Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 129

07 Jun

The pound faces ‘perfect storm’ despite UK Johnson’s narrow win

By George Prior 

– The British pound – already showing ‘emerging market’ traits – faces a difficult time ahead amid political storms in the UK, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organisations.

The warning from Nigel Green of deVere Group comes despite sterling holding gains against the dollar and euro as Boris Johnson survived a No Confidence Vote on Monday.

It also follows Bank of America Corp. strategists last week urging investors to hedge for an “existential” sterling crisis as the British currency faces struggles usually seen in emerging markets.

Nigel Green says: “Johnson may have won the No Confidence Vote, but only by a small margin; it was not a convincing win – 41% of his own MPs voted against him.

“Modern history teaches us that his time in office is likely to be coming to an end. It now seems more unlikely that he will get the opportunity to fight the next general election.”

When his predecessor Theresa May faced a confidence vote in 2018, she secured the support of 63% of her MPs – but was still forced out within six months.

When Michael Heseltine challenged Margaret Thatcher’s leadership in 1990, he won 40.9% of the vote. The contest had to go to a second round because she did not achieve the 55% required for an outright victory. She would fight on but ultimately the “men in grey suits” persuaded her to resign.

“If Johnson is, in effect, a dead man walking, investors need to prepare for potentially choppy times ahead for the British pound.

“Whilst sterling has not yet been immediately negatively affected by the latest twists and turns in Westminster, we believe that it is likely that there will be a leadership challenge before the next election,” says the deVere Group CEO.

“When names are put into the ring to become the next leader, and policy agendas of the frontrunners are known, the pound can be expected to become highly volatile – just as it did during the testy Brexit negotiations.

“The issues laid bare by Johnson’s possible successors that will impact the pound would include the UK’s relationship with the EU and single market access, fiscal stimulus and the Northern Ireland protocol, amongst others.”

He goes on to add that a leadership contest “combined with well-flagged, international and domestic concerns” that the Bank of England is in danger of losing its mandate as it struggles to contain inflation, which is at its fastest rate in four decades, could create the “perfect storm for the pound.”

Nigel Green concludes: “Johnson has suffered a major Tory rebellion. Despite him narrowly winning the No Confidence Vote, and now, under current rules, being immune from a leadership challenge, he’s clearly in political hot water.

“The already beleaguered pound will likely become, yet again, an important bellwether of political events. Investors should brace themselves and position their portfolios accordingly.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

 

Forex and Currency News Opinions
07 Jun

USD/JPY hits fresh 20-year highs

By ForexTime

It’s been an interesting start to the week with the Reserve Bank of Australia surprising many with a half-point interest rate hike and the yen weakening again.

JPY pressure is intense at the moment. 10-year US Treasury yields have moved above 3% and oil is at $120 per barrel. As long as those yields are rushing higher, momentum is bullish in USD/JPY.

This only slows if the Bank of Japan is ready to climb down from its commitment to the yield-curve-control policy under which it caps the 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield at 0.25%.

Elevated energy prices also do not help JPY as the country is a net energy importer. Verbal intervention may grow louder now, but the BoJ continues to view the weak yen as mainly positive.

Technically, the recent high in USD/JPY was 131.349 so this becomes support. The January 2002 high is the next key upside level at 135.15. After that the October 1998 top is 136.89.

Prices have entered overbought territory, but this hasn’t stopped the major advancing further in the past.

 

RBA surprises with bigger rate hike

The RBA raised the cash rate by 50bps overnight, fully unwinding the emergency cuts seen during the pandemic in 2020.

The bank said the economy is resilient and inflation is expected to increase further before dropping back towards the 2-3% range next year. Policymakers expect to take further steps in the process of normalising monetary conditions over the months ahead which likely means more 50bp rate hikes in the coming months.  Future rate increases will be guided by inflation and labour market data.

The consensus view had been for a 40bp hike with the market pricing in 28bps before the meeting. This is slightly out of character for a central bank that has always seems to characterise itself as on the dovish side of the Fed.

But the market is very aggressively priced for rate hikes going forward as the RBA front-load and global growth risks next year may tilt towards a shorter RBA hiking cycle.

AUD is struggling this morning with sour risk sentiment. The 200-day and the 100-day simple moving averages have capped the upside so far, at 0.72563 and 0.7229. The Fib level (38.2%) of the April/May move comes in below at 0.7147.

 

Risk sentiment cautious

Traders in general appear to be in a watchful mood as they eye up the ECB meeting and latest US inflation data later on in the week.

Both European and US futures are in the red after a choppy session on Wall Street overnight.

