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Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 30.01.2023 (AUDUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is testing the signal lines of the indicator. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 0.7005 is expected, followed by growth to 0.7315. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 0.6930, which will mean further falling to 0.6840.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is testing the resistance level. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 1.2350 is expected, followed by growth to 1.2685. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the ascending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.2245, which will mean further falling to 1.2135.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is squeezed inside the Triangle pattern. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 0.6470 is expected, followed by growth to 0.6665. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the Triangle pattern. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 0.6405, which will mean further falling to 0.6310. The growth can be confirmed by a breakaway of the upper border of the Triangle pattern and securing above 0.6550.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

30 Jan

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.01.30

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0889
Prev Close: 1.0867
% chg. over the last day: -0.20 %

The core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index declined from 4.7% to 4.4%. This indicator is on the US Federal Reserve’s list of monitored inflation indicators and influences monetary policy. It is clear that inflationary pressures in the US are declining, and the peak of inflation is behind us. The next move is up to the US Fed. A 0.25% rate hike this week is pretty much a done deal. The only uncertainty remains as to when the Fed will make its last rate hike and take a long pause.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0834, 1.0801, 1.0781, 1.0710, 1.0650, 1.0597, 1.0535
Resistance levels: 1.0882, 1.0926

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bullish. The price is forming a price range again, which makes it difficult to find good entry points. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, the sellers’ pressure remains, but it is weak. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0833 with confirmation in the form of a false breakdown on intraday time frames. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0882, but better with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0801 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.30:

– Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– Germany GDP (q/q) at 11:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2397
Prev Close: 1.2393
% chg. over the last day: -0.03 %

There will be a lot of economic data on the UK this week. The main event will be the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting, where an interest rate hike of 0.5% is expected. The British pound has been holding steady during the last trading week, but economists are not optimistic about the prospects of the UK economy and forecast a decrease in the quotes in the near future. According to experts, the UK economy is already in recession, and raising the rate will only increase the negative pressure.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2344, 1.2292, 1.2263, 1.2220, 1.2080, 1.2000, 1.1928, 1.1875, 1.1684
Resistance levels: 1.2413, 1.2446, 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bullish. The price forms a narrow price range. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and buying pressure is decreasing, with liquidity narrowing into a triangle. This often happens before an impulse movement. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2344 but with a confirmation in the form of a false breakdown. It is better to look for sell trades from the resistance level of 1.2413, but it is also better to confirm in the form of a reverse initiative because a false breakout has already occurred.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2263 support level and fixes above it, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 130.21
Prev Close: 129.83
% chg. over the last day: -0.29 %

Despite good economic data last week showing US GDP and Michigan sentiment outperforming expectations, the USD/JPY quotes were unable to move above 131.00. This suggests that investors are anticipating dollar weakness ahead of this week’s interest rate decision. Also, last week the IMF suggested that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) should be prepared to end economic stimulus quickly if inflation continues to rise and provide clear guidance to the market on any future policy changes.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 129.05, 128.16, 127.53, 126.19
Resistance levels: 130.27, 130.58, 131.10, 130.61, 131.58, 132.37, 132.95, 133.23

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is still bearish. The price is trading in the price corridor. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but within the day, sellers prevail. It is better to look for buy trades from the support level of 129.05, but only with confirmation on the lower time frames. Sell deals can be searched for from the resistance level of 130.27 in case of a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above the resistance level of 131.58, the uptrend will be renewed with a high probability.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3315
Prev Close: 1.3310
% chg. over the last day: -0.04 %

OPEC+ countries will meet this week. Delegates expect the advisory committee of ministers to recommend that production levels remain unchanged as global demand shows signs of potential recovery. Given current production and increasing Chinese demand, fundamentally, this could serve as the basis for a further rise in oil prices. Rising oil prices contribute to the strength of the Canadian currency.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3303, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3376, 1.3428, 1.3445, 1.3496, 1.3520, 1.3554, 1.3595, 1.3632

