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Archive for Forex and Currency News

04 Apr

USD/JPY collapses to a 6-month low: safe-haven assets in demand

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

USD/JPY is at a six-month low near 145.57 on Friday after posting a 2% gain in the previous session.

Key factors driving the USD/JPY movement

US President Donald Trump’s sweeping duties have fuelled demand for safe-haven assets. This week, Trump announced a 10% base tariff on all imports, set to take effect on 5 April. Around 60 countries are expected to face higher duties, including China (54% tariff), the EU (20%), Japan (24%), India (27%) and Vietnam (46%).

The market reacted quickly and powerfully. A new wave of tariff measures signals potentially uncontained inflation and sluggish global GDP growth. At the same time, demand increased across the full spectrum of safe-haven assets, including the yen.

Statistics from Japan showed that personal spending fell less than expected in February, suggesting some resilience in the economy.

The 2025 baseline scenario suggests that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this year, although uncertainty surrounding global trade and domestic economic conditions casts a shadow over the outlook.

Technical outlook: USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, the USD/JPY pair has breached the 147.60 level to the downside and continues to form a wave towards the 144.76 level. The target is local. After reaching it, a correction to 147.60 is possible. Once the correction is complete, a further wave down to 144.12 is likely. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is below the zero level and is pointing sharply downwards.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has formed a consolidation range around 147.60. Following the downside breakout, the development of the third wave is underway. The target is at 144.76. Once this is reached, a corrective wave is likely. The first correction target is at 146.06. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is below 50 and heading directly towards 20.

Conclusion

With trade war fears escalating and demand for safe-haven assets surging, USD/JPY remains under pressure. Technical indicators suggest further downside, though a short-term correction is possible. Traders should monitor 144.76 as the next key support, with BoJ policy signals and global trade developments likely to determine the pair’s next significant move.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

 

Financial News Forex and Currency News
03 Apr

GBP/USD Hits 21-Week High: The Pound Outperforms Its Peers

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The GBP/USD pair climbed to 1.3064 on Thursday, marking a 2.46% gain over the past four weeks and a 2.87% increase against the US dollar over the last 12 months. The British pound continues to strengthen, outperforming many of its major counterparts.

Key factors driving the GBP/USD rally

The UK is closely monitoring developments in US tariffs, which could have significant implications for its economy. While the new tariffs potentially threaten global trade, the UK remains in a relatively favourable position compared to the EU, Canada, China, and Mexico.

Reasons for the UK’s advantage:

  • The US baseline tariff rate for the UK is just 10% – the lowest among major US trading partners
  • The UK’s trade relationship with the US is relatively balanced, with a smaller share of reciprocal trade, reducing immediate risks

However, uncertainty looms. Policymakers anticipate a possible reversal of US tariffs, but the broader impact remains unpredictable, whether on inflation, global GDP, or trade dynamics.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD 

H4 chart perspective

  • The pair has broken through 1.2988, surging towards 1.3095
  • A pullback to retest 1.2988 (now acting as support) could occur before another upward push towards 1.3103.
  • MACD confirmation: the signal line remains above zero and is trending upwards, supporting bullish momentum

H1 chart perspective

  • After consolidating around 1.2988, the pair broke higher, targeting 1.3095
  • Once this level is reached, a correction back to 1.2988 could follow
  • Stochastic indicator: the signal line is above 80 but turning downwards, suggesting a potential near-term exhaustion.

Conclusion

The pound’s resilience against the dollar reflects both fundamental strength and technical momentum. While the UK benefits from a less exposed trade stance, traders should watch tariff developments and key technical levels to gauge the next significant move.

interest rate decisions.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

 

Financial News Forex and Currency News
02 Apr

EUR/USD Declines as Markets Await Signals of a Renewed Trade War

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The EUR/USD pair continues its gradual decline, erasing its recent technical rebound and retreating to 1.0795. Traders remain cautious as key economic and political developments loom.