The dollar is trying to break out of recent consolidation with a move to the upside.

US equities pared gains at the close with the S&P 500 closing 0.3% higher after advancing as much as 1.5% during the day. The Dow closed near sessions lows, eking out a 16-point gain. US-listed Chinese stocks helped the Nasdaq rise 0.4%. Cyclical stocks outperformed defensives for the eighth time in the last nine sessions.

This essentially means the most oversold sectors are benefitting the most in the relief rally.

The blue-chip US equity benchmark, the S&P500, has been trading in a relatively narrow range over the last few days around the February low at 4105. After several weeks of wild swings, the broad S&P index ended May at almost exactly the same level it started.

Looking at various historical episodes, equities may not have found the trough yet, given headwinds of further aggressive monetary policy tightening from central banks, the risk related to the war in Ukraine which is clearly systemic, and commodity markets performing strongly.

This month’s low at 4073 is initial support. On the flip side, last week’s high in the S&P500 at 4177 is the near-term target for bulls. The Fib level (23.6%) of the March 2020 low/January 2022 high sits above here at 4198, with the 50-day simple moving average at 4227.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
06 Jun

Trade Of The Week: Pound To Be Rocked By Political Uncertainty?

By ForexTime 

– UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was flung into the spotlight on Monday after enough Conservative MPs triggered a vote of no-confidence in his leadership.

The British pound immediately hijacked our attention following this development as investors were already concerned over the UK’s worsening economic outlook and post-Brexit tensions. With political uncertainty adding to the toxic mix, one would have expected the pound to collapse like a house of cards – buckling under the strain of negative themes. So far, this news has not had a significant impact on risk appetite with sterling appreciating against the dollar and other G10 currencies!

Taking a quick peek at the technical picture, the GBPUSD has found support around 1.2470 and resistance around 1.2580. On the H4 timeframe, prices are trading below the 50 SMA but above the 100 and 200 SMA. A minor breakout/down could be on the horizon but this may be triggered by political developments.

The low down….

After being booed when he arrived at a service of thanksgiving for Queen Elizabeth’s platinum jubilee last Friday, Johnson just can’t catch a breath.

The Prime minister’s fate will now be decided by a simple secret ballot of MP’s, taking place between 6 pm – 8 pm BST on Monday evening. Under the rules to stay in power, a leader needs to win at least 50% which equals 180 votes. When considering how the vote will be in secret, those who may show loyalty to the prime minister publicly could withdraw their support if they want. Bookmakers are predicting an almost 67% chance that Johnson will win today’s vote. If such a scenario becomes reality, there will not be another confidence vote for the year – removing a layer of political uncertainty and possibly offering sterling support.

What if Johnson losses no-confidence vote?

If Johnson losses the vote among the 359 Conservative lawmakers, the party will be forced to choose a new leader who will also become prime minister. The initial shock and uncertainty from such a development could trigger a sharp selloff in the pound. According to bookmakers, Jeremy Hunt and Liz Truss are favourites to replace Boris Johnson.

Enough of the politics…

We expect the pound to remain influenced by economic data and BoE rate hike expectations.

As highlighted earlier, market players remain concerned over the UK’s economic outlook with untamed inflation adding insult to injury. Back in April, inflation jumped to 9% – its highest level since 1982 thanks to rising prices for electricity, gas, and motor fuels. Further signs of rising prices may continue to dampen confidence over the UK’s growth outlook, capping the pound’s upside gains. On Tuesday, all eyes will be on the final services PMI figures for May for could provide additional insight into the health of the UK economy. Despite the shaky economic conditions, the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the next monetary policy meeting on June 16.

It may be worth keeping an eye on the US inflation report on Friday which is expected to show consumer prices unchanged at 8.3% in May, matching the figure seen in April. If the report meets or falls below expectations, this may suggest that US inflation may have peaked. Such a development could fuel speculation around the Fed taking a step back from its ultra-aggressive stance – weakening the dollar. A weaker greenback has the ability to the push the GBPUSD higher.

Time for the GBPUSD to breakout?

After trading within a range for the past three weeks, the GBPUSD could be gearing up for a major breakout/down.

Strong support can be found at 1.2450 while resistance may be found at 1.2650. Given how prices are trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Average – bears certainly have some control. On top of this, the currency pair is respecting a downwards channel. A breakdown below 1.2450 could encourage a selloff towards 1.2300 and 1.2150. Alternatively, a move back 1.2650 may open the doors towards 1.2840.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions
06 Jun

Murrey Math Lines 06.06.2022 (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after breaking 8/8, EURUSD is no longer moving within the “overbought area”. In this case, the price is expected to test 7/8, break it, and then continue falling to reach the support at 6/8. Still, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 8/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and grow towards the resistance at +1/8.