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The price is trading at the level of moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there is a divergence. The return of the price above the trend line may provoke a sharp rise in quotes. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered when the price returns above 1.3325, but with additional confirmation in the form of an impulse initiative. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance level of 1.3376, but only with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3513, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Jan

Currency Speculators add to EuroFX bullish bets as EURUSD trades at 1.0900

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 24th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by EuroFX & US Dollar Index

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (7,365 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (1,805 contracts), Japanese Yen (1,326 contracts), British Pound (763 contracts), Brazilian Real (592 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (449 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the New Zealand Dollar (-3,884 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-3,453 contracts), Swiss Franc (-1,567 contracts), Bitcoin (-810 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-101 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the strength of the speculator’s positioning in the Euro. Large speculative positions rose this week by over +7,300 contracts and have risen in four out of the past six weeks. Euro weekly positions have now also been higher in sixteen out of the past twenty-one weeks, going from a total of -47,676 contracts on August 30th to this week’s total net position of +134,349 contracts.

The Euro speculator positions have now been above +100,000 contracts for the past thirteen consecutive weeks which is the best streak since early in 2021. The Euro strength index, a measure of positions compared to the past three year’s range, has now moved up to a level of 76 percent strength of last three years.

The Euro exchange rate against the US Dollar hit it’s highest level this week since April above the 1.0900 exchange level. Since October, the Euro has now had higher weekly closes in eleven out of the past fifteen weeks and looks to soon make a run at the psychological 1.1000 level.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	41,233	48	15,163	50	-17,909	47	2,746	47
EUR	777,569	100	134,349	76	-186,450	23	52,101	62
GBP	194,051	33	-23,934	48	27,654	53	-3,720	51
JPY	173,321	34	-21,635	56	17,145	44	4,490	63
CHF	35,368	20	-9,508	29	11,565	64	-2,057	51
CAD	137,476	22	-30,712	5	29,159	93	1,553	33
AUD	129,490	29	-33,171	54	29,706	41	3,465	61
NZD	32,710	12	2,174	60	-4,241	36	2,067	75
MXN	272,655	83	-48,740	7	42,327	90	6,413	95
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	45,128	34	22,785	70	-23,618	30	833	71
Bitcoin	17,390	93	-1,437	52	912	0	525	25

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (76 percent) and the Brazilian Real (70 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (60 percent), Japanese Yen (56 percent) and the Australian Dollar (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (5 percent) and the Mexican Peso (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (29 percent) and the British Pound (48 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (50.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (47.2 percent)
EuroFX (76.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (48.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (47.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (55.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (54.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (29.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (33.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (5.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (54.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (53.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (60.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (70.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (6.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (6.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (70.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.7 percent)
Bitcoin (51.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (66.0 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (26 percent) and the Brazilian Real (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (19 percent), the Swiss Franc (6 percent) and the Australian Dollar (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Bitcoin (-24 percent), the US Dollar Index (-18 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-17.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-19.2 percent)
EuroFX (3.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (1.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (3.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (26.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (11.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-4.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-6.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (6.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (25.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (33.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-40.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-42.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (20.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (21.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-24.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-12.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,163 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.7	2.4	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	45.8	7.0
– Net Position:	15,163	-17,909	2,746
– Gross Longs:	33,291	981	5,614
– Gross Shorts:	18,128	18,890	2,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.2	47.3	46.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	16.8	0.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 134,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 126,984 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.6	55.2	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	79.2	5.7
– Net Position:	134,349	-186,450	52,101
– Gross Longs:	237,743	429,253	96,793
– Gross Shorts:	103,394	615,703	44,692
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.2	23.1	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-8.2	31.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -23,934 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 763 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	65.6	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	51.3	15.5
– Net Position:	-23,934	27,654	-3,720
– Gross Longs:	34,756	127,207	26,309
– Gross Shorts:	58,690	99,553	30,029
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	52.9	50.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-2.5	3.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	65.4	17.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.4	55.6	15.3
– Net Position:	-21,635	17,145	4,490
– Gross Longs:	27,620	113,437	31,009
– Gross Shorts:	49,255	96,292	26,519
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	44.0	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.4	-20.4	21.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -9,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	57.1	32.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.1	24.4	38.4
– Net Position:	-9,508	11,565	-2,057
– Gross Longs:	3,624	20,185	11,540
– Gross Shorts:	13,132	8,620	13,597
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.5	64.1	50.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.1	-7.3	7.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -30,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,259 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	56.4	22.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	35.2	21.4
– Net Position:	-30,712	29,159	1,553
– Gross Longs:	25,978	77,571	30,927
– Gross Shorts:	56,690	48,412	29,374
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.2	93.0	33.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	3.5	-1.6

