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Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen Bets Up to New Record High

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were decisively higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (35,411 contracts) with the EuroFX (25,995 contracts), the Mexican Peso (14,057 contracts), the Australian Dollar (11,143 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (6,737 contracts), the British Pound Sterling (5,042 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,438 contracts) and Bitcoin (571 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the New Zealand Dollar (-1,546 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,036 contracts) and with the Swiss Franc (-1,101 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen bets up to New Record High

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued boost in bullish bets for the Japanese yen speculators.

Japanese yen speculator positions have continued their remarkable run of bullish bets since January and increased for a sixth consecutive weekly gain. This week’s rise in speculator bets was by over +35,000 contracts and marks the fifth time out of the past six weeks positions have gained by over +10,000 contracts.

Overall, the last six weeks have added a total of +125,391 contracts to the net positioning and has brought the total net position to a new all-time record high of +95,980 contracts. The previous record high was +71,870 contracts that took place in 2016 and the previous high (before 2016) was in March of 2008.

Japanese 10-Year Bond Yields

The yen exchange rate, despite the record high sentiment, has not exactly shared the same upside as of yet. The yen futures dipped this week by approximately -1 percent but had risen in five out of the previous six weeks. The yen exchange versus the US Dollar remains close to the lowest levels since the 1990’s at the 0.0066 futures price level and the USDJPY currency pair still holds above the major level of 150.00.

The Bank of Japan has raised its interest rate this year to the highest level in 17 years with some forecasts expecting the BOJ to increase it at least one more time. The Japanese 10-year bond yield has been rising strongly as well with the recent yield of 1.45 percent marking the highest level since 2009.

The strengthening speculator sentiment could signal a shift in the views toward the Japanese currency and which could take the currency’s fortunes some time to build upon. It could also possibly be a false start in which an unwinding of the speculator bets would once again put downward pressure on the JPY exchange rate into new multi-decade depths. Either way, this development bears watching.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) leads the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (56 percent) and the Brazilian Real (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (1 percent) and the EuroFX (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (21 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (26 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (39.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (41.4 percent)
EuroFX (19.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (9.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (38.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (35.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (87.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (20.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (23.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (26.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (23.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (44.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (36.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (1.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (43.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (36.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (54.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.0 percent)
Bitcoin (55.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (43.3 percent)

Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (45 percent) and the Brazilian Real (35 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (23 percent), the EuroFX (13 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-2 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (6.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (16.8 percent)
EuroFX (13.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (4.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (1.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-6.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (44.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (28.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-1.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (22.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (11.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-1.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (1.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (35.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (32.2 percent)
Bitcoin (-24.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-34.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 15,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.1	17.2	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	58.9	7.0
– Net Position:	15,732	-15,861	129
– Gross Longs:	25,906	6,543	2,808
– Gross Shorts:	10,174	22,404	2,679
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	62.8	27.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-3.1	-16.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -25,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 25,995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	55.0	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	55.1	8.0
– Net Position:	-25,425	-640	26,065
– Gross Longs:	182,699	362,477	78,634
– Gross Shorts:	208,124	363,117	52,569
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.1	81.0	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.3	-16.7	31.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,463 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,042 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.0	47.5	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	44.4	17.8
– Net Position:	4,463	6,186	-10,649
– Gross Longs:	74,089	95,277	24,992
– Gross Shorts:	69,626	89,091	35,641
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.1	63.8	39.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-3.5	10.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 95,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 35,411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,569 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.2	28.3	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	61.4	10.0
– Net Position:	95,980	-108,945	12,965
– Gross Longs:	171,751	93,060	45,737
– Gross Shorts:	75,771	202,005	32,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	95.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.8	-46.1	35.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -39,460 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,359 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	84.2	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	32.0	22.2
– Net Position:	-39,460	50,769	-11,309
– Gross Longs:	5,019	81,861	10,235
– Gross Shorts:	44,479	31,092	21,544
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	82.2	30.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	-9.1	26.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -137,906 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -144,643 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	81.7	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.6	37.0	10.2
– Net Position:	-137,906	142,821	-4,915
– Gross Longs:	20,523	261,075	27,768
– Gross Shorts:	158,429	118,254	32,683
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	74.9	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-15.9	24.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -45,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,723 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	56.5	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.9	28.4	16.7
– Net Position:	-45,580	52,332	-6,752
– Gross Longs:	50,873	105,108	24,241
– Gross Shorts:	96,453	52,776	30,993
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	61.1	31.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.7	-20.8	7.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -53,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,546 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,163 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	79.8	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.6	18.9	5.9
– Net Position:	-53,709	55,044	-1,335
– Gross Longs:	13,628	72,094	3,958
– Gross Shorts:	67,337	17,050	5,293
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.1	97.7	36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	0.5	15.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 28,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,057 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	49.4	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	66.8	3.9
– Net Position:	28,730	-26,207	-2,523
– Gross Longs:	70,337	74,354	3,415
– Gross Shorts:	41,607	100,561	5,938
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.4	60.7	8.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.6	-11.5	-1.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 940 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.9	51.1	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.3	53.7	1.6
– Net Position:	2,378	-3,962	1,584
– Gross Longs:	63,879	77,856	3,952
– Gross Shorts:	61,501	81,818	2,368
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.3	45.5	29.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.4	-37.5	15.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 204 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.3	4.6	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.6	5.5	4.4
– Net Position:	204	-261	57
– Gross Longs:	25,737	1,489	1,480
– Gross Shorts:	25,533	1,750	1,423
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.7	56.9	14.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.7	31.4	-9.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

