Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 42

Japanese Yen Surges: Potential Intervention Amid Inflation Shocks

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair experienced a significant drop to 159.06, driven by sharp declines following the release of unexpectedly low US inflation figures and potential interventions from Japanese authorities.

On Thursday, the pair plunged nearly 3%, prompted by US inflation data and rumours of Tokyo’s intervention to bolster the yen, which is nearing 38-year lows. Masato Kanda, Japan’s chief currency diplomat, hinted at readiness to intervene in the currency market but remained non-committal about the specific actions taken the previous evening.

Market participants are left to speculate on the nature of these moves as official data that could confirm government interventions will only be available at the end of the month. Reports from Asahi suggest that interventions did occur, while Nikkei highlighted the BoJ’s inspections of banks’ euro-yen rates, potentially escalating market tensions and supporting the yen’s strength.

USD/JPY technical analysis

The USD/JPY chart shows a second correction impulse down to 157.40. The potential for a recovery to 159.60 is noted, which would serve as a test from below. A subsequent decline to 157.22 is anticipated. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero, indicating a downward trend.

The H1 chart confirms the formation of a downward trajectory towards 157.22, with the immediate target of 157.40 already achieved. A rebound to 159.60 is expected, followed by another decline to the target level. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this analysis, showing a signal line above 80 and preparing for a downward adjustment to 20, suggesting potential for further declines.

Investors and traders will closely watch further statements from Japanese officials and the forthcoming official statistics to clarify the situation, as these factors will significantly influence the yen’s trajectory in the near term.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Japanese Yen Faces Continued Decline Amid Interest Rate Differentials

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair has risen to 161.65, with the market cautious ahead of today’s US consumer price index release. Despite this, the yen remains weakened by the significant interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve.

Earlier this year, the BoJ abandoned its longstanding negative interest rate policy, adjusting the rate to zero. However, this adjustment has not halted the yen’s depreciation, raising concerns about the currency’s ongoing decline.

Investors eagerly await the BoJ’s meeting in July, where crucial decisions on bond purchases are expected. The outcome of this meeting could mark a significant shift in Japan’s monetary policy.

Mixed economic signals from Japan

Morning statistics from Japan showed mixed results. Core machinery orders declined by 3.2% month-on-month in May, following a 2.9% decrease the previous month. However, on an annual basis, these orders increased by 10.8%, surpassing the expected 7.2% growth, suggesting some underlying strength in the industrial sector.

USD/JPY technical analysis

The USD/JPY is establishing a consolidation range around 161.12. The price could reach up to 162.00, considered a local target within the current upward trend. Following this level, a correction to 158.80 is anticipated, which could lead to another growth phase targeting 163.30. This bullish outlook is supported technically by the MACD indicator, where the signal line is prominently above zero and oriented upward.

On the H1 chart, the pair has completed a growth structure reaching 161.79. Currently, a downward impulse to 161.47 has been observed. A continuation of this correction to 161.12 is expected, which should precede another rise to 162.00. This analysis is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with the signal line poised to drop from above 80 to 20, indicating potential short-term pullbacks before further gains.

Investors and traders will closely monitor upcoming data releases and central bank communications to gauge the potential directions for both the yen and broader currency markets.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD Holds Firm Amid Weakening Dollar and Rate Cut Expectations

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair is maintaining its position close to a multi-week high of 1.0829, benefitting from the weakening US dollar following a disappointing June US employment market report. Market anticipation is now building ahead of an upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Despite the looming potential for political deadlock in France, the euro has remained resilient. Investors are finding reassurance in the belief that the current political situation may act as a deterrent to any drastic fiscal measures from far-right or far-left parties, thereby stabilising the financial landscape.

With a relatively quiet macroeconomic calendar, attention is squarely on the US interest rate trajectory. According to CME FedWatch, the likelihood of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting has increased to 76%, up from 66% the previous week. Expectations are also growing for a second rate cut in December.

Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress, starting Tuesday, will be pivotal for currency markets, as insights into the Fed’s policy outlook could influence exchange rates significantly.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD is navigating through a consolidation range just above the 1.0806 level. There is a strong potential for an upward move towards 1.0900, which is currently being considered. If this level is reached, a retest to 1.0844 may follow before another potential rise to 1.0944. This bullish setup is further supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero and points upwards, indicating a continued upward momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market is poised for further advancement after completing a growth pattern to 1.0840 and a subsequent correction to 1.0820. A move towards 1.0844 is expected. If this level is breached, it could pave the way to 1.0900. The Stochastic oscillator reinforces this outlook, with the signal line currently above 50 and trending upwards, suggesting a strengthening bullish momentum.