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 449 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,620 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	57.8	17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.4	34.8	15.0
– Net Position:	-33,171	29,706	3,465
– Gross Longs:	29,466	74,818	22,903
– Gross Shorts:	62,637	45,112	19,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.1	41.0	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-9.8	20.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,058 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	50.9	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.4	63.9	9.2
– Net Position:	2,174	-4,241	2,067
– Gross Longs:	10,170	16,662	5,077
– Gross Shorts:	7,996	20,903	3,010
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	36.5	75.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.9	-24.4	7.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,740 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.4	42.2	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.3	26.7	0.8
– Net Position:	-48,740	42,327	6,413
– Gross Longs:	148,265	115,053	8,628
– Gross Shorts:	197,005	72,726	2,215
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1	3.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.7	90.3	95.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.6	39.2	5.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.1	13.0	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	65.3	6.1
– Net Position:	22,785	-23,618	833
– Gross Longs:	35,691	5,847	3,585
– Gross Shorts:	12,906	29,465	2,752
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.3	30.3	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.7	-18.9	-14.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,437 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -627 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.0	7.8	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.2	2.6	5.4
– Net Position:	-1,437	912	525
– Gross Longs:	13,036	1,365	1,467
– Gross Shorts:	14,473	453	942
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	3.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.9	100.0	24.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.4	59.0	1.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

27 Jan

Murrey Math Lines 27.01.2023 (Brent, S&P 500)

By RoboForex.com

Brent

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI has broken through the resistance line. The quotes are now expected to rise above 8/8 (87.50) and later reach the resistance level of +2/8 (90.62). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level of 7/8 (85.94). In this case, the quotes may drop to 5/8 (82.81).

On M15, the upper line of VoltyChannel is broken away, which confirms the uptrend and increases the probability of further growth.

S&P 500

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates an uptrend. A divergence has formed on the RSI, being a signal for a correction to start. As a result, a bounce off 4/8 (4062.5) should be expected, followed by falling of the support level of 2/8 (3906.2). The scenario can be cancelled by an upwards breakaway of the resistance level. In this case, the quotes might keep growing and reach 5/8 (4141.6).

On M15, an additional signal confirming the decline will be a breakaway of the lower border of VoltyChannel.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Jan

Week Ahead: EURUSD to reach cloud 9?

By ForexTime

The world’s most-traded currency pair could reach a fresh 9-month high in the upcoming week, as markets compare the latest policy clues between the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

To be clear, it’ll be a massive week that extends beyond major central bank decisions (the Bank of England is in action too).

We’ll also see the biggest tech earnings, and even an OPEC+ decision.

In other words, major asset classes are set to be rocked by these major economic data releases and events due in the week ahead:

Monday, January 30

NZD: New Zealand December external trade
CNH: Mainland China markets reopen after Lunar New Year
EUR: Eurozone January economic confidence
IMF publishes World Economic Outlook update

Tuesday, January 31

JPY: Japan December unemployment, retail sales, industrial production
AUD: Australia December retail sales
CNH: China December industrial profits, January PMIs
EUR: Eurozone 4Q GDP
USD: US January consumer confidence
Exxon Mobil earnings

Wednesday, February 1

NZD: New Zealand 4Q unemployment
CNH: China Caixin manufacturing PMI
EUR: Eurozone January CPI and manufacturing PMI, December unemployment
GBP: UK January manufacturing PMI
Brent: OPEC+ meeting
USD: Fed rate decision
Meta earnings