02 Mar

Speculator Extremes: Yen, US Bonds, NZ Dollar & Cotton lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 25th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position continued higher and comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 44.8 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 95,980 net contracts this week with a boost of 35,411 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

US Treasury Bond

The US Treasury Bond speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The US Treasury Bond speculator level is now at a 97.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 14.2 this week. The speculator position registered 40,912 net contracts this week with a weekly reduction by -6,869 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 94.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 28.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 3,897 net contracts this week with a decline of -1,193 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 90.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 11.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 441,161 net contracts this week with a decrease by -27,563 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level sits at a 87.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5.6 this week.

The speculator position was -227,735 net contracts this week with a rise of 18,507 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 1.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -1.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -53,709 net contracts this week with a dip by -1,546 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 4.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.1 this week. The speculator position was -43,486 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,418 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 12.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -36,112 net contracts this week with a drop by -14,516 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 14.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -60.5 this week. The speculator position was 171,198 net contracts this week with a reduction by -26,396 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 19.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 8.1 this week. The speculator position was -1,625,773 net contracts this week with a gain of 111,760 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

27 Feb

USD/JPY steadies as the market consolidates after fresh lows

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY is consolidating near 149.33 on Thursday, with the yen pausing its rally while holding near four-month highs against the USD. This stabilisation follows renewed support for the US dollar amid concerns that US President Donald Trump’s trade tariff policies could escalate once again.

Key drivers influencing USD/JPY

Trump recently announced plans to review the possibility of imposing reciprocal 25% tariffs on European cars and other goods. Additionally, he confirmed that tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada will take effect on 2 April rather than the initially planned 4 March. These developments have intensified trade tensions, lending support to the USD.

Despite today’s consolidation, the yen remains strong, with expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may continue raising interest rates this year following Q4 inflation data.

Additionally, the JPY remains in demand as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing uncertainty and underlying risks in global financial markets.

A crucial set of economic data will be released on Friday, including figures on industrial production, retail sales, and Tokyo’s inflation rate. These reports could provide further insight into the BoJ’s future monetary policy trajectory.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY completed a downward wave to 148.55. The market is now forming a consolidation range at this low. A corrective move towards 151.80 could develop if the price breaks upward, marking the first key target. Upon reaching this level, a further corrective decline towards 150.20 may follow. The MACD indicator confirms this scenario, with its signal line positioned below zero but pointing upward, indicating potential correction.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is forming an upward wave structure towards 150.00. A broad consolidation range is developing around 149.25. If the price breaks upwards from this range, a correction towards 151.80 could unfold. After reaching this target, the pair could pull back to 150.20. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line above 50 and pointing upwards, suggesting short-term bullish momentum.

Conclusion

USD/JPY has temporarily stabilised after recent declines, with technical indicators suggesting a potential corrective move towards 151.80. However, upcoming Japanese economic data and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties could introduce volatility. Market participants will closely monitor BoJ signals and further developments regarding US trade tariffs, which could impact the yen’s safe-haven appeal.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 Feb

EUR/USD appreciates as optimism builds around Germany’s fiscal plans

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD climbed to 1.0504 on Wednesday, nearing its monthly high of 1.0528. The pair gained momentum following positive news from Germany, fuelling market optimism.

