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Currency Speculators push Aussie Bets Higher, Euro & GBP Bets fall this week

Open Interest Strength Levels show where current Open Futures Contracts are highest and lowest (higher interest can fuel trends and setup for more potential moves & vice versa) for currency markets.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 24th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (6,713 contracts) with the New Zealand Dollar (5,446 contracts), the Brazilian Real (2,012 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (1,752 contracts) also seeing gaining weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-17,624 contracts), the British Pound (-14,668 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,117 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-1,416 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-1,242 contracts), Bitcoin (-466 contracts) and with the Swiss Franc (-305 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Speculators push Aussie Bets Higher, Euro & GBP Bets fall this week

Highlighting the currency speculator positioning for last week through Tuesday was the continued bullishness for speculators in the Australian dollar. The New Zealand dollar speculator bets continued to improve despite being bearish while the Euro bets took a breather and the British pound speculator position went increasingly bearish.

First off, the Australian dollar speculator position rose this week for a 13th consecutive week, with speculator positions adding a total of +136,820 net contracts over that time period. This has taken the Australian dollar net position from a total of -84,176 contracts on November 25th to this week’s net position of 52,644 contracts. This is the best level for the Australian dollar net position since October 24th of 2017, a span of 435 weeks. The Australian dollar in the foreign exchange market has continued to rally since the beginning of the year and is up by almost 6.50 percent since the start of 2026. Since the AUD lows in February of last year, the Australian dollar has risen by over 16 percent against the US dollar. The Aussie has been able to hold above the major 0.7000 level and closed out the week above the 0.7100 exchange rate. The AUD has been having its highest weekly closes at the highest levels since early 2023.

The New Zealand dollar speculator position has been improving steadily, with weekly speculator bets improving in six out of the last eleven weeks for an eleven-week gain of 27,214 net contracts. These gains date back to December 9th when the net position totaled -56,781 net contracts, which was the all-time low or most bearish level in history for the NZD speculator positions. Since then, the bets have been improving and this week reached a -29,567 net contract level, the best level or least bearish standing of the past twenty weeks. In the spot price market, the NZD has been up in six out of the past seven weeks and is currently trading right around the major psychological level of 0.6000 threshold, which also coincides with the two hundred weekly moving average.

Euro speculator bets took a breather this week and fell for a second consecutive week. The Euro speculator positions have been mixed over the last ten weeks, with five weeks of falling speculator bets and five weeks of gaining speculator bets. Although the net change over the last ten weeks has been roughly a +12,000 net contracts. Overall, the speculator positioning for the Euro remains highly bullish with this week’s net position over +156,000 contracts. This marks the 13th consecutive week that the net position has been over +100,000 net contracts, and this is the 33rd out of the last 37 weeks that the net position has been over +100,000 net contracts. In the forex markets, the Euro closed over the 1.1820 level this week after seeing a small weekly gain. Continued overhead and major resistance resides at 1.2000, while there is support at the 1.1750 level, as well as the 1.1600 level below.

The British pound sterling saw its third week of strong bearish positioning and has now dropped by over -43,000 net contracts in the past three weeks. Previously, the British pound sterling had seen ten straight weeks of gains, so these last three weeks have cooled off that streak of bets. This week’s net position of negative -57,072 net contracts is the most bearish level of the past eleven weeks. Overall, the British pound sterling has been in bearish territory for 31 consecutive weeks dating back to July 2025. In the foreign exchange markets, the British pound sterling closed out the week at the 1.3480 level and has fallen for three out of the past four weeks. Currently, the bulls and the bears are battling it out around the 1.3500 area to see if this currency is gonna continue higher or take a breather and retreat lower. Since the beginning of 2025, the British pound has been up by approximately 11 percent against the US dollar in that time-frame.

The US dollar index bets dipped this week following four consecutive weeks of gains that had brought the US dollar index net position into a small bullish level last week. Last week’s pop up into the bullish level was the first time since June 2025 that the US dollar index had seen a bullish net contract position, a span of 36 weeks. This week’s dollar index speculator position dipped by over -2,100 contracts, bringing the overall net positioning to -1,789 net contracts. Essentially, this is a neutral position for speculator contracts and shows there is no dominant trend in where the speculators are leaning, with uncertainty as to whether we go up or down from here. In the Forex markets, the USD index had a small dip this week in price and is settling in and consolidating around the 97.50 exchange rate. The USD index has overhead resistance at the 98.00 level, while there is also strong support below as prices have bounced off the 96.50 level at least three times since June and have been unable to hold below that level for any amount of time.