Investors will be keenly watching for Powell’s comments and any further economic indicators this week, as they could play a crucial role in shaping short-term market dynamics and currency valuations.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

AUD/USD Hits Six-Month High Amid RBA Rate Hike Speculations

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The AUD/USD pair reached a six-month high of 0.6752, marking its fifth consecutive day of gains. The currency’s strength is largely driven by market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might diverge from the global trend of lowering interest rates, raising them in response to escalating inflation pressures. May’s CPI figures have intensified discussions around monetary tightening.

Market sentiment is split between expectations for a rate hike and maintaining the current rates at the RBA’s next meeting in August. High domestic yields draw international capital, boost the Australian dollar, and provide a haven from the political uncertainties in the US and Europe.

Moreover, a weaker US dollar, underscored by unimpressive economic data released on Friday, has also bolstered the AUD. This data reinforced the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance on monetary policy.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

The market has established a broad consolidation pattern centred around 0.6723. Moving forward, there is a potential for an upward movement to 0.6822. Once this level is reached, a retraction to 0.6750 for a retest might occur, followed by a continuation of the upward trajectory towards 0.6858. This bullish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line positioned above zero and trending upwards.

The AUD/USD pair is currently challenging the 0.6757 level, with the potential to extend the rally towards 0.6806. Following this target, a pullback to 0.6757 could occur, setting the stage for another rise to 0.6822. The stochastic oscillator, situated above the 50 mark, suggests an imminent climb to 80, reinforcing the bullish momentum forecasted.

Traders and investors are closely monitoring developments, especially the upcoming RBA meeting, which could significantly influence the direction of the AUD/USD pair.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

AUD/USD Sees Uptick Amidst Mixed Sentiment

By RoboForex Analytical Department

AUD/USD has climbed to 0.6676 yet remains in a “sideways” pattern, indicating a lack of clear directional momentum in the market.

The Australian dollar’s appreciation is linked to a softening in the US dollar’s stance, influenced by remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell highlighted the need for further economic data to assess the disinflationary trends, suggesting a cautious approach to rate adjustments. This uncertainty around US monetary policy has led to a dip in the USD, boosting AUD.

Conversely, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains a vigilant stance on inflation, with recent minutes suggesting a potential rate hike if inflationary pressures escalate. This possibility lends some support to the Australian dollar. Recent economic data from Australia, including a spike in May’s retail sales and continued private sector growth in June, further bolsters this perspective.

Market speculation hints at a potential RBA rate increase in August, with forthcoming data likely to provide clearer indicators of this likelihood.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair navigates within a broad consolidation range, forming a diverging “Triangle” around 0.6662. Currently, there is potential for the price to ascend to 0.6702. Upon reaching this level, a retraction to 0.6662 is anticipated, with a potential downward break targeting 0.6555 before resuming upward movements towards 0.6737. The MACD indicator supports this growth scenario, with its signal line positioned above zero and upwards.

On the hourly chart, a tight consolidation has been observed around 0.6662. The expected trajectory involves an ascent to 0.6690, potentially extending to 0.6702. This growth forecast is underscored by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is above 80, suggesting an impending downward adjustment to around 50.

Market outlook

As the global financial landscape navigates through mixed economic signals and central bank policies, the AUD/USD pair will likely continue to experience volatility. Investors and traders will closely monitor upcoming economic releases and central bank communications to gauge the potential shifts in monetary policy, especially from the RBA and the Fed, which could significantly influence the currency pair’s movements in the near term.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD Struggles to Maintain Gains Amid Mixed Economic Signals

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair experienced a noticeable uptick yesterday, but failed to sustain its peak, settling at 1.0732 today. Early gains were buoyed by the initial outcomes from France’s parliamentary elections, which did not reflect the worst-case scenario, sparking a temporary surge in risk appetite and bolstering the euro.

However, last evening’s economic indicators from the U.S. painted a mixed picture, dampening the initial enthusiasm. The ISM Manufacturing Index for June dipped to 48.5 from 48.7, falling short of expectations and remaining below the pivotal 50-point mark that delineates expansion from contraction. Conversely, Markit’s Manufacturing PMI indicated a slight improvement, rising to 51.6 from 51.3.