EURUSDH4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue trading downwards.

EURUSD_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, GBPUSD is trading below the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating a descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to break 2/8 and then continue falling to reach the support at 1/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance 3/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may grow towards 4/8.

GBPUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue its decline.

GBPUSD_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
06 Jun

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.06.06

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0744
  • Prev Close: 1.0719
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.23%

The European Central Bank is getting more hawkish. At the end of this week, there will be an important monetary policy meeting of the ECB. Experts believe that the ECB will not raise the interest rate at the current meeting, but such a scenario is still possible. ECB president Christine Lagarde in her blog, hinted at a tightening of monetary policy with interest rate hikes of 25 basis points in July and September.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0702, 1.0679, 1.0643, 1.0611, 1.0568, 1.0509, 1.0445, 1.0379
  • Resistance levels: 1.0720, 1.0786, 1.0869

From a technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The MACD indicator has become inactive again, but the buyer’s pressure remains. Under such market conditions, investors can look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0702 or 1.0679, but only with confirmation and short targets. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0720, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0611 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2575
  • Prev Close: 1.2489
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.69%

The dollar index rose on Thursday and Friday, pushing the pound, euro, and other currencies lower. Last week the UK government announced £15 billion of additional financial support for households affected by rising energy prices. The UK economy is facing stagflation, so the government is trying to find ways to avoid a slowdown in the economy. The next step is expected from the Bank of England.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2485, 1.2433, 1.2398, 1.2283, 1.2199
  • Resistance levels: 1.2558, 1.2628, 1.2669, 1.2698, 1.2770

The GBP/USD currency pair trend is bullish on the hourly time frame. The MACD indicator is negative again, and sellers’ pressure has increased. The price is trading below the levels of the moving averages. Under such market conditions, buy deals may be considered from the support level of 1.2485, but only with additional confirmation and short targets. Sell deals should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2558, but with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2433 support level and fixes below, the mid-term downtrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 129.78
  • Prev Close: 130.81
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.79%

USD/JPY quotes rose on Friday on the dollar index growth. Barclays analysts attributed last week’s softer yen to a recovery in risk assets, a rise in overseas yields, a stronger dollar, and higher oil prices causing concerns about Japan’s trade balance. Also, it should be noted that the Fed is tightening monetary policy, while the Bank of Japan, on the contrary, holds a soft policy, and nothing will change soon. As a rule, monetary tightening leads to a strengthening of the national currency, while easing, on the contrary, leads to depreciation. As a result, the USD/JPY quotes tend to grow mid-term.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 130.12, 129.48, 128.76, 128.10, 127.64, 127.24, 127.04
  • Resistance levels: 130.99

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency is bullish. The price is steadily rising, and the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are the first signs of divergence, which means that it is getting harder for the price to move higher. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 130.12, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 130.99 is good for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 128.76, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2569
  • Prev Close: 1.2592
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.19%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends on the dollar index and the oil price dynamics. The dollar index began to show growth again, while oil prices increased. The fundamental picture is now favorable for strengthening both the US dollar and the Canadian dollar, so we should not expect medium-term trend movements here.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2566, 1.2510
  • Resistance levels: 1.2623, 1.2676, 1.2728, 1.2765, 1.2807, 1.2893, 1.2953, 1.3000

The USD/CAD currency pair is bearish in terms of technical analysis. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and the selling pressure remains, but there is divergence on higher time frames. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2566, but it is better to wait for the bullish initiative. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2623, but also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates above 1.2728, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
04 Jun

Euro Currency Speculators continue to boost their bullish bets for 4th Week

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data was the further gains in bullish bets for the Euro currency futures contracts. Euro speculators boosted their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past ten weeks. Over the past four-week time-frame, Euro bets have risen by a total of +58,650 contracts, going from -6,378 net positions on May 3rd to a total of +52,272 net positions this week. This week marks the highest Euro speculator standing in the past twelve weeks.

The recent improvement in Euro positions has taken place with a very strong change in sentiment as just four weeks ago the overall position had fallen into bearish territory. The Euro sentiment has been so bad that analysts have been making predictions for an inevitable decline of the Euro into parity versus the dollar. However, recently there has been rising expectations that the European Central Bank will be more hawkish towards interest rates in the near future (despite the weak outlook for EU GDP growth) and will end their negative interest rate policy.