Brazilian Real leads Currency Market Price Performance

This week’s five-day price performance was led by the Brazilian real, which rose by over one percent with a 1.03 percent gain on the week. The Swiss franc came in second with a 0.91 percent increase, followed by the Australian dollar, which rose by 0.50 percent on the week.

The New Zealand dollar was higher by 0.40 percent, followed by the Canadian dollar, which saw an uptick by 0.35 percent. The Euro was marginally higher at 0.32 percent.

On the downside, Bitcoin saw a -3.02 percent shortfall on the week. The Mexican peso was down by -0.62 percent, followed by the Japanese yen with a similar -0.61 percent decline. The US dollar index was lower by -0.11 percent, and the British pound was virtually unchanged with a small edge lower by -0.02 percent.

Over the past thirty days, the Australian dollar has been the standout performer with a 6.49 percent gain over that period. The Brazilian real has been up by 4.87 percent while the Swiss franc has been higher by 4.55 percent and the New Zealand dollar has also floated higher by 4.29 percent in the 30-day time-frame.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish, a 50 score is right down the middle of the past 3-Years) showed that the Canadian Dollar (100 percent) and the Australian Dollar (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (88 percent), Bitcoin (78 percent) and the Mexican Peso (67 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (15 percent) and the Swiss Franc (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are both in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (31 percent) and the US Dollar Index (39 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (39.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (45.0 percent)
EuroFX (88.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (95.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (15.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (21.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (53.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (54.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (17.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (18.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (99.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (95.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (31.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (24.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (66.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (67.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (66.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (63.0 percent)
Bitcoin (77.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (87.4 percent)

Australian Dollar & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (45 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. Bitcoin (23 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (22 percent) and the Japanese Yen (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The British Pound (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Mexican Peso (-12 percent) following next with a lower trend score.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (5.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (11.2 percent)
EuroFX (9.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (4.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-13.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-5.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (15.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (1.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (4.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-1.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (31.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (29.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (44.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (40.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (22.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (-12.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-14.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (13.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-7.6 percent)
Bitcoin (23.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (50.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,789 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 328 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.7	31.7	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.5	21.9	11.1
– Net Position:	-1,789	2,582	-793
– Gross Longs:	13,295	8,312	2,119
– Gross Shorts:	15,084	5,730	2,912
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	63.6	25.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	-3.2	-13.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 156,856 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,624 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 174,480 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	54.7	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	77.8	4.3
– Net Position:	156,856	-210,903	54,047
– Gross Longs:	294,873	498,044	93,336
– Gross Shorts:	138,017	708,947	39,289
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.5	9.3	88.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-10.6	14.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -57,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,404 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	55.2	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.5	32.4	11.5
– Net Position:	-57,072	56,176	896
– Gross Longs:	67,213	135,804	29,236
– Gross Shorts:	124,285	79,628	28,340
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.4	82.1	55.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.5	12.0	2.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 11,539 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.4	38.4	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	42.4	9.7
– Net Position:	11,539	-14,729	3,190
– Gross Longs:	149,364	141,918	38,952
– Gross Shorts:	137,825	156,647	35,762
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.9	47.2	45.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-15.3	9.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -41,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,881 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	69.0	19.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.4	27.6	17.8
– Net Position:	-41,186	40,007	1,179
– Gross Longs:	11,525	66,778	18,411
– Gross Shorts:	52,711	26,771	17,232
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	64.7	83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-11.7	21.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 27,578 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,826 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.7	42.3	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	55.9	12.4
– Net Position:	27,578	-30,260	2,682
– Gross Longs:	92,812	94,074	30,230
– Gross Shorts:	65,234	124,334	27,548
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	52.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.2	-32.5	17.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 52,644 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.9	30.3	17.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	61.4	7.2
– Net Position:	52,644	-77,313	24,669
– Gross Longs:	121,661	75,380	42,604
– Gross Shorts:	69,017	152,693	17,935
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	92.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.6	-37.8	4.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -29,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,013 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	70.2	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.7	31.6	4.3
– Net Position:	-29,567	27,657	1,910
– Gross Longs:	13,839	50,226	5,009
– Gross Shorts:	43,406	22,569	3,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.1	65.2	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.0	-24.4	31.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 82,880 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,242 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.9	37.7	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	76.3	1.3
– Net Position:	82,880	-87,127	4,247
– Gross Longs:	126,009	85,018	7,071
– Gross Shorts:	43,129	172,145	2,824
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.8	33.8	46.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	12.4	-2.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 36,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,012 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,643 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.5	38.4	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	69.4	0.8
– Net Position:	36,674	-41,394	4,720
– Gross Longs:	71,431	51,277	5,780
– Gross Shorts:	34,757	92,671	1,060
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	5.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.6	31.7	47.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.7	-14.6	9.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,638 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.6	2.1	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.5	7.0	5.3
– Net Position:	1,172	-1,120	-52
– Gross Longs:	16,410	485	1,162
– Gross Shorts:	15,238	1,605	1,214
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.5	31.7	34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.4	-22.0	-6.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