Key factors driving EUR/USD

Reports have emerged suggesting that Germany is considering the creation of a 200-billion-euro emergency fund, boosting expectations for increased local fiscal spending.

Additionally, Friedrich Merz, a leading candidate for the next German Chancellor, has proposed reforming the country’s debt brake to allow for more flexible financing of key expenditures. This could include tax cuts, lower energy prices, and a significant increase in defence spending – all of which could stimulate the German economy and support the euro.

Meanwhile, market participants are closely analysing recent comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) comments ahead of next week’s policy meeting. The ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates for the fifth consecutive time. However, some policymakers, including Isabel Schnabel, suggest that the central bank may soon need to pause or halt rate cuts altogether. The euro could find additional support if the ECB signals a more cautious stance on further easing,

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD completed a growth wave to 1.0524 and is now developing a downward wave towards 1.0450. A breakout below this level would open the potential for a further decline towards 1.0380. After reaching this target, a corrective rebound towards 1.0450 is likely. The MACD indicator confirms this scenario, with its signal line positioned above zero but pointing sharply downward.

On the H1 chart, the market declined to 1.0453, followed by a correction to 1.0524. The likelihood of the downward wave continuing towards 1.0450 remains high. If this level is breached, the correction could extend towards 1.0380, with the broader trend potentially targeting 1.0373. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line above 50 and pointing decisively downward.

Conclusion

EUR/USD benefits from renewed optimism surrounding Germany’s potential fiscal expansion, but downside risks persist due to the uncertainty surrounding ECB policy. While technical indicators suggest an ongoing downward wave, the pair’s movement will depend on key support levels around 1.0450 and 1.0380. The upcoming ECB meeting remains a critical event that could shape the euro’s near-term direction.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

23 Feb

Speculators push US Dollar Index & Japanese Yen bullish bets higher

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 18th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Euro, Australian & Canadian Dollars

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while three markets had lower speculator contracts and one market saw no change.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (13,005 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (8,862 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (6,191 contracts), the Japanese Yen (5,954 contracts), the British Pound (2,589 contracts), the US Dollar Index (1,472 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (386 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the New Zealand Dollar (-2,827 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-1,177 contracts) and with the Brazilian Real (-140 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

In an extremely rare occurrence this week (that likely will be updated later), Bitcoin (0 contracts) saw no change in its futures contracts for the speculator positioning.

Large Currency Speculators push US Dollar Index & Japanese Yen bullish bets higher

Highlighting the COT data for the week was a rebound in some of the most bearish currency speculator positions (EUR, CAD & AUD) while the Japanese yen and the US Dollar Index speculators pushed their bets higher.

Here is a Quick Currency Roundup:

The US Dollar Index positioning rose once again this week and gained for the third week in a row. The USD Index bets has now risen in nine out of the past ten weeks and the current bullish position has grown to the highest level since September. Despite the positioning gains, the US Dollar Index futures price (DX) has actually dipped for the past three straight weeks. The DX closed the week at the 106.52 level and after the recent bullish momentum hit a roadblock around the 109.00-110.00 resistance level numerous times over the past month. Currently, the DX sits at support that used to be resistance in the recent past at 106.50.

The Euro speculator bets jumped this week by over +13,000 contracts after falling in three out of the past four weeks. The current speculator level sits at -51,420 contracts which is in extreme bearish territory compared to the past three years of positioning. The Euro exchange rate versus the USD has been trading at the lowest levels since 2022 when the EURUSD exchange went below parity for the first time in decades. The EURUSD recently bounced off support levels at 1.0250 but remains in a downtrend that has seen the Euro fall approximately 9 percent vs the USD since September.

The Japanese yen speculator positioning gained once again this week for the fifth straight week. The current speculator level leads all the currencies in net bullish positions at +60,569 contracts and has jumped by +89,980 contracts in just the past five weeks (going from -14,673 contracts five weeks ago to this week over +60k contracts). The turnaround in sentiment has also been felt in the yen exchange rate versus the US Dollar which has risen in five out of the past six weeks. The USDJPY currency pair closed below 150.00 this week for the first time since October which is a gain for the yen by over 6 percent since the beginning of the year.

