Forex and Currency News

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 26

EUR/USD poised to renew two-month highs as buying momentum builds

The EUR/USD pair is hovering around 1.0503, extending its rally since midweek. The major currency pair has climbed to a two-month high, with market sentiment favouring further gains.

Key drivers behind EUR/USD’s rise

A decline in US Treasury bond yields has weighed on the US dollar, following a series of weaker-than-expected US economic reports and dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials.

Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, stated that he does not expect the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index to be as concerning as the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. As a key inflation measure for the Federal Reserve, the Core PCE significantly influences monetary policy expectations.

Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned of stagflation risks and the potential challenges in setting future policy.

The latest US jobless claims data further raised concerns, showing an increase to 219,000 from the previous 213,000, exceeding the forecast of 214,000.

In the eurozone, the euro could see further upside if the German election outcome triggers additional short-covering in EUR/USD.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has completed a growth wave to 1.0470, forming a consolidation range around this level. The market has since broken higher, paving the way for further gains towards 1.0544. A correction towards 1.0385 may follow after reaching this level. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing upwards, indicating continued bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the pair executed a growth wave to 1.0470, followed by a narrow consolidation range around this level. The likelihood of an upward breakout towards 1.0520 remains high. After reaching this level, a correction to 1.0470 could occur before the growth wave resumes towards 1.0544. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook, with its signal line above 80 and trending towards 20, suggesting a possible pullback before further gains.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains in an uptrend, supported by weakening US Treasury yields and a cautious Fed outlook. If bullish momentum continues, the pair may extend gains towards 1.0544. However, a corrective move could follow before further upside. The outcome of the German election could also influence short-term price action, potentially driving additional volatility.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex and Currency News Opinions

20 Feb

USD/JPY hits two-month low as demand for safe-haven yen surges

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair has fallen to a two-month low, trading near 150.07, as geopolitical and trade uncertainties drive investors towards the safe-haven yen.

Key factors behind JPY strength

The yen’s rise is largely due to growing global risk aversion. Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, sparking fresh concerns about a global trade war.

Additionally, the market is reacting to Trump’s foreign policy statements, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has further intensified the demand for safe-haven assets, including the yen.

Domestically, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise interest rates this year, providing fundamental support for the yen. However, uncertainty remains as to whether the BoJ will act in March or delay its decision.

Investors are now awaiting inflation data from Japan, which could provide more clarity on the central bank’s next move.

USD/JPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has reached its local downside target at 150.22. A consolidation range is expected to form at these lows. If the pair breaks upwards from this range, a corrective move towards 153.45 could begin. However, after completing this correction, a fifth wave of decline may develop, targeting 148.11. The MACD indicator confirms this outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and pointing strongly downward, indicating bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY completed a downward wave to 150.22 and is currently consolidating above this level. If the price breaks upwards, the first corrective wave could extend to 151.82. After reaching this level, a potential pullback to 150.98 may follow before the broader trend resumes. The Stochastic oscillator also supports this view, with its signal line below 20, preparing for a move towards 80, suggesting a short-term correction before further downside.

Conclusion

The Japanese yen continues to benefit from heightened global trade and geopolitical risks, along with expectations of further BoJ tightening. While a short-term correction towards 151.82 is possible, the overall trend remains bearish, with downside targets at 150.22 and potentially 148.11. Market focus will remain on Japan’s inflation data and further developments in US trade policy, both of which could shape the yen’s next major move.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

16 Feb

Japanese Yen Speculators continue to sharply boost their bullish positions

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 11th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (35,847 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (9,724 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (9,610 contracts), the British Pound (8,155 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,588 contracts), the Swiss Franc (3,513 contracts), the Brazilian Real (838 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (757 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-5,811 contracts), Bitcoin (-1,153 contracts) and with the New Zealand Dollar (-246 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Japanese Yen Speculators continue to raise the bullish position

Japanese 10-Year Bond Yields

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week, the story continues to be the continued push higher in bullish bets for the Japanese yen speculators.

Large speculative yen positions surged higher by +35,847 contracts and rose for a fourth consecutive week this week. The JPY position has now jumped by a total of +84,026 contracts over just the past four weeks. These gains have boosted the overall net bullish position to a total of +54,615 contracts this week and marks the most bullish level for the yen bets since October 1st, a span of 20 weeks.