27 Feb

USD/JPY Declines, but the Overall Outlook for the Yen Remains Hazy

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY is trading lower at 155.79 on Friday. Meanwhile, the yen remains under pressure at the end of the week. It is on track to record a second consecutive weekly decline amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy.

This week, the Japanese government nominated two academics known for favouring loose monetary policy to the BoJ board. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, following a meeting with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, expressed concerns about the possibility of further interest rate hikes.

In contrast, board member Hajime Takata, who holds a more hawkish stance, has called for additional policy tightening. He also indicated that the bank’s price stability target is nearly achieved.

Governor Ueda himself noted that the BoJ will carefully assess incoming economic data at its March and April meetings, leaving the door open to a potential short-term rate hike.

Economic statistics are also influencing market expectations. Inflation in Tokyo has slowed to its lowest level in over a year, partly due to government subsidies for utilities. This has reinforced expectations that the central bank may refrain from tightening policy in the near term.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is forming a consolidation range around the 156.15 level. A decline towards 155.50 is expected today, after which a corrective move back towards 156.15 may follow. A breakout above this range could open the way to further gains towards 157.50. Conversely, a break below the range would signal a continuation of the downward move, initially towards 154.18, with scope to extend towards 151.82. Technically, this bearish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains above zero but is pointing firmly lower.

On the H1 chart, the pair has broken below the 156.15 level and is forming a downward wave towards 155.40. A subsequent correction back to 156.15 cannot be ruled out. This short-term bearish bias is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing lower.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is declining amid persistent uncertainty regarding the Bank of Japan’s next policy move. Market expectations are being pulled between hawkish signals from some board members and more cautious communication from the leadership, reinforced by softer Tokyo inflation data. Technical analysis suggests scope for further short-term downside, although a corrective bounce remains possible.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

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26 Feb

EUR/USD in Positive Territory: Dollar Weakness Presents Opportunities for Investors

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD rose for the second consecutive day and is approaching 1.1819. Sentiment towards the US dollar remains under pressure amid uncertainty over US tariff policy, which is eroding confidence in the American currency.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that tariff rates for individual countries could be increased from the current 10% to 15% or higher, but did not specify the criteria for such changes.

President Donald Trump adopted a measured tone on tariffs in his annual address to Congress. At the same time, he made it clear that he would not change his strategy, despite the Supreme Court’s decision to cancel his large-scale “reciprocal” duties.

In terms of monetary policy, the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting.

Additional caution stems from ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran on the nuclear program, the next round of which is taking place today in Geneva.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming a consolidation range around 1.1818. An upward move towards 1.1862 appears likely, with scope for an extension towards 1.1888. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD indicator: its signal line remains above zero and is pointing higher, reflecting sustained bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the pair is developing the next upward wave towards 1.1860. After reaching this level, a pullback towards 1.1818 could follow, before a renewed advance towards 1.1888. Technically, this scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above 50 and rising towards 80.

