InvestMacro

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The GBP/USD pair climbed to 1.3064 on Thursday, marking a 2.46% gain over the past four weeks and a 2.87% increase against the US dollar over the last 12 months. The British pound continues to strengthen, outperforming many of its major counterparts.

Key factors driving the GBP/USD rally

The UK is closely monitoring developments in US tariffs, which could have significant implications for its economy. While the new tariffs potentially threaten global trade, the UK remains in a relatively favourable position compared to the EU, Canada, China, and Mexico.

Reasons for the UK’s advantage:

• The US baseline tariff rate for the UK is just 10% – the lowest among major US trading partners
• The UK’s trade relationship with the US is relatively balanced, with a smaller share of reciprocal trade, reducing immediate risks

However, uncertainty looms. Policymakers anticipate a possible reversal of US tariffs, but the broader impact remains unpredictable, whether on inflation, global GDP, or trade dynamics.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD 

H4 chart perspective

• The pair has broken through 1.2988, surging towards 1.3095
• A pullback to retest 1.2988 (now acting as support) could occur before another upward push towards 1.3103.
• MACD confirmation: the signal line remains above zero and is trending upwards, supporting bullish momentum

H1 chart perspective

• After consolidating around 1.2988, the pair broke higher, targeting 1.3095
• Once this level is reached, a correction back to 1.2988 could follow
• Stochastic indicator: the signal line is above 80 but turning downwards, suggesting a potential near-term exhaustion.

Conclusion

The pound’s resilience against the dollar reflects both fundamental strength and technical momentum. While the UK benefits from a less exposed trade stance, traders should watch tariff developments and key technical levels to gauge the next significant move.

interest rate decisions.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The EUR/USD pair continues its gradual decline, erasing its recent technical rebound and retreating to 1.0795. Traders remain cautious as key economic and political developments loom.

Key factors driving the EUR/USD movement

Today (2 April) marks a critical date for global markets as new US tariffs on trading partners take effect. Investors are closely watching for President Donald Trump’s final decision, which could escalate trade tensions.

Earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that these tariffs could serve as leverage, pushing partner countries to negotiate lower duties. Meanwhile, recent US economic data has added to the uncertainty:

• Manufacturing activity contracted in March (the first decline of 2025)
• Prices increased for the second consecutive month, reflecting tariff-driven inflationary pressures
• Job openings declined in February, though layoffs remained low, indicating a potential cooling in the labour market

Market focus now shifts to Wednesday’s ADP employment report and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which will shape expectations for the Fed’s next interest rate decisions.

Technical outlook: EUR/USD

H4 chart analysis

• The pair declined to 1.0784 before correcting to 1.0825
• The next likely move is a continued downward trend towards 1.0695 (first target)
• A pullback to 1.0825 (testing from below) may follow (second target)
• MACD confirmation: the signal line remains below zero, pointing sharply downward and supporting further bearish momentum

H1 chart analysis

• The pair is forming the fifth leg of a downward wave, targeting 1.0695
• A short-term decline toward 1.0715 is expected today, possibly followed by a correction to 1.0772
• Stochastic oscillator confirmation: the signal line is below 50 and trending downward towards 20, reinforcing bearish momentum

Conclusion

With trade war risks resurfacing and mixed US economic signals, the EUR/USD remains under pressure. A break below 1.0695 could open the door for deeper declines, while a rebound above 1.0825 may signal temporary relief. Traders should monitor US employment data and trade policy updates for fresh directional cues.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The GBP/USD pair is consolidating around 1.2941 this Friday as the British pound continues to outperform its peers. Unlike other major currencies, the pound has remained relatively insulated from escalating global trade tensions, giving it a distinct advantage.

Why the pound is outperforming

The UK’s distance from ongoing trade wars has shielded sterling from the worst volatility triggered by US tariff policies. While other economies brace for the impact of trade restrictions, the UK, at least in theory, faces fewer immediate risks from President Trump’s protectionist measures.

Adding to sterling’s resilience is the fiscal plan of UK Treasury Chief Rachel Reeves, which outlines spending reductions totalling 14 billion GBP. This move could significantly boost the economy’s fiscal potential, creating a 10 billion GBP reserve for future spending needs. As a result, the government may reduce bond issuance, easing pressure on public finances.

