Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 82

18 Jan

Murrey Math Lines 18.01.2023 (USDJPY, USDCAD)

By RoboForex.com

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average which indicates a downtrend. The RSI is nearing the overbought area. As a result, a bounce off 4/8 (131.25) is expected, followed by falling to the support level of 2/8 (128.12). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of 4/8 (131.25). In this case, the pair will continue correcting and might reach 5/8 (132.81).

AUDUSDH4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is too far away from the current price, so falling can only be initiated by a bounce off 4/8 (131.25) on H4.

AUDUSD_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

On H4, the quotes are also under the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI has broken through the support level. As a result, we expect a downward breakaway of 3/8 (1.3366) and falling to the support level of 2/8 (1.3305). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of 5/8 (1.3488), which might lead to a trend reversal and growth to 6/8 (1.3549).

NZDUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, a breakaway of the lower line of VoltyChannel will increase the probability of further price falling.

NZDUSD_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
18 Jan

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.01.18

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0820
  • Prev Close: 1.0787
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.30 %

The ZEW German Economic Sentiment Index, jumped in January, outperforming the previous month’s reading. The ZEW Business Sentiment Index is considered a leading indicator of economic activity. The positive reading, the first since February 2022, indicates a marked improvement in economic conditions over the next six months, while the prospect of further declining inflation has improved expectations for consumer sectors. The ZEW index for the Eurozone also jumped. The increase in the indicators had little impact on the EUR/USD exchange rate, but there are more and more factors for a stronger euro.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0780, 1.0710, 1.0650, 1.0597, 1.0535, 1.0497, 1.0480
  • Resistance levels: 1.0833, 1.0875

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bullish. But the price is trading below the moving averages, rebounding from the daily resistance level. The MACD indicator has become negative, with signs of divergence persisting. Inside the day, sales begin to prevail. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0780, with confirmation on intraday time frames as a false breakdown of the level. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0833, but better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0700 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2023.01.18:
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Harker Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2194
  • Prev Close: 1.2287
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.76 %

The UK unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, but average earnings rose to 6.4% from 6.1% the previous month, the highest rate of growth. In real terms (adjusted for inflation), wages fell by 2.6%, one of the biggest declines of all time. In other words, people’s wages went up, but purchasing power went down because of record inflation. The combination of high inflation, rising wages, and a strong labor market may well incline the Bank of England to raise rates more than expected at next month’s meeting.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2220, 1.2145, 1.2080, 1.2000, 1.1928, 1.1875, 1.1684
  • Resistance levels: 1.2288, 1.2308, 1.2431, 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is slowly rising, forming narrow price corridors. As a rule, such narrowing of liquidity led to sharp impulse movements. The MACD indicator became positive, but the presence of divergence and the presence of the daily resistance level limits the further growth of quotes. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2220, but with confirmation. It is better to look for sell deals from the resistance level of 1.2288 or 1.2308, but it is also better with a confirmation in the form of a false breakout or a change in the structure on the lower time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2080 support level and fixes above it, the downtrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2023.01.18:
  • – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 128.48
  • Prev Close: 128.15
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.26 %

The Japanese yen dropped more than 2% after the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting. The Bank of Japan left all policy settings unchanged. This includes the discount rate (maintained at -0.1%) and the 10-year bond yield target of around 0%. Policymakers also mentioned that they would continue to buy bonds with a degree of flexibility. This underscores the Central Bank’s intention to continue to control the yield curve as planned. This disappointed investors who had hoped for the first steps of monetary policy normalization.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 129.65, 129.12, 128.09, 127.08, 126.19
  • Resistance levels: 131.34, 132.37, 132.95, 133.23, 134.45, 135.88

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is close to changing to bullish. The price is trading above the levels of the moving averages but below the change in priority. The MACD indicator has become positive and indicates overbought. Buy trades are best considered after a slight correction from support levels of 129.65 or 129.12, but only with intraday confirmation. Sell deals can be looked for from the resistance level of 131.34 or 132.73 on the condition of a reverse reaction or false breakout.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above the resistance level of 132.73, the uptrend will be renewed with a high probability.