Thursday, February 2

EUR: European Central Bank rate decision
GBP: Bank of England rate decision
USD: US weekly initial jobless claims
S&P 500: Earnings from Alphabet, Apple, and Amazon

Friday, February 3

CNH: China January services/composite PMI
USD: US nonfarm payrolls report

Here’s what markets currently expect for next week’s Fed meeting:

Fed will hike by 25 basis points (bps) on February 1st.
Fed will hike again by a further 25 bps sometime after next week’s meeting, but no later than June 2023.
Those two hikes would bring US interest rates from the current 4.5% up to around 5%.
The Fed will then keep its benchmark rate at around that 5% mark for a while, before cutting interest rates later this year.

On the ECB side of the equation:

ECB to hike by 50bps next week – double the expected size of the Fed’s upcoming hike.
The ECB is forecasted to have another 75bps in hikes more to go through mid-year.

In fewer words:
Fed = 50 bps hikes total remaining (including next week’s 25bps hike)
ECB = 125 bps hikes total remaining (including next week’s 50bps hike)

This idea that the ECB has more rate hikes in store relative to the Fed is what’s been propelling EURUSD to its highest levels since April 2022.

However, note that EURUSD’s surge is consolidating just below a key Fibonacci level – the 50% line from its January 2021 through September 2022 descent.

The price action suggests that the next move for EURUSD may well depend greatly on what either the ECB or Fed reveals next week.

Potential scenarios for EURUSD:

EURUSD could be pushed into “cloud 9” if the ECB persists with its hawkish stance, while the Fed starts warming up to the idea of pausing its own rate hikes (or at least markets do not believe any hawkish tones emanating out of the Fed next week).Such an outcome is also likely to invoke further cheer across other asset classes, from stocks to gold, and even crypto.
However, if:
- the Fed triggers a larger-than-expected 50bps hike next week
- presses home the message that US interest rates will be sent past the market-forecasted 5% target this year.
- and markets actually believe the Fed’s hawkish intentions

(or a combo of the above factors)

… that may rapidly unwind some of EURUSD’s recent gains.

Key support/resistance levels for EURUSD:

SUPPORT

1.0770 region: previous cycle low, June 2022 resistance zone
1.07365: mid-December cycle high
1.061 region: 38.2% Fib line and around where 50-day simple moving average (SMA) resides

RESISTANCE

1.09426: 50% Fib line
1.112 – 1.114: March 2022 resistance
1.11848: end-March cycle high

At the time of writing, markets are forecasting a 70% chance that EURUSD will trade within the 1.07 – 1.105 range over the next one-week, while the implied-volatility is back to its year-to-date high which saw the latest leg up for EURUSD.

Ultimately, this next big move for the world’s most-traded currency is set to be dictated by what either the Fed or the ECB signals to the markets next week.

Make sure you also check back on Monday (January 30th) for our next Trade of the Week (published every Monday), as we then focus on GBPUSD and how it may react to the upcoming policy signals out of the Fed vs. the BOE.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 Jan

Murrey Math Lines 26.01.2023 (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI has bounced off the support level. As a result, a downward breakaway of 2/8 (0.9155) is expected, followed by falling to the support level of 1/8 (0.9094). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over 3/8 (0.9216). In this case, the pair may rise to the resistance level of 4/8 (0.9277).

On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is broken away. This increases the probability of further falling.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI has bounced off the support level. Further growth to the resistance level of 8/8 (2000.00) should be expected. The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level of 6/8 (1937.50). This might entail falling to 5/8 (1906.25).

On M15, the upper line of VoltyChannel is broken away, which confirms the uptrend and a high probability of growth.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

25 Jan

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: Breakouts In Focus

By ForexTime

European shares struggled for direction on Wednesday as investors awaited corporate earnings for fresh directional cues ahead of a busy week for financial markets.

