InvestMacro

By Orbex

Gold seems to be forming a downward correction trend. This takes the form of a triple zigzag Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ of the primary degree.

Most likely, the four parts of this triple zigzag are already fully complete. We are now in the final actionary wave Ⓩ. It is likely that it will be simple in form and will take the form of a bearish zigzag (A)-(B)-(C).

Currently, the intermediate wave (A) and the bullish correction (B) in the form of a minor triple zigzag, have ended.

At the time of writing, we can notice a decrease in the last wave (C). This takes the form of an impulse consisting of minor sub-waves 1-2-3-4-5. The impulse decline could end near the level of 1721.96. That level was marked by the intervening wave (X), which is part of the primary wave Ⓧ.

In the second scenario, the intermediate correction wave (B) is still continuing its development. Most likely it could also take the form of a minor triple W-X-Y-X-Z zigzag.

We can assume that the decline in the minor intervening wave X has ended. Therefore the market could rise in the final actionary wave Z in the near future.

Most likely, the price will rise to the level of 1850.24, where the correction (B) will be at 76.4% of impulse (A).

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.1151; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.1195 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.1035. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.1395. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.1485.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD is trading at 1797.00; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1815.00 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1755.00. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1850.00. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1875.00.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is trading at 1.3408; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.3425 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.3195. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.3595. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.3685.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Orbex

USDJPY tests major resistance

The Japanese yen inched higher after January’s Tokyo CPI beat expectations.

The US dollar found support in the daily demand zone around 113.50. And that is a sign that upbeat sentiment in the medium-term remains intact.

A close above the psychological level of 115.00 attracted momentum traders and sped up the rebound. 115.60 at the origin of the January liquidation is key resistance. In fact, its breach could put the uptrend back on track.

The RSI’s overextension may cause a limited pullback with 114.50 as the closest support.

USOIL breaks to new high

Oil climbed amid fears of disruption as tensions between Russia and the West grew.

After a short-lived pause, WTI crude saw bids near a previous low at 82.00 which lies on the 20-day moving average. A break above the January peak at 87.80 indicates solid interest in keeping the rally in shape.

As the bulls’ run continued, more trend-followers would push the price to 89.00. An overbought RSI temporarily restrained the fever, and buyers could see a pullback towards 85.00 as an opportunity.

SPX 500 struggles for support

Upcoming US rate hike still weighs on equity markets. A tentative break below last October’s low (4300) has put the S&P 500 on the defense.

A bearish MA cross on the daily chart shows that sentiment could be deteriorating as price action struggles to stabilize. An oversold RSI led to a limited rebound as intraday sellers took profit.

Nonetheless, buyers should be wary of catching a falling knife, leaving the index vulnerable to another sell-off if it drops below 4230. 4490 is the first resistance to clear to initiate a recovery.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.1237
• Prev Close: 1.1144
• % chg. over the last day: -0.83%

The Euro is falling fast against the background of the strengthening USD index. The dollar is getting stronger as markets are pricing in 4-5 interest rate hikes this year, while the ECB doesn’t have plans to raise rates in 2022 and keeps pumping money into the region’s economy, despite the fact that inflation remains extremely high in Europe and there are only 25-30% of the gas reserves left.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1145
• Resistance levels: 1.1186, 1.1215, 1.1263, 1.1308

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is bearish. The selling pressure has increased, but now the price has reached the support level. Under such market conditions, it is better to consider sell trades after a small pullback, as the price has strongly deviated from the average values. With buy deals, it is necessary to be extremely careful now. It is possible now to look for buy deals on lower time frames, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1308 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will be renewed.