Conclusion

In summary, EUR/USD continues its gradual recovery as persistent uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy weighs on dollar sentiment. While Trump’s Congressional address offered no clarity on the trade front, and ongoing US-Iran negotiations add a layer of geopolitical caution, the technical picture remains constructive. The pair is building momentum within a consolidation range, with upside targets at 1.1862 and 1.1888. Both MACD and Stochastic indicators support the bullish bias, suggesting further gains are likely in the near term. The key level to watch is 1.1818 – holding above this support keeps the upward trajectory intact, while a break below could signal a temporary pause. For now, the path of least resistance appears higher.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

25 Feb

GBP/USD Extends Gains for Fourth Consecutive Day as Investors Watch BoE Rate Outlook

By RoboForex Analytical Department

GBP/USD continues to rise on Wednesday, reaching 1.3516.

Following recent comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, investors are seeking additional clarification on his decision to keep the rate unchanged at the last meeting. The Monetary Policy Committee left the rate unchanged, with a narrow margin.

The market expects two rate cuts in 2026, taking the rate down to 3.25%. However, the timing of the easing remains uncertain. If Bailey signals the possibility of a cut as early as March, the market could begin pricing in more than 50bps of easing this year.

An additional source of pressure stems from US President Donald Trump’s trade policy. The baseline tariff of 10% has already entered into force. However, it remains unclear when an increase to 15% might be introduced.

The focus is also on the by-election in the Gorton and Denton constituency in Manchester, which is seen as an important test for Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the Labour Party. Political uncertainty is adding to sterling volatility.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a broad consolidation range around the 1.3500 level. Today, an expansion towards 1.3560 is possible. Subsequently, a correction towards 1.3494 may follow. After completing this correction, a new consolidation range is likely to form. If it breaks to the upside, the next target would be 1.3622. If it breaks to the downside, the next target may be 1.3383. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is below the zero level and pointing upward.

On the H1 GBP/USD chart, the market formed a compact consolidation range around 1.3500 and, following an upside breakout, is developing a wave structure towards 1.3560. Subsequently, a downward move towards 1.3500 cannot be ruled out. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is above the 50 level and pointing upward.

Conclusion

In summary, GBP/USD extends its recovery for a fourth consecutive session as markets await clearer signals from BoE Governor Bailey on the timing of potential rate cuts. While the baseline scenario anticipates two reductions this year, any dovish surprise could trigger further repricing. Technically, the pair is building momentum within a broad consolidation range, with near-term resistance at 1.3560 and support at 1.3494. A sustained break above 1.3560 would open the door to 1.3622, while a failure could result in a retest of lower-range levels. Political uncertainty from the upcoming by-election and ongoing US trade policy risks add further volatility. The near-term bias remains cautiously bullish, but direction will depend on Bailey’s tone and market interpretation.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

24 Feb

USD/JPY in the Black as Investors Eye Geopolitical Flare-Up

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY rose to 154.91 on Tuesday. The yen surrendered the previous session’s gains, while the dollar found support despite uncertainty over US trade policy.

Over the weekend, President Donald Trump announced his intention to raise global tariffs from 10% to 15%, following a Supreme Court decision that overturned his “reciprocal” duties. He also warned of tougher measures against countries that “play games” with existing trade agreements.

Tokyo urged Washington to ensure that the court’s decision does not harm Japanese companies and reaffirmed its commitment to the existing trade agreement with the US.

At the same time, Japanese media reported that US authorities held consultations last month on exchange rate policy to support the yen and are prepared to coordinate possible intervention at Japan’s request. The initiative was overseen by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent amid concerns that political uncertainty ahead of Japan’s general election could heighten market volatility.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the pair has formed a consolidation range around 154.00. It has now broken out to the upside, opening the way for a move towards 155.75. After reaching this level, a decline towards 151.80 is likely. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line holding above the zero level while turning clearly downward.

On the H1 USD/JPY chart, the pair has broken above 154.80 and is forming an upward wave structure targeting 155.75. Thereafter, a pullback to 154.70 cannot be ruled out. This scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line positioned above the 80 level and continuing to point firmly upward.

Conclusion

In summary, USD/JPY has resumed its upward momentum, breaking above recent consolidation as the dollar finds support despite escalating trade policy uncertainty. The market is weighing Trump’s aggressive tariff stance against signals that US authorities stand ready to support the yen if necessary.