Key factors driving the EUR/USD movement

Today (2 April) marks a critical date for global markets as new US tariffs on trading partners take effect. Investors are closely watching for President Donald Trump’s final decision, which could escalate trade tensions.

Earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that these tariffs could serve as leverage, pushing partner countries to negotiate lower duties. Meanwhile, recent US economic data has added to the uncertainty:

  • Manufacturing activity contracted in March (the first decline of 2025)
  • Prices increased for the second consecutive month, reflecting tariff-driven inflationary pressures
  • Job openings declined in February, though layoffs remained low, indicating a potential cooling in the labour market

Market focus now shifts to Wednesday’s ADP employment report and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which will shape expectations for the Fed’s next interest rate decisions.

Technical outlook: EUR/USD

H4 chart analysis

  • The pair declined to 1.0784 before correcting to 1.0825
  • The next likely move is a continued downward trend towards 1.0695 (first target)
  • A pullback to 1.0825 (testing from below) may follow (second target)
  • MACD confirmation: the signal line remains below zero, pointing sharply downward and supporting further bearish momentum

H1 chart analysis

  • The pair is forming the fifth leg of a downward wave, targeting 1.0695
  • A short-term decline toward 1.0715 is expected today, possibly followed by a correction to 1.0772
  • Stochastic oscillator confirmation: the signal line is below 50 and trending downward towards 20, reinforcing bearish momentum

 

Conclusion

With trade war risks resurfacing and mixed US economic signals, the EUR/USD remains under pressure. A break below 1.0695 could open the door for deeper declines, while a rebound above 1.0825 may signal temporary relief. Traders should monitor US employment data and trade policy updates for fresh directional cues.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
30 Mar

Speculators add to Japanese & European Bets while US Dollar & Commodity Currencies Bets Slide

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound Sterling (14,881 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (7,048 contracts), the Euro (6,100 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,087 contracts), the Japanese Yen (2,412 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (280 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-6,997 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,218 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,123 contracts), Bitcoin (-662 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-372 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

RoundUp: Speculators continued to add to Japanese & European currencies while US Dollar & Commodity currencies see lower bets

The speculative landscape for the currency futures this week continued to be a mixed bag with some major currencies seeing sentiment gains versus the US Dollar while others continued to see weak sentiment levels persist.

The US Dollar Index futures saw slightly higher speculator contracts this week with a small gain of 280 contracts. But overall, the US Dollar Index bets have fallen in three out of the past five weeks and by a total of -9,300 contracts over these past five weeks, bringing the total bullish position to just +7,468 contracts (down by more than 50% of 3 weeks ago). The Dollar Index price has remained in a short-term downtrend that started in the new year and has taken the price from over 109.00 to the current level of approximately 104.00. The 102.50 and the very significant level of 100.00 still linger below as major support barriers if the downtrend continues.

The Euro speculator positions have continued to see positive sentiment with gains in six straight weeks and the overall position has risen by +129,950 contracts in the last six weeks through Tuesday. The Euro standing for speculators is at the highest level since September after a 20-week spell in bearish territory from October to early March. The Euro futures price trades around the 1.0825 level currently, up from around the 1.0250 levels to end 2024 but would need to breakthrough the tough 1.1250 resistance to see a strong breakout to the upside and perhaps, a new Euro bull market.

The British pound sterling led the currencies in bullish bets on the week and overall, the GBP speculator positions have risen for eight straight weeks through Tuesday. This has brought the overall spec standing to a +44,283 contract bullish position – the highest since November. The GBP futures price has been on a bullish run since the beginning of the new year and is currently right at a significant overhead resistance level of 1.3000. The test of this level will determine the next path for the GBP as a breakthrough above 1.3000 could see a retest of the 2024 high (just below 1.3500) or we could see a breakdown and testing of lower levels (200-weekly ma at 1.2715 & previous support around 1.2500-1.2650).