USD/JPY
News feed for 2023.01.18:
  • – Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 05:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan BoJ Outlook Report at 05:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan BoJ Press Conference (Tentative).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3400
  • Prev Close: 1.3388
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.09 %

In Canada, the consumer price level fell from 6.8% to 6.3% year-over-year. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) also declined from 5.8% to 5.4% y/y. The decline in the cost of living was mainly due to a 13% drop in fuel prices. But food prices rose another 0.3% in the last month. While the official inflation rate is still more than double the Bank of Canada’s target, it is now at its lowest level in almost a year. Economists believe the central bank is likely to raise the benchmark interest rate by at least another 0.25%.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3352, 1.3212
  • Resistance levels: 1.3459, 1.3513, 1.3561, 1.3594, 1.3632, 1.3700

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The price is traded in the price corridor. As a rule, such accumulation of liquidity leads to sharp impulse movements. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is best to wait for the impulse exit and only then act. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.3352, but only with short targets and confirmation. Sell deals are better to consider in the intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.3459, but with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3500, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
18 Jan

Implications for the Demise of US Dollar Hegemony

Source: Michael Ballanger  (1/17/23) 

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. reviews the current state of the U.S. dollar to tell you where he believes it is heading.

It was only a few months ago that the world witnessed an event in the Middle East that can only be classified as a “watershed event.” For the first time since Chevron first discovered oil in the Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, a world leader not belonging to the U.S.-dominated NATO alliance, was greeted with all of the pomp and circumstance usually reserved for the United States.

When Chinese President Xi Jinping stepped off the aircraft back in December, he was greeted with such respect by Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman that the international media made great fanfare out of it while the U.S. MSM downplayed it as if it were an inconsequential state visit.

As we move into the New Year, one of the forecasts about which I am constantly reading is the imminent arrival of the “New World Order” in which the World Economic Forum (“WEF”) led by Klaus Schwab rearranges global priorities by way of seismic changes in politics, economics, and medicine.

The spin doctors conger up images of Dr. Evil-type characters holed up in a luxurious retreat in the Swiss Alps, hovering over a map of the world as they divide up the regions like Monopoly pieces. Unfortunately, there actually is a shift occurring in the way the world works, but it lacks the theatrics of an Ian Fleming novel or a movie by James Cameron. The shift that is occurring at Hemingway-esque speed (first slowly, then suddenly in reference to his bankruptcy) is the demise of the not-so-mighty U.S. dollar.

From a technical perspective, the dollar index is comprised of a basket of currencies (more appropriately referred to as a “basket-case of currencies” like the energy-starved Yen and Euro), but it generally represents the major influence on the commodity prices or as the CPI-watchers like to say “input prices.” I am focused on this because the greenback’s raging ascent, which began in the summer of 2021, put in a major top in late September of last year on the exact day that I marked the turn, which was when the Bank of England did a ferocious one-eighty and instead of selling 10-year gilts to reduce the balance sheet, they were forced to buy gilts in order to rescue their insolvent pension funds.

Since then, two uptrend lines have been vanquished at around 109 and 103, with the first of the greatly-revered “death crosses” occurring last December at around 108 and the second this week around 106. The “death cross” occurs when the one moving average crosses below the second. In this case, the 50-DMA crossed below the 100-DMA in December, with the 50-DMA crossing below the 200-DMA this week.

Historically, these are very powerful signals that speak to the longer-term trend of markets, and the reason I am focused on the dollar is that its behavior can be a predictive tool for monetary and foreign policies.

2022 was a year in which the U.S. financial press was preoccupied with inflation, and it was the CPI bogeyman that hit 9% in the third quarter that was on the minds and lips of all of the Fed governors led by numero uno inflationista Jerome Powell. In order to eliminate the embedding of the dreaded “inflationary psychology,” Powell allowed the Fed Funds rate to advance more in nine months than had ever been experienced in all the years of Federal Reserve Board’s “management” of monetary policy.

What troubles me greatly as we head into 2023 is that the inflation rate in the United States (and Canada) skyrocketed during a period in which the American currency experienced the biggest rise since 1980 and 1994. The past sixteen years have seen the USD move from the low 70’s to the recent 114-plus level allowing the strength of the dollar to negate the effect of rising input prices.

From the summer of 2021 and all through 2022, as CPI began to soar, the strong dollar should have had a moderating impact on input prices, but due to supply chain shocks and fiscal handouts in the form of “stimmy cheques,” input prices were not dulled by the strong dollar.

