InvestMacro

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.1440; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.1395 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.1525. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the support level. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.1275. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.1185.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is trading at 114.62; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 115.05 and then resume moving downwards to reach 113.35. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 116.15. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 117.05.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is trading at 1.2500; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.2555 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.2365. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.2645. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.2735.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Having completed the ascending wave at 1.1452, EURUSD is consolidating below this level. Possibly, the pair may grow to reach the short-term upside target at 1.1457 and then start a new correction towards 1.1363. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 1.1506.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is still growing and may soon reach 1.3722. After that, the instrument may correct towards 1.3627 and then start another growth with the target at 1.3760.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is consolidating around 74.66. Possibly, today the pair may break the range to the downside and resume trading downwards with the target at 74.07. Later, the market may correct to return to 74.66 and then form a new descending structure to reach 74.00.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After completing the descending wave at 114.90 and breaking it to the downside, USDJPY is still falling towards 114.16. Later, the market may start another correction with the target at 115.60.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Having finished the descending wave at 0.9130, USDCHF is expected to correct towards 0.9181. After that, the instrument may resume trading downwards with the target at 0.9090.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has completed the ascending wave at 0.7288. Today, the pair may correct to reach 0.7212 and then resume growing with the target at 0.7333.

BRENT

Brent has completed the ascending structure at 85.00 and may later correct towards 80.50. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure to reach 90.00 and then start another correction with the target at 75.00.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold continues growing towards 1830.30. After that, the instrument may correct to reach 1800.00 and then start another growth with the target at 1900.00.

S&P 500

After finishing the ascending structure at 4747.0, the S&P index is correcting towards 4698.9 and may later resume growing with the target at 4845.5.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.1366
• Prev Close: 1.1441
• % chg. over the last day: +0.66%

Yesterday, at the end of the day, the EUR/USD quotes grew sharply against the background of the sharp decline in the USD index. However, investors should understand that this growth of the Euro is temporary, as the monetary policy of the US central bank and the ECB are now almost on different poles. The ECB keeps on actively stimulating the economy, though at a slower pace. The US Federal Reserve is already planning 3-4 interest rate hikes from March of this year, which gives clear support to the dollar index.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1395, 1.1369, 1.1330, 1.1305, 1.1288, 1.1271
• Resistance levels: 1.1436, 1.1535, 1.1613, 1.1667, 1.1717

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is bullish. The European currency is strengthening rapidly. However, the price is now strongly deviating from its averages, so for good entry longs, traders should expect a corrective movement downwards. Under such market conditions, it is better to consider sell deals after the price returns under the level of 1.1436, but with additional confirmation. Buy trades can be considered on the lower time frames from the support level 1.1395, but only with additional confirmation in the form of the buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.1330 support level and fixes below, the mid-term uptrend will be broken.

News feed for 2022.01.13:

• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Member Brainard’s Speech at 17:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3635
• Prev Close: 1.3700
• % chg. over the last day: +0.48%

The British pound is strengthening for two main reasons. Firstly, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate in December and is likely to raise it again in February. Secondly, the 3-month Libor rates on the interbank lending market are two times higher than similar rates on the dollar index, and this difference is increasing now. Analysts believe the British pound is aiming for 1.38 per US dollar since that is the price area from which the pound was falling when investors were disappointed by the Bank of England’s reluctance to raise the interest rate last fall.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3667, 1.3641, 1.3581, 1.3551
• Resistance levels: 1.3708, 1.3753, 1.3786

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bullish. The price is steadily growing, but the MACD indicator is still signaling divergence on higher time frames. Under such market conditions, traders should consider buy positions from the support level of 1.3667 or 1.3641 but only with additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative. Sell trades can be considered on the lower time frames from the resistance level of 1.3708, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.3581 support level and consolidates below, the bearish scenario will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 115.28
• Prev Close: 114.62
• % chg. over the last day: -0.57%

Statistics suggest that business sentiment among Japan’s working class is increasing, while confidence among retailers is also rising ahead of the holidays. The economy is picking up thanks to a relatively low number of coronavirus cases. But it should be noted that the monetary policy of the central bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve are now diametrically opposed, so the strengthening of the Japanese yen should be associated with a temporary decline in the dollar index. The analysts see growth in USDJPY quotes in 2022.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 114.40, 114.18, 113.95
• Resistance levels: 114.94, 115.09, 115.35, 115.64