News feed for 2022.01.28:

• – Eurozone French GDP (q/q) at 08:30 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Spanish GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
• – Germany GDP (q/q) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – US PCE price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3460
• Prev Close: 1.3380
• % chg. over the last day: -0.60%

Analysts forecast that the Bank of England will raise interest rates to 0.5% at its next meeting in February. The Bank of England will continue to raise rates at least until the summer. The current forecast is that the rate will reach 1% by June 2022. If these forecasts are confirmed, the British pound will get significant support. At the moment, the major currencies are declining on the back of the dollar index growth.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3352
• Resistance levels: 1.3415, 1.3468, 1.3524, 1.3583, 1.3633, 1.3662

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bearish. The MACD is negative, but there is divergence towards buy deals. Under such market conditions, sell deals are best to look at from the resistance levels of 1.3468. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.3352, but only with an additional confirmation in the form of buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3554 resistance level and consolidates above, the bearish scenario will be broken.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 114.61
• Prev Close: 115.35
• % chg. over the last day: +0.64%

The monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is now aimed at making the Japanese Yen cheaper because of the maximum economic stimulus, while the Fed is tightening monetary policy. Tokyo core consumer prices (excluding food and fuel prices) rose by 0.2% in January from a year earlier, above economists’ average estimate of 0.3%.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 115.05, 114.77, 114.37
• Resistance levels: 115.51, 115.73

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. But the price has now deviated strongly from the average values and reached the resistance level, so it is better to wait for a small pullback. It is best to buy from the support level of 114.77 or 115.05 on the lower time frames. Sell positions are better to look at lower time frames, but only with confirmation in the form of a sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below 114.37, the uptrend will likely be broken.

News feed for 2022.01.28:

• – Japan Tokyo core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2659
• Prev Close: 1.2741
• % chg. over the last day: +0.64%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the oil prices and the dollar index. Oil was stable yesterday, while the dollar index significantly strengthened. As a result, the USD/CAD quotes jumped.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2671, 1.2613, 1.2586, 1.2506
• Resistance levels: 1.2745, 1.2792

From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. USD/CAD quotes are growing against the growth of the dollar index and do not take into account the increase in oil prices. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support levels closer to the moving average. The level of 1.2613 is the best for long deals, but the price can also react to 1.2671. Now the price has reached the resistance level, so on the lower time frames, traders can look for sell trades, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2577 support level and fixes below, the downtrend is likely to resume.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

by JustForex

The US statistical data was positive yesterday. The number of new jobless claims in the USA was 260,000, while analysts expected 265,000. The US GDP grew by 6.9% in the fourth quarter, while the growth by 5.5% was expected. The dollar index significantly strengthened yesterday, which led to the decrease of other currencies against the dollar. At the same time, stock indices fell despite good reports from tech companies. The Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.02%, the S&P 500 index (US500) fell by 0.54%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) lost 1.4% at the close of the stock market.

Intel Corp. stock prices decreased by 7% yesterday. One of the world’s top computer component makers cut net income by 21% in the fourth quarter of 2021 but increased revenue by 3%. Apple reported record sales over the holiday season despite a global shortage of computer chips. The company’s stock jumped by 5% on the postmarket. Meanwhile, shares of MasterCard and Visa rose on reports. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the payment companies boosted net and adjusted earnings, as well as increased revenue.

Strategists at investment bank Goldman Sachs recommend investors buy out the drawdowns now. “Any further strong weakness in the index should be seen as a buying opportunity,” the bank’s analysts, led by Peter Oppenheimer, said on Wednesday. In addition, the bank does not believe the correction will deepen into a bear market.

On Tuesday, stock indices in Europe rose at the close of trading amid positive company reports. The German DAX (DE30) gained 0.42%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.6%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 1%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) jumped by 1.13%. France’s economic growth in 2021 was the strongest in 52 years at 7%.

According to Gazprom, less than a quarter of the gas pumped during the summer season remains in underground gas storage facilities (UGSF) in Europe. As of Jan. 25, withdrawal reached 75.9%. According to the analyst, Europe is having a fairly mild winter so far, which is why it has been able to stretch the gas available in its underground storage facilities.

Britain and the EU are working out sanctions against new Russian gas projects in case Russia attacks Ukraine. Russia is one of the world’s largest oil and gas producers, but its energy sector relies on joint ventures with foreign companies, where financing and technology transfer may be limited.

