COT Currency Speculators raise their Euro bets into bullish territory

January 15, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 11th 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data is the bounce back into bullish territory for the Euro in the currency futures contracts. Euro speculators boosted their bets for a fourth consecutive week this week and brought the overall speculator position into its first bullish standing in the past nine weeks (the current net position is now +6,005 contracts). Euro bets had spent from March 2020 through September 2021 in bullish territory with the Euro price reaching as high as 1.2350 before faltering. Speculator bets dropped into bearish territory in October as the euro was in the middle of a downtrend that reached a low of approximately 1.12 on November 24th. Since then, the euro has climbed back above 1.14 and the speculator positions have tipped their toes back into bullish territory. Could a bullish trend change follow?

Joining the Euro (7,559 contracts) with positive changes this week were the Swiss franc (1,869 contracts), British pound sterling (10,005 contracts), New Zealand dollar (241 contracts), Canadian dollar (3,649 contracts), Russian ruble (2,288 contracts), Bitcoin (227 contracts) and the Mexican peso (5,039 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-1,186 contracts), yen (-25,263 contracts), Australian dollar (-2,120 contracts) and the Brazil real (-9,736 contracts).


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Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-11-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
USD Index 57,218 83 37,892 91 -44,146 1 6,254 85
EUR 682,293 77 6,005 37 -33,390 66 27,385 20
GBP 200,493 39 -29,166 53 38,032 52 -8,866 37
JPY 234,005 78 -87,525 13 108,392 90 -20,867 5
CHF 42,713 18 -7,660 57 15,599 48 -7,939 40
CAD 138,571 22 -7,376 44 1,996 58 5,380 40
AUD 185,453 72 -91,486 0 103,609 96 -12,123 23
NZD 42,066 28 -8,604 57 10,304 46 -1,700 32
MXN 127,155 15 -4,451 25 1,238 73 3,213 57
RUB 44,981 45 9,617 36 -11,074 60 1,457 74
BRL 31,087 29 -10,812 54 10,848 48 -36 66
Bitcoin 10,855 58 -377 95 -182 0 559 26

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,892 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,186 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,078 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.2 3.0 14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.9 80.2 3.7
– Net Position: 37,892 -44,146 6,254
– Gross Longs: 45,872 1,741 8,396
– Gross Shorts: 7,980 45,887 2,142
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.7 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.1 1.2 84.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.5 -6.2 18.5

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 6,005 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,559 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,554 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.0 57.0 11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 61.9 7.7
– Net Position: 6,005 -33,390 27,385
– Gross Longs: 204,361 389,191 79,993
– Gross Shorts: 198,356 422,581 52,608
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.8 66.3 19.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.0 -6.4 -11.1

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -29,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.2 72.1 11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.8 53.1 15.8
– Net Position: -29,166 38,032 -8,866
– Gross Longs: 30,506 144,550 22,846
– Gross Shorts: 59,672 106,518 31,712
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.0 52.2 37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.0 -9.3 12.4

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -87,525 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -25,263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,262 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.6 81.1 7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.0 34.7 16.5
– Net Position: -87,525 108,392 -20,867
– Gross Longs: 22,364 189,708 17,631
– Gross Shorts: 109,889 81,316 38,498
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.7 90.0 4.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.5 8.1 -16.8

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,660 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,529 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.7 65.3 23.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.6 28.8 42.3
– Net Position: -7,660 15,599 -7,939
– Gross Longs: 4,571 27,897 10,124
– Gross Shorts: 12,231 12,298 18,063
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.6 48.4 40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.4 -6.3 -2.8

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,025 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.0 43.0 22.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.3 41.5 18.3
– Net Position: -7,376 1,996 5,380
– Gross Longs: 44,284 59,569 30,707
– Gross Shorts: 51,660 57,573 25,327
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.4 57.6 40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.1 -5.4 2.3

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -91,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,366 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.7 81.1 9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 56.0 25.2 16.5
– Net Position: -91,486 103,609 -12,123
– Gross Longs: 12,383 150,375 18,406
– Gross Shorts: 103,869 46,766 30,529
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.2 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 96.2 22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.5 6.6 5.9

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,604 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 241 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,845 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.1 65.7 7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.5 41.2 11.1
– Net Position: -8,604 10,304 -1,700
– Gross Longs: 10,960 27,650 2,979
– Gross Shorts: 19,564 17,346 4,679
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.8 46.3 32.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -32.3 30.2 -4.3

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,039 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.8 52.8 5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.3 51.9 2.4
– Net Position: -4,451 1,238 3,213
– Gross Longs: 53,194 67,173 6,301
– Gross Shorts: 57,645 65,935 3,088
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 25.4 73.3 56.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 23.6 -25.0 19.4

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,812 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,736 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.5 66.9 8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 58.3 32.0 8.9
– Net Position: -10,812 10,848 -36
– Gross Longs: 7,312 20,801 2,721
– Gross Shorts: 18,124 9,953 2,757
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.1 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.2 47.9 66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.1 -5.6 14.4

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Russian Ruble Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 9,617 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,329 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.7 52.0 5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.3 76.6 2.0
– Net Position: 9,617 -11,074 1,457
– Gross Longs: 19,191 23,402 2,357
– Gross Shorts: 9,574 34,476 900
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.2 60.2 74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.5 10.4 -14.6

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -604 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.9 3.2 13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 77.4 4.9 8.1
– Net Position: -377 -182 559
– Gross Longs: 8,025 347 1,441
– Gross Shorts: 8,402 529 882
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.9 13.2 25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 30.9 -83.7 -9.9

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.