The Japanese yen speculators boosted their bets this week for the ninth time out of the past ten weeks with a total +154,787 contract gain over that time. This week’s spec level is the third highest level on record at a total of +125,376 contracts for the yen and demonstrates how bullish speculators are on the currency. However, it remains to be seen if this level of sentiment can propel the JPY to higher price levels. The yen remains in a historically weak position versus the US Dollar as the USDJPY trades right around the 150.00 level and the currency pair has been bid up relatively quickly anytime there is a dip below this threshold. There is going to need a sustained push below the 150.00 level to get traction on a yen bullish case.

The Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars (commodity currencies) are all in similar situations currently in terms of speculator positioning. All three sport strength scores (current levels compared to last 3-years of spec bets) of 30 or under with the Canadian dollar at 30, Australian at 21 and the New Zealand currency at 16. Recently, the New Zealand dollar speculator positions fell to an all-time record low of -55,765 contracts on March 4th. Perhaps, the worst of the sentiment is over for these currencies in this down cycle but we would need to see a sustained turning of the bearish positions in conjunction with price trends coming out of the deep downtrends all three currencies are in now.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (97 percent) and the Brazilian Real (91 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (77 percent), the Mexican Peso (59 percent) and the British Pound (56 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (21 percent), the US Dollar Index (22 percent) and the Swiss Franc (25 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (22.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (21.6 percent)
EuroFX (53.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (51.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (56.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (49.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (97.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (96.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (24.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (31.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (29.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (26.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (21.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (26.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (16.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (17.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (58.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (57.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (90.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (90.9 percent)
Bitcoin (77.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (91.5 percent)

EuroFX & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the EuroFX (49 percent) and the Brazilian Real (37 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. Bitcoin (34 percent), the Japanese Yen (22 percent) and the Mexican Peso (22 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-16.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-15.2 percent)
EuroFX (49.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (44.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (21.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (18.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (22.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (32.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (2.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (10.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (3.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (22.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (22.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (37.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (38.5 percent)
Bitcoin (33.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (23.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,188 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:77.74.710.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.131.98.5
– Net Position:7,468-7,945477
– Gross Longs:22,6991,3852,953
– Gross Shorts:15,2319,3302,476
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.278.431.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.216.7-7.5

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 65,525 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.255.812.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.570.87.0
– Net Position:65,525-100,31634,791
– Gross Longs:189,796375,75381,743
– Gross Shorts:124,271476,06946,952
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.747.050.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:49.5-47.823.0

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 44,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.025.516.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.952.013.5
– Net Position:44,283-50,6826,399
– Gross Longs:109,01648,84332,226
– Gross Shorts:64,73399,52525,827
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.5 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.041.275.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.3-26.741.4

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 125,376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,412 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 122,964 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.830.614.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.675.311.4
– Net Position:125,376-135,74010,364
– Gross Longs:160,47492,99944,965
– Gross Shorts:35,098228,73934,601
– Long to Short Ratio:4.6 to 10.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.33.986.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.2-19.7-8.4

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -37,593 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,375 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.982.612.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.728.822.2
– Net Position:-37,59346,102-8,509
– Gross Longs:4,17870,83010,519
– Gross Shorts:41,77124,72819,028
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 12.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.774.642.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.3-12.527.6

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -129,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.483.58.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.533.612.5
– Net Position:-129,534140,196-10,662
– Gross Longs:17,948234,77424,617
– Gross Shorts:147,48294,57835,279
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 12.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.973.812.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.5-9.22.8

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -77,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,997 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.666.312.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:58.620.615.7
– Net Position:-77,44682,329-4,883
– Gross Longs:28,124119,38123,317
– Gross Shorts:105,57037,05228,200
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.379.036.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.47.1-0.1

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -41,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.378.55.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:66.926.46.5
– Net Position:-41,56742,865-1,298
– Gross Longs:13,43564,6174,082
– Gross Shorts:55,00221,7525,380
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.482.336.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.0-9.69.7

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 59,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,952 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:65.128.03.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.170.73.4
– Net Position:59,039-58,694-345
– Gross Longs:89,47738,5564,376
– Gross Shorts:30,43897,2504,721
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.944.020.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.0-23.312.4