When I see the chart of the dollar index and ponder the ramifications of its effect upon input prices within an extended period of weakness, I have to wonder how on earth the Fed is going to launch into “pivot” mode during a period of dollar weakness. One also has to wonder how the dollar can be retreating given the typically bullish effect of rising yields on the domestic currency.

The answer lies in the ability of markets to discount future events and what I think the dollar weakness is telling us is that the American economy may no longer be the aphrodisiac for global investment flows. It may just be that the debt monster plaguing the world’s largest deadbeat nation may be the proverbial chickens coming home to roost. Foreign investors typically favor the U.S. dollar during periods when they get a preferential return on their principal; what if the new focus has morphed into a concern of the return OF their principal? Solvency is never a concern until it is one, and with the US$32 trillion debt load, there is going to be a need to refinance that debt at rates far higher than a year ago.

I turned positive on stocks in late September with the Bank of England now forever in my servitude as their move to save their pension funds set the theme for the balance of 2022. I wrote back in December that I was not going to call the October 13th low for the S&P at 3,491.58 as “THE” low until I watched the late December-early January tape action. Now that the Santa Claus Rally and the First Five Days indicators registered positive outcomes, I am confident that the October low was indeed the low for the bear market and that we could see an extended rally into at least the second quarter.

However, there is an indicator called the “December low indicator” that says that if the market takes out its prior December low in the first quarter of the year, then all “BUY” signals are negated, and new lows are on the horizon. The levels that I will use as a stop-loss range is between 3,783 and 3,764 (closing low and intraday low for December).

The first week of trading allowed gold to break out of an oppressive band of resistance between US$1,825 and US$1,875 after which it touched US$1,912 before succumbing to profit-taking.

Also, the relative strength indicator just poked its head above 70 and now resides in overbought territory. That does not mean gold should be sold because it can stay overbought for weeks before reversing. It does mean that one should defer new purchases until the overbought conditions get worked off.

Now, despite the elevated RSI reading, the 50-DMA is about to surpass the 200-DMA, constituting a “Golden Cross” (the opposite of the “Death Cross”), and that could serve as an offset to the RSI reading. If gold can get comfortably above the US$1,900 level and stay there, we will get the cross next week, which is a powerful longer-term signal for the gold market. The next major resistance for the spot is around US$2,000, and then the all-time highs of around US$2,087.

The only problem I have right now with the entire precious metals complex is that this week, unlike the period of September 27th until New Year’s, silver is underperforming gold, which is a big non-confirmation and a near-term negative. Silver usually acts as an early warning device, and when it starts to lag gold, a near-term top usually arrives for the entire complex.

There was a bearish MACD crossover (“sell signal”) just before Christmas, and since then, silver has been in a range between US$23.25 and US$24.75, with resistance sitting in the US$26.00-26.50 range. I think it resolves to the upside in Q1/2023, but it may need a retest back to the 50-DMA around US$22.70 first.

Top-rated Getchell Gold Corp. (GTCH:CSE; GGLDF:OTCQB) reported more positive drill results from Fondaway Canyon, where they have recently upgraded their resource estimate to 2,059,900 ounces of in-ground gold with all zones open along strike and to depth. I get bombarded with emails asking why the stock price continues to languish, and while it is terribly frustrating, it is perfectly understandable.

The answer lies in the recently-reported sentiment numbers for the American Association of Individual Investors (“AAII”), which came in at 20.5% bulls, one of three record-low readings for the month of December, which represented the first time it has occurred since the survey began in 1987!

The AAII is a broad representation of the average retail investor which is typically the type of investor that buys junior resource stocks. With the brutal performance of the small-cap stocks last year, the average investor is licking his/her wounds with portfolio values down savagely in many sectors.

Those investors holding or buying the senior and intermediate miners (GDX/GDXJ) are ahead 49.7% and 53.49%, respectively, in those two ETF’s while the poor TSX Venture Exchange, which houses the junior developers and explorers is up a paltry 8.11% despite raging precious metals prices and copper at $4.15/pound. The microcap juniors are simply lagging behind their bigger brethren, and in time, the inevitable rotation will occur as fund flows begin to favor the little guys.

When sentiment amongst the resource investors (and the AAII) begins to heal, investment flows will move initially to those developers with a resource (such as Getchell) and then ultimately to the explorers. If one is looking for leverage, buying in-ground ounces at US$15.65 per ounce in the State of Nevada is a no-brainer which means Getchell Gold is just that.

