Forex and Currency News :: Page 138

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 138

Murrey Math Lines 23.05.2022 (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, EURUSD is trading below the 200-day Moving Average to indicate a possible descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to test 2/8, break it, and then continue falling to reach the support at 1/8. Still, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance at 3/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and grow towards 5/8.

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue trading downwards.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, GBPUSD is also trading below the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating a descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to test 3/8, rebound from it, and then resume falling to reach the support at 1/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance 3/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may grow towards the next resistance at 5/8.

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue its decline.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

23 May

EUR/USD on Its Way to Recovery

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The major currency pair remains optimistic and intends to continue its recovery. On Monday 23 May, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0590; investors are trying to buy.

After the previous meeting of the US Fed, market concerns about the regulator’s future fiscal moves smoothed a little bit. It’s clear that the Fed will continue raising the benchmark interest rate quite aggressively, but that’s all. This allows to reduce investors’ interest in the “greenback” and helps other traded currencies to correct.

This week is not going to ring a lot of important statistics for EUR/USD. Still, market players should pay attention to reports on the Durable Goods Orders and the Q1 GDP from the US. The ECB Financial Stability Review might also be interesting. Moreover, heads of European and American regulators are scheduled to speak.

As a rule, the last week of the month is not very rich in macroeconomic statistics and allows investors to prepare for the numbers to be published early in the upcoming month.

In the H4 chart, after rebounding from 1.0350 and then completing the correction at 1.0590, EUR/USD is expected to consolidate near the highs. Later, the market may break the range to the downside and resume falling with the target at 1.0300. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 0 and may continue falling to update the lows.

As we can see in the H1 chart, having completed the ascending wave at 1.0600 along with the correction down to 1.0460, EUR/USD is growing towards 1.0610. Later, the market may fall to return to 1.0460 and break it. After that, the instrument may continue trading downwards with the target at 1.0300. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: after reaching 80, its signal line is expected to fall to break 50 and then continue its decline towards 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

23 May

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.05.23

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0581
Prev Close: 1.0560
% chg. over the last day: -0.20%

According to the latest Eurostat data, consumer confidence in Europe is declining. ECB representative Visco believes that Europe may face a moderate recession, which may worsen depending on the circumstances related to the war in Ukraine. Asked about a 50 basis point interest rate hike, Visco said the ECB should come out of negative rates without adding uncertainty to the market. Analysts are confident that the ECB will start raising rates this summer. This is the reason why the euro has started to strengthen, as future scenarios are always priced in.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0545, 1.0509, 1.0445, 1.0379, 1.0342
Resistance levels: 1.0595, 1.0646, 1.0723, 1.0766, 1.0799, 1.0869

From a technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame has changed to bullish. The price broke through the priority change level and consolidated above the moving averages. The MACD indicator became positive, but a divergence appeared. Under such market conditions, investors can look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0545, but only with short targets and confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0595, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0445 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.05.23:

– Eurozone Germany Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Eurogroup Meetings (Tentative).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2461
Prev Close: 1.2491
% chg. over the last day: +0.24%

Former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King criticized central banks, including the Bank of England, blaming them for the cost of living crisis, fueling rising inflation, and printing hundreds of billions of pounds and dollars during the pandemic. At the same time, Lord King added that the British should prepare for a “very unpleasant period,” as a sharp rise in interest rates would hit the economy very hard. According to the former governor, interest rates have been kept too low for too long, with too much “quantitative easing” (QE) when banks print money to pump up the economy.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2485, 1.2437, 1.2398, 1.2283, 1.2199
Resistance levels: 1.2602, 1.2695, 1.2792, 1.2981

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend changed to bullish. The MACD indicator became positive, but divergence appeared. Under such market conditions, buy deals may be considered from the support level of 1.2485, but only with additional confirmation. Sell deals should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2602, but with confirmation in the form of sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2282 support level and fixes below, the mid-term downtrend will likely be resumed.