The overall mood has been dampened by mass layoffs in the tech space and signs of slowing global growth. With recession fears sapping risk appetite, stock markets remain vulnerable to further losses. In the currency space, the dollar seems to be drawing strength from risk aversion – dragging other G10 currencies lower. Regarding commodities, oil prices remain shaky while gold has slipped from a nine-month high.

Some trading opportunities may be forming during this period of uneasy calm and growing tension. Our tool of choice this afternoon will be technical analysis with our focus falling on currencies, commodities, and indices.

GBPUSD trapped within range

It has been a choppy affair for the GBPUSD over the past few days. Prices remain trapped within a range with support at 1.2150 and resistance at 1.2450. A breakout could be on the horizon but this may need the assistance of a fresh directional catalyst. Although prices are trading above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA, bears seem to be back in the vicinity. Prices may test the 1.2150 level in the short to medium term. A breakdown below this point could open a path back toward 1.2000.

USDJPY to resume downside

USDJPY remains under pressure on the weekly timeframe as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Prices are trading below 130.00 and could challenge 126.50 in the short to medium term. A strong breakdown below 126.50 may open the doors toward 122.00. If prices are able to push back above 130.00, the next key point can be found at 133.20.

AUDUSD approaches resistance

Aussie bulls continue to draw strength from dollar weakness. After breaking above the 0.7000 level, prices have pushed higher, with 0.7135 acting as a key point of interest. A breakout above this level could suggest an incline towards 0.7250. Should prices slip back below 0.7000, the AUDUSD may decline toward 0.6900.

USDCAD gearing for breakdown?

USDCAD could be on the brink of a breakdown as prices wobble above the 1.3350 support level. A solid move below this point could open the doors towards 1.3240 and potentially lower. Should 1.3350 prove to be reliable support, a rebound back toward 1.3500 could be on the cards.

Gold bull’s still in control

Zooming out on the weekly charts, gold remains firmly bullish on the weekly timeframe. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while the MACD trades above zero. A solid breakout and weekly close above $1940 may trigger an incline toward the psychological $2000 level. Should $1940 prove to be a tough nut to crack, the precious metal may dip back toward $1900.

S&P 500 remains rangebound

The S&P500 has been trapped within a wide range since May 2022. May support can be found around 3600 and resistance at 4300 on the monthly timeframe. Given the various fundamental forces influencing global sentiment, a breakout could be on the horizon. A strong breakout above 4300 could open a path towards 4819.5. Alternatively, a selloff below 3600 could signal a further decline towards 3250.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

25 Jan

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 25.01.2023 (XAUUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD)

By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

At the resistance level, gold has formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern. The pair is now going by the signal in a descending wave. The goal of the correction might be 1915.00. Upon testing the support level, the pair will get the chance for bouncing off it and continue the uptrend. However, the price may grow directly to 1945.50 without testing the support level.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

On H4, at the resistance level, the pair has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern. The pair may now go by the signal in a descending wave. The goal of the pullback might be 0.6445. After a bounce off the support level, the pair might get the chance to continue the uptrend. However, the price may grow to 0.6550 without any correction.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

On H4, at the support level, the pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern. The instrument may now go by the signal in an ascending wave. The goal of the growth might be the resistance level at 1.2430. However, the price may correct to 1.2275 and continue the uptrend after a pullback to the support level.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

23 Jan

Murrey Math Lines 23.01.2023 (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

On H4, the quotes are in the overbought area. The RSI is also nearing the overbought area. As a result, a downward breakaway of +1/8 (1.0864) should be expected, from where the price might fall to the support level of 8/8 (1.0741). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of +2/8 (1.0986), which might lead to reshuffling of Murrey lines and setting new goals for the price.

On M15, an additional signal confirming the decline will be a breakaway of the lower border of VoltyChannel.

GBPUSDD

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates an uptrend. However, the RSI demonstrates a divergence. This means that a bounce off 6/8 (1.2451) should be expected, followed by falling to the support level of 4/8 (1.2207). This movement will be interpreted as a correction of the uptrend. The scenario can be cancelled by an upward breakaway of 6/8 (1.2451), in which case the pair might continue growth and reach 7/8 (1.2573).

