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COT Currency Speculators boost US Dollar Index bullish bets after 2 down weeks

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest release was delayed by the CFTC due to the Christmas holiday.

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 21st 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data was the bounce back in the US Dollar Index bullish positions after two straight down weeks. The speculative bets for the dollar index rose by the largest one-week total of the past eleven weeks and brought the overall bullish position back over the +35,000 level. Overall, the dollar index positioning has now been continually bullish since July 6th, a span of twenty-five straight weeks. The last twelve weeks have seen positions above +30,000 net contracts which is the first time that has happened since early 2019.

Joining the US Dollar Index (3,874 contracts) with positive changes last week were the yen (1,237 contracts), Mexican peso (5,881 contracts), Euro (1,717 contracts) and the Canadian dollar (3,251 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets last week were the Russian ruble (-7,903 contracts), Bitcoin (-106 contracts), Brazil real (-1,930 contracts), Swiss franc (-891 contracts), British pound sterling (-6,938 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-275 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-1,451 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-21-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	56,162	81	35,115	86	-40,331	8	5,216	74
EUR	672,239	73	-10,162	32	-15,626	71	25,788	17
GBP	207,747	44	-57,686	32	71,124	72	-13,438	28
JPY	183,743	44	-52,286	35	71,159	72	-18,873	9
CHF	40,920	15	-9,227	54	15,945	49	-6,718	44
CAD	145,562	27	-9,877	47	7,440	56	2,437	35
AUD	191,309	76	-80,354	9	98,033	92	-17,679	9
NZD	41,354	27	-6,136	61	8,866	44	-2,730	21
MXN	94,469	0	-4,792	25	6,382	75	-1,590	36
RUB	45,372	46	8,621	34	-9,877	63	1,256	69
BRL	30,811	28	-6,547	60	7,228	43	-681	59
Bitcoin	12,852	72	-878	83	39	0	839	32

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 35,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.3	3.5	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	75.3	3.0
– Net Position:	35,115	-40,331	5,216
– Gross Longs:	46,222	1,941	6,886
– Gross Shorts:	11,107	42,272	1,670
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.0 to 1	4.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.4	7.6	73.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	1.3	-4.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,717 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,879 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	56.8	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	59.1	7.9
– Net Position:	-10,162	-15,626	25,788
– Gross Longs:	196,595	381,670	79,101
– Gross Shorts:	206,757	397,296	53,313
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.9	71.3	17.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	4.6	-4.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -57,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,748 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	78.8	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.8	44.5	16.7
– Net Position:	-57,686	71,124	-13,438
– Gross Longs:	20,824	163,619	21,240
– Gross Shorts:	78,510	92,495	34,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.4	71.7	27.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.9	31.7	-16.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -52,286 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,523 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	77.4	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.5	38.6	19.5
– Net Position:	-52,286	71,159	-18,873
– Gross Longs:	22,191	142,161	16,916
– Gross Shorts:	74,477	71,002	35,789
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	71.5	9.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.6	-25.8	-2.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,227 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,336 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	66.8	27.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	27.9	43.4
– Net Position:	-9,227	15,945	-6,718
– Gross Longs:	2,460	27,344	11,046
– Gross Shorts:	11,687	11,399	17,764
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.8	48.8	43.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.7	-5.2	-9.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	45.7	20.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	40.6	18.6
– Net Position:	-9,877	7,440	2,437
– Gross Longs:	45,925	66,483	29,450
– Gross Shorts:	55,802	59,043	27,013
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.8	56.3	34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	21.3	-38.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -80,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,451 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,903 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	77.8	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.0	26.6	17.6
– Net Position:	-80,354	98,033	-17,679
– Gross Longs:	22,958	148,859	16,070
– Gross Shorts:	103,312	50,826	33,749
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.1	92.0	9.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	23.8	-36.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,861 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	64.9	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.6	43.4	13.4
– Net Position:	-6,136	8,866	-2,730
– Gross Longs:	11,050	26,819	2,809
– Gross Shorts:	17,186	17,953	5,539
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.0	44.1	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.9	37.0	-57.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.8	63.8	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.9	57.1	5.5
– Net Position:	-4,792	6,382	-1,590
– Gross Longs:	30,021	60,300	3,563
– Gross Shorts:	34,813	53,918	5,153
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.3	75.5	36.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.6	-16.4	-18.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,547 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,930 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	59.1	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.4	35.6	9.5
– Net Position:	-6,547	7,228	-681
– Gross Longs:	10,217	18,196	2,241
– Gross Shorts:	16,764	10,968	2,922
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.9	43.1	58.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-11.6	-2.3

Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,621 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,903 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,524 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.7	53.3	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	75.1	2.2
– Net Position:	8,621	-9,877	1,256
– Gross Longs:	18,942	24,177	2,253
– Gross Shorts:	10,321	34,054	997
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.8	62.9	68.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.6	29.6	-22.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -878 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -772 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.9	3.2	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	73.7	2.9	7.1
– Net Position:	-878	39	839
– Gross Longs:	8,594	408	1,755
– Gross Shorts:	9,472	369	916
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.8	34.3	32.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.8	-17.5	-9.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

27 Dec

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 27.12.2021 (NZDUSD, BRENT, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is trading at 0.6808; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.6765 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.6915. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6720. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6635. To confirm further growth, the asset must break the resistance level and fix above 0.6845; so far, bulls haven’t been able to break this area.

BRENT

Brent is trading at 75.56; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 73.70 and then resume moving upwards to reach 82.15. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 70.35. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 67.65.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is trading at 0.9195; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.9205 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.9115. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.9250. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.9340. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the descending channel’s downside border and fix below 0.9140; in this case, the asset may continue falling and cover the distance equal to the descending channel’s width.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Dec

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 27.12.2021 (GOLD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, after finishing the correctional downtrend, XAUUSD is trying to form the second wave to the upside. Convergence on MACD is another signal that the correction is over. In this case, the next upside targets may be 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 1908.00 and 1969.50 respectively. The key support is at 1721.65.

As we can see in the H1 chart, the first rising wave after convergence on MACD has reached 50.0% fibo and may later continue towards 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 1829.35 and 1847.30 respectively. The key upside target is the current high at 1877.09, while the support is at 1752.50.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset is forming a wide sideways channel. After testing 61.8% fibo several times, the price has failed to reach 76.0% fibo at 0.9154. The pair’s future movement depends on a breakout of either support or resistance at 0.9085 and 0.9374 respectively.

In the H1 chart, after growing and reaching 61.8% fibo, USDCHF is falling towards the low at 0.9157. At the same time, there is convergence on MACD, which may hint at a reversal and a new growth to reach 76.0% fibo at 0.9322.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Dec

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Looks To Rebound

By Orbex

USDJPY breaks higher

The US dollar inched higher after November’s core PCE jumped to 4.7%. A break above the supply area near 114.20 indicates that the bulls have gained the upper hand.

As sellers rush to the exit, the pair may enjoy solid support above the former resistance at 114.05. An overbought RSI has temporarily limited the initial breakout range.

After a short accumulation phase, the bulls may have an unobstructed path towards the psychological level of 115.00. That is a major hurdle right under the previous peak.

USDCAD retreats to daily support

The Canadian dollar bounces back as GDP growth gained traction in October. The US dollar is struggling for support after its tentative break above the August high at 1.2950.

A retreat below 1.2900 has led traders to dump leveraged positions. The pair is testing the daily support at 1.2760 which lies along the 30-day moving average. And this makes it an area of interest for the bulls to attempt a rebound.

1.2920 is a fresh resistance ahead. A deeper correction may send the greenback to 1.2650 near December’s lows.

US 100 completes V-shaped recovery

The Nasdaq 100 continues to recover as improved economic data outweigh covid concerns.

The index has met solid buying interest near 15600. This used to be a supply zone from last September. Since then it has recouped losses from the recent liquidation.