The global USD/JPY currency pair trend has changed to bearish. The price confidently broke through the priority change level and consolidated lower. The MACD indicator has become negative without any signs of reversal. Buy deals are best to look from the support levels on the lower time frames near the daily support level. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 114.94, but only with confirmation in the form of a sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price fixes above 115.35, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2570
• Prev Close: 1.2505
• % chg. over the last day: -0.52%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the oil prices and the dollar index. Oil prices continue to rise, while the dollar index declined sharply on US CPI news yesterday. As a result, the Canadian dollar has strengthened substantially. Once the Fed starts to raise interest rates and/or reduce the Fed balance sheet, the dollar index will start to strengthen, which will cause oil prices to fall and the USD/CAD to rise.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2502
• Resistance levels: 1.2558, 1.2628, 1.2678, 1.2715

From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The price is steadily declining. But the MACD indicator began to signal a divergence on several timeframes. Under such market conditions it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from 1.2503. It is best to look for sell deals from the resistance levels around the moving average or from the descending local trend line.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2678 resistance level and fixes above, the downtrend will likely to be broken.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Orbex

In the long term, the formation of the NZDUSD currency pair hints at a cycle zigzag pattern, which consists of three main sub-waves a-b-c.

On the current chart, we see the second half of a major correction wave b of the cycle degree. It seems to be complete, taking the form of a primary triple zigzag Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ.

After the completion of the correction pattern, the market turned around, and we saw the development of the initial part of the cycle wave c. This wave is likely to take the form of a simple 5-wave impulse, as shown in the chart, consisting of five primary sub-waves ①-②-③-④-⑤.

The first two primary sub-waves ①-② have ended. The end of wave ③ could be at the previous maximum of 0.722.

Alternatively, the formation of wave b of the cycle degree can continue. Therefore, the primary wave Ⓩ could be a triple (W)-(X)-(Y)-(X)-(Z) zigzag of the intermediate degree.

The first four parts of the intermediate pattern have visibly ended. Then the price could begin to decline in the final intermediate wave (Z).

Wave (Z) could take the form of a minor triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z.

The fall of the exchange rate in the alternative could reach the level of 0.640. At that level, primary wave Ⓩ will be at 161.8% of primary wave Ⓨ.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

By Orbex

GBPUSD rally gains traction

The US dollar fell after the Fed Chair’s remark that no decision has been made on quantitative tightening. The pair showed some weakness near the daily resistance at 1.3600.

The RSI’s double top in the overbought area led some buyers to take chips off the table. However, a follow-up close above the resistance indicates that the bulls are still in control of the direction.

Sentiment remains upbeat and 1.3700 from the start of the November sell-off would be the next target. 1.3570 is a fresh support in case of a pullback.

NZDUSD bounces off major support

The New Zealand dollar recovers as risk appetite returns following Jerome Powell’s testimony.

The previous rebound towards 0.6830 met strong selling pressure. Its failure to achieve a new high suggests that the bearish bias lingers. The drop below 0.6740 further weighs on the kiwi. A bounce could still be an opportunity to sell into strength.

The bulls need to clear 0.6835 in order to turn the tide, and 0.6730 is a fresh support. A bearish breakout may test the base of December’s bounce at 0.6700.

EURJPY maintains uptrend

The euro recoups losses as traders dump safe-haven currencies. The fall below 130.80 has shaken out some weak hands.

Nonetheless, the upward bias remains intact after the single currency saw solid demand over the psychological level of 130.00. The RSI’s oversold situation compounded the attractiveness of the discount.

A rise above 131.60 would bring in momentum traders and clear the path for an extended rally to 132.55 near last October’s peak. 129.10 is the second line of defence in case of a deeper retracement.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, GBPUSD has reached 61.8% fibo after convergence on MACD and may boost its growth towards 76.0% fibo at 1.3672. After that, the pair may start a new correction to the downside before attacking the high at 1.3824. The key support is at 1.3160.

The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of divergence on MACD and potential correctional targets – 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 1.3554, 1.3482, 1.3422, and 1.3364 respectively.

EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, having completed a slight correction, EURJPY is moving upwards; it may soon update the local high and continue growing to reach 76.0% fibo at 132.02. After testing the high, the asset may start a new correction to the downside before attacking the high at 133.48. The support remains at the low at 127.38.

The H1 chart shows that the pair may is growing towards the local high at 131.60. If the asset fails to break it, the price may start a new short-term decline to reach 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 129.99, 129.49, and 128.99 respectively.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY has rebounded from the resistance at 8/8. In this case, the price is expected to break 7/8 and correct downwards to reach the support at 6/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 8/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and grow towards the resistance at +2/8.

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue falling.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

In the H4 chart, USDCAD is trading below the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating a descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to test 1/8, break it, and continue falling towards the support at 0/8. Still, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance at 2/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may correct upwards to reach 4/8.

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue trading downwards.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.1322
• Prev Close: 1.1368
• % chg. over the last day: +0.41%

The head of the Bundesbank said yesterday that inflation would remain elevated in the country for longer than initially expected. At the same time, ECB officials have a different view and believe that inflation will even decrease in the region this year. Over the past week, the ECB’s balance sheet increased by 6.9 billion euros, much less than the previous week’s 53 billion euros. The reduction in the balance of the ECB has a positive effect on the strength of the European currency. However, in the long term, a rate hike by the Fed will provide strong support for the dollar index, which will be reflected in the EURUSD quotes by a fall.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1330, 1.1305, 1.1288, 1.1271
• Resistance levels: 1.1369, 1.1385, 1.1436, 1.1535, 1.1613, 1.1667, 1.1717

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD trend on the hour time frame is bullish. The European currency is strengthening. But the price is now strongly deviating from its averages, while the MACD is pointing to the divergence, traders should expect a corrective movement downwards. Under such market conditions, it is better to consider sell deals from the 1.1369 resistance level, but with additional confirmation. Buy trades can be considered on the lower time frames from the support level 1.1330, but only with additional confirmation in the form of the buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.1288 support level and fixes below, the mid-term uptrend will be broken.

News feed for 2022.01.12:

• – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3570
• Prev Close: 1.3633
• % chg. over the last day: +0.46%

The British pound is strengthening for two main reasons. Firstly, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate in December and is likely to raise it again in February. Secondly, the 3-month LIBOR rates on the interbank lending market are two times higher than similar rates on the dollar index.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3601, 1.3581, 1.3551, 1.3528, 1.3396, 1.3352, 1.3257, 1.3220
• Resistance levels: 1.3685

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bullish. The price is rising steadily, but the MACD indicator is still signaling divergence. Under such market conditions, traders should consider buy positions from the support level 1.3601 or 1.3581 but only with additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.3685.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.3528 support level and consolidates below, the bearish scenario will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 115.15
• Prev Close: 115.29
• % chg. over the last day: +0.12%

Japan’s central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda said today that the economy is on the road to recovery, accompanied by rising inflation. At the same time, Mr. Kuroda added that consumer inflation is likely to accelerate gradually due to rising energy costs and the expected increase in demand. The US consumer inflation data will be released today. Investors believe that inflation will exceed 7% in annual terms, which might lead to a sharp upward movement of the USD index, which in turn will be reflected in the USDJPY price growth.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 115.09, 113.74
• Resistance levels: 115.34, 115.64, 116.08, 116.50

The global USD/JPY currency pair trend is bullish. But the price is trading near the priority change level. The MACD indicator has become inactive. It is best to look for buy deals from the support levels on the lower time frames, near the priority change level. Sell positions are better to look from the resistance level of 115.64, but only with confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below 115.09, the uptrend will likely be broken.

News feed for 2022.01.12:

• – Japan BOJ Gov Kuroda’s Speech at 03:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2675
• Prev Close: 1.2571
• % chg. over the last day: -0.82%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the oil prices and the dollar index. Yesterday, oil prices jumped 4% ahead of weekly data on inventories and US consumer price index data. The rise in oil prices strengthens the Canadian dollar, which leads to a decline in USD/CAD quotes.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2502
• Resistance levels: 1.2628, 1.2689, 1.2715, 1.2792, 1.2824, 1.2903, 1.2951

From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The price is steadily declining. But the MACD indicator began to signal a divergence. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from 1.2503. It is best to look for sell deals from the resistance levels around the moving average or from the descending local trend line.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2689 resistance level and fixes above, the downtrend is likely to be broken.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Orbex

The formation of the GBPUSD currency pair suggests the development of a large intervening wave x of the cycle degree. This most likely takes the form of a triple Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ zigzag of the primary degree.

Most likely, the first four parts of this construction, that is the primary sub-waves Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ, have already completed their pattern fully. It is likely that the growth in the second intervening wave Ⓧ has come to an end. It looks fully formed with a double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y) of the intermediate degree.

Thus, if the intervening wave Ⓧ is completed, then shortly a price decrease is expected in the final primary wave Ⓩ. It will probably take the form of an intermediate zigzag (A)-(B)-(C).

The end of the market decline in this wave could reach the level of 1.297. At that level, wave Ⓩ will be at 76.4% of primary wave Ⓨ.

An alternative scenario shows the primary double Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ zigzag ended. This could indicate the beginning of the development of the cycle actionary wave y.

In the next coming trading weeks, we can anticipate the development of primary sub-waves Ⓧ-Ⓩ, as shown in the chart.

The end of the wave Ⓧ is possible in the area of the 1.343 level. Then wave Ⓩ will most likely strive for equality with wave Ⓨ and could end around the 1.386 mark.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

by JustForex

In his speech to the US Senate, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell calmed down a little concerned about monetary policy tightening. Mr. Powell confirmed that the Fed plans to begin policy normalization, including ending bond purchases, raising rates, and allowing bonds on the balance sheet to mature later this year.

Key points from Powell’s speech:

At the end of the day, the S&P 500 stock index (US500) increased by 0.92%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) added 0.51%, and the Nasdaq technology index (US100) jumped by 1.4%.

Investors know that the most powerful leverage the Fed can pull right now is to start cutting its balance sheet by selling bonds. Reducing the balance sheet will immediately have a negative effect on the stock market. However, while the excess dollar liquidity in the US banking system is still high and exceeds $1.5 trillion, investment banks and hedge funds will buy stock market drawdowns and move major indices up.

The recent pullback in the tech sector was precisely due to concerns that the Fed would be more hawkish and more aggressive in its policy going forward. However, Jerome Powell calmed the markets in his speech yesterday, which caused the tech sector to rise yesterday.

Analysts at JPMorgan believe that four 0.25% rate hikes will have little impact on the economy.

Yesterday, Fed member Bostick indicated that he expected three rate hikes in 2022, with risks pointing to a fourth increase due to the possibility of higher inflation. March is the right time for the first hike.

The US consumer inflation data will be released today. Investors are confident that inflation will exceed 7% in annual terms, which will be a record high in the last 40 years.

In the US, 1.35 million cases of coronavirus infection were detected overnight – an all-time pandemic record.

On Tuesday, major European stock indexes increased on positive statistics and strong corporate reports. The British FTSE 100 (UK100) gained 0.6%, German DAX (DE30) added 1.1%, French CAC 40 (FR40) jumped by 0.92%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.66%, and Italian FTSE MIB added 0.68%. In December, the UK retail sales were well above pre-crisis levels, despite a new rise in COVID-19 in the country. Meanwhile, Spain’s industrial production jumped by 4.8% in annual terms in November, the highest since June 2021.

Oil jumped 4% ahead of weekly US inventory data. Oil buyers are betting on supply cuts due to expected demand. There is also information that hedge funds are buying oil in anticipation of sanctions against Russia. Large speculators have bought more than 100 million barrels in three weeks. The US Department of Energy predicts that the price of Brent crude will drop to $75/bbl in 2022 and $68/bbl in 2023.

Gold increased for the third day in a row on expectations of higher inflation in the US. Investors are betting that US consumer inflation will be above 7% and are buying gold as a hedge against inflation. However, it’s should be noted that gold failed its hedging mission several times last year since the dollar index and US Treasury yields, which have an inverse correlation to precious metals, rose on expectations of rising rates.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,713.07 +42.78 (+0.92%)

Dow Jones (US30) 36,252.02 +183.15 (+0.51%)

DAX (DE40) 15,941.81 +173.54 (+1.10%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,491.37 +46.12 (+0.62%)

USD Index 95.60 -0.39 (-0.41%)

• – Japan BOJ Gov Kuroda’s Speech at 03:00 (GMT+2);
• – China Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
• – China Producer Price Index (q/q) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.