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Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen bets into small bullish level

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (24,967 contracts) with the New Zealand Dollar (1,073 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (726 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-10,375 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-9,847 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-5,344 contracts), the British Pound (-2,308 contracts), the EuroFX (-1,480 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,418 contracts), Bitcoin (-399 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-255 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen bets into small bullish level

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the recent bullish moves in the Japanese yen speculator position.

The Japanese yen speculator positions rose this week by almost +25,000 contracts following a similar gain by +24,235 contracts last week and by +18,034 contracts two weeks ago. Yen positions have now increased by a total of +67,236 contracts over these past three weeks which has totally erased the bearish net positioning of the prior five weeks. The positive sentiment by the speculators has pushed the overall net position into a small bullish level of +2,334 contracts which is the first bullish standing since October 22nd.

Over the year, the yen speculator positions have been highly bearish with a weekly average of -75,251 contracts for 2024 so far. The yen positioning fell as low as -184,223 contracts on July 2nd but speculators bearish bets have eased off in the second half of the year and specs did have an eleven-week streak of bullish positions from August to October. The speculator strength score (the percent of current speculator’s level compared to the past 3-years) is a strong 75 percent at the moment.

The yen exchange rate has been on an extremely weak trajectory throughout 2024 as well with the Japanese currency falling to multi-decade lows multiple times. Currently, the yen is still within 8 percent of the latest low with the USDJPY currency pair trading around 150.00.

The yen seems to be at a crossroads at the moment with a lot of money on the sidelines that could take this small bullish position in either direction. The overall direction of the US Dollar will be a major factor in whether this might be near the yen bottom or just another step in a weaker Japanese currency.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (91 percent) and the Japanese Yen (75 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the EuroFX (0 percent), the US Dollar Index (0 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (2 percent), Bitcoin (16 percent), the Canadian Dollar (17 percent) and the Swiss Franc (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.5 percent)
EuroFX (0.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (44.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (45.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (74.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (64.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (17.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (20.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (16.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (18.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (91.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (98.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (1.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (30.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (30.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (35.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (44.9 percent)
Bitcoin (16.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (25.2 percent)

Bitcoin tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The New Zealand Dollar (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-25 percent), Swiss Franc (-17 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-8.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.5 percent)
EuroFX (-11.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-29.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-24.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-28.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-4.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-17.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-27.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-8.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-14.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-4.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (8.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-41.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-43.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (-10.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-11.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-13.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-2.3 percent)
Bitcoin (1.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (14.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,054 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,799 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.4	25.5	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.5	20.7	7.3
– Net Position:	-3,054	1,801	1,253
– Gross Longs:	21,903	9,563	4,009
– Gross Shorts:	24,957	7,762	2,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.6	36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	4.8	16.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -57,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,009 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	59.4	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	54.3	8.1
– Net Position:	-57,489	34,476	23,013
– Gross Longs:	167,693	401,120	77,569
– Gross Shorts:	225,182	366,644	54,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	22.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	12.6	-12.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,326 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,308 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,634 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.3	46.8	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	50.5	13.8
– Net Position:	19,326	-8,995	-10,331
– Gross Longs:	98,056	114,068	23,219
– Gross Shorts:	78,730	123,063	33,550
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	57.8	40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.8	28.7	-35.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,334 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,967 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,633 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.5	43.3	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	43.3	16.2
– Net Position:	2,334	-164	-2,170
– Gross Longs:	93,622	111,171	39,431
– Gross Shorts:	91,288	111,335	41,601
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.6	28.4	58.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	3.8	-0.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -41,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,418 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,676 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	83.0	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.9	20.4	25.6
– Net Position:	-41,094	53,351	-12,257
– Gross Longs:	4,874	70,719	9,565
– Gross Shorts:	45,968	17,368	21,822
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	4.1 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.6	86.4	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.1	27.6	-39.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -159,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,344 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -154,002 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	80.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.8	29.6	11.6
– Net Position:	-159,346	165,505	-6,159
– Gross Longs:	21,696	261,571	31,609
– Gross Shorts:	181,042	96,066	37,768
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	84.3	12.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	6.9	5.6