The RSI’s overbought situation may cause a brief pullback while short-term traders take profit. 16170 is the closest support and 15850 is another layer of defense. On the upside, a break above 16460 could extend the rally to the all-time high at 16770 and beyond.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Dec

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.12.27

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1325
Prev Close: 1.1305
% chg. over the last day: -0.17%

Today is a bank holiday in most European countries, so the volatility in the market is expected to be low in the first half of the day. In the medium term, an increase in the Fed balance sheet and reduced concerns about the Omicron strain will temporarily weaken the dollar index and increase the European currency.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1293, 1.1230, 1.1168
Resistance levels: 1.1342, 1.1360, 1.1436, 1.1535, 1.1613, 1.1667, 1.1717

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is still bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive. The volatility is below average due to the holidays. It is better to consider sell deals after a false breakdown of the 1.1342 resistance level. Buy trades can be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.1293, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1360 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3404
Prev Close: 1.3379
% chg. over the last day: -0.18%

Today and tomorrow is a bank holiday in the UK, so volatility on the GBP/USD currency pair is expected to be low these days. In the medium term, an increase in the Fed balance sheet and reduced concerns about the Omicron strain will temporarily weaken the dollar index and increase the British currency.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3362, 1.3301, 1.3277, 1.3220
Resistance levels: 1.3434, 1.3507, 1.3575, 1.3685

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is still bullish. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, traders should consider buy positions from the 1.3362 support level but only with additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.3434, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.3277 support level and consolidates below, the bearish scenario will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 114.37
Prev Close: 114.32
% chg. over the last day: -0.04%

Japan’s retail sales rose faster than expected in November thanks to a decline in COVID-19 cases this month, which prompted buyers to increase spending on goods and services. Japan’s government on Friday approved a record $940 billion budget for the fiscal year 2022.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 114.30, 114.12, 113.95, 113.68, 113.30, 112.62, 112.30
Resistance levels: 115.15, 115.50

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair has changed to bullish. The MACD indicator is signaling a divergence, which means that a slight correction should be expected. Buy positions should be considered from the 114.12 support level, but with additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative. There is no optimal entry point for sell positions now.

Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below 113.68, the uptrend will likely be broken.

News feed for 2021.12.27:

– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2806
Prev Close: 1.2802
% chg. over the last day: -0.03%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency that correlates strongly with oil prices and the dollar index. Oil prices are increasing slowly, while the dollar index was stable on Friday. The Canadian dollar is slowly strengthening. Today and tomorrow, it’s a bank holiday in Canada, so volatility on the USD/CAD currency pair is expected to be low these days.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2783, 1.2721, 1.2677, 1.2638
Resistance levels: 1.2903, 1.2951

From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator is not active, but there is a divergence to buy. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the priority change level of 1.2783. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance level of 1.2903, but with additional confirmation in the form of a sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2783 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Dec

The US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet hits a new record. Airlines around the world cancel flights out of rising Omicron rates

by JustForex

The US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has reached a new record of $8.8 trillion. But it should be noted that the Fed’s bond buying pace is declining now. Meanwhile, the Fed’s total assets are 38% of the US GDP compared to 82% for the ECB and 133% for the Bank of England. The Fed’s balance sheet growth will continue until March 2022, which will have a temporary negative impact on the dollar index, but at the same time, will be a positive factor for the growth of major US stock indices.

The US stock market ended pre-Christmas trading higher on Friday. By the end of the trading week, Dow Jones (US30) gained 0.55% (+0.42% for the week), S&P 500 (US500) added 0.62% (+1.58% for the week), NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) increased by 0.85%, and became a growth leader at the end of the week (+4.10%) among US indices.

European stock indices were mostly on the rise on Friday. The British FTSE 100 (UK100) decreased by 0.02% (+1.41% for the week), German DAX (DE40) gained 1.04% (+1.00% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 1.24% (+2.86% for the week), and French CAC 40 (FR40) decreased by 0.28% but added +4.46% on the week’s result among major European indices. Today is the bank holiday in most European countries, so low volatility is expected on the market.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said Friday that the government had destroyed the “currency bubble” after the central bank took measures last week to protect Turkish lira deposits from volatility. Erdogan also said Turkey’s economy would enter a very different environment in the summer thanks to a “new economic model” of low interest rates.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov threatened Europe with a big war because of Ukraine. “The course of dragging Kyiv into NATO with the prospect of the appearance of shock missile systems near our borders creates unacceptable threats to Russia’s security, provoking serious military risks for all parties involved, up to a large-scale conflict in Europe,” the minister warned.

