InvestMacro

By Orbex

Normally, the last two weeks of the year have unusual market dynamics. The vast majority of traders take the time off. This also coincides with governments not publishing economic data, and corporations not publishing reports. Generally, most major issues happen in the new year.

In turn, that creates a combination of trading opportunities for smaller traders who might have some free time around those days. This is particularly true for people who might not be full-time traders.

So, let’s have a look at how you can trade during the end of the year.

There is a big move coming

With everything on hold for about two weeks, or sometimes just a week depending on how the holidays line up, a lot of market-moving events get clustered around the start of the year.

Therefore, traders could use the opportunity to pre-position ahead of that. If you have any open trades throughout that period, it’s recommendable to double-check your stop losses and take profits. That’s because there will likely be a dramatic increase in volatility when the markets return.

On the 1st of January, there’s typically a lot of contracts rolling off, from employment contracts for CEOs to business agreements, to securities lockups. This means traders who are just coming back from the holidays will re-adjust their positions given the new situation.

In general, expert traders position themselves for safety during the extended holiday period. And when they come back, they take on risks in the market.

General trends to watch

That’s why just under 8 out of every 10 years, the stock markets of the world rise in the first couple of trading days in the new year. Logically, a technical correction follows that move, before the market takes on its trajectory for the month.

This might be good for stocks, and currently more risky plays like tech and consumer discretionary. As for currencies, the dollar, franc, and yen could potentially suffer as people pull their assets from safe havens to buy into the new trends of the year.

A new perspective

With traders having had some time off to reflect and balance their strategies, it’s common for professional traders to refine their trading outlook. Getting caught up in the market action could force them to take a particular stance, which they might modify after having some time to reflect. For this reason, traders are often wary of new analyses coming out in the first few days of the year.

Buy and sell recommendations from major investor information suppliers like banks and financial services companies might need some modification. And this could lead to a fundamental shift in the dynamics of some assets over the first few days of the year.

The bottom line is that expert traders generally stay out of the market because it’s a high-risk environment. So, if you are going to get into the markets, make sure you have proper money management and that the trades offer a commensurate amount of a reward.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has finished the descending wave at 1.1292 along with the ascending structure towards 1.1317. Possibly, the pair may fall to reach 1.1280 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 1.1338.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending wave at 1.3457 along with the descending impulse towards 1.3414, GBPUSD has finished the correction to reach 1.3440. Today, the pair may form a new descending structure with the first target at 1.3368 and then start another correction towards 1.3415.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is still correcting towards 73.90. After that, the instrument may trade downwards to reach 72.82 and then start another correction towards 74.34. Later, the market may resume falling with the target at 71.71.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is correcting towards 114.59 and may later form one more ascending structure to reach 115.15. After that, the instrument may start another correction with the target at 114.14.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is consolidating around 0.9180 without any specific direction. Today, the pair may expand the range down to 0.9145 and then resume growing towards 0.9220. After that, the instrument may break this level to the upside and form one more ascending structure with the target at 0.9260.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After finishing the ascending wave at 0.7262 and then descending impulse towards 0.7216, AUDUSD is correcting to reach 0.7242. Later, the market may resume trading downwards with the target at 0.7171.

BRENT

Brent has reached 79.51; right now, it is consolidating below this level. Possibly, today the asset may reach 80.00 and then start a new correction towards 74.55. After that, the instrument may resume growing with the target at 84.24.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has reached 1820.00; right now, it is correcting towards 1808.60. After that, the instrument may start another growth with the target at 1828.00.

S&P 500

The S&P index has finished the ascending wave at 4800.0; right now, it is consolidating around this level. Today, the asset may correct towards 4743.6 and then form one more ascending wave with the target at 4845.5.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Orbex

The current USDCHF structure indicates that at the end of November, the market completed the actionary wave y of the cycle degree. A cycle intervening wave x followed after the actionary wave.

Judging by the internal structure, the cycle intervening wave x can take the form of a primary double zigzag Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ. The actionary wave Ⓦ and the intervening wave Ⓧ in the form of a triple zigzag could already be complete.