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 40,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:64.227.03.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.266.01.2
– Net Position:40,349-42,5532,204
– Gross Longs:70,03029,4113,556
– Gross Shorts:29,68171,9641,352
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.4 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.69.033.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:37.4-38.710.4

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,179 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -662 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,841 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:84.03.34.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:79.97.24.3
– Net Position:1,179-1,150-29
– Gross Longs:24,3769451,207
– Gross Shorts:23,1972,0951,236
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.034.713.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.7-36.3-6.2

 

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COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
28 Mar

Week Ahead: EURUSD braces for Trump tariffs, EU inflation, US jobs report

By ForexTime 

  • EURUSD up over 4% so far in March 2025; set for biggest monthly gain since Nov. 2022
  • Apr 1: Eurozone’s March CPI could offer mixed readings for EURUSD
  • Apr 2: Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs could hurt US economy and USD
  • Apr 4: US NFP report, Chair Powell’s speech may offer clues on next Fed rate cut
  • Bloomberg FX model: 73.7% chance EURUSD trades between 1.0650 – 1.0934 next week

 

The world’s most-traded FX pair is set for its biggest monthly gain in over 2 years!

At the time of writing, EURUSD is up about 4.08% so far in March 2025.

If it holds around these levels, that would the EURUSD’s biggest 1-month gain since the 5.3% advance in November 2022.

Why did EURUSD rise in March 2025?

Two main reasons:

1) Weaker USD: Markets are worried that President Trump’s tariffs would actually hurt US economic growth. 

Against such a dimmer outlook, the US dollar has weakened against almost all of its G10 peers (except against the Japanese Yen) in March 2025.

 

2) Historic change to Germany government spending: Earlier this month, Europe’s largest economy amended its constitution to get rid of its so-called “debt brake”. 

This “historic” decision is set to unleash hundreds of billions of euros on defense and infrastructure spending.

With more government spending for Europe’s largest economy, that has sweetened the Eurozone’s economic outlook, hence the strengthening euro.

NOTE: The euro has also strengthened against almost all its G10 peers (except the Swedish Krona and the Norwegian Krone) so far in March 2025.

EUR strengthened against most G10 peers in March 2025

 

With all that in mind …

Can EURUSD extend its month-to-date (March 2025) gains into Q2 2025?

This question will be especially pertinent as we enter a week filled with these major events on the global economic calendar:

Sunday, March 30

  • Europe, UK goes into Daylight Savings Time

Monday, March 31

  • JPY: Japan February industrial production, retail sales
  • AU200 index: March Melbourne institute inflation
  • CNH: China March PMIs
  • THB: Thailand February external trade
  • GER40 index: Germany March CPI; February retail sales

Tuesday, April 1

  • JP225 index: Japan February jobless rate; 1Q Tankan index
  • AUD: RBA rate decision; February retail sales
  • CN50 index: China March manufacturing PMI
  • EUR: Eurozone March CPI; February unemployment
  • US30 index: US March ISM manufacturing

Wednesday, April 2

  • USDInd: Trump’s “Liberation Day” – more US tariffs incoming?

Thursday, April 3

  • AUD: Australia February trade balance
  • CN50 index: China March services PMI
  • EU50 index: Eurozone February PPI; ECB meeting minutes
  • RUS2000 index: US initial weekly jobless claims; ISM services index; speech by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
  • US500 index: 25% US tariffs on auto imports kick in

Friday, April 4

  • SG20 index: Singapore February retail sales
  • GER40 index: Germany March construction PMI; February factory orders
  • CAD: Canada March unemployment rate
  • US500 index: US March nonfarm payrolls
  • USDInd: Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell

 

From the list above, we highlight 4 specific events that could trigger massive reactions in the world’s most-traded FX pair:

  • Tuesday, April 1st: Eurozone March consumer price index (CPI)

Here’s what economists predict for this important set of inflation data:

  • Headline CPI year-on-year (March 2025 vs. March 2024): 2.3%
    If so, this would match February’s 2.3% year-on-year figure.
  • Headline CPI month-on-month (March 2025 vs. February 2025): 0.6%
    If so, this would be notably higher than February’s 0.4% month-on-month figure.
  • Core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) year-on-year: 2.5%
    If so, this would be a slight easing from February’s 2.6% core year-on-year figure.