In recent weeks, Oil has heavily depended on the news related to the Omicron coronavirus strain. It is now difficult to predict exactly how European authorities intend to respond to the upsurge of the disease and how severe the restrictions will be during the Christmas vacations. Today black gold prices are decreasing after airlines around the world canceled a total of about 5,900 flights starting from Dec. 24 because of the spread of COVID-19.

Gazprom has not booked any pumping capacity through the Yamal pipeline for a week now. As the company explained the day before, now it does not use this route because several customers, particularly from France and Germany, have already fully used all their annual contracted volumes and no longer put up requests for gas supplies.

Asian markets mostly traded in positive territory on Friday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.06% (+1.61% for the week), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.13% (+0.62% for the week), and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) increased by 0.44% (+1.59% for the week). Japan’s retail sales rose faster than expected in November thanks to a decline in COVID-19 cases this month, which prompted buyers to increase spending on goods and services. On Friday, Japan’s government approved a record $940 billion budget for the fiscal year 2022. The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy is now aimed at actively stimulating the economy. China Evergrande’s chairman promised to deliver thousands of apartments in December. China’s real estate index increased by 2.5% on this news.

At the commodities market, palladium (+8.89%), wheat (+5.19%), fuel oil (+4.96%), soybeans (+4.45%), WTI oil (+4.3%), platinum (+4.29%), Brent oil (+3.18%), copper (+2.56%) and corn (+2.28%) futures showed the biggest gains for the last week. Lumber (-3.37%) and orange juice (-1.54%) futures showed the biggest drop.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,725.79 +29.23 (+0.62%)

Dow Jones (US30) 35,950.56 +196.67 (+0.55%)

DAX (DE40) 15,756.31 +162.84 (+1.04%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,372.10 −1.24 (−0.017%)

USD Index 96.06 +0.04 (+0.04%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

24 Dec

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 24.12.2021

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After completing the correctional structure at 1.1303 and rebounding from this level, EURUSD is growing towards 1.1352. Later, the market may start another correction to reach 1.1310 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 1.1371.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After finishing the ascending structure at 1.3436, GBPUSD is consolidating below this level. Today, the pair may resume falling to break 1.3397 and then continue trading downwards with the first target at 1.3277.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB has completed the descending wave at 73.20 along with the correction towards 73.52. Possibly, today the pair may continue trading downwards with the short-term target at 72.72.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has completed the ascending structure at 114.50 and may later start a new correction to reach 113.78. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards with the target at 114.15.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has finished the correction at 0.9180. Today, the pair may correct to reach 0.9219 and then form a new descending structure with the target at 0.9145.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has finished the ascending structure at 0.7250; right now, it is falling to reach 0.7220. Later, the market may start a new growth towards 0.7240. After that, the instrument may resume trading downwards to break 0.7188 and then continue falling with the target at 0.7126.

BRENT

Brent has broken 75.00 and may later continue growing towards 80.00. After that, the instrument may start a new correction to return to 75.00 and then resume growing towards 84.24 or even reach the target at 90.00.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold continues trading upwards and may soon reach 1815.66. After that, the instrument may start another correction towards 1800.00 and then resume growing with the target at 1850.00.

S&P 500

After completing the ascending structure at 4740.7, the S&P index is expected to correct towards 4667.7. Later, the market may form one more ascending wave with the target at 4800.0.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

24 Dec

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 24.12.2021 (AUDUSD, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the daily chart, after falling and reaching 38.2% fibo, the descending wave has been followed by a new short-term correction. After this pullback is over, AUDUSD may resume trading downwards to reach 50.0% fibo at 0.6758. The key resistance remains at the high at 0.8007.