Over the past few weeks, the EUR/USD exchange rate has rebounded after falling to a multi-year low of 1.0350 in early May. This week the EUR/USD hit a weekly high of 1.0787 before closing at the 1.0719 exchange rate.

Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (13,342 contracts), Brazil real (6,602 contracts), British pound sterling (6,267 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,680 contracts), Mexican peso (5,657 contracts), Japanese yen (5,005 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (597 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-501 contracts), Australian dollar (-3,236 contracts), Swiss franc (-785 contracts) and Bitcoin (-446 contracts).

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that most of the currency markets are below their midpoint (50 percent) of the last 3 years. The Brazil Real, US Dollar Index and Bitcoin are currently in extreme bullish levels.

Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows the recent strong weakness in the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD and CAD) as well as the Swiss franc.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
May-31-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index63,8639837,53891-41,32763,78958
EUR706,3178552,27251-85,1865232,91429
GBP252,88172-74,1052187,17281-13,06729
JPY239,08081-94,43911105,04987-10,61032
CHF49,57940-20,4581029,85187-9,39326
CAD135,92921-7,00734-327687,33444
AUD153,66148-48,6824051,12857-2,44646
NZD55,13453-18,7244021,37463-2,65021
MXN212,8435535,44942-40,143564,69463
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL74,1467345,31695-47,67052,35492
Bitcoin10,9005840392-503010015

 

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 37,538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:85.93.78.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.168.42.8
– Net Position:37,538-41,3273,789
– Gross Longs:54,8592,3555,605
– Gross Shorts:17,32143,6821,816
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.1 to 13.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.55.958.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.6-9.05.2

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 52,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,930 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.551.712.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.163.87.7
– Net Position:52,272-85,18632,914
– Gross Longs:236,553365,43487,138
– Gross Shorts:184,281450,62054,224
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.051.928.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.4-10.124.0

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -74,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,372 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.276.67.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.542.212.9
– Net Position:-74,10587,172-13,067
– Gross Longs:30,788193,78619,446
– Gross Shorts:104,893106,61432,513
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.8 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.681.228.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.98.41.9

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -94,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.482.29.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.938.313.9
– Net Position:-94,439105,049-10,610
– Gross Longs:15,201196,58422,605
– Gross Shorts:109,64091,53533,215
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 12.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.786.931.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.9-12.124.5

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.375.617.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.615.436.3
– Net Position:-20,45829,851-9,393
– Gross Longs:2,64137,4738,596
– Gross Shorts:23,0997,62217,989
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 14.9 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.387.025.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.510.47.5

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.551.524.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.651.718.6
– Net Position:-7,007-3277,334
– Gross Longs:30,52070,00632,660
– Gross Shorts:37,52770,33325,326
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.768.544.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-30.732.5-21.5

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -48,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,236 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.463.112.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:53.129.914.4
– Net Position:-48,68251,128-2,446
– Gross Longs:32,89797,03119,659
– Gross Shorts:81,57945,90322,105
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.757.046.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.422.6-25.6

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -18,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,321 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.676.25.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.637.49.8
– Net Position:-18,72421,374-2,650
– Gross Longs:9,17942,0102,762
– Gross Shorts:27,90320,6365,412
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.0 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.863.321.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-32.032.2-20.4

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 35,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,792 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.841.83.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.160.61.3
– Net Position:35,449-40,1434,694
– Gross Longs:114,48088,8947,396
– Gross Shorts:79,031129,0372,702
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.7 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.556.162.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.9-5.80.6

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 45,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,714 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:71.322.45.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.286.72.7
– Net Position:45,316-47,6702,354
– Gross Longs:52,89616,5954,372
– Gross Shorts:7,58064,2652,018
– Long to Short Ratio:7.0 to 10.3 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.94.892.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.7-0.6-1.6

 

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 849 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:79.61.59.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:75.96.18.6
– Net Position:403-503100
– Gross Longs:8,6801591,033
– Gross Shorts:8,277662933
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.523.215.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.3-20.4-6.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News investing Opinions
03 Jun

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 03.06.2022 (USDCAD, EURUSD, AUDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is testing the bearish channel’s downside border. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen at 1.2625 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.2325. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.2795. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.2875.