Next week I will take the reading of the S&P on the sixteenth (Monday) which is the third of the December-January early warning numbers that I monitor. It will show a decent advance for the month (Approx. 2%) which leaves month-end as the last reading. If I get an up January, then all components of the January Barometer will have passed the test, and from at least a statistically-historical perspective, 2023 should be a bull market year. I think that 2023 will actually turn out to be a stock-picker’s market where fundamentals and valuation will be far more important than momentum or “the story.” I would welcome that with open arms.

I get frequently asked how I can be a bull when earnings are decelerating so rapidly amidst an inflationary backdrop and a hostile Fed. The only answer I have lies in a phrase that I have used for years and that is “Never underestimate the replacement power of equities (stocks) within an inflationary spiral.” From what I read and hear, there is an absolute mountain of cash on the sidelines from either real estate sales of stock market profits taken in 2021, but it is definitely out there, and I suspect that at the first sign of monetary policy relief, there will be a tsunami of buy-side volume piling into the quality names.

Michael Ballanger Disclaimer:

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

Disclosures:

1) Michael J. Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of the following companies mentioned in this article: All. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: My company, Bonaventure Explorations Ltd., has a consulting relationship with: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with: None. Please click here for more information.

3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.

4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Getchell Gold Corp., a company mentioned in this article.

 

Forex and Currency News Opinions
18 Jan

EURUSD H4: Bears ready to pounce if Bulls fail to breach key resistance

By ForexTime

The EURUSD on the H4 time frame was in an uptrend until 16 January when a last higher top was recorded at 1.08735.

A closer look at the Momentum Oscillator reveals negative divergence between point “a” and “b” when comparing the tops at 1.08671 and 1.08735. This could have alerted technically inclined traders that the bullish trend might lose power.

After the higher top at 1.08735, the price dropped through the 15 and 34 Simple Moving Averages and the Momentum Oscillator followed by moving into bearish territory.

A possible critical support level formed when a lower bottom was recorded on 18 January at 1.07654. The bulls are currently trying to drive the price higher.

If the price of EURUSD breaks through the critical support level at 1.07654, then three possible price targets may be projected from there.

Attaching the Fibonacci tool to the lower bottom at 1.07654 and dragging it to near a resistance level that was created on 17 January at 1.08734, the following targets may be anticipated:

  • The first target can be estimated at 1.06987 (161.8%).
  • The second price target may be calculated at 1.05907 (261.8%).
  • The third and final target can be expected at 1.04160 (423.6%).

If the resistance level at 1.08734 is broken, the above scenario must be re-examined.

After all, this could be a case of Euro bulls consolidating around 1.087, before mustering enough mass to punch past the immediate resistance levels that had thwarted EURUSD’s upside since last week.

 

As long as the bears continue their negative mindset and supply continues overcoming demand, the outlook for the EURUSD currency pair will remain bearish.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
17 Jan

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 17.01.2023 (EURUSD, BRENT, USDCAD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is pushing off the signal lines of the indicator. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, implying an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line is expected at 1.0775, followed by growth to 1.1005. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.0575, which will indicate further falling to 1.0485.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Oil is testing the Tenkan-Sen line of the indicator. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which implies an uptrend. A test of the support area at 84.00 is expected, followed by growth to 90.00. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the ascending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 77.00, which will entail further falling to 73.00.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

The currency pair is correcting inside a Triangle pattern. The instrument is going under the Ichimoku Cloud, which implies a downtrend. A test of the resistance level at 1.3405 is expected, followed by falling to 1.3165. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the upper border of the Triangle pattern. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 1.3545, which will indicate growth to 1.3635. The decline may be confirmed by a breakaway of the lower border of the Triangle pattern and securing above 1.3295.

USDCAD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
17 Jan

EUR Renewed Its Highs

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD starts this new week of January in a strong position. It is mainly fluctuating near 1.0855, which is very close to five-month highs. After the market got at hand some facts about a slow-down of the US inflation, dollar got under fierce attacks. This time, investors abandoned the “but on rumors, sell on facts” strategy and went on getting rid of the USD.

Market participants suppose that some positive signals from the background will let the Fed launch the final phase of the tight monetary policy.