Lower-than-expected CPI prints which encourages more rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) could weaken EURUSD.

 

 

  • Wednesday, April 2nd: “Liberation Day” – more US tariffs?

April 2nd is the deadline for when US President Donald Trump intends to roll out “reciprocal” tariffs, which suggests an “eye-for-an-eye” approach.

This essentially points to the raising of US tariffs to fix trade imbalances against its major trading partners, including the Eurozone.

Markets initially believed that these “reciprocal tariffs” would actually slow down US economic growth, hence the US dollar’s steep drop in early March.

More recently, markets hope that Trump’s next tariff salvo may not be as damaging as initially feared.  Hence, the euro has weakened against the US dollar in 7 out of the past 8 daily trading sessions.

There is still much uncertainty about what this major tariff announcement will look like, with markets largely adopting a “wait and see mode”.

Ultimately, if the market’s worst-case-scenario is confirmed, that could further dent the US dollar while adding to EURUSD’s gains from March 2025.

 

 

  • Friday, April 4th: US March nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

Here’s what economists predict for this closely-watched jobs report:

  • Headline NFP figure: 135,000 (new jobs added to US labour market)

If so, this would be lower than February’s 151,000 headline NFP figure.

  • Unemployment rate: 4.1%

If so, this would match February’s unemployment rate

  • Average hourly earnings month-on-month (March 2025 vs. Feb 2025): 0.3%

If so, this would match February’s figure.

Stronger-than-expected US jobs data, which points to resilience in the world’s largest economy, should bolster the US dollar and drag EURUSD lower.

 

  • Friday, April 4th: Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell

Just 3 hours after the US jobs report’s release, the Chair of the Federal Reserve – the US central bak – is set to share his economic outlook.

Markets will be eager to find out his take not just on the latest NFP numbers, but also what President Trump’s tariff announcements earlier in the week would mean for the resilience of the US economy.

A weakening US jobs market that faces more damage from tariffs could prompt the Fed to cut rates sooner than expected – a weaker USD scenario.

At the time of writing, markets are forecasting a:

  • 54% chance (almost evenly split) that the Fed will cut its benchmark rates by another 75-basis points (3 more rate cuts, 25-bps per FOMC meeting) by end-2025.
  • 70% chance that the next Fed rate cut will happen at the June FOMC meeting.

 

Looking at the charts …

At the time of writing, EURUSD is trading just below the big, round 1.08000 number, around its 21-day simple moving average (SMA).

Note also that EURUSD earlier this week found crucial support at its 200-day SMA.

EURUSD in "wait and see" mode around 1.080 ahead of more US tariffs

 

Bloomberg’s FX model currently predicts a 74% chance that EURUSD will trade between 1.0650 – 1.0934 over the coming week.

 

Potential Scenarios:

  • EURUSD could weaken below its 200-day SMA and towards 1.0650 if we see:

    – weaker-than-expected Eurozone CPI which paves way for ECB rate cuts

    – more US trade tariffs on EU, but not as damaging on the US economy

    – stronger-than-expected US jobs report and a hawkish Chair Powell that pushes back on the next Fed rate cut

 

  • EURUSD could revisit its latest cycle high around 1.094 or above if we see:

    – stronger-than-expected Eurozone CPI which delays ECB rate cuts

    – reciprocal US trade tariffs that confirm market’s worst-case fears by hurting the US economy and dollar

    – weaker-than-expected US jobs report and a dovish Chair Powell that opens the door for a sooner-than-June Fed rate cut

     

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions
28 Mar

The Pound Stands Strong Amid Global Trade Tensions

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The GBP/USD pair is consolidating around 1.2941 this Friday as the British pound continues to outperform its peers. Unlike other major currencies, the pound has remained relatively insulated from escalating global trade tensions, giving it a distinct advantage.