Additionally, a report showed a 0.1% month-on-month decline in U.S. construction spending for May, a reversal from the previous increase of 0.3% and weaker than anticipated, suggesting a potential slowdown in the construction sector and broader economic support.

Market participants are now turning their attention to an upcoming speech by Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, for further clues on the direction of U.S. monetary policy.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair completed a correction to 1.0774 but is now forming a declining wave towards 1.0675. Should this level be reached, a minor correction to 1.0714 may occur before a potential further drop to 1.0630, and potentially extending down to 1.0573. The MACD indicator underlines this bearish outlook with its signal line positioned below zero and histograms trending downwards.

On the hourly chart, the pair is currently crafting a declining structure with an initial target at 1.0675. Following this, a correction towards 1.0714 is plausible, before a continuation of the downtrend to 1.0640. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this view, with its signal line approaching the 20 level, indicating a potential for further declines before a rebound towards 50 might occur.

Market outlook

Investors will continue to assess the blend of economic data and central bank signals, particularly from the Fed, to gauge the potential trajectory of interest rates and their impact on currency valuations. Today’s speech by Jerome Powell could be particularly pivotal in setting market expectations moving forward.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

The Japanese yen faces further depreciation amid rate differentials

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair continues to escalate, currently positioned at 160.88, nearing the 37-year peak of 161.27 achieved last Friday.

Early today, the yen temporarily strengthened following Japan’s Q2 Tankan survey results, which indicated a slight improvement in industrial sentiment to 13 points from 11. However, the services sector displayed mixed results, maintaining 27 points against predictions of an increase, with future expectations slightly downgraded.

Despite these data points, the predominant driver of the yen’s weakness remains the significant interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the US Federal Reserve.

The BoJ has no immediate plans to adjust interest rates but might alter its government bond purchases, hinting at potential monetary tightening. However, market sentiment remains sceptical about such changes, contributing to the yen’s downward pressure.

USD/JPY technical analysis

The USD/JPY is creating a consolidation range just below the 161.26 level. A brief surge to 161.33, considered a local peak within this upward trend, is possible. After this level, a corrective movement to 158.66 might initiate, potentially followed by another upward wave aiming for 163.30. This forecast is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line positioned above zero but pointing downwards, suggesting upcoming corrections.

The pair completed an upward movement to 161.26, followed by a correction to 160.26. Currently, it has surged to 160.88, forming a consolidation range. Breaking above this range could lead to a rise towards 161.30. Conversely, a downward break might lead to a correction to at least 160.11 before another potential rise to 161.30. The Stochastic oscillator indicates that the signal line, currently above 50, is poised to drop to 20, reflecting potential short-term declines before further gains.

Market outlook

As investors navigate these fluctuations, the broader focus remains on global central bank policies, particularly any shifts by the BoJ or the Fed that could influence the USD/JPY trajectory. The upcoming economic releases and central bank updates will be crucial in shaping market dynamics and the yen’s valuation against the dollar.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Currency Speculator raised their bets for Canadian & Australian Dollars

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Canadian & Australian Dollars

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (25,519 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (17,980 contracts), the Mexican Peso (7,552 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (6,313 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,333 contracts) and with Bitcoin (99 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-26,147 contracts), the EuroFX (-16,382 contracts), the British Pound (-3,573 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-2,563 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-73 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

COT Currency Roundup:

The Canadian dollar speculative position jumped by over +25,000 contracts this week but this was following three straight weeks of declines that had brought the overall position to an all-time record low level. The CAD position has fallen for 13 out of the past 17 weeks and dropped to a record bearish level on June 18th at a total of -147,931 contracts. This week’s speculator position settled at a total of -122,412 contracts. Helping keep the pressure on the Canadian dollar (also called the loonie) recently was the Bank of Canada’s decision to lower their interest rate on June 5th to 4.75 percent from the previous 5 percent. With inflation subsiding in the Canadian economy, there is speculation that interest rates will come down as well and in turn, dampen the perceived attractiveness of the loonie versus other major currencies.

The Japanese yen speculator contracts continued to drop this week and have fallen for three straight weeks. The yen speculative positioning has also declined in 13 out of the last 20 weeks as the overall bearish position has now been above -100,000 contracts for twenty consecutive weeks. The US Dollar/Japanese yen exchange rate continues to see Dollar strength (vs the yen) as the USDJPY currency pair touched above the 161.00 level this week – marking the highest level for the USD since the late-1980s.