Helping out the yen speculative position is the recent rate hike by the Bank of Japan in January from 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent. The yields on the Japanese 10-year bonds (image above) have also been spiking higher as well in recent weeks with the yields approaching 1.40 percent and reaching the highest levels in fifteen years (since 2010).

The yen exchange rate, despite the improving sentiment by the speculators and rising bond yields, remains near the bottom of its range from the past few years. The yen fell this week versus the US Dollar following four weeks of gains. The USDJPY currency pair trades near the 152.00 currently after hitting support right around the 151.00 early in the week. The pair did reverse lower after hitting resistance when challenging the 154.00 level in the middle of the week and ended at 152.82.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

On the downside, the EuroFX (4 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Canadian Dollar (20 percent) and the Swiss Franc (22 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (38.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (36.8 percent)
EuroFX (4.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (34.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (31.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (95.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (81.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (22.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (20.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (16.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (29.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (22.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (6.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (6.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (36.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (35.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.3 percent)
Bitcoin (43.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (68.4 percent)

Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (25 percent) and the Brazilian Real (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (17 percent), the Canadian Dollar (11 percent) and the Australian Dollar (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the trends data.

The Swiss Franc (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-11 percent), Mexican Peso (-2 percent) and Bitcoin (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (17.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (16.7 percent)
EuroFX (2.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-10.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-13.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (25.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (6.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-12.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-28.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (11.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (7.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-5.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-1.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-3.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-2.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-3.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (25.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (19.9 percent)
Bitcoin (-1.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (20.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,296 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,539 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.8	21.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	63.3	6.2
– Net Position:	15,296	-16,423	1,127
– Gross Longs:	26,261	8,459	3,546
– Gross Shorts:	10,965	24,882	2,419
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	61.7	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.5	-16.1	-2.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -64,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,811 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,614 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	56.6	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.9	50.2	8.3
– Net Position:	-64,425	39,974	24,451
– Gross Longs:	165,594	352,514	76,243
– Gross Shorts:	230,019	312,540	51,792
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.2	94.8	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-3.8	13.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,323 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	50.5	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	42.6	18.1
– Net Position:	-3,168	16,480	-13,312
– Gross Longs:	69,087	105,189	24,316
– Gross Shorts:	72,255	88,709	37,628
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.7	67.9	34.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	12.2	-14.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 54,615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 35,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.7	27.0	18.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	52.0	13.3
– Net Position:	54,615	-68,154	13,539
– Gross Longs:	144,158	73,890	49,809
– Gross Shorts:	89,543	142,044	36,270
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.4	3.4	96.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.2	-28.6	35.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	84.1	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	29.3	25.3
– Net Position:	-38,745	53,757	-15,012
– Gross Longs:	5,553	82,536	9,859
– Gross Shorts:	44,298	28,779	24,871
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.4	87.1	15.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	9.2	1.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -150,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	84.2	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.6	34.5	11.3
– Net Position:	-150,834	162,597	-11,763
– Gross Longs:	17,911	275,360	25,075
– Gross Shorts:	168,745	112,763	36,838
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.4	83.1	9.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-10.9	4.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -65,585 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,724 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,309 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	63.2	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.0	27.3	16.2
– Net Position:	-65,585	70,444	-4,859
– Gross Longs:	40,368	123,991	26,941
– Gross Shorts:	105,953	53,547	31,800
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.8	71.9	36.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-4.8	5.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -246 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,090 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	82.1	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.5	23.2	7.1
– Net Position:	-49,336	51,398	-2,062
– Gross Longs:	11,218	71,567	4,103
– Gross Shorts:	60,554	20,169	6,165
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.2	93.5	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	-0.1	14.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,262 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.3	54.1	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	63.3	4.0
– Net Position:	15,850	-13,270	-2,580
– Gross Longs:	59,388	77,683	3,229
– Gross Shorts:	43,538	90,953	5,809
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	67.4	8.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	2.4	0.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 838 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 242 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.5	31.0	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.0	33.0	3.4
– Net Position:	1,080	-1,437	357
– Gross Longs:	41,738	22,118	2,795
– Gross Shorts:	40,658	23,555	2,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	47.9	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.3	-25.7	4.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,153 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.3	5.6	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.5	4.6	4.2
– Net Position:	-367	307	60
– Gross Longs:	26,802	1,834	1,447
– Gross Shorts:	27,169	1,527	1,387
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.3	71.1	14.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	8.8	-22.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

14 Feb

EUR/USD significantly rises as risks diminish

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD climbed to 1.0453 on Friday, reaching a two-week high and maintaining stability.