The Australian dollar speculators boosted their bets by over +8,000 contracts this week to bring the total spec standing to -56,723 contracts. The AUD speculator standing has had a sharply bearish end to 2024 and start to this year as the spec level has fallen by -88,499 contracts since the beginning of December. The AUD positions have declined in nine out of the past twelve weeks but have rebounded in each of the past two weeks. The Australian currency recently dipped to the 0.6098 exchange level vs the USD which marked the lowest exchange rate since 2020. The AUDUSD currency pair closed the week at the 0.6355 exchange rate which is off the recent lows but remains in a downtrend currently.

The Canadian dollar speculative position improved again this week and rose for a second straight week. The CAD positioning has been extremely bearish and above the -100,000 contract level for nineteen straight weeks and overall, the CAD position has been in bearish territory for eighty-one consecutive weeks. Despite this extreme bearishness, the speculator positions have actually been positive in seven out of the past nine weeks. The Canadian dollar exchange rate versus the US Dollar dipped modestly this week but had gained in the previous two weeks. The CAD futures price had recently fallen to the lowest level in over 20 years under the 0.6800 threshold but managed to bounce off long-term support around 0.6820-0.6875. This level has proved to be a strong turnaround level in both 2016 and 2020 and time will only tell if this turns out to be a similar case.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (98 percent) and the Brazilian Real (53 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (3 percent) and the EuroFX (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Canadian Dollar (23 percent) and the Swiss Franc (23 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (41.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (38.4 percent)
EuroFX (9.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (4.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (35.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (34.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (97.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (95.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (23.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (22.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (23.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (20.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (36.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (29.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (2.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (6.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (36.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (36.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.1 percent)
Bitcoin (43.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (43.3 percent)

Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (32 percent) and the Brazilian Real (32 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (17 percent), the Canadian Dollar (15 percent) and the Australian Dollar (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-7 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (16.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (17.5 percent)
EuroFX (4.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (2.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-6.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-10.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (32.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (25.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-12.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (11.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (11.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (4.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (2.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-1.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (1.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-2.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (32.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (25.3 percent)
Bitcoin (-34.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-1.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,768 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,296 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	69.5	18.9	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	63.3	7.5
– Net Position:	16,768	-17,057	289
– Gross Longs:	26,729	7,275	3,161
– Gross Shorts:	9,961	24,332	2,872
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	60.5	29.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-13.6	-14.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -51,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 13,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	56.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.8	52.5	7.9
– Net Position:	-51,420	26,195	25,225
– Gross Longs:	170,320	361,239	75,697
– Gross Shorts:	221,740	335,044	50,472
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.2	90.1	29.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-6.4	13.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.2	49.2	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.5	43.9	16.9
– Net Position:	-579	10,797	-10,218
– Gross Longs:	73,564	100,001	24,129
– Gross Shorts:	74,143	89,204	34,347
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.9	65.7	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	6.6	-3.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 60,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,954 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,615 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	29.9	15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	54.8	12.2
– Net Position:	60,569	-70,193	9,624
– Gross Longs:	147,566	84,001	43,985
– Gross Shorts:	86,997	154,194	34,361
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.8	2.7	87.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.3	-33.3	23.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,359 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	83.7	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.4	31.1	22.4
– Net Position:	-38,359	51,505	-13,146
– Gross Longs:	7,047	81,921	8,807
– Gross Shorts:	45,406	30,416	21,953
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.2	83.4	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	-4.8	14.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -144,643 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,191 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -150,834 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	82.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.3	35.6	10.3
– Net Position:	-144,643	151,212	-6,569
– Gross Longs:	21,276	266,233	26,645
– Gross Shorts:	165,919	115,021	33,214
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.1	78.4	22.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-17.0	18.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -56,723 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,585 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	58.0	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.6	26.2	15.5
– Net Position:	-56,723	60,353	-3,630
– Gross Longs:	46,918	110,010	25,863
– Gross Shorts:	103,641	49,657	29,493
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.0	65.9	39.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-13.5	15.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -52,163 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,336 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	80.4	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	73.0	20.2	6.0
– Net Position:	-52,163	53,832	-1,669
– Gross Longs:	13,048	71,887	3,718
– Gross Shorts:	65,211	18,055	5,387
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.9	96.3	32.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-3.7	10.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,850 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.6	52.7	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	61.2	3.7
– Net Position:	14,673	-12,824	-1,849
– Gross Longs:	63,852	78,851	3,749
– Gross Shorts:	49,179	91,675	5,598
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.2	67.6	12.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-1.2	-0.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.5	31.0	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.4	33.6	2.5
– Net Position:	940	-2,216	1,276
– Gross Longs:	50,763	26,471	3,444
– Gross Shorts:	49,823	28,687	2,168
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.0	47.2	28.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.2	-33.8	12.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of 0 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.9	5.0	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.0	4.5	3.8
– Net Position:	-367	141	226
– Gross Longs:	27,367	1,680	1,519
– Gross Shorts:	27,734	1,539	1,293
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.3	66.9	27.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.0	38.6	0.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 Feb