The euro currency contracts flipped back into negative territory this week and are in a small bearish position for the first time since April 30th. The euro speculator bets have declined for three straight weeks and are standing at a total of -8,431 contracts this week. The euro exchange rate versus the US Dollar (EURUSD currency pair) has had a very subdued year so far with a fluctuation between approximately 1.0650 and 1.1000 since the beginning of January. This week the EURUSD closed at 1.0752.

The Australian dollar speculator position sharply rose for a second straight week this week with a gain of +17,980 contracts following last week’s +23,129 contract rise. The Aussie spec position has seen a marked improvement since hitting an all-time low on March 19th at -107,538 contracts with this week’s standing coming in at -23,676 contracts. This is the least bearish level since June 29th of 2021, almost exactly three years ago.

The large speculative US Dollar Index positions dipped very slightly this week by just -73 contracts. However, the Dollar Index speculative position has been on quite a run with gains in the previous eleven straight weeks. This improved sentiment brought the spec position from out of bearish territory to the highest level since December of 2023 above +17,000 contracts and near where the speculator position currently sits at +17,522 contracts. The Dollar Index price has also been on the upswing with gains in four straight weeks and closed out this week at the 105.50 level.

Finally, the large speculative New Zealand Dollar currency positions gained this week by over +6,000 net contracts. The NZD net positions have now increased for six consecutive weeks – adding a total of +37,842 contracts to the net position in that time. This improvement has taken the NZD spec contracts to the most bullish level in the past three hundred and twenty-three weeks, dating back to April 17th of 2018.


Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Australian & New Zealand Dollars

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (100 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (82 percent), the Mexican Peso (60 percent) and Bitcoin (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (4 percent), the Canadian Dollar (14 percent), the EuroFX (17 percent), the Brazilian Real (18 percent) and the Swiss Franc (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (41.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (41.6 percent)
EuroFX (16.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (23.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (82.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (84.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (3.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (20.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (19.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (78.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (100.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (86.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (59.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (56.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (18.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (20.8 percent)
Bitcoin (57.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (55.5 percent)


New Zealand Dollar & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (79 percent) and the Australian Dollar (64 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (43 percent), the US Dollar Index (32 percent) and the Brazilian Real (18 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Mexican Peso (-27 percent), Canadian Dollar (-22 percent) and the EuroFX (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (32.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (33.6 percent)
EuroFX (-10.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (1.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (42.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (46.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-29.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-8.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (10.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (7.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-22.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-41.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (63.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (27.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (79.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (65.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (-27.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-30.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (18.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (20.2 percent)
Bitcoin (-6.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (0.9 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,522 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -73 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:74.014.68.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.459.54.6
– Net Position:17,522-19,3651,843
– Gross Longs:31,9476,3043,848
– Gross Shorts:14,42525,6692,005
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.2 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.459.832.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:32.2-32.85.7

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,382 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,951 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.760.111.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.061.68.2
– Net Position:-8,431-9,76718,198
– Gross Longs:167,370390,83771,392
– Gross Shorts:175,801400,60453,194
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.785.511.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.910.7-6.7

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 44,048 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,621 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.433.513.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.255.113.1
– Net Position:44,048-45,026978
– Gross Longs:102,54769,49728,209
– Gross Shorts:58,499114,52327,231
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.520.564.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:42.5-40.216.2

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -173,900 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -26,147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -147,753 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.276.211.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:61.322.813.5
– Net Position:-173,900181,858-7,958
– Gross Longs:34,576259,29237,891
– Gross Shorts:208,47677,43445,849
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.8100.057.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.929.5-2.7

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -35,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.780.711.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.422.127.9
– Net Position:-35,05749,331-14,274
– Gross Longs:6,50667,9699,253
– Gross Shorts:41,56318,63823,527
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.6 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.184.912.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.8-4.1-16.4

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -122,412 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 25,519 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -147,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.076.910.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:53.931.511.8
– Net Position:-122,412126,330-3,918
– Gross Longs:27,790214,10729,063
– Gross Shorts:150,20287,77732,981
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.585.818.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.321.4-16.7

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -23,676 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 17,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.745.615.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.834.912.7
– Net Position:-23,67619,3434,333
– Gross Longs:64,62082,54927,370
– Gross Shorts:88,29663,20623,037
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.01.570.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:63.8-58.011.7