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is rising inside the bullish channel. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.0705 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.0955. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.0575. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.0485. To confirm a further uptrend, the price must break the rising channel’s upside border and fix above 1.0845.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is forming a bullish impulse. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.7200 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.7425. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.7025. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6935.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Back to list

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

 

Financial News Forex and Currency News
03 Jun

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.06.03

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0643
  • Prev Close: 1.0745
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.95%

US private-sector jobs increased much less than expected in May, according to ADP data, indicating labor demand is starting to slow amid higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions. The US central bank is trying to reduce demand for labor without raising the unemployment rate too high.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0702, 1.0679, 1.0643, 1.0611, 1.0568, 1.0509, 1.0445, 1.0379
  • Resistance levels: 1.0756, 1.0786, 1.0869

From a technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The MACD indicator is positive again, and buying pressure has returned. Under such market conditions, investors can look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0702 or 1.0679, but only with confirmation and short targets. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0756, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0611 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.06.03:
  • – Eurozone German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2480
  • Prev Close: 1.2572
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.73%

Yesterday and today, there were banking holidays in the UK, but GBP/USD quotes increased against the decline in the dollar index. Investors do not want to buy the pound amid the uncertainty of the Bank of England policy and the fact that the UK economy is slowly sliding into recession.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2558, 1.2502, 1.2471, 1.2437, 1.2398, 1.2283, 1.2199
  • Resistance levels: 1.2628, 1.2669, 1.2698, 1.2770

The GBP/USD currency pair trend is bullish on the hourly time frame. The MACD indicator is positive again, sellers’ pressure has decreased. The price is trading at the levels of the moving averages. Under such market conditions, buy deals may be considered from the support level of 1.2558, but only with additional confirmation and short targets. Sell deals should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2628, but with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2437 support level and fixes below, the mid-term downtrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today. It’s a bank holiday.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 130.09
  • Prev Close: 129.89
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.15%

The fundamental picture for the USD/JPY currency pair remains the same. The Fed is tightening monetary policy, while the Bank of Japan, on the contrary, holds a soft policy, and nothing will change soon. As a rule, monetary tightening leads to a strengthening of the national currency, while easing, on the contrary, leads to depreciation. As a result, the USD/JPY quotes tend to grow mid-term. Japan Services PMI has grown from 50.7 to 52.6, a good sign of economic recovery.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 129.48, 128.76, 128.10, 127.64, 127.24, 127.04
  • Resistance levels: 130.12, 130.99

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency is bullish. The price is steadily growing, the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, and there is no sign of reversal. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 129.48, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 130.12 is good for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 128.10, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
News feed for 2022.06.03:
  • – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2655
  • Prev Close: 1.2569
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.68%

After the Central Bank of Canada raised its overnight base rate by half a percentage point to 1.5%, Deputy Governor Paul Baudry on Thursday gave new guidance on how high borrowing costs could be. The discount rate could now rise to the maximum or even above what the Bank of Canada considers its “neutral range”, estimated at between 2% and 3%. This is a green light for the Canadian currency to strengthen.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2566, 1.2510
  • Resistance levels: 1.2623, 1.2676, 1.2728, 1.2765, 1.2807, 1.2893, 1.2953, 1.3000

The USD/CAD currency pair is bearish in terms of technical analysis. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone. The selling pressure is still there. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2566, but it is better to wait for the bullish initiative. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2623, but also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates above 1.2728, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
02 Jun

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 02.06.2022 (USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming several reversal patterns, such as Inverted Hammer, close to the support level, USDCAD is reversing in the form of another ascending impulse. In this case, the upside target may be at 1.2700. However, an alternative scenario implies that the asset may fall to break the support level at 1.2575 and continue the descending tendency without any pullbacks towards the resistance area.

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, AUDUSD has formed an Engulfing reversal pattern near the resistance area. At the moment, the asset may reverse and start a new descending impulse. In this case, the downside correctional target may be the support level at 0.7110. After testing the level, the price may rebound from it and resume the ascending tendency. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may grow to reach 0.7260 and continue the uptrend without any corrections.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after testing the resistance area, the pair has formed several reversal patterns, including Doji. At the moment, USDCHF may reverse in the form of a new descending impulse. In this case, the downside target may be at 0.9530. After testing the support level, the price may break it and continue trading downwards. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may continue growing to reach 0.9690 before resuming the descending tendency.

USDCHF

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
02 Jun

Murrey Math Lines 02.06.2022 (USDCHF, GOLD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDCHF is trading below the 200-day Moving Average to indicate a possible descending tendency. In this case, the pair is expected to rebound from 3/8 and then resume falling to reach the support at 1/8. However, this scenario may be cancelled if the price breaks the resistance at 3/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and grow towards 4/8.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue its decline.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD is also trading below the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating a descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to break 3/8 and continue moving downwards to reach the support at 2/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance at 4/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and grow towards 5/8.

Gold
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue trading downwards.

Gold

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
← Previous Page
Next Page →