Technically, the pair has cleared near-term resistance and is targeting 155.75, with indicators suggesting further short-term upside potential. However, the broader outlook remains clouded by geopolitical risks and the possibility of coordinated intervention should the yen weaken excessively. A sustained move above 155.75 would open the way towards 157.00, while a reversal below 154.70 could signal a return to range-bound trading.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 Feb

Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen, USD Index Bets into Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 17th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen, AUD & CAD

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (32,061 contracts), the Australian Dollar (12,722 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (12,550 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,378 contracts), the US Dollar Index (1,057 contracts), the Brazilian Real (681 contracts) and Bitcoin (621 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-16,594 contracts), the EuroFX (-5,825 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-829 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-94 contracts) registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen, USD Index Bets into Bullish Positions

Highlighting the currency data this week, there were strong gains by the Japanese Yen, the Australian Dollar, and the Canadian Dollar while the US Dollar Index saw its first bullish position in quite a while.

The Japanese yen speculator position this week rose by over +32,000 weekly contracts. This was the highest jump in one-week contracts since October. The Japanese weekly speculator contracts have now risen for five consecutive weeks and in seven out of the last nine weeks. This positive sentiment has brought the Japanese yen net speculator position back into a bullish level with a total net standing of 12,955 contracts this week. This is the first positive week out of the last six weeks for the Japanese yen position in the FOREX markets. The Japanese yen has continued to be a subdued currency against the US dollar and saw a shortfall this week. The USD/JPY currency pair this week closed above the 155.00 level, which remains near historic Japanese yen weakness. However, this currency pair has bounced off of resistance at the 160.00 level for the third time in the past year.

The Australian Dollar speculator position continues to improve week to week. This week’s gain was over +12,000 contracts, and the Australian Dollar speculator position has now risen for 12 consecutive weeks. The spec position has jumped by over +130,000 contracts in the past 12 weeks, which has brought the position from a -84,176 contracts on November 25th to this week’s total of 45,931 net contracts. The Australian Dollar speculator level had been so consistently bearish that we have not seen a net position above this week’s level since October of 2017. In the forex markets, the Australian Dollar keeps chugging along higher against the US Dollar and this week closed above the 0.7075 level, marking the highest close since 2023. The Australian Dollar is higher by approximately 6% since the beginning of 2026.

Next up, the Canadian Dollar has also been on a rise as the speculator position has now risen for five consecutive weeks and has been higher in 10 out of the last 12 weeks. In just these last 12 weeks alone, the speculator position has surged by +176,240 contracts, taking the overall net position from a super bearish total of -150,414 net contracts on November 25th to this week’s bullish position of 25,826 net contracts. The Canadian Dollar has also been modestly rising in the currency markets against the US Dollar. Since November, the CAD is up by approximately 3% and the CAD currently trades just below its 200-week moving average at the 0.7312 exchange rate.

Next up, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has seen four consecutive weekly gains in speculator positions and has now seen higher speculator bets on a weekly basis in 11 out of the past 12 weeks. This week’s gain brought the overall USD Index net positioning to a small bullish position of just +328 contracts. This is the first bullish position since June of 2025, a span of 36 weeks. In the foreign exchange markets this week, the USD Index was higher by almost 1% on the week, but price gains were rejected around the 98.00 resistance level. Since the start of 2025, the DXY is down by approximately 11% and currently, the DXY has overhead resistance at 98.00, while looking lower around the 96.50 level, there has been strong support found.

U.S. Dollar Index Leads Price Gains This Week

The U.S. Dollar Index was the highest riser over the past five days, with a 1.01% increase on the week. The Mexican Peso was marginally higher with a 0.22% increase, followed by the Australian Dollar, which rose by 0.12%.