In the near future, the market could decline in the final wave Ⓨ. The initial part of the wave Ⓨ hints at a triple zigzag of the intermediate degree. So, we could observe a zigzag drop in the price in the sub-waves (Y)-(X)-(Z) to the level of 0.904. There, wave x will be at 76.4% of wave y.

After wave x ends, the bulls can update the previous high of 0.938, with wave z going up. This level is marked by intervening wave y.

An alternative scenario hints at a price increase. Specifically, the formation of the cycle intervening wave x is fully completed. And it has the form of a triple zigzag of the primary degree.

After the end of the reactionary intervening wave x, there was a price rise and the development of the cycle wave z. This could take the form of a primary double zigzag Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ.

It seems that an intermediate triple zigzag formed within wave Ⓦ and the intervening wave Ⓧ. In turn, this took the form of a double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y).

In the near future, the exchange rate may rise in the intermediate zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) to the level of 0.951. At that point, cycle waves z and y will be equal.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

Article By RoboForex.com

XAGUSD, “Silver vs US Dollar”

XAGUSD is trading at 23.11; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 22.95 and then resume moving upwards to reach 23.900. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 22.05. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 21.10.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.7225; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.7165 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.7325. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.7135. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.7045.

NZDCHF, “New Zealand Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

NZDCHF is trading at 0.6228; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6240 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.61905. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6265. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6355.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Orbex

EURUSD tests important resistance

The US dollar struggles as the Omicron scare subsides. The pair has been stuck in a narrow range between 1.1230 and 1.1360, because of a lack of liquidity and a catalyst.

Following a bounce from 1.1260 price action is testing the upper band of the horizontal consolidation. A bullish breakout would pop up volatility as sellers rush for the exit.

An extended rally would set 1.1450 as the next target. On the downside, a fall below 1.1260 may prolong the sideways action for a few more days.

NZDUSD consolidates recent gains

The New Zealand dollar softens over a limited year-end risk appetite. The latest surge above 0.6830 has put the bears on the defensive. Intraday traders took profit after the RSI showed overextension.

The current flag-shaped consolidation could be an opportunity for the bulls to regroup and catch their breath. The demand zone around 0.6760 is a major level to support the rebound.

On the upside, 0.6840 on the 30-day moving average is the closest resistance. And its breach may trigger a broader rally towards 0.6920.

XAUUSD seeks support

Gold edged higher as the US dollar slipped across the board. A close above the supply zone around 1815 is a short-term confirmation that sentiment favors the upside.

A bullish MA cross on the hourly chart indicates that the recovery could be picking up steam. Above 1820, 1840 would be the target when momentum makes its way back into the market.

In the meantime, buyers may see a retracement to 1803 as an opportunity to buy the dip after the RSI returned to the neutrality area. 1790 is a second level of support.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.1326
• Prev Close: 1.1308
• % chg. over the last day: -0.16%

The ECB reduced the pace of its asset purchases. This is a positive factor for the strengthening of the Euro. However, it should be noted that the FED is also cutting the QE program. Therefore, EUR/USD quotes are not likely to grow significantly, but in the short term, the Euro will be stable.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1293, 1.1230, 1.1168
• Resistance levels: 1.1342, 1.1360, 1.1436, 1.1535, 1.1613, 1.1667, 1.1717

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is still bearish. The price is traded in a corridor. The MACD indicator has become inactive; the volatility is below average due to the holidays. It is better to consider sell deals after a false breakout of the 1.1342 resistance level. Buy trades can be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.1293, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1360 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.12.29:

• – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3437
• Prev Close: 1.3428
• % chg. over the last day: -0.07%

The British government has no plans to impose a nationwide lockdown despite the high sickness rate as the number of hospitalizations is 50% lower than under the Delta strain. Growth in “Brent” oil prices provides additional support to the British currency.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3362, 1.3301, 1.3277, 1.3220
• Resistance levels: 1.3443, 1.3507, 1.3575, 1.3685