Investors estimate the increase in the interest rate, expected by the market in February, as 25 base points. This is forecast by almost 92% of the poll participants.

On H4, EUR/USD has completed a wave of growth to 1.0871. Today the market is forming an impulse of decline to 1.0777. Practically, a consolidation range is likely to develop at these levels. With an escape downwards, a wave of decline should continue to 1.0677. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD: its signal line is at the highs, getting ready for a decline to zero.

On H1, the pair has formed a structure of a wave of growth to 1.0872. Today the market is developing the first wave of decline to 1.0775. After this level is reached, a link of correction to 1.0808 is not excluded, followed by a decline to 1.0677. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is above 80. A decline to 50 is expected. With a breakaway downwards here, a pathway for 20 will open.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
16 Jan

Pound to soar if UK & EU reach post-Brexit NI protocol deal

By George Prior

The British pound will be given a “much-needed and significant bounce” if a political agreement between the UK and the EU on the Northern Ireland protocol is reached, says the CEO of deVere Group.

Nigel Green, the chief executive and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations, is speaking out as the UK and European Union negotiators are reportedly closing in on a deal to end their long-running row over post-Brexit trading arrangements in Northern Ireland.

The protocol keeps Northern Ireland inside the EU’s single market for goods, meaning trade can flow across the land border without additional documentation or checks.  But, it also means there are further checks and more paperwork on goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain, angering some businesses and is opposed by unionists in Northern Ireland.

The deVere Group CEO says: “After sealing an agreement last week on trade data, the two sides are also nearing a resolution on customs aimed at reducing frictions between Great Britain and Northern Ireland since Brexit.

“It’s hoped that this could lead to a broader deal on the Northern Ireland Protocol and, ultimately, easing the political stalemate at Stormont.”

He continues: “Should this happen, we expect the pound to benefit from a significant bounce.

The hitherto hard-line approach on the Protocol has delivered a body blow to the British currency as it has hit businesses hard, impacting growth and investment, and the political uncertainty has whipped up market turbulence.”

Nigel Green goes on to add that a relief rally would be welcomed by many given the currency’s dismal performance last year.

“A boost is much-needed as sterling was the third-worst performing major currency of 2022.”

He concludes: “As the mood music on both sides improves with negotiators preparing for intensified talks this week, the pound will react positively.

“If a solution is found, pound pessimism will have peaked and we expect the currency to experience a decent rally.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
16 Jan

Trade of the Week: Yen on high alert with BoJ decision looming

By ForexTime 

Brace yourself!

We could be in for the-most-volatile week for USDJPY since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, at least going by the 1-week implied volatility for this pair:

 

USDJPY: What could trigger this week’s big move?

All eyes are on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting on Wednesday, even as December’s shocker rings fresh in the market’s minds.

Recall how, last month, the BoJ unexpectedly doubled the ceiling for 10-year yields up to 0.50%.

Such adjustments are widely seen as a precursor to the eventual BoJ rate hike, which markets expect to happen in April.

 

With all that in mind, here are 3 key things to look out for at this week’s BoJ meeting:

  1. Rate hike?

    It’s unlikely (only a 21% chance, based on market forecasts), but the Japanese central bank could deliver a shocker of epic proportions if it decides to hike its policy balance rate, which currently stands at minus 0.1%.

  2. Tweaks to policy language / inflation forecasts?

    The Yen is ready to react to any hints that the current BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda may drop about potential policy adjustments by the central bank before he steps down in April.

    Also, the central bank is due to release its quarterly economic projections this week. If the latest forecasts for core inflation (excluding food and energy) shows that the BoJ’s 2% target is drawing closer, that may invoke heightened market chatter than a BoJ rate hike will arrive sooner than expected, with such chatter likely to spur on further JPY gains.

  3. Yields cap hike, redux?

    Markets are bracing for another yet another upward adjustment to Japan’s 10-year yields cap, just as it did last month.

    Such forecasts can be derived from how Japan’s 10-year benchmark yields have behaved in recent days, with traders even willing to challenge the new ceiling, sending yields past the 0.5% cap since this past Friday:

Note that, generally speaking, higher yields lend themselves to a stronger currency.

Hence, no surprise that these surging yields have helped the Japanese Yen take full advantage of the weaker US dollar, with the former being one of the best-performing G10 currencies against the greenback so far this year.