News feed for 2022.05.23:

– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 19:15 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 127.70
Prev Close: 127.91
% chg. over the last day: +0.16%

A conflict between the government and the Bank of Japan is growing in Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Kishida believes that rising commodity prices and a weak yen are negatively affecting households and businesses. In turn, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said that the Bank of Japan will continue with its soft monetary policy, as inflation is still unsustainable, even if it has reached the target level.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 127.46, 126.91, 126.00, 125.57
Resistance levels: 127.94, 128.45, 128.73, 129.07, 130.12, 130.99

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency is bearish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but sellers’ pressure is getting weaker; there are signs of divergence. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 127.46, but with confirmation. For sell deals, resistance level of 127.94 may be considered, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 129.07, the uptrend will likely be resumed.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2823
Prev Close: 1.2836
% chg. over the last day: +0.10%

The Bank of Canada is on the way to aggressive rate hikes, just like the US Fed. But unlike the US, Canada is showing no signs of a slowing economy. Recent indicators point to solid growth and a strong labor market. Rising energy prices give confidence to the Canadian dollar, as the Canadian dollar is a commodity currency. But, on the other hand, it leads to the growth of domestic fuel prices, which leaves some negative consequences, not in favor of the economy.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2789, 1.2774, 1.2692, 1.2644, 1.2607, 1.2521
Resistance levels: 1.2826, 1.2859, 1.2953, 1.3000, 1.3052

The USD/CAD currency pair is bearish in terms of technical analysis. The MACD indicator has become inactive, while there is a divergence, signifying sellers’ weakness. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2774 or 1.2789, but only with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2826, but also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates above 1.2953, the uptrend will likely be resumed.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 May

Forex Speculators weaken Commodity Currency sentiment over last month

Click for larger image

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data was the commodity currency speculator positions that have been on the defensive in recent weeks. Canadian dollar positions declined for a fourth straight week this week and have fallen by a total of -35,722 contracts over the past four weeks. This has pushed the overall speculator standing into a bearish position for a second straight week and to the most bearish level since October 2021. Previously, from the middle of January, CAD positions had started to trend higher and mostly maintained a bullish position into April, reaching a 40-week high on April 19th before seeing speculator sentiment weaken (-14,496 contracts this week).

Australian dollar spec positions slipped for a third straight week this week and the overall speculator position has now hit a 7-week low. Aussie positions have maintained a bearish speculator bias since last May (52 consecutive weeks in bearish territory) but had recently seen a reprieve of the weak sentiment. Aussie positions improved strongly from late-February to late-April with a 10-week contract rise of +59,043 positions from February 22nd to April 26th. The speculator positions hit the least bearish level (on April 26th) of the previous 42 weeks before these past 3 weeks has seen speculators re-up their bearish levels.

New Zealand dollar speculators also added to their bearish bets for a fourth straight week and have now pushed the position to the most bearish level since March 17th of 2020, a span of 113 weeks. Kiwi speculator positions had spent almost all of 2021 in bullish levels but spec bets started to falter at the end of the year and into the new year (through early March). Recently, positions had turned positive to bullish positioning in the middle of March and again later in April before turning lower in recent weeks. The NZD speculator sentiment has now been in bearish territory for the past three weeks after dropping by a total of -18,132 contracts from April 26th to this week.

Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (1,437 contracts), Japanese yen (8,145 contracts), Euro (3,810 contracts), British pound sterling (357 contracts), Bitcoin (103 contracts) and the Mexican peso (11,490 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the New Zealand dollar (-4,771 contracts), Canadian dollar (-9,089 contracts), Australian dollar (-2,928 contracts), Brazil real (-2,683 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-829 contracts).

Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-17-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	61,899	93	36,213	88	-39,506	9	3,293	53
EUR	706,712	85	20,339	41	-51,517	61	31,178	26
GBP	253,811	73	-79,241	17	94,344	85	-15,103	24
JPY	241,308	83	-102,309	6	115,062	92	-12,753	28
CHF	53,291	42	-16,592	37	31,181	72	-14,589	14
CAD	151,585	31	-14,496	28	12,591	75	1,905	34
AUD	163,809	55	-44,642	43	54,437	59	-9,795	29
NZD	60,804	64	-17,767	41	21,390	63	-3,623	10
MXN	170,924	36	28,215	39	-32,249	59	4,034	60
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	55,990	48	38,095	88	-39,436	13	1,341	80
Bitcoin	11,644	63	806	100	-875	0	69	15

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,437 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,776 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.5	3.4	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	67.2	3.5
– Net Position:	36,213	-39,506	3,293
– Gross Longs:	53,519	2,105	5,449
– Gross Shorts:	17,306	41,611	2,156
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.2	9.0	52.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-7.2	-0.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 20,339 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,529 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.7	52.7	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	59.9	7.7
– Net Position:	20,339	-51,517	31,178
– Gross Longs:	230,770	372,113	85,455
– Gross Shorts:	210,431	423,630	54,277
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.2	61.4	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	-0.5	14.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -79,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 357 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	79.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.7	42.3	14.1
– Net Position:	-79,241	94,344	-15,103
– Gross Longs:	26,613	201,647	20,811
– Gross Shorts:	105,854	107,303	35,914
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.9	85.5	24.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.0	21.6	1.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -102,309 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.0	84.7	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.4	37.0	14.0
– Net Position:	-102,309	115,062	-12,753
– Gross Longs:	12,113	204,417	20,933
– Gross Shorts:	114,422	89,355	33,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.9	91.8	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-5.0	17.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -16,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	74.5	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.0	16.0	42.6
– Net Position:	-16,592	31,181	-14,589
– Gross Longs:	5,240	39,722	8,094
– Gross Shorts:	21,832	8,541	22,683
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.7 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.6	72.3	13.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	12.9	-19.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	52.7	20.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	44.4	19.3
– Net Position:	-14,496	12,591	1,905
– Gross Longs:	36,069	79,825	31,228
– Gross Shorts:	50,565	67,234	29,323
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.5	75.0	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.4	33.9	-43.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -44,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,928 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,714 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	60.4	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.6	27.1	17.7
– Net Position:	-44,642	54,437	-9,795
– Gross Longs:	41,473	98,903	19,187
– Gross Shorts:	86,115	44,466	28,982
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.4	59.5	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	24.0	-60.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -17,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,771 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	71.1	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.9	35.9	9.8
– Net Position:	-17,767	21,390	-3,623
– Gross Longs:	14,998	43,219	2,358
– Gross Shorts:	32,765	21,829	5,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.5	63.4	10.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.2	32.7	-57.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 28,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,725 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.5	49.1	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	67.9	1.7
– Net Position:	28,215	-32,249	4,034
– Gross Longs:	77,819	83,844	7,000
– Gross Shorts:	49,604	116,093	2,966
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	59.4	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.6	-11.0	-3.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 38,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,778 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.8	16.9	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	87.3	3.7
– Net Position:	38,095	-39,436	1,341
– Gross Longs:	42,989	9,470	3,438
– Gross Shorts:	4,894	48,906	2,097
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.8	12.8	80.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	8.3	-12.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 103 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.1	1.7	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.2	9.2	8.7
– Net Position:	806	-875	69
– Gross Longs:	9,564	194	1,081
– Gross Shorts:	8,758	1,069	1,012
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	14.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.1	-29.8	-13.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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20 May

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 20.05.2022 (EURUSD, USDCAD, GBPUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is no longer moving within the bearish channel. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.0515 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.0750. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.0380. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.0295.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is rebounding from Tenkan-Sen. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test rebounding from Kijun-Sen at 1.2875 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.2525. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.2955. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.3045.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is testing the resistance level. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.2375 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.2775 Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.2175. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.2085.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

20 May

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.05.20

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0462
Prev Close: 1.0583
% chg. over the last day: +1.15%