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is still bullish. But the MACD indicator is showing a divergence. Under such market conditions, traders should consider buy positions from the 1.3362 support level but only with additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.3443, where there was a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.3301 support level and consolidates below, the bearish scenario will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 114.83
• Prev Close: 114.81
• % chg. over the last day: -0.02%

In terms of monetary policy analysis, Japan’s central bank is now actively stimulating the economy, while the US Federal Reserve is reducing its stimulus program. This means that in the mid-term the dollar index will go up in value, while the Japanese yen will go down. As a result, the USD/JPY currency pair will continue its uptrend.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 114.50, 114.16, 113.76, 113.32, 112.62, 112.30
• Resistance levels: 115.15, 115.50

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator is signaling a divergence at several timeframes, which means that a slight correction should be expected. Buy positions should be considered from the 114.50 support level, but with additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative. There is no optimal entry point for sell positions now.

Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below 114.16, the uptrend will likely be broken.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2784
• Prev Close: 1.2817
• % chg. over the last day: +0.25%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it correlates strongly with oil prices and the dollar index. Yesterday, oil prices increased while the dollar index was stable. As a result, the USD/CAD currency pair has grown slightly.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2783, 1.2721, 1.2677, 1.2638
• Resistance levels: 1.2903, 1.2951

From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency pair trend is bullish. Buyers were able to defend the priority change level, the price rebounded, and broke out the local descending trendline. The MACD indicator has become positive. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals on the lower time frames with the target of 1.2903. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance level of 1.2903 or after breakdown and fixation below the priority change level.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2783 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.12.29:

• – US Crude Oil Inventories (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

by JustForex

Yesterday, the US stock market traded without a single trend. The S&P 500 index (US500) decreased by 0.1%, the Nasdaq technology index (US100) lost 0.56%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) gained 0.26% and rose for the fifth straight trading session, the longest uninterrupted period of growth in two months. Since the beginning of the current year, the Dow Jones (US30) has gained nearly 19%, the S&P 500 (US500) added more than 27%, the Nasdaq (US100) increased by 22.5%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index showed a larger gain for 2021 than the Nasdaq index for the first time since 2016.

On Monday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reduced the recommended isolation time for Americans with asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 infection to five days from 10 days previously. The CDC has issued new recommendations, as well as the approval of new pills and vaccines against COVID-19. This helped investors not respond sharply to the cancellation of thousands of flights and the closure of Apple stores due to increased illness among employees.

European stock indices mostly rose yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) increased by 0.81%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.57% and Spain’s IBEX (ES35) added 0.77%. Spain’s retail sales index jumped by 4.9% in November. The sales did not grow four months in a row. The ECB began to reduce the pace of buying assets. These are the first steps toward ending the PEPP program next year and raising the issue of an interest rate hike. But analysts agree that the ECB will not raise the rates before 2023.

On Tuesday, Asian stock indexes were mixed and are decreasing at the opening on Wednesday. Traders negatively weigh the economic growth risks associated with the Omicron virus outbreak and the latest regulatory tightening in China. In Asia, there are relatively few cases of infection with a strain Оmicron compared to European countries and the United States. Despite this fact, investors are growing concerned that the rise in the disease will lead to lockdowns and new problems in supply chains. But the Australian stock market, which opened on Wednesday for the first time since the Christmas holiday, saw strong gains. The Australian ASX 200 Index (AU200) jumped by 1.21% from the open.

The data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels last week, which was in line with analysts’ expectations. The oil keeps its upward trend as Omicron risks to demand decrease while inventories are also declining, causing a weak deficit. The US Department of Energy will release its report on crude oil inventories today.