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 26,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,329 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:72.317.87.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.263.46.0
– Net Position:26,642-27,567925
– Gross Longs:43,71110,7794,540
– Gross Shorts:17,06938,3463,615
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.3 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.071.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:79.0-76.626.3

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 57,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,254 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.047.42.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.481.72.2
– Net Position:57,806-58,9631,157
– Gross Longs:84,31481,6675,020
– Gross Shorts:26,508140,6303,863
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.6 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.840.818.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.127.5-15.8

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -22,320 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,563 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,757 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.556.32.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:61.432.23.3
– Net Position:-22,32023,477-1,157
– Gross Longs:37,62254,9452,107
– Gross Shorts:59,94231,4683,264
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.083.723.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.0-16.3-10.9

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -624 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 99 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -723 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:73.33.75.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:75.32.93.7
– Net Position:-624241383
– Gross Longs:22,1031,1211,499
– Gross Shorts:22,7278801,116
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.3 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.070.821.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.716.8-4.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

EUR/USD continues to struggle amid US inflation concerns

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD is on a downward trajectory on Friday, hovering around 1.0686 after a short-lived pause. The dollar experienced a temporary dip due to mixed American economic indicators and market anticipation ahead of the critical Core PCE inflation report, a significant factor in Federal Reserve decision-making.

Yesterday’s data showed a larger-than-expected decrease in US unemployment claims and a modest rise in Durable Goods Orders for May, although Core PCE dipped. The final GDP figures for Q1 2024 were slightly adjusted upward, showing the US economy grew by 1.4% compared to the previously estimated 1.3%, in contrast to the 3.4% growth seen in Q4 2023.

US Treasury yields also saw a minor decline, contributing to the dollar’s brief retreat. However, market dynamics are shifting as focus intensifies on today’s economic releases, including the Core PCE data, personal income and expenditures, and the University of Michigan’s May consumer sentiment index.

EUR/USD technical analysis

The EUR/USD has completed a downward movement to 1.0666 and corrected up to 1.0715. Currently, the market is forming another downward wave, targeting 1.0655. Should this level be reached, a rebound to 1.0690 is possible before continuing the downward trend towards at least 1.0577. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which remains below zero with a firm downward trajectory.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD is consolidating around 1.0690. A downward breakout could lead to a continuation of the decline to 1.0655. Subsequently, a corrective move to 1.0690 may occur before a further drop to 1.0640. The Stochastic oscillator, hovering near 20, suggests potential for further declines before a rebound to 80 could happen, indicating volatile short-term movements.

Market outlook

Investors are advised to closely monitor the upcoming US economic data, which will likely influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and impact EUR/USD movements. The currency pair remains sensitive to shifts in US economic indicators and Federal Reserve signals regarding interest rates.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Yen under pressure as USD/JPY hits new highs since 1986

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair soared to 160.34 on Thursday, reaching levels not seen since 1986, as market participants increasingly anticipate potential interventions from Japanese authorities. Despite repeated verbal assurances, the Japanese government has not taken concrete financial measures, leaving the yen vulnerable.

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated that the government stands ready to counteract sudden and undesirable fluctuations in the yen’s value, highlighting its preparedness to engage in market operations if necessary. However, when and how these interventions might occur remains uncertain, adding to the yen’s woes.

A significant factor in the yen’s ongoing decline is the stark contrast in interest rates between the Bank of Japan, which maintains a rate close to zero, and the Federal Reserve. This disparity has been a primary driver of the yen’s weakness, with the currency losing approximately 2% against the dollar in June alone, culminating in a 14% decline over the year.

USD/JPY technical analysis

The USD/JPY has broken through the critical 160.00 level, reaching up to 160.85. The market is currently retracing to test the 160.00 level from above. Should this level hold, we anticipate further growth towards 161.30, potentially extending the bullish trend to 163.30. This bullish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, which shows the signal line well above zero, indicating strong upward momentum.

On the H1 chart, after reaching 160.85, the pair is undergoing a correction towards 160.00. Completion of this correction could pave the way for another ascent to 161.30. This view is technically reinforced by the Stochastic oscillator, which is currently below 20 and poised for a rebound towards 80, suggesting a potential resurgence in buying pressure.

Market outlook

As the discrepancy between US and Japanese monetary policies continues to influence the USD/JPY, traders should remain alert to any signs of actual intervention by Japanese authorities. Such intervention could significantly impact market dynamics, potentially stalling or reversing the yen’s current depreciation trend.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.