As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset is moving to the downside after finishing the correctional uptrend at 50.0% fibo and divergence on MACD. One can expect another rising impulse towards 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 0.7340 and 0.7420 but the main scenario implies a further downtrend to reach the low at 0.6991.
The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the current descending tendency, which has already tested 38.2% fibo twice. The next downside targets may be 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% fibo at 0.7152, 0.7114, and 0.7069 respectively. The resistance is the high at 0.7314.
USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”
As we can see in the H4 chart, the price is still falling; right now, it testing 50.0% fibo. Later, after completing a slight pullback, the asset may continue trading downwards to reach 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 1.2372 and 1.2237 respectively. The resistance is the high at 1.2963.
The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the current correction. After divergence on MACD, the growth has reached 23.6% fibo; the next upside targets may be 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 1.2589 and 1.2631 respectively. A breakout of the local low at 1.2450 will indicate that the pullback is over and the asset may resume trading downwards.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
GBPUSD is trading at 1.3585; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.3620 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.3390. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.3685. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.3775.
XAGUSD, “Silver vs US Dollar”
XAGUSD is trading at 24.49; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 23.95 and then resume moving upwards to reach 25.65. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 22.25. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 21.35. To confirm further growth, the asset must break the rising channel’s upside border and fix above 25.25.
USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
USDCHF is trading at 0.9144; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.9155 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.9020. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.9210. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.9305. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the downside border of the Flag pattern and fix below 0.9115.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
The ECB minutes showed that the European Central Bank officials agreed that the recent and near-term forecasted rise in inflation was mainly due to temporary causes, which are likely to reduce in 2022. According to ECB President Christine Lagarde, the European Central Bank has “good reason” not to respond as forcefully as the Federal Reserve to rising consumer prices. Interest rates are not expected to rise in 2022.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.1317, 1.1305, 1.1288
Resistance levels: 1.1356, 1.1384, 1.1405
From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is bearish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it is better to consider sell trades from the resistance levels near the moving average. Buy trades can be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.1317, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a buyer’s initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1405 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will be renewed.
News feed for 2022.01.21:
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 14:30 (GMT+2).
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.3610
Prev Close: 1.3598
% chg. over the last day: -0.09%
Yesterday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the abolition of mandatory covid passports in England and the wearing of masks in public places. He also announced that Plan B, introduced due to the spread of the Omicron strain, would not be extended after January 25th, and England would return to Plan A. The government is no longer required to work from home.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.3581, 1.3551, 1.3479
Resistance levels: 1.3619, 1.3661, 1.3689, 1.3715
On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is bearish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are the first signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, sell deals are best to look at from the resistance level of 1.3619. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.3581, but only with additional confirmation in the form of buyers’ initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3661 resistance level and consolidates above, the bearish scenario will be broken.
News feed for 2022.01.21:
– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2).
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 114.32
Prev Close: 114.11
% chg. over the last day: -0.18%
Core consumer prices in Japan increased by 0.5% in December compared to last year. The nationwide core consumer price index, excluding food prices, showed growth for the fourth month in a row. The Japanese yen is strengthening now as a safe haven currency amid a massive sell-off in the US stock market.
The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. Buy deals are best to look at the lower time frames from the nearest support levels. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 113.99, but only with confirmation in the form of a sellers’ initiative, as the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is now aimed at decreasing the Japanese yen.
Alternative scenario: if the price fixes above 114.63, the uptrend will likely resume.
News feed for 2022.01.21:
– Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2).
The USD/CAD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.2506
Prev Close: 1.2504
% chg. over the last day: -0.02%
The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the oil prices and the dollar index. Oil quotes fell sharply by 2% on the background of sell-off on the US stock market and unexpected growth of weekly crude oil reserves in the USA. Taking into account the dollar index growth, USD/CAD quotes rose slightly by the end of the day.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.2476, 1.2427
Resistance levels: 1.2537, 1.2628, 1.2678, 1.2715
From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The price is now trading in a corridor with a range of 1.2476-1.2537. The price range has shifted slightly lower, but the price has remained trading within the corridor. The MACD indicator has become positive. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the level of 1.2476 on the lower time frames. It is better to consider sell deals from the upper border of the range of 1.2537.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2575 resistance level and fixes above, the downtrend is likely to be broken.
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
Gold surged over geopolitical tensions between the West and Russia over Ukraine.
Following a three-week-long sideways grind, the break above the triple top at 1830 indicates strong commitment from the buy-side. 1850 is the next level to clear, which would lead to November’s peak at 1877.