On the downside, the biggest decline was seen by Bitcoin which fell by -1.58% followed by the Japanese Yen, which dipped by -1.49%. The British Pound Sterling was lower by -1.23% followed by the New Zealand Dollar, which declined by -1.10%, and the Swiss Franc, which fell by -0.94%. The Euro dipped by -0.74% while the Canadian Dollar was lower by -0.40%, and the Brazilian Real saw a modestly lower return by -0.24%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Canadian Dollar (100 percent) and the Australian Dollar (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (95 percent), Bitcoin (87 percent) and the Mexican Peso (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (18 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is the lone currency in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the British Pound (22 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (25 percent) and the US Dollar Index (45 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (45.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (42.2 percent)
EuroFX (95.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (97.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (21.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (28.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (54.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (45.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (94.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (91.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (24.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (68.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (68.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (63.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (62.5 percent)
Bitcoin (87.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (74.2 percent)

Bitcoin & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (50 percent) and the Australian Dollar (42 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (30 percent), the US Dollar Index (11 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-5 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (11.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (8.7 percent)
EuroFX (4.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (8.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-5.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (3.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (1.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-9.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (3.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (29.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (24.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (42.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (35.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (-14.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-12.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-7.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-12.2 percent)
Bitcoin (50.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (32.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 328 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,057 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -729 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.0	26.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.7	24.1	11.3
– Net Position:	328	694	-1,022
– Gross Longs:	15,416	7,094	1,996
– Gross Shorts:	15,088	6,400	3,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.0	58.5	18.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-10.1	-7.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 174,480 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 180,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.0	53.1	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	78.0	4.7
– Net Position:	174,480	-227,677	53,197
– Gross Longs:	311,549	487,219	96,673
– Gross Shorts:	137,069	714,896	43,476
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.2	3.6	86.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-4.0	0.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,594 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,810 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	48.2	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.1	32.4	11.8
– Net Position:	-42,404	37,654	4,750
– Gross Longs:	82,015	115,022	32,847
– Gross Shorts:	124,419	77,368	28,097
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.6	74.9	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	3.3	9.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,955 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 32,061 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.4	40.0	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.8	44.6	10.1
– Net Position:	12,955	-16,168	3,213
– Gross Longs:	143,172	141,766	39,166
– Gross Shorts:	130,217	157,934	35,953
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.3	46.8	45.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.1	-1.0	-0.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -40,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,259 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	68.7	20.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.2	28.4	18.3
– Net Position:	-40,881	38,596	2,285
– Gross Longs:	10,072	65,773	19,844
– Gross Shorts:	50,953	27,177	17,559
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.1	62.4	88.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	-4.6	14.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,826 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 12,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.0	42.9	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	56.8	11.9
– Net Position:	25,826	-30,374	4,548
– Gross Longs:	89,601	93,653	30,479
– Gross Shorts:	63,775	124,027	25,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.9	-28.4	0.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,931 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,722 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,209 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.0	32.3	17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	61.2	6.8
– Net Position:	45,931	-73,989	28,058
– Gross Longs:	117,820	82,854	45,601
– Gross Shorts:	71,889	156,843	17,543
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	42.3	-36.9	12.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -35,013 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -94 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,919 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	76.3	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.3	30.1	4.7
– Net Position:	-35,013	33,709	1,304
– Gross Longs:	11,183	55,719	4,750
– Gross Shorts:	46,196	22,010	3,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.9	72.0	69.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-11.8	28.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,951 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.6	39.1	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	78.2	1.2
– Net Position:	84,122	-88,665	4,543
– Gross Longs:	128,197	88,449	7,231
– Gross Shorts:	44,075	177,114	2,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.2	32.0	48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	14.3	1.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,643 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,962 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.6	27.3	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	68.2	0.7
– Net Position:	31,643	-36,474	4,831
– Gross Longs:	58,395	24,271	5,456
– Gross Shorts:	26,752	60,745	625
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	8.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.0	35.2	48.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	6.1	11.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,638 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,017 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.1	2.0	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.1	9.3	4.7
– Net Position:	1,638	-1,707	69
– Gross Longs:	16,593	463	1,163
– Gross Shorts:	14,955	2,170	1,094
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.4	18.6	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	50.3	-52.6	-0.4

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COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

20 Feb

GBP/USD: Slide Enters Fifth Consecutive Day

By RoboForex Analytical Department

GBP/USD fell for the fifth consecutive day, reaching 1.3445. The slowdown in headline price growth has boosted expectations of an imminent rate cut by the Bank of England, although underlying price pressures remain robust.

Annual inflation in January slowed to 3.0% from 3.4% in December, in line with forecasts. However, inflation in the services sector, which reflects domestic price pressures, only fell to 4.4% from 4.5%, above the expected 4.3%. This partly supported the pound. Earlier, sterling had fallen after weak labour data raised expectations of a rate cut.