The minutes of the European Central Bank’s April monetary policy meeting showed that inflation concerns prompted dovish central bank officials to support a 0.25-point rate hike as early as July. The rest of the representatives favor an immediate 0.5% hike. At the same time, net asset purchases will cease in late June. As the market began to consider the risks of a 0.5% interest rate hike, the euro began to strengthen.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0545, 1.0509, 1.0445, 1.0379, 1.0342
Resistance levels: 1.0595, 1.0646, 1.0723, 1.0766, 1.0799, 1.0869

From a technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hour timeframe has changed to bullish. The price broke through the priority change level and consolidated above the moving averages. The MACD indicator became positive, but a divergence appeared. Under such market conditions, investors can look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0545, but only with short targets and confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0595, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0445 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2335
Prev Close: 1.2470
% chg. over the last day: +1.09%

Consumer sentiment in the UK has fallen to its lowest level since 1974. Consumers are increasingly pessimistic about the economy amid a deepening cost-of-living crisis. Investor fears are growing that the UK, like the US, is facing a recession. The inflationary blow to living standards is already forcing consumers to tighten their belts as rising prices for necessities such as food, fuel, and energy are forcing them to cut other costs.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2437, 1.2398, 1.2283, 1.2199
Resistance levels: 1.2485, 1.2519, 1.2602, 1.2695, 1.2792, 1.2981

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend changed to bullish. The MACD indicator became positive, but divergence appeared. Under such market conditions, buy deals may be considered from the support level of 1.2398, but only with additional confirmation. Sell deals should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2485, but with confirmation in the form of sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2282 support level and fixes below, the mid-term downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.05.20:

– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 128.13
Prev Close: 127.82
% chg. over the last day: -0.24%

Core consumer inflation in Japan reached a central bank’s target of 2% (2.1% year on year) in April, reaching a seven-year high as rising energy and commodity prices led to wider price increases. Rising prices are exacerbating public concerns about the high cost of living. The Bank of Japan must now respond by pursuing a soft monetary policy to boost the inflation rate. The Japanese yen may be strengthening not only as a safe-haven currency but also because the Bank of Japan may soon abandon its loose monetary policy.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 127.46, 126.91, 126.00, 125.57
Resistance levels: 127.94, 128.45, 128.73, 129.07, 130.12, 130.99

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency has changed to bearish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, and sellers’ pressure prevails, but there are signs of divergence. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 127.46, but with confirmation. Resistance level of 127.94 may be considered for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 129.07, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.05.20:

– Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2885
Prev Close: 1.2822
% chg. over the last day: -0.49%

Given the rise in oil prices and the fact that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates at its next meetings – all of these factors are positive for the Canadian dollar, which has been strengthening in recent days. Currently, the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve hold key rates at 1%. This parity suggests that traders should not expect medium-term trends in the USD/CAD currency pair, as both currencies are inclined to rise now.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2789, 1.2774, 1.2692, 1.2644, 1.2607, 1.2521
Resistance levels: 1.2858, 1.2859, 1.2953, 1.3000, 1.3052

The USD/CAD currency pair is bearish in terms of technical analysis. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but it moves towards zero. At the same time, there is a divergence, which is a sign of sellers’ weakness. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2774, but only with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2826, but also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates above 1.2953, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

20 May

Week Ahead: Can NZDUSD sustain its rebound?

By ForexTime

G10 currencies enjoyed some reprieve against the US dollar this week, although stocks have endured another brutal selloff.

Markets are set to remain gripped by the effects of soaring inflation on companies’ bottom lines and on the performance of major economies.