EUR/USD poised to renew two-month highs as buying momentum builds

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair is hovering around 1.0503, extending its rally since midweek. The major currency pair has climbed to a two-month high, with market sentiment favouring further gains.

Key drivers behind EUR/USD’s rise

A decline in US Treasury bond yields has weighed on the US dollar, following a series of weaker-than-expected US economic reports and dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials.

Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, stated that he does not expect the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index to be as concerning as the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. As a key inflation measure for the Federal Reserve, the Core PCE significantly influences monetary policy expectations.

Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned of stagflation risks and the potential challenges in setting future policy.

The latest US jobless claims data further raised concerns, showing an increase to 219,000 from the previous 213,000, exceeding the forecast of 214,000.

In the eurozone, the euro could see further upside if the German election outcome triggers additional short-covering in EUR/USD.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has completed a growth wave to 1.0470, forming a consolidation range around this level. The market has since broken higher, paving the way for further gains towards 1.0544. A correction towards 1.0385 may follow after reaching this level. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing upwards, indicating continued bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the pair executed a growth wave to 1.0470, followed by a narrow consolidation range around this level. The likelihood of an upward breakout towards 1.0520 remains high. After reaching this level, a correction to 1.0470 could occur before the growth wave resumes towards 1.0544. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook, with its signal line above 80 and trending towards 20, suggesting a possible pullback before further gains.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains in an uptrend, supported by weakening US Treasury yields and a cautious Fed outlook. If bullish momentum continues, the pair may extend gains towards 1.0544. However, a corrective move could follow before further upside. The outcome of the German election could also influence short-term price action, potentially driving additional volatility.

Disclaimer

Forex and Currency News Opinions

20 Feb

USD/JPY hits two-month low as demand for safe-haven yen surges

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair has fallen to a two-month low, trading near 150.07, as geopolitical and trade uncertainties drive investors towards the safe-haven yen.

Key factors behind JPY strength

The yen’s rise is largely due to growing global risk aversion. Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, sparking fresh concerns about a global trade war.

Additionally, the market is reacting to Trump’s foreign policy statements, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has further intensified the demand for safe-haven assets, including the yen.

Domestically, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise interest rates this year, providing fundamental support for the yen. However, uncertainty remains as to whether the BoJ will act in March or delay its decision.

Investors are now awaiting inflation data from Japan, which could provide more clarity on the central bank’s next move.

USD/JPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has reached its local downside target at 150.22. A consolidation range is expected to form at these lows. If the pair breaks upwards from this range, a corrective move towards 153.45 could begin. However, after completing this correction, a fifth wave of decline may develop, targeting 148.11. The MACD indicator confirms this outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and pointing strongly downward, indicating bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY completed a downward wave to 150.22 and is currently consolidating above this level. If the price breaks upwards, the first corrective wave could extend to 151.82. After reaching this level, a potential pullback to 150.98 may follow before the broader trend resumes. The Stochastic oscillator also supports this view, with its signal line below 20, preparing for a move towards 80, suggesting a short-term correction before further downside.

Conclusion

The Japanese yen continues to benefit from heightened global trade and geopolitical risks, along with expectations of further BoJ tightening. While a short-term correction towards 151.82 is possible, the overall trend remains bearish, with downside targets at 150.22 and potentially 148.11. Market focus will remain on Japan’s inflation data and further developments in US trade policy, both of which could shape the yen’s next major move.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

16 Feb

Japanese Yen Speculators continue to sharply boost their bullish positions

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 11th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (35,847 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (9,724 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (9,610 contracts), the British Pound (8,155 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,588 contracts), the Swiss Franc (3,513 contracts), the Brazilian Real (838 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (757 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-5,811 contracts), Bitcoin (-1,153 contracts) and with the New Zealand Dollar (-246 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Japanese Yen Speculators continue to raise the bullish position

Japanese 10-Year Bond Yields

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week, the story continues to be the continued push higher in bullish bets for the Japanese yen speculators.