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,776 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.6	37.4	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	49.1	13.0
– Net Position:	21,401	-22,286	885
– Gross Longs:	86,699	71,206	25,601
– Gross Shorts:	65,298	93,492	24,716
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.5	16.7	52.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	11.5	-33.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	66.5	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.5	34.4	7.3
– Net Position:	-23,308	25,730	-2,422
– Gross Longs:	21,213	53,338	3,446
– Gross Shorts:	44,521	27,608	5,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.9	96.3	22.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.7	45.1	-41.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 4,184 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,458 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.5	52.5	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	53.8	4.2
– Net Position:	4,184	-1,838	-2,346
– Gross Longs:	55,114	77,150	3,777
– Gross Shorts:	50,930	78,988	6,123
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.9	73.2	9.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	9.8	3.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -17,414 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.6	53.5	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.4	22.7	5.7
– Net Position:	-17,414	18,647	-1,233
– Gross Longs:	25,853	32,419	2,213
– Gross Shorts:	43,267	13,772	3,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.6	66.7	13.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	14.6	-5.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,196 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.7	4.4	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.0	1.6	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,595	1,040	555
– Gross Longs:	30,625	1,615	1,600
– Gross Shorts:	32,220	575	1,045
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	2.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	89.4	51.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.1	-1.8	1.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

05 Dec

GBP/USD Continues its Rally: Third Day of Buying

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair has risen to 1.2711, marking the third day of sustained buyer activity. This upward movement comes from comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who hinted at potential interest rate cuts in 2025 if the consumer price index (CPI) continues its downward trajectory.

In a recent interview, Governor Bailey discussed the possibility of a decisive easing in monetary policy, suggesting a total reduction of 100 basis points in 2025, which could bring the interest rate down to as low as 3.75% per annum. While this outlook is seen as positive, investors are currently more focused on the short term, with expectations set for the BoE’s rate to remain unchanged in December 2024. Any substantial rate adjustments are anticipated to be implemented next year.

Governor Bailey also noted that UK inflation is declining more rapidly than anticipated, with current consumer prices nearly 1% below previous forecasts. This contrasts with official statistics, which recorded a CPI rise from 1.7% in September to 2.3% in October, suggesting that inflation pressures are not fully alleviated yet.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD

H4 chart: the GBP/USD is currently on an upward trend, targeting 1.2767. Once this level is reached, a retracement to 1.2628 is expected, testing it from above before potentially initiating another growth phase towards 1.2815, with prospects of extending to 1.2960. The MACD indicator supports this bullish scenario, with its signal line positioned above zero and trending upwards.

H1 chart: the pair has found support at 1.2628 and is building a growth structure towards 1.2767. Once achieving this level, a corrective phase to 1.2628 may ensue. This analysis is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, which shows the signal line moving upwards from above 50 towards 80, indicating continued upward momentum in the near term.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Dec

Australian Dollar Hits Four-Month Low Amid Weak GDP Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Australian dollar fell to a four-month low of 0.6450 against the US dollar on Wednesday, following disappointing GDP data that heightened expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

The latest GDP figures revealed that Australia’s economy expanded by only 0.3% quarter-over-quarter in Q3, falling short of the anticipated 0.4% growth. Year-on-year, the growth rate was just 0.8%, significantly below the expected 1.0%. These figures have raised concerns on trading floors about the possible onset of a recession.

Despite the weak GDP report, expectations for the RBA’s upcoming December meeting remain unchanged. The consensus is that the central bank will hold rates steady while continuing to assess economic conditions. However, market sentiment regarding the medium-term monetary policy has shifted slightly, with a 30% likelihood of an RBA rate cut by February. Investors are increasingly betting on the possibility of adjustments by May.

Externally, the Australian dollar is facing additional pressure from a stronger US dollar, which continues to attract investors seeking safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainties.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

H4 chart: the AUD/USD pair has reached the target of its recent decline at 0.6490 and is now forming a growth structure towards 0.6480. A broad consolidation range may develop around this level. If the price breaks above this range, a rise to 0.6555 is anticipated. This bullish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero but poised for an upward movement.