 

But be warned! The BoJ could disappoint.

Given the market’s aggressive expectations for another policy adjustment, should the BoJ stand pat this week, that could upset Yen bulls and prompt the unwinding of the Yen’s 2.2% year-to-date gains against the US dollar.

The BoJ may also be inclined to push back against market expectations, at least to “save face” and not give the impression that December’s adjustment was inadequate, with policymakers having to “catch up” with bond markets since its last meeting.

Potential scenarios for USDJPY

Here are the same scenarios for USDJPY as stated in our Week Ahead article published last Friday:

  • If Governor Kuroda pushes back against the market’s expectations for a rate hike this year, that may prompt the Japanese Yen to unwind some of its recent gains and potentially pull USDJPY back above the psychologically-important 130 mark.
  • On the other hand, should markets detect the slightest of hawkish hints (BoJ is getting closer to a rate hike) out of Governor Kuroda next (update: this) week, that should move USDJPY closer towards 126.0 and potentially test the lower downtrend line that began in November.

Going back to the 1-week implied volatility chart at the top of this article, it also suggests a 70% chance that USDJPY could this week reach either as low as 123.9, or back up as high as 132.4.

 

It may all boil down to the incoming BoJ policy signals, and whether the central bank leans into or against market expectations for more policy tightening to come.

Technical pullback?

However, looking at the chart below, USDJPY’s 14-day relative strength index careened close to the 30 threshold which denotes “oversold conditions”.

That may explain the pullback in this currency pair at the time of writing, as USJPY recovers from such oversold conditions.

However, once the froth is cleared, that may pave the way for the next big move for USDJPY over the coming days.

Also look out for: Japan national CPI (consumer price index) due Friday, January 20

The headline inflation print out of the world’s third largest economy is due before the weekend, and is forecasted to post a 4% print – its highest in over three decades!

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has been willing to look beyond such elevated inflation numbers because he believes that the cost-push drivers are temporary. He wants to see more sustainable demand-pull inflation stemming from wage growth.

Still, a higher-than-expected CPI print may embolden those expecting the eventual BoJ rate hike to arrive perhaps as soon as Kuroda’s replacement takes the helm of the Japanese central bank in April.

The narrative above may boost the Yen’s fortunes further, even after its terrific start to the new year.

NOTE: Back on Jan 4, 2023, we highlighted JPY as one of the 3 potential winners of 2023, with USDJPY potentially dropping down to the 125 mark.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions
14 Jan

Currency Speculators pull back on Japanese Yen bearish bets to 21-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 10th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (11,487 contracts) with the EuroFX (5,067 contracts), Mexican Peso (2,995 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (2,577 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-9,155 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-6,510 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-4,516 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-4,189 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,221 contracts), Bitcoin (-983 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-130 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies data is the recent declines in the Japanese Yen bearish speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for the Yen rose by +11,487 contracts this week and have been higher for the fifth time over the past six weeks. Yen speculator bets have also gained in nine out of the past eleven weeks, going from a total of -102,618 contracts on October 25th to a 21-week bearish low of just -35,377 contracts this week.

The Yen price has been strongly improving in recent trade against the US dollar as the Yen has gained by approximately 16 percent since hitting a multi-decade low in October. The USDJPY currency pair has fallen from around 152.09 in October to trading currently below 128.00 at the close of this week.

Helping the Yen’s trend change course has been the Bank of Japan altering its bond yield policy with the BOJ allowing its bond-band to expand. Also, there has been a decline in the yield differential between Japan and the US since October – aided by a moderation in US inflation data.

Japan minus US 10 year yield differential

Japan minus US 10 year yield differential

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-10-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index42,3075016,54053-19,280452,74046
EUR746,16388134,98276-182,2102447,22854
GBP202,71339-29,4564435,26858-5,81247
JPY175,74535-35,3774734,4885288955
CHF33,26613-7,370358,20659-83655
CAD133,88819-30,955527,265913,69038
AUD126,02827-33,6905432,210431,48056
NZD27,56617,35074-8,499261,14965
MXN270,82682-53,381547,206926,17594
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL33,4291821,70169-23,574301,87383
Bitcoin14,89176-59467-29062327

 