Mid-week, the pound dipped slightly following the release of UK inflation figures. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month in February, rebounding from a -0.1% decline in January. On an annual basis, inflation eased to 2.8% (down from 3.0%), likely due to seasonal energy demand during the colder months. However, the market reaction was short-lived, suggesting sustained confidence in the pound’s strength.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD

H4 Chart: The pair is consolidating near 1.2934, with a potential upward extension towards 1.2998. A subsequent downward wave towards 1.2784 remains possible, supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains below zero but is trending upward.

H1 Chart: After hitting a local high at 1.2970, a pullback towards 1.2934 (testing support from above) is likely. A rebound towards 1.2998 could follow before a potential decline to 1.2888. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downward towards 20.

Conclusion

While short-term fluctuations persist, the pound’s resilience, supported by favourable fiscal policies and its detachment from global trade conflicts, positions it as a standout performer. Traders should monitor key technical levels for potential breakouts or reversals in the coming sessions.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.0778 on Thursday, staging a modest correction but remaining under pressure amid deteriorating market sentiment.

Key drivers weighing on EUR/USD

The latest sell-off is driven by heightened trade war fears. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars and light trucks, set to take effect on 2 April. The move, seen as retaliation against foreign tariffs on US goods, escalates trade tensions. Markets view this as a major risk, with potential consequences including slower US economic growth and higher inflation.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, fresh economic data revealed:

• US consumer confidence plunged to a four-year low
• Core capital goods orders (excluding defence and aircraft) declined, breaking a three-month growth streak – a worrying sign for business investment

Investors now await Friday’s Core PCE Price Index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – and the revised US Q4 2024 GDP estimate, which could set near-term market direction.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market completed a downward move to 1.0733. A correction towards 1.0855 is likely today. Once this correction ends, a new decline towards 1.0707 may begin. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator: its signal line is below zero and pointing downward to new lows.

On the H1 EUR/USD chart, the market has formed a consolidation range around the level of 1.0826 before breaking lower to 1.0733. This move has nearly met its local downside target. Today, a corrective pullback towards 1.0826 (testing from below) is possible. Once this correction ends, a renewed decline towards 1.0700 could unfold. This move is viewed as the first wave of a broader downtrend. If this level is reached, another bounce towards 1.0826 cannot be ruled out. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator: its signal line is above 80 and preparing to drop towards 20.

Conclusion

With trade war risks weighing on sentiment and technical indicators pointing to continued downside, EUR/USD could test 1.0700 in the coming sessions. Traders should monitor US inflation data and GDP revisions for confirmation of the next major move.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair climbed to 150.37 on Wednesday, indicating a fading correction from the previous session as trading volumes declined.

Key drivers behind the USD/JPY surge

Investors are shunning risk ahead of potential US retaliatory tariffs, which could weigh on Japanese exports – a key pillar of the economy. Meanwhile, demand for risk assets, including equities and commodities, has further eroded support for the safe-haven yen.

The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) January meeting minutes, released earlier, revealed policymakers’ willingness to consider further rate hikes, contingent on wage growth and inflation trends. One member even suggested rates could reach 1% in the second half of fiscal 2025.

However, the BoJ’s decision in March to hold rates at 0.5% reinforced its cautious stance, with officials wary of global economic risks, particularly potential US trade measures. Given the central bank’s reluctance to tighten policy soon, the yen lacks a key bullish catalyst.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market has formed a growth wave structure up to 150.93. After reaching this target, a pullback to 148.73 is possible, effectively marking the consolidation range at the wave’s peak. A breakout to the upside would indicate a continuation of the trend towards 153.60. This is a local target, after which a correction to 151.20 cannot be ruled out. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD indicator: its signal line remains above zero and has exited the histogram zone. A decline towards the zero line is expected.

On the H1 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a correction up to 149.30. Once this pullback is complete, a new growth wave towards 150.97 may begin. This is also a local target. Technically, the Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, as its signal line is above 80 and preparing to decline towards 20.