Why the pound is outperforming

The UK’s distance from ongoing trade wars has shielded sterling from the worst volatility triggered by US tariff policies. While other economies brace for the impact of trade restrictions, the UK, at least in theory, faces fewer immediate risks from President Trump’s protectionist measures.

Adding to sterling’s resilience is the fiscal plan of UK Treasury Chief Rachel Reeves, which outlines spending reductions totalling 14 billion GBP. This move could significantly boost the economy’s fiscal potential, creating a 10 billion GBP reserve for future spending needs. As a result, the government may reduce bond issuance, easing pressure on public finances.

Mid-week, the pound dipped slightly following the release of UK inflation figures. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month in February, rebounding from a -0.1% decline in January. On an annual basis, inflation eased to 2.8% (down from 3.0%), likely due to seasonal energy demand during the colder months. However, the market reaction was short-lived, suggesting sustained confidence in the pound’s strength.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD

H4 Chart: The pair is consolidating near 1.2934, with a potential upward extension towards 1.2998. A subsequent downward wave towards 1.2784 remains possible, supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains below zero but is trending upward.

H1 Chart: After hitting a local high at 1.2970, a pullback towards 1.2934 (testing support from above) is likely. A rebound towards 1.2998 could follow before a potential decline to 1.2888. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downward towards 20.

 

Conclusion

While short-term fluctuations persist, the pound’s resilience, supported by favourable fiscal policies and its detachment from global trade conflicts, positions it as a standout performer. Traders should monitor key technical levels for potential breakouts or reversals in the coming sessions.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
27 Mar

EUR/USD Faces Further Decline Amid Market Jitters and Trump’s Tariff Threat

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.0778 on Thursday, staging a modest correction but remaining under pressure amid deteriorating market sentiment.

Key drivers weighing on EUR/USD

The latest sell-off is driven by heightened trade war fears. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars and light trucks, set to take effect on 2 April. The move, seen as retaliation against foreign tariffs on US goods, escalates trade tensions. Markets view this as a major risk, with potential consequences including slower US economic growth and higher inflation.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, fresh economic data revealed:

  • US consumer confidence plunged to a four-year low
  • Core capital goods orders (excluding defence and aircraft) declined, breaking a three-month growth streak – a worrying sign for business investment

Investors now await Friday’s Core PCE Price Index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – and the revised US Q4 2024 GDP estimate, which could set near-term market direction.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market completed a downward move to 1.0733. A correction towards 1.0855 is likely today. Once this correction ends, a new decline towards 1.0707 may begin. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator: its signal line is below zero and pointing downward to new lows.

On the H1 EUR/USD chart, the market has formed a consolidation range around the level of 1.0826 before breaking lower to 1.0733. This move has nearly met its local downside target. Today, a corrective pullback towards 1.0826 (testing from below) is possible. Once this correction ends, a renewed decline towards 1.0700 could unfold. This move is viewed as the first wave of a broader downtrend. If this level is reached, another bounce towards 1.0826 cannot be ruled out. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator: its signal line is above 80 and preparing to drop towards 20.

 

Conclusion

With trade war risks weighing on sentiment and technical indicators pointing to continued downside, EUR/USD could test 1.0700 in the coming sessions. Traders should monitor US inflation data and GDP revisions for confirmation of the next major move.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
26 Mar

USD/JPY Rises Again: Yen Lacks Support as Bulls Take Control

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair climbed to 150.37 on Wednesday, indicating a fading correction from the previous session as trading volumes declined.

Key drivers behind the USD/JPY surge

Investors are shunning risk ahead of potential US retaliatory tariffs, which could weigh on Japanese exports – a key pillar of the economy. Meanwhile, demand for risk assets, including equities and commodities, has further eroded support for the safe-haven yen.

The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) January meeting minutes, released earlier, revealed policymakers’ willingness to consider further rate hikes, contingent on wage growth and inflation trends. One member even suggested rates could reach 1% in the second half of fiscal 2025.