H1 chart: the market has nearly reached the primary target of the decline at 0.6490 and is expected to initiate a growth structure to 0.6485. A narrow consolidation range may form, and a breakout above this range could lead to an ascent towards 0.6555, followed by a potential retracement to 0.6480. Once this level is reached, another upward wave towards 0.6700 may be possible. The Stochastic oscillator supports this analysis, with its signal line currently below 20 but expected to climb sharply towards 80, indicating potential for upward momentum.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Dec

EURUSD gripped by French political turmoil

By ForexTime

EURUSD ↓ 1% MTD, lingering near key 1.05 level

French government faces no-confidence vote today

Mounting political uncertainty could hit euro

Over past year NFP triggered moves of ↑ 0.4% & ↓ 0.6%

Bloomberg FX model – EURUSD has 73% of trading within 1.0349 – 1.0641 over 1-week period

The French government is on the brink of collapse.

In July when France’s legislative election ended with a hung parliament outcome, we suggested months of political instability.

Although France unveiled a new government in September after almost 3-months of deadlock, it looks like things are back at square one.

The low down…

Earlier in the week, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier failed to secure an agreement with Marine Le Pen’s party on the budget.

This deadlock prompted opposition parties to table a motion of no-confidence against Barnier.

What next?

Today at 4 p.m. Paris time, a debate on a motion to topple the government is scheduled to take place with voting roughly three hours after.

If the current government is ousted with a no-confidence vote, this could throw France into political chaos until July 2025 when a new legislative election can take place.

More pain for EURUSD?

The EURUSD may sink due to political uncertainty, with prices keeping below the psychological 1.050 level.

Looking beyond the developments in France, the major currency pair could be influenced by Powell’s incoming speech and the US jobs report on Friday.

Note: Over the past 12 months, the US jobs report has triggered upside moves as much as 0.4% or declines of 0.6% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Investors will be seeking for any fresh clues on the Fed’s plans for December and beyond. Powell’s comments and Friday’s NFP could influence the USD and by default the EURUSD.

However, the political developments in France and ECB cut bets may set the tone for the EURUSD this week.

Note: Traders have fully priced in a 25-basis point ECB cut by December with another cut priced in by January 2025.

Looking at the technicals

The EURUSD is under pressure on the daily charts with prices trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near oversold levels.

Sustained below 1.0500 could see a decline back toward 1.042 and 1.0349 – the lower bound seen on the Bloomberg FX model.

Should prices push back above 1.0500, this could see an incline toward 1.0600 and 1.0641.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

02 Dec

AUD/USD Stabilises Amid US Dollar Pressures and Domestic Economic Strength

By RoboForex Analytical Department

On Monday, the AUD/USD pair remains stable around the 0.6450 mark. After benefiting from the US dollar’s weakness during the extended US holiday weekend, the currency pair faced new pressures following remarks by US President-elect Donald Trump. Trump’s threat to impose 100% trade tariffs on BRICS nations if they pursue a universal currency to replace the US dollar has sparked a renewed demand for safe-haven assets, bolstering the USD.

October’s retail sales figures exceeded expectations, supporting the Australian dollar, and reinforcing the market’s belief that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may not cut rates soon. RBA Governor Michele Bullock recently highlighted that core inflation remains elevated, which justifies continuing a restrictive monetary policy stance. The RBA believes it will take some time before inflation stabilises near its target.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

H4 chart: the AUD/USD is currently in the first phase of a correction wave, having achieved a local target at 0.6527. The market is now forming a decline structure towards 0.6466, and once this level is reached, a new growth phase will begin, aiming for 0.6542. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, which shows the signal line above zero and trending upwards, indicating potential for continued growth.

H1 chart: the pair has nearly reached the local growth target of 0.6527. A decline to 0.6470 is expected shortly, followed potentially by a rise to 0.6500 and then a drop to 0.6466. If this level is achieved, the market may prepare for another upward movement towards 0.6542. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line currently below 50 and expected to drop to 20, suggesting a forthcoming reversal and potential for growth.