Conclusion

With the BoJ maintaining a dovish stance and risk sentiment weighing on the yen, USD/JPY bulls remain in control. Traders should watch for a breakout above 150.93 to confirm further upside, while corrections could offer short-term pullback opportunities.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By ForexTime 

• GBPUSD ↑ almost 3% MTD
• Wednesday = UK Spring Statement + UK CPI
  
• Over past year UK CPI triggered moves of ↑ 0.5% & ↓ 0.3%
  
• Across the Atlantic = Fed speeches + US PCE report 
• Bloomberg FX model: GBPUSD has 75% of trading within 1.2799 – 1.3081 over 1-week period

The week ahead is stacked with high-impact data, political events and speeches by numerous policymakers:

 

Sunday, 23rd March

• China Development Forum 2025 in Beijing

   

Monday, 24th  March 

• CHINAH: BYD earnings
• TWN: Taiwan jobless rate
• GER40: Germany HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMI
• GBP: UK S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI, BoE Governor Bailey speech
• US500: US S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI, Atlanta Fed Bostic speech

   

Tuesday, 25th  March 

• Boao Forum for Asia – dubbed “China’s Davos”
• GER40: Germany IFO business climate
• MXN: Mexico retail sales, international reserves
• TWN: Taiwan industrial production
• RUS2000: US new home sales, Conference Board consumer confidence, New York Fed Williams speech

   

Wednesday, 26th  March 

• AUD: Australia CPI
• CAD: BoC meeting minutes
• SG20: Singapore industrial production
• GBP: UK CPI, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers “spring statement”
• US500: CBO releases estimate of when US debt will be reached, St. Louis Fed Musalem speech
• World Economic Forum symposium in Hong Kong

   

Thursday, 27th March 

• MXN: Mexico trade, rate decision
• USDInd: US revised 4Q GDP, initial jobless claims, Richmond Fed Barkin speech

   

Friday, 28th March 

• EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
• GER40: Germany unemployment
• JPY: Japan Tokyo CPI
• GBP: UK Q4 GDP (final), retail sales
• USDInd: US February PCE report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Atlanta Fed Bostic speech

 

GBPUSD could be set for a week of mayhem due to economic and political forces! 

The major currency pair has struggled to push beyond 1.30 despite the BoE’s slightly hawkish vote split on rates. 

Nevertheless, prices have jumped as much as 7.5% from the mid-January low with month-to-date gains up almost 3%. 

Imagen

 

Here are 4 things to keep an eye on:

 

1 – UK Spring Statement

On Wednesday 26^th March, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will present the Spring Statement to Parliament.

Investors will pay close details on key updates concerning the country’s finances, and government plans for tax and public spending. The UK’s growth forecast is set for a major downgrade with Reeves expected to announce huge spending cuts over tax rises. This event will certainly shape sentiment toward the UK economy and British Pound.

• Sterling is likely to sink if the Spring budget dents optimism over the UK economy and fuels bets around lower UK interest rates.
• Should the Spring budget soothe investor fears over the UK’s outlook, the pound may rise. 

 

2 – BoE Bailey Speech + UK February CPI

Just days after the BoE voted to leave rates unchanged, BoE governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak on the UK economy on Monday 24^th March. Any fresh insight offered on future policy moves may move the Pound.

But the real market mover for Sterling could be the latest UK inflation figures published on Wednesday 26^th March. Signs of cooling price pressures may impact BoE cut bets. 

Annual inflation is expected to cool 2.9% from 3.0%, while the monthly print is seen rising 0.5% from -0.1%.

Over the past 12 months, the UK CPI has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.5% or declines of 0.3% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Note: Beyond the CPI report, the PMI report on Monday and retail sales figures on Friday may provide more insight into the health of the UK economy. Should they disappoint, this could weaken the Pound. The same is true vice-versa.

 

3- US February PCE report + Fed speeches

Across the Atlantic, a string of speeches by Federal Reserve officials could provide some fresh insight into the Fed’s thinking on rates.

But the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure on Friday 28th March may sway rate cut bets. 

In the March policy meeting, Powell sought to calm fears over Trump’s tariffs suggesting any rise in prices would be “transitory”. So, this may place extra focus on US inflation reports moving forward, leading to increased market sensitivity.

The PCE core deflator is expected to remain unchanged at 0.3% MoM but rise 2.7% from 2.6% annually. Ultimately signs of sticky price pressures may push back Fed cut bets.

Over the past 12 months, the US PCE report has triggered upside moves as much as 0.6% or declines of 0.8% in a 6-hour window post-release. 

