Forex and Currency News

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 138

Currency Speculators drop Euro bets into bearish territory on interest rates & low growth

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 3rd 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data was the continued drop in speculator bets for European common currency futures contracts. Euro speculators reduced their bets for the third straight week this week and have now trimmed the net position by a total of -45,438 contracts over this three-week period. This decreasing sentiment among speculators accelerated this week with a large drop of -28,579 contracts and knocked the net contract level back into a bearish position for the first time since the beginning of October 2021.

The fundamental backdrop for the euro is one of weak growth and low interest rates compared to many of the other major currency countries. The Eurozone GDP for the first quarter of 2022 amounted to just 0.2 percent growth following a fourth quarter of 2021 growth reading of 0.3 percent. The war in Ukraine combined with surging inflation and weakening consumer demand has some banks believing a GDP contraction could be on the horizon while others see parity in the euro versus the US dollar as inevitable. Eurozone interest rates are forecasted to rise this year but they have been behind their major currency counterparts. The US, Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand have all raised their benchmark interest rates over the past quarter and look likely to see more over the year, possibly widening the interest rate differential even more if the European Central Bank does not act.

This week was a very rare week when all the currencies we cover had lower speculator bets including the Euro (-28,579 contracts), Canadian dollar (-11,852 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-6,676 contracts), Mexican peso (-5,503 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,259 contracts), Brazil real (-5,096 contracts), British pound sterling (-4,192 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,038 contracts), US Dollar Index (-808 contracts), Australian dollar (-865 contracts) and Bitcoin (-24 contracts).

Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-03-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	54,092	76	33,071	83	-35,684	15	2,613	45
EUR	694,926	80	-6,378	33	-24,586	69	30,964	26
GBP	268,496	82	-73,813	21	89,026	82	-15,213	24
JPY	254,813	92	-100,794	7	120,264	94	-19,470	14
CHF	49,385	31	-13,907	46	30,542	68	-16,635	7
CAD	152,779	32	9,029	56	-12,959	51	3,930	38
AUD	152,257	46	-28,516	58	34,225	44	-5,709	39
NZD	50,844	45	-6,610	60	9,879	46	-3,269	14
MXN	151,933	27	14,623	34	-18,552	65	3,929	60
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	61,549	56	41,788	91	-43,371	9	1,583	83
Bitcoin	10,051	52	388	100	-429	0	41	14

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,879 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	85.5	2.7	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.4	68.6	5.0
– Net Position:	33,071	-35,684	2,613
– Gross Longs:	46,264	1,439	5,296
– Gross Shorts:	13,193	37,123	2,683
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.8	15.3	45.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-3.6	-13.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -28,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,201 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	55.1	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	58.7	8.2
– Net Position:	-6,378	-24,586	30,964
– Gross Longs:	208,449	383,222	88,267
– Gross Shorts:	214,827	407,808	57,303
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.0	69.0	25.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	6.2	13.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -73,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,621 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	77.7	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	44.6	13.3
– Net Position:	-73,813	89,026	-15,213
– Gross Longs:	33,536	208,754	20,590
– Gross Shorts:	107,349	119,728	35,803
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.8	82.3	24.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.3	22.8	-4.3

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -100,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,535 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	84.6	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.8	37.4	14.7
– Net Position:	-100,794	120,264	-19,470
– Gross Longs:	18,585	215,563	18,007
– Gross Shorts:	119,379	95,299	37,477
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.8	94.3	13.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.7	7.5	13.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,038 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	75.8	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.0	13.9	48.7
– Net Position:	-13,907	30,542	-16,635
– Gross Longs:	4,357	37,429	7,397
– Gross Shorts:	18,264	6,887	24,032
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	5.4 to 1	0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.7	68.3	7.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	11.9	-14.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 9,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,852 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,881 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	47.5	21.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.3	56.0	18.4
– Net Position:	9,029	-12,959	3,930
– Gross Longs:	44,670	72,629	32,093
– Gross Shorts:	35,641	85,588	28,163
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.7	51.2	37.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.8	-4.0	-17.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -28,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	52.6	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.6	30.2	17.8
– Net Position:	-28,516	34,225	-5,709
– Gross Longs:	46,995	80,147	21,330
– Gross Shorts:	75,511	45,922	27,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.4	44.4	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.0	-10.6	-20.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	60.6	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.3	41.1	11.2
– Net Position:	-6,610	9,879	-3,269
– Gross Longs:	17,427	30,789	2,423
– Gross Shorts:	24,037	20,910	5,692
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.2	45.6	14.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	18.4	-32.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 14,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	52.3	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	64.5	1.9
– Net Position:	14,623	-18,552	3,929
– Gross Longs:	63,860	79,394	6,771
– Gross Shorts:	49,237	97,946	2,842
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	65.1	59.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.9	-13.5	-0.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 41,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,096 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,884 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.2	13.5	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	83.9	2.8
– Net Position:	41,788	-43,371	1,583
– Gross Longs:	49,991	8,280	3,278
– Gross Shorts:	8,203	51,651	1,695
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.4	9.0	83.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	1.1	-15.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 412 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.8	3.0	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.9	7.2	8.2
– Net Position:	388	-429	41
– Gross Longs:	8,121	298	867
– Gross Shorts:	7,733	727	826
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.5	7.1	13.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	4.2	-10.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

06 May

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 06.05.2022 (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset has formed a Harami reversal pattern close to the resistance area during the pullback. At the moment, EURUSD is reversing in the form of a new descending impulse. In this case, the downside target may be at 1.0440. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may correct to rebound from the resistance area at 1.0600 and then resume the descending tendency.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY has formed a Hammer pattern not far from the support level. At the moment, the asset is reversing in the form of a new ascending impulse. In this case, the upside target may be at 132.20. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may correct to rebound from 129.50 and then resume the uptrend.

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming a Long-Legged Doji pattern near the resistance area, EURGBP is reversing. In this case, the downside target may be the support level at 0.8485. Later, the market may test this level, rebound from it, and resume the ascending impulse. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may grow to reach 0.8475 and continue the uptrend without testing the support level.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

06 May

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.05.06

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0618
Prev Close: 1.0539
% chg. over the last day: -0.75%

An important non-farm payroll report will be published in the US today. This figure is taken into account by the US Federal Reserve for monetary policy regulation. Analysts expect employment to rise by 390,000 (previously 421,000) and the unemployment rate to drop to 3.5%. If the data is worse than expected, the dollar index may fall sharply again, and vice versa. In any case, volatility in currency pairs with the dollar will rise sharply.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0453
Resistance levels: 1.0580, 1.0633, 1.0723, 1.0766, 1.0799, 1.0869, 1.0955

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bearish. The price has dropped below the moving average again, and the MACD indicator has become negative. Under such market conditions, traders can look for sell deals from the resistance level of 1.0580, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades can be considered on intraday timeframes from the support level of 1.0453, but only with short targets and confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0770 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.05.06:

– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 16:15 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2625
Prev Close: 1.2355
% chg. over the last day: -2.18%

The Bank of England raised the interest rate by another 0.25% to 1%. The vote showed that six bank representatives voted for a 0.25% rate hike, while three members insisted on 0.5%. The Monetary Policy Report indicates that global inflationary pressures have sharply risen since Russia invaded Ukraine. This has led to a significant deterioration in global and UK growth prospects. According to the May report’s forecast, inflation is expected to continue to rise, averaging just over 9% in the second quarter of 2022 and averaging just over 10% at its peak in the fourth quarter of 2022. The outlook has been extremely negative, reflected in the British pound’s price.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2293, 1.2127
Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2519, 1.2602, 1.2695, 1.2792, 1.2981, 1.3010, 1.3114

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is still bearish. The MACD indicator is negative again, and selling pressure remains high. Under such market conditions, sell trades should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2450 intraday. For buy deals, traders may consider the level of 1.2293, but only with short targets and after confirmation in the form of buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2695 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely be resumed.

News feed for 2022.05.06:

– UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 129.04
Prev Close: 130.18
% chg. over the last day: +0.88%

The fundamental picture of the USD/JPY currency pair remains unchanged. The monetary policy of the US and Japan central banks is still at different poles, which will contribute to the growth of USD/JPY quotes in the mid-term perspective. Therefore, any pullback should be used as an opportunity to buy. But inflation in Japan is rising and approaching the 2% target. In Tokyo, consumer price inflation has reached 1.9% year on year. Once the country’s inflation rate reaches 2%, the Bank of Japan will abandon its ultra-soft monetary policy.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 129.42, 128.55, 127.29, 126.91, 126.00, 125.57
Resistance levels: 130.80

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is still bullish. The MACD indicator has become positive, and the buying pressure has increased. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals, expecting the continuation of the uptrend. First of all, it is worth considering the support level of 129.42, but with additional confirmation. A resistance level of 130.80 may be considered for sell deals, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 128.55, the uptrend will likely be broken.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2742
Prev Close: 1.2834
% chg. over the last day: +0.72%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the dollar index and on the prices of energy commodities such as oil. The dollar index jumped sharply yesterday, while oil prices also rose. On Thursday, a US Senate committee passed a bill that could bring the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partners to lawsuits for conspiring to raise crude oil prices. Analysts believe that this situation would temporarily boost oil prices.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2774, 1.2692, 1.2644, 1.2607, 1.2521
Resistance levels: 1.2908

The USD/CAD currency pair is bullish in terms of technical analysis. The price is forming a wide price corridor. The MACD indicator is positive again, and the buyer’s pressure has increased. Trade is worth it only with short targets because, fundamentally, both the dollar index and the Canadian dollar are inclined to grow. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower timeframes from the support level of 1.2774, but it is better with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2908, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below 1.2693, the downtrend will likely be resumed.

News feed for 2022.05.06:

– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 May

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 05.05.2022 (GBPUSD, USDCAD, NZDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is falling within the bearish channel. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.2575 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.2255 Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.2755. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.2845. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the bullish channel’s downside border and fix below 1.2395.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is testing the support area. The instrument is currently moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.2660 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.2995. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.2605. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.2510.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD his rebounding from the bearish channel’s upside border. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6530 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6275. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6655. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6745.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 May

GBP: the future is vague. Overview for 05.05.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD is falling before the May meeting of the Bank of England.

The Pound sterling is looking rather weak against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2525.

The United Kingdom didn’t publish a lot of important macroeconomic statistics this week. However, there will be something worth paying attention to today – the Bank of England is scheduled to have another meeting.

Market expectations are rather mixed. On one hand, there is a chance the BoE might tighten its monetary policy and raise the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points. However, it’s not the British regulator’s style. Besides, before raising the rate, the BoE usually provides market players with corresponding signals. On the other hand, the regulator may remain cautious, announce a minimum 25-point hike, and take a break to monitor the situation. In light of the current aggressive economic conditions, this conservative approach may put much pressure on the GBP.

On average, investors are expecting the BoE to raise the rate by 25 basis points after each meeting this year. However, there might be pauses between hikes, and the longer the pause, the more pressure on the Pound.

Investors’ attention will be focused on the number of votes in favour of a rate hike and the regulator’s comments after the meeting.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 May

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.05.05

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0519
Prev Close: 1.0620
% chg. over the last day: +0.96%

As policymakers tried to quell record inflation, the Fed’s 50 basis point hike was the largest since 2000. But Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters at a press conference that Fed members are not considering an active 75 basis point hike in the future. The euro jumped almost 1% on this news.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0564, 1.0453
Resistance levels: 1.0633, 1.0723, 1.0766, 1.0799, 1.0869, 1.0955

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bearish. But there are first signs of bullish pressure. The MACD indicator has become positive. Under such market conditions, traders can look for sell deals from the resistance level of 1.0633, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades can be considered on intraday timeframes from the support level of 1.0564, but only with short targets and confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0770 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.05.05:

– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2496
Prev Close: 1.2635
% chg. over the last day: +1.11%

Today, the Bank of England is almost 100% likely to raise the key rate by 25 basis points (0.25%) to 1%, the highest rate level in 13 years and a threshold at which active quantitative tightening can begin. It is important to look closely at changes in gross domestic product forecasts and the consumer price index. GDP is likely to fall sharply in 2022, and inflation is expected to be revised upward. The pound may rise again if forecasts are more optimistic.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2530, 1.2438
Resistance levels: 1.2602, 1.2695, 1.2792, 1.2981, 1.3010, 1.3114

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is still bearish. Yesterday, the British pound jumped amid the Fed news but reached the resistance level. The MACD indicator became positive, but the buying pressure decreased. Under such market conditions, sell trades should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2602 intraday. For buy deals, traders may consider the level of 1.2530, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2792 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely be resumed.

News feed for 2022.05.05:

– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Inflation Report (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 130.10
Prev Close: 129.04
% chg. over the last day: -0.82%

The Japanese market is closed today. Therefore, currency pairs with the yen are now completely dependent on the movement of major currencies. Yesterday, the dollar index fell sharply after the Fed meeting, which led to a decline in the USD/JPY. However, it should be noted that the monetary policy of the US and Japanese central banks is still at different poles, which will contribute to the USD/JPY quotes growth in the mid-term perspective.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 128.89, 128.55, 127.29, 126.91, 126.00, 125.57
Resistance levels: 129.78, 130.80

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is still bullish. The MACD indicator has become negative. The price has corrected to the nearest support levels. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals, expecting the continuation of the uptrend. First of all, it is worth considering the support level of 128.89 or 128.55, but with additional confirmation. A resistance level of 129.78 may be considered for sell deals, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 127.29, the uptrend will likely be broken.

There is no news feed for today. It’s a bank holiday.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2842
Prev Close: 1.2736
% chg. over the last day: -0.83%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the dollar index and on the prices of energy commodities such as oil. The dollar index fell sharply after the Fed meeting yesterday, while oil prices jumped more than 5%, as at today’s OPEC+ meeting, producer countries will not increase oil production. As a result, the Canadian dollar strengthened sharply yesterday.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2693, 1.2644, 1.2607, 1.2521
Resistance levels: 1.2802, 1.2908

The USD/CAD currency pair is bullish in terms of technical analysis. The MACD indicator has become negative, and the selling pressure has increased. Trade is worth it only with short targets because, fundamentally, both the dollar index and the Canadian dollar are inclined to grow. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower timeframes from the support level of 1.2693 or 1.2644, but it is better with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2802, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below 1.2644, the downtrend will likely be resumed.

News feed for 2022.05.05:

– OPEC+ Meeting at 12:00 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 May

Dollar Index Hits Your Target And More

By Ino.com

– Three weeks ago, I shared the chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DX) with a bullish outlook.

You supported the idea with the most votes given to the conservative target of $103 located at the peak of Y2020. Your winning vote played out last Wednesday, the 27th of April. Kudos to all of you.

It is time to dust off the big chart again to update on further prospects.

The green triangular scenario has been eliminated as the price surpassed the last year’s peak of $103. The least favored blue path is the primary plan now. I turned the blue arrow into a blue zigzag as the price could take a break after hitting the upside of the blue dotted trend channel around $114.

The next barrier (black) of the Neckline (Giant Double Bottom pattern) is located at $121. It is that very target I was calling for in the title of the previous post.

It is too early to talk about the plan in case the Neckline is broken, although we have no other large barriers beyond, except the all-time high at the peak of the distant 1985 of $164.7. It would be an ultra-optimistic target with the total dominance of the dollar across the globe.

I want to show you one chart below that could shed light on why the dollar could rise further.

There are three lines in the chart above that represent the U.S. interest rate (black), U.S. inflation rate YoY (red), and the U.S. real interest rate (blue). It starts from 1977, and for the considered period, the current real interest rate has the most negative reading of -8%. Thus, the Fed has been forced to admit that this raging inflation is not transitory, and it should respond appropriately to take the rising prices under control. This week, the market expects a 50 basis point hike from the Fed; this would double the interest rate to 1.00%.

In 1980, the real interest rate had dived deep into a negative area to hit the valley -4.90% amid the strong inflation above 14% and the falling interest rate (9.50%). This triggered the fast-paced tightening of the monetary policy as the Fed rate more than doubled to hit the earlier top of 20% in just one year. The inflation quickly dropped to single-digit numbers under such severe pressure. Indeed, the real interest rate made a V-turn accordingly to match even with the inflation rate of around 10%.

If we take history as a sample, the Fed could take the interest rate much higher beyond the most hawkish expectations. The simple calculation shows that the Fed rate topped at the ratio of 1.35 to the peak inflation rate (20/14.8). Applying this math to the current situation, we should multiply 1.35 by 8.5% of the inflation rate. Then the Fed should hike up to 11.5%, an unbelievable number! Although, it will not update the all-time high.

The time lag between the peaked inflation and the first hike was almost a half year in the past. This time, the Fed took the first step almost immediately if we take the March inflation reading as the peak. It could change the size of the tightening, as the speed really matters.

The higher the real interest rate, the more attractive the currency is. The hawkish Fed could spur even stronger demand for the U.S. dollar.

I am eager to see your opinion in the comments below, as it has enriched our view many times before.

Intelligent trades!

Aibek Burabayev
INO.com Contributor, Metals

Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: Dollar Index Hits Your Target And More

Forex and Currency News Opinions

04 May

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for May 2022

By RoboForex.com

– EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the daily chart, having completed the correction at 1.1800, rebounded from it to the downside, and then finished another descending wave towards 1.0835, EURUSD has broken the downside border of the consolidation range around the latter level to reach the short-term target at 1.0494. Possibly, the pair may correct to test 1.0830 from below and then form one more descending structure towards 1.0200.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

In the daily chart, after forming a new consolidation range around 1.3090 and breaking it downwards, GBPUSD has reached the short-term downside target at 1.2450. Possibly, the pair may start a new correction to test 1.3000 from below and then resume falling to reach 1.2340.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

In the daily chart, having formed a new consolidation rage around 122.77 and broken it to the upside, USDJPY has reached the short-term target at 131.00. Later, the market may correct to test 129.31 from below and then start a new growth to reach 132.30.

BRENT

As we can see in the daily chart, Brent is consolidating around 106.70. Possibly, the asset may form one more ascending wave towards 116.00 and then start a new correction to return to 106.70. Later, the market may resume trading upwards to reach 125.15 or even extend this structure up to 137.10.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

In the daily chart, after forming a new consolidation range around 1924.75, Gold has expanded it down to 1850.00 and may later grow to test 1924.75 from below. After that, the instrument may start a new decline towards 1789.80 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 2100.00.

S&P 500

In the daily chart, having rebounded from 4633.3 to the downside, the S&P index has completed the descending structure at 4166.6; right now, it is consolidating around the latter level. Possibly, the asset may break the range to the downside and resume trading downwards with the short-term target at 3700.0.

Article By RoboForex.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

04 May

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.05.04

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0500
Prev Close: 1.0519
% chg. over the last day: +0.18%

The Producer Price Index, which shows the inflation rate between factories and plants, jumped by 5.5% MoM in Europe. As a rule, the growth of this index is further accompanied by rising prices for consumer goods. Due to strong inflationary pressures, the ECB sees a possible interest rate hike as early as July. The unemployment rate in the Eurozone decreased from 6.9% to 6.8%.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0453
Resistance levels: 1.0584, 1.0633, 1.0723, 1.0766, 1.0799, 1.0869, 1.0955

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price reached the support level and is trading flat now. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but the divergence is increasing. Under such market conditions, traders can look for sell deals from the resistance level of 1.0633, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades can be considered on intraday timeframes from the support level of 1.0453, but only with short targets and confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0770 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.05.04:

– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
– US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2490
Prev Close: 1.2494
% chg. over the last day: +0.03%

There is an almost 100% chance that the Bank of England will raise the key rate by 25 basis points (0.25%) to 1% on Thursday, the highest rate level in 13 years and the threshold at which active quantitative tightening can begin. It is important to look closely at changes in gross domestic product forecasts and the consumer price index. GDP is likely to fall sharply in 2022, and inflation is expected to be revised upward. If the forecasts are much worse, the pound could fall even more.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2486, 1.2438
Resistance levels: 1.2530, 1.2792, 1.2981, 1.3010, 1.3114

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is still bearish. The price reached the support level and is trading flat now. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, sell trades should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2530 intraday or 1.2695, but with confirmation. For buy deals, traders may consider the level of 1.2486, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2792 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely be resumed.

News feed for 2022.05.04:

– US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
– US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 130.10
Prev Close: 130.13
% chg. over the last day: +0.02%

The Japanese market will be closed today and tomorrow. Therefore, currency pairs with the yen will be completely dependent on the movement of major currencies. The fundamental picture for the JPY remains the same. The Bank of Japan pursues an ultra-soft monetary policy, negatively affecting the national yen rate. Today, major currencies will depend on the dollar index as the Fed is expected to hold an important meeting and press conference, where Jerome Powell will speak about the future economic outlook. The dollar index could see a new impulse growth if the future outlook is unfavorable. If the outlook is favorable, the dollar index could decline as the negative scenario already in prices.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 129.10, 128.55, 127.29, 126.91, 126.00, 125.57
Resistance levels: 130.80

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and the buyers’ pressure has decreased. Volatility has reduced, while the price is trading in a narrow flat. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals, expecting the continuation of the uptrend, but only after a pullback, as the price has strongly deviated from the average values. First of all, it is worth considering the support level of 129.10 or 128.55, but with additional confirmation. A resistance level of 130.80 may be considered for sell deals, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 127.29, the uptrend will likely be broken.

News feed for 2022.05.04:

– US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
– US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2879
Prev Close: 1.2839
% chg. over the last day: -0.31%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the dollar index and on the prices of energy commodities such as oil. The dollar index traded without a single dynamic yesterday. At the same time, oil prices decreased by 2% as demand worries over a prolonged quarantine in China due to COVID-19 outweighed the prospect of an EU embargo on Russian oil. As a result, the USD/CAD currency pair is trading without significant changes.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2824, 1.2750, 1.2644, 1.2607, 1.2521
Resistance levels: 1.2908

The USD/CAD currency pair is bullish in terms of technical analysis. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but the divergence has increased. Trade is worth it only with short targets because, fundamentally, both the dollar index and the Canadian dollar are inclined to grow. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower timeframes from the support level of 1.2750, but it is better with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2908, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below 1.2644, the downtrend will likely be resumed.

News feed for 2022.05.04:

– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
– US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

03 May

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Seems Overextended

By Orbex

EURUSD sees further downside

The euro continues to weaken over growth concerns in the eurozone amid the war in Ukraine. A tentative break below 1.0500 further put the euro under pressure.

A lack of rebound suggests that the bears are confident enough to hold onto their chips, while the bulls stay on the sidelines. A bullish RSI divergence shows a slowdown in the sell-off.

However, only a rally above 1.0650 could ease the selling pressure and help turn sentiment around. Otherwise, 1.0400 from January 2017 would be the next stop.

USDCHF hits 2-year high

The US dollar rallies ahead of an expected Fed rate hike this week. The pair is grinding a rising trendline and is about to reach a two-year high at 0.9800.

The RSI has ventured into the overbought area on the daily time frame. Meanwhile, the indicator’s bearish divergence suggests a loss of momentum in the parabolic ascent. The pair could be due for a pullback for the bulls to catch their breath.

The demand zone between the trendline and 0.9670 from the latest consolidation is a key area to gauge short-term buying interest.

US 30 struggles for support

The Dow Jones 30 recoups losses as traders take profit ahead of the FOMC. A break below 33300 forced bulls to bail out and suggests that the liquidation phase is yet to end.

The demand zone around 32700 from March’s rebound is a critical level to test buyers’ resolve. An oversold RSI has attracted bargain hunters, but the rebound will need to clear 33900 before a bullish reversal could materialize.

Failing that, February’s lows around 32300 would be the support of last resort before a deeper correction towards 31000.

Test your strategy on how the USD will fare with Orbex – Open Your Account Now.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

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