However, the BoJ’s decision in March to hold rates at 0.5% reinforced its cautious stance, with officials wary of global economic risks, particularly potential US trade measures. Given the central bank’s reluctance to tighten policy soon, the yen lacks a key bullish catalyst.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market has formed a growth wave structure up to 150.93. After reaching this target, a pullback to 148.73 is possible, effectively marking the consolidation range at the wave’s peak. A breakout to the upside would indicate a continuation of the trend towards 153.60. This is a local target, after which a correction to 151.20 cannot be ruled out. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD indicator: its signal line remains above zero and has exited the histogram zone. A decline towards the zero line is expected.

On the H1 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a correction up to 149.30. Once this pullback is complete, a new growth wave towards 150.97 may begin. This is also a local target. Technically, the Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, as its signal line is above 80 and preparing to decline towards 20.

 

Conclusion

With the BoJ maintaining a dovish stance and risk sentiment weighing on the yen, USD/JPY bulls remain in control. Traders should watch for a breakout above 150.93 to confirm further upside, while corrections could offer short-term pullback opportunities.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
21 Mar

Week Ahead: GBPUSD set for end March mayhem?

By ForexTime 

  • GBPUSD ↑ almost 3% MTD
  • Wednesday = UK Spring Statement + UK CPI
  • Over past year UK CPI triggered moves of ↑ 0.5% & ↓ 0.3%
  • Across the Atlantic = Fed speeches + US PCE report 
  • Bloomberg FX model: GBPUSD has 75% of trading within 1.2799 – 1.3081 over 1-week period

The week ahead is stacked with high-impact data, political events and speeches by numerous policymakers:

 

Sunday, 23rd March

  • China Development Forum 2025 in Beijing

     

Monday, 24th  March 

  • CHINAH: BYD earnings
  • TWN: Taiwan jobless rate
  • GER40: Germany HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMI
  • GBP: UK S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI, BoE Governor Bailey speech
  • US500: US S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI, Atlanta Fed Bostic speech

     

Tuesday, 25th  March 

  • Boao Forum for Asia – dubbed “China’s Davos”
  • GER40: Germany IFO business climate
  • MXN: Mexico retail sales, international reserves
  • TWN: Taiwan industrial production
  • RUS2000: US new home sales, Conference Board consumer confidence, New York Fed Williams speech

     

Wednesday, 26th  March 

  • AUD: Australia CPI
  • CAD: BoC meeting minutes
  • SG20: Singapore industrial production
  • GBP: UK CPI, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers “spring statement”
  • US500: CBO releases estimate of when US debt will be reached, St. Louis Fed Musalem speech
  • World Economic Forum symposium in Hong Kong

     

Thursday, 27th March 

  • MXN: Mexico trade, rate decision
  • USDInd: US revised 4Q GDP, initial jobless claims, Richmond Fed Barkin speech

     

Friday, 28th March 

  • EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
  • GER40: Germany unemployment
  • JPY: Japan Tokyo CPI
  • GBP: UK Q4 GDP (final), retail sales
  • USDInd: US February PCE report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Atlanta Fed Bostic speech

 

GBPUSD could be set for a week of mayhem due to economic and political forces! 

The major currency pair has struggled to push beyond 1.30 despite the BoE’s slightly hawkish vote split on rates. 

Nevertheless, prices have jumped as much as 7.5% from the mid-January low with month-to-date gains up almost 3%. 

GBPUSD W12

 

Here are 4 things to keep an eye on:

 

1 – UK Spring Statement

On Wednesday 26th March, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will present the Spring Statement to Parliament.

Investors will pay close details on key updates concerning the country’s finances, and government plans for tax and public spending. The UK’s growth forecast is set for a major downgrade with Reeves expected to announce huge spending cuts over tax rises. This event will certainly shape sentiment toward the UK economy and British Pound.

  • Sterling is likely to sink if the Spring budget dents optimism over the UK economy and fuels bets around lower UK interest rates.
  • Should the Spring budget soothe investor fears over the UK’s outlook, the pound may rise. 