Key drivers behind EUR/USD movement

The euro’s gains accelerated after US President Donald Trump signed a memorandum to review retaliatory duties without immediately imposing new tariffs. This decision eased investor concerns, reducing fears of an aggressive US response that could have added to inflationary pressures. With no immediate trade retaliations, markets view inflation risks as stabilising, reducing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Additionally, geopolitical tensions appear to be easing, lowering the risk premium in the currency market and further supporting EUR/USD.

However, doubts remain regarding the monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). While the Fed continues to be cautious, showing little urgency to cut interest rates, the ECB is actively considering rate cuts. This policy mismatch is expected to weigh on the euro in the long term.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD extended its growth wave towards 1.0466 before forming a consolidation range below this level. The pair has now broken downward from this range, opening the potential for a decline towards 1.0372. Once this target is reached, a corrective move towards 1.0416 is likely. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line at high levels, suggesting an imminent pullback to lower lows.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD completed its growth wave to 1.0466 and is now consolidating in a narrow range. A downward breakout is expected, initially targeting 1.0420, followed by a potential correction towards 1.0444. In the longer term, another downward wave will likely develop, targeting 1.0394 and extending towards 1.0372. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this bearish outlook, with its signal line positioned below 50 and trending towards 20, indicating growing downside pressure.

Conclusion

While EUR/USD has gained on reduced trade war risks and stabilising inflation fears, the pair is now facing a short-term correction. The monetary policy divergence between the Fed and ECB remains a key factor that could limit further upside for the euro. Technically, a pullback towards 1.0372 is likely in the short term, with potential corrective bounces towards 1.0416 and 1.0444 before the next downward wave. Market participants will continue monitoring US trade policy updates and Fed rate expectations for further direction.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 Feb

The pound’s rally stalls as investors await fresh economic data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

GBP/USD is consolidating around 1.2447 on Wednesday as traders hold back, awaiting key UK economic data releases later this week.

Key factors influencing GBP/USD

Earlier this week, the British pound faced pressure after Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann shifted to a more dovish stance. She stated that weak domestic demand reduces inflation risks, marking a notable change from her previously hawkish position.

Mann now believes consumer spending is slowing, limiting businesses’ ability to raise prices, and contributing to a faster-than-expected decline in inflationary pressures.

The BoE expects inflation to rise to 3.7% by the end of 2025, up from 2.5% in December 2024. Meanwhile, UK GDP growth forecasts have been lowered to 0.75% for 2025, down from the earlier estimate of 1.5%.

Investors are now awaiting key UK macroeconomic data, including:

December GDP estimate

Preliminary Q4 2024 economic growth data

End-of-year industrial production figures

Externally, the pound is also under pressure from a stronger US dollar. However, compared to other major currencies, GBP remains relatively stable.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD declined to 1.2332, followed by a correction to 1.2458. After reaching this level, a new downside wave is expected towards 1.2279. A narrow consolidation range is likely to form around this level. If the price breaks below this range, the next targets will be 1.2100 and 1.2020, signalling a continued bearish trend. The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and pointing downward, indicating a continuation of the downtrend.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD completed a correction to 1.2458. The market is now expected to resume its downward movement towards 1.2279. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 80 and trending sharply downwards towards 20, suggesting increasing bearish momentum.

Conclusion

GBP/USD is in a consolidation phase, with market participants awaiting key UK economic data. Weakening domestic demand and shifting expectations regarding the Bank of England’s (BOE) policy are weighing on the pound, while external pressure from a stronger USD adds to its downside risks. Technically, further declines are expected towards 1.2279, with the potential for deeper losses to 1.2100 and 1.2020 if the economic data disappoints. Market focus remains on upcoming UK macroeconomic releases, which will determine the next significant move for GBP/USD.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Feb

Yen’s rally stalls but may resume soon

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY is consolidating near 151.96 after a temporary pause in the yen’s recent strength.