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Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Nov

EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Major US Data Releases

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD remains stable at around 1.0483 as markets digest the implications of the latest FOMC minutes. The Federal Reserve signalled a potential pause in rate cuts if inflation reaccelerates but also indicated readiness to continue easing if economic indicators weaken.

Today promises heightened activity for EUR/USD due to a slew of US economic data releases. It is a significant day as the US will release its initial Q3 GDP estimate. After recording a 2.8% growth in Q2, market participants are keen to see if this momentum carried into the third quarter. Expectations suggest a robust period, potentially boosting the US dollar if the data exceeds forecasts.

Additionally, the US will unveil October’s figures for personal income and expenses, durable goods orders, and the core PCE price index. These data points could significantly influence the dollar’s trajectory, adding to today’s trading volatility.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

H4 chart: The EUR/USD appears to be challenging the upper boundary of its recent downward trend. Current technical analysis suggest a potential upward move towards 1.0580. After reaching this level, a corrective pullback to 1.0460 may occur before another upward wave targets 1.0700. This bullish EUR/USD forecast is supported by the MACD, which shows a positive divergence as it approaches the zero line from below.

H1 chart: The shorter-term H1 chart indicates that EUR/USD is on an upward trajectory towards 1.0580, with the currency consolidating above 1.0460. A breakout above this consolidation could validate the move towards 1.0580. Subsequently, a retracement to 1.0460 may set the stage for further advances. The Stochastic oscillator signals potential upward momentum, suggesting an increase in buying pressure.

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Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 Nov

NZD/USD Hits Yearly Low Amid US Dollar Strength

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The NZD/USD pair has experienced a significant decline, touching a low of 0.5841 and reaching a yearly trough of 0.5796. The primary pressure comes from a robust US dollar, bolstered by anticipations of a more stringent tariff regime under US President-elect Donald Trump. Speculations about Trump imposing an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese goods have particularly impacted the Kiwi, given China’s role as New Zealand’s largest trading partner.

The market pre-emptively reacts to potential US policy shifts, recalling Trump’s previous term characterised by aggressive trade policies. This has cast a long shadow over the NZD, influencing investor sentiment.

The upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting on Wednesday is crucial, with expectations leaning towards a 50-basis-point rate cut to 4.25% per annum. This expected move aligns with the RBNZ’s dovish stance from October and could sustain the downward pressure on the NZD.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD

H4 chart: the NZD/USD has completed a decline wave, reaching 0.5797, with a subsequent recovery phase targeting 0.5922 underway. After reaching this level, a potential pullback to 0.5860 could establish a consolidation zone around this marker. A break below this range might extend the decline to 0.5777, while an upward breach could pave the way to 0.5977.

H1 chart: the pair is forming an initial growth wave towards 0.5860. Following this target, a retraction to 0.5828 is likely. The Stochastic oscillator supports this currency forecast, indicating a possible downturn from elevated levels and enhancing the likelihood of continuing the downward trajectory.

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Financial News Forex and Currency News

25 Nov

EUR/USD Amid Slowing European Economy

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD encountered significant pressure, testing a low of 1.0331 before rebounding to 1.0476, as market concerns mount over the potential economic slowdown in Europe and aggressive rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).

Recent business surveys indicating an accelerated economic contraction in Germany and France have starkly dampened the euro’s outlook. Additionally, under the newly elected President Donald Trump’s administration, potential new trade duties from the US threaten to exacerbate Germany’s already fragile economic state. Trump’s protectionist stance could notably impact German industries, intensifying existing internal challenges.

Investors are bracing for a scenario where the ECB might implement rate reductions more swiftly than anticipated. At the same time, the Federal Reserve may hold steady, expanding the interest rate differential unfavourably against the euro.

This backdrop has led to heightened investor nervousness about the euro’s future, with further potential declines in EUR/USD not ruled out amidst ongoing uncertainties regarding the full pricing-in of these expectations.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

H4 chart: the EUR/USD has hit its projected low at 1.0331, subsequently initiating a rebound towards 1.0500. Upon reaching this level, a pullback to 1.0414 may occur. The market may form a consolidation range around 1.0414, with potential upward movements targeting 1.0570 and possibly extending to 1.0655. This EUR/USD outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which suggests an impending rise from below the zero level.