Note: It’s not only the PCE data that move the USD, PMIs, consumer confidence data and initial jobless figures may result in price swings.

 

4- Technical forces

The GBPUSD is back within a range on the daily charts with support at 1.2900 and resistance at 1.3000. Despite respecting a bullish channel, the RSI has been overbought since early March. 

• A breakout above 1.3000 may open a path toward 1.3100.
• A breakdown below 1.2900 could trigger a decline toward 1.2870 and the 200-day SMA at 1.2800. 

Imagen

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 75% chance that GBPUSD will trade within the 1.2799 – 1.3081 range, using current levels as a base, over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The EUR/USD pair is trending downward, approaching 1.0829 on Friday as investors evaluate the latest developments in US Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Key drivers behind EUR/USD movement

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve held its current interest rate and overall monetary policy framework unchanged. However, the central bank signalled that two rate cuts could be expected later this year. In its commentary, the Fed highlighted growing risks to economic recovery, employment stability, and inflation trends.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed concerns about the inflationary impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, describing them as temporary. Powell also emphasised that the Fed would not rush into further rate cuts, reinforcing a cautious approach to monetary easing.

Adding to market uncertainty, Trump’s retaliatory tariffs – targeting countries that have imposed duties on US goods – are set to take effect on 2 April. Over the past 24 hours, the US dollar has strengthened amid fears of slowing global economic growth and escalating trade tensions. These factors have reinforced risk-averse sentiment among investors.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD declined to 1.0815, followed by a correction to 1.0860. A further decline towards 1.0765 is highly likely, with this level remaining the primary target. The MACD indicator supports this scenario. Its signal line is below zero, sloping sharply downward, indicating potential new lows.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD broke through the 1.0864 level and formed a bearish wave structure, reaching 1.0815. Today, a corrective move towards 1.0860 (testing from below) is likely. Once this correction concludes, the pair could resume its downward trajectory, targeting 1.0811. This movement marks the third wave of the downtrend. After reaching this level, another retracement towards 1.0864 is possible. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line below 20 and trending upward towards the 50 level.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure as the Fed’s cautious stance and global trade tensions bolster the US dollar. Technical indicators suggest further downside potential, with key support levels at 1.0765 and 1.0811. Investors should monitor upcoming economic data and trade developments for additional insights into the pair’s direction.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The GBP/USD pair surged to 1.3008 on Thursday, marking its highest level in 4.5 months. This upward momentum has fuelled speculation about additional gains for the British pound.

Global Factors to Drive GBP/USD Movement

The market has largely priced in the US dollar’s decline, which has provided a tailwind for the pound. The UK is in a favourable position amid ongoing global trade tensions. With limited trade ties to the US, the country is less exposed to major tariffs. Its neutral stance on global conflicts further supports the pound’s stability.

Today’s Bank of England (BoE) meeting is unlikely to significantly affect the pound, as markets have already priced in the expectation that interest rates will remain at 4.50%. Investors will instead focus on the BoE’s commentary, which is expected to maintain a cautious tone. Key points of interest include updates on inflation and GDP estimates.

The BoE’s forecasts are expected to remain unchanged, underscoring its data-dependent approach. The central bank’s wording is expected to signal a gradual approach to future rate cuts, reinforcing a measured and cautious monetary stance.

Looking ahead, global developments will have a greater impact on the pound’s trajectory than domestic factors, with its outlook remaining positive given the current geopolitical and economic climate.

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD completed a growth wave, reaching 1.3013. Currently, the pair is consolidating below this level. A downward extension of the consolidation range to 1.2925 is anticipated, followed by a potential upward wave targeting 1.3048. Beyond this, a downward correction to 1.2800 could materialise. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is trending downward toward the zero level.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is forming a downward wave structure toward 1.2925. Once this wave completes, a move higher to 1.3048 is possible. Further ahead, a decline to 1.2717 remains a possibility. This outlook is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below 50 and trending downward toward 20.

Conclusion

The pound’s recent rally to a 4.5-month high reflects a combination of US dollar weakness and the UK’s advantageous position in global trade dynamics. While the BoE meeting is unlikely to deliver surprises, the central bank’s cautious tone and data-dependent approach will be closely watched. Technically, GBP/USD is poised for further gains, though a corrective pullback is possible. Investors should watch global developments, which will likely dictate the pound’s next moves.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.