Large speculative yen positions surged higher by +35,847 contracts and rose for a fourth consecutive week this week. The JPY position has now jumped by a total of +84,026 contracts over just the past four weeks. These gains have boosted the overall net bullish position to a total of +54,615 contracts this week and marks the most bullish level for the yen bets since October 1st, a span of 20 weeks.

Helping out the yen speculative position is the recent rate hike by the Bank of Japan in January from 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent. The yields on the Japanese 10-year bonds (image above) have also been spiking higher as well in recent weeks with the yields approaching 1.40 percent and reaching the highest levels in fifteen years (since 2010).

The yen exchange rate, despite the improving sentiment by the speculators and rising bond yields, remains near the bottom of its range from the past few years. The yen fell this week versus the US Dollar following four weeks of gains. The USDJPY currency pair trades near the 152.00 currently after hitting support right around the 151.00 early in the week. The pair did reverse lower after hitting resistance when challenging the 154.00 level in the middle of the week and ended at 152.82.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (95 percent) and the Brazilian Real (53 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the EuroFX (4 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Canadian Dollar (20 percent) and the Swiss Franc (22 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (38.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (36.8 percent)
EuroFX (4.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (34.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (31.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (95.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (81.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (22.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (20.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (16.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (29.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (22.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (6.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (6.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (36.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (35.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.3 percent)
Bitcoin (43.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (68.4 percent)

Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (25 percent) and the Brazilian Real (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (17 percent), the Canadian Dollar (11 percent) and the Australian Dollar (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the trends data.

The Swiss Franc (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-11 percent), Mexican Peso (-2 percent) and Bitcoin (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (17.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (16.7 percent)
EuroFX (2.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-10.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-13.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (25.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (6.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-12.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-28.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (11.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (7.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-5.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-1.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-3.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-2.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-3.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (25.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (19.9 percent)
Bitcoin (-1.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (20.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,296 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,539 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.8	21.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	63.3	6.2
– Net Position:	15,296	-16,423	1,127
– Gross Longs:	26,261	8,459	3,546
– Gross Shorts:	10,965	24,882	2,419
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	61.7	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.5	-16.1	-2.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -64,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,811 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,614 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	56.6	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.9	50.2	8.3
– Net Position:	-64,425	39,974	24,451
– Gross Longs:	165,594	352,514	76,243
– Gross Shorts:	230,019	312,540	51,792
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.2	94.8	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-3.8	13.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,323 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	50.5	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	42.6	18.1
– Net Position:	-3,168	16,480	-13,312
– Gross Longs:	69,087	105,189	24,316
– Gross Shorts:	72,255	88,709	37,628
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.7	67.9	34.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	12.2	-14.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 54,615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 35,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.7	27.0	18.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	52.0	13.3
– Net Position:	54,615	-68,154	13,539
– Gross Longs:	144,158	73,890	49,809
– Gross Shorts:	89,543	142,044	36,270
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.4	3.4	96.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.2	-28.6	35.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	84.1	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	29.3	25.3
– Net Position:	-38,745	53,757	-15,012
– Gross Longs:	5,553	82,536	9,859
– Gross Shorts:	44,298	28,779	24,871
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.4	87.1	15.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	9.2	1.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -150,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	84.2	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.6	34.5	11.3
– Net Position:	-150,834	162,597	-11,763
– Gross Longs:	17,911	275,360	25,075
– Gross Shorts:	168,745	112,763	36,838
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.4	83.1	9.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-10.9	4.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -65,585 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,724 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,309 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	63.2	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.0	27.3	16.2
– Net Position:	-65,585	70,444	-4,859
– Gross Longs:	40,368	123,991	26,941
– Gross Shorts:	105,953	53,547	31,800
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.8	71.9	36.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-4.8	5.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -246 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,090 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	82.1	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.5	23.2	7.1
– Net Position:	-49,336	51,398	-2,062
– Gross Longs:	11,218	71,567	4,103
– Gross Shorts:	60,554	20,169	6,165
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.2	93.5	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	-0.1	14.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,262 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.3	54.1	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	63.3	4.0
– Net Position:	15,850	-13,270	-2,580
– Gross Longs:	59,388	77,683	3,229
– Gross Shorts:	43,538	90,953	5,809
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	67.4	8.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	2.4	0.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 838 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 242 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.5	31.0	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.0	33.0	3.4
– Net Position:	1,080	-1,437	357
– Gross Longs:	41,738	22,118	2,795
– Gross Shorts:	40,658	23,555	2,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	47.9	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.3	-25.7	4.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,153 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.3	5.6	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.5	4.6	4.2
– Net Position:	-367	307	60
– Gross Longs:	26,802	1,834	1,447
– Gross Shorts:	27,169	1,527	1,387
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.3	71.1	14.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	8.8	-22.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

14 Feb

EUR/USD significantly rises as risks diminish

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD climbed to 1.0453 on Friday, reaching a two-week high and maintaining stability.

