By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.79% (weekly result +3.62%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.20% (weekly result +4.70%). The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher on Friday by 1.29% (weekly result +6.40%).

The outlook for the US economy in the near future will be closely tied to the dynamics of relations between the United States and Iran. Donald Trump’s statement that Tehran agreed to suspend its nuclear program and halt attacks in the Strait of Hormuz became a powerful signal for markets, strengthening hopes for a rapid stabilization of energy prices. In monetary policy, attention will focus on the congressional testimony of Kevin Warsh, the nominee for the position of Federal Reserve Chair. His stance on the optimal size of the Fed’s balance sheet may become a key benchmark for the bond market.

On Friday, the Canadian dollar (CAD) fell to 1.36 per US dollar. The main driver of the decline was the sharp drop in global oil prices, which plunged 12% to 82 dollars. The rapid correction in the energy market occurred after official confirmation that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open for commercial shipping. For Canada, as a major commodity exporter, such a decline in export revenues traditionally results in a weaker national currency. Additional pressure on the loonie came from shifting market expectations regarding monetary policy. De‑escalation of the Middle East conflict eased fears of an inflation shock, prompting investors to revise their predictions towards an earlier rate cut by the Bank of Canada.

Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 2.27% (weekly +4.84%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.97% (weekly +3.02%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 2.18% (weekly +2.66%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed the session up 0.73% (weekly +0.62%). The catalyst for such strong optimism was Tehran’s official announcement of the full resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Investors interpreted this as real confirmation of Donald Trump’s statement that the active phase of the conflict is nearing its end, significantly reducing the geopolitical risk premium.

This week, the Eurozone will focus on preliminary PMI business‑activity indices for the Eurozone, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Analysts expect a broad decline in indicators, pointing to a cooling business cycle and a possible shift toward recessionary scenarios in both manufacturing and services. Germany’s leading indicators are of particular concern. The ZEW economic sentiment index is expected to fall to a yearly low, while the Ifo Business Climate Index is projected to hit its weakest level since February 2025. These data, along with the upcoming producer‑price index (PPI), may increase pressure on the ECB to reconsider its tight monetary policy.

On Friday, the energy market experienced a massive collapse: WTI crude futures plunged more than 10%, falling below 84 dollars per barrel. This drop pushed prices to a five‑week low and was a direct reaction to the foreign minister’s statement that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open to commercial vessels during the ceasefire, effectively removing the threat of a global energy collapse that had weighed on the market for the past month and a half. But on Monday at the open, oil prices surged again. Panic was triggered by reports that US Navy forces seized an Iranian cargo ship by force. The vessel ignored an order to stop while exiting the strait, leading to an armed clash. In response, Iran struck vessels in the region and officially declared the restoration of full control over the Strait of Hormuz.

The silver (XNG) market showed impressive dynamics: prices jumped 5%, reaching 82 dollars per ounce. Investors enthusiastically welcomed the news that the Strait of Hormuz would remain fully open to commercial vessels during the ten‑day ceasefire. However, the situation remains highly uncertain. Donald Trump confirmed that the US naval blockade will remain in place until a final peace agreement is signed, maintaining a certain risk premium in the market.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 3.64% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 2.20%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed the week up 1.76%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.39%.

The PBOC officially confirmed the preservation of benchmark lending rates (LPR) at current levels. This decision marked the eleventh consecutive maintenance of the status quo, fully in line with analysts’ expectations. The Chinese regulator continues to follow a policy of “moderate easing,” balancing the need to support domestic growth with the need to protect the national currency from excessive volatility amid global instability.

This week in monetary policy, decisions by Bank Indonesia and the Central Bank of the Philippines will come into focus. Against the backdrop of global volatility and regional inflation dynamics, their actions will serve as an important signal for investors regarding the resilience of emerging‑market currencies.