Strength Scores led by Euro & New Zealand Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (76 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (69 percent), Bitcoin (67 percent) and the Australian Dollar (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (5 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (35 percent) and the British Pound (44 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (52.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (54.6 percent)
EuroFX (76.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (43.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (51.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (47.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (40.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (35.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (47.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (4.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (53.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (51.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (73.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (74.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (4.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (3.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (76.1 percent)
Bitcoin (66.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (83.7 percent)

 

New Zealand Dollar & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (33 percent) and the Japanese Yen (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (18 percent), the Brazilian Real (15 percent) and the Australian Dollar (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-51 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-18 percent), Bitcoin (-16 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-13.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-10.5 percent)
EuroFX (3.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (2.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (6.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (30.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-17.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-18.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (10.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (6.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (33.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (31.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (-50.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-51.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (15.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (20.9 percent)
Bitcoin (-16.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-5.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 16,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,761 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:80.22.713.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.148.37.2
– Net Position:16,540-19,2802,740
– Gross Longs:33,9281,1585,784
– Gross Shorts:17,38820,4383,044
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.1 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.545.146.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.914.6-9.4

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 134,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 129,915 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.053.712.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.978.15.9
– Net Position:134,982-182,21047,228
– Gross Longs:238,623400,77591,275
– Gross Shorts:103,641582,98544,047
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.7 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.424.354.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.9-7.823.7

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -29,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,301 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.868.311.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.350.914.5
– Net Position:-29,45635,268-5,812
– Gross Longs:36,007138,53223,559
– Gross Shorts:65,463103,26429,371
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.758.046.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.1-9.513.4

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -35,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.067.816.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.148.216.0
– Net Position:-35,37734,488889
– Gross Longs:26,395119,16628,973
– Gross Shorts:61,77284,67828,084
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.152.555.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.7-23.532.8

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,370 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,516 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,854 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.051.237.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.226.540.2
– Net Position:-7,3708,206-836
– Gross Longs:3,66817,03412,542
– Gross Shorts:11,0388,82813,378
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.158.554.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.2-19.416.5

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -30,955 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,766 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.656.124.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.735.722.1
– Net Position:-30,95527,2653,690
– Gross Longs:22,16675,06033,283
– Gross Shorts:53,12147,79529,593
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.991.437.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.711.13.1

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -33,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,267 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.056.916.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.731.315.1
– Net Position:-33,69032,2101,480
– Gross Longs:30,21071,69620,573
– Gross Shorts:63,90039,48619,093
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.642.956.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.1-14.018.9

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -130 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,480 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.738.215.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.169.011.1
– Net Position:7,350-8,4991,149
– Gross Longs:12,60710,5204,206
– Gross Shorts:5,25719,0193,057
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.926.564.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.2-31.08.5

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -53,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,376 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.241.33.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:74.923.90.9
– Net Position:-53,38147,2066,175
– Gross Longs:149,517111,9708,593
– Gross Shorts:202,89864,7642,418
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.7 to 13.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.692.593.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-50.950.0-2.9

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 21,701 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:75.412.910.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.583.45.0
– Net Position:21,701-23,5741,873
– Gross Longs:25,2104,3223,561
– Gross Shorts:3,50927,8961,688
– Long to Short Ratio:7.2 to 10.2 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.230.483.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.1-14.6-1.7

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -983 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 389 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:80.53.09.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:84.53.24.8
– Net Position:-594-29623
– Gross Longs:11,9894471,339
– Gross Shorts:12,583476716
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.663.127.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.036.53.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
13 Jan

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 13.01.2023 (USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDCHF)

By RoboForex.com

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

On H4, at the support level, the pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern. The pair is now going by the signal in an ascending wave. The goal of the growth might be 1.3455; later the price might break through it and extend correction. However, the price may drop to 1.3300 without any correction at all.

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

In H4, at the resistance level, the pair has formed a Handing Man reversal pattern. The pair may now go by the signal in an ascending wave. The goal of the pullback might be 0.6920. After a test of the support level the quotes might get the chance for a bounce off it and an extension of the uptrend. However, the price may grow to 0.7015 without any pullback.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

On H4, at the resistance level, the pair has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern. The pair may now go by the signal in a descending wave. The goal of the decline might be 0.9250. Upon testing the resistance level, the pair might break through it and continue the downtrend. However, the price may pull back to 0.9350 before falling.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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