Key drivers behind EUR/USD movement

The euro’s gains accelerated after US President Donald Trump signed a memorandum to review retaliatory duties without immediately imposing new tariffs. This decision eased investor concerns, reducing fears of an aggressive US response that could have added to inflationary pressures. With no immediate trade retaliations, markets view inflation risks as stabilising, reducing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Additionally, geopolitical tensions appear to be easing, lowering the risk premium in the currency market and further supporting EUR/USD.

However, doubts remain regarding the monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). While the Fed continues to be cautious, showing little urgency to cut interest rates, the ECB is actively considering rate cuts. This policy mismatch is expected to weigh on the euro in the long term.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD extended its growth wave towards 1.0466 before forming a consolidation range below this level. The pair has now broken downward from this range, opening the potential for a decline towards 1.0372. Once this target is reached, a corrective move towards 1.0416 is likely. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line at high levels, suggesting an imminent pullback to lower lows.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD completed its growth wave to 1.0466 and is now consolidating in a narrow range. A downward breakout is expected, initially targeting 1.0420, followed by a potential correction towards 1.0444. In the longer term, another downward wave will likely develop, targeting 1.0394 and extending towards 1.0372. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this bearish outlook, with its signal line positioned below 50 and trending towards 20, indicating growing downside pressure.

Conclusion

While EUR/USD has gained on reduced trade war risks and stabilising inflation fears, the pair is now facing a short-term correction. The monetary policy divergence between the Fed and ECB remains a key factor that could limit further upside for the euro. Technically, a pullback towards 1.0372 is likely in the short term, with potential corrective bounces towards 1.0416 and 1.0444 before the next downward wave. Market participants will continue monitoring US trade policy updates and Fed rate expectations for further direction.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 Feb

The pound’s rally stalls as investors await fresh economic data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

GBP/USD is consolidating around 1.2447 on Wednesday as traders hold back, awaiting key UK economic data releases later this week.

Key factors influencing GBP/USD

Earlier this week, the British pound faced pressure after Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann shifted to a more dovish stance. She stated that weak domestic demand reduces inflation risks, marking a notable change from her previously hawkish position.

Mann now believes consumer spending is slowing, limiting businesses’ ability to raise prices, and contributing to a faster-than-expected decline in inflationary pressures.

The BoE expects inflation to rise to 3.7% by the end of 2025, up from 2.5% in December 2024. Meanwhile, UK GDP growth forecasts have been lowered to 0.75% for 2025, down from the earlier estimate of 1.5%.

Investors are now awaiting key UK macroeconomic data, including:

December GDP estimate

Preliminary Q4 2024 economic growth data

End-of-year industrial production figures

Externally, the pound is also under pressure from a stronger US dollar. However, compared to other major currencies, GBP remains relatively stable.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD declined to 1.2332, followed by a correction to 1.2458. After reaching this level, a new downside wave is expected towards 1.2279. A narrow consolidation range is likely to form around this level. If the price breaks below this range, the next targets will be 1.2100 and 1.2020, signalling a continued bearish trend. The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and pointing downward, indicating a continuation of the downtrend.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD completed a correction to 1.2458. The market is now expected to resume its downward movement towards 1.2279. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 80 and trending sharply downwards towards 20, suggesting increasing bearish momentum.

Conclusion

GBP/USD is in a consolidation phase, with market participants awaiting key UK economic data. Weakening domestic demand and shifting expectations regarding the Bank of England’s (BOE) policy are weighing on the pound, while external pressure from a stronger USD adds to its downside risks. Technically, further declines are expected towards 1.2279, with the potential for deeper losses to 1.2100 and 1.2020 if the economic data disappoints. Market focus remains on upcoming UK macroeconomic releases, which will determine the next significant move for GBP/USD.

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