According to Chris Turner, Head of Global Research at ING, the market had been counting on a more pronounced slowdown in inflation, but the data were not unambiguously weak. A better-than-expected figure for services gave sterling “only limited respite.”

Investors now price the chance of a 25bp rate cut by the Bank of England next month at around 85%. By the end of the year, the market fully prices in two 25bp reductions.

The political situation remains an additional factor of uncertainty. The upcoming parliamentary by-election in Greater Manchester could reignite discussions about Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership in the event of a Labour defeat. According to ING, a major loss for the party could increase pressure on the pound and the government bond market.

Technical Analysis

The H4 chart maintains a pronounced downtrend. After a series of lower highs, the pair broke through the 1.3490–1.3500 zone and accelerated its decline to 1.3430–1.3440. The price moves along the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, confirming the dominance of sellers.

Local rebound attempts remain weak and are quickly sold into. The nearest resistance stands at 1.3490–1.3520, followed by 1.3660. Support is at 1.3430; a break below would open the path to further losses.

The H1 time frame shows a sharp sell-off on 19 February, followed by narrow consolidation at the lows. The Bollinger Bands have begun to narrow, suggesting volatility is easing after the recent sharp move.

The price is holding near 1.3430–1.3450. A sustained move above 1.3490 would allow for a more pronounced corrective pullback. The bearish scenario remains intact while the pair trades below 1.3490.

Conclusion

In summary, GBP/USD remains entrenched in a sustained downtrend, extending its losing streak to five sessions. While headline inflation softened as expected, sticky services inflation and resilient underlying pressures complicate the BoE’s policy calculus. The market remains firmly priced for a March rate cut, with political risks adding to the uncertainty. Technically, the pair has breached key support and trades with a clear bearish bias. Any corrective bounces are likely to be capped near 1.3490–1.3520, with a break below 1.3430 opening the door to deeper losses. The near-term outlook remains firmly negative unless prices can reclaim the 1.3490 level.

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19 Feb

EUR/USD Forced Lower: US Dollar Has a Strong Case

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD on Thursday stabilised at 1.1792 after a sharp decline the day before. The US dollar was supported by strong US macro data and unexpectedly tough signals from the Fed.

The minutes of the previous meeting showed that disagreements remain within the Federal Reserve regarding the future path of rates. This suggests that it may not be easy for the new chair to implement a rate cut. Some members had previously explicitly admitted the possibility of a rate hike if inflation remains above target.

The market has slightly reduced expectations for policy easing this year, but still prices in two 25-basis-point cuts before the end of the year.

Additional support for the dollar was provided by industrial production data. It grew at the highest rate in almost a year. Orders for core capital goods exceeded forecasts, and the number of new home mortgages reached a five-month high.

PMI indices and GDP data are due next, which may provide additional guidance on the path of interest rates.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD stays close to 1.1790–1.1800 after breaking support at 1.1885 and accelerating the decline. The price has firmed below the Bollinger Bands’ midline; the bands have widened, indicating bearish momentum. The MACD is in negative territory; the histogram is deepening further, reinforcing downward momentum. The Stochastic oscillator has rebounded from oversold. Against this background, a brief correction is possible, but the structure remains weak. The nearest support is at 1.1765, and resistance is at 1.1885.

On the lower H1 time frame, a sharp downward move is visible, followed by local stabilisation. The price is forming a small bounce off 1.1780 but remains below the Bollinger Bands’ middle line. The MACD remains negative, although the pressure is gradually decreasing. The Stochastic oscillator is in the overbought zone, suggesting that any corrective rebound could fade in the 1.1820–1.1840 area.

The overall picture points to a short-term rebound within a broader bearish move.

Conclusion

In summary, EUR/USD remains under decisive pressure following hawkish Fed signals and resilient US economic data. The technical breakdown below key support has confirmed a bearish shift, with momentum indicators favouring further downside despite oversold conditions. The current stabilisation appears corrective rather than reversal, with any bounce likely capped near 1.1820–1.1840. Upcoming US PMI and GDP releases will shape the near-term direction. A break below 1.1765 would open the door to deeper losses towards 1.1700, while a sustained move above 1.1885 is needed to alleviate bearish pressure.