The RSI has shot into the overbought area, and some profit-taking could briefly drive the price lower. Buyers may see a pullback as an opportunity to join in. 1820 near the base of the recent rally is a key support in this case.
AUDUSD seeks support
The Australian dollar climbed back after the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% in December.
A surge above 0.7270 was the bulls’ attempt to initiate a reversal. As sellers covered their bets, the way might be open for a meaningful rebound. The follow-up correction met solid buying interest at 0.7170.
Sentiment would remain upbeat as long as price action stays above this key support. 0.7290 is an important hurdle and its breach could trigger a runaway rally towards 0.7420.
The index has given up all its gains from the late December rally and fell through the daily support at 34700. This bearish breakout could extend losses to the psychological level of 34000, a critical floor to prevent a deeper correction in the medium-term.
The RSI’s oversold situation may attract some buying interest. Nonetheless, the bulls will need to lift offers around 35500 in a show of force, in order to turn sentiment around.
Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com
The USDCAD pair sees an upward price movement within the large wave Ⓨ of the primary degree. Judging by the internal structure, wave Ⓨ takes the form of a simple 3-wave zigzag. This is marked by intermediate sub-waves (A)-(B)-(C).
The intermediate wave (A) in the form of an impulse, as well as the bearish correction (B) which is a minor zigzag A-B-C, seem fully complete.
Thus, since the construction of the intermediate correction (B) has ended, the intermediate wave (C) will be the next target.
The end of wave (C) could be near 1.312. At that level, intermediate impulses (A) and (C) will be equal.
According to an alternative scenario, within the framework of a global double zigzag consisting of primary sub-waves Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ, only the middle part is complete. Specifically, that is the primary intervening wave Ⓧ.
It is likely that the intervening wave Ⓧ has a complex triple zigzag formation. This consists of intermediate sub-waves (W)-(X)-(Y)-(X)-(Z).
Once the intermediate intervening wave (X) ends, prices could lower in the final wave (Z) towards the 1.223 area. At that level, primary intervening wave Ⓧ will be at 76.4% of actionary wave Ⓦ.
Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com
The Canadian dollar finds support from hotter-than-expected inflation. The US counterpart remained under pressure after it failed to hold onto 1.2500.
The RSI’s repeatedly oversold situation has attracted some buying interest. But timid rebounds have rather been opportunities for trend-followers to sell into strength.
1.2570 is a key resistance to lift if the bulls look for another chance. On the downside, a drop below 1.2450 would trigger a new round of sell-off towards the daily support at 1.2390.
The euro has struggled to lift offers around 0.8375 after a two-week-long consolidation. The subsequent break below 0.8340 has forced buyers to bail out, exacerbating the bearish mood. This former support has turned into a fresh resistance.
A bearish MA cross indicates an acceleration to the downside. The pair is now heading towards February 2020’s lows near 0.8290. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound.
USOIL seeks support
WTI crude continued upward after the IEA warned inventories in OECD countries were at their lowest levels.
The rally may accelerate in the medium-term after the bulls clear last October’s high at 85.00. However, the RSI has shot into the overbought area on the daily chart.
Bearish divergence on the hourly time frame suggests a slowdown in the short-term momentum. Price action could be due for a pullback. 84.70 is the first support and 88.00 is the resistance when the price bounces back.
Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com
As we can see in the H4 chart, USDCHF is trading below the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating a possible descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to test 3/8, break it, and then continue falling to reach the support at 2/8. However, this scenario may be cancelled if the price tests and breaks 5/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may grow towards the resistance at 7/8.
In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue trading downwards.
XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
In the H4 chart, XAUUSD is trading above the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating an ascending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to break 6/8 and move upwards to reach the resistance at 8/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the support at 5/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may continue falling towards 3/8.
As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue growing.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset continues moving sideways. After forming several reversal patterns, including Hammer, close to the support level, USDCAD is reversing and may form a new correctional impulse. In this case, the upside target may be the resistance area at 1.2555. However, an alternative scenario implies that the asset may continue falling to reach 1.2410 without forming any corrections.
AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”
As we can see in the H4 chart, AUDUSD has formed a Harami reversal pattern near the support area. At the moment, the asset is reversing and may start a new growth. In this case, the upside target may be the resistance level at 0.7280. After testing the level, the price may break it and continue the ascending tendency. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may correct to reach 0.7205 first and then resume its uptrend.
USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
As we can see in the H4 chart, after testing the support area, the pair has formed several reversal patterns, for example, Hammer and Engulfing. At the moment, USDCHF may reverse in the form of a new rising wave towards the resistance level. In this case, the upside target may be at 0.9210. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may correct to reach 0.9125 before resuming its ascending tendency.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Germany’s consumer price index increased by 0.5% in December to 3.1% in annual terms. This is the highest level since 1993. At the same time, the ECB balance sheet continues to increase. Aggregate assets rose by another 20.7 billion euros. The ECB continues to stimulate the region’s economy actively. On Wednesday, German 10-year bond yields increased above 0% for the first time since 2019, providing support for the euro. Eurozone inflation data will be released today. Analysts expect consumer prices to remain at the same level.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.1320, 1.1305, 1.1288
Resistance levels: 1.1356, 1.1384, 1.1405
From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is bearish. The MACD indicator became inactive, with no signs of a reversal. Under such market conditions, it is better to consider sell trades from the resistance levels near the moving average. Buy trades can be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.1320 or 1.1305, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1405 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will be renewed.
News feed for 2022.01.20:
– German Producer price index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.3588
Prev Close: 1.3612
% chg. over the last day: +0.18%
The UK inflation rate increased from 5.1% to 5.4% in annual terms; it’s a 30-year high. The sharp rise in the CPI is due to higher prices for products made in British factories, energy prices, and rising food prices. Analysts believe that sufficiently sustainable indicators of economic activity and high inflation are likely to convince the Bank of England to raise rates by another 25 bps in February to 0.5%.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.3602, 1.3581, 1.3551, 1.3479
Resistance levels: 1.3661, 1.3689, 1.3715
On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bearish. The MACD indicator became inactive, with no signs of a reversal. Under such market conditions, sell deals are best to look at from the resistance level of 1.3661. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.3602, but only with additional confirmation in the form of buyers’ initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3661 resistance level and consolidates above, the bearish scenario will be broken.
There is no news feed for today.
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 114.58
Prev Close: 114.32
% chg. over the last day: -0.23%
Japan’s economic performance is improving despite an increase in Omicron disease. Exports increased by 17.5% in December compared with the previous year. Auto export growth accelerated to 17.5% from 4.1% in November. But despite the “reviving” tendencies of the Japanese economy, experts think that new restrictions, increase in raw material prices, and the stimulating policy of the Bank of Japan will lead to a JPY decline in the coming months.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 114.25, 113.99, 113.72
Resistance levels: 114.63, 115.04, 115.35, 115.64
The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The sellers managed to protect the priority change level. Buy deals are best to look at the lower time frames from the nearest support levels. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 114.63, but only with confirmation in the form of a sellers’ initiative, as the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is now aimed at decreasing the Japanese yen.
Alternative scenario: if the price fixes above 115.04, the uptrend will likely resume.
There is no news feed for today.
The USD/CAD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.2512
Prev Close: 1.2514
% chg. over the last day: +0.02%
The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the oil prices and the dollar index. The oil price is traded near its maximum, and the fundamental situation is now in favor of the oil price growth. Inflation in Canada increased to a new 30-year high of 4.8% in annual terms. This adds to analysts’ confidence that Canada’s central bank will raise its interest rate in the near term.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.2483, 1.2427
Resistance levels: 1.2558, 1.2628, 1.2678, 1.2715
From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The price is now trading in a corridor with a range of 1.2483-1.2558. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the level of 1.2483 on the lower time frames. It is better to consider sell deals from the upper border of the range of 1.2558.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2575 resistance level and fixes above, the downtrend is likely to be broken.
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
As we can see in the H4 chart, after an attempt to test and break 76.0% fibo, GBPUSD has started a new decline, which may transform into a proper descending wave towards the low at 1.3160. The key resistance and the next upside target are the high at 1.3834.
The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the current correctional downtrend. By now, the descending wave has reached 23.6% fibo and may later continue towards 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 1.3524, 1.3455, and 1.3385 respectively. The local resistance is the high at 1.3749.
EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”
As we can see in the H4 chart, EURJPY is moving upwards after divergence on MACD. In this case, the asset may fall to break the low at 127.38 and then continue trading downwards to reach the long-term 61.8% fibo at 126.40.
The H1 chart shows that the pair is falling; it has already reached 50.0% fibo and may later continue towards 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 129.00 and 128.39 respectively. The key resistance is the local high at 131.60.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