Key market factors

At the beginning of the week, the Japanese yen weakened against the US dollar as the greenback reacted to fresh US trade tariffs.

US President Donald Trump recently signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports, with no exemptions for partner countries. This decision has triggered fears of a global trade war, which could, in turn, limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates further.

Despite this, the yen appreciated by 2% against the USD last week, driven by increasing market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue its monetary tightening cycle.

BoJ policymaker Naoki Tamura reinforced this view last Thursday by suggesting that the central bank should move towards an interest rate of at least 1% in the second half of fiscal 2025. Recent Japanese economic data supports this hawkish stance, with rising wages and household spending providing a solid foundation for further rate hikes.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY formed a consolidation range around 151.90 after a downward move. A break below this range is expected, targeting 148.80, with a potential continuation to 148.38. This level serves as a local target. Once the wave completes, a corrective move towards 151.90 is possible before the broader downtrend resumes, aiming for 145.50. The MACD indicator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below zero and sharply downwards, suggesting ongoing bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market is developing a downward wave towards 148.40, with consolidation around 151.90. A downside breakout would confirm the continuation of the second phase of the decline. After reaching 148.40, a corrective move back to 151.90 could materialise. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line below 80 and sharply downward, indicating bearish pressure.

Conclusion

The Japanese yen’s rally has paused, but further gains remain likely, supported by expectations of continued BoJ tightening. Technical indicators suggest that USD/JPY may break lower towards 148.40, with further downside potential towards 145.50. The yen’s trajectory will depend on BoJ policy signals and further developments in US trade policy, particularly how global markets respond to Trump’s tariffs.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Feb

Japanese Yen Speculators push yen bets into new bullish position

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 4th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (38,736 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (19,727 contracts), the British Pound (10,349 contracts), the EuroFX (7,990 contracts), the Mexican Peso (7,038 contracts), the Swiss Franc (742 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (339 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-12,843 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-3,478 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,059 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-379 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Japanese Yen Speculators push yen bets into new bullish position

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the renewal in bullish bets for the Japanese yen speculators. Large speculative yen positions gained for a third consecutive week this week and has risen by a total of +48,179 contracts over these past three weeks.

This renewed sentiment for the yen has pushed the net position (currently at +18,768 contracts) to the most positive level in the past eight weeks. The yen speculator bets had recently spent four weeks in bullish territory in December before dropping back into negative territory in January.

The yen has had extremely bearish speculator positioning over the past four years (basically since March of 2021) and very often had over -100,000 net speculator weekly contracts as policy divergences between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan caused the yen exchange rate to drop to multi-decade lows versus the American currency.

The BOJ recently raised their interest rate by 25 basis points in January from 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent as inflation is poised to pickup, according to the BOJ. This increase moved the rate to the highest level since 2008, underscoring the rare move.

The yen exchange rate, overall, has continued to trend near the bottom of its range from the past few years but has managed to gain versus the US Dollar for the past four weeks in a row. The USDJPY currency pair trades at 151.42 to end the week after hitting support right below 159.00 in late-January. Since then, the USDJPY has seen yen strength with a break below support at 155.00 and currently trades around a major support/resistance level around 152.00 that could determine the short-term direction of the pair.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (81 percent) and the Bitcoin (68 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (52 percent), US Dollar Index (37 percent) and the Mexican Peso (35 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (6 percent), the EuroFX (6 percent), the Swiss Franc (15 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (36.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (36.1 percent)
EuroFX (6.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (31.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (81.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (73.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (13.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (16.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (21.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (22.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (25.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (6.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (35.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (31.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (52.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (15.6 percent)
Bitcoin (68.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (76.7 percent)

Brazilian Real & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (20 percent) and the Bitcoin (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (17 percent), the Japanese Yen (7 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Swiss Franc (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-14 percent), Australian Dollar (-5 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (16.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (17.7 percent)
EuroFX (3.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-0.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-13.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-19.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (6.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-2.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-28.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-43.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (7.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-5.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-7.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-3.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-5.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-3.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-4.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (19.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-16.7 percent)
Bitcoin (20.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (21.7 percent)