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18 Feb

USD/JPY Moderately Higher: Market Balances Between Data and Forecasts

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY rose to 153.50 on Wednesday. The yen gave up some of the gains from the previous session, despite strong foreign trade statistics.

Japan’s exports rose at their fastest pace in more than three years in January, driven by robust demand for AI-related chips. This data increased expectations of continued policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan.

At the same time, weak fourth-quarter GDP, which came in below forecasts and narrowly avoided a technical recession, is restraining optimism.

Investors believe Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s economic policy could support growth and indirectly strengthen the case for a gradual rate hike. The market is now pricing in the possibility of a tightening policy in April.

The IMF has previously stated that it does not set a specific target level for the yen, believing instead that the exchange rate is determined by market factors.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has entered a consolidation phase following a sharp drop from 157.50–158.00. The price is currently held in the range of 152.25–153.80. The Bollinger Bands have narrowed markedly, indicating that volatility is declining and the market is forming a base. The 153.80–153.95 area represents the nearest resistance. Support stands at 152.25. As long as the price remains below 153.80, the structure remains neutral to bearish.

On the shorter H1 time frame, there is a short-term local rebound from 152.80–153.00 with an attempt to exit towards the upper limit of the range. The price is approaching 153.90, where strong intraday resistance is forming. A break above 153.95 would open the way towards 154.60. Failure to break resistance could bring the pair back to 153.00 and then on to 152.25.

Overall, the market is compressing ahead of a potential move. A breakout of the range will set the direction for the next motion.

Conclusion

In summary, USD/JPY remains caught between conflicting fundamental factors: robust export data support BoJ normalisation expectations, but weak GDP and political uncertainty limit yen strength. Technically, the pair is coiling within a tightening range, signalling an imminent directional breakout. The neutral-bearish bias persists as long as the price holds below 153.80–153.95 resistance. A clear break above this level would target 154.60, while failure could trigger a retest of 152.25 support. With the BoJ’s April policy meeting in focus, the next significant move awaits a fresh catalyst.

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17 Feb

EURUSD Slides Smoothly: Fed Minutes in Focus

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EURUSD is moving smoothly downward and has touched 1.1840. Investors are preparing for the release of key US statistics that could affect expectations for the Fed’s future policy.

The focus is on the minutes of the last Fed meeting, a preliminary estimate of GDP, and the PCE core inflation index. The latter is a key policy gauge for the regulator.

The dollar came under pressure last week following softer inflation data, which increased expectations of rate easing in the second half of the year. However, a strong labour market report – showing the highest employment growth in more than a year and an unexpected decline in unemployment – pointed to the resilience of the economy.

The market is now pricing in the first rate cut in June. Overall, around 62 basis points of easing are expected for 2026, corresponding to two 25 bp reductions and roughly a 50% probability of a third step.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 time frame, EURUSD is consolidating after pulling back from January highs. The range has expanded, but the price is gradually moving towards its lower limit. The key level stands at 1.1835, an intermediate support within the wider range of 1.1765–1.2000. If it holds, sideways movement with attempts to correct upward is likely to persist. A break below 1.1835 would open the way to 1.1765. A return above 1.1890–1.1900 would ease bearish pressure and return the pair to the middle of the range.

Short-term downward pressure remains on the H1 chart for EURUSD. The price consistently forms lower highs and lows, trading near the bottom of the Bollinger Bands. The middle line acts as dynamic resistance.

The Stochastic oscillator is in the oversold zone, which allows for local rebounds, but the MACD remains in negative territory – momentum is still on the side of sellers. The nearest support is at 1.1835. Securing below it would intensify the decline towards 1.1810–1.1800. Resistance stands at 1.1860–1.1870.

Conclusion

In summary, EURUSD remains under steady selling pressure as markets await pivotal US data that will shape Fed expectations. The pair is testing critical support at 1.1835, with technical indicators confirming bearish momentum despite oversold conditions. The fundamental picture is mixed: softer inflation points to eventual Fed easing, but robust employment data complicates the timeline. The near-term direction hinges entirely on today’s releases. A break below 1.1835 would likely accelerate losses towards 1.1765, while a rebound above 1.1890–1.1900 could signal a temporary respite. Until then, the path of least resistance remains lower.

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