Oil prices remain at $87 to $89 a barrel. Prices have risen about 15% since the start of the new year amid geopolitical tensions over Ukraine and threats to the United Arab Emirates by Yemeni Hussites. Analysts expect supply to remain limited as OPEC+ will maintain the existing policy of gradual increase in production, so investors should not expect a decrease in quotes soon.

Against the background of the growth of the dollar index, the quotes of gold and silver are rapidly falling. This year, the precious metals have no fundamental support, as rising interest rates usually lead to rising government bond yields and the dollar index, which will negatively impact gold and silver.

Asian stock indices are mostly rising on Friday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose 2.09% from the open, Australia’s ASX 200 gained 2.19%, but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 1.13%. China’s regulator said China and the US were making progress on rules for Chinese firms registered in the United States. Main market quotes:

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,326.51 −23.42 (−0.54%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,160.78 −7.31 (−0.021%)

DAX (DE40) 15,524.27 +64.88 (+0.42%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,554.31 +84.53 (+1.13%)

USD Index 97.23 +1.29 (+1.34%)

• – Japan Tokyo core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
• – Australia Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone French GDP (q/q) at 08:30 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Spanish GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
• – Germany GDP (q/q) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – US PCE price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Orbex

The current structure of the EURUSD pair suggests the construction of a downward correction pattern. This takes the form of a triple Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ zigzag of the primary degree.

It seems that two months ago the bearish wave Ⓨ ended, which took the form of a double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y) of the intermediate degree. Then prices moved sideways within the primary intervening wave Ⓧ . This took the form of an intermediate triple three (W)-(X)-(Y)-(X)-(Z).

In the near future, an increase in the sub-wave (Z) to the level of 1.1485 is likely. After reaching this level, market participants can expect the depreciation of EURUSD in the primary wave Ⓩ.

Another option shows that the intervening wave Ⓧ could have already bent. In this case, it is a double zigzag of the intermediate degree.

Therefore, there is an expectation for a descending primary wave Ⓩ to form in the upcoming trading days. This actionary wave is likely to take a complex formation of a double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y).

The end of the potential double zigzag will likely be around the level of 1.0939. At that level, primary wave Ⓩ will be at 50% of wave Ⓨ.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

By Orbex

USDCAD breaks higher

The Canadian dollar slipped after the BOC kept interest rates unchanged. Its US counterpart found support at 1.2560 after a brief pullback.

An oversold RSI attracted some bargain hunters. The current rebound is a sign that there is a strong interest in pushing for a bullish reversal. 1.2700 is a key supply zone as it coincides with the 30-day moving average.

A breakout would definitely turn sentiment around and trigger a runaway rally. In turn, this sets the daily resistance at 1.2810 as the next target.

NZDUSD continues lower

The New Zealand dollar steadied after the Q4 CPI beat expectations.

However, the pair is still in bearish territory after it broke below the lower end (0.6750) of the flag consolidation from the daily time frame. The RSI’s oversold situation brought in a buying-the-dips crowd around 0.6660 but its breach indicates a lack of buying interest.

The kiwi is now testing November 2020’s low at 0.6600. The bears could be waiting to fade the next bounce with 0.6700 as a fresh resistance.

XAUUSD pulls back for support

Gold tumbled after the US Fed signaled it may raise interest rates in March. The rally stalled at 1853 and a break below the resistance-turned-support at 1830 flushed some buyers out.

1810 at the base of the previous bullish breakout is a second line of defense. The short-term uptrend may still be intact as long as the metal stays above this key support.

A deeper correction would drive the price down to the daily support at 1785. The bulls need a rebound above 1838 to regain control of price action.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming a Hanging Man reversal pattern not far from the resistance level, XAUUSD is reversing and may continue forming its correctional impulse. In this case, the downside correctional target is the support area at 1800.00. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may grow to reach 1830.00 and continue its ascending tendency without any corrections towards the support area.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, NZDUSD has formed an Engulfing. At the moment, the asset is reversing and may form a new descending impulse towards the support level. In this case, the downside target is at 0.6570. After that, the asset may break this level and continue moving downwards. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may correct to reach 0.6650 first and then resume trading to the downside.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, GBPUSD has formed an Engulfing reversal pattern during the pullback. At the moment, the pair is reversing in the form of a new descending impulse. In this case, the downside target may be at 1.3380. After testing the support level, the market may break it and continue trading downwards. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may correct to reach 1.3480 before resuming the downtrend.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

In the H4 chart, after breaking the 200-day Moving Average, USDCHF is trading above it, thus indicating a possible ascending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to break 7/8 and continue growing to reach the resistance at 8/8. However, this scenario may be cancelled if the price tests and breaks 6/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may fall towards the support at 5/8.