On M15, a breakaway of the lower border of VoltyChannel will increase the probability of falling.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

23 Jan

Trade Of The Week: EURUSD In Breakout Mode?

By ForexTime

EURUSD may be gearing up for a major breakout as the technicals and fundamentals continue to align.

Over the past few months, euro bulls dominated the scene – pushing prices further away from parity. It also stood its ground in the G10 space, appreciating against most counterparts thanks to fundamental forces.

The single European currency has already kicked off the trading week punching above 1.09, marking a new high since April 2022! With the strong upside momentum showing little signs of cooling down, further upside could be on the cards – especially with the support of economic data.

As the discussion around interest rates between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central bank (ECB) rages on, this is likely to result in increased volatility for the EURUSD. The Euro continues to draw strength from a weaker dollar, rising inflation in the Eurozone, and most importantly a hawkish ECB. On the other hand, repeated signs of easing inflationary pressures in the United States have fuelled speculation about the Fed slowing down its pace of rate increases. Ultimately, the narrowing monetary policy divergence between both central banks is likely to fuel the upside in the EURUSD.

Taking a quick look at the technical picture, the EURUSD remains firmly bullish on the daily charts with prices pressing against 1.0900 as of writing. A solid breakout above this point could encourage an incline towards 1.1200.

The low down…

Christine Lagarde delivered her hawkish message to Davos last week, warning markets not to underestimate the ECB’s monetary policy. Lagarde stated that inflation remained “way too high” with the ECB determined to stay the course on rates till inflation returned to 2%. Markets widely expect the central bank to raise interest rates by 50 basis points next month and potentially a similar move in March. However, this may be influenced by economic data and the Ukraine war. Nevertheless, with inflation still at lofty levels, this may keep doves at bay while empowering hawks.

Regarding the Fed, it has kicked off a two-week black period ahead of the rate meeting on Wednesday 1st of February. With Fed speeches out of the picture, the dollar is set to be influenced by key economic reports. If the incoming data continues to fuel dollar weakness, this will add to the growing list of factors pushing the EURUSD higher.

The week ahead

It is a data-heavy week for the EUR and USD.

On Monday, the Euro was knocked lower by the disappointing consumer confidence figures for January. Although consumer confidence rose for a third month to -22.2 in December 2022, this was below market expectations. Appetite towards the single Euro currency could be rekindled if Christine Lagarde strikes a hawkish note during her speech this evening.

Tuesday sees the Eurozone and US January PMI’s which could inject fresh volatility into the EURUSD. On Wednesday, we have the January IFO business climate figure for Germany, and all-important US Q4 GDP figures on Thursday. The first estimate of Q4 GDP is expected to show that economic growth slowed in Q4. According to Bloomberg, forecasts point to an increase of 2.7% compared to the 3.2% growth witnessed in the third quarter of 2022. A disappointing figure may compound the dollar’s woes, dragging prices lower as bets on smaller Fed rate hikes intensify. Much attention will be on the US December personal income data, including the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – the core PCE deflator. This is expected to cool further to 4.4% year-on-year compared to the 4.7% seen in November. A report that meets or prints below forecast may weaken the USD even further.

EURUSD poised to push higher

In our 2023 market outlook, we highlighted how a weaker dollar could fuel the EURUSD’s great rebound. Fast forward to today, the currency pair has jumped almost 400 pips. Prices remain firmly bullish on the daily, weekly, and monthly timeframe. Although 1.0900 may provide some resistance, the fundamentals and technicals favour further upside. A strong monthly close above 1.0900 may signal a move towards 1.1200 in February.

Zooming into the daily charts, there are a couple of smaller checkpoints before prices potentially hit 1.1200, which are 1.0970 and 1.1120. Should 1.0900 prove to be reliable resistance, a decline towards 1.0770 and 1.0700 could be on the table.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

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All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.