 

2 – BoE Bailey Speech + UK February CPI

Just days after the BoE voted to leave rates unchanged, BoE governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak on the UK economy on Monday 24th March. Any fresh insight offered on future policy moves may move the Pound.

But the real market mover for Sterling could be the latest UK inflation figures published on Wednesday 26th March. Signs of cooling price pressures may impact BoE cut bets. 

Annual inflation is expected to cool 2.9% from 3.0%, while the monthly print is seen rising 0.5% from -0.1%.

Over the past 12 months, the UK CPI has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.5% or declines of 0.3% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Note: Beyond the CPI report, the PMI report on Monday and retail sales figures on Friday may provide more insight into the health of the UK economy. Should they disappoint, this could weaken the Pound. The same is true vice-versa.

 

3- US February PCE report + Fed speeches

Across the Atlantic, a string of speeches by Federal Reserve officials could provide some fresh insight into the Fed’s thinking on rates.

But the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure on Friday 28th March may sway rate cut bets. 

In the March policy meeting, Powell sought to calm fears over Trump’s tariffs suggesting any rise in prices would be “transitory”. So, this may place extra focus on US inflation reports moving forward, leading to increased market sensitivity.

The PCE core deflator is expected to remain unchanged at 0.3% MoM but rise 2.7% from 2.6% annually. Ultimately signs of sticky price pressures may push back Fed cut bets.

Over the past 12 months, the US PCE report has triggered upside moves as much as 0.6% or declines of 0.8% in a 6-hour window post-release. 

Note: It’s not only the PCE data that move the USD, PMIs, consumer confidence data and initial jobless figures may result in price swings.

 

4- Technical forces

The GBPUSD is back within a range on the daily charts with support at 1.2900 and resistance at 1.3000. Despite respecting a bullish channel, the RSI has been overbought since early March. 

  • A breakout above 1.3000 may open a path toward 1.3100.
  • A breakdown below 1.2900 could trigger a decline toward 1.2870 and the 200-day SMA at 1.2800. 
gbpusd

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 75% chance that GBPUSD will trade within the 1.2799 – 1.3081 range, using current levels as a base, over the next one-week period.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
21 Mar

EURUSD Loses Momentum as Fed Bolsters the US Dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The EUR/USD pair is trending downward, approaching 1.0829 on Friday as investors evaluate the latest developments in US Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Key drivers behind EUR/USD movement

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve held its current interest rate and overall monetary policy framework unchanged. However, the central bank signalled that two rate cuts could be expected later this year. In its commentary, the Fed highlighted growing risks to economic recovery, employment stability, and inflation trends.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed concerns about the inflationary impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, describing them as temporary. Powell also emphasised that the Fed would not rush into further rate cuts, reinforcing a cautious approach to monetary easing.

Adding to market uncertainty, Trump’s retaliatory tariffs – targeting countries that have imposed duties on US goods – are set to take effect on 2 April. Over the past 24 hours, the US dollar has strengthened amid fears of slowing global economic growth and escalating trade tensions. These factors have reinforced risk-averse sentiment among investors.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD declined to 1.0815, followed by a correction to 1.0860. A further decline towards 1.0765 is highly likely, with this level remaining the primary target. The MACD indicator supports this scenario. Its signal line is below zero, sloping sharply downward, indicating potential new lows.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD broke through the 1.0864 level and formed a bearish wave structure, reaching 1.0815. Today, a corrective move towards 1.0860 (testing from below) is likely. Once this correction concludes, the pair could resume its downward trajectory, targeting 1.0811. This movement marks the third wave of the downtrend. After reaching this level, another retracement towards 1.0864 is possible. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line below 20 and trending upward towards the 50 level.

 

Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure as the Fed’s cautious stance and global trade tensions bolster the US dollar. Technical indicators suggest further downside potential, with key support levels at 1.0765 and 1.0811. Investors should monitor upcoming economic data and trade developments for additional insights into the pair’s direction.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

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