More clues may come via the following economic data releases, events, and company earnings due in the week ahead:

Monday, May 23

EUR: Germany May IFO Business Climate
GBP: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speech
USD: Fed speak – Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Kansas Fed President Esther George
Zoom Q1 earnings

Tuesday, May 24

EUR: Eurozone May PMIs
GBP: UK May PMIs
USD: US May PMIs

Wednesday, May 25

NZD: RBNZ rate decision
US crude: EIA weekly US crude inventories
USD: FOMC May meeting minutes
Nvidia Q1 earnings

Thursday, May 26

USD: US 1Q GDP (second estimate), weekly initial jobless claims
CAD: Canada March retail sales
Q1 earnings: Alibaba, Baidu, Dell, Macy’s

Friday, May 27

CNH: China April industrial profits
AUD: Australia April retail sales
USD: US April personal income and spending, PCE deflator, and May consumer sentiment (final print)

NZDUSD was able to clamber away from its two-year low close to 0.620, only to be resisted by its 21-day simple moving average as well as its downtrend line that began since April.

This currency pair was also due for a rebound, with its 14-day relative strength index resurfacing above the 30 threshold which signals oversold conditions.

NZDUSD’s performance in the coming week is set to be influenced by the RBNZ rate decision, as well as the latest FOMC minutes and Fed speeches.

Markets are expecting the RBNZ to hike by a further 50 basis points this month, adding to the 125 basis points in hikes already incurred since October, in a bid to get ahead of inflation that has risen to its highest in over 30 years.

A dovish surprise by way of a 25 basis point hike could see the kiwi falter back closer to the 0.62 mark against the US dollar.

Also, if the RBNZ signals that it cannot raise rates as much as previously expected, for fear of sending the economy into a recession, that could also prompt the kiwi to unwind recent gains. Already, New Zealand’s Treasury Department is forecasting meagre growth of just 0.1% for the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2023.

Policymakers and market participants are well aware that the slightest policy misstep could send NZ into a recession, and the NZD falling further as such prospects.

On the other side of this currency pair, the US dollar could be restored to recent heights if the incoming FOMC minutes and scheduled Fed speak continue to ramp up the hawkish rhetoric and help US yields restore their advantage over its G10 peers.

However, if growth concerns surrounding the US economy outweigh fears over the ultra-hawkish Fed, that could prompt investors to rush back to the safety of US Treasuries, pushing down its yields while prompting the greenback to unwind its recent gains and offer more relief for the rest of the FX universe.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

19 May

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 19.05.2022 (NZDUSD, XAUUSD, EURGBP)

Article By RoboForex.com

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is rebounding from the bearish channel’s upside border. The instrument is currently moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. Early in May, there was a similar test of the cloud, which resulted in a further downtrend. The markets could indicate that the price may re-test Tenkan-Sen at 0.6330 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6075. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6405. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6505. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the rising channel’s downside border and fix below 0.6230; so far, bears haven’t been able to leave the correctional channel.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD is testing Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1825.00 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1725.00. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1865.00. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1895.00. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the rising channel’s downside border and fix below 1805.00.

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

EURGBP is correcting within a “5-0” pattern. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.8490 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.8320. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.8535. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.8625.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

19 May

EURUSD remains nervous. Overview for 19.05.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD remains volatile; the asset is very sensitive to any changes in the market sentiment.

The major currency pair fixed within a sideways range on Thursday. the current quote for the instrument is 1.0482.

The US economy is now getting real confirmation that an inflation boost might really damage its key elements and mechanisms. Quarterly reports from big-time retailers, such as Walmart and Target, showed that the consumer sector marginality was reducing. Earlier, this sector was considered a protective one, but this status is fading away now due to the inflation rally. It’s interesting that the latest retail sales report hasn’t shown it yet.

Market players will keep an eye on inflation until the Fed’s rate hike shows its effect.

The US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the same yesterday. However, there are reasons for raising the rate faster, 50-75 basis points at a time. This aspect puts pressure on capital markets and makes investors escape risks. In this light, EURUSD remains highly volatile.

Later today, market players should pay attention to the weekly Unemployment Claims report from the US, which is currently fluctuating between 200-210K. Any significant deviations from this range may signal changes in the labour market.