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue trading upwards.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, after breaking 5/8 to the downside, XAUUSD is back to consolidating. In this case, the price is expected to break the support at 4/8 and move downwards to reach the downside border of this range at 3/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance at 5/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may resume growing towards 6/8.

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue falling.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.1300
• Prev Close: 1.1241
• % chg. over the last day: -0.52%

With the Fed tightening its monetary policy, the dollar index is strengthening, which negatively affects the European currency. The ECB is not going to raise rates in 2022, so the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB is now looking in different directions. Fundamentally, a scenario with a decrease in EUR/USD quotes is predicted for the coming months.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1186, 1.1145
• Resistance levels: 1.1244, 1.1263, 1.1308

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is bearish. The selling pressure has increased, but the MACD indicator is still signaling divergence on the higher timeframes. Under such market conditions, it is better to consider sell trades from the resistance levels of 1.1244 or 1.1263. There are no optimal entry points for buy trades now. It is necessary to wait for the price to reach the nearest support level.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1308 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will be renewed.

News feed for 2022.01.27:

• – US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3497
• Prev Close: 1.3465
• % chg. over the last day: -0.24%

The British pound is also declining against a rising dollar index. Still, unlike the euro, the pound has fundamental support in the form of monetary policy from the Bank of England, which is going to raise its interest rate for the second time. With the IMF predicting the UK economy to grow in 2022, the GBP is likely to be more stable if the dollar strengthens.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3431, 1.3352
• Resistance levels: 1.3491, 1.3524, 1.3583, 1.3633, 1.3662

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bearish. The MACD is negative again, but there is divergence towards buy deals. Under such market conditions, sell deals are best to look at from the resistance levels of 1.3491. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.3431, but only with an additional confirmation in the form of buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3583 resistance level and consolidates above, the bearish scenario will be broken.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 113.84
• Prev Close: 114.66
• % chg. over the last day: +0.72%

The monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is now aimed at making the Japanese Yen cheaper because of the maximum economic stimulus, while the Fed is tightening monetary policy. After the Fed meeting yesterday, the USD/JPY jumped on the back of the dollar index rise. Analysts expect the uptrend to continue in the coming months.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 114.37, 113.99, 113.76
• Resistance levels: 114.77, 115.03, 115.35

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair has changed to bullish. But the price has now reached the resistance level, so it is better to wait for a small pullback. It is best to buy from the support level of 114.37 or 113.99 on the lower timeframes. Sell positions are better to consider from the resistance level of 115.03, but only with confirmation in the form of sellers’ initiative, because fundamentally, the Japanese Yen will be getting cheaper.

Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below 113.76, the uptrend will likely be broken.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2624
• Prev Close: 1.2663
• % chg. over the last day: +0.31%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the oil prices and the dollar index. On Wednesday, oil rose and reached $90 a barrel for the first time in seven years, helped by tight supply and rising political tensions between Russia and Ukraine, raising fears of further disruptions in an already tight market. The Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged but said the economic slowdown had passed and the economy is ready for the first rate hike at the next meeting. According to the forecasts, inflation will remain higher than previously predicted. The Bank of Canada expects consumer price growth to average 4.2% in 2022, up from the 3.4% forecast in October, and fall to 2.3% in 2023.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2671, 1.2613, 1.2586, 1.2506
• Resistance levels: 1.2754, 1.2813

From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support levels closer to the moving average. Sell trades are best to consider from the resistance levels of higher time frames, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2556 support level and fixes below, the downtrend is likely to resume.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.