The number of tankers carrying gas from the US to Europe has increased by a third. This suggests that Europe does not have enough reserves to pass the heating season.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,786.35 −4.84 (−0.10%)

Dow Jones (US30) 36,398.21 +95.83 (+0.26%)

DAX (DE40) 15,963.70 +128.45 (+0.81%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,372.10 −1.24 (−0.02%)

USD Index 96.16 +0.07 (+0.07%)

• – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Crude Oil Inventories (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Article By RoboForex.com

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset has formed a Harami reversal pattern close to the resistance level. At the moment, EURUSD may reverse and form a new descending impulse. In this case, the downside correctional target may be at 1.1300. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may grow to reach 1.1370 and continue its ascending tendency without testing the support area.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY has formed several reversal patterns, for example, Harami, not far from the resistance area. At the moment, USDJPY may reverse and start a new correctional wave to the downside towards the support level. In this case, the downside target may be at 114.50. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may continue growing to reach 115.20 without correcting towards the support level.

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the support level, EURGBP is reversing and may start another growth towards the next resistance area. In this case, the upside target may be at 0.8460. Later, the market may test the area, rebound from it, and resume the descending tendency. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may fall to reach 0.8390 without any corrections.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.1319
• Prev Close: 1.1326
• % chg. over the last day: +0.06%

Many analytical houses are beginning to revise their growth forecasts downward due to the spread of the Omicron. On the one hand, the Omicron strain is less dangerous. On the other hand, it is transmitted much faster, and many European countries are forced to impose full or partial lockdowns to curb the new wave of disease in the run-up to the New Year holidays. Therefore, investors should not expect strong Q4 2021 reports.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1293, 1.1230, 1.1168
• Resistance levels: 1.1342, 1.1360, 1.1436, 1.1535, 1.1613, 1.1667, 1.1717

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is still bearish. Price is traded in the corridor. The MACD indicator has become inactive; the volatility is below average due to the holidays. It is better to consider sell deals after a false breakout of the 1.1342 resistance level. Buy trades can be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.1293, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1360 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3392
• Prev Close: 1.3442
• % chg. over the last day: +0.37%

Today is a bank holiday in the UK, so volatility on the GBP/USD currency pair is expected to be low. In the medium term, an increase in the Fed balance sheet and lower concerns about the Omicron strain will temporarily weaken the dollar index and a rise in the British currency. The British currency is also positively influenced by the growth of oil prices. Analysts believe that the British pound will be stable until the end of the QE program from the Fed, i.e., until March 2022.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3362, 1.3301, 1.3277, 1.3220
• Resistance levels: 1.3434, 1.3507, 1.3575, 1.3685

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is still bullish. The MACD indicator is showing a divergence. Under such market conditions, traders should consider buy positions from the 1.3362 support level but only with additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.3434, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.3277 support level and consolidates below, the bearish scenario will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 114.36
• Prev Close: 114.88
• % chg. over the last day: +0.45%

Japan’s unemployment rate in November increased for the first time in six months to 2.8% from 2.7% in October. Analysts had forecast no change. Industrial production in Japan increased by 7.2% in November. Analysts had expected a less strong amount of 4.8%. Industrial output peaked last month on a rebound in activity in Japan’s auto sector due to easing problems in component supply chains. Auto production jumped by 43.1% in November.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 114.50, 114.30, 113.95, 113.68, 113.30, 112.62, 112.30
• Resistance levels: 115.15, 115.50

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator is signaling a divergence at several timeframes, which means that a slight correction should be expected. Buy positions should be considered from the 114.50 support level, but with additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative. There is no optimal entry point for sell positions now.

Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below 113.95, the uptrend will likely be broken.

News feed for 2021.12.28:

• – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
• – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2807
• Prev Close: 1.2786
• % chg. over the last day: -0.16%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it correlates strongly with oil prices and the dollar index. Yesterday, oil prices increased, while the dollar index was stable. The Canadian dollar is slowly strengthening. Today is a bank holiday in Canada, so volatility on the USD/CAD currency pair is expected to be low.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2783, 1.2721, 1.2677, 1.2638
• Resistance levels: 1.2903, 1.2951

From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency pair trend is bullish. But the price has tested the priority change level for the third time; the sellers are trying to intercept the initiative. The MACD indicator is not active, but there is a divergence to buy. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the priority change level of 1.2783, but after an additional confirmation in the form of a false breakdown or a new initiative of buyers. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance level of 1.2903 or after breakdown and fixation below the priority change level.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2783 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.