AUDUSD_D1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H4 chart shows a more detailed structure of the current correctional uptrend, which has already reached 38.2% fibo. The upside targets may be 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 0.7273 and 0.7340 respectively. The support is the low at 0.6991.

AUDUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the daily chart, the asset continues trading upwards and has already tested the previous high. In the nearest future, USDCAD is expected to start a slight correction, which may later be followed by a further mid-term uptrend towards 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 1.3023 and 1.3336 respectively. The key support remains at the low at 1.2007.

USDCAD_D1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H4 chart, the decline has reached 23.6% fibo after divergence on MACD. The next downside targets may be 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 1.2706, 1.2625, and 1.2546 respectively. A breakout of the local resistance at 1.2963 will result in a further uptrend.

USDCAD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

24 Dec

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.12.24

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1323
Prev Close: 1.1326
% chg. over the last day: +0.03%

Inflationary pressures continue to rise in Germany. Import prices in Germany increased to 24.7% in annual terms in November. Monthly import prices jumped by a colossal 3% in November, which is three times more than the evaluation.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1293, 1.1230, 1.1168
Resistance levels: 1.1360, 1.1436, 1.1535, 1.1613, 1.1667, 1.1717

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is still bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive; volatility is decreasing before the Christmas holidays. It is better to consider sell deals from the priority change level. Buy trades can be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.1293, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1360 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3348
Prev Close: 1.3411
% chg. over the last day: +0.48%

A study in the UK showed that the risk of hospitalization for the Omicron strain was 50-70% lower than for the delta strain. But hospitalizations are not decreasing because Omicron spreads much faster. Analysts expect the UK economic numbers for Q4 to be weak.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3362, 1.3301, 1.3277, 1.3220
Resistance levels: 1.3434, 1.3507, 1.3575, 1.3685

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is still bullish. The weakness of the dollar index has allowed the British currency to strengthen significantly. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone with no signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, traders should consider buy positions from the 1.3362 support level but only with additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.3434, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.3277 support level and consolidates below, the bearish scenario will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 114.04
Prev Close: 114.40
% chg. over the last day: +0.32%

In November, Japan’s consumer inflation demonstrated the most significant increase in annual terms due to higher fuel prices for almost two years, signaling the widening impact of rising global commodity prices. Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes food prices but includes the cost of oil, increased by 0.5% in November. However, this increase is unlikely to prompt the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to reduce monetary stimulus anytime soon since inflation is still far from the central bank’s 2% target.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 114.30, 113.95, 113.76, 113.30, 112.62, 112.30
Resistance levels: 115.15, 115.50

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair has changed to bullish. The price managed to break through the priority change level and consolidate higher. The MACD indicator is signaling a divergence, which means that a slight correction should be expected. Buy positions should be considered from the 114.12 support level, but with additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative. There is no optimal entry point for sell positions now.

Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below 113.46, the uptrend will likely be broken.

News feed for 2021.12.24:

– Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2834
Prev Close: 1.2804
% chg. over the last day: -0.23%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it correlates strongly with oil prices and the dollar index. Oil prices are increasing slowly, while the dollar index was stable yesterday. The Canadian dollar is strengthening. A positive for the Canadian currency was also the GDP data. Canadian GDP increased by 0.8% in November but economic activity is still 0.4% below the pre-pandemic level.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2809, 1.2721, 1.2677, 1.2638
Resistance levels: 1.2903, 1.2951

From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency pair trend is bullish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but sellers’ pressure is decreasing. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the support level of 1.2809. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance level of 1.2903, but with additional confirmation in the form of a sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2783 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

23 Dec

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 23.12.2021 (GBPUSD, BRENT, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is trading at 1.3351; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.3315 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.3505. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.3235. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.3175.

BRENT

Brent is trading at 75.36; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 73.85 and then resume moving upwards to reach 82.25. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 70.45. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 68.25.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is trading at 1.2800; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.2715 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.2960. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the support level. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.2645. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.2555. To confirm further growth, the asset must break the resistance level and fix above 1.2855. This movement will indicate a breakout of the descending channel’s upside border.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.