627 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -33 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.4	6.0	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.4	3.9	7.2
– Net Position:	-627	337	290
– Gross Longs:	12,456	951	1,440
– Gross Shorts:	13,083	614	1,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.0	80.9	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	44.0	-4.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

21 Jan

COT Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal, Ultra 10-Year Treasuries lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 17th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 20.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 166,350 net contracts this week with a rise of 8,640 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is now at a 76.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 15.3 this week. The speculator position registered -52,355 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 20,452 contracts in speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Euro speculator level resides at a 74.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 0.6 this week. The overall speculator position was 126,984 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,998 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 72.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 23.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 74,143 net contracts this week with a dip of -5,851 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level sits at a 70.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 33.6 this week.

The speculator position was 6,058 net contracts this week with a decrease of -1,292 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -126,321 net contracts this week with a decline of -28,051 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.0 this week. The speculator position was -42,014 net contracts this week with a dip of -2,298 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

10-Year Note

The 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 10-Year Note speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -24.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -545,057 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -133,699 contracts in the speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Coffee speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.4 this week. The speculator position was -26,745 net contracts this week with a decline of -12,006 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 1.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.8 this week. The speculator position was -680,655 net contracts this week with a drop of -57,504 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

20 Jan

Murrey Math Lines 20.01.2023 (Brent, S&P 500)

By RoboForex.com

Brent

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, implying an uptrend. The RSI has risen above the resistance line. A breakaway of 8/8 (87.50) upwards should be expected, followed by growth to the resistance line of +1/8 (89.06). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level at 6/8 (84.38), which might lead to a trend reversal and falling to 4/8 (81.25).

On M15, the upper line of VoltyChannel is broken away, which indicates an uptrend and increases the probability of further growth.

S&P 500

On H4, the S&P 500 index quotes has broken through the 200-day Moving Average and are now under it, which indicates probable development of a downtrend. The RSI is nearing the resistance level. As a result, a bounce off 2/8 (3906.2) should be expected, followed by falling to the support level of 1/8 (3828.1). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over 3/8 (3984.4). In this case, the quotes might rise to the resistance level of 4/8 (4062.5).

On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is broken, which increases the probability of further falling of the price.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

20 Jan

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 20.01.2023 (XAUUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD)

By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

At the resistance level, gold has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern. The pair is currently going by the pattern in a descending wave. The goal of the correction might be 1915.00. Upon testing the support level, the pair may bounce off it and continue the uptrend. However, the quotes may grow to 1945.00 without testing the support level.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

On H4, at the support level, the pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern. Currently, the pair is going by the signal in an ascending wave. The goal of the growth might be 0.6485. After this resistance level is broken away, the quotes might get a chance to continue the uptrend. However, the price may pull back to 0.6370 before growth.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

On H4, at the resistance level, the pair has formed a Harami reversal pattern. The pair may now go by the signal in a descending wave. The goal of the correction might be the support level of 1.2310. However, the price may grow to 1.2500 and continue the uptrend without any pullback to the support level.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

20 Jan

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.01.20

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0789
Prev Close: 1.0830
% chg. over the last day: +0.38 %

The ECB is still determined to keep raising rates by 50 basis points in its next meetings. At the same time, there is a growing possibility that the ECB will cut its bond holdings faster. The ECB’s December monetary policy report showed that many policymakers were initially in favor of raising the ECB’s key interest rates by 75 basis points because inflation was expected to be too high. Given the latest Eurozone inflation data, analysts are leaning toward the ECB raising rates by 50 basis points in February and March and then another 25 basis points in May, after which Europe’s Central Bank will pause for a few months.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0780, 1.0710, 1.0650, 1.0597, 1.0535, 1.0497, 1.0480
Resistance levels: 1.0846, 1.0867

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bullish. The price is forming a price corridor and is trading at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive, while signs of divergence persist. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0780, with confirmation on intraday time frames in the form of a false breakout of the level. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0846, but better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0710 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.20:

– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 01:35 (GMT+2).
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Harker Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+2);
– US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Waller Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2345
Prev Close: 1.2390
% chg. over the last day: +0.36 %

Demand for the dollar is generally declining as markets begin to price in the scenario that the Federal Reserve is at the end of its tightening cycle, while the British pound and the euro still have “room” as the central banks in England and the ECB plan to continue raising interest rates. The economic situation in the UK is worse than in the Eurozone. The strong labor market is a positive factor for the Bank of England in the tightening cycle. But high inflation has left manufacturing activity, the service sector, and the real estate market already on the verge of recession. Economists expect the Bank of England to raise its key interest rate from 3.5% to 4% at its meeting in February.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2296, 1.2220, 1.2145, 1.2080, 1.2000, 1.1928, 1.1875, 1.1684
Resistance levels: 1.2383, 1.2446, 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the levels of the moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but the presence of divergence and the daily resistance is still limiting the further growth of quotes. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2296, but with confirmation. Sell trades are best sought from the resistance level of 1.2383 but also better with confirmation on the lower time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2080 support level and fixes above it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.20:

– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 128.88
Prev Close: 128.42
% chg. over the last day: -0.36 %

Japan’s nationwide core consumer price index rose from 3.7% to 4.0% in annual terms, a 41-year high. While well below the still exorbitant levels of inflation in the United States, the United Kingdom, and elsewhere, the figure is well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target. Rising inflation in Japan only adds to the likelihood that the central bank will reverse the policy to a tightening cycle in the spring.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 128.16, 127.53, 126.19
Resistance levels: 130.05, 131.34, 132.37, 132.95, 133.23, 134.45, 135.88

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is still bearish. The price did not manage to consolidate above the priority level, but within the day, buying pressure will prevail. The MACD indicator is positive again. It is best to look for buy trades from the support level of 128.16, but only with confirmation on intraday time frames. Sell positions can be searched from the resistance level of 130.05, provided that there is a reverse reaction.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above the resistance level of 131.34, the uptrend will be renewed with a high probability.

News feed for 2023.01.20:

– Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 01:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3485
Prev Close: 1.3466
% chg. over the last day: -0.14 %

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and is highly correlated with instruments such as the dollar index and oil prices. Oil prices increased about 1% on Thursday despite rising inventories. The main trigger for the rise is optimism about China’s opening. Oil demand in China is up nearly 1 million BPD from the previous month. The International Energy Agency said that global oil demand might reach a record high in 2023 as China lifts blockages and restrictions. Considering the current supply levels in the market, it will put upward pressure on oil prices, which will strengthen the Canadian dollar.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3445, 1.3396, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3513, 1.3561, 1.3594, 1.3632, 1.3700

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is close to changing to a bullish one. The MACD indicator has become positive and buying pressure prevails during the day. Under such market conditions, sell transactions can be considered from the resistance level of 1.3513, but with additional confirmation in the form of a false breakout, as the level has already been tested. Buy deals should be considered from the support level of 1.3445 or 1.3396, but only with short targets and confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3513, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.20:

– Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

19 Jan

Dollar tumbles after disappointing US data

By ForexTime

Concerns about an incoming economic slowdown have hit markets, while continued hawkish rhetoric by Fed speakers has added to negative risk sentiment.

Asian stocks have traded mixed with most major indices rangebound following the negative handover from Wall Street.
The dollar had a choppy session yesterday on the back of the BoJ meeting and softer data and is in the red to kick off this morning’s session.
Gold is trying to hold onto to recent highs and remains above $1900.

Weak US economic data spurred further speculation that inflation is peaking, and policymakers may be nearing the end of their hiking cycles.

US retail sales fell more than expected, industrial production declined and US PPI also slid more than forecast.

But while slowing inflation has been a positive for markets, worries about slowing economic growth have started to bite as well.

This did actually push the DXY to new cycle lows below 102 on more dovish Fed rate expectations, with the May lows also offering immediate support to the benchmark US dollar index, for now.

A further capitulation in dollar bulls could invite bears to push the DXY into sub-100 levels.

BoJ seen to bow to the inevitable

The yen has reversed nearly all its losses from yesterday’s spike higher in USD/JPY, even after the BoJ defied hawkish speculation yesterday that it would widen its yield curve control band further.

Policymakers are seen eventually changing or abandoning the YCC policy when Governor Kuroda steps down in April after he laid the groundwork in December with only the third change to the yield cap in seven years.

That window when he hands over the baton of the BoJ governing board may herald more extreme volatility in the yen.

USD/JPY has been at the forefront of the broad dollar decline since October.

Intervention helped near the highs just shy of 152. Easing US CPI prints, especially in November saw huge moves to the downside.

The upper part of the long-term descending channel, with its series of lower highs and lower lows, was nearly touched yesterday on the spike high after the BoJ meeting, only to be repelled by USDJPY’s 21-day simple moving average (SMA).

But the sharp about-turn looks strongly bearish with funds loading up on long yen positions in anticipation of more BoJ policy changes going forward.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

18 Jan

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 18.01.2023 (GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD)

By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The pair is testing the resistance level. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which implies an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line is expected at 1.2170, followed by growth to 1.2485. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the ascending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.2005, which will entail further falling to 1.1910.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The currency pair is correcting in a descending channel. The instrument is going below the Cloud, which implies a downtrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud is expected at 131.60, followed by falling to 125.45. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 132.75, which will entail further growth to 133.65. The decline can be confirmed by a breakaway of the lower border of the bullish channel and securing under 129.05.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is pushing off the signal lines of the indicator. The instrument is going above the Cloud, which implies an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the our is expected at 0.6840, followed by growth to 0.7125. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 0.6775, which will indicate further falling to 0.6685.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

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