H1 chart: the pair is forming a rise to 1.0500, which is anticipated as an initial target. After this level, a corrective phase towards 1.0414 is expected, suggesting a test from above. The stochastic oscillator corroborates this view, indicating a readiness to descend from a mid-range position towards lower thresholds.

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24 Nov

USD Index Bets continue divergence, Speculators cut their Euro bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 19th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Japanese Yen

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (18,034 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (1,803 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (300 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-35,120 contracts), the British Pound (-15,735 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-6,778 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,179 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-4,377 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-1,177 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-401 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-286 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

USD Index Bets continue divergence, Speculators cut their Euro bets

Highlighting the COT currency’s data for the week was the continued divergence in the US Dollar Index price and the US Dollar Index speculator positioning.

The large speculative US Dollar Index positions decreased for a third straight week this week and for the eighth time out of the past ten weeks. This is a total decline of -22,923 contracts over the ten-week period and has brought the USD Index positioning to a new multi-year low dating back to March 3rd of 2021.

Despite this recent sentiment deficit, the US Dollar Index (DX) price has continued to go the opposite way of the speculators – which are usually trend-following and buying price on the way up while doing the opposite on the way down.

The DX rose by almost 1 percent this week and has now gained for three weeks in a row as well as for seven increases out of the past eight weeks. The DX broke through the 106.50-107.00 resistance level this week with a high above 108.00 before settling back to close the week at approximately 107.50. This is the highest weekly close since the fourth quarter of 2022. Next up, look for overhead resistance in the 109.00-110.00 areas if the bullish trend continues.

Euro bets drop sharply, exchange rate on the downswing

Euro currency bets dropped sharply by over -35,120 net contracts this week and pretty much erased the gains of the past two weeks (+14,216 contracts on Nov 12th and +28,651 contracts on Nov. 5th). Speculator positioning in the Euro has been volatile in the past few months but overall, bets have been going mostly bearish for the currency. Over the past eleven weeks, Euro net positions have in total dropped by -142,575 contracts and have taken the position from a total of +100,018 contracts on September 3rd to this week’s standing of -42,557 net contracts.

The Euro exchange rate has been taking it on the chin and has dropped by over 1 percent in each of the past three weeks. After ascending to a 2024-high in September at over 1.1200, the Euro has spiraled lower in quick work and closed this week at approximately 1.0420. This is over a 7 percent decrease in just two months. If the currency continues to slide through the 1.0400 resistance, we can look for the 1.0250 level and eventually the Euro could test parity at 1.00 to the US Dollar. The Euro last fell to parity and below in the second half of 2022 with the Euro dropping all the way to the 0.9602 level which marked the lowest level in over two decades.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (99 percent) leads the currency markets this week. The Japanese Yen (55 percent) and the British Pound (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent), the EuroFX (3 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (5 percent), the Canadian Dollar (5.7 percent) and Bitcoin (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.8 percent)
EuroFX (3.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (18.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (54.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (61.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (54.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (47.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (25.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (34.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (5.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (98.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (97.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (5.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (18.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (38.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (41.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (45.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (44.9 percent)
Bitcoin (5.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.1 percent)

Brazilian Real tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currencies and is currently the only positive mover in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-38 percent), EuroFX (-34 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-33 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-1.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-5.2 percent)
EuroFX (-34.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-26.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-23.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-16.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-33.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-48.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-29.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-19.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-42.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-50.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-1.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (10.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-37.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-26.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (-7.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-3.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (2.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (29.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-17.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-2.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,713 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -401 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.6	23.8	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.9	18.7	8.3
– Net Position:	-2,713	1,921	792
– Gross Longs:	22,613	8,883	3,891
– Gross Shorts:	25,326	6,962	3,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.9	31.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	-1.2	15.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,557 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -35,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	60.6	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	57.4	8.3
– Net Position:	-42,557	21,047	21,510
– Gross Longs:	154,305	399,002	76,465
– Gross Shorts:	196,862	377,955	54,955
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.3	96.1	19.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.4	35.6	-32.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 40,315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,050 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.0	36.5	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	54.1	13.3
– Net Position:	40,315	-39,066	-1,249
– Gross Longs:	101,713	80,547	28,148
– Gross Shorts:	61,398	119,613	29,397
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.2	45.8	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.7	27.4	-33.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -46,868 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,034 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,902 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	52.8	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.5	33.4	15.7
– Net Position:	-46,868	49,209	-2,341
– Gross Longs:	78,973	134,065	37,427
– Gross Shorts:	125,841	84,856	39,768
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	46.6	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.3	31.9	-8.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -37,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,694 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.9	84.0	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.7	20.4	29.7
– Net Position:	-37,071	52,622	-15,551
– Gross Longs:	4,036	69,499	9,009
– Gross Shorts:	41,107	16,877	24,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	4.1 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	85.3	5.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.6	41.5	-49.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -183,566 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -182,389 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	82.0	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.6	27.3	10.7
– Net Position:	-183,566	190,676	-7,110
– Gross Longs:	23,904	285,755	30,046
– Gross Shorts:	207,470	95,079	37,156
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.7	94.6	9.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.3	43.0	-29.6

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,795 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.7	35.8	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	50.7	15.8
– Net Position:	31,598	-27,106	-4,492
– Gross Longs:	86,703	64,987	24,189
– Gross Shorts:	55,105	92,093	28,681
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.7	13.8	38.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	13.8	-54.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,778 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	64.6	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.2	35.4	8.5
– Net Position:	-18,438	21,323	-2,885
– Gross Longs:	21,762	47,092	3,323
– Gross Shorts:	40,200	25,769	6,208
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.4	94.6	16.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.9	45.4	-64.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 14,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,179 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.5	50.0	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	57.9	4.7
– Net Position:	14,014	-11,007	-3,007
– Gross Longs:	60,642	69,581	3,539
– Gross Shorts:	46,628	80,588	6,546
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.3	63.6	6.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	8.1	-9.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -7,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,577 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.0	32.7	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.0	24.1	3.0
– Net Position:	-7,277	7,003	274
– Gross Longs:	43,898	26,555	2,703
– Gross Shorts:	51,175	19,552	2,429
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.2	55.8	22.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.6	-2.5	-0.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,798 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.6	4.7	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	80.7	1.5	2.5
– Net Position:	-2,084	1,294	790
– Gross Longs:	31,152	1,917	1,833
– Gross Shorts:	33,236	623	1,043
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	3.1 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.8	95.7	68.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.5	10.5	28.2

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COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

22 Nov

USD/JPY Awaits Potential Stimulus Impact

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair remains stable at approximately 154.30 amid global economic fluctuations and expectations of potential Japanese stimulus measures.

Japan’s latest inflation data for October revealed a decline to 2.3%, marking the lowest level in nine months and potentially easing pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) for immediate rate hikes. However, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has hinted at a possible rate increase in December due to the yen’s prolonged weakness.

Japan’s manufacturing sector contracted more than anticipated in November, while the service sector showed expansion, highlighting a mixed economic outlook.

Reports suggest the Japanese government may introduce a significant stimulus package worth 90 billion USD to mitigate the impact of inflation on households. While details remain undisclosed, the possibility of such measures has generated some optimism around the yen.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

H4 Chart: the USD/JPY is forming a consolidation pattern around 154.45. A downward breakout could lead to further movement towards 153.00, while an upward breakout might pave the way to 156.20, potentially extending to 157.60. The MACD indicator supports this USD/JPY outlook, with its signal line positioned above zero but trending downwards, suggesting the pair is approaching a critical decision point.

H1 Chart: a consolidation around 154.45, potentially extending to 154.88, sets the stage for possible corrective movements towards 153.00. A subsequent recovery could push the pair to 156.20, marking a new growth phase. The Stochastic oscillator, currently above 80, indicates overbought conditions, signalling a likely retraction to lower levels, aligning with the potential for a near-term correction.

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