Moreover, the European Central Bank is planning to release its Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts. Investors will look through the document to find any hints at the regulator’s willingness to make its monetary policy more aggressive in response to the inflation rally. This might be positive for the Euro.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

19 May

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.05.19

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0545
Prev Close: 1.0460
% chg. over the last day: -0.81%

The annual inflation rate in the Eurozone decreased from 7.5% to 7.4%. These are signs that inflation is slowing down. But it is a negative sign for the European currency as the ECB does not need to conduct a more aggressive monetary policy and rush to end its stimulus program. Today the ECB will publish the April minutes of its monetary policy meeting.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0445, 1.0379, 1.0342
Resistance levels: 1.0515, 1.0545, 1.0587, 1.0646, 1.0723, 1.0766, 1.0799, 1.0869

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hour timeframe is still bearish. The price is balanced now, as it is trading between the moving averages. The MACD is negative again. Under such market conditions, it is possible to look for sell trades from the resistance level of 1.0545, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades can be considered on intraday timeframes from the support level of 1.0445, but only with short targets and confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0545 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.05.19:

– Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2490
Prev Close: 1.2337
% chg. over the last day: -1.24%

The UK Finance Minister Sunak yesterday pointed out that unlimited fiscal stimulus risks exacerbating the inflation problem. In the UK there is an increasing conflict between the government and the Bank of England. The government is criticizing the policy for its inability to curb the rise in inflation rates. With a high probability, the Bank of England will begin to take more decisive action to save its face.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2443, 1.2283, 1.2199
Resistance levels: 1.2393, 1.2467, 1.2519, 1.2602, 1.2695, 1.2792, 1.2981

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend changed to bullish. The MACD indicator became negative, and the price pullbacks to the moving averages. Under such market conditions, buy deals may be considered from the support level of 1.2343 or 1.2283, but only with additional confirmation. Sell deals should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2467, but with confirmation in the form of sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2200 support level and fixes below, the mid-term downtrend will likely be resumed.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 129.40
Prev Close: 128.24
% chg. over the last day: -0.90%

More than 60% of Japanese companies want the central bank to end its policy of massive monetary easing this fiscal year because of yen weakness, with about a quarter urging it to take action now. A rapid slide in the yen to a two-decade low has jacked up prices of fuel and raw materials imports, lifting not only corporate costs but also hitting household spending. The Bank of Japan is not going to change its monetary policy yet, but it should be noted that Japan’s inflation rate is close to the 2% target. Now Kuroda wants to see inflation be sustainable.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 128.29, 127.29, 126.91, 126.00, 125.57
Resistance levels: 128.93, 129.34, 130.12, 130.99

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency has changed to bearish. The Japanese yen is being bought by investors as a safe-haven currency, so the yen is temporarily strengthening. But despite the change in the trend on the hour timeframe, it is better to look for buy deals with the expectation of an uptrend continuation since the Japanese Yen has no fundamental support. First of all, it is worth considering the support level of 128.29, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 129.34 may be considered for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 130.12, the uptrend will likely be resumed.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2809
Prev Close: 1.2892
% chg. over the last day: +0.64%

The growth of consumer prices in Canada showed 0.6% in April. On an annualized basis, the inflation rate reached 6.8%. Most of the price growth was driven by food and housing prices. Core inflation (excluding food and fuel prices) increased from 5.5% to 5.8%. This is the fastest rate of growth since 1999. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to affect energy prices, commodity prices, and primarily food prices.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2826, 1.2774, 1.2692, 1.2644, 1.2607, 1.2521
Resistance levels: 1.2858, 1.2904, 1.2953, 1.3000, 1.3052

The USD/CAD currency pair trend is bearish in terms of technical analysis. But now the price is balanced, the MACD indicator has become inactive, and the price is trading between the moving averages. It is worth trading only with short targets because, fundamentally, both the dollar index and the Canadian dollar are inclined to grow. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower timeframes from the support level of 1.2826, but only with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2858 or 1.2904, but also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates above 1.3000, the